@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.161.1 → 0.170.0

package/dist/store-tool-spans-B9o6tU8f.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"store-tool-spans-B9o6tU8f.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/trace/capture-fetch.ts","../src/trace/otlp-encoding.ts","../src/trace/wire-ids.ts","../src/trace/otel.ts","../src/trace-analyst/prompts.ts","../src/trace-analyst/analyst.ts","../src/trace-analyst/insights.ts","../src/trace/otlp-flat.ts","../src/trace-analyst/store-tool-spans.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Wrap a provider `fetch` and record request, response, and error events.\n *\n * The returned value is a plain `typeof fetch`. Capture is best-effort by\n * default; set `failClosed` when telemetry loss must stop the provider call.\n */\n\nimport {\n  type ExtractedUsage,\n  extractUsage,\n  extractUsageFromSse,\n  type SseUsageMode,\n} from './extract-usage'\nimport {\n  defaultProviderRedactor,\n  type ProviderRedactor,\n  providerFromBaseUrl,\n  type RawProviderDirection,\n  type RawProviderEvent,\n  type RawProviderSink,\n} from './raw-provider-sink'\n\nexport interface CaptureFetchContext {\n  /** Logical run id stamped on every captured event. Required — without it\n   *  the raw events can't be paired with their parent `Run`. */\n  runId: string\n  /** Optional logical span id (enables span-level sink filtering). */\n  spanId?: string\n  /** Resolved base URL (normalised, no trailing slash). Used for the event's\n   *  `baseUrl` and for endpoint-path extraction. */\n  baseUrl: string\n  /** Model id the caller intends to invoke. Stamped on every event. */\n  model: string\n  /** Provider override. When omitted, `providerFromBaseUrl(baseUrl)`. */\n  provider?: string\n}\n\nexport interface CaptureFetchOptions {\n  /** Override the capture-time redactor. Default `defaultProviderRedactor`. */\n  redactor?: ProviderRedactor\n  /** Cap on captured response-body bytes; beyond it the body is truncated and\n   *  `body_truncated` is added to `redactedFields`. Default 2 MiB. */\n  responseBodyByteCap?: number\n  /** When true, a sink-write failure propagates to the caller. Default false\n   *  — capture is best-effort so a sink failure never kills the LLM call. */\n  failClosed?: boolean\n  /**\n   * Invoked with the token usage parsed off each successful response (JSON or\n   * SSE), keyed by the captured context. Lets a caller fold usage → cost without\n   * re-cloning the response themselves. Not called when the response carries no\n   * usage. Best-effort: a throw here is swallowed (it never kills the LLM call)\n   * unless `failClosed` is set.\n   */\n  onUsage?: (usage: ExtractedUsage, ctx: CaptureFetchContext) => void\n  /** How repeated SSE usage events should be reconciled. Default `cumulative`. */\n  sseUsageMode?: SseUsageMode\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_BODY_CAP = 2 * 1024 * 1024\n\nfunction headersToRecord(headers: Headers | undefined): Record<string, string> | undefined {\n  if (!headers) return undefined\n  const out: Record<string, string> = {}\n  headers.forEach((value, key) => {\n    out[key.toLowerCase()] = value\n  })\n  return Object.keys(out).length > 0 ? out : undefined\n}\n\nfunction parseMaybeJson(text: string): unknown {\n  if (text.length === 0) return undefined\n  try {\n    return JSON.parse(text)\n  } catch {\n    return text\n  }\n}\n\n/** Best-effort request-body read across the `fetch` input forms. */\nasync function readRequestBody(\n  input: RequestInfo | URL,\n  init: RequestInit | undefined,\n): Promise<unknown> {\n  if (typeof init?.body === 'string') return parseMaybeJson(init.body)\n  if (init?.body != null) return undefined // streams / FormData / Blob — not captured\n  if (input instanceof Request) {\n    try {\n      return parseMaybeJson(await input.clone().text())\n    } catch {\n      return undefined\n    }\n  }\n  return undefined\n}\n\nfunction endpointFromUrl(url: string, baseUrl: string): string {\n  const normalisedBase = baseUrl.replace(/\\/+$/, '')\n  if (url.startsWith(normalisedBase)) return url.slice(normalisedBase.length) || '/'\n  try {\n    return new URL(url).pathname\n  } catch {\n    return url\n  }\n}\n\nexport function captureFetchToRawSink(\n  fetch: typeof globalThis.fetch,\n  sink: RawProviderSink,\n  ctx: CaptureFetchContext,\n  opts: CaptureFetchOptions = {},\n): typeof globalThis.fetch {\n  const provider = ctx.provider ?? providerFromBaseUrl(ctx.baseUrl)\n  const redactor = opts.redactor ?? defaultProviderRedactor\n  const bodyCap = opts.responseBodyByteCap ?? DEFAULT_BODY_CAP\n  let warned = false\n\n  const baseEvent = (direction: RawProviderDirection, endpoint: string): RawProviderEvent => ({\n    eventId: crypto.randomUUID(),\n    runId: ctx.runId,\n    spanId: ctx.spanId,\n    provider,\n    model: ctx.model,\n    endpoint,\n    baseUrl: ctx.baseUrl,\n    attemptIndex: 0, // retries are re-invocations one layer up; documented in 0.x\n    direction,\n    timestamp: Date.now(),\n    redactedFields: [],\n  })\n\n  const record = async (event: RawProviderEvent): Promise<void> => {\n    try {\n      await sink.record(redactor(event))\n    } catch (err) {\n      if (opts.failClosed) throw err\n      if (!warned) {\n        warned = true\n        console.warn(\n          `captureFetchToRawSink: sink.record failed (capture is best-effort) — ${\n            err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)\n          }`,\n        )\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  return async (input: RequestInfo | URL, init?: RequestInit): Promise<Response> => {\n    const url =\n      typeof input === 'string' ? input : input instanceof URL ? input.toString() : input.url\n    const method = (init?.method ?? (input instanceof Request ? input.method : 'GET')).toUpperCase()\n    const endpoint = endpointFromUrl(url, ctx.baseUrl)\n\n    const reqHeaders = new Headers(\n      init?.headers ?? (input instanceof Request ? input.headers : undefined),\n    )\n    await record({\n      ...baseEvent('request', endpoint),\n      requestHeaders: { ...headersToRecord(reqHeaders), 'x-http-method': method },\n      requestBody: await readRequestBody(input, init),\n    })\n\n    const start = Date.now()\n    let response: Response\n    try {\n      response = await fetch(input, init)\n    } catch (err) {\n      await record({\n        ...baseEvent('error', endpoint),\n        durationMs: Date.now() - start,\n        errorMessage: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n      })\n      throw err\n    }\n\n    // Read the body off a clone so the caller still consumes the original.\n    let responseBody: unknown\n    let rawText: string | undefined\n    const redactedFields: string[] = []\n    try {\n      rawText = await response.clone().text()\n      if (rawText.length > bodyCap) {\n        responseBody = rawText.slice(0, bodyCap)\n        redactedFields.push('body_truncated')\n      } else {\n        responseBody = parseMaybeJson(rawText)\n      }\n    } catch {\n      responseBody = undefined\n    }\n\n    if (opts.onUsage && rawText !== undefined) {\n      // Reuse the body already read for capture; no extra clone. JSON first,\n      // then SSE accumulation. A throw in the consumer's callback is swallowed\n      // (best-effort) unless failClosed is set — the LLM call must not die here.\n      try {\n        const parsedForUsage = parseMaybeJson(rawText)\n        const usage =\n          extractUsage(parsedForUsage) ??\n          (typeof parsedForUsage === 'string'\n            ? extractUsageFromSse(rawText, { mode: opts.sseUsageMode })\n            : null)\n        if (usage) opts.onUsage(usage, ctx)\n      } catch (err) {\n        if (opts.failClosed) throw err\n      }\n    }\n\n    await record({\n      ...baseEvent('response', endpoint),\n      durationMs: Date.now() - start,\n      statusCode: response.status,\n      responseHeaders: headersToRecord(response.headers),\n      responseBody,\n      redactedFields,\n    })\n\n    return response\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * The ONE encoding from this package's span values to OTLP wire values.\n *\n * Both exporters emit the same `OtlpSpan` shape, so an attribute typed as a\n * double by one and a string by the other would make the same run read\n * differently depending on which exporter produced it.\n */\n\n/** One OTLP `KeyValue`: the value is tagged with the protocol's type slot. */\nexport interface OtlpAttribute {\n  key: string\n  value: { stringValue?: string; intValue?: string; doubleValue?: number; boolValue?: boolean }\n}\n\n/** OTLP `KeyValue[]` for a flat attribute record. */\nexport function toOtlpAttributes(\n  record: Record<string, string | number | boolean>,\n): OtlpAttribute[] {\n  return Object.entries(record).map(([key, value]) => ({\n    key,\n    value:\n      typeof value === 'number'\n        ? Number.isInteger(value)\n          ? { intValue: value.toString() }\n          : { doubleValue: value }\n        : typeof value === 'boolean'\n          ? { boolValue: value }\n          : { stringValue: value },\n  }))\n}\n\n/** OTLP nanosecond timestamp, as the decimal string the protocol requires. */\nexport function msToUnixNano(ms: number): string {\n  return (BigInt(Math.floor(ms)) * 1_000_000n).toString()\n}\n","/**\n * The ONE mapping from agent-eval's human-readable ids (run ids, span labels)\n * to W3C/OTLP wire ids. Every exporter in this package MUST route through\n * these two functions — two exporters with private paddings once produced\n * DIFFERENT trace ids for the same run, and one emitted invalid hex embedding\n * the raw run id in the wire id (tangle-network/agent-runtime#694).\n *\n * Semantics:\n *  - an id that is ALREADY a valid W3C id passes through unchanged, so a\n *    trace id received from an inbound `traceparent` survives the round-trip\n *    and cross-process correlation is preserved;\n *  - anything else is derived with the contract's `deriveHexId`, the only\n *    legal derivation — deterministic, so every process that derives from the\n *    same human id mints the SAME wire id.\n */\n\nimport { deriveHexId, isW3CSpanId, isW3CTraceId } from '@tangle-network/agent-trace-contract'\n\n/** 32-hex W3C trace id for any id string. */\nexport function traceIdForWire(id: string): string {\n  return isW3CTraceId(id) ? id : deriveHexId(id, 16)\n}\n\n/** 16-hex W3C span id for any id string. */\nexport function spanIdForWire(id: string): string {\n  return isW3CSpanId(id) ? id : deriveHexId(id, 8)\n}\n","/**\n * OpenTelemetry JSON export — maps TraceSchema v1 to OTLP/JSON so\n * traces render natively in Jaeger / Honeycomb / Langfuse / Grafana.\n *\n * Wire format only. We do NOT depend on the @opentelemetry SDK — that\n * would drag in polyfills incompatible with Workers/Edge. Consumers\n * push the JSON to their collector of choice via HTTP.\n *\n * Reference: OTLP 1.3.2 (ResourceSpans / ScopeSpans / Span).\n */\n\nimport {\n  applyLlmSpanOtlpAttributes,\n  applyToolSpanOtlpAttributes,\n  OPENINFERENCE_SPAN_KIND,\n  traceSpanKindToOpenInferenceKind,\n} from './otlp-attributes'\nimport { msToUnixNano, toOtlpAttributes } from './otlp-encoding'\nimport type { Run, Span, TraceEvent } from './schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './store'\nimport { spanIdForWire, traceIdForWire } from './wire-ids'\n\nexport const OTEL_AGENT_EVAL_SCOPE = { name: '@tangle-network/agent-eval', version: '0.3.0' }\n\nexport interface OtlpSpan {\n  traceId: string\n  spanId: string\n  parentSpanId?: string\n  name: string\n  kind: number\n  startTimeUnixNano: string\n  endTimeUnixNano: string\n  attributes: Array<{\n    key: string\n    value: { stringValue?: string; intValue?: string; doubleValue?: number; boolValue?: boolean }\n  }>\n  events?: Array<{ timeUnixNano: string; name: string; attributes?: OtlpSpan['attributes'] }>\n  status?: { code: number; message?: string }\n}\n\nexport interface OtlpResourceSpans {\n  resource: { attributes: OtlpSpan['attributes'] }\n  scopeSpans: Array<{ scope: typeof OTEL_AGENT_EVAL_SCOPE; spans: OtlpSpan[] }>\n}\n\nexport interface OtlpExport {\n  resourceSpans: OtlpResourceSpans[]\n}\n\n/** Export a single run's spans + events in OTLP/JSON. */\nexport async function exportRunAsOtlp(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  runId: string,\n  resourceAttrs: Record<string, string | number | boolean> = {},\n): Promise<OtlpExport> {\n  const run = await store.getRun(runId)\n  if (!run) throw new Error(`run ${runId} not found`)\n  const spans = await store.spans({ runId })\n  const events = await store.events({ runId })\n  const eventsBySpan = new Map<string, TraceEvent[]>()\n  for (const e of events) {\n    if (!e.spanId) continue\n    const arr = eventsBySpan.get(e.spanId) ?? []\n    arr.push(e)\n    eventsBySpan.set(e.spanId, arr)\n  }\n  const traceId = runToTraceId(run)\n  const otlpSpans: OtlpSpan[] = spans.map((s) =>\n    spanToOtlp(s, traceId, eventsBySpan.get(s.spanId) ?? []),\n  )\n  return {\n    resourceSpans: [\n      {\n        resource: {\n          attributes: toOtlpAttributes({\n            'service.name': 'agent-eval',\n            'run.id': run.runId,\n            'run.scenario_id': run.scenarioId,\n            'run.variant_id': run.variantId ?? '',\n            'run.dataset_version': run.datasetVersion ?? '',\n            'run.code_sha': run.codeSha ?? '',\n            'run.model_fingerprint': run.modelFingerprint ?? '',\n            ...resourceAttrs,\n          }),\n        },\n        scopeSpans: [{ scope: OTEL_AGENT_EVAL_SCOPE, spans: otlpSpans }],\n      },\n    ],\n  }\n}\n\nfunction spanToOtlp(span: Span, traceId: string, events: TraceEvent[]): OtlpSpan {\n  const endedAt = span.endedAt ?? span.startedAt\n  return {\n    traceId,\n    spanId: spanIdForWire(span.spanId),\n    parentSpanId: span.parentSpanId ? spanIdForWire(span.parentSpanId) : undefined,\n    name: span.name,\n    kind: 1, // SPAN_KIND_INTERNAL\n    startTimeUnixNano: msToUnixNano(span.startedAt),\n    endTimeUnixNano: msToUnixNano(endedAt),\n    attributes: toOtlpAttributes(flattenSpanAttributes(span)),\n    events: events.map((e) => ({\n      timeUnixNano: msToUnixNano(e.timestamp),\n      name: e.kind,\n      attributes: toOtlpAttributes(flattenPayload(e.payload)),\n    })),\n    status: span.status === 'error' ? { code: 2, message: span.error } : { code: 1 },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction flattenSpanAttributes(span: Span): Record<string, string | number | boolean> {\n  const base: Record<string, string | number | boolean> = {}\n  if (span.attributes) {\n    for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(span.attributes)) {\n      if (typeof v === 'string' || typeof v === 'number' || typeof v === 'boolean') base[k] = v\n    }\n  }\n  base[OPENINFERENCE_SPAN_KIND] = traceSpanKindToOpenInferenceKind(span.kind)\n  if (span.kind === 'llm') {\n    applyLlmSpanOtlpAttributes(base, span)\n  } else if (span.kind === 'tool') {\n    applyToolSpanOtlpAttributes(base, span)\n  } else if (span.kind === 'retrieval') {\n    base['retrieval.query'] = span.query\n    base['retrieval.hits'] = span.hits.length\n  } else if (span.kind === 'judge') {\n    base['judge.id'] = span.judgeId\n    base['judge.dimension'] = span.dimension\n    base['judge.score'] = span.score\n    base['judge.target_span_id'] = span.targetSpanId\n  } else if (span.kind === 'sandbox') {\n    if (span.image) base['sandbox.image'] = span.image\n    if (span.exitCode !== undefined) base['sandbox.exit_code'] = span.exitCode\n    if (span.testsPassed !== undefined) base['sandbox.tests_passed'] = span.testsPassed\n    if (span.testsTotal !== undefined) base['sandbox.tests_total'] = span.testsTotal\n  }\n  return base\n}\n\nfunction flattenPayload(\n  payload: Record<string, unknown>,\n): Record<string, string | number | boolean> {\n  const out: Record<string, string | number | boolean> = {}\n  for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(payload)) {\n    if (typeof v === 'string' || typeof v === 'number' || typeof v === 'boolean') out[k] = v\n    else out[k] = JSON.stringify(v)\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction runToTraceId(run: Run): string {\n  return traceIdForWire(run.runId)\n}\n","/** General policy for recursive, evidence-backed trace analysis. */\n\nexport const TRACE_ANALYST_ACTOR_DESCRIPTION = `Answer the question by inspecting the OTLP trace dataset with the available tools.\n\n1. Call getDatasetOverview first. Use its real trace ids and dataset size to plan the investigation.\n2. Narrow with queryTraces and countTraces before scanning large payloads.\n3. For a small trace, use viewTrace. For a large trace, use searchTrace and then viewSpans or searchSpan.\n4. Never invent a trace id, span id, tool result, error, frequency, or final outcome.\n5. When a search reports has_more, refine the query before drawing a conclusion.\n6. Use llm_query only over evidence already loaded. A recursive query cannot inspect traces itself.\n7. Cite exact evidence URIs returned by the tools. Include a short exact excerpt when it supports the claim.\n8. Return no finding when the available evidence cannot support one.\n\nThe prose answer must directly answer the question and state important uncertainty.\nThe findings array contains only actionable or decision-relevant claims supported by inspected evidence.`\n\nexport const TRACE_ANALYST_ACTOR_DESCRIPTION_VERSION = 'trace-analyst-research-v1-2026-07-30'\n","import { randomUUID } from 'node:crypto'\nimport type {\n  TraceAnalysisEngine,\n  TraceAnalysisEngineResult,\n  TraceAnalystLimits,\n} from '../analyst/engine'\nimport { runTraceAnalyst } from '../analyst/kind-factory'\nimport type { TraceToolGroupName } from '../analyst/tool-groups'\nimport type { AnalystFinding, AnalystUsageReceipt } from '../analyst/types'\nimport type { CostLedgerHandle } from '../cost-ledger'\nimport { TRACE_ANALYST_ACTOR_DESCRIPTION, TRACE_ANALYST_ACTOR_DESCRIPTION_VERSION } from './prompts'\nimport type { TraceAnalysisStore } from './store'\nimport { OtlpFileTraceStore } from './store-otlp'\n\nexport interface AnalyzeTracesInput {\n  question: string\n  id?: string\n  description?: string\n  area?: string\n}\n\nexport type AnalyzeTracesResult = TraceAnalysisEngineResult\n\nexport interface AnalyzeTracesOptions {\n  /** OTLP JSONL path or a caller-owned store. */\n  source: string | TraceAnalysisStore\n  /** Recursive research engine. */\n  engine: TraceAnalysisEngine\n  /** Override the general trace-research policy. */\n  instructions?: string\n  /** Smallest tool set that can answer the question. Default: all. */\n  toolGroup?: TraceToolGroupName\n  limits?: Partial<TraceAnalystLimits>\n  runId?: string\n  budgetUsd?: number\n  costLedger?: CostLedgerHandle\n  costPhase?: string\n  priorFindings?: readonly AnalystFinding[]\n  upstreamFindings?: readonly AnalystFinding[]\n  recordUsage?: (receipt: AnalystUsageReceipt) => void\n  tags?: Record<string, string>\n  log?: (message: string, fields?: Record<string, unknown>) => void\n  signal?: AbortSignal\n}\n\n/**\n * Answer one question by recursively inspecting a trace store.