@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.161.1 → 0.170.0

package/dist/matrix/index.d.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { t as DefaultVerdict } from "../verdict-E4eRNf7-.js";
 import { p as CostProvenance } from "../cost-ledger-DbQdN3nO.js";
-import { a as MatrixCell, c as CellSpend, i as MatrixAxis, l as readCellSpend, n as AxisSummary, o as MatrixResult, r as CellResult, s as RunAgentMatrixOptions, t as runAgentMatrix, u as withCellSpend } from "../index-D_P7Ye43.js";
+import { t as DefaultVerdict } from "../verdict-E4eRNf7-.js";
+import { a as MatrixCell, c as CellSpend, i as MatrixAxis, l as readCellSpend, n as AxisSummary, o as MatrixResult, r as CellResult, s as RunAgentMatrixOptions, t as runAgentMatrix, u as withCellSpend } from "../index-DNgf5gyG.js";
 export { type AxisSummary, type CellResult, type CellSpend, type CostProvenance, type DefaultVerdict, type MatrixAxis, type MatrixCell, type MatrixResult, type RunAgentMatrixOptions, readCellSpend, runAgentMatrix, withCellSpend };

package/dist/{matrix-eXKRMHnL.d.ts → matrix-BpI5Trmo.d.ts}

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { p as CostProvenance } from "./cost-ledger-DbQdN3nO.js";
-import { w as JudgeScore } from "./types-D4s7Z6nq.js";
-import { o as MatrixResult } from "./index-D_P7Ye43.js";
+import { w as JudgeScore } from "./types-Dy237wiH.js";
+import { o as MatrixResult } from "./index-DNgf5gyG.js";
 import { AgentProfile } from "@tangle-network/agent-interface";
 //#region src/multishot/types.d.ts
 interface MultishotMessage {
@@ -398,4 +398,4 @@ interface RunMultishotMatrixResult {
 declare function runMultishotMatrix<TPersona extends MultishotPersona>(opts: RunMultishotMatrixOptions<TPersona>): Promise<RunMultishotMatrixResult>;
 //#endregion
 export { MultishotToolExecutor as A, MultishotFatalToolError as C, MultishotShape as D, MultishotResult as E, assertMultishotShotResult as F, MultishotTransportRequest as M, MultishotTransportResponse as N, MultishotShotResultError as O, MultishotTransportToolCall as P, MultishotDriverEmptyError as S, MultishotPersona as T, JudgeRunResult as _, MultishotCellOutput as a, runJudge as b, RunMultishotMatrixResult as c, MultishotShot as d, RunMultishotOptions as f, JudgeDimension as g, JudgeConfig as h, ConversationJudgeInput as i, MultishotTransport as j, MultishotToolDefinition as k, computeCellComposite as l, DEFAULT_JUDGE_MODEL as m, CellCompositeInput as n, MultishotJudges as o, runMultishot as p, CellCompositeScore as r, RunMultishotMatrixOptions as s, ArtifactJudgeInput as t, runMultishotMatrix as u, renderDimensions as v, MultishotMessage as w, MultishotArtifact as x, renderJsonFooter as y };
-//# sourceMappingURL=matrix-eXKRMHnL.d.ts.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=matrix-BpI5Trmo.d.ts.map

package/dist/{matrix-eXKRMHnL.d.ts.map → matrix-BpI5Trmo.d.ts.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"matrix-eXKRMHnL.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/multishot/types.ts","../src/multishot/judges.ts","../src/multishot/multishot.ts","../src/multishot/matrix.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;UAIiB;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA,YAAY;IAAQ;IAAY;IAAc,MAAM;;;UAGrC;EACf;EACA;EACA;IAAc;IAAc,MAAM;;EAClC;;UAGe;EACf,YAAY;EACZ,WAAW;EACX;EACA;;;EAGA;;;;;;;;EAQA,iBAAiB;;UAGF;EACf;EACA;IACE;IACA;IACA,YAAY;;;;;;UAOC;EACf;EACA,UAAU,MAAM;EAChB,QAAQ;EACR;EACA;EACA,SAAS;;UAGM;EACf;EACA;EACA;IAAY;IAAc;;;UAGX;EACf;IAAW;IAAyB,aAAa;;EACjD;IAAU;IAAwB;;;;EAGlC;;;;EAIA;;;;;;;;KASU,sBACV,KAAK,8BACF,QAAQ;KAED,yBACV,MAAM,yBACN;;EAEE,WAAW;EACX,SAAS;MAER;EAAU;EAAiB;;UAEf;;EAEf;;GAEC;;;;;;;;UASc,eAAe,iBAAiB;;EAE/C,eAAe,SAAS;;;EAGxB,2BAA2B,SAAS;;cAGzB,kCAAkC;WACjB;EAA5B,YAA4B;;cAMjB,gCAAgC;EAC3C,YAAY;;cAMD,iCAAiC;EAC5C,YAAY;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBAyBE,0BAA0B,yBAAyB,SAAS;;;cCvI/D;UAEI;;EAEf;;EAEA;;UAGe,YAAY;;EAE3B;;;EAGA,WAAW;;EAEX;;EAEA,YAAY;;EAEZ;;;EAGA,cAAc,OAAO;;EAErB;;UAGe;;EAEf,OAAO;;EAEP,MAAM;;iBAGc,SAAS,QAC7B,OAAO,YAAY,SACnB,OAAO,SACN,QAAQ;;;iBAsIK,iBAAiB,eAAe;;iBAKhC,iBAAiB,eAAe;;;UCxK/B,oBAAoB,iBAAiB;EACpD,SAAS;EACT,SAAS;;;EAGT,QAAQ,eAAe;;EAEvB,QAAQ;;EAER,gBAAgB,eAAe;;;;EAI/B,mBAAmB;EACnB;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA,gBAAgB;;;;EAIhB,iBAAiB;;;EAGjB,gBAAgB;EAChB,SAAS;;;;;;;;;;;KAYC,cAAc,iBAAiB,qBACzC,MAAM,oBAAoB,cACvB,QAAQ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBA2BS,aAAa,iBAAiB,kBAClD,MAAM,oBAAoB,YACzB,QAAQ;;;UClFM,uBAAuB,iBAAiB;EACvD,YAAY;EACZ,SAAS;;UAGM,mBAAmB,iBAAiB;EACnD,UAAU;EACV,SAAS;;UAGM,gBAAgB,iBAAiB;;EAEhD,cAAc,YAAY,uBAAuB;;EAEjD,aAAa,YAAY,mBAAmB;;EAE5C,iBAAiB,YAAY,mBAAmB;;EAEhD;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA,cAAc;EACd;IACE,aAAa,MAAM;MAAe;MAAc;;IAChD;;EAEF;IACE,aAAa,MAAM;MAAe;MAAc;;IAChD;;;UAIa,0BAA0B,iBAAiB;;EAE1D,UAAU;IAAQ;IAAY,OAAO;;;EAErC,UAAU;;;EAGV,QAAQ,eAAe;;EAEvB,QAAQ,gBAAgB;;EAExB,QAAQ;;EAER,gBAAgB,eAAe;;EAE/B,mBAAmB;;EAEnB;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;EAIA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;EAIA,gBAAgB;;EAEhB,iBAAiB;;;EAGjB,gBAAgB;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;EAehB,UAAU,cAAc;;;;;UAMT;EACf;EACA;EACA;;UAoBe;EACf,cAAc;;EAEd,cAAc,cAAc;;EAE5B,iBAAiB,cAAc;;;;;;;iBAQjB,qBAAqB,OAAO;EAC1C;EACA;EACA;EACA;;UAuBe;EACf,QAAQ,aAAa;;iBAGD,mBAAmB,iBAAiB,kBACxD,MAAM,0BAA0B,YAC/B,QAAQ"}
+{"version":3,"file":"matrix-BpI5Trmo.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/multishot/types.ts","../src/multishot/judges.ts","../src/multishot/multishot.ts","../src/multishot/matrix.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;UAIiB;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA,YAAY;IAAQ;IAAY;IAAc,MAAM;;;UAGrC;EACf;EACA;EACA;IAAc;IAAc,MAAM;;EAClC;;UAGe;EACf,YAAY;EACZ,WAAW;EACX;EACA;;;EAGA;;;;;;;;EAQA,iBAAiB;;UAGF;EACf;EACA;IACE;IACA;IACA,YAAY;;;;;;UAOC;EACf;EACA,UAAU,MAAM;EAChB,QAAQ;EACR;EACA;EACA,SAAS;;UAGM;EACf;EACA;EACA;IAAY;IAAc;;;UAGX;EACf;IAAW;IAAyB,aAAa;;EACjD;IAAU;IAAwB;;;;EAGlC;;;;EAIA;;;;;;;;KASU,sBACV,KAAK,8BACF,QAAQ;KAED,yBACV,MAAM,yBACN;;EAEE,WAAW;EACX,SAAS;MAER;EAAU;EAAiB;;UAEf;;EAEf;;GAEC;;;;;;;;UASc,eAAe,iBAAiB;;EAE/C,eAAe,SAAS;;;EAGxB,2BAA2B,SAAS;;cAGzB,kCAAkC;WACjB;EAA5B,YAA4B;;cAMjB,gCAAgC;EAC3C,YAAY;;cAMD,iCAAiC;EAC5C,YAAY;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBAyBE,0BAA0B,yBAAyB,SAAS;;;cCvI/D;UAEI;;EAEf;;EAEA;;UAGe,YAAY;;EAE3B;;;EAGA,WAAW;;EAEX;;EAEA,YAAY;;EAEZ;;;EAGA,cAAc,OAAO;;EAErB;;UAGe;;EAEf,OAAO;;EAEP,MAAM;;iBAGc,SAAS,QAC7B,OAAO,YAAY,SACnB,OAAO,SACN,QAAQ;;;iBAsIK,iBAAiB,eAAe;;iBAKhC,iBAAiB,eAAe;;;UCxK/B,oBAAoB,iBAAiB;EACpD,SAAS;EACT,SAAS;;;EAGT,QAAQ,eAAe;;EAEvB,QAAQ;;EAER,gBAAgB,eAAe;;;;EAI/B,mBAAmB;EACnB;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA,gBAAgB;;;;EAIhB,iBAAiB;;;EAGjB,gBAAgB;EAChB,SAAS;;;;;;;;;;;KAYC,cAAc,iBAAiB,qBACzC,MAAM,oBAAoB,cACvB,QAAQ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBA2BS,aAAa,iBAAiB,kBAClD,MAAM,oBAAoB,YACzB,QAAQ;;;UClFM,uBAAuB,iBAAiB;EACvD,YAAY;EACZ,SAAS;;UAGM,mBAAmB,iBAAiB;EACnD,UAAU;EACV,SAAS;;UAGM,gBAAgB,iBAAiB;;EAEhD,cAAc,YAAY,uBAAuB;;EAEjD,aAAa,YAAY,mBAAmB;;EAE5C,iBAAiB,YAAY,mBAAmB;;EAEhD;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA,cAAc;EACd;IACE,aAAa,MAAM;MAAe;MAAc;;IAChD;;EAEF;IACE,aAAa,MAAM;MAAe;MAAc;;IAChD;;;UAIa,0BAA0B,iBAAiB;;EAE1D,UAAU;IAAQ;IAAY,OAAO;;;EAErC,UAAU;;;EAGV,QAAQ,eAAe;;EAEvB,QAAQ,gBAAgB;;EAExB,QAAQ;;EAER,gBAAgB,eAAe;;EAE/B,mBAAmB;;EAEnB;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;EAIA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;EAIA,gBAAgB;;EAEhB,iBAAiB;;;EAGjB,gBAAgB;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;EAehB,UAAU,cAAc;;;;;UAMT;EACf;EACA;EACA;;UAoBe;EACf,cAAc;;EAEd,cAAc,cAAc;;EAE5B,iBAAiB,cAAc;;;;;;;iBAQjB,qBAAqB,OAAO;EAC1C;EACA;EACA;EACA;;UAuBe;EACf,QAAQ,aAAa;;iBAGD,mBAAmB,iBAAiB,kBACxD,MAAM,0BAA0B,YAC/B,QAAQ"}

package/dist/meta-eval/index.d.ts

@@ -1,13 +1,14 @@
-import { f as Run } from "../schema-Bjgdsn73.js";
-import { s as TraceStore } from "../store-B06JdC56.js";
+import { f as Run } from "../schema-DID1Cqct.js";
+import { s as TraceStore } from "../store-Cq9oOrI1.js";
 import { a as ContinuousCalibrationResult, n as CandidateScore, o as GoldenItem, r as ContinuousAgreement, t as CalibrationResult } from "../judge-calibration-C5CbMYce.js";
 import { n as SeriesConvergenceResult, o as CorpusAgreementReport, t as SeriesConvergenceOptions } from "../series-convergence-D9WgpXGi.js";
 import { a as OutcomeFilter, i as InMemoryOutcomeStore, n as FileSystemOutcomeStore, o as OutcomeStore, r as FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions, t as DeploymentOutcome } from "../outcome-store-BYHIuO0e.js";
-import { a as rubricPredictiveValidity, i as RubricRanking, n as RubricPredictiveValidityInput, r as RubricPredictiveValidityReport, t as RubricOutcomePair } from "../rubric-predictive-validity-CxycqzX5.js";
+import { a as rubricPredictiveValidity, i as RubricRanking, n as RubricPredictiveValidityInput, r as RubricPredictiveValidityReport, t as RubricOutcomePair } from "../rubric-predictive-validity-DluJLCKQ.js";
 //#region src/meta-eval/correlation-study.d.ts
 interface EvalMetricSpec {
   id: string;
-  /** Extract a scalar from a run (defaults cover score/pass/durationMs/costUsd/tokens). */
+  /** Extract a scalar from a run. Omit it and `id` must name one of
+   *  `RUN_METRICS`; any other `id` is refused. */
   extract?: (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null>;
 }
 interface OutcomePair {

package/dist/meta-eval/index.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"index.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../../src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts","../../src/meta-eval/calibration.ts","../../src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;;UAkBiB;EACf;;EAEA,WAAW,KAAK,KAAK,OAAO,eAAe;;UAG5B;EACf;EACA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;IAAe;IAAe;;;EAE9B;;UAGe;EACf,OAAO;EACP;EACA;;UAGe;;EAEf;;EAEA,gBAAgB;;EAEhB;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;iBAGoB,iBACpB,YAAY,YACZ,cAAc,cACd,aAAa,kBACb,8BACA,UAAS,0BACR,QAAQ;;;UCrDM;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA,MAAM;;EAEN;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf;;EAEA;;EAEA;IAAU;IAAY;;;UAGP;EACf;EACA;;iBAGoB,iBACpB,YAAY,YACZ,cAAc,cACd,YAAY,gBACZ,uBACA,UAAS,qBACR,QAAQ;;;cCDL;KAEM,6BAA6B;UAExB;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;EAEf;EACA;;EAEA;;;;;;;EAOA,SAAS;;;UAIM;EACf;EACA;EACA;;;iBAcc,yBAAyB,UAAU,kBAAkB;;;;;;iBAiCrD,wBACd,QAAQ,oBAAoB,6BAC5B,MAAM,eACL;;;;;;;;iBAmBa,sBACd,QAAQ,wBAAwB,qBAChC,MAAM,eACL;UAYc;;EAEf;;;;;;;;;iBAUc,wBACd,QAAQ,kBACR,QAAQ,cACR,MAAM,cACN,UAAS,qBACR;UA4Cc;EACf,OAAO,UAAU,mBAAmB;;EAEpC,QAAQ,mBAAmB,QAAQ;;iBAGrB,sBAAsB,UAAS,qBAA0B;;;;;;;iBAqBzD,kBAAkB,eAAe;UA0ChC;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;EAEf;EACA,aAAa;;EAEb,cAAc;;UAGC;EACf;EACA,QAAQ;;EAER,OAAO;;EAEP;;EAEA;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;;UAGe;EACf,UAAU;EACV;EACA;;;;;;;EAOA;;iBAKc,oBACd,SAAS,oBACT,MAAM,uBACL;UA6Gc;EACf;EACA;;;;;;;;;;iBAWc,gBAAgB,QAAQ,iBAAiB"}
+{"version":3,"file":"index.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../../src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts","../../src/meta-eval/calibration.ts","../../src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;;UAkBiB;EACf;;;EAGA,WAAW,KAAK,KAAK,OAAO,eAAe;;UAG5B;EACf;EACA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;IAAe;IAAe;;;EAE9B;;UAGe;EACf,OAAO;EACP;EACA;;UAGe;;EAEf;;EAEA,gBAAgB;;EAEhB;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;iBAGoB,iBACpB,YAAY,YACZ,cAAc,cACd,aAAa,kBACb,8BACA,UAAS,0BACR,QAAQ;;;UCtDM;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA,MAAM;;EAEN;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf;;EAEA;;EAEA;IAAU;IAAY;;;UAGP;EACf;EACA;;iBAGoB,iBACpB,YAAY,YACZ,cAAc,cACd,YAAY,gBACZ,uBACA,UAAS,qBACR,QAAQ;;;cCDL;KAEM,6BAA6B;UAExB;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;EAEf;EACA;;EAEA;;;;;;;EAOA,SAAS;;;UAIM;EACf;EACA;EACA;;;iBAcc,yBAAyB,UAAU,kBAAkB;;;;;;iBAiCrD,wBACd,QAAQ,oBAAoB,6BAC5B,MAAM,eACL;;;;;;;;iBAmBa,sBACd,QAAQ,wBAAwB,qBAChC,MAAM,eACL;UAYc;;EAEf;;;;;;;;;iBAUc,wBACd,QAAQ,kBACR,QAAQ,cACR,MAAM,cACN,UAAS,qBACR;UA4Cc;EACf,OAAO,UAAU,mBAAmB;;EAEpC,QAAQ,mBAAmB,QAAQ;;iBAGrB,sBAAsB,UAAS,qBAA0B;;;;;;;iBAqBzD,kBAAkB,eAAe;UA0ChC;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;EAEf;EACA,aAAa;;EAEb,cAAc;;UAGC;EACf;EACA,QAAQ;;EAER,OAAO;;EAEP;;EAEA;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;;UAGe;EACf,UAAU;EACV;EACA;;;;;;;EAOA;;iBAKc,oBACd,SAAS,oBACT,MAAM,uBACL;UA6Gc;EACf;EACA;;;;;;;;;;iBAWc,gBAAgB,QAAQ,iBAAiB"}

package/dist/meta-eval/index.js

@@ -1,11 +1,19 @@
 import { s as ValidationError } from "../errors-Dngq5h35.js";
-import { i as makeRng } from "../internal-BDHPCnjk.js";
-import { a as spearmanR, r as pearsonR } from "../descriptive-jDOuI6mz.js";
-import { o as llmSpans, t as aggregateLlm } from "../query-CHmMP42p.js";
+import { i as makeRng } from "../internal-BMFSR8Ns.js";
+import { a as spearmanR, r as pearsonR } from "../descriptive-1V17A-qa.js";
+import { u as runMetricExtractor } from "../query-BPGMVlbM.js";
 import { t as analyzeSeries } from "../series-convergence-CjO2QdRW.js";
-import { t as rubricPredictiveValidity } from "../rubric-predictive-validity-CK8SCOg-.js";
+import { t as rubricPredictiveValidity } from "../rubric-predictive-validity-2D5Gw9z9.js";
 import { n as InMemoryOutcomeStore, t as FileSystemOutcomeStore } from "../outcome-store-ChBKlTd_.js";
 //#region src/meta-eval/calibration.ts
+/**
+* Calibration curve — binned "if eval says X, what does reality show?"
+*
+* Companion to correlationStudy. Raw correlation is a single number;
+* the calibration curve shows *where* the eval is well-calibrated vs
+* overconfident / underconfident. Buckets the eval metric, computes
+* mean outcome per bucket, reports expected-calibration-error (ECE).
+*/
 async function calibrationCurve(traceStore, outcomeStore, evalMetric, outcomeMetric, options = {}) {
 	const runs = await traceStore.listRuns();
 	const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list();
@@ -15,7 +23,7 @@ async function calibrationCurve(traceStore, outcomeStore, evalMetric, outcomeMet
 		arr.push(o);
 		byRun.set(o.runId, arr);
 	}
-	const extract = evalMetric.extract ?? defaultExtract$1(evalMetric.id);
+	const extract = evalMetric.extract ?? runMetricExtractor(evalMetric.id);
 	const pairs = [];
 	for (const run of runs) {
 		const os = byRun.get(run.runId);
@@ -92,9 +100,6 @@ function toBin(chunk, lower, upper) {
 function mean(xs) {
 	return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length;
 }
-function defaultExtract$1(metric) {
-	return async (run) => run.outcome?.score ?? (metric === "pass" ? run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0 : null);
-}
 //#endregion
 //#region src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts
 /**
@@ -139,7 +144,7 @@ async function correlationStudy(traceStore, outcomeStore, evalMetrics, outcomeMe
 			continue;
 		}
 		for (const em of evalMetrics) {
-			const x = await (em.extract ?? defaultExtract(em.id))(run, traceStore);
+			const x = await (em.extract ?? runMetricExtractor(em.id))(run, traceStore);
 			if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue;