\n *\n * The returned answer, cited findings, engine steps, call counts, and runtime\n * identity are one audit record. A direct one-shot model call is not used.\n */\nexport async function analyzeTraces(\n  input: AnalyzeTracesInput,\n  options: AnalyzeTracesOptions,\n): Promise<AnalyzeTracesResult> {\n  if (typeof input.question !== 'string' || !input.question.trim()) {\n    throw new TypeError('analyzeTraces: input.question must be a non-empty string')\n  }\n  const id = input.id?.trim() || 'trace-analysis'\n  const store =\n    typeof options.source === 'string'\n      ? new OtlpFileTraceStore({ path: options.source })\n      : options.source\n  if (store instanceof OtlpFileTraceStore) {\n    await store.ensureIndexed(options.signal ? { signal: options.signal } : undefined)\n  }\n\n  return runTraceAnalyst({\n    definition: {\n      id,\n      description:\n        input.description?.trim() ||\n        'Answers a caller-defined question by recursively inspecting trace evidence.',\n      area: input.area?.trim() || 'trace-analysis',\n      version: TRACE_ANALYST_ACTOR_DESCRIPTION_VERSION,\n      question: input.question,\n      instructions: options.instructions ?? TRACE_ANALYST_ACTOR_DESCRIPTION,\n      toolGroup: options.toolGroup ?? 'all',\n      limits: options.limits,\n    },\n    engine: options.engine,\n    store,\n    context: {\n      runId: options.runId ?? id,\n      correlationId: randomUUID(),\n      budgetUsd: options.budgetUsd,\n      costLedger: options.costLedger,\n      costPhase: options.costPhase ?? 'trace-analysis',\n      priorFindings: options.priorFindings,\n      upstreamFindings: options.upstreamFindings,\n      recordUsage: options.recordUsage,\n      tags: options.tags,\n      log: options.log,\n      signal: options.signal,\n    },\n  })\n}\n","export interface TraceInsightTask {\n  id: string\n  name: string\n  prompt?: string\n  difficulty?: string\n  tags?: string[]\n  outcome?: string\n  score?: number\n  gaps?: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface TraceInsightSuite {\n  name: string\n  collectionId?: string\n  tasks: TraceInsightTask[]\n}\n\nexport interface TraceInsightFinding {\n  kind: string\n  severity?: string\n  taskIds: string[]\n  evidence?: string\n  proposedFixClass?: string\n}\n\nexport interface TraceInsightQuestion {\n  id: string\n  question: string\n  why: string\n}\n\nexport interface TraceInsightPanelRole {\n  id: string\n  name: string\n  responsibility: string\n}\n\nexport interface TraceInsightPromptInput {\n  suite: TraceInsightSuite\n  findings?: TraceInsightFinding[]\n  agent?: Record<string, unknown>\n  totals?: Record<string, unknown>\n  maxRepresentativeTraces?: number\n}\n\nexport interface TraceInsightContext {\n  suite: TraceInsightSuite\n  scope: string\n  keywords: string[]\n  questions: TraceInsightQuestion[]\n  panel: TraceInsightPanelRole[]\n  findings: TraceInsightFinding[]\n  agent: Record<string, unknown> | null\n  totals: Record<string, unknown> | null\n}\n\nexport interface TraceInsightQualityGate {\n  id: string\n  label: string\n  passed: boolean\n  severity: 'critical' | 'high' | 'medium' | 'low'\n  detail: string\n}\n\nexport interface TraceInsightReadiness {\n  score: number\n  grade: 'external-ready' | 'internal-review' | 'raw-analysis'\n  gates: TraceInsightQualityGate[]\n}\n\nconst DOMAIN_STOP_WORDS = new Set([\n  'and',\n  'advanced',\n  'app',\n  'build',\n  'create',\n  'easy',\n  'expert',\n  'extreme',\n  'for',\n  'from',\n  'hard',\n  'implementation',\n  'integrate',\n  'medium',\n  'project',\n  'task',\n  'the',\n  'this',\n  'with',\n  'workflow',\n])\n\nexport function tokenizeDomainWords(value: string): string[] {\n  return [...value.matchAll(/[A-Za-z][A-Za-z0-9.+#-]{2,}/g)]\n    .map((match) => match[0].toLowerCase())\n    .filter((word) => !DOMAIN_STOP_WORDS.has(word))\n}\n\nexport function inferDomainKeywords(suite: TraceInsightSuite): string[] {\n  const suiteWords = new Set(tokenizeDomainWords(`${suite.name} ${suite.collectionId ?? ''}`))\n  const source = [\n    suite.name,\n    suite.collectionId ?? '',\n    ...suite.tasks.flatMap((task) => [\n      task.id,\n      task.name,\n      task.prompt ?? '',\n      task.difficulty ?? '',\n      ...(task.tags ?? []),\n      ...(task.gaps ?? []),\n    ]),\n  ].join(' ')\n  const counts = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const word of tokenizeDomainWords(source)) counts.set(word, (counts.get(word) ?? 0) + 1)\n  return [...counts.entries()]\n    .filter(([word, count]) => count >= 2 || suiteWords.has(word))\n    .sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1] || a[0].localeCompare(b[0]))\n    .map(([word]) => word)\n    .slice(0, 18)\n}\n\nexport function domainEvidencePattern(keywords: string[]): RegExp {\n  const escaped = keywords\n    .filter((keyword) => keyword.length >= 3)\n    .map((keyword) => keyword.replace(/[.*+?^${}()|[\\]\\\\]/g, '\\\\$&'))\n  return escaped.length > 0\n    ? new RegExp(`(?<![A-Za-z0-9])(?:${escaped.join('|')})(?![A-Za-z0-9])`, 'i')\n    : /(?<![A-Za-z0-9])(?:sdk|api|css|dns|xml|provider|client|service|integration|webhook|transaction|auth|oauth|graphql|rest)(?![A-Za-z0-9])/i\n}\n\nexport function describeTraceInsightScope(suite: TraceInsightSuite): string {\n  const taskLabel =\n    suite.tasks.length === 1\n      ? '1 implementation task'\n      : `${suite.tasks.length} implementation tasks`\n  const tags = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const task of suite.tasks) {\n    for (const tag of task.tags ?? []) tags.set(tag, (tags.get(tag) ?? 0) + 1)\n  }\n  const topTags = [...tags.entries()]\n    .sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1] || a[0].localeCompare(b[0]))\n    .slice(0, 8)\n    .map(([tag]) => tag)\n  if (topTags.length > 0) return `${taskLabel} across ${topTags.join(', ')}.`\n  const difficulties = [\n    ...new Set(\n      suite.tasks.map((task) => task.difficulty).filter((value): value is string => Boolean(value)),\n    ),\n  ].join(', ')\n  return `${taskLabel} across ${difficulties || 'the selected benchmark scope'}.`\n}\n\nexport function planTraceInsightQuestions(input: TraceInsightPromptInput): TraceInsightQuestion[] {\n  const hasFailures = input.suite.tasks.some((task) => task.outcome && task.outcome !== 'satisfied')\n  const hasMultipleShots = input.suite.tasks.some((task) =>\n    (task.gaps ?? []).some((gap) => /shot|review|retry|continue/i.test(gap)),\n  )\n  const questions: TraceInsightQuestion[] = [\n    {\n      id: 'execution-path',\n      question: 'What did the worker actually do before the first meaningful implementation edit?',\n      why: 'Separates grounded execution from polished but shallow output.',\n    },\n    {\n      id: 'research-grounding',\n      question:\n        'Did the worker inspect docs, source, examples, or package references before committing to an implementation path?',\n      why: 'Identifies whether failures came from weak retrieval, weak examples, or premature coding.',\n    },\n    {\n      id: 'domain-proof',\n      question:\n        'Which tasks produced executable domain proof versus UI copy, placeholders, or inferred behavior?',\n      why: 'Keeps product-quality claims tied to concrete evidence.',\n    },\n    {\n      id: 'root-cause',\n      question:\n        'For each major failure cluster, is the likely root cause prompt/scaffold, docs/examples, SDK/API ergonomics, evaluator, runtime, or model behavior?',\n      why: 'Turns trace observations into actionable ownership.',\n    },\n    {\n      id: 'evidence-quality',\n      question:\n        'Which external-facing claims are directly supported by trace ids, span ids, verifier findings, reviewer notes, or generated code?',\n      why: 'Prevents unsupported customer-report conclusions.',\n    },\n  ]\n  if (hasMultipleShots) {\n    questions.push({\n      id: 'reviewer-lift',\n      question: 'Where did reviewer feedback improve score, stall, or regress across shots?',\n      why: 'Shows whether the driver loop is learning or merely repeating work.',\n    })\n  }\n  if (hasFailures) {\n    questions.push({\n      id: 'optimization-targets',\n      question:\n        'Which prompt, evaluator, scaffold, or workflow changes should feed the next GEPA/autoresearch optimization run?',\n      why: 'Connects benchmark evidence to the optimization loop.',\n    })\n  }\n  return questions\n}\n\nexport function buildTraceInsightContext(input: TraceInsightPromptInput): TraceInsightContext {\n  return {\n    suite: input.suite,\n    scope: describeTraceInsightScope(input.suite),\n    keywords: inferDomainKeywords(input.suite),\n    questions: planTraceInsightQuestions(input),\n    panel: defaultTraceInsightPanel(),\n    findings: input.findings ?? [],\n    agent: input.agent ?? null,\n    totals: input.totals ?? null,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function scoreTraceInsightReadiness(context: TraceInsightContext): TraceInsightReadiness {\n  const failedTasks = context.suite.tasks.filter(\n    (task) => task.outcome && task.outcome !== 'satisfied',\n  )\n  const findingTaskIds = new Set(context.findings.flatMap((finding) => finding.taskIds))\n  const failedTasksWithFindings = failedTasks.filter((task) => findingTaskIds.has(task.id))\n  const tasksWithGaps = context.suite.tasks.filter((task) => (task.gaps ?? []).length > 0)\n  const gates: TraceInsightQualityGate[] = [\n    {\n      id: 'domain-context',\n      label: 'Domain context inferred',\n      passed: context.keywords.length > 0,\n      severity: 'high',\n      detail:\n        context.keywords.length > 0\n          ? `${context.keywords.length} domain terms inferred: ${context.keywords.slice(0, 8).join(', ')}`\n          : 'No domain terms were inferred from suite, tasks, prompts, tags, or gaps.',\n    },\n    {\n      id: 'panel-coverage',\n      label: 'Analyst panel planned',\n      passed: context.panel.length >= 4 && context.questions.length >= 5,\n      severity: 'high',\n      detail: `${context.panel.length} panel roles and ${context.questions.length} investigation questions planned.`,\n    },\n    {\n      id: 'failure-coverage',\n      label: 'Failures mapped to findings',\n      passed:\n        failedTasks.length === 0 || failedTasksWithFindings.length / failedTasks.length >= 0.5,\n      severity: 'critical',\n      detail:\n        failedTasks.length === 0\n          ? 'No failed tasks in suite.'\n          : `${failedTasksWithFindings.length}/${failedTasks.length} failed tasks appear in finding clusters.`,\n    },\n    {\n      id: 'gap-evidence',\n      label: 'Task gaps captured',\n      passed: failedTasks.length === 0 || tasksWithGaps.length / failedTasks.length >= 0.5,\n      severity: 'medium',\n      detail: `${tasksWithGaps.length} tasks include explicit evaluator or analyst gaps.`,\n    },\n  ]\n  const penalty = gates.reduce((sum, gate) => {\n    if (gate.passed) return sum\n    if (gate.severity === 'critical') return sum + 35\n    if (gate.severity === 'high') return sum + 20\n    if (gate.severity === 'medium') return sum + 10\n    return sum + 5\n  }, 0)\n  const score = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, 1 - penalty / 100))\n  return {\n    score,\n    grade: score >= 0.9 ? 'external-ready' : score >= 0.7 ? 'internal-review' : 'raw-analysis',\n    gates,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function defaultTraceInsightPanel(): TraceInsightPanelRole[] {\n  return [\n    {\n      id: 'trace-forensics',\n      name: 'Trace Forensics',\n      responsibility:\n        'Reconstruct what the worker did in order, including research, edits, reviewer interventions, verifier feedback, and stop reason.',\n    },\n    {\n      id: 'root-cause',\n      name: 'Root Cause',\n      responsibility:\n        'Map failures to prompt/scaffold, docs/examples, SDK/API/product ergonomics, evaluator, runtime, or model behavior.',\n    },\n    {\n      id: 'optimization',\n      name: 'Optimization',\n      responsibility:\n        'Identify prompt, reviewer, evaluator, scaffold, and GEPA/autoresearch changes that should be tested next.',\n    },\n    {\n      id: 'external-evidence',\n      name: 'External Evidence',\n      responsibility:\n        'Separate customer-safe claims from internal harness findings and reject conclusions without task, trace, span, code, reviewer, or verifier evidence.',\n    },\n  ]\n}\n\nexport function buildTraceInsightPrompt(input: TraceInsightPromptInput): string {\n  const context = buildTraceInsightContext(input)\n  const maxRepresentativeTraces = input.maxRepresentativeTraces ?? 6\n  return `Analyze this benchmark run and produce evidence-backed trace intelligence.\n\nAudience:\n- internal AI/product leadership\n- possible customer-facing report for ${input.suite.name}\n\nInvestigation plan:\n${context.questions.map((item, index) => `${index + 1}. ${item.question} (${item.why})`).join('\\n')}\n\nAnalyst panel:\n${context.panel.map((role) => `- ${role.name}: ${role.responsibility}`).join('\\n')}\n\nIf the task branches are independent, use subagents for the panel roles above and aggregate their findings. Do not run a panel role unless its answer will change the final report.\n\nRequired output:\n1. Executive verdict: what this run proves and does not prove.\n2. The investigation questions you answered and the evidence used.\n3. Failure taxonomy: agent prompting, evaluator/harness, docs/examples, SDK/API/product integration, infra.\n4. Evidence-backed examples with trace ids/task ids and concrete verifier findings.\n5. Highest-ROI fixes for the benchmark harness, prompt/GEPA optimization, and customer-facing product/docs surface.\n6. What is safe for an external report versus what must stay internal.\n7. One rerun plan that would validate lift after optimization.\n\nBudget:\n- Inspect the dataset overview, the failure summary, and at most ${maxRepresentativeTraces} representative traces.\n- Prefer traces named in the failure summary over broad exploration.\n- Do not do exhaustive trace sweeps.\n- Return the final report as soon as the taxonomy and examples are supported.\n\nRun summary:\n${JSON.stringify(\n  {\n    suite: input.suite.name,\n    scope: context.scope,\n    inferredKeywords: context.keywords,\n    agent: context.agent,\n    totals: context.totals,\n    findings: context.findings.map((finding) => ({\n      kind: finding.kind,\n      severity: finding.severity,\n      taskCount: finding.taskIds.length,\n      proposedFixClass: finding.proposedFixClass,\n    })),\n    failures: input.suite.tasks\n      .filter((task) => task.outcome && task.outcome !== 'satisfied')\n      .map((task) => ({\n        task: task.id,\n        difficulty: task.difficulty,\n        outcome: task.outcome,\n        score: task.score,\n        gaps: task.gaps ?? [],\n      })),\n  },\n  null,\n  2,\n)}\n\nUse the trace tools. Do not invent facts. Cite task ids. Separate customer-facing claims from internal harness/model findings.`\n}\n","/** Canonical flattened OTLP span shape shared by trace producers and readers. */\n\nimport type { SpanStatus } from './schema'\n\nexport type OtlpStatusCode = 'STATUS_CODE_OK' | 'STATUS_CODE_ERROR' | 'STATUS_CODE_UNSET'\n\nexport interface OtlpFlatLine {\n  trace_id: string\n  span_id: string\n  parent_span_id: string | null\n  name: string\n  kind: string\n  start_time: string\n  end_time: string\n  status: {\n    code: OtlpStatusCode\n    message?: string\n  }\n  resource: { attributes: Record<string, unknown> }\n  attributes: Record<string, unknown>\n  events?: Array<{ name: string; timeUnixNano?: string; attributes?: Record<string, unknown> }>\n}\n\nexport interface CreateOtlpFlatLineInput {\n  traceId: string\n  spanId: string\n  parentSpanId: string | null\n  name: string\n  kind: string\n  startTime: string\n  endTime: string\n  statusCode: OtlpStatusCode\n  statusMessage?: string\n  resource: OtlpFlatLine['resource']\n  attributes: Record<string, unknown>\n  events?: OtlpFlatLine['events']\n}\n\nexport function createOtlpFlatLine(input: CreateOtlpFlatLineInput): OtlpFlatLine {\n  return {\n    trace_id: input.traceId,\n    span_id: input.spanId,\n    parent_span_id: input.parentSpanId,\n    name: input.name,\n    kind: input.kind,\n    start_time: input.startTime,\n    end_time: input.endTime,\n    status: {\n      code: input.statusCode,\n      ...(input.statusMessage !== undefined ? { message: input.statusMessage } : {}),\n    },\n    resource: input.resource,\n    attributes: input.attributes,\n    ...(input.events && input.events.length > 0 ? { events: input.events } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\n/** Map the canonical trace status while letting each caller choose its legacy default. */\nexport function spanStatusToOtlp(\n  status: SpanStatus | undefined,\n  error: string | undefined,\n  defaultCode: OtlpStatusCode,\n): OtlpStatusCode {\n  if (status === 'error' || error) return 'STATUS_CODE_ERROR'\n  if (status === 'ok') return 'STATUS_CODE_OK'\n  return defaultCode\n}\n\n/** Convert epoch milliseconds, returning `undefined` for invalid or out-of-range values. */\nexport function epochMillisToIso(value: number): string | undefined {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(value)) return undefined\n  try {\n    return new Date(value).toISOString()\n  } catch {\n    return undefined\n  }\n}\n","import { CaptureIntegrityError } from '../errors'\nimport { applyToolSpanOtlpAttributes, OPENINFERENCE_SPAN_KIND } from '../trace/otlp-attributes'\nimport { createOtlpFlatLine, epochMillisToIso, spanStatusToOtlp } from '../trace/otlp-flat'\nimport type { ToolSpan } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceAnalysisStore } from './store'\nimport { createOtlpBufferTraceStore, type ToolSpansToTraceAnalysisStoreOptions } from './store-otlp'\n\n/** Missing tool spans cannot distinguish a tool-free run from broken capture. */\nexport class ToolTraceMissingError extends CaptureIntegrityError {\n  constructor() {\n    super('toolSpansToTraceAnalysisStore: no tool spans supplied; trace evidence is missing')\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Snapshot canonical tool spans into the read interface used by trace analysts.\n * One run becomes one trace while arguments, results, errors, and timing remain searchable.\n */\nexport function toolSpansToTraceAnalysisStore(\n  spans: readonly ToolSpan[] | null | undefined,\n  options: ToolSpansToTraceAnalysisStoreOptions = {},\n): TraceAnalysisStore {\n  if (!spans || spans.length === 0) throw new ToolTraceMissingError()\n\n  const seen = new Set<string>()\n  const lines = spans.map((span, index) => {\n    assertToolSpanIdentity(span, index)\n    const identity = `${span.runId}\\u0000${span.spanId}`\n    if (seen.has(identity)) {\n      throw new CaptureIntegrityError(\n        `toolSpansToTraceAnalysisStore: duplicate span '${span.spanId}' in run '${span.runId}'`,\n      )\n    }\n    seen.add(identity)\n\n    const attributes = { ...(span.attributes ?? {}) }\n    applyToolSpanOtlpAttributes(attributes, span)\n    attributes[OPENINFERENCE_SPAN_KIND] = 'TOOL'\n\n    const endedAt = span.endedAt ?? span.startedAt + (span.latencyMs ?? 