 			for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {
 				const values = eligible.map((o) => o.metrics[om]).filter((v) => typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v));
@@ -220,19 +225,6 @@ function bootstrapPearsonCi(xs, ys, iterations, seed) {
 		upper: rs[Math.min(rs.length - 1, Math.floor(.975 * rs.length))]
 	};
 }
-function defaultExtract(metric) {
-	return async (run, store) => {
-		switch (metric) {
-			case "score":
-			case "overallScore": return run.outcome?.score ?? null;
-			case "pass": return run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0;
-			case "durationMs": return run.endedAt && run.startedAt ? run.endedAt - run.startedAt : null;
-			case "costUsd": return aggregateLlm(await llmSpans(store, run.runId)).costUsd;
-			case "inputTokens": return aggregateLlm(await llmSpans(store, run.runId)).inputTokens;
-			default: return null;
-		}
-	};
-}
 //#endregion
 //#region src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts
 /**

package/dist/meta-eval/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"index.js","names":["defaultExtract"],"sources":["../../src/meta-eval/calibration.ts","../../src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts","../../src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Calibration curve — binned \"if eval says X, what does reality show?\"\n *\n * Companion to correlationStudy. Raw correlation is a single number;\n * the calibration curve shows *where* the eval is well-calibrated vs\n * overconfident / underconfident. Buckets the eval metric, computes\n * mean outcome per bucket, reports expected-calibration-error (ECE).\n */\n\nimport type { Run } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport type { EvalMetricSpec } from './correlation-study'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface CalibrationBin {\n  lower: number\n  upper: number\n  n: number\n  evalMean: number\n  outcomeMean: number\n  /** |outcomeMean − evalMean|; contributes to ECE weighted by n/total. */\n  gap: number\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationReport {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n  n: number\n  bins: CalibrationBin[]\n  /** Expected Calibration Error — Σ (n_i/N) × |outcomeMean_i − evalMean_i|. */\n  ece: number\n  /** Max bin gap — upper bound on miscalibration. */\n  maxGap: number\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationOptions {\n  bins?: number\n  /** Equal-width (fixed bin edges) or equal-frequency (quantile bins). */\n  binning?: 'equal-width' | 'equal-frequency'\n  /** Clip eval values to [lo, hi] before binning. */\n  range?: { lo: number; hi: number }\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationPair {\n  evalScore: number\n  outcome: number\n}\n\nexport async function calibrationCurve(\n  traceStore: TraceStore,\n  outcomeStore: OutcomeStore,\n  evalMetric: EvalMetricSpec,\n  outcomeMetric: string,\n  options: CalibrationOptions = {},\n): Promise<CalibrationReport | null> {\n  const runs = await traceStore.listRuns()\n  const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list()\n  const byRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = byRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    byRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const extract = evalMetric.extract ?? defaultExtract(evalMetric.id)\n  const pairs: Array<{ x: number; y: number }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const os = byRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os?.length) continue\n    const x = await extract(run, traceStore)\n    if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    const latest = [...os].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0]!\n    const y = latest.metrics[outcomeMetric]\n    if (typeof y !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    pairs.push({ x, y })\n  }\n  if (pairs.length < 2) return null\n\n  return calibrationFromPairs(\n    pairs.map((p) => ({ evalScore: p.x, outcome: p.y })),\n    evalMetric.id,\n    outcomeMetric,\n    options,\n  )\n}\n\nfunction calibrationFromPairs(\n  inputPairs: CalibrationPair[],\n  evalMetric: string,\n  outcomeMetric: string,\n  options: CalibrationOptions = {},\n): CalibrationReport | null {\n  const pairs = inputPairs.filter(\n    (pair) => Number.isFinite(pair.evalScore) && Number.isFinite(pair.outcome),\n  )\n  if (pairs.length < 2) return null\n\n  const numBins = options.bins ?? 10\n  const binning = options.binning ?? 'equal-width'\n  const xs = pairs.map((p) => p.evalScore)\n  const lo = options.range?.lo ?? Math.min(...xs)\n  const hi = options.range?.hi ?? Math.max(...xs)\n\n  const bins: CalibrationBin[] = []\n  if (binning === 'equal-frequency') {\n    const sorted = [...pairs].sort((a, b) => a.evalScore - b.evalScore)\n    const perBin = Math.max(1, Math.floor(sorted.length / numBins))\n    for (let i = 0; i < sorted.length; i += perBin) {\n      const chunk = sorted.slice(i, i + perBin)\n      if (chunk.length === 0) continue\n      bins.push(toBin(chunk))\n    }\n  } else {\n    const width = (hi - lo) / numBins\n    if (width === 0) return null\n    for (let i = 0; i < numBins; i++) {\n      const binLo = lo + i * width\n      const binHi = i === numBins - 1 ? hi + 1e-9 : lo + (i + 1) * width\n      const chunk = pairs.filter((p) => p.evalScore >= binLo && p.evalScore < binHi)\n      if (chunk.length === 0) continue\n      bins.push(toBin(chunk, binLo, binHi))\n    }\n  }\n\n  const total = bins.reduce((a, b) => a + b.n, 0)\n  const ece = bins.reduce((a, b) => a + (b.n / total) * b.gap, 0)\n  const maxGap = bins.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b.gap), 0)\n\n  return { evalMetric, outcomeMetric, n: pairs.length, bins, ece, maxGap }\n}\n\nfunction toBin(chunk: CalibrationPair[], lower?: number, upper?: number): CalibrationBin {\n  const xs = chunk.map((c) => c.evalScore)\n  const ys = chunk.map((c) => c.outcome)\n  const evalMean = mean(xs)\n  const outcomeMean = mean(ys)\n  return {\n    lower: lower ?? Math.min(...xs),\n    upper: upper ?? Math.max(...xs),\n    n: chunk.length,\n    evalMean,\n    outcomeMean,\n    gap: Math.abs(outcomeMean - evalMean),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction defaultExtract(metric: string): (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null> {\n  return async (run) =>\n    run.outcome?.score ?? (metric === 'pass' ? (run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0) : null)\n}\n","/**\n * Correlation study — \"does our eval score predict real-world outcomes?\"\n *\n * This is the load-bearing signal. Takes a TraceStore + OutcomeStore,\n * joins on runId, computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for every\n * (evalMetric, outcomeMetric) pair the caller declares.\n *\n * Without this number the framework is ornamental. With it and r > 0.6\n * the framework is a moat — no other agent-eval tool publishes one.\n */\n\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport { makeRng } from '../statistics/internal'\nimport { aggregateLlm, llmSpans } from '../trace/query'\nimport type { Run } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeFilter, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface EvalMetricSpec {\n  id: string\n  /** Extract a scalar from a run (defaults cover score/pass/durationMs/costUsd/tokens). */\n  extract?: (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null>\n}\n\nexport interface OutcomePair {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationResult {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n  n: number\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  /** 95% bootstrap CI for Pearson. */\n  pearsonCi95: { lower: number; upper: number }\n  /** Rough verdict: 'strong' ≥ 0.7, 'moderate' ≥ 0.4, else 'weak'. */\n  verdict: 'strong' | 'moderate' | 'weak'\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationStudyResult {\n  pairs: CorrelationResult[]\n  joinedSamples: number\n  skippedRuns: number\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationStudyOptions {\n  /** Only join outcomes captured within this window after run.startedAt. */\n  maxCaptureLagMs?: number\n  /** Restrict to a subset of outcomes (cohort, region, source). */\n  outcomeFilter?: OutcomeFilter\n  /** Which outcome per run to use when multiple exist. Default 'latest'. */\n  reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n  /** Bootstrap iterations for the CI. Default 500. */\n  bootstrapIterations?: number\n  /** Seed for the bootstrap resampler. Absent, the seed is derived from the\n   *  paired observations, so the same study reproduces the same interval. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\nexport async function correlationStudy(\n  traceStore: TraceStore,\n  outcomeStore: OutcomeStore,\n  evalMetrics: EvalMetricSpec[],\n  outcomeMetricNames: string[],\n  options: CorrelationStudyOptions = {},\n): Promise<CorrelationStudyResult> {\n  const runs = await traceStore.listRuns()\n  const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list(options.outcomeFilter)\n  const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const reduction = options.reduction ?? 'latest'\n  const maxLag = options.maxCaptureLagMs ?? Infinity\n\n  const pairs: Array<{ evalMetric: string; outcomeMetric: string; xs: number[]; ys: number[] }> = []\n  for (const em of evalMetrics) {\n    for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {\n      pairs.push({ evalMetric: em.id, outcomeMetric: om, xs: [], ys: [] })\n    }\n  }\n\n  let joined = 0\n  let skipped = 0\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os || os.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n    const eligible = os.filter((o) => o.capturedAt - run.startedAt <= maxLag)\n    if (eligible.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n\n    for (const em of evalMetrics) {\n      const extract = em.extract ?? defaultExtract(em.id)\n      const x = await extract(run, traceStore)\n      if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n\n      for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {\n        const values = eligible\n          .map((o) => o.metrics[om])\n          .filter((v): v is number => typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v))\n        if (values.length === 0) continue\n        const y = reduce(values, reduction, eligible)\n        if (y === null) continue\n        const pair = pairs.find((p) => p.evalMetric === em.id && p.outcomeMetric === om)!\n        pair.xs.push(x)\n        pair.ys.push(y)\n      }\n    }\n    joined++\n  }\n\n  const results: CorrelationResult[] = pairs\n    .filter((p) => p.xs.length >= 3)\n    .map((p) => {\n      const pearson = pearsonR(p.xs, p.ys)\n      const spearman = spearmanR(p.xs, p.ys)\n      const pearsonCi95 = bootstrapPearsonCi(\n        p.xs,\n        p.ys,\n        options.bootstrapIterations ?? 500,\n        options.seed,\n      )\n      const verdict: CorrelationResult['verdict'] =\n        Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.7 ? 'strong' : Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.4 ? 'moderate' : 'weak'\n      return {\n        evalMetric: p.evalMetric,\n        outcomeMetric: p.outcomeMetric,\n        n: p.xs.length,\n        pearson,\n        spearman,\n        pearsonCi95,\n        verdict,\n      }\n    })\n\n  return { pairs: results, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction reduce(\n  values: number[],\n  kind: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max',\n  outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[],\n): number | null {\n  if (values.length === 0) return null\n  if (kind === 'mean') return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length\n  if (kind === 'max') return Math.max(...values)\n  // 'latest': pick the outcome captured last, then lookup its metric\n  const latest = [...outcomes].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0]\n  if (!latest) return null\n  const latestKey = Object.keys(latest.metrics)[0]\n  const v = latestKey !== undefined ? latest.metrics[latestKey] : undefined\n  // For 'latest' we already have `values` aligned; use the last-captured one\n  const paired = outcomes\n    .map((o) => {\n      const k = Object.keys(o.metrics)[0]\n      return {\n        at: o.capturedAt,\n        v: k !== undefined ? values.find((x) => o.metrics[k] === x) : undefined,\n      }\n    })\n    .filter((p) => p.v !== undefined)\n  if (paired.length === 0) return v ?? null\n  return paired.sort((a, b) => b.at - a.at)[0]?.v ?? null\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapPearsonCi(\n  xs: number[],\n  ys: number[],\n  iterations: number,\n  seed: number | undefined,\n): { lower: number; upper: number } {\n  const n = xs.length\n  if (n < 3) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN }\n  const rng = makeRng(seed, xs, ys)\n  const rs: number[] = []\n  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n    const rx: number[] = new Array(n)\n    const ry: number[] = new Array(n)\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n      const idx = Math.floor(rng() * n)\n      rx[i] = xs[idx]!\n      ry[i] = ys[idx]!\n    }\n    const r = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n    if (Number.isFinite(r)) rs.push(r)\n  }\n  rs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  if (rs.length === 0) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN }\n  return {\n    lower: rs[Math.floor(0.025 * rs.length)]!,\n    upper: rs[Math.min(rs.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * rs.length))]!,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction defaultExtract(metric: string): (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null> {\n  return async (run, store) => {\n    switch (metric) {\n      case 'score':\n      case 'overallScore':\n        return run.outcome?.score ?? null\n      case 'pass':\n        return run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0\n      case 'durationMs':\n        return run.endedAt && run.startedAt ? run.endedAt - run.startedAt : null\n      case 'costUsd': {\n        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId)\n        return aggregateLlm(llm).costUsd\n      }\n      case 'inputTokens': {\n        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId)\n        return aggregateLlm(llm).inputTokens\n      }\n      default:\n        return null\n    }\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Judge sentinel — eval trustworthiness as a continuously measured,\n * alarmed trend.\n *\n * Judges are models; models change underneath us; calibration decays.