0)\n    const line = createOtlpFlatLine({\n      traceId: span.runId,\n      spanId: span.spanId,\n      parentSpanId: span.parentSpanId ?? null,\n      name: span.name,\n      kind: 'SPAN_KIND_INTERNAL',\n      startTime: toolSpanTimeIso(span.startedAt, span.spanId, 'startedAt'),\n      endTime: toolSpanTimeIso(endedAt, span.spanId, 'endedAt'),\n      statusCode: spanStatusToOtlp(span.status, span.error, 'STATUS_CODE_UNSET'),\n      statusMessage: span.error,\n      resource: { attributes: {} },\n      attributes,\n    })\n    try {\n      return JSON.stringify(line)\n    } catch (cause) {\n      throw new CaptureIntegrityError(\n        `toolSpansToTraceAnalysisStore: span '${span.spanId}' in run '${span.runId}' is not JSON-serializable`,\n        { cause },\n      )\n    }\n  })\n\n  return createOtlpBufferTraceStore(Buffer.from(`${lines.join('\\n')}\\n`, 'utf8'), options)\n}\n\nfunction assertToolSpanIdentity(span: ToolSpan, index: number): void {\n  if (span.kind !== 'tool') {\n    throw new CaptureIntegrityError(\n      `toolSpansToTraceAnalysisStore: span at index ${index} has kind '${String(span.kind)}', not 'tool'`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (!span.runId || !span.spanId || !span.name || !span.toolName) {\n    throw new CaptureIntegrityError(\n      `toolSpansToTraceAnalysisStore: span at index ${index} is missing runId, spanId, name, or toolName`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (!Number.isFinite(span.startedAt)) {\n    throw new CaptureIntegrityError(\n      `toolSpansToTraceAnalysisStore: span '${span.spanId}' has invalid startedAt`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (span.endedAt !== undefined && !Number.isFinite(span.endedAt)) {\n    throw new CaptureIntegrityError(\n      `toolSpansToTraceAnalysisStore: span '${span.spanId}' has invalid endedAt`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (span.endedAt !== undefined && span.endedAt < span.startedAt) {\n    throw new CaptureIntegrityError(\n      `toolSpansToTraceAnalysisStore: span '${span.spanId}' ends before it starts`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (span.latencyMs !== undefined && (!Number.isFinite(span.latencyMs) || span.latencyMs < 0)) {\n    throw new CaptureIntegrityError(\n      `toolSpansToTraceAnalysisStore: span '${span.spanId}' has invalid latencyMs`,\n    )\n  }\n}\n\nfunction toolSpanTimeIso(value: number, spanId: string, field: string): string {\n  const iso = epochMillisToIso(value)\n  if (iso) return iso\n  throw new CaptureIntegrityError(\n    `toolSpansToTraceAnalysisStore: span '${spanId}' has invalid ${field}`,\n  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package/dist/storyboard/index.d.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { _ as Span } from "../schema-Bjgdsn73.js";
+import { _ as Span } from "../schema-DID1Cqct.js";
 //#region src/storyboard/code-edit.d.ts
 /** A concrete code change lifted from a tool span. */
 interface CodeEdit {

package/dist/{student-t-CvBq2mve.js → student-t-BA-Uy51p.js}

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { u as regularizedIncompleteBeta } from "./internal-BDHPCnjk.js";
+import { l as regularizedIncompleteBeta } from "./internal-BMFSR8Ns.js";
 //#region src/math/student-t.ts
 /**
 * Student-t CDF via the regularized incomplete beta function.
@@ -35,4 +35,4 @@ function studentTQuantile(probability, degreesOfFreedom) {
 //#endregion
 export { studentTQuantile as n, studentTCdf as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=student-t-CvBq2mve.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=student-t-BA-Uy51p.js.map

package/dist/{student-t-CvBq2mve.js.map → student-t-BA-Uy51p.js.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"student-t-CvBq2mve.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/math/student-t.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { regularizedIncompleteBeta } from './special-functions'\n\n/**\n * Student-t CDF via the regularized incomplete beta function.\n */\nexport function studentTCdf(t: number, degreesOfFreedom: number): number {\n  if (degreesOfFreedom <= 0) return 0.5\n\n  const x = degreesOfFreedom / (degreesOfFreedom + t * t)\n  const beta = regularizedIncompleteBeta(x, degreesOfFreedom / 2, 0.5)\n  return t >= 0 ? 1 - 0.5 * beta : 0.5 * beta\n}\n\n/**\n * Inverse Student-t CDF, solved against {@link studentTCdf}.\n *\n * The CDF is monotone, so bracket expansion followed by bisection is stable\n * across fractional degrees of freedom and does not need a separate\n * approximation with a different error profile.\n */\nexport function studentTQuantile(probability: number, degreesOfFreedom: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(probability) || probability < 0 || probability > 1) {\n    throw new RangeError(`studentTQuantile: probability must be in [0,1], got ${probability}`)\n  }\n  if (!Number.isFinite(degreesOfFreedom) || degreesOfFreedom <= 0) {\n    throw new RangeError(\n      `studentTQuantile: degreesOfFreedom must be positive and finite, got ${degreesOfFreedom}`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (probability === 0) return Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY\n  if (probability === 1) return Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY\n  if (probability === 0.5) return 0\n  if (probability < 0.5) return -studentTQuantile(1 - probability, degreesOfFreedom)\n\n  let low = 0\n  let high = 1\n  while (studentTCdf(high, degreesOfFreedom) < probability) high *= 2\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < 64; iteration++) {\n    const middle = (low + high) / 2\n    if (studentTCdf(middle, degreesOfFreedom) < probability) low = middle\n    else high = middle\n  }\n  return (low + high) / 2\n}\n"],"mappings":";;;;;AAKA,SAAgB,YAAY,GAAW,kBAAkC;CACvE,IAAI,oBAAoB,GAAG,OAAO;CAGlC,MAAM,OAAO,0BADH,oBAAoB,mBAAmB,IAAI,IACX,mBAAmB,GAAG,EAAG;CACnE,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,KAAM,OAAO,KAAM;AACzC;;;;;;;;AASA,SAAgB,iBAAiB,aAAqB,kBAAkC;CACtF,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,WAAW,KAAK,cAAc,KAAK,cAAc,GACpE,MAAM,IAAI,WAAW,uDAAuD,aAAa;CAE3F,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,gBAAgB,KAAK,oBAAoB,GAC5D,MAAM,IAAI,WACR,uEAAuE,kBACzE;CAEF,IAAI,gBAAgB,GAAG,OAAO,OAAO;CACrC,IAAI,gBAAgB,GAAG,OAAO,OAAO;CACrC,IAAI,gBAAgB,IAAK,OAAO;CAChC,IAAI,cAAc,IAAK,OAAO,CAAC,iBAAiB,IAAI,aAAa,gBAAgB;CAEjF,IAAI,MAAM;CACV,IAAI,OAAO;CACX,OAAO,YAAY,MAAM,gBAAgB,IAAI,aAAa,QAAQ;CAClE,KAAK,IAAI,YAAY,GAAG,YAAY,IAAI,aAAa;EACnD,MAAM,UAAU,MAAM,QAAQ;EAC9B,IAAI,YAAY,QAAQ,gBAAgB,IAAI,aAAa,MAAM;OAC1D,OAAO;CACd;CACA,QAAQ,MAAM,QAAQ;AACxB"}
+{"version":3,"file":"student-t-BA-Uy51p.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/math/student-t.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { regularizedIncompleteBeta } from './special-functions'\n\n/**\n * Student-t CDF via the regularized incomplete beta function.\n */\nexport function studentTCdf(t: number, degreesOfFreedom: number): number {\n  if (degreesOfFreedom <= 0) return 0.5\n\n  const x = degreesOfFreedom / (degreesOfFreedom + t * t)\n  const beta = regularizedIncompleteBeta(x, degreesOfFreedom / 2, 0.5)\n  return t >= 0 ? 1 - 0.5 * beta : 0.5 * beta\n}\n\n/**\n * Inverse Student-t CDF, solved against {@link studentTCdf}.\n *\n * The CDF is monotone, so bracket expansion followed by bisection is stable\n * across fractional degrees of freedom and does not need a separate\n * approximation with a different error profile.\n */\nexport function studentTQuantile(probability: number, degreesOfFreedom: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(probability) || probability < 0 || probability > 1) {\n    throw new RangeError(`studentTQuantile: probability must be in [0,1], got ${probability}`)\n  }\n  if (!Number.isFinite(degreesOfFreedom) || degreesOfFreedom <= 0) {\n    throw new RangeError(\n      `studentTQuantile: degreesOfFreedom must be positive and finite, got ${degreesOfFreedom}`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (probability === 0) return Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY\n  if (probability === 1) return Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY\n  if (probability === 0.5) return 0\n  if (probability < 0.5) return -studentTQuantile(1 - probability, degreesOfFreedom)\n\n  let low = 0\n  let high = 1\n  while (studentTCdf(high, degreesOfFreedom) < probability) high *= 2\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < 64; iteration++) {\n    const middle = (low + high) / 2\n    if (studentTCdf(middle, degreesOfFreedom) < probability) low = middle\n    else high = middle\n  }\n  return (low + high) / 2\n}\n"],"mappings":";;;;;AAKA,SAAgB,YAAY,GAAW,kBAAkC;CACvE,IAAI,oBAAoB,GAAG,OAAO;CAGlC,MAAM,OAAO,0BADH,oBAAoB,mBAAmB,IAAI,IACX,mBAAmB,GAAG,EAAG;CACnE,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,KAAM,OAAO,KAAM;AACzC;;;;;;;;AASA,SAAgB,iBAAiB,aAAqB,kBAAkC;CACtF,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,WAAW,KAAK,cAAc,KAAK,cAAc,GACpE,MAAM,IAAI,WAAW,uDAAuD,aAAa;CAE3F,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,gBAAgB,KAAK,oBAAoB,GAC5D,MAAM,IAAI,WACR,uEAAuE,kBACzE;CAEF,IAAI,gBAAgB,GAAG,OAAO,OAAO;CACrC,IAAI,gBAAgB,GAAG,OAAO,OAAO;CACrC,IAAI,gBAAgB,IAAK,OAAO;CAChC,IAAI,cAAc,IAAK,OAAO,CAAC,iBAAiB,IAAI,aAAa,gBAAgB;CAEjF,IAAI,MAAM;CACV,IAAI,OAAO;CACX,OAAO,YAAY,MAAM,gBAAgB,IAAI,aAAa,QAAQ;CAClE,KAAK,IAAI,YAAY,GAAG,YAAY,IAAI,aAAa;EACnD,MAAM,UAAU,MAAM,QAAQ;EAC9B,IAAI,YAAY,QAAQ,gBAAgB,IAAI,aAAa,MAAM;OAC1D,OAAO;CACd;CACA,QAAQ,MAAM,QAAQ;AACxB"}

package/dist/{summary-report-BI5hUtvK.js → summary-report-Bgh8CpNK.js}

@@ -1,10 +1,10 @@
-import { n as hashJson } from "./pre-registration-KN9jkh58.js";
-import { i as makeRng } from "./internal-BDHPCnjk.js";
-import { t as confidenceInterval } from "./descriptive-jDOuI6mz.js";
+import { n as hashJson } from "./pre-registration-D94b7Of5.js";
+import { i as makeRng } from "./internal-BMFSR8Ns.js";
+import { t as confidenceInterval } from "./descriptive-1V17A-qa.js";
 import { i as pairedCohensDz } from "./effect-sizes-DiH8MGOH.js";
-import { o as benjaminiHochberg, r as pairedMde } from "./power-and-mde-CHIrXJll.js";
-import { l as wilcoxonSignedRank, r as pairRunRecords } from "./paired-arms-D-XRF_fy.js";
-import { r as pairedBootstrap } from "./paired-tests-BHIhYVdu.js";
+import { o as benjaminiHochberg, r as pairedMde } from "./power-and-mde-B8F2RdcD.js";
+import { l as wilcoxonSignedRank, r as pairRunRecords } from "./paired-arms-D4aeIHUy.js";
+import { r as pairedBootstrap } from "./paired-tests-C8iCsioC.js";
 import { r as observedSplitScore } from "./reward-nw2xZGZG.js";
 //#region src/summary-report.ts
 /**
@@ -857,4 +857,4 @@ function fmt(x) {
 //#endregion
 export { summaryTable as a, researchReport as i, gainHistogram as n, paretoChart as r, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=summary-report-BI5hUtvK.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=summary-report-Bgh8CpNK.js.map

package/dist/{summary-report-BI5hUtvK.js.map → summary-report-Bgh8CpNK.js.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"summary-report-BI5hUtvK.js","names":["hi"],"sources":["../src/summary-report.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Reporting helpers — production summaries and paper-quality figures — sit alongside `reporter.ts` rather\n * than replacing it.\n *\n * Three artefacts:\n *\n *   - `summaryTable`           Markdown table of per-candidate means,\n *                            95% bootstrap CIs, BH-adjusted Wilcoxon\n *                            p-values, and Cohen's d versus a\n *                            comparator candidate.\n *   - `paretoChart`         Abstract spec for a cost vs quality\n *                            scatter, with gate decisions overlaid.\n *                            Returns numbers + labels — caller\n *                            chooses the plotting library.\n *   - `gainHistogram`\n *                            Per-item paired holdout deltas as a\n *                            histogram spec (bins + counts + median +\n *                            CI). Same \"data, not images\" contract.\n *\n * The figure types are PlotSpecs — JSON-friendly, library-agnostic.\n * They aren't React components and they aren't PNGs; they are\n * what you'd hand to vega-lite, plotly, matplotlib, or your own\n * Canvas renderer to draw the actual figure.\n */\n\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from './paired-arms'\nimport type { FailureClusterReport } from './pipelines/failure-cluster'\nimport { hashJson } from './pre-registration'\nimport { observedSplitScore, type ScorePreference } from './rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport {\n  benjaminiHochberg,\n  confidenceInterval,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\nimport { makeRng } from './statistics/internal'\n\n// ── summaryTable ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SummaryTableOptions {\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Wilcoxon + paired Cohen's dz are computed\n   *  versus this candidate. Required for paired stats columns. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to read scores from. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the bootstrap CI on the mean. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR for BH adjustment of the comparison p-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTableRow {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  /** BH-adjusted q-value vs comparator, or null when unavailable. */\n  qValue: number | null\n  /** Paired Cohen's dz vs comparator, or null when the paired variance is zero. */\n  cohensD: number | null\n  /** Matched observations used for paired comparison, or null on the comparator row. */\n  pairedN: number | null\n  /** Candidate observations without a comparator match. */\n  unpairedCandidateN: number | null\n  /** Comparator observations without a candidate match. */\n  unpairedComparatorN: number | null\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTable {\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[]\n  comparator: string | null\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Pre-rendered markdown — drop into a paper or PR. */\n  markdown: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Table 1 helper. Buckets runs by `candidateId`, computes mean +\n * bootstrap CI on the chosen split, and (when a comparator is given)\n * BH-adjusted Wilcoxon p + paired Cohen's dz versus that comparator.\n */\nexport function summaryTable(runs: RunRecord[], opts: SummaryTableOptions = {}): SummaryTable {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n\n  const byCandidate = new Map<string, { runs: RunRecord[]; scores: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    // RAW (`observedSplitScore`): every figure in this module reports what the\n    // runs scored. Zeroing a gamed run here would erase it from the very table\n    // a reviewer reads to notice it, and the split is already filtered above,\n    // so the exact-split reader is the right one — no cross-split fallback.\n    const v = observedSplitScore(r, split)\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? { runs: [], scores: [] }\n    bucket.runs.push(r)\n    bucket.scores.push(v)\n    byCandidate.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const candidateIds = [...byCandidate.keys()].sort()\n  const compRuns = comparator ? byCandidate.get(comparator) : undefined\n\n  // First pass: per-candidate means + CIs + raw p-values.\n  const tentative: Array<SummaryTableRow & { rawP: number | null }> = []\n  for (const id of candidateIds) {\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(id)!\n    const ci = confidenceInterval(bucket.scores, confidence)\n    let rawP: number | null = null\n    let d: number | null = null\n    let pairedN: number | null = null\n    let unpairedCandidateN: number | null = null\n    let unpairedComparatorN: number | null = null\n    if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {\n      const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, split)\n      pairedN = paired.before.length\n      unpairedCandidateN = paired.unpairedCandidateN\n      unpairedComparatorN = paired.unpairedComparatorN\n      if (paired.before.length >= 6) {\n        rawP = wilcoxonSignedRank(paired.before, paired.after).p\n      }\n      d = pairedCohensDz(paired.before, paired.after)\n    }\n    tentative.push({\n      candidateId: id,\n      n: bucket.scores.length,\n      mean: ci.mean,\n      ciLow: ci.lower,\n      ciHigh: ci.upper,\n      qValue: rawP,\n      cohensD: d,\n      pairedN,\n      unpairedCandidateN,\n      unpairedComparatorN,\n      rawP,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // BH-adjust across the comparison set (skip NaN rows / the\n  // comparator itself). Adjustment is a no-op when there are 0 or 1\n  // comparators.\n  if (comparator) {\n    const idxs: number[] = []\n    const ps: number[] = []\n    for (let i = 0; i < tentative.length; i++) {\n      const r = tentative[i]!\n      if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue\n      if (r.rawP === null || !Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue\n      idxs.push(i)\n      ps.push(r.rawP)\n    }\n    if (ps.length > 0) {\n      const { qValues } = benjaminiHochberg(ps, fdr)\n      for (let k = 0; k < idxs.length; k++) {\n        tentative[idxs[k]!]!.qValue = qValues[k]!\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  const rows = tentative.map(({ rawP: _rawP, ...rest }) => rest)\n  const markdown = renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split)\n  return { rows, comparator, split, markdown }\n}\n\nfunction pairScoresByKey(\n  candidate: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: ScorePreference,\n): {\n  before: number[]\n  after: number[]\n  unpairedCandidateN: number\n  unpairedComparatorN: number\n} {\n  // RAW, split-exact reads through `observedSplitScore` — the single allowed\n  // spelling of the split-score derivation (see rollout/score-derivation-guard).\n  const scoreOf = (run: RunRecord): number | undefined => {\n    const v = observedSplitScore(run, split)\n    return typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : undefined\n  }\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== undefined)\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== undefined)\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  return {\n    before: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.baseline) as number),\n    after: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.treatment) as number),\n    unpairedCandidateN: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,\n    unpairedComparatorN: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction renderSummaryTableMarkdown(\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[],\n  comparator: string | null,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const cmpLabel = comparator ? ` (vs ${comparator})` : ''\n  lines.push(`Summary Table — ${split} split${cmpLabel}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\"| Candidate | N | Pairs | Unpaired | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen's dz |\")\n  lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|')\n  for (const r of rows) {\n    const ci = `[${fmt(r.ciLow)}, ${fmt(r.ciHigh)}]`\n    const q = r.qValue !== null ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : '—'\n    const d = r.cohensD !== null ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : '—'\n    const paired = r.pairedN ?? '—'\n    const unpaired =\n      r.unpairedCandidateN === null || r.unpairedComparatorN === null\n        ? '—'\n        : `${r.unpairedCandidateN}/${r.unpairedComparatorN}`\n    lines.push(\n      `| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${paired} | ${unpaired} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n')\n}\n\n// ── paretoChart ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface ParetoPoint {\n  candidateId: string\n  /** Mean USD cost per run on the chosen split. */\n  cost: number\n  /** Mean score on the chosen split. */\n  quality: number\n  /** Number of runs that informed this point. */\n  n: number\n  /** Whether this candidate is on the Pareto frontier — high\n   *  quality, low cost, no dominator. */\n  onFrontier: boolean\n  /** Optional gate verdict for this candidate, if a `GateDecision`\n   *  for it was passed in. */\n  gate?: 'promote' | 'reject'\n}\n\nexport interface ParetoFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'pareto-cost-quality'\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  points: ParetoPoint[]\n  axes: { x: 'costUsd'; y: 'score' }\n}\n\n/**\n * Cost vs quality scatter spec. `gateDecisions` is keyed by\n * candidate id; if present, every point picks up the gate verdict\n * for overlay.\n */\nexport function paretoChart(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: {\n    split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  } = {},\n): ParetoFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n\n  const buckets = new Map<string, { cost: number[]; quality: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    const v = observedSplitScore(r, split)\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    if (r.costUsd === null) continue\n    const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? { cost: [], quality: [] }\n    bucket.cost.push(r.costUsd)\n    bucket.quality.push(v)\n    buckets.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const points: ParetoPoint[] = []\n  for (const [candidateId, bucket] of buckets.entries()) {\n    points.push({\n      candidateId,\n      cost: avg(bucket.cost),\n      quality: avg(bucket.quality),\n      n: bucket.cost.length,\n      onFrontier: false,\n      gate: opts.gateDecisions?.[candidateId]\n        ? gateLabel(opts.gateDecisions[candidateId]!)\n        : undefined,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // Pareto: minimize cost, maximize quality. A point is dominated if\n  // some other point has lower-or-equal cost AND higher-or-equal\n  // quality with strict inequality somewhere.\n  for (const p of points) {\n    p.onFrontier = !points.some((q) => q !== p && dominates(q, p))\n  }\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'pareto-cost-quality',\n    split,\n    axes: { x: 'costUsd', y: 'score' },\n    points,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction dominates(a: ParetoPoint, b: ParetoPoint): boolean {\n  return a.cost <= b.cost && a.quality >= b.quality && (a.cost < b.cost || a.quality > b.quality)\n}\n\nfunction gateLabel(d: GateDecision): ParetoPoint['gate'] {\n  return d.promote ? 'promote' : 'reject'\n}\n\n// ── gainHistogram ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface GainDistributionBin {\n  /** Inclusive lower edge. */\n  lo: number\n  /** Exclusive upper edge (or inclusive if it's the last bin). */\n  hi: number\n  /** Number of pairs whose delta lands in this bin. */\n  count: number\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'gain-distribution'\n  candidateId: string\n  comparator: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Number of pairs used. */\n  n: number\n  /** Candidate rows without a comparator match. */\n  unpairedCandidateN: number\n  /** Comparator rows without a candidate match. */\n  unpairedComparatorN: number\n  bins: GainDistributionBin[]\n  median: number | null\n  ci: { low: number; high: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionOptions {\n  /** Number of histogram bins. Default 11 (so the centre is exact at 0). */\n  bins?: number\n  /** Which split to use. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the CI. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */\n  resamples?: number\n  /** Deterministic seed. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Held-out improvement distribution: per-pair delta (candidate −\n * comparator), histogrammed. Includes the bootstrap CI on the median\n * delta — same primitive the promotion gate uses.\n */\nexport function gainHistogram(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: GainDistributionOptions = {},\n): GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const binCount = opts.bins ?? 11\n  if (binCount < 1) throw new Error('gainHistogram: bins must be ≥ 1')\n\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === split)\n  // pairScoresByKey returns before=baseline-score, after=candidate-score\n  // for each canonical work-identity pair where both sides recorded a\n  // valid score on this split. delta = after - before = candidate - baseline.\n  const { before, after, unpairedCandidateN, unpairedComparatorN } = pairScoresByKey(\n    candidate,\n    baseline,\n    split,\n  )\n  const n = before.length\n\n  if (n === 0) {\n    return {\n      kind: 'gain-distribution',\n      candidateId,\n      comparator,\n      split,\n      n: 0,\n      unpairedCandidateN,\n      unpairedComparatorN,\n      bins: [],\n      median: null,\n      ci: null,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const median = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const min = sortedDeltas[0]!\n  const max = sortedDeltas[sortedDeltas.length - 1]!\n\n  // Symmetric bins around the wider of (|min|, |max|) so the chart\n  // visually centres on zero without dropping outliers.\n  const bound = Math.max(Math.abs(min), Math.abs(max), 1e-6)\n  const lo = -bound\n  const hi = bound\n  const width = (hi - lo) / binCount\n  const bins: GainDistributionBin[] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < binCount; i++) {\n    bins.push({ lo: lo + i * width, hi: lo + (i + 1) * width, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const d of deltas) {\n    let idx = Math.floor((d - lo) / width)\n    if (idx < 0) idx = 0\n    if (idx >= binCount) idx = binCount - 1\n    bins[idx]!.count += 1\n  }\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence ?? 0.95,\n    resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'gain-distribution',\n    candidateId,\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    n,\n    unpairedCandidateN,\n    unpairedComparatorN,\n    bins,\n    median,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── researchReport ───────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport type ResearchReportDecision =\n  | 'promote'\n  | 'hold'\n  | 'reject'\n  | 'equivalent'\n  | 'needs_more_data'\n\n/**\n * Hard floor below which a paired comparison is treated as uninformative\n * regardless of `minPairs`. Mirrors the lower limit on Wilcoxon signed-rank\n * exact tables; below this the test has no power to separate effect sizes.\n */\nexport const RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6\n\nexport interface ResearchReportOptions {\n  /** Human-readable report title. */\n  title?: string\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Required for statistical decision guidance. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to use for the primary decision. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level used by lower-level report helpers. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR threshold for q-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n  /**\n   * Soft floor on paired observations before issuing a directional\n   * promote / reject. Below this we report `needs_more_data` and surface the\n   * minimum detectable effect at the current N. Default 20 — chosen so the\n   * Wilcoxon signed-rank approximation is reasonable and so the paired\n   * bootstrap CI has non-degenerate coverage. Hard floor is enforced at\n   * `RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR` (6) regardless of this value.\n   */\n  minPairs?: number\n  /**\n   * Region of Practical Equivalence on the paired delta. When a candidate's\n   * paired-delta CI is fully contained in `[low, high]`, the decision is\n   * `equivalent` rather than `hold`. Sourced from the domain owner — there is\n   * no statistically-defensible default.\n   */\n  rope?: { low: number; high: number }\n  /**\n   * Power for the minimum detectable effect (MDE) reported on each candidate.\n   * Default 0.8.\n   */\n  mdePower?: number\n  /**\n   * Two-sided alpha for the MDE. Default matches `fdr` so the reported MDE\n   * lines up with the test the report actually runs.\n   */\n  mdeAlpha?: number\n  /** Optional held-out gate decisions keyed by candidate id. */\n  gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  /** Optional failure clusters from failureClusterView. */\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  /** Build gain histograms for these candidates. Defaults to all non-comparator candidates. */\n  candidateIds?: string[]\n  /** Deterministic bootstrap seed passed to gainHistogram and the posterior helper. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Report timestamp. Defaults to current time. */\n  generatedAt?: string\n  /**\n   * Hash of a preregistered protocol (e.g. `signManifest({...}).contentHash`).\n   * Embedded verbatim in the report so the analysis can be cited as the\n   * preregistered one rather than a post-hoc fishing expedition.\n   */\n  preregistrationHash?: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  candidateId: string | null\n  rationale: string[]\n  risks: string[]\n  nextActions: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportCandidate {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  qValue: number | null\n  cohensD: number | null\n  meanDeltaVsComparator: number | null\n  pairedN: number\n  medianGain: number | null\n  meanGain: number | null\n  gainCi: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  /**\n   * Bayesian-bootstrap posterior summaries on the paired mean delta.\n   * Dirichlet(1, ..., 1) weights represent uncertainty over the empirical\n   * distribution of matched deltas.\n   */\n  prGreaterThanZero: number | null\n  prInRope: number | null\n  /**\n   * Minimum detectable effect (in score units) at the candidate's paired N,\n   * the configured power, and the configured alpha. Standardised by the\n   * observed paired-delta SD and inverted via `requiredSampleSize`. Reported\n   * for every candidate so a `needs_more_data` verdict is actionable.\n   */\n  mde: number | null\n  onParetoFrontier: boolean\n  gate?: ParetoPoint['gate']\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  decisionReason: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportMethodology {\n  /**\n   * Plain-language assumptions the report depends on. Read these first when\n   * deciding whether the verdict is load-bearing for a launch decision.\n   */\n  assumptions: string[]\n  /** Tests and estimators the verdict was computed from. */\n  methods: string[]\n  /** Alternatives the author considered and why this report didn't take them. */\n  alternatives: string[]\n  /** Failure modes — when this report should NOT drive a decision. */\n  whenNotToApply: string[]\n  /** Citations for the methodological choices above. */\n  citations: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReport {\n  kind: 'agent-eval-research-report'\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  /**\n   * SHA-256 over the canonicalised set of `(runId, candidateId, split)` triples\n   * the report was computed from, plus the comparator and split. Stable across\n   * key insertion order; recomputable by the reader to verify provenance.\n   */\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  charts: {\n    pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n    gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  }\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  markdown: string\n  html: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Internal: paired posterior summary on (candidate − comparator) deltas.\n *\n * Returns the bootstrap CI on the median (matching `gainHistogram`) plus\n * Bayesian-bootstrap posterior summaries Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) computed\n * from Dirichlet(1, ..., 1) weights on the observed paired deltas\n * (Rubin 1981), and the\n * minimum detectable paired effect at the configured power and α.\n *\n * `null` is returned when no paired observations exist; callers must\n * gate on `n` before consuming the bootstrap statistics.\n */\nfunction pairedPosterior(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: {\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    confidence: number\n    seed?: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    mdePower: number\n    mdeAlpha: number\n  },\n): {\n  n: number\n  meanDelta: number\n  medianDelta: number\n  sdDelta: number\n  ci: { low: number; high: number }\n  prGreaterThanZero: number\n  prInRope: number | null\n  mde: number\n} | null {\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, opts.split)\n  const n = before.length\n  if (n === 0) return null\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const meanDelta = deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const medianDelta = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const sdDelta = stdev(deltas, meanDelta)\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  const meanSamples = bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, 2000, opts.seed)\n  const prGreaterThanZero =\n    meanSamples.length === 0 ? 0 : meanSamples.filter((s) => s > 0).length / meanSamples.length\n  const prInRope =\n    opts.rope === null || meanSamples.length === 0\n      ? null\n      : meanSamples.filter((s) => s >= opts.rope!.low && s <= opts.rope!.high).length /\n        meanSamples.length\n\n  const dStandardised = pairedMde({ nPaired: n, alpha: opts.mdeAlpha, power: opts.mdePower })\n  const mde = sdDelta === 0 ? 0 : dStandardised * sdDelta\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    meanDelta,\n    medianDelta,\n    sdDelta,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n    prGreaterThanZero,\n    prInRope,\n    mde,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(\n  deltas: number[],\n  resamples: number,\n  seed?: number,\n): number[] {\n  const n = deltas.length\n  if (n === 0) return []\n  if (n === 1) return new Array<number>(resamples).fill(deltas[0]!)\n  const rng = makeRng(seed, deltas)\n  const samples = new Array<number>(resamples)\n  for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {\n    let weightedSum = 0\n    let weightSum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {\n      const weight = -Math.log(Math.max(Number.MIN_VALUE, rng()))\n      weightedSum += deltas[k]! * weight\n      weightSum += weight\n    }\n    samples[b] = weightedSum / weightSum\n  }\n  return samples\n}\n\nfunction stdev(xs: number[], mean: number): number {\n  if (xs.length < 2) return 0\n  let sse = 0\n  for (const x of xs) sse += (x - mean) ** 2\n  return Math.sqrt(sse / (xs.length - 1))\n}\n\n/**\n * Executive research report for CPO / AI-lead / launch-review consumption.\n *\n * Composes:\n *   - `summaryTable`         marginal stats with BH-FDR-adjusted q-values\n *   - `paretoChart`           cost-vs-quality frontier with gate overlay\n *   - `gainHistogram`         per-candidate paired-delta distribution\n *   - paired posterior (this file): bootstrap CI on median, Bayesian-bootstrap Pr(Δ>0),\n *                              Pr(Δ∈ROPE), MDE at the configured power\n *\n * Decisions are made on paired evidence — never on marginal means alone —\n * and respect any held-out gate decision the caller passes through. The\n * report embeds a SHA-256 fingerprint of the input run set and, optionally,\n * the hash of a preregistered protocol so a downstream reader can verify\n * provenance and that the analysis was the preregistered one.\n *\n * Async because the fingerprint uses Web Crypto via `hashJson`; deterministic\n * for any fixed `runs`, `seed`, and ROPE.\n */\nexport async function researchReport(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: ResearchReportOptions = {},\n): Promise<ResearchReport> {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const minPairs = Math.max(opts.minPairs ?? 20, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR)\n  const rope = opts.rope ?? null\n  const mdePower = opts.mdePower ?? 0.8\n  const mdeAlpha = opts.mdeAlpha ?? fdr\n  const title = opts.title ?? 'Agent Evaluation Research Report'\n  const generatedAt = opts.generatedAt ?? new Date().toISOString()\n  const preregistrationHash = opts.preregistrationHash ?? null\n\n  if (rope && !(Number.isFinite(rope.low) && Number.isFinite(rope.high) && rope.low <= rope.high)) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `researchReport: rope must satisfy low ≤ high with finite bounds, got ${JSON.stringify(rope)}`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  const summary = summaryTable(runs, {\n    comparator: comparator ?? undefined,\n    split,\n    confidence,\n    fdr,\n  })\n  const pareto = paretoChart(runs, { split, gateDecisions: opts.gateDecisions })\n  const candidateIds =\n    opts.candidateIds ?? summary.rows.map((r) => r.candidateId).filter((id) => id !== comparator)\n  const gains = comparator\n    ? candidateIds.map((id) =>\n        gainHistogram(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n        }),\n      )\n    : []\n\n  const gainByCandidate = new Map(gains.map((g) => [g.candidateId, g]))\n  const paretoByCandidate = new Map(pareto.points.map((p) => [p.candidateId, p]))\n  const posteriorByCandidate = new Map<string, ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior>>()\n  if (comparator) {\n    for (const id of candidateIds) {\n      posteriorByCandidate.set(\n        id,\n        pairedPosterior(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n          rope,\n          mdePower,\n          mdeAlpha,\n        }),\n      )\n    }\n  }\n\n  const candidates = summary.rows\n    .map((row) => {\n      const gain = gainByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const point = paretoByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const posterior = posteriorByCandidate.get(row.candidateId) ?? null\n      const gateDecision = opts.gateDecisions?.