\n * This module composes three existing instruments into one loop:\n *\n *   snapshot — adapters turn real instrument outputs (`calibrateJudge` /\n *              `calibrateJudgeContinuous`, `corpusInterRaterAgreement` /\n *              `continuousAgreement`, a rerun sentinel golden set) into\n *              `SentinelSnapshot`s\n *   series   — `analyzeSeries` (src/series-convergence) classifies each\n *              judge×metric history as stabilized / drifting / noisy\n *   alarm    — `judgeSentinelReport` turns trends + thresholds into named\n *              alarms; `evalHealthStamp` is the tiny object a campaign\n *              attaches to its verdicts\n *\n * Alarm conditions:\n *   - convergence state `drifting-down` on any tracked metric\n *   - irr below `minIrr`\n *   - calibrationKappa / sentinelPassRate dropped vs the series baseline\n *     beyond `maxKappaDrop` / `maxSentinelDrop`\n *   - judge model changed with no post-change golden-grounded snapshot\n *     (the silent-upgrade trap: judges agreeing with each other after a\n *     model swap proves nothing — only re-measuring against gold does)\n *   - newest snapshot older than `staleAfterDays` relative to `asOf`\n *\n * Wire-in: run the snapshot adapters from a post-campaign hook or a\n * nightly job, append to a `SentinelStore`, then compute\n * `judgeSentinelReport(await store.history(), { asOf })` with `asOf` =\n * the campaign timestamp. Attach `evalHealthStamp(report)` to campaign\n * verdicts: an alarmed sentinel means every downstream verdict carries\n * an integrity warning until the judge is recalibrated.\n *\n * The module is clock-free — every timestamp (`at`, `asOf`) is\n * caller-supplied ISO-8601, so reports are reproducible.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport type {\n  CalibrationResult,\n  CandidateScore,\n  ContinuousAgreement,\n  ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  GoldenItem,\n} from '../judge-calibration'\nimport {\n  analyzeSeries,\n  type SeriesConvergenceOptions,\n  type SeriesConvergenceResult,\n} from '../series-convergence'\nimport type { CorpusAgreementReport } from '../statistics'\n\nconst SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES = ['irr', 'calibrationKappa', 'sentinelPassRate'] as const\n\nexport type SentinelMetricName = (typeof SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES)[number]\n\nexport interface SentinelMetrics {\n  /** Inter-rater reliability — ICC(2,1) from agreement instruments. */\n  irr?: number\n  /** Weighted κ vs the human golden set (`calibrateJudge*`). */\n  calibrationKappa?: number\n  /** Fraction of a fixed sentinel golden set the judge still scores within tolerance. */\n  sentinelPassRate?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSnapshot {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO-8601 timestamp — the module never reads a clock. */\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  /** Exact model identity behind the judge (pin the full version string). */\n  judgeModel: string\n  /**\n   * Metrics measured at `at`. May be empty: an empty-metrics snapshot is a\n   * model-change marker — it records the new `judgeModel` immediately and\n   * the silent-upgrade alarm stays raised until a golden-grounded snapshot\n   * (calibrationKappa or sentinelPassRate) follows.\n   */\n  metrics: SentinelMetrics\n}\n\n/** Identity + timestamp the caller supplies alongside an instrument output. */\nexport interface SnapshotMeta {\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  judgeModel: string\n}\n\nfunction parseIso(value: string, label: string): number {\n  const ms = typeof value === 'string' ? Date.parse(value) : NaN\n  if (!Number.isFinite(ms)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `judge-sentinel: ${label} is not a parseable ISO timestamp: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return ms\n}\n\n/** Shape guard for snapshots crossing a boundary (store append, JSONL load, report input). */\nexport function validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot, source = 'snapshot'): void {\n  parseIso(snapshot.at, `${source}.at`)\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeId !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeId.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeId must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeModel !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeModel.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeModel must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (snapshot.metrics === null || typeof snapshot.metrics !== 'object') {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics must be an object (may be empty)`)\n  }\n  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(snapshot.metrics)) {\n    if (!(SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES as readonly string[]).includes(key)) {\n      // A typo'd key would silently never trend — reject instead.\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics carries unknown key \"${key}\" — known: ${SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.join(', ')}`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (value !== undefined && !Number.isFinite(value)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics.${key} is not a finite number: ${String(value)}`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Snapshot adapters — real instrument output → SentinelSnapshot ───\n\n/**\n * From `calibrateJudge` / `calibrateJudgeContinuous` output. Prefers the\n * un-rounded continuous κ_w when the report carries one (integer κ\n * discards information for [0,1] judges).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromCalibration(\n  report: CalibrationResult | ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const kappa = 'weightedKappaContinuous' in report ? report.weightedKappaContinuous : report.kappa\n  if (!Number.isFinite(kappa)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromCalibration: κ is not finite (n=${report.n}) — calibrate against ≥2 joined golden items before snapshotting`,\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { calibrationKappa: kappa } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n/**\n * From `corpusInterRaterAgreement` (statistics.ts) or `continuousAgreement`\n * (judge-calibration.ts) output. IRR = ICC(2,1) — the reliability\n * coefficient both instruments compute. For ensemble-level agreement,\n * `meta.judgeId` names the ensemble and `meta.judgeModel` pins its\n * composition (e.g. a joined list of member model strings).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromAgreement(\n  report: CorpusAgreementReport | ContinuousAgreement,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const irr = 'overallIcc' in report ? report.overallIcc : report.icc\n  if (!Number.isFinite(irr)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromAgreement: ICC is not finite — agreement needs ≥2 raters and ≥2 complete items',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { irr } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSetOptions {\n  /** Max |judge − human| for an item to count as passed. Default 0.1 (tuned for [0,1] scores). */\n  tolerance?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * From a rerun of a fixed sentinel golden set: the same `GoldenItem`s the\n * judge was originally calibrated on, re-scored periodically. Pass rate =\n * fraction of joined items where the judge stays within `tolerance` of the\n * human score. Items the judge didn't score are excluded from the\n * denominator; zero joined items is an error, not a 0% pass rate.\n */\nexport function snapshotFromSentinelSet(\n  scores: CandidateScore[],\n  golden: GoldenItem[],\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n  options: SentinelSetOptions = {},\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const tolerance = options.tolerance ?? 0.1\n  if (!Number.isFinite(tolerance) || tolerance < 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromSentinelSet: tolerance must be a finite number ≥ 0, got ${tolerance}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const goldenById = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const item of golden) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(item.humanScore)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: golden item \"${item.itemId}\" has a non-finite humanScore`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (goldenById.has(item.itemId)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: duplicate golden itemId \"${item.itemId}\"`)\n    }\n    goldenById.set(item.itemId, item.humanScore)\n  }\n  let joined = 0\n  let passed = 0\n  for (const s of scores) {\n    const human = goldenById.get(s.itemId)\n    if (human === undefined) continue\n    if (!Number.isFinite(s.score)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: judge score for item \"${s.itemId}\" is not finite`,\n      )\n    }\n    joined++\n    if (Math.abs(s.score - human) <= tolerance) passed++\n  }\n  if (joined === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromSentinelSet: no judge scores joined the golden set — itemIds mismatch or empty sentinel run',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { sentinelPassRate: passed / joined } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n// ── Persistence ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelStore {\n  append(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot): Promise<void>\n  /** All snapshots (optionally for one judge), in append order. */\n  history(judgeId?: string): Promise<SentinelSnapshot[]>\n}\n\nexport function inMemorySentinelStore(initial: SentinelSnapshot[] = []): SentinelStore {\n  for (const s of initial) validateSentinelSnapshot(s)\n  const items = initial.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }))\n  return {\n    async append(snapshot) {\n      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n      items.push({ ...snapshot, metrics: { ...snapshot.metrics } })\n    },\n    async history(judgeId) {\n      const all = items.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }))\n      return judgeId === undefined ? all : all.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId)\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * JSONL store — one snapshot per line, appended atomically per call.\n * A corrupt or shape-invalid line is a loud error naming the file and\n * line number: a sentinel history that silently drops records would\n * defeat the drift detection it exists to provide.\n */\nexport function fileSentinelStore(path: string): SentinelStore {\n  return {\n    async append(snapshot) {\n      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      const pathMod = await import('node:path')\n      await fs.mkdir(pathMod.dirname(path), { recursive: true })\n      await fs.appendFile(path, `${JSON.stringify(snapshot)}\\n`, 'utf8')\n    },\n    async history(judgeId) {\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      let raw: string\n      try {\n        raw = await fs.readFile(path, 'utf8')\n      } catch (err) {\n        if ((err as NodeJS.ErrnoException).code === 'ENOENT') return []\n        throw err\n      }\n      const lines = raw.split('\\n')\n      const snapshots: SentinelSnapshot[] = []\n      for (let i = 0; i < lines.length; i++) {\n        const line = lines[i]!\n        if (line.trim().length === 0) continue\n        let parsed: unknown\n        try {\n          parsed = JSON.parse(line)\n        } catch (err) {\n          throw new ValidationError(\n            `judge-sentinel: store at ${path} has a corrupt JSONL line ${i + 1}: ${(err as Error).message}`,\n          )\n        }\n        const snapshot = parsed as SentinelSnapshot\n        validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot, `${path}:${i + 1}`)\n        snapshots.push(snapshot)\n      }\n      return judgeId === undefined ? snapshots : snapshots.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId)\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Trend report ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelThresholds {\n  /** Floor for irr — below it the judge ensemble is unreliable regardless of trend. Default 0.6. */\n  minIrr?: number\n  /** Max tolerated calibrationKappa drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.15. */\n  maxKappaDrop?: number\n  /** Max tolerated sentinelPassRate drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.1. */\n  maxSentinelDrop?: number\n  /** Newest snapshot older than this (days, vs asOf) = the sentinel itself went blind. Default 30. */\n  staleAfterDays?: number\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeSentinelOptions {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO timestamp staleness is measured against. */\n  asOf: string\n  thresholds?: SentinelThresholds\n  /** Forwarded to `analyzeSeries` (window, stableCv, driftRun). */\n  convergence?: SeriesConvergenceOptions\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelTrend {\n  judgeId: string\n  metric: SentinelMetricName\n  /** Verbatim `analyzeSeries` state for this judge×metric history. */\n  state: SeriesConvergenceResult['state']\n  /** Newest value in the series. */\n  current: number\n  /** Oldest value in the series — the reference the drop thresholds compare against. */\n  baseline: number\n  /** current − baseline (signed; negative = decayed). */\n  drift: number\n  alarmed: boolean\n  reason?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelReport {\n  perJudge: SentinelTrend[]\n  alarms: string[]\n  healthy: boolean\n  /**\n   * `judgeId:metric` pairs with too few snapshots for the convergence\n   * machine. Named, not counted — a blind spot you can't see is a blind\n   * spot you won't fix. Floor/drop checks still apply to thin series, so\n   * insufficient history alone never masks an alarm.\n   */\n  insufficientHistory: string[]\n}\n\nconst MS_PER_DAY = 86_400_000\n\nexport function judgeSentinelReport(\n  history: SentinelSnapshot[],\n  opts: JudgeSentinelOptions,\n): SentinelReport {\n  const asOfMs = parseIso(opts.asOf, 'asOf')\n  const minIrr = opts.thresholds?.minIrr ?? 0.6\n  const maxKappaDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxKappaDrop ?? 0.15\n  const maxSentinelDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxSentinelDrop ?? 0.1\n  const staleAfterDays = opts.thresholds?.staleAfterDays ?? 30\n\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, Array<SentinelSnapshot & { atMs: number }>>()\n  for (const snapshot of history) {\n    validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n    const atMs = parseIso(snapshot.at, `snapshot.at (judge \"${snapshot.judgeId}\")`)\n    const arr = byJudge.get(snapshot.judgeId) ?? []\n    arr.push({ ...snapshot, atMs })\n    byJudge.set(snapshot.judgeId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const perJudge: SentinelTrend[] = []\n  const alarms: string[] = []\n  const insufficientHistory: string[] = []\n\n  for (const judgeId of [...byJudge.keys()].sort()) {\n    const snaps = byJudge.get(judgeId)!.sort((a, b) => a.atMs - b.atMs)\n    const newest = snaps[snaps.length - 1]!\n\n    const ageDays = (asOfMs - newest.atMs) / MS_PER_DAY\n    if (ageDays > staleAfterDays) {\n      alarms.push(\n        `judge \"${judgeId}\": stale — newest snapshot ${newest.at} is ${ageDays.toFixed(1)}d old vs asOf (limit ${staleAfterDays}d)`,\n      )\n    }\n\n    // Silent-upgrade trap: only the latest model change matters for current\n    // trust, and only golden-grounded metrics clear it — irr alone proves\n    // judges still agree with each other, not that they're still right.\n    let changeIdx = -1\n    for (let i = 1; i < snaps.length; i++) {\n      if (snaps[i]!.judgeModel !