[row.candidateId]\n      const classified = classifyCandidate(row, {\n        comparator,\n        posterior,\n        point,\n        gateDecision,\n        split,\n        fdr,\n        minPairs,\n        rope,\n      })\n      return {\n        candidateId: row.candidateId,\n        n: row.n,\n        mean: row.mean,\n        ciLow: row.ciLow,\n        ciHigh: row.ciHigh,\n        qValue: row.qValue,\n        cohensD: row.cohensD,\n        meanDeltaVsComparator: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        pairedN: posterior?.n ?? gain?.n ?? 0,\n        medianGain: posterior ? posterior.medianDelta : gain ? gain.median : null,\n        meanGain: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        gainCi: posterior ? posterior.ci : gain ? gain.ci : null,\n        prGreaterThanZero: posterior ? posterior.prGreaterThanZero : null,\n        prInRope: posterior ? posterior.prInRope : null,\n        mde: posterior ? posterior.mde : null,\n        onParetoFrontier: point?.onFrontier ?? false,\n        gate: gateDecision ? gateLabel(gateDecision) : undefined,\n        decision: classified.decision,\n        decisionReason: classified.reason,\n      } satisfies ResearchReportCandidate\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => {\n      const decisionRank = decisionWeight(b.decision) - decisionWeight(a.decision)\n      if (decisionRank !== 0) return decisionRank\n      return b.mean - a.mean\n    })\n\n  const recommendation = buildRecommendation(candidates, {\n    comparator,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    rope,\n    minPairs,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const executiveSummary = buildExecutiveSummary(candidates, recommendation, {\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const methodology = buildMethodology({\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    fdr,\n    minPairs,\n    rope,\n    confidence,\n    mdePower,\n    mdeAlpha,\n  })\n\n  const runFingerprint = await hashJson({\n    triples: runs\n      .filter((r) => r.splitTag === split)\n      .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, candidateId: r.candidateId, splitTag: r.splitTag }))\n      .sort((a, b) => a.runId.localeCompare(b.runId)),\n    comparator,\n    split,\n  })\n\n  const markdown = renderResearchMarkdown({\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    rope,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    pareto,\n    gains,\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n  })\n  const html = renderResearchHtml(markdown, title)\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'agent-eval-research-report',\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    rope,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    charts: { pareto, gains },\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    markdown,\n    html,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildMethodology(ctx: {\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  fdr: number\n  minPairs: number\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  confidence: number\n  mdePower: number\n  mdeAlpha: number\n}): ResearchReportMethodology {\n  const assumptions: string[] = [\n    'Pairs are matched by (experimentId, scenarioId, seed); input order does not affect the comparison.',\n    'Paired deltas are exchangeable conditional on the matched scenario — no mid-run distribution shift.',\n    `Decisions are pre-specified at fdr=${ctx.fdr}, minPairs=${ctx.minPairs}, confidence=${ctx.confidence}; deviating from these post-hoc invalidates the false-discovery control.`,\n  ]\n  if (ctx.rope) {\n    assumptions.push(\n      `The Region of Practical Equivalence ${formatRope(ctx.rope)} is supplied by the domain owner; equivalent verdicts are only meaningful if that range is treated as the standing definition of \"no material difference.\"`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.comparator === null) {\n    assumptions.push('No comparator was configured; this run is descriptive, not causal.')\n  }\n  const methods: string[] = [\n    \"Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and paired Cohen's dz via summaryTable.\",\n    'Paired evidence summarised with a frequentist bootstrap CI on the median delta and a Dirichlet-weight Bayesian bootstrap for Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) on the mean delta.',\n    `Minimum detectable effect reported per candidate at α=${ctx.mdeAlpha} (two-sided), power=${ctx.mdePower}, standardised by the observed paired-delta SD.`,\n    'Pareto frontier flagged as a separate axis (cost vs quality); a candidate can be on-frontier without winning the paired test.',\n    'Held-out gate decisions, when supplied, override the statistical verdict in the reject direction.',\n  ]\n  const alternatives: string[] = [\n    'Paired t-test rejected: not robust to the heavy-tailed score distributions common in agent benchmarks.',\n    'Unpaired Mann–Whitney rejected: matched scenarios make pairing free; unpaired throws away that variance reduction.',\n    'Sequential / always-valid inference (e-values, mSPRT) is the right tool for iterative sweeps and is out of scope for this single-look report — preregister and run once, or wrap this report in an alpha-spending schedule.',\n    'Hierarchical Bayesian shrinkage across many candidates is future work; the current ranking uses raw paired statistics.',\n  ]\n  const whenNotToApply: string[] = [\n    `Paired N below ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} on any candidate — the bootstrap CI is degenerate.`,\n    'Comparator chosen post-hoc by inspecting the same data; q-values are no longer false-discovery-controlled.',\n    'Scenarios not drawn under a stable preregistered protocol; the report can describe the data but cannot anchor a launch decision.',\n    'Score distributions with mid-run shift (judge model swap, rubric change, infra outage) — pair exchangeability is violated.',\n  ]\n  const citations: string[] = [\n    'Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. JRSS B, 57(1), 289–300.',\n    'Wilcoxon, F. (1945). Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bulletin, 1(6), 80–83.',\n    'Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1–26.',\n    'Rubin, D. B. (1981). The Bayesian bootstrap. Annals of Statistics, 9(1), 130–134.',\n    'Kruschke, J. K. (2018). Rejecting or accepting parameter values in Bayesian estimation. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1(2), 270–280. (ROPE.)',\n  ]\n  return { assumptions, methods, alternatives, whenNotToApply, citations }\n}\n\nfunction formatRope(rope: { low: number; high: number }): string {\n  return `[${fmt(rope.low)}, ${fmt(rope.high)}]`\n}\n\nfunction classifyCandidate(\n  row: SummaryTableRow,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    posterior: ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior> | null\n    point?: ParetoPoint\n    gateDecision?: GateDecision\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    fdr: number\n    minPairs: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  },\n): { decision: ResearchReportDecision; reason: string } {\n  if (ctx.comparator && row.candidateId === ctx.comparator) {\n    return { decision: 'hold', reason: 'Comparator baseline.' }\n  }\n  if (ctx.gateDecision && !ctx.gateDecision.promote) {\n    const code = ctx.gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? 'rejected'\n    return {\n      decision: 'reject',\n      reason: `Held-out gate returned ${code}: ${ctx.gateDecision.reason}`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    return {\n      decision: ctx.point?.onFrontier ? 'hold' : 'needs_more_data',\n      reason:\n        'No comparator configured; report ranks candidates but cannot anchor a promotion call.',\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.posterior || ctx.posterior.n < RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior?.n ?? 0} paired observations; below hard floor of ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} for any paired inference.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const ci = ctx.posterior.ci\n  if (ctx.split === 'search') {\n    return {\n      decision: 'hold',\n      reason:\n        'Search-split evidence is descriptive; release decisions require matched holdout runs.',\n    }\n  }\n  // A ZERO-WIDTH interval cannot support any directional or equivalence claim:\n  // every resample was identical, so it says nothing about how far the estimate\n  // could be wrong. It is the shape that sits fully inside any ROPE containing\n  // it (a fake \"practically equivalent\") and clears any threshold below it (a\n  // fake \"promote\"). Both are an absence of evidence, so it is disqualified from\n  // each claim rather than short-circuiting the whole classifier — the\n  // sample-size and MDE diagnostics below are still the more useful answer when\n  // they apply.\n  const degenerate = !Number.isFinite(ci.low) || !Number.isFinite(ci.high) || ci.low === ci.high\n  if (!degenerate && ctx.rope && ci.low >= ctx.rope.low && ci.high <= ctx.rope.high) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'equivalent',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] is fully inside ROPE ${formatRope(ctx.rope)}; candidate is practically equivalent to comparator.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const gainPositive = !degenerate && ci.low > 0\n  const gainNegative = !degenerate && ci.high < 0\n  if (gainNegative) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'reject',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] lies entirely below zero.`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (ctx.posterior.n < ctx.minPairs) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior.n} paired observations; minimum detectable effect at this N is ${fmt(ctx.posterior.mde)} score units (need ≥ ${ctx.minPairs} pairs to issue a directional verdict).`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (degenerate) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] has zero width — every resample was identical, so the interval carries no information about how far the estimate could be wrong and cannot support a promote or equivalence call.`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (row.qValue !== null && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr && gainPositive) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'promote',\n      reason: `BH-adjusted q=${fmt(row.qValue)} ≤ ${ctx.fdr} and paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] excludes zero; Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)}.`,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    decision: 'hold',\n    reason: `Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)} but CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] crosses zero; effect not decisive at fdr=${ctx.fdr}.`,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendation(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    minPairs: number\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  const bestPromote = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'promote')\n  const bestEquivalent = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent')\n  const chosen = bestPromote ?? bestEquivalent ?? nonComparator[0] ?? null\n  const decision: ResearchReportDecision = bestPromote\n    ? 'promote'\n    : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n      ? 'needs_more_data'\n      : bestEquivalent\n        ? 'equivalent'\n        : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'hold')\n          ? 'hold'\n          : 'reject'\n\n  const rationale: string[] = []\n  const risks: string[] = []\n  const nextActions: string[] = []\n\n  if (chosen) {\n    rationale.push(`${chosen.candidateId}: ${chosen.decisionReason}`)\n    if (chosen.gainCi) {\n      const probSummary =\n        chosen.prGreaterThanZero !== null ? `, Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(chosen.prGreaterThanZero)}` : ''\n      rationale.push(\n        `Median paired gain CI: [${fmt(chosen.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(chosen.gainCi.high)}]${probSummary}.`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (chosen.mde !== null && Number.isFinite(chosen.mde)) {\n      rationale.push(`MDE at current paired N=${chosen.pairedN}: ${fmt(chosen.mde)} score units.`)\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    risks.push('No comparator was configured; verdict is descriptive, not causal.')\n    nextActions.push('Re-run with a stable comparator candidate for paired inference.')\n  }\n  if (!ctx.preregistrationHash) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No preregistration hash supplied; readers cannot verify the analysis was specified before data inspection.',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Sign a HypothesisManifest before the next sweep and pass `preregistrationHash` so the report cites it.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.rope === null && nonComparator.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No ROPE configured; the report cannot distinguish \"equivalent\" from \"inconclusive\".',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Define a domain-specific Region of Practical Equivalence and pass it to lock in the equivalence threshold.',\n    )\n  }\n  const inconclusive = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n  if (inconclusive.length > 0) {\n    const worst = inconclusive.reduce((a, b) => (b.pairedN < a.pairedN ? b : a))\n    risks.push(\n      `${inconclusive.length} candidate(s) below soft floor (${ctx.minPairs} pairs); thinnest is ${worst.candidateId} with ${worst.pairedN}.`,\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      `Collect at least ${ctx.minPairs - worst.pairedN} more matched holdout runs for ${worst.candidateId}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject')\n  if (rejected.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      `${rejected.length} candidate(s) failed the paired test or held-out gate; do not ship those variants.`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    risks.push(`Top failure cluster: ${top.failureClass} across ${top.runCount} run(s).`)\n    nextActions.push('Prioritize the largest failure cluster before broad rollout.')\n  }\n  if (decision === 'promote') {\n    nextActions.push('Ship behind the existing promotion gate and monitor canaries.')\n  } else if (decision === 'hold') {\n    nextActions.push('Keep current production candidate while expanding holdout evidence.')\n  } else if (decision === 'equivalent') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Either keep the comparator (no quality regression) or promote on cost/latency grounds — equivalence does not justify either; the choice is a product decision, not a stats one.',\n    )\n  } else if (decision === 'reject') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Do not promote this sweep; inspect failures and generate a revised candidate.',\n    )\n  }\n\n  return {\n    decision,\n    candidateId: chosen?.candidateId ?? null,\n    rationale,\n    risks,\n    nextActions,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildExecutiveSummary(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): string[] {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  lines.push(\n    `Evaluated ${nonComparator.length} candidate(s) on the ${ctx.split} split${ctx.comparator ? ` against ${ctx.comparator}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  lines.push(\n    `Recommendation: ${recommendation.decision}${recommendation.candidateId ? ` ${recommendation.candidateId}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  const promoted = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'promote').length\n  const held = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'hold').length\n  const equivalent = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent').length\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject').length\n  const more = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data').length\n  lines.push(\n    `Decision mix: ${promoted} promote, ${equivalent} equivalent, ${held} hold, ${rejected} reject, ${more} need more data.`,\n  )\n  const frontier = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.onParetoFrontier).map((c) => c.candidateId)\n  if (frontier.length > 0) lines.push(`Pareto-frontier candidates: ${frontier.join(', ')}.`)\n  if (ctx.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push(\n      `Failure clustering found ${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures}/${ctx.failureClusters.totalRuns} failed runs across ${ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length} reportable cluster(s).`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push(\n    ctx.preregistrationHash\n      ? `Preregistered analysis: ${ctx.preregistrationHash.slice(0, 12)}…`\n      : 'Analysis is post-hoc — no preregistration hash supplied.',\n  )\n  return lines\n}\n\nfunction renderResearchMarkdown(report: {\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n  gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n}): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push(`# ${report.title}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Generated:** ${report.generatedAt}`)\n  lines.push(`**Primary split:** ${report.split}`)\n  lines.push(`**Comparator:** ${report.comparator ?? 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**ROPE:** ${report.rope ? formatRope(report.rope) : 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**Run fingerprint:** \\`${report.runFingerprint}\\``)\n  lines.push(\n    `**Preregistration:** ${report.preregistrationHash ? `\\`${report.preregistrationHash}\\`` : 'none'}`,\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Executive Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.executiveSummary) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Recommendation')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Decision:** ${report.recommendation.decision}`)\n  lines.push(`**Candidate:** ${report.recommendation.candidateId ?? 'N/A'}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Rationale')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.rationale) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Risks')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.risks.length\n    ? report.recommendation.risks\n    : ['No material report-level risks detected.']) {\n    lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Next Actions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.nextActions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Candidate Decision Table')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    '| Candidate | Decision | Mean | Δ̄ | Pr(Δ>0) | q | dz | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |',\n  )\n  lines.push('|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|---|')\n  for (const c of report.candidates) {\n    const delta = c.meanDeltaVsComparator === null ? '-' : signed(c.meanDeltaVsComparator)\n    const prGt = c.prGreaterThanZero === null ? '-' : c.prGreaterThanZero.toFixed(3)\n    const q = c.qValue !== null ? c.qValue.toFixed(4) : '-'\n    const d = c.cohensD !== null ? c.cohensD.toFixed(3) : '-'\n    const gain = c.gainCi ? `[${fmt(c.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(c.gainCi.high)}]` : '-'\n    const mde = c.mde === null || !Number.isFinite(c.mde) ? '-' : fmt(c.mde)\n    lines.push(\n      `| ${c.candidateId} | ${c.decision} | ${fmt(c.mean)} | ${delta} | ${prGt} | ${q} | ${d} | ${c.pairedN} | ${gain} | ${mde} | ${c.onParetoFrontier ? 'yes' : 'no'} | ${c.gate ?? '-'} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Statistical Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(report.summary.markdown)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Methodology')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Assumptions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.assumptions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Methods')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.methods) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Alternatives Considered')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.alternatives) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### When NOT To Apply')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.whenNotToApply) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Citations')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.citations) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Chart Specs')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    'The report carries JSON chart specs for Pareto cost/quality and paired gain histograms.',\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('```json')\n  lines.push(JSON.stringify({ pareto: report.pareto, gains: report.gains }, null, 2))\n  lines.push('```')\n  if (report.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('## Failure Clusters')\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('| Failure Class | Runs | Scenarios | Tool | Example |')\n    lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---|---|')\n    for (const c of report.failureClusters.clusters.slice(0, 10)) {\n      lines.push(\n        `| ${c.failureClass} | ${c.runCount} | ${c.scenarioIds.length} | ${c.toolName ?? '-'} | ${escapePipes(c.exampleError ?? c.exampleRunId)} |`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction renderResearchHtml(markdown: string, title: string): string {\n  const body = markdownToHtml(markdown)\n  return [\n    '<!doctype html>',\n    '<html lang=\"en\">',\n    '<head>',\n    '<meta charset=\"utf-8\">',\n    '<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1\">',\n    `<title>${escapeHtml(title)}</title>`,\n    '<style>',\n    'body{font-family:Inter,ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,\"Segoe UI\",sans-serif;margin:0;color:#172026;background:#f7f8f8;}',\n    'main{max-width:1080px;margin:0 auto;padding:40px 24px 64px;background:#fff;min-height:100vh;}',\n    'h1{font-size:34px;line-height:1.15;margin:0 0 20px;}h2{margin-top:34px;border-top:1px solid #d9dfdf;padding-top:22px;}h3{margin-top:22px;}',\n    'p,li{line-height:1.55;}table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;margin:16px 0;font-size:14px;}th,td{border:1px solid #d9dfdf;padding:8px;text-align:left;}th{background:#eef2f2;}',\n    'code,pre{font-family:ui-monospace,SFMono-Regular,Menlo,monospace;}pre{overflow:auto;background:#111827;color:#f9fafb;padding:16px;border-radius:6px;}',\n    '</style>',\n    '</head>',\n    '<body><main>',\n    body,\n    '</main></body></html>',\n  ].join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction markdownToHtml(markdown: string): string {\n  const lines = markdown.split('\\n')\n  const html: string[] = []\n  let inList = false\n  let inCode = false\n  let code: string[] = []\n  let table: string[] = []\n\n  const flushList = () => {\n    if (inList) {\n      html.push('</ul>')\n      inList = false\n    }\n  }\n  const flushTable = () => {\n    if (table.length === 0) return\n    html.push(renderMarkdownTable(table))\n    table = []\n  }\n\n  for (const line of lines) {\n    if (line.startsWith('```')) {\n      if (inCode) {\n        html.push(`<pre><code>${escapeHtml(code.join('\\n'))}</code></pre>`)\n        code = []\n        inCode = false\n      } else {\n        flushList()\n        flushTable()\n        inCode = true\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n    if (inCode) {\n      code.push(line)\n      continue\n    }\n    if (line.startsWith('|')) {\n      flushList()\n      table.push(line)\n      continue\n    }\n    flushTable()\n    if (line.startsWith('- ')) {\n      if (!inList) {\n        html.push('<ul>')\n        inList = true\n      }\n      html.push(`<li>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(2))}</li>`)\n      continue\n    }\n    flushList()\n    if (line.startsWith('# ')) html.push(`<h1>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(2))}</h1>`)\n    else if (line.startsWith('## ')) html.push(`<h2>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(3))}</h2>`)\n    else if (line.startsWith('### ')) html.push(`<h3>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(4))}</h3>`)\n    else if (line.trim() === '') html.push('')\n    else html.push(`<p>${inlineMarkdown(line)}</p>`)\n  }\n  flushList()\n  flushTable()\n  return html.join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction renderMarkdownTable(lines: string[]): string {\n  const rows = lines\n    .filter((line) => !/^\\|[-:\\s|]+\\|$/.test(line))\n    .map((line) =>\n      line\n        .slice(1, -1)\n        .split('|')\n        .map((cell) => inlineMarkdown(cell.trim())),\n    )\n  if (rows.length === 0) return ''\n  const [head, ...body] = rows\n  const th = head!.map((cell) => `<th>${cell}</th>`).join('')\n  const trs = body\n    .map((row) => `<tr>${row.map((cell) => `<td>${cell}</td>`).join('')}</tr>`)\n    .join('\\n')\n  return `<table><thead><tr>${th}</tr></thead><tbody>${trs}</tbody></table>`\n}\n\nfunction inlineMarkdown(s: string): string {\n  return escapeHtml(s).replace(/\\*\\*([^*]+)\\*\\*/g, '<strong>$1</strong>')\n}\n\nfunction escapeHtml(s: string): string {\n  return s\n    .replace(/&/g, '&amp;')\n    .replace(/</g, '&lt;')\n    .replace(/>/g, '&gt;')\n    .replace(/\"/g, '&quot;')\n}\n\nfunction escapePipes(s: string): string {\n  return s.replace(/\\|/g, '\\\\|')\n}\n\nfunction decisionWeight(decision: ResearchReportDecision): number {\n  if (decision === 'promote') return 5\n  if (decision === 'equivalent') return 4\n  if (decision === 'hold') return 3\n  if (decision === 'needs_more_data') return 2\n  return 1\n}\n\nfunction signed(x: number): string {\n  return `${x >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${fmt(x)}`\n}\n\n// ── tiny helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction avg(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return Number.NaN\n  return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction medianOfSorted(sorted: number[]): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return 0\n  const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2)\n  return sorted.length % 2 === 0 ? (sorted[mid - 1]! + sorted[mid]!) / 2 : sorted[mid]!\n}\n\nfunction fmt(x: number): string {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return String(x)\n  return 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+{"version":3,"file":"summary-report-Bgh8CpNK.js","names":["hi"],"sources":["../src/summary-report.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Reporting helpers — production summaries and paper-quality figures — sit alongside `reporter.ts` rather\n * than replacing it.\n *\n * Three artefacts:\n *\n *   - `summaryTable`           Markdown table of per-candidate means,\n *                            95% bootstrap CIs, BH-adjusted Wilcoxon\n *                            p-values, and Cohen's d versus a\n *                            comparator candidate.\n *   - `paretoChart`         Abstract spec for a cost vs quality\n *                            scatter, with gate decisions overlaid.\n *                            Returns numbers + labels — caller\n *                            chooses the plotting library.\n *   - `gainHistogram`\n *                            Per-item paired holdout deltas as a\n *                            histogram spec (bins + counts + median +\n *                            CI). Same \"data, not images\" contract.\n *\n * The figure types are PlotSpecs — JSON-friendly, library-agnostic.\n * They aren't React components and they aren't PNGs; they are\n * what you'd hand to vega-lite, plotly, matplotlib, or your own\n * Canvas renderer to draw the actual figure.\n */\n\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from './paired-arms'\nimport type { FailureClusterReport } from './pipelines/failure-cluster'\nimport { hashJson } from './pre-registration'\nimport { observedSplitScore, type ScorePreference } from './rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport {\n  benjaminiHochberg,\n  confidenceInterval,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\nimport { makeRng } from './statistics/internal'\n\n// ── summaryTable ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SummaryTableOptions {\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Wilcoxon + paired Cohen's dz are computed\n   *  versus this candidate. Required for paired stats columns. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to read scores from. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the bootstrap CI on the mean. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR for BH adjustment of the comparison p-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTableRow {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  /** BH-adjusted q-value vs comparator, or null when unavailable. */\n  qValue: number | null\n  /** Paired Cohen's dz vs comparator, or null when the paired variance is zero. */\n  cohensD: number | null\n  /** Matched observations used for paired comparison, or null on the comparator row. */\n  pairedN: number | null\n  /** Candidate observations without a comparator match. */\n  unpairedCandidateN: number | null\n  /** Comparator observations without a candidate match. */\n  unpairedComparatorN: number | null\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTable {\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[]\n  comparator: string | null\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Pre-rendered markdown — drop into a paper or PR. */\n  markdown: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Table 1 helper. Buckets runs by `candidateId`, computes mean +\n * bootstrap CI on the chosen split, and (when a comparator is given)\n * BH-adjusted Wilcoxon p + paired Cohen's dz versus that comparator.\n */\nexport function summaryTable(runs: RunRecord[], opts: SummaryTableOptions = {}): SummaryTable {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n\n  const byCandidate = new Map<string, { runs: RunRecord[]; scores: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    // RAW (`observedSplitScore`): every figure in this module reports what the\n    // runs scored. Zeroing a gamed run here would erase it from the very table\n    // a reviewer reads to notice it, and the split is already filtered above,\n    // so the exact-split reader is the right one — no cross-split fallback.\n    const v = observedSplitScore(r, split)\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? { runs: [], scores: [] }\n    bucket.runs.push(r)\n    bucket.scores.push(v)\n    byCandidate.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const candidateIds = [...byCandidate.keys()].sort()\n  const compRuns = comparator ? byCandidate.get(comparator) : undefined\n\n  // First pass: per-candidate means + CIs + raw p-values.\n  const tentative: Array<SummaryTableRow & { rawP: number | null }> = []\n  for (const id of candidateIds) {\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(id)!\n    const ci = confidenceInterval(bucket.scores, confidence)\n    let rawP: number | null = null\n    let d: number | null = null\n    let pairedN: number | null = null\n    let unpairedCandidateN: number | null = null\n    let unpairedComparatorN: number | null = null\n    if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {\n      const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, split)\n      pairedN = paired.before.length\n      unpairedCandidateN = paired.unpairedCandidateN\n      unpairedComparatorN = paired.unpairedComparatorN\n      if (paired.before.length >= 6) {\n        rawP = wilcoxonSignedRank(paired.before, paired.after).p\n      }\n      d = pairedCohensDz(paired.before, paired.after)\n    }\n    tentative.push({\n      candidateId: id,\n      n: bucket.scores.length,\n      mean: ci.mean,\n      ciLow: ci.lower,\n      ciHigh: ci.upper,\n      qValue: rawP,\n      cohensD: d,\n      pairedN,\n      unpairedCandidateN,\n      unpairedComparatorN,\n      rawP,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // BH-adjust across the comparison set (skip NaN rows / the\n  // comparator itself). Adjustment is a no-op when there are 0 or 1\n  // comparators.\n  if (comparator) {\n    const idxs: number[] = []\n    const ps: number[] = []\n    for (let i = 0; i < tentative.length; i++) {\n      const r = tentative[i]!\n      if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue\n      if (r.rawP === null || !Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue\n      idxs.push(i)\n      ps.push(r.rawP)\n    }\n    if (ps.length > 0) {\n      const { qValues } = benjaminiHochberg(ps, fdr)\n      for (let k = 0; k < idxs.length; k++) {\n        tentative[idxs[k]!]!.qValue = qValues[k]!\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  const rows = tentative.map(({ rawP: _rawP, ...rest }) => rest)\n  const markdown = renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split)\n  return { rows, comparator, split, markdown }\n}\n\nfunction pairScoresByKey(\n  candidate: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: ScorePreference,\n): {\n  before: number[]\n  after: number[]\n  unpairedCandidateN: number\n  unpairedComparatorN: number\n} {\n  // RAW, split-exact reads through `observedSplitScore` — the single allowed\n  // spelling of the split-score derivation (see rollout/score-derivation-guard).\n  const scoreOf = (run: RunRecord): number | undefined => {\n    const v = observedSplitScore(run, split)\n    return typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : undefined\n  }\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== undefined)\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== undefined)\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  return {\n    before: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.baseline) as number),\n    after: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.treatment) as number),\n    unpairedCandidateN: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,\n    unpairedComparatorN: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction renderSummaryTableMarkdown(\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[],\n  comparator: string | null,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const cmpLabel = comparator ? ` (vs ${comparator})` : ''\n  lines.push(`Summary Table — ${split} split${cmpLabel}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\"| Candidate | N | Pairs | Unpaired | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen's dz |\")\n  lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|')\n  for (const r of rows) {\n    const ci = `[${fmt(r.ciLow)}, ${fmt(r.ciHigh)}]`\n    const q = r.qValue !== null ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : '—'\n    const d = r.cohensD !== null ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : '—'\n    const paired = r.pairedN ?? '—'\n    const unpaired =\n      r.unpairedCandidateN === null || r.unpairedComparatorN === null\n        ? '—'\n        : `${r.unpairedCandidateN}/${r.unpairedComparatorN}`\n    lines.push(\n      `| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${paired} | ${unpaired} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n')\n}\n\n// ── paretoChart ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface ParetoPoint {\n  candidateId: string\n  /** Mean USD cost per run on the chosen split. */\n  cost: number\n  /** Mean score on the chosen split. */\n  quality: number\n  /** Number of runs that informed this point. */\n  n: number\n  /** Whether this candidate is on the Pareto frontier — high\n   *  quality, low cost, no dominator. */\n  onFrontier: boolean\n  /** Optional gate verdict for this candidate, if a `GateDecision`\n   *  for it was passed in. */\n  gate?: 'promote' | 'reject'\n}\n\nexport interface ParetoFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'pareto-cost-quality'\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  points: ParetoPoint[]\n  axes: { x: 'costUsd'; y: 'score' }\n}\n\n/**\n * Cost vs quality scatter spec. `gateDecisions` is keyed by\n * candidate id; if present, every point picks up the gate verdict\n * for overlay.\n */\nexport function paretoChart(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: {\n    split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  } = {},\n): ParetoFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n\n  const buckets = new Map<string, { cost: number[]; quality: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    const v = observedSplitScore(r, split)\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    if (r.costUsd === null) continue\n    const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? { cost: [], quality: [] }\n    bucket.cost.push(r.costUsd)\n    bucket.quality.push(v)\n    buckets.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const points: ParetoPoint[] = []\n  for (const [candidateId, bucket] of buckets.entries()) {\n    points.push({\n      candidateId,\n      cost: avg(bucket.cost),\n      quality: avg(bucket.quality),\n      n: bucket.cost.length,\n      onFrontier: false,\n      gate: opts.gateDecisions?.[candidateId]\n        ? gateLabel(opts.gateDecisions[candidateId]!)\n        : undefined,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // Pareto: minimize cost, maximize quality. A point is dominated if\n  // some other point has lower-or-equal cost AND higher-or-equal\n  // quality with strict inequality somewhere.\n  for (const p of points) {\n    p.onFrontier = !points.some((q) => q !== p && dominates(q, p))\n  }\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'pareto-cost-quality',\n    split,\n    axes: { x: 'costUsd', y: 'score' },\n    points,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction dominates(a: ParetoPoint, b: ParetoPoint): boolean {\n  return a.cost <= b.cost && a.quality >= b.quality && (a.cost < b.cost || a.quality > b.quality)\n}\n\nfunction gateLabel(d: GateDecision): ParetoPoint['gate'] {\n  return d.promote ? 