== snaps[i - 1]!.judgeModel) changeIdx = i\n    }\n    if (changeIdx >= 0) {\n      const recalibrated = snaps\n        .slice(changeIdx)\n        .some(\n          (s) =>\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.calibrationKappa) ||\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.sentinelPassRate),\n        )\n      if (!recalibrated) {\n        alarms.push(\n          `judge \"${judgeId}\": model changed \"${snaps[changeIdx - 1]!.judgeModel}\" → \"${snaps[changeIdx]!.judgeModel}\" at ${snaps[changeIdx]!.at} with no post-change calibration snapshot — silent-upgrade trap; rerun calibrateJudge or the sentinel set against the new model`,\n        )\n      }\n    }\n\n    for (const metric of SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES) {\n      const values = snaps\n        .filter((s) => typeof s.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n        .map((s) => s.metrics[metric]!)\n      if (values.length === 0) continue\n\n      const convergence = analyzeSeries(values, opts.convergence)\n      if (convergence.state === 'insufficient-data')\n        insufficientHistory.push(`${judgeId}:${metric}`)\n\n      const current = values[values.length - 1]!\n      const baseline = values[0]!\n      const drift = current - baseline\n      const reasons: string[] = []\n      if (convergence.state === 'drifting-down') {\n        reasons.push(\n          `convergence state drifting-down (tail run ${convergence.tailRun}, window mean ${convergence.windowMean.toFixed(3)})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'irr' && current < minIrr) {\n        reasons.push(`irr ${current.toFixed(3)} below floor ${minIrr}`)\n      }\n      if (metric === 'calibrationKappa' && baseline - current > maxKappaDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `calibrationKappa dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxKappaDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'sentinelPassRate' && baseline - current > maxSentinelDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `sentinelPassRate dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxSentinelDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n\n      const alarmed = reasons.length > 0\n      const trend: SentinelTrend = {\n        judgeId,\n        metric,\n        state: convergence.state,\n        current,\n        baseline,\n        drift,\n        alarmed,\n      }\n      if (alarmed) {\n        trend.reason = reasons.join('; ')\n        alarms.push(`judge \"${judgeId}\" ${metric}: ${trend.reason}`)\n      }\n      perJudge.push(trend)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { perJudge, alarms, healthy: alarms.length === 0, insufficientHistory }\n}\n\n// ── Verdict stamp ────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface EvalHealthStamp {\n  healthy: boolean\n  alarms: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * The object a campaign attaches to its verdicts. Compute it from the\n * sentinel report in a post-campaign hook (or a nightly job feeding the\n * next day's campaigns) and store it alongside the verdict payload.\n * `healthy: false` means the judges that produced those verdicts have an\n * unresolved drift / decay / silent-upgrade / staleness alarm — treat the\n * verdicts as carrying an integrity warning until recalibration clears it.\n */\nexport function evalHealthStamp(report: SentinelReport): EvalHealthStamp {\n  return { healthy: report.healthy, alarms: [...report.alarms] 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+{"version":3,"file":"index.js","names":[],"sources":["../../src/meta-eval/calibration.ts","../../src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts","../../src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Calibration curve — binned \"if eval says X, what does reality show?\"\n *\n * Companion to correlationStudy. Raw correlation is a single number;\n * the calibration curve shows *where* the eval is well-calibrated vs\n * overconfident / underconfident. Buckets the eval metric, computes\n * mean outcome per bucket, reports expected-calibration-error (ECE).\n */\n\nimport { runMetricExtractor } from '../trace/query'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport type { EvalMetricSpec } from './correlation-study'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface CalibrationBin {\n  lower: number\n  upper: number\n  n: number\n  evalMean: number\n  outcomeMean: number\n  /** |outcomeMean − evalMean|; contributes to ECE weighted by n/total. */\n  gap: number\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationReport {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n  n: number\n  bins: CalibrationBin[]\n  /** Expected Calibration Error — Σ (n_i/N) × |outcomeMean_i − evalMean_i|. */\n  ece: number\n  /** Max bin gap — upper bound on miscalibration. */\n  maxGap: number\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationOptions {\n  bins?: number\n  /** Equal-width (fixed bin edges) or equal-frequency (quantile bins). */\n  binning?: 'equal-width' | 'equal-frequency'\n  /** Clip eval values to [lo, hi] before binning. */\n  range?: { lo: number; hi: number }\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationPair {\n  evalScore: number\n  outcome: number\n}\n\nexport async function calibrationCurve(\n  traceStore: TraceStore,\n  outcomeStore: OutcomeStore,\n  evalMetric: EvalMetricSpec,\n  outcomeMetric: string,\n  options: CalibrationOptions = {},\n): Promise<CalibrationReport | null> {\n  const runs = await traceStore.listRuns()\n  const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list()\n  const byRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = byRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    byRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const extract = evalMetric.extract ?? runMetricExtractor(evalMetric.id)\n  const pairs: Array<{ x: number; y: number }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const os = byRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os?.length) continue\n    const x = await extract(run, traceStore)\n    if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    const latest = [...os].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0]!\n    const y = latest.metrics[outcomeMetric]\n    if (typeof y !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    pairs.push({ x, y })\n  }\n  if (pairs.length < 2) return null\n\n  return calibrationFromPairs(\n    pairs.map((p) => ({ evalScore: p.x, outcome: p.y })),\n    evalMetric.id,\n    outcomeMetric,\n    options,\n  )\n}\n\nfunction calibrationFromPairs(\n  inputPairs: CalibrationPair[],\n  evalMetric: string,\n  outcomeMetric: string,\n  options: CalibrationOptions = {},\n): CalibrationReport | null {\n  const pairs = inputPairs.filter(\n    (pair) => Number.isFinite(pair.evalScore) && Number.isFinite(pair.outcome),\n  )\n  if (pairs.length < 2) return null\n\n  const numBins = options.bins ?? 10\n  const binning = options.binning ?? 'equal-width'\n  const xs = pairs.map((p) => p.evalScore)\n  const lo = options.range?.lo ?? Math.min(...xs)\n  const hi = options.range?.hi ?? Math.max(...xs)\n\n  const bins: CalibrationBin[] = []\n  if (binning === 'equal-frequency') {\n    const sorted = [...pairs].sort((a, b) => a.evalScore - b.evalScore)\n    const perBin = Math.max(1, Math.floor(sorted.length / numBins))\n    for (let i = 0; i < sorted.length; i += perBin) {\n      const chunk = sorted.slice(i, i + perBin)\n      if (chunk.length === 0) continue\n      bins.push(toBin(chunk))\n    }\n  } else {\n    const width = (hi - lo) / numBins\n    if (width === 0) return null\n    for (let i = 0; i < numBins; i++) {\n      const binLo = lo + i * width\n      const binHi = i === numBins - 1 ? hi + 1e-9 : lo + (i + 1) * width\n      const chunk = pairs.filter((p) => p.evalScore >= binLo && p.evalScore < binHi)\n      if (chunk.length === 0) continue\n      bins.push(toBin(chunk, binLo, binHi))\n    }\n  }\n\n  const total = bins.reduce((a, b) => a + b.n, 0)\n  const ece = bins.reduce((a, b) => a + (b.n / total) * b.gap, 0)\n  const maxGap = bins.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b.gap), 0)\n\n  return { evalMetric, outcomeMetric, n: pairs.length, bins, ece, maxGap }\n}\n\nfunction toBin(chunk: CalibrationPair[], lower?: number, upper?: number): CalibrationBin {\n  const xs = chunk.map((c) => c.evalScore)\n  const ys = chunk.map((c) => c.outcome)\n  const evalMean = mean(xs)\n  const outcomeMean = mean(ys)\n  return {\n    lower: lower ?? Math.min(...xs),\n    upper: upper ?? Math.max(...xs),\n    n: chunk.length,\n    evalMean,\n    outcomeMean,\n    gap: Math.abs(outcomeMean - evalMean),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length\n}\n","/**\n * Correlation study — \"does our eval score predict real-world outcomes?\"\n *\n * This is the load-bearing signal. Takes a TraceStore + OutcomeStore,\n * joins on runId, computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for every\n * (evalMetric, outcomeMetric) pair the caller declares.\n *\n * Without this number the framework is ornamental. With it and r > 0.6\n * the framework is a moat — no other agent-eval tool publishes one.\n */\n\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport { makeRng } from '../statistics/internal'\nimport { runMetricExtractor } from '../trace/query'\nimport type { Run } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeFilter, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface EvalMetricSpec {\n  id: string\n  /** Extract a scalar from a run. Omit it and `id` must name one of\n   *  `RUN_METRICS`; any other `id` is refused. */\n  extract?: (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null>\n}\n\nexport interface OutcomePair {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationResult {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n  n: number\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  /** 95% bootstrap CI for Pearson. */\n  pearsonCi95: { lower: number; upper: number }\n  /** Rough verdict: 'strong' ≥ 0.7, 'moderate' ≥ 0.4, else 'weak'. */\n  verdict: 'strong' | 'moderate' | 'weak'\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationStudyResult {\n  pairs: CorrelationResult[]\n  joinedSamples: number\n  skippedRuns: number\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationStudyOptions {\n  /** Only join outcomes captured within this window after run.startedAt. */\n  maxCaptureLagMs?: number\n  /** Restrict to a subset of outcomes (cohort, region, source). */\n  outcomeFilter?: OutcomeFilter\n  /** Which outcome per run to use when multiple exist. Default 'latest'. */\n  reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n  /** Bootstrap iterations for the CI. Default 500. */\n  bootstrapIterations?: number\n  /** Seed for the bootstrap resampler. Absent, the seed is derived from the\n   *  paired observations, so the same study reproduces the same interval. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\nexport async function correlationStudy(\n  traceStore: TraceStore,\n  outcomeStore: OutcomeStore,\n  evalMetrics: EvalMetricSpec[],\n  outcomeMetricNames: string[],\n  options: CorrelationStudyOptions = {},\n): Promise<CorrelationStudyResult> {\n  const runs = await traceStore.listRuns()\n  const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list(options.outcomeFilter)\n  const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const reduction = options.reduction ?? 'latest'\n  const maxLag = options.maxCaptureLagMs ?? Infinity\n\n  const pairs: Array<{ evalMetric: string; outcomeMetric: string; xs: number[]; ys: number[] }> = []\n  for (const em of evalMetrics) {\n    for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {\n      pairs.push({ evalMetric: em.id, outcomeMetric: om, xs: [], ys: [] })\n    }\n  }\n\n  let joined = 0\n  let skipped = 0\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os || os.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n    const eligible = os.filter((o) => o.capturedAt - run.startedAt <= maxLag)\n    if (eligible.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n\n    for (const em of evalMetrics) {\n      const extract = em.extract ?? runMetricExtractor(em.id)\n      const x = await extract(run, traceStore)\n      if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n\n      for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {\n        const values = eligible\n          .map((o) => o.metrics[om])\n          .filter((v): v is number => typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v))\n        if (values.length === 0) continue\n        const y = reduce(values, reduction, eligible)\n        if (y === null) continue\n        const pair = pairs.find((p) => p.evalMetric === em.id && p.outcomeMetric === om)!\n        pair.xs.push(x)\n        pair.ys.push(y)\n      }\n    }\n    joined++\n  }\n\n  const results: CorrelationResult[] = pairs\n    .filter((p) => p.xs.length >= 3)\n    .map((p) => {\n      const pearson = pearsonR(p.xs, p.ys)\n      const spearman = spearmanR(p.xs, p.ys)\n      const pearsonCi95 = bootstrapPearsonCi(\n        p.xs,\n        p.ys,\n        options.bootstrapIterations ?? 500,\n        options.seed,\n      )\n      const verdict: CorrelationResult['verdict'] =\n        Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.7 ? 'strong' : Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.4 ? 'moderate' : 'weak'\n      return {\n        evalMetric: p.evalMetric,\n        outcomeMetric: p.outcomeMetric,\n        n: p.xs.length,\n        pearson,\n        spearman,\n        pearsonCi95,\n        verdict,\n      }\n    })\n\n  return { pairs: results, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction reduce(\n  values: number[],\n  kind: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max',\n  outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[],\n): number | null {\n  if (values.length === 0) return null\n  if (kind === 'mean') return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length\n  if (kind === 'max') return Math.max(...values)\n  // 'latest': pick the outcome captured last, then lookup its metric\n  const latest = [...outcomes].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0]\n  if (!latest) return null\n  const latestKey = Object.keys(latest.metrics)[0]\n  const v = latestKey !== undefined ? latest.metrics[latestKey] : undefined\n  // For 'latest' we already have `values` aligned; use the last-captured one\n  const paired = outcomes\n    .map((o) => {\n      const k = Object.keys(o.metrics)[0]\n      return {\n        at: o.capturedAt,\n        v: k !== undefined ? values.find((x) => o.metrics[k] === x) : undefined,\n      }\n    })\n    .filter((p) => p.v !== undefined)\n  if (paired.length === 0) return v ?? null\n  return paired.sort((a, b) => b.at - a.at)[0]?.v ?? null\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapPearsonCi(\n  xs: number[],\n  ys: number[],\n  iterations: number,\n  seed: number | undefined,\n): { lower: number; upper: number } {\n  const n = xs.length\n  if (n < 3) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN }\n  const rng = makeRng(seed, xs, ys)\n  const rs: number[] = []\n  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n    const rx: number[] = new Array(n)\n    const ry: number[] = new Array(n)\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n      const idx = Math.floor(rng() * n)\n      rx[i] = xs[idx]!