'promote' : 'reject'\n}\n\n// ── gainHistogram ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface GainDistributionBin {\n  /** Inclusive lower edge. */\n  lo: number\n  /** Exclusive upper edge (or inclusive if it's the last bin). */\n  hi: number\n  /** Number of pairs whose delta lands in this bin. */\n  count: number\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'gain-distribution'\n  candidateId: string\n  comparator: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Number of pairs used. */\n  n: number\n  /** Candidate rows without a comparator match. */\n  unpairedCandidateN: number\n  /** Comparator rows without a candidate match. */\n  unpairedComparatorN: number\n  bins: GainDistributionBin[]\n  median: number | null\n  ci: { low: number; high: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionOptions {\n  /** Number of histogram bins. Default 11 (so the centre is exact at 0). */\n  bins?: number\n  /** Which split to use. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the CI. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */\n  resamples?: number\n  /** Deterministic seed. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Held-out improvement distribution: per-pair delta (candidate −\n * comparator), histogrammed. Includes the bootstrap CI on the median\n * delta — same primitive the promotion gate uses.\n */\nexport function gainHistogram(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: GainDistributionOptions = {},\n): GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const binCount = opts.bins ?? 11\n  if (binCount < 1) throw new Error('gainHistogram: bins must be ≥ 1')\n\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === split)\n  // pairScoresByKey returns before=baseline-score, after=candidate-score\n  // for each canonical work-identity pair where both sides recorded a\n  // valid score on this split. delta = after - before = candidate - baseline.\n  const { before, after, unpairedCandidateN, unpairedComparatorN } = pairScoresByKey(\n    candidate,\n    baseline,\n    split,\n  )\n  const n = before.length\n\n  if (n === 0) {\n    return {\n      kind: 'gain-distribution',\n      candidateId,\n      comparator,\n      split,\n      n: 0,\n      unpairedCandidateN,\n      unpairedComparatorN,\n      bins: [],\n      median: null,\n      ci: null,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const median = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const min = sortedDeltas[0]!\n  const max = sortedDeltas[sortedDeltas.length - 1]!\n\n  // Symmetric bins around the wider of (|min|, |max|) so the chart\n  // visually centres on zero without dropping outliers.\n  const bound = Math.max(Math.abs(min), Math.abs(max), 1e-6)\n  const lo = -bound\n  const hi = bound\n  const width = (hi - lo) / binCount\n  const bins: GainDistributionBin[] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < binCount; i++) {\n    bins.push({ lo: lo + i * width, hi: lo + (i + 1) * width, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const d of deltas) {\n    let idx = Math.floor((d - lo) / width)\n    if (idx < 0) idx = 0\n    if (idx >= binCount) idx = binCount - 1\n    bins[idx]!.count += 1\n  }\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence ?? 0.95,\n    resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'gain-distribution',\n    candidateId,\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    n,\n    unpairedCandidateN,\n    unpairedComparatorN,\n    bins,\n    median,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── researchReport ───────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport type ResearchReportDecision =\n  | 'promote'\n  | 'hold'\n  | 'reject'\n  | 'equivalent'\n  | 'needs_more_data'\n\n/**\n * Hard floor below which a paired comparison is treated as uninformative\n * regardless of `minPairs`. Mirrors the lower limit on Wilcoxon signed-rank\n * exact tables; below this the test has no power to separate effect sizes.\n */\nexport const RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6\n\nexport interface ResearchReportOptions {\n  /** Human-readable report title. */\n  title?: string\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Required for statistical decision guidance. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to use for the primary decision. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level used by lower-level report helpers. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR threshold for q-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n  /**\n   * Soft floor on paired observations before issuing a directional\n   * promote / reject. Below this we report `needs_more_data` and surface the\n   * minimum detectable effect at the current N. Default 20 — chosen so the\n   * Wilcoxon signed-rank approximation is reasonable and so the paired\n   * bootstrap CI has non-degenerate coverage. Hard floor is enforced at\n   * `RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR` (6) regardless of this value.\n   */\n  minPairs?: number\n  /**\n   * Region of Practical Equivalence on the paired delta. When a candidate's\n   * paired-delta CI is fully contained in `[low, high]`, the decision is\n   * `equivalent` rather than `hold`. Sourced from the domain owner — there is\n   * no statistically-defensible default.\n   */\n  rope?: { low: number; high: number }\n  /**\n   * Power for the minimum detectable effect (MDE) reported on each candidate.\n   * Default 0.8.\n   */\n  mdePower?: number\n  /**\n   * Two-sided alpha for the MDE. Default matches `fdr` so the reported MDE\n   * lines up with the test the report actually runs.\n   */\n  mdeAlpha?: number\n  /** Optional held-out gate decisions keyed by candidate id. */\n  gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  /** Optional failure clusters from failureClusterView. */\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  /** Build gain histograms for these candidates. Defaults to all non-comparator candidates. */\n  candidateIds?: string[]\n  /** Deterministic bootstrap seed passed to gainHistogram and the posterior helper. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Report timestamp. Defaults to current time. */\n  generatedAt?: string\n  /**\n   * Hash of a preregistered protocol (e.g. `signManifest({...}).contentHash`).\n   * Embedded verbatim in the report so the analysis can be cited as the\n   * preregistered one rather than a post-hoc fishing expedition.\n   */\n  preregistrationHash?: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  candidateId: string | null\n  rationale: string[]\n  risks: string[]\n  nextActions: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportCandidate {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  qValue: number | null\n  cohensD: number | null\n  meanDeltaVsComparator: number | null\n  pairedN: number\n  medianGain: number | null\n  meanGain: number | null\n  gainCi: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  /**\n   * Bayesian-bootstrap posterior summaries on the paired mean delta.\n   * Dirichlet(1, ..., 1) weights represent uncertainty over the empirical\n   * distribution of matched deltas.\n   */\n  prGreaterThanZero: number | null\n  prInRope: number | null\n  /**\n   * Minimum detectable effect (in score units) at the candidate's paired N,\n   * the configured power, and the configured alpha. Standardised by the\n   * observed paired-delta SD and inverted via `requiredSampleSize`. Reported\n   * for every candidate so a `needs_more_data` verdict is actionable.\n   */\n  mde: number | null\n  onParetoFrontier: boolean\n  gate?: ParetoPoint['gate']\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  decisionReason: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportMethodology {\n  /**\n   * Plain-language assumptions the report depends on. Read these first when\n   * deciding whether the verdict is load-bearing for a launch decision.\n   */\n  assumptions: string[]\n  /** Tests and estimators the verdict was computed from. */\n  methods: string[]\n  /** Alternatives the author considered and why this report didn't take them. */\n  alternatives: string[]\n  /** Failure modes — when this report should NOT drive a decision. */\n  whenNotToApply: string[]\n  /** Citations for the methodological choices above. */\n  citations: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReport {\n  kind: 'agent-eval-research-report'\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  /**\n   * SHA-256 over the canonicalised set of `(runId, candidateId, split)` triples\n   * the report was computed from, plus the comparator and split. Stable across\n   * key insertion order; recomputable by the reader to verify provenance.\n   */\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  charts: {\n    pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n    gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  }\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  markdown: string\n  html: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Internal: paired posterior summary on (candidate − comparator) deltas.\n *\n * Returns the bootstrap CI on the median (matching `gainHistogram`) plus\n * Bayesian-bootstrap posterior summaries Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) computed\n * from Dirichlet(1, ..., 1) weights on the observed paired deltas\n * (Rubin 1981), and the\n * minimum detectable paired effect at the configured power and α.\n *\n * `null` is returned when no paired observations exist; callers must\n * gate on `n` before consuming the bootstrap statistics.\n */\nfunction pairedPosterior(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: {\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    confidence: number\n    seed?: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    mdePower: number\n    mdeAlpha: number\n  },\n): {\n  n: number\n  meanDelta: number\n  medianDelta: number\n  sdDelta: number\n  ci: { low: number; high: number }\n  prGreaterThanZero: number\n  prInRope: number | null\n  mde: number\n} | null {\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, opts.split)\n  const n = before.length\n  if (n === 0) return null\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const meanDelta = deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const medianDelta = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const sdDelta = stdev(deltas, meanDelta)\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  const meanSamples = bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, 2000, opts.seed)\n  const prGreaterThanZero =\n    meanSamples.length === 0 ? 0 : meanSamples.filter((s) => s > 0).length / meanSamples.length\n  const prInRope =\n    opts.rope === null || meanSamples.length === 0\n      ? null\n      : meanSamples.filter((s) => s >= opts.rope!.low && s <= opts.rope!.high).length /\n        meanSamples.length\n\n  const dStandardised = pairedMde({ nPaired: n, alpha: opts.mdeAlpha, power: opts.mdePower })\n  const mde = sdDelta === 0 ? 0 : dStandardised * sdDelta\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    meanDelta,\n    medianDelta,\n    sdDelta,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n    prGreaterThanZero,\n    prInRope,\n    mde,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(\n  deltas: number[],\n  resamples: number,\n  seed?: number,\n): number[] {\n  const n = deltas.length\n  if (n === 0) return []\n  if (n === 1) return new Array<number>(resamples).fill(deltas[0]!)\n  const rng = makeRng(seed, deltas)\n  const samples = new Array<number>(resamples)\n  for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {\n    let weightedSum = 0\n    let weightSum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {\n      const weight = -Math.log(Math.max(Number.MIN_VALUE, rng()))\n      weightedSum += deltas[k]! * weight\n      weightSum += weight\n    }\n    samples[b] = weightedSum / weightSum\n  }\n  return samples\n}\n\nfunction stdev(xs: number[], mean: number): number {\n  if (xs.length < 2) return 0\n  let sse = 0\n  for (const x of xs) sse += (x - mean) ** 2\n  return Math.sqrt(sse / (xs.length - 1))\n}\n\n/**\n * Executive research report for CPO / AI-lead / launch-review consumption.\n *\n * Composes:\n *   - `summaryTable`         marginal stats with BH-FDR-adjusted q-values\n *   - `paretoChart`           cost-vs-quality frontier with gate overlay\n *   - `gainHistogram`         per-candidate paired-delta distribution\n *   - paired posterior (this file): bootstrap CI on median, Bayesian-bootstrap Pr(Δ>0),\n *                              Pr(Δ∈ROPE), MDE at the configured power\n *\n * Decisions are made on paired evidence — never on marginal means alone —\n * and respect any held-out gate decision the caller passes through. The\n * report embeds a SHA-256 fingerprint of the input run set and, optionally,\n * the hash of a preregistered protocol so a downstream reader can verify\n * provenance and that the analysis was the preregistered one.\n *\n * Async because the fingerprint uses Web Crypto via `hashJson`; deterministic\n * for any fixed `runs`, `seed`, and ROPE.\n */\nexport async function researchReport(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: ResearchReportOptions = {},\n): Promise<ResearchReport> {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const minPairs = Math.max(opts.minPairs ?? 20, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR)\n  const rope = opts.rope ?? null\n  const mdePower = opts.mdePower ?? 0.8\n  const mdeAlpha = opts.mdeAlpha ?? fdr\n  const title = opts.title ?? 'Agent Evaluation Research Report'\n  const generatedAt = opts.generatedAt ?? new Date().toISOString()\n  const preregistrationHash = opts.preregistrationHash ?? null\n\n  if (rope && !(Number.isFinite(rope.low) && Number.isFinite(rope.high) && rope.low <= rope.high)) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `researchReport: rope must satisfy low ≤ high with finite bounds, got ${JSON.stringify(rope)}`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  const summary = summaryTable(runs, {\n    comparator: comparator ?? undefined,\n    split,\n    confidence,\n    fdr,\n  })\n  const pareto = paretoChart(runs, { split, gateDecisions: opts.gateDecisions })\n  const candidateIds =\n    opts.candidateIds ?? summary.rows.map((r) => r.candidateId).filter((id) => id !== comparator)\n  const gains = comparator\n    ? candidateIds.map((id) =>\n        gainHistogram(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n        }),\n      )\n    : []\n\n  const gainByCandidate = new Map(gains.map((g) => [g.candidateId, g]))\n  const paretoByCandidate = new Map(pareto.points.map((p) => [p.candidateId, p]))\n  const posteriorByCandidate = new Map<string, ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior>>()\n  if (comparator) {\n    for (const id of candidateIds) {\n      posteriorByCandidate.set(\n        id,\n        pairedPosterior(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n          rope,\n          mdePower,\n          mdeAlpha,\n        }),\n      )\n    }\n  }\n\n  const candidates = summary.rows\n    .map((row) => {\n      const gain = gainByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const point = paretoByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const posterior = posteriorByCandidate.get(row.candidateId) ?? null\n      const gateDecision = opts.gateDecisions?.[row.candidateId]\n      const classified = classifyCandidate(row, {\n        comparator,\n        posterior,\n        point,\n        gateDecision,\n        split,\n        fdr,\n        minPairs,\n        rope,\n      })\n      return {\n        candidateId: row.candidateId,\n        n: row.n,\n        mean: row.mean,\n        ciLow: row.ciLow,\n        ciHigh: row.ciHigh,\n        qValue: row.qValue,\n        cohensD: row.cohensD,\n        meanDeltaVsComparator: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        pairedN: posterior?.n ?? gain?.n ?? 0,\n        medianGain: posterior ? posterior.medianDelta : gain ? gain.median : null,\n        meanGain: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        gainCi: posterior ? posterior.ci : gain ? gain.ci : null,\n        prGreaterThanZero: posterior ? posterior.prGreaterThanZero : null,\n        prInRope: posterior ? posterior.prInRope : null,\n        mde: posterior ? posterior.mde : null,\n        onParetoFrontier: point?.onFrontier ?? false,\n        gate: gateDecision ? gateLabel(gateDecision) : undefined,\n        decision: classified.decision,\n        decisionReason: classified.reason,\n      } satisfies ResearchReportCandidate\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => {\n      const decisionRank = decisionWeight(b.decision) - decisionWeight(a.decision)\n      if (decisionRank !== 0) return decisionRank\n      return b.mean - a.mean\n    })\n\n  const recommendation = buildRecommendation(candidates, {\n    comparator,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    rope,\n    minPairs,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const executiveSummary = buildExecutiveSummary(candidates, recommendation, {\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const methodology = buildMethodology({\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    fdr,\n    minPairs,\n    rope,\n    confidence,\n    mdePower,\n    mdeAlpha,\n  })\n\n  const runFingerprint = await hashJson({\n    triples: runs\n      .filter((r) => r.splitTag === split)\n      .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, candidateId: r.candidateId, splitTag: r.splitTag }))\n      .sort((a, b) => a.runId.localeCompare(b.runId)),\n    comparator,\n    split,\n  })\n\n  const markdown = renderResearchMarkdown({\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    rope,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    pareto,\n    gains,\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n  })\n  const html = renderResearchHtml(markdown, title)\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'agent-eval-research-report',\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    rope,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    charts: { pareto, gains },\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    markdown,\n    html,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildMethodology(ctx: {\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  fdr: number\n  minPairs: number\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  confidence: number\n  mdePower: number\n  mdeAlpha: number\n}): ResearchReportMethodology {\n  const assumptions: string[] = [\n    'Pairs are matched by (experimentId, scenarioId, seed); input order does not affect the comparison.',\n    'Paired deltas are exchangeable conditional on the matched scenario — no mid-run distribution shift.',\n    `Decisions are pre-specified at fdr=${ctx.fdr}, minPairs=${ctx.minPairs}, confidence=${ctx.confidence}; deviating from these post-hoc invalidates the false-discovery control.`,\n  ]\n  if (ctx.rope) {\n    assumptions.push(\n      `The Region of Practical Equivalence ${formatRope(ctx.rope)} is supplied by the domain owner; equivalent verdicts are only meaningful if that range is treated as the standing definition of \"no material difference.\"`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.comparator === null) {\n    assumptions.push('No comparator was configured; this run is descriptive, not causal.')\n  }\n  const methods: string[] = [\n    \"Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and paired Cohen's dz via summaryTable.\",\n    'Paired evidence summarised with a frequentist bootstrap CI on the median delta and a Dirichlet-weight Bayesian bootstrap for Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) on the mean delta.',\n    `Minimum detectable effect reported per candidate at α=${ctx.mdeAlpha} (two-sided), power=${ctx.mdePower}, standardised by the observed paired-delta SD.`,\n    'Pareto frontier flagged as a separate axis (cost vs quality); a candidate can be on-frontier without winning the paired test.',\n    'Held-out gate decisions, when supplied, override the statistical verdict in the reject direction.',\n  ]\n  const alternatives: string[] = [\n    'Paired t-test rejected: not robust to the heavy-tailed score distributions common in agent benchmarks.',\n    'Unpaired Mann–Whitney rejected: matched scenarios make pairing free; unpaired throws away that variance reduction.',\n    'Sequential / always-valid inference (e-values, mSPRT) is the right tool for iterative sweeps and is out of scope for this single-look report — preregister and run once, or wrap this report in an alpha-spending schedule.',\n    'Hierarchical Bayesian shrinkage across many candidates is future work; the current ranking uses raw paired statistics.',\n  ]\n  const whenNotToApply: string[] = [\n    `Paired N below ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} on any candidate — the bootstrap CI is degenerate.`,\n    'Comparator chosen post-hoc by inspecting the same data; q-values are no longer false-discovery-controlled.',\n    'Scenarios not drawn under a stable preregistered protocol; the report can describe the data but cannot anchor a launch decision.',\n    'Score distributions with mid-run shift (judge model swap, rubric change, infra outage) — pair exchangeability is violated.',\n  ]\n  const citations: string[] = [\n    'Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. JRSS B, 57(1), 289–300.',\n    'Wilcoxon, F. (1945). Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bulletin, 1(6), 80–83.',\n    'Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1–26.',\n    'Rubin, D. B. (1981). The Bayesian bootstrap. Annals of Statistics, 9(1), 130–134.',\n    'Kruschke, J. K. (2018). Rejecting or accepting parameter values in Bayesian estimation. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1(2), 270–280. (ROPE.)',\n  ]\n  return { assumptions, methods, alternatives, whenNotToApply, citations }\n}\n\nfunction formatRope(rope: { low: number; high: number }): string {\n  return `[${fmt(rope.low)}, ${fmt(rope.high)}]`\n}\n\nfunction classifyCandidate(\n  row: SummaryTableRow,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    posterior: ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior> | null\n    point?: ParetoPoint\n    gateDecision?: GateDecision\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    fdr: number\n    minPairs: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  },\n): { decision: ResearchReportDecision; reason: string } {\n  if (ctx.comparator && row.candidateId === ctx.comparator) {\n    return { decision: 'hold', reason: 'Comparator baseline.' }\n  }\n  if (ctx.gateDecision && !ctx.gateDecision.promote) {\n    const code = ctx.gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? 'rejected'\n    return {\n      decision: 'reject',\n      reason: `Held-out gate returned ${code}: ${ctx.gateDecision.reason}`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    return {\n      decision: ctx.point?.onFrontier ? 'hold' : 'needs_more_data',\n      reason:\n        'No comparator configured; report ranks candidates but cannot anchor a promotion call.',\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.posterior || ctx.posterior.n < RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior?.n ?? 0} paired observations; below hard floor of ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} for any paired inference.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const ci = ctx.posterior.ci\n  if (ctx.split === 'search') {\n    return {\n      decision: 'hold',\n      reason:\n        'Search-split evidence is descriptive; release decisions require matched holdout runs.',\n    }\n  }\n  // A ZERO-WIDTH interval cannot support any directional or equivalence claim:\n  // every resample was identical, so it says nothing about how far the estimate\n  // could be wrong. It is the shape that sits fully inside any ROPE containing\n  // it (a fake \"practically equivalent\") and clears any threshold below it (a\n  // fake \"promote\"). Both are an absence of evidence, so it is disqualified from\n  // each claim rather than short-circuiting the whole classifier — the\n  // sample-size and MDE diagnostics below are still the more useful answer when\n  // they apply.\n  const degenerate = !Number.isFinite(ci.low) || !Number.isFinite(ci.high) || ci.low === ci.high\n  if (!degenerate && ctx.rope && ci.low >= ctx.rope.low && ci.high <= ctx.rope.high) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'equivalent',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] is fully inside ROPE ${formatRope(ctx.rope)}; candidate is practically equivalent to comparator.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const gainPositive = !degenerate && ci.low > 0\n  const gainNegative = !degenerate && ci.high < 0\n  if (gainNegative) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'reject',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] lies entirely below zero.`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (ctx.posterior.n < ctx.minPairs) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior.n} paired observations; minimum detectable effect at this N is ${fmt(ctx.posterior.mde)} score units (need ≥ ${ctx.minPairs} pairs to issue a directional verdict).`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (degenerate) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] has zero width — every resample was identical, so the interval carries no information about how far the estimate could be wrong and cannot support a promote or equivalence call.`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (row.qValue !== null && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr && gainPositive) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'promote',\n      reason: `BH-adjusted q=${fmt(row.qValue)} ≤ ${ctx.fdr} and paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] excludes zero; Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)}.`,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    decision: 'hold',\n    reason: `Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)} but CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] crosses zero; effect not decisive at fdr=${ctx.fdr}.`,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendation(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    minPairs: number\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  const bestPromote = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'promote')\n  const bestEquivalent = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent')\n  const chosen = bestPromote ?? bestEquivalent ?? nonComparator[0] ?? null\n  const decision: ResearchReportDecision = bestPromote\n    ? 'promote'\n    : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n      ? 'needs_more_data'\n      : bestEquivalent\n        ? 'equivalent'\n        : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'hold')\n          ? 'hold'\n          : 'reject'\n\n  const rationale: string[] = []\n  const risks: string[] = []\n  const nextActions: string[] = []\n\n  if (chosen) {\n    rationale.push(`${chosen.candidateId}: ${chosen.decisionReason}`)\n    if (chosen.gainCi) {\n      const probSummary =\n        chosen.prGreaterThanZero !== null ? `, Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(chosen.prGreaterThanZero)}` : ''\n      rationale.push(\n        `Median paired gain CI: [${fmt(chosen.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(chosen.gainCi.high)}]${probSummary}.`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (chosen.mde !== null && Number.isFinite(chosen.mde)) {\n      rationale.push(`MDE at current paired N=${chosen.pairedN}: ${fmt(chosen.mde)} score units.`)\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    risks.push('No comparator was configured; verdict is descriptive, not causal.')\n    nextActions.push('Re-run with a stable comparator candidate for paired inference.')\n  }\n  if (!ctx.preregistrationHash) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No preregistration hash supplied; readers cannot verify the analysis was specified before data inspection.',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Sign a HypothesisManifest before the next sweep and pass `preregistrationHash` so the report cites it.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.rope === null && nonComparator.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No ROPE configured; the report cannot distinguish \"equivalent\" from \"inconclusive\".',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Define a domain-specific Region of Practical Equivalence and pass it to lock in the equivalence threshold.',\n    )\n  }\n  const inconclusive = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n  if (inconclusive.length > 0) {\n    const worst = inconclusive.reduce((a, b) => (b.pairedN < a.pairedN ? b : a))\n    risks.push(\n      `${inconclusive.length} candidate(s) below soft floor (${ctx.minPairs} pairs); thinnest is ${worst.candidateId} with ${worst.pairedN}.`,\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      `Collect at least ${ctx.minPairs - worst.pairedN} more matched holdout runs for ${worst.candidateId}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject')\n  if (rejected.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      `${rejected.length} candidate(s) failed the paired test or held-out gate; do not ship those variants.`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    risks.push(`Top failure cluster: ${top.failureClass} across ${top.runCount} run(s).`)\n    nextActions.push('Prioritize the largest failure cluster before broad rollout.')\n  }\n  if (decision === 'promote') {\n    nextActions.push('Ship behind the existing promotion gate and monitor canaries.')\n  } else if (decision === 'hold') {\n    nextActions.push('Keep current production candidate while expanding holdout evidence.')\n  } else if (decision === 'equivalent') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Either keep the comparator (no quality regression) or promote on cost/latency grounds — equivalence does not justify either; the choice is a product decision, not a stats one.',\n    )\n  } else if (decision === 'reject') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Do not promote this sweep; inspect failures and generate a revised candidate.',\n    )\n  }\n\n  return {\n    decision,\n    candidateId: chosen?.candidateId ?? null,\n    rationale,\n    risks,\n    nextActions,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildExecutiveSummary(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): string[] {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  lines.push(\n    `Evaluated ${nonComparator.length} candidate(s) on the ${ctx.split} split${ctx.comparator ? ` against ${ctx.comparator}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  lines.push(\n    `Recommendation: ${recommendation.decision}${recommendation.candidateId ? ` ${recommendation.candidateId}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  const promoted = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'promote').length\n  const held = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'hold').length\n  const equivalent = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent').length\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject').length\n  const more = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data').length\n  lines.push(\n    `Decision mix: ${promoted} promote, ${equivalent} equivalent, ${held} hold, ${rejected} reject, ${more} need more data.`,\n  )\n  const frontier = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.onParetoFrontier).map((c) => c.candidateId)\n  if (frontier.length > 0) lines.push(`Pareto-frontier candidates: ${frontier.join(', ')}.`)\n  if (ctx.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push(\n      `Failure clustering found ${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures}/${ctx.failureClusters.totalRuns} failed runs across ${ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length} reportable cluster(s).`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push(\n    ctx.preregistrationHash\n      ? `Preregistered analysis: ${ctx.preregistrationHash.slice(0, 12)}…`\n      : 'Analysis is post-hoc — no preregistration hash supplied.',\n  )\n  return lines\n}\n\nfunction renderResearchMarkdown(report: {\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n  gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n}): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push(`# ${report.title}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Generated:** ${report.generatedAt}`)\n  lines.push(`**Primary split:** ${report.split}`)\n  lines.push(`**Comparator:** ${report.comparator ?? 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**ROPE:** ${report.rope ? formatRope(report.rope) : 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**Run fingerprint:** \\`${report.runFingerprint}\\``)\n  lines.push(\n    `**Preregistration:** ${report.preregistrationHash ? `\\`${report.preregistrationHash}\\`` : 'none'}`,\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Executive Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.executiveSummary) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Recommendation')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Decision:** ${report.recommendation.decision}`)\n  lines.push(`**Candidate:** ${report.recommendation.candidateId ?? 'N/A'}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Rationale')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.rationale) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Risks')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.risks.length\n    ? report.recommendation.risks\n    : ['No material report-level risks detected.']) {\n    lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Next Actions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.nextActions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Candidate Decision Table')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    '| Candidate | Decision | Mean | Δ̄ | Pr(Δ>0) | q | dz | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |',\n  )\n  lines.push('|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|---|')\n  for (const c of report.candidates) {\n    const delta = c.meanDeltaVsComparator === null ? 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'-'} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Statistical Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(report.summary.markdown)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Methodology')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Assumptions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.assumptions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Methods')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.methods) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Alternatives Considered')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.alternatives) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### When NOT To Apply')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.whenNotToApply) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Citations')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.citations) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Chart Specs')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    'The report carries JSON chart specs for Pareto cost/quality and paired gain histograms.',\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('```json')\n  lines.push(JSON.stringify({ pareto: report.pareto, gains: report.gains }, null, 2))\n  lines.push('```')\n  if (report.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('## Failure Clusters')\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('| Failure Class | Runs | Scenarios | Tool | Example |')\n    lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---|---|')\n    for (const c of report.failureClusters.clusters.slice(0, 10)) {\n      lines.push(\n        `| ${c.failureClass} | ${c.runCount} | ${c.scenarioIds.length} | ${c.toolName ?? 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package/dist/{summary-report-CC07PhEL.d.ts → summary-report-DRstQNBX.d.ts}

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
-import { a as RunRecord } from "./run-record-VVy4T9OW.js";
+import { a as RunRecord } from "./run-record-DQjRcYwA.js";
 import { r as PairedDecisionStatistic } from "./paired-promotion-decision-CGzg0cI_.js";
-import { n as FailureClusterReport } from "./failure-cluster-CXL8NbEw.js";
+import { n as FailureClusterReport } from "./failure-cluster-6YSvsKlp.js";
 //#region src/held-out-gate.d.ts
 type HeldOutGateRejectionCode = 'few_runs' | 'incomplete_coverage' | 'missing_split_scores' | 'missing_cost' | 'negative_delta' | 'indeterminate_delta' | 'overfit_gap' | 'cost_ceiling';
 /**
@@ -526,4 +526,4 @@ interface ResearchReport {
 declare function researchReport(runs: RunRecord[], opts?: ResearchReportOptions): Promise<ResearchReport>;
 //#endregion
 export { HeldOutGateConfig as C, HeldOutGate as S, SplitCoverage as T, paretoChart as _, ParetoPoint as a, GateDecision as b, ResearchReportCandidate as c, ResearchReportOptions as d, ResearchReportRecommendation as f, gainHistogram as g, SummaryTableRow as h, ParetoFigureSpec as i, ResearchReportDecision as l, SummaryTableOptions as m, GainDistributionFigureSpec as n, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR as o, SummaryTable as p, GainDistributionOptions as r, ResearchReport as s, GainDistributionBin as t, ResearchReportMethodology as u, researchReport as v, HeldOutGateRejectionCode as w, GateEvidence as x, summaryTable as y };
-//# sourceMappingURL=summary-report-CC07PhEL.d.ts.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=summary-report-DRstQNBX.d.ts.map

package/dist/{summary-report-CC07PhEL.d.ts.map → summary-report-DRstQNBX.d.ts.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
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