\n      ry[i] = ys[idx]!\n    }\n    const r = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n    if (Number.isFinite(r)) rs.push(r)\n  }\n  rs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  if (rs.length === 0) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN }\n  return {\n    lower: rs[Math.floor(0.025 * rs.length)]!,\n    upper: rs[Math.min(rs.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * rs.length))]!,\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Judge sentinel — eval trustworthiness as a continuously measured,\n * alarmed trend.\n *\n * Judges are models; models change underneath us; calibration decays.\n * This module composes three existing instruments into one loop:\n *\n *   snapshot — adapters turn real instrument outputs (`calibrateJudge` /\n *              `calibrateJudgeContinuous`, `corpusInterRaterAgreement` /\n *              `continuousAgreement`, a rerun sentinel golden set) into\n *              `SentinelSnapshot`s\n *   series   — `analyzeSeries` (src/series-convergence) classifies each\n *              judge×metric history as stabilized / drifting / noisy\n *   alarm    — `judgeSentinelReport` turns trends + thresholds into named\n *              alarms; `evalHealthStamp` is the tiny object a campaign\n *              attaches to its verdicts\n *\n * Alarm conditions:\n *   - convergence state `drifting-down` on any tracked metric\n *   - irr below `minIrr`\n *   - calibrationKappa / sentinelPassRate dropped vs the series baseline\n *     beyond `maxKappaDrop` / `maxSentinelDrop`\n *   - judge model changed with no post-change golden-grounded snapshot\n *     (the silent-upgrade trap: judges agreeing with each other after a\n *     model swap proves nothing — only re-measuring against gold does)\n *   - newest snapshot older than `staleAfterDays` relative to `asOf`\n *\n * Wire-in: run the snapshot adapters from a post-campaign hook or a\n * nightly job, append to a `SentinelStore`, then compute\n * `judgeSentinelReport(await store.history(), { asOf })` with `asOf` =\n * the campaign timestamp. Attach `evalHealthStamp(report)` to campaign\n * verdicts: an alarmed sentinel means every downstream verdict carries\n * an integrity warning until the judge is recalibrated.\n *\n * The module is clock-free — every timestamp (`at`, `asOf`) is\n * caller-supplied ISO-8601, so reports are reproducible.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport type {\n  CalibrationResult,\n  CandidateScore,\n  ContinuousAgreement,\n  ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  GoldenItem,\n} from '../judge-calibration'\nimport {\n  analyzeSeries,\n  type SeriesConvergenceOptions,\n  type SeriesConvergenceResult,\n} from '../series-convergence'\nimport type { CorpusAgreementReport } from '../statistics'\n\nconst SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES = ['irr', 'calibrationKappa', 'sentinelPassRate'] as const\n\nexport type SentinelMetricName = (typeof SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES)[number]\n\nexport interface SentinelMetrics {\n  /** Inter-rater reliability — ICC(2,1) from agreement instruments. */\n  irr?: number\n  /** Weighted κ vs the human golden set (`calibrateJudge*`). */\n  calibrationKappa?: number\n  /** Fraction of a fixed sentinel golden set the judge still scores within tolerance. */\n  sentinelPassRate?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSnapshot {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO-8601 timestamp — the module never reads a clock. */\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  /** Exact model identity behind the judge (pin the full version string). */\n  judgeModel: string\n  /**\n   * Metrics measured at `at`. May be empty: an empty-metrics snapshot is a\n   * model-change marker — it records the new `judgeModel` immediately and\n   * the silent-upgrade alarm stays raised until a golden-grounded snapshot\n   * (calibrationKappa or sentinelPassRate) follows.\n   */\n  metrics: SentinelMetrics\n}\n\n/** Identity + timestamp the caller supplies alongside an instrument output. */\nexport interface SnapshotMeta {\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  judgeModel: string\n}\n\nfunction parseIso(value: string, label: string): number {\n  const ms = typeof value === 'string' ? Date.parse(value) : NaN\n  if (!Number.isFinite(ms)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `judge-sentinel: ${label} is not a parseable ISO timestamp: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return ms\n}\n\n/** Shape guard for snapshots crossing a boundary (store append, JSONL load, report input). */\nexport function validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot, source = 'snapshot'): void {\n  parseIso(snapshot.at, `${source}.at`)\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeId !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeId.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeId must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeModel !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeModel.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeModel must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (snapshot.metrics === null || typeof snapshot.metrics !== 'object') {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics must be an object (may be empty)`)\n  }\n  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(snapshot.metrics)) {\n    if (!(SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES as readonly string[]).includes(key)) {\n      // A typo'd key would silently never trend — reject instead.\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics carries unknown key \"${key}\" — known: ${SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.join(', ')}`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (value !== undefined && !Number.isFinite(value)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics.${key} is not a finite number: ${String(value)}`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Snapshot adapters — real instrument output → SentinelSnapshot ───\n\n/**\n * From `calibrateJudge` / `calibrateJudgeContinuous` output. Prefers the\n * un-rounded continuous κ_w when the report carries one (integer κ\n * discards information for [0,1] judges).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromCalibration(\n  report: CalibrationResult | ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const kappa = 'weightedKappaContinuous' in report ? report.weightedKappaContinuous : report.kappa\n  if (!Number.isFinite(kappa)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromCalibration: κ is not finite (n=${report.n}) — calibrate against ≥2 joined golden items before snapshotting`,\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { calibrationKappa: kappa } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n/**\n * From `corpusInterRaterAgreement` (statistics.ts) or `continuousAgreement`\n * (judge-calibration.ts) output. IRR = ICC(2,1) — the reliability\n * coefficient both instruments compute. For ensemble-level agreement,\n * `meta.judgeId` names the ensemble and `meta.judgeModel` pins its\n * composition (e.g. a joined list of member model strings).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromAgreement(\n  report: CorpusAgreementReport | ContinuousAgreement,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const irr = 'overallIcc' in report ? report.overallIcc : report.icc\n  if (!Number.isFinite(irr)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromAgreement: ICC is not finite — agreement needs ≥2 raters and ≥2 complete items',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { irr } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSetOptions {\n  /** Max |judge − human| for an item to count as passed. Default 0.1 (tuned for [0,1] scores). */\n  tolerance?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * From a rerun of a fixed sentinel golden set: the same `GoldenItem`s the\n * judge was originally calibrated on, re-scored periodically. Pass rate =\n * fraction of joined items where the judge stays within `tolerance` of the\n * human score. Items the judge didn't score are excluded from the\n * denominator; zero joined items is an error, not a 0% pass rate.\n */\nexport function snapshotFromSentinelSet(\n  scores: CandidateScore[],\n  golden: GoldenItem[],\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n  options: SentinelSetOptions = {},\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const tolerance = options.tolerance ?? 0.1\n  if (!Number.isFinite(tolerance) || tolerance < 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromSentinelSet: tolerance must be a finite number ≥ 0, got ${tolerance}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const goldenById = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const item of golden) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(item.humanScore)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: golden item \"${item.itemId}\" has a non-finite humanScore`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (goldenById.has(item.itemId)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: duplicate golden itemId \"${item.itemId}\"`)\n    }\n    goldenById.set(item.itemId, item.humanScore)\n  }\n  let joined = 0\n  let passed = 0\n  for (const s of scores) {\n    const human = goldenById.get(s.itemId)\n    if (human === undefined) continue\n    if (!Number.isFinite(s.score)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: judge score for item \"${s.itemId}\" is not finite`,\n      )\n    }\n    joined++\n    if (Math.abs(s.score - human) <= tolerance) passed++\n  }\n  if (joined === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromSentinelSet: no judge scores joined the golden set — itemIds mismatch or empty sentinel run',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { sentinelPassRate: passed / joined } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n// ── Persistence ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelStore {\n  append(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot): Promise<void>\n  /** All snapshots (optionally for one judge), in append order. */\n  history(judgeId?: string): Promise<SentinelSnapshot[]>\n}\n\nexport function inMemorySentinelStore(initial: SentinelSnapshot[] = []): SentinelStore {\n  for (const s of initial) validateSentinelSnapshot(s)\n  const items = initial.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }))\n  return {\n    async append(snapshot) {\n      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n      items.push({ ...snapshot, metrics: { ...snapshot.metrics } })\n    },\n    async history(judgeId) {\n      const all = items.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }))\n      return judgeId === undefined ? all : all.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId)\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * JSONL store — one snapshot per line, appended atomically per call.\n * A corrupt or shape-invalid line is a loud error naming the file and\n * line number: a sentinel history that silently drops records would\n * defeat the drift detection it exists to provide.\n */\nexport function fileSentinelStore(path: string): SentinelStore {\n  return {\n    async append(snapshot) {\n      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      const pathMod = await import('node:path')\n      await fs.mkdir(pathMod.dirname(path), { recursive: true })\n      await fs.appendFile(path, `${JSON.stringify(snapshot)}\\n`, 'utf8')\n    },\n    async history(judgeId) {\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      let raw: string\n      try {\n        raw = await fs.readFile(path, 'utf8')\n      } catch (err) {\n        if ((err as NodeJS.ErrnoException).code === 'ENOENT') return []\n        throw err\n      }\n      const lines = raw.split('\\n')\n      const snapshots: SentinelSnapshot[] = []\n      for (let i = 0; i < lines.length; i++) {\n        const line = lines[i]!\n        if (line.trim().length === 0) continue\n        let parsed: unknown\n        try {\n          parsed = JSON.parse(line)\n        } catch (err) {\n          throw new ValidationError(\n            `judge-sentinel: store at ${path} has a corrupt JSONL line ${i + 1}: ${(err as Error).message}`,\n          )\n        }\n        const snapshot = parsed as SentinelSnapshot\n        validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot, `${path}:${i + 1}`)\n        snapshots.push(snapshot)\n      }\n      return judgeId === undefined ? snapshots : snapshots.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId)\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Trend report ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelThresholds {\n  /** Floor for irr — below it the judge ensemble is unreliable regardless of trend. Default 0.6. */\n  minIrr?: number\n  /** Max tolerated calibrationKappa drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.15. */\n  maxKappaDrop?: number\n  /** Max tolerated sentinelPassRate drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.1. */\n  maxSentinelDrop?: number\n  /** Newest snapshot older than this (days, vs asOf) = the sentinel itself went blind. Default 30. */\n  staleAfterDays?: number\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeSentinelOptions {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO timestamp staleness is measured against. */\n  asOf: string\n  thresholds?: SentinelThresholds\n  /** Forwarded to `analyzeSeries` (window, stableCv, driftRun). */\n  convergence?: SeriesConvergenceOptions\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelTrend {\n  judgeId: string\n  metric: SentinelMetricName\n  /** Verbatim `analyzeSeries` state for this judge×metric history. */\n  state: SeriesConvergenceResult['state']\n  /** Newest value in the series. */\n  current: number\n  /** Oldest value in the series — the reference the drop thresholds compare against. */\n  baseline: number\n  /** current − baseline (signed; negative = decayed). */\n  drift: number\n  alarmed: boolean\n  reason?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelReport {\n  perJudge: SentinelTrend[]\n  alarms: string[]\n  healthy: boolean\n  /**\n   * `judgeId:metric` pairs with too few snapshots for the convergence\n   * machine. Named, not counted — a blind spot you can't see is a blind\n   * spot you won't fix. Floor/drop checks still apply to thin series, so\n   * insufficient history alone never masks an alarm.\n   */\n  insufficientHistory: string[]\n}\n\nconst MS_PER_DAY = 86_400_000\n\nexport function judgeSentinelReport(\n  history: SentinelSnapshot[],\n  opts: JudgeSentinelOptions,\n): SentinelReport {\n  const asOfMs = parseIso(opts.asOf, 'asOf')\n  const minIrr = opts.thresholds?.minIrr ?? 0.6\n  const maxKappaDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxKappaDrop ?? 0.15\n  const maxSentinelDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxSentinelDrop ?? 0.1\n  const staleAfterDays = opts.thresholds?.staleAfterDays ?? 30\n\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, Array<SentinelSnapshot & { atMs: number }>>()\n  for (const snapshot of history) {\n    validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n    const atMs = parseIso(snapshot.at, `snapshot.at (judge \"${snapshot.judgeId}\")`)\n    const arr = byJudge.get(snapshot.judgeId) ?? []\n    arr.push({ ...snapshot, atMs })\n    byJudge.set(snapshot.judgeId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const perJudge: SentinelTrend[] = []\n  const alarms: string[] = []\n  const insufficientHistory: string[] = []\n\n  for (const judgeId of [...byJudge.keys()].sort()) {\n    const snaps = byJudge.get(judgeId)!.sort((a, b) => a.atMs - b.atMs)\n    const newest = snaps[snaps.length - 1]!\n\n    const ageDays = (asOfMs - newest.atMs) / MS_PER_DAY\n    if (ageDays > staleAfterDays) {\n      alarms.push(\n        `judge \"${judgeId}\": stale — newest snapshot ${newest.at} is ${ageDays.toFixed(1)}d old vs asOf (limit ${staleAfterDays}d)`,\n      )\n    }\n\n    // Silent-upgrade trap: only the latest model change matters for current\n    // trust, and only golden-grounded metrics clear it — irr alone proves\n    // judges still agree with each other, not that they're still right.\n    let changeIdx = -1\n    for (let i = 1; i < snaps.length; i++) {\n      if (snaps[i]!.judgeModel !== snaps[i - 1]!.judgeModel) changeIdx = i\n    }\n    if (changeIdx >= 0) {\n      const recalibrated = snaps\n        .slice(changeIdx)\n        .some(\n          (s) =>\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.calibrationKappa) ||\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.sentinelPassRate),\n        )\n      if (!recalibrated) {\n        alarms.push(\n          `judge \"${judgeId}\": model changed \"${snaps[changeIdx - 1]!.judgeModel}\" → \"${snaps[changeIdx]!.judgeModel}\" at ${snaps[changeIdx]!.at} with no post-change calibration snapshot — silent-upgrade trap; rerun calibrateJudge or the sentinel set against the new model`,\n        )\n      }\n    }\n\n    for (const metric of SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES) {\n      const values = snaps\n        .filter((s) => typeof s.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n        .map((s) => s.metrics[metric]!)\n      if (values.length === 0) continue\n\n      const convergence = analyzeSeries(values, opts.convergence)\n      if (convergence.state === 'insufficient-data')\n        insufficientHistory.push(`${judgeId}:${metric}`)\n\n      const current = values[values.length - 1]!\n      const baseline = values[0]!\n      const drift = current - baseline\n      const reasons: string[] = []\n      if (convergence.state === 'drifting-down') {\n        reasons.push(\n          `convergence state drifting-down (tail run ${convergence.tailRun}, window mean ${convergence.windowMean.toFixed(3)})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'irr' && current < minIrr) {\n        reasons.push(`irr ${current.toFixed(3)} below floor ${minIrr}`)\n      }\n      if (metric === 'calibrationKappa' && baseline - current > maxKappaDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `calibrationKappa dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxKappaDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'sentinelPassRate' && baseline - current > maxSentinelDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `sentinelPassRate dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxSentinelDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n\n      const alarmed = reasons.length > 0\n      const trend: SentinelTrend = {\n        judgeId,\n        metric,\n        state: convergence.state,\n        current,\n        baseline,\n        drift,\n        alarmed,\n      }\n      if (alarmed) {\n        trend.reason = reasons.join('; ')\n        alarms.push(`judge \"${judgeId}\" ${metric}: ${trend.reason}`)\n      }\n      perJudge.push(trend)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { perJudge, alarms, healthy: alarms.length === 0, insufficientHistory }\n}\n\n// ── Verdict stamp ────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface EvalHealthStamp {\n  healthy: boolean\n  alarms: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * The object a campaign attaches to its verdicts. Compute it from the\n * sentinel report in a post-campaign hook (or a nightly job feeding the\n * next day's campaigns) and store it alongside the verdict payload.\n * `healthy: false` means the judges that produced those verdicts have an\n * unresolved drift / decay / silent-upgrade / staleness alarm — treat the\n * verdicts as carrying an integrity warning until recalibration clears it.\n */\nexport function evalHealthStamp(report: SentinelReport): EvalHealthStamp {\n  return { healthy: report.healthy, alarms: [...report.alarms] 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package/dist/{mint-DfODW1KW.js → mint-DjfDUMHr.js}

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { s as ValidationError } from "./errors-Dngq5h35.js";
 import { a as scoreOrigin, i as rolloutRewardFields } from "./reward-nw2xZGZG.js";
-import { s as runTaskScore } from "./run-record-BC0ebuRP.js";
+import { s as runTaskScore } from "./run-record-DLORoL7t.js";
 import { t as buildTrajectory } from "./trajectory-D_7rLrvE.js";
 import { a as assertMinted, r as ROLLOUT_SCHEMA } from "./schema-C1aaAxTf.js";
 //#region src/rollout/mint.ts
@@ -315,4 +315,4 @@ async function mintRolloutRows(records, store, options = {}) {
 //#endregion
 export { unmintableReasons as n, mintRolloutRows as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=mint-DfODW1KW.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=mint-DjfDUMHr.js.map

package/dist/{mint-DfODW1KW.js.map → mint-DjfDUMHr.js.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"mint-DfODW1KW.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/rollout/mint.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Rollout minting — `tangle.rollout.v1` lines joined from the records the\n * substrate ALREADY keeps. There is no separate rollout store: a rollout\n * is the JOIN of a RunRecord (identity, provenance, cost, outcome) with\n * its trace (spans share `runId`), projected into the canonical line.\n *\n * Composition, not duplication:\n *   - identity/provenance     → `RunRecord` (candidateId, splitTag, agentProfile, hashes)\n *   - step structure          → `buildTrajectory` over the shared TraceStore\n *   - preference-pair export  → `feedbackTrajectoryToOptimizerRow` (feedback-trajectory.ts)\n *   - PRM / reward-model      → `reward-model-export.ts`\n *\n * Anti-Goodhart invariant: a run whose `outcome.realness.gated` is true is\n * never exported with a positive reward OR with any of the numbers that reward\n * was computed from. The gate travels into the training data (`reward` forced\n * to 0, `realness_gated: true`) and the whole outcome is transformed by\n * `gateGamedOutcome` inside `assertMinted` below, which relocates `metrics` and\n * `verdict` to `provenance.gated_evidence`. Mint returns\n * `MintedRolloutLine[]`: the brand the training exporters require, which only\n * this function, `readRolloutLedger`, and an explicit `assertMinted` can mint.\n *\n * A record carrying NEITHER split score is REJECTED (`ValidationError`), never\n * minted at 0 — \"nobody graded this\" is not the same claim as \"graded a total\n * failure\", and a trainer reading 0 learns the second. Lines that already\n * carry `reward: null` (interchange imports, existing ledgers) remain valid on\n * the wire; only the RunRecord→line door refuses.\n *\n * Records without spans become labeled GAP LINES (messages: [],\n * provenance.gap) — present in the output AND surfaced in\n * `missingTraces`; a capture gap is a finding, never a silent omission.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { type RunRecord, runTaskScore } from '../run-record'\nimport type { LlmSpan, Message, Span, ToolSpan } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport { buildTrajectory } from '../trajectory'\nimport { rolloutRewardFields, scoreOrigin } from './reward'\nimport {\n  assertMinted,\n  type ChatMessage,\n  type MintedRolloutLine,\n  ROLLOUT_SCHEMA,\n  type RolloutRole,\n  type RolloutSplit,\n  type RolloutStep,\n} from './schema'\n\n/** Redactor applied to every exported string (secrets, PII). Identity by default. */\nexport type RolloutScrubber = (text: string) => string\n\nexport interface MintRolloutOptions {\n  scrub?: RolloutScrubber\n  /** Cap steps per line (longest runs first drop middle steps). Default: no cap. */\n  maxSteps?: number\n  /** Role recorded on every minted line. Default 'agent' (a solo eval run). */\n  role?: RolloutRole\n  /** Task suite label. Default: the record's `experimentId`. */\n  suite?: string\n  /** Injected clock for deterministic output. */\n  now?: () => Date\n}\n\nexport interface MintRolloutResult {\n  rows: MintedRolloutLine[]\n  /** runIds that had a RunRecord but no spans — emitted as gap lines AND listed here. */\n  missingTraces: string[]\n}\n\nconst asText = (v: unknown, scrub: RolloutScrubber): string => {\n  const s = typeof v === 'string' ? v : JSON.stringify(v)\n  return scrub(s ?? '')\n}\n\nfunction projectStep(span: Span, scrub: RolloutScrubber): RolloutStep {\n  const base: RolloutStep = {\n    kind: span.kind,\n    name: scrub(span.name),\n    status: span.status,\n    durationMs: span.endedAt !== undefined ? span.endedAt - span.startedAt : undefined,\n  }\n  if (span.kind === 'llm') {\n    const llm = span as LlmSpan\n    const last = llm.messages[llm.messages.length - 1]\n    if (last) base.input = scrub(last.content)\n    if (llm.output !== undefined) base.output = scrub(llm.output)\n  } else if (span.kind === 'tool') {\n    const tool = span as ToolSpan\n    base.input = asText(tool.args, scrub)\n    if (tool.result !== undefined) base.output = asText(tool.result, scrub)\n  }\n  return base\n}\n\n/** The final llm span's history + output is the completed conversation. */\nfunction finalConversation(spans: Span[], scrub: RolloutScrubber): ChatMessage[] {\n  const llms = spans.filter((s): s is LlmSpan => s.kind === 'llm')\n  const last = llms[llms.length - 1]\n  if (!last) return []\n  const messages: ChatMessage[] = last.messages.map((m: Message) => ({\n    role: m.role,\n    content: scrub(m.content),\n  }))\n  if (last.output !== undefined && last.output !== '') {\n    messages.push({ role: 'assistant', content: scrub(last.output) })\n  }\n  return messages\n}\n\n// The reward derivations live in the leaf module `./reward` so gate and\n// reporting code can import them without dragging in the trace store; they are\n// re-exported here because the derivations shipped from this path.\nexport {\n  isRealnessGated,\n  observedScore,\n  observedSplitScore,\n  type ScoreOrigin,\n  type ScorePreference,\n  scoreOrigin,\n  trainingReward,\n  trainingScore,\n} from './reward'\n\nconst REWARD_SOURCE: Record<ReturnType<typeof scoreOrigin>, string> = {\n  holdout: 'run-record/holdout-score',\n  search: 'run-record/search-score',\n  unscored: 'run-record/unscored',\n}\n\n/**\n * The mint door refuses an execution-only record: a missing training label is\n * not a zero reward, and not a mintable line either. Lines that already carry\n * `reward: null` — interchange imports, existing ledgers — stay valid on the\n * wire and keep their labeled gap; this guard is only about the\n * RunRecord→line door, where the producer can still be told to go score the\n * run instead of shipping an unlabeled row.\n */\nfunction requireTaskScore(record: RunRecord): void {\n  if (runTaskScore(record) === undefined) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`Cannot mint rollout for run ${record.runId}: task score is missing`)\n  }\n}\n\nconst isObject = (value: unknown): value is Record<string, unknown> =>\n  typeof value === 'object' && value !== null\n\ninterface MintFieldCheck {\n  /** The RunRecord path, spelled the way the caller has to fix it. */\n  readonly field: string\n  /** True when the record carries something the line can honestly be built from. */\n  readonly present: (bag: Record<string, unknown>) => boolean\n  /** What the caller writes onto the record, and why that value and not another. */\n  readonly remedy: string\n}\n\n/**\n * The RunRecord fields mint reads that a record can be missing even though the\n * TYPE says it cannot. There are exactly two ways that happens:\n *\n *   1. The field was OPTIONAL when the record was serialized. `costProvenance`,\n *      `terminalOutcome` and `scenarioId` were optional through agent-eval\n *      0.125 and became required in 0.126, with no on-disk migration — so every\n *      ledger written before 0.126 is full of records the type calls complete.\n *   2. Mint reads a level DEEPER than the record's own type is checked at:\n *      `outcome.raw`, `tokenUsage.input`, `tokenUsage.output`.\n *\n * Nothing else needs a check here. Every other field mint copies is a top-level\n * scalar landing in a typed slot on the line, where an absent value arrives as\n * `undefined` and `assertMinted` refuses it by name. These are the ones where an\n * absent value instead kills the join with `TypeError: Cannot read properties of\n * undefined`, or — worse — mints a line that reads as measured.\n *\n * This is deliberately NOT `validateRunRecord`. That validator answers \"is this\n * a valid RunRecord\", which is a wider question than \"can a rollout line be\n * built from this one\": it also enforces model-snapshot discipline, the\n * `terminalFailureReason` coupling, and the `costUsd === costProvenance.usd`\n * agreement. Routing the mint door through it would refuse records mint can\n * mint honestly today (a model alias with no snapshot date, for one), which is\n * a policy change with its own blast radius and not this bug. The door asks the\n * narrower question and answers it precisely.\n */\nconst MINT_FIELD_CHECKS: readonly MintFieldCheck[] = [\n  {\n    field: 'costProvenance',\n    present: (bag) => isObject(bag.costProvenance) && typeof bag.costProvenance.kind === 'string',\n    remedy:\n      \"Records written before agent-eval 0.126 predate this field and carry `costUsd: 0` as the documented uncaptured sentinel, which is NOT an observed zero. Backfill it as costProvenance: { kind: 'uncaptured', usd: null } WITH costUsd: null — an uncaptured cost whose costUsd is non-null is rejected by validateRunRecord, so provenance alone leaves the record invalid.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'tokenUsage',\n    present: (bag) => isObject(bag.tokenUsage),\n    remedy:\n      \"The line's cost.tokens_in and cost.tokens_out are read from it. Backfill it from the provider's usage report; mint will not write 0 for tokens nobody counted.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'tokenUsage.input',\n    present: (bag) => !isObject(bag.tokenUsage) || typeof bag.tokenUsage.input === 'number',\n    remedy: \"The line's cost.tokens_in is read from it, and a missing count is not a zero count.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'tokenUsage.output',\n    present: (bag) => !isObject(bag.tokenUsage) || typeof bag.tokenUsage.output === 'number',\n    remedy: \"The line's cost.tokens_out is read from it, and a missing count is not a zero count.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'outcome',\n    present: (bag) => isObject(bag.outcome),\n    remedy:\n      \"The line's reward, reward_source and metrics are all read from it. A record with no outcome carries no training label at all, and mint refuses an unlabeled row.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'outcome.raw',\n    // Reported only when `outcome` itself is present: one absent field should\n    // produce one reason per CAUSE, not one per path that dereferences it.\n    present: (bag) => !isObject(bag.outcome) || isObject(bag.outcome.raw),\n    remedy:\n      'It is the metric bag copied verbatim into the line\\'s outcome.metrics. `{ ...undefined }` spreads to `{}` without complaint, so an absent bag would mint as \"this run reported no metrics\" — a different claim from \"this record predates the field\". Backfill it as {} only when that is what you mean.',\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'terminalOutcome',\n    present: (bag) => typeof bag.terminalOutcome === 'string',\n    remedy:\n      \"It became required in agent-eval 0.126. Backfill it from root-run or process evidence, or as 'unknown' when the producer has none — mint will not decide the line's is_completed and is_truncated for you.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'scenarioId',\n    present: (bag) => typeof bag.scenarioId === 'string' && bag.scenarioId.length > 0,\n    remedy:\n      \"It became required in agent-eval 0.126 and becomes the line's task.instance_id, which must be a non-empty string. Backfill it from the scenario the run was dealt (pre-0.126 producers often left it in outcome.raw.scenario_id).\",\n  },\n]\n\n/**\n * Why a record cannot be minted, one entry per missing field, empty when it can.\n *\n * Exported so a caller can partition a whole ledger — \"which of my 2742 records\n * predate 0.126\" — without catching an exception per record, and without\n * re-deriving the field list on their side. A re-derived list is a list that\n * drifts from the door it is supposed to predict.\n *\n * Takes a `RunRecord` because that is what the caller holds and what the\n * compiler agrees they hold. The type is precisely the thing that is wrong, so\n * the checks read the record as the untyped bag it actually is on disk.\n */\nexport function unmintableReasons(record: RunRecord): string[] {\n  const bag = record as unknown as Record<string, unknown>\n  return MINT_FIELD_CHECKS.filter((check) => !check.present(bag)).map(\n    (check) => `${check.field} is missing. ${check.remedy}`,\n  )\n}\n\n/**\n * The mint door THROWS on a record it cannot build a line from. It does NOT\n * normalise an absent `costProvenance` to `{kind:'uncaptured', usd:null}`, and\n * the choice is not stylistic:\n *\n *   - Normalising cannot cover the record, only part of it. `terminalOutcome`\n *     feeds `is_completed` and `is_truncated`, which the rollout schema requires\n *     to be BOOLEAN — there is no null to fall back to, so every possible\n *     default is a claim about how the run ended. A door that quietly fixes the\n *     cost and invents the ending is a door no caller can predict.\n *   - Normalising the cost requires knowing what `costUsd: 0` meant, and mint\n *     cannot know. A genuinely free run and an uncaptured one are the same bytes\n *     in a pre-0.126 record; only the producer can tell them apart. Guessing is\n *     exactly the failure this guard exists to stop — the 0.125 optional chain\n *     `record.costProvenance?.kind === 'uncaptured'` already made that guess,\n *     silently, and every record it touched minted `cost.usd: 0`: an unmeasured\n *     cost published as a measured zero, into a training dataset.\n *   - `requireTaskScore`, directly above, already refuses an unlabeled record\n *     for the same reason: \"nobody graded this\" is not \"graded zero\". \"Nobody\n *     billed this\" is not \"billed zero\".\n *\n * The caller who wants historical records minted backfills them at their store,\n * in one pass, where `costUsd` can be corrected alongside `costProvenance` —\n * which is the only place that decision can be made correctly. The refusal names\n * the run, names every missing field, and spells the value to write.\n */\nfunction requireMintableRecord(record: RunRecord): void {\n  const reasons = unmintableReasons(record)\n  if (reasons.length === 0) return\n  throw new ValidationError(`Cannot mint rollout for run ${record.runId}: ${reasons.join('\\n  ')}`)\n}\n\nconst SPLIT_FROM_TAG: Record<RunRecord['splitTag'], RolloutSplit> = {\n  search: 'search',\n  dev: 'dev',\n  holdout: 'holdout',\n}\n\nfunction mintLine(\n  record: RunRecord,\n  steps: RolloutStep[],\n  messages: ChatMessage[],\n  options: MintRolloutOptions,\n  capturedAt: string,\n  gap?: string,\n): MintedRolloutLine {\n  // Field presence first, and BEFORE `requireTaskScore`: that guard reads\n  // `record.outcome.searchScore` on its way to the answer, so an absent\n  // `outcome` would throw a bare TypeError from inside the guard whose whole\n  // job is to produce a clean refusal.\n  //\n  // Both branches of `mintRolloutRows` — the traced line and the gap line —\n  // land here, which is the point: `mintLine` is the only constructor of a\n  // `MintedRolloutLine` from a RunRecord, so there is no path into the waist\n  // that skips the check and no way to get this wrong from the outside.\n  requireMintableRecord(record)\n  // A missing task score is refused before anything is built: an\n  // execution-only record has no training label, and a missing label is\n  // neither a zero reward nor a mintable row.\n  requireTaskScore(record)\n  // `reward` and `realness_gated` come out of one call, so neither door into\n  // the waist can write one and forget the other.\n  const rewardFields = rolloutRewardFields(record)\n  const uncaptured = record.costProvenance.kind === 'uncaptured'\n  const terminalOutcome = record.terminalOutcome\n  const isCompleted = terminalOutcome === 'succeeded' || terminalOutcome === 'failed'\n  const isTruncated = terminalOutcome === 'cancelled' || terminalOutcome === 'incomplete'\n  const terminalError =\n    terminalOutcome === 'failed' ||\n    terminalOutcome === 'cancelled' ||\n    terminalOutcome === 'incomplete'\n      ? (record.terminalFailureReason ?? `run ended ${terminalOutcome}`)\n      : null\n  // `assertMinted` rather than a cast: mint is the producer the whole gate\n  // rests on, so it proves the line it just built is valid instead of asserting\n  // it by fiat. The brand is unforgeable precisely because nobody casts to it.\n  return assertMinted(\n    {\n      schema: ROLLOUT_SCHEMA,\n      rollout_id: record.runId,\n      parent_rollout_id: null,\n      run_id: record.runId,\n      experiment_id: record.experimentId,\n      candidate_id: record.candidateId,\n      generation: null,\n      candidate_index: null,\n      role: options.role ?? 'agent',\n      task: {\n        suite: options.suite ?? record.experimentId,\n        instance_id: record.scenarioId,\n        split: SPLIT_FROM_TAG[record.splitTag],\n        seed: record.seed,\n        rep: 0,\n      },\n      policy: {\n        harness: null,\n        harness_version: null,\n        model: record.model,\n        provider: null,\n        profile_commit: record.commitSha,\n        prompt_hash: record.promptHash,\n        config_hash: record.configHash,\n        agent_profile_cell_id: record.agentProfile?.cellId ?? null,\n        sampling: null,\n      },\n      messages,\n      tool_defs: [],\n      ...(steps.length > 0 ? { steps } : {}),\n      outcome: {\n        ...rewardFields,\n        reward_source: REWARD_SOURCE[scoreOrigin(record)],\n        verdict: null,\n        // A verbatim bulk copy, deliberately UNFILTERED here. `outcome.raw`\n        // holds the per-layer verifier scores (`layer.*`) that the reward was\n        // derived from, so on a gated run this dict is the reward signal in\n        // component form — but filtering it at this call site is the pattern\n        // that has now leaked twice, because the next producer to write a\n        // reward-bearing field forgets. The gate is applied to the whole\n        // outcome once, in `assertMinted` below (`gateGamedOutcome`), which\n        // moves the block to `provenance.gated_evidence` when the run is gated\n        // and leaves it here untouched when it is not.\n        metrics: { ...record.outcome.raw },\n        is_completed: isCompleted,\n        is_truncated: isTruncated,\n        error: terminalError,\n      },\n      cost: {\n        usd: uncaptured ? null : record.costUsd,\n        tokens_in: record.tokenUsage.input,\n        tokens_out: record.tokenUsage.output,\n        tokens_reasoning: record.tokenUsage.reasoning ?? null,\n        cache_read: record.tokenUsage.cached ?? null,\n        cache_write: record.tokenUsage.cacheWrite ?? null,\n        wall_s: Math.round(record.wallMs / 1000),\n      },\n      artifacts: { patch_path: null, run_dir: null, transcript_ref: null },\n      provenance: {\n        captured_at: capturedAt,\n        capture: 'mint',\n        ...(gap !== undefined ? { gap } : {}),\n      },\n    },\n    `minted rollout line for run ${record.runId}`,\n  )\n}\n\n/**\n * Join RunRecords with their traces into canonical rollout lines. Records\n * without spans are emitted as labeled gap lines and reported in\n * `missingTraces`. Execution-only records without a task score are rejected\n * because a missing training label is not a zero reward.\n */\nexport async function mintRolloutRows(\n  records: RunRecord[],\n  store: TraceStore,\n  options: MintRolloutOptions = {},\n): Promise<MintRolloutResult> {\n  const scrub = options.scrub ?? ((t) => t)\n  const capturedAt = (options.now?.() ?? new Date()).toISOString()\n  const rows: MintedRolloutLine[] = []\n  const missingTraces: string[] = []\n  for (const record of records) {\n    const trajectory = await buildTrajectory(store, record.runId)\n    if (trajectory.steps.length === 0) {\n      missingTraces.push(record.runId)\n      rows.push(\n        mintLine(record, [], [], options, capturedAt, 'no trace spans recorded for this runId'),\n      )\n      continue\n    }\n    let steps = trajectory.steps.map((s) => projectStep(s.span, scrub))\n    if (options.maxSteps !== undefined && steps.length > options.maxSteps) {\n      // Keep the head and tail — the middle of a long run is the least\n      // informative for outcome attribution.\n      const head = Math.ceil(options.maxSteps / 2)\n      const tail = options.maxSteps - head\n      steps = [...steps.slice(0, head), ...steps.slice(steps.length - tail)]\n    }\n    const conversation = finalConversation(\n      trajectory.steps.map((s) => s.span),\n      scrub,\n    )\n    const gap =\n      conversation.length === 0 ? 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+{"version":3,"file":"mint-DjfDUMHr.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/rollout/mint.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Rollout minting — `tangle.rollout.v1` lines joined from the records the\n * substrate ALREADY keeps. There is no separate rollout store: a rollout\n * is the JOIN of a RunRecord (identity, provenance, cost, outcome) with\n * its trace (spans share `runId`), projected into the canonical line.\n *\n * Composition, not duplication:\n *   - identity/provenance     → `RunRecord` (candidateId, splitTag, agentProfile, hashes)\n *   - step structure          → `buildTrajectory` over the shared TraceStore\n *   - preference-pair export  → `feedbackTrajectoryToOptimizerRow` (feedback-trajectory.ts)\n *   - PRM / reward-model      → `reward-model-export.ts`\n *\n * Anti-Goodhart invariant: a run whose `outcome.realness.gated` is true is\n * never exported with a positive reward OR with any of the numbers that reward\n * was computed from. The gate travels into the training data (`reward` forced\n * to 0, `realness_gated: true`) and the whole outcome is transformed by\n * `gateGamedOutcome` inside `assertMinted` below, which relocates `metrics` and\n * `verdict` to `provenance.gated_evidence`. Mint returns\n * `MintedRolloutLine[]`: the brand the training exporters require, which only\n * this function, `readRolloutLedger`, and an explicit `assertMinted` can mint.\n *\n * A record carrying NEITHER split score is REJECTED (`ValidationError`), never\n * minted at 0 — \"nobody graded this\" is not the same claim as \"graded a total\n * failure\", and a trainer reading 0 learns the second. Lines that already\n * carry `reward: null` (interchange imports, existing ledgers) remain valid on\n * the wire; only the RunRecord→line door refuses.\n *\n * Records without spans become labeled GAP LINES (messages: [],\n * provenance.gap) — present in the output AND surfaced in\n * `missingTraces`; a capture gap is a finding, never a silent omission.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { type RunRecord, runTaskScore } from '../run-record'\nimport type { LlmSpan, Message, Span, ToolSpan } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport { buildTrajectory } from '../trajectory'\nimport { rolloutRewardFields, scoreOrigin } from './reward'\nimport {\n  assertMinted,\n  type ChatMessage,\n  type MintedRolloutLine,\n  ROLLOUT_SCHEMA,\n  type RolloutRole,\n  type RolloutSplit,\n  type RolloutStep,\n} from './schema'\n\n/** Redactor applied to every exported string (secrets, PII). Identity by default. */\nexport type RolloutScrubber = (text: string) => string\n\nexport interface MintRolloutOptions {\n  scrub?: RolloutScrubber\n  /** Cap steps per line (longest runs first drop middle steps). Default: no cap. */\n  maxSteps?: number\n  /** Role recorded on every minted line. Default 'agent' (a solo eval run). */\n  role?: RolloutRole\n  /** Task suite label. Default: the record's `experimentId`. */\n  suite?: string\n  /** Injected clock for deterministic output. */\n  now?: () => Date\n}\n\nexport interface MintRolloutResult {\n  rows: MintedRolloutLine[]\n  /** runIds that had a RunRecord but no spans — emitted as gap lines AND listed here. */\n  missingTraces: string[]\n}\n\nconst asText = (v: unknown, scrub: RolloutScrubber): string => {\n  const s = typeof v === 'string' ? v : JSON.stringify(v)\n  return scrub(s ?? '')\n}\n\nfunction projectStep(span: Span, scrub: RolloutScrubber): RolloutStep {\n  const base: RolloutStep = {\n    kind: span.kind,\n    name: scrub(span.name),\n    status: span.status,\n    durationMs: span.endedAt !== undefined ? span.endedAt - span.startedAt : undefined,\n  }\n  if (span.kind === 'llm') {\n    const llm = span as LlmSpan\n    const last = llm.messages[llm.messages.length - 1]\n    if (last) base.input = scrub(last.content)\n    if (llm.output !== undefined) base.output = scrub(llm.output)\n  } else if (span.kind === 'tool') {\n    const tool = span as ToolSpan\n    base.input = asText(tool.args, scrub)\n    if (tool.result !== undefined) base.output = asText(tool.result, scrub)\n  }\n  return base\n}\n\n/** The final llm span's history + output is the completed conversation. */\nfunction finalConversation(spans: Span[], scrub: RolloutScrubber): ChatMessage[] {\n  const llms = spans.filter((s): s is LlmSpan => s.kind === 'llm')\n  const last = llms[llms.length - 1]\n  if (!last) return []\n  const messages: ChatMessage[] = last.messages.map((m: Message) => ({\n    role: m.role,\n    content: scrub(m.content),\n  }))\n  if (last.output !== undefined && last.output !== '') {\n    messages.push({ role: 'assistant', content: scrub(last.output) })\n  }\n  return messages\n}\n\n// The reward derivations live in the leaf module `./reward` so gate and\n// reporting code can import them without dragging in the trace store; they are\n// re-exported here because the derivations shipped from this path.\nexport {\n  isRealnessGated,\n  observedScore,\n  observedSplitScore,\n  type ScoreOrigin,\n  type ScorePreference,\n  scoreOrigin,\n  trainingReward,\n  trainingScore,\n} from './reward'\n\nconst REWARD_SOURCE: Record<ReturnType<typeof scoreOrigin>, string> = {\n  holdout: 'run-record/holdout-score',\n  search: 'run-record/search-score',\n  unscored: 'run-record/unscored',\n}\n\n/**\n * The mint door refuses an execution-only record: a missing training label is\n * not a zero reward, and not a mintable line either. Lines that already carry\n * `reward: null` — interchange imports, existing ledgers — stay valid on the\n * wire and keep their labeled gap; this guard is only about the\n * RunRecord→line door, where the producer can still be told to go score the\n * run instead of shipping an unlabeled row.\n */\nfunction requireTaskScore(record: RunRecord): void {\n  if (runTaskScore(record) === undefined) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`Cannot mint rollout for run ${record.runId}: task score is missing`)\n  }\n}\n\nconst isObject = (value: unknown): value is Record<string, unknown> =>\n  typeof value === 'object' && value !== null\n\ninterface MintFieldCheck {\n  /** The RunRecord path, spelled the way the caller has to fix it. */\n  readonly field: string\n  /** True when the record carries something the line can honestly be built from. */\n  readonly present: (bag: Record<string, unknown>) => boolean\n  /** What the caller writes onto the record, and why that value and not another. */\n  readonly remedy: string\n}\n\n/**\n * The RunRecord fields mint reads that a record can be missing even though the\n * TYPE says it cannot. There are exactly two ways that happens:\n *\n *   1. The field was OPTIONAL when the record was serialized. `costProvenance`,\n *      `terminalOutcome` and `scenarioId` were optional through agent-eval\n *      0.125 and became required in 0.126, with no on-disk migration — so every\n *      ledger written before 0.126 is full of records the type calls complete.\n *   2. Mint reads a level DEEPER than the record's own type is checked at:\n *      `outcome.raw`, `tokenUsage.input`, `tokenUsage.output`.\n *\n * Nothing else needs a check here. Every other field mint copies is a top-level\n * scalar landing in a typed slot on the line, where an absent value arrives as\n * `undefined` and `assertMinted` refuses it by name. These are the ones where an\n * absent value instead kills the join with `TypeError: Cannot read properties of\n * undefined`, or — worse — mints a line that reads as measured.\n *\n * This is deliberately NOT `validateRunRecord`. That validator answers \"is this\n * a valid RunRecord\", which is a wider question than \"can a rollout line be\n * built from this one\": it also enforces model-snapshot discipline, the\n * `terminalFailureReason` coupling, and the `costUsd === costProvenance.usd`\n * agreement. Routing the mint door through it would refuse records mint can\n * mint honestly today (a model alias with no snapshot date, for one), which is\n * a policy change with its own blast radius and not this bug. The door asks the\n * narrower question and answers it precisely.\n */\nconst MINT_FIELD_CHECKS: readonly MintFieldCheck[] = [\n  {\n    field: 'costProvenance',\n    present: (bag) => isObject(bag.costProvenance) && typeof bag.costProvenance.kind === 'string',\n    remedy:\n      \"Records written before agent-eval 0.126 predate this field and carry `costUsd: 0` as the documented uncaptured sentinel, which is NOT an observed zero. Backfill it as costProvenance: { kind: 'uncaptured', usd: null } WITH costUsd: null — an uncaptured cost whose costUsd is non-null is rejected by validateRunRecord, so provenance alone leaves the record invalid.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'tokenUsage',\n    present: (bag) => isObject(bag.tokenUsage),\n    remedy:\n      \"The line's cost.tokens_in and cost.tokens_out are read from it. Backfill it from the provider's usage report; mint will not write 0 for tokens nobody counted.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'tokenUsage.input',\n    present: (bag) => !isObject(bag.tokenUsage) || typeof bag.tokenUsage.input === 'number',\n    remedy: \"The line's cost.tokens_in is read from it, and a missing count is not a zero count.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'tokenUsage.output',\n    present: (bag) => !isObject(bag.tokenUsage) || typeof bag.tokenUsage.output === 'number',\n    remedy: \"The line's cost.tokens_out is read from it, and a missing count is not a zero count.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'outcome',\n    present: (bag) => isObject(bag.outcome),\n    remedy:\n      \"The line's reward, reward_source and metrics are all read from it. A record with no outcome carries no training label at all, and mint refuses an unlabeled row.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'outcome.raw',\n    // Reported only when `outcome` itself is present: one absent field should\n    // produce one reason per CAUSE, not one per path that dereferences it.\n    present: (bag) => !isObject(bag.outcome) || isObject(bag.outcome.raw),\n    remedy:\n      'It is the metric bag copied verbatim into the line\\'s outcome.metrics. `{ ...undefined }` spreads to `{}` without complaint, so an absent bag would mint as \"this run reported no metrics\" — a different claim from \"this record predates the field\". Backfill it as {} only when that is what you mean.',\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'terminalOutcome',\n    present: (bag) => typeof bag.terminalOutcome === 'string',\n    remedy:\n      \"It became required in agent-eval 0.126. Backfill it from root-run or process evidence, or as 'unknown' when the producer has none — mint will not decide the line's is_completed and is_truncated for you.\",\n  },\n  {\n    field: 'scenarioId',\n    present: (bag) => typeof bag.scenarioId === 'string' && bag.scenarioId.length > 0,\n    remedy:\n      \"It became required in agent-eval 0.126 and becomes the line's task.instance_id, which must be a non-empty string. Backfill it from the scenario the run was dealt (pre-0.126 producers often left it in outcome.raw.scenario_id).\",\n  },\n]\n\n/**\n * Why a record cannot be minted, one entry per missing field, empty when it can.\n *\n * Exported so a caller can partition a whole ledger — \"which of my 2742 records\n * predate 0.126\" — without catching an exception per record, and without\n * re-deriving the field list on their side. A re-derived list is a list that\n * drifts from the door it is supposed to predict.\n *\n * Takes a `RunRecord` because that is what the caller holds and what the\n * compiler agrees they hold. The type is precisely the thing that is wrong, so\n * the checks read the record as the untyped bag it actually is on disk.\n */\nexport function unmintableReasons(record: RunRecord): string[] {\n  const bag = record as unknown as Record<string, unknown>\n  return MINT_FIELD_CHECKS.filter((check) => !check.present(bag)).map(\n    (check) => `${check.field} is missing. ${check.remedy}`,\n  )\n}\n\n/**\n * The mint door THROWS on a record it cannot build a line from. It does NOT\n * normalise an absent `costProvenance` to `{kind:'uncaptured', usd:null}`, and\n * the choice is not stylistic:\n *\n *   - Normalising cannot cover the record, only part of it. `terminalOutcome`\n *     feeds `is_completed` and `is_truncated`, which the rollout schema requires\n *     to be BOOLEAN — there is no null to fall back to, so every possible\n *     default is a claim about how the run ended. A door that quietly fixes the\n *     cost and invents the ending is a door no caller can predict.\n *   - Normalising the cost requires knowing what `costUsd: 0` meant, and mint\n *     cannot know. A genuinely free run and an uncaptured one are the same bytes\n *     in a pre-0.126 record; only the producer can tell them apart. Guessing is\n *     exactly the failure this guard exists to stop — the 0.125 optional chain\n *     `record.costProvenance?.kind === 'uncaptured'` already made that guess,\n *     silently, and every record it touched minted `cost.usd: 0`: an unmeasured\n *     cost published as a measured zero, into a training dataset.\n *   - `requireTaskScore`, directly above, already refuses an unlabeled record\n *     for the same reason: \"nobody graded this\" is not \"graded zero\". \"Nobody\n *     billed this\" is not \"billed zero\".\n *\n * The caller who wants historical records minted backfills them at their store,\n * in one pass, where `costUsd` can be corrected alongside `costProvenance` —\n * which is the only place that decision can be made correctly. The refusal names\n * the run, names every missing field, and spells the value to write.\n */\nfunction requireMintableRecord(record: RunRecord): void {\n  const reasons = unmintableReasons(record)\n  if (reasons.length === 0) return\n  throw new ValidationError(`Cannot mint rollout for run ${record.runId}: ${reasons.join('\\n  ')}`)\n}\n\nconst SPLIT_FROM_TAG: Record<RunRecord['splitTag'], RolloutSplit> = {\n  search: 'search',\n  dev: 'dev',\n  holdout: 'holdout',\n}\n\nfunction mintLine(\n  record: RunRecord,\n  steps: RolloutStep[],\n  messages: ChatMessage[],\n  options: MintRolloutOptions,\n  capturedAt: string,\n  gap?: string,\n): MintedRolloutLine {\n  // Field presence first, and BEFORE `requireTaskScore`: that guard reads\n  // `record.outcome.searchScore` on its way to the answer, so an absent\n  // `outcome` would throw a bare TypeError from inside the guard whose whole\n  // job is to produce a clean refusal.\n  //\n  // Both branches of `mintRolloutRows` — the traced line and the gap line —\n  // land here, which is the point: `mintLine` is the only constructor of a\n  // `MintedRolloutLine` from a RunRecord, so there is no path into the waist\n  // that skips the check and no way to get this wrong from the outside.\n  requireMintableRecord(record)\n  // A missing task score is refused before anything is built: an\n  // execution-only record has no training label, and a missing label is\n  // neither a zero reward nor a mintable row.\n  requireTaskScore(record)\n  // `reward` and `realness_gated` come out of one call, so neither door into\n  // the waist can write one and forget the other.\n  const rewardFields = rolloutRewardFields(record)\n  const uncaptured = record.costProvenance.kind === 'uncaptured'\n  const terminalOutcome = record.terminalOutcome\n  const isCompleted = terminalOutcome === 'succeeded' || terminalOutcome === 'failed'\n  const isTruncated = terminalOutcome === 'cancelled' || terminalOutcome === 'incomplete'\n  const terminalError =\n    terminalOutcome === 'failed' ||\n    terminalOutcome === 'cancelled' ||\n    terminalOutcome === 'incomplete'\n      ? (record.terminalFailureReason ?? `run ended ${terminalOutcome}`)\n      : null\n  // `assertMinted` rather than a cast: mint is the producer the whole gate\n  // rests on, so it proves the line it just built is valid instead of asserting\n  // it by fiat. The brand is unforgeable precisely because nobody casts to it.\n  return assertMinted(\n    {\n      schema: ROLLOUT_SCHEMA,\n      rollout_id: record.runId,\n      parent_rollout_id: null,\n      run_id: record.runId,\n      experiment_id: record.experimentId,\n      candidate_id: record.candidateId,\n      generation: null,\n      candidate_index: null,\n      role: options.role ?? 'agent',\n      task: {\n        suite: options.suite ?? record.experimentId,\n        instance_id: record.scenarioId,\n        split: SPLIT_FROM_TAG[record.splitTag],\n        seed: record.seed,\n        rep: 0,\n      },\n      policy: {\n        harness: null,\n        harness_version: null,\n        model: record.model,\n        provider: null,\n        profile_commit: record.commitSha,\n        prompt_hash: record.promptHash,\n        config_hash: record.configHash,\n        agent_profile_cell_id: record.agentProfile?.cellId ?? null,\n        sampling: null,\n      },\n      messages,\n      tool_defs: [],\n      ...(steps.length > 0 ? { steps } : {}),\n      outcome: {\n        ...rewardFields,\n        reward_source: REWARD_SOURCE[scoreOrigin(record)],\n        verdict: null,\n        // A verbatim bulk copy, deliberately UNFILTERED here. `outcome.raw`\n        // holds the per-layer verifier scores (`layer.*`) that the reward was\n        // derived from, so on a gated run this dict is the reward signal in\n        // component form — but filtering it at this call site is the pattern\n        // that has now leaked twice, because the next producer to write a\n        // reward-bearing field forgets. The gate is applied to the whole\n        // outcome once, in `assertMinted` below (`gateGamedOutcome`), which\n        // moves the block to `provenance.gated_evidence` when the run is gated\n        // and leaves it here untouched when it is not.\n        metrics: { ...record.outcome.raw },\n        is_completed: isCompleted,\n        is_truncated: isTruncated,\n        error: terminalError,\n      },\n      cost: {\n        usd: uncaptured ? null : record.costUsd,\n        tokens_in: record.tokenUsage.input,\n        tokens_out: record.tokenUsage.output,\n        tokens_reasoning: record.tokenUsage.reasoning ?? null,\n        cache_read: record.tokenUsage.cached ?? null,\n        cache_write: record.tokenUsage.cacheWrite ?? null,\n        wall_s: Math.round(record.wallMs / 1000),\n      },\n      artifacts: { patch_path: null, run_dir: null, transcript_ref: null },\n      provenance: {\n        captured_at: capturedAt,\n        capture: 'mint',\n        ...(gap !== undefined ? { gap } : {}),\n      },\n    },\n    `minted rollout line for run ${record.runId}`,\n  )\n}\n\n/**\n * Join RunRecords with their traces into canonical rollout lines. Records\n * without spans are emitted as labeled gap lines and reported in\n * `missingTraces`. Execution-only records without a task score are rejected\n * because a missing training label is not a zero reward.\n */\nexport async function mintRolloutRows(\n  records: RunRecord[],\n  store: TraceStore,\n  options: MintRolloutOptions = {},\n): Promise<MintRolloutResult> {\n  const scrub = options.scrub ?? ((t) => t)\n  const capturedAt = (options.now?.() ?? new Date()).toISOString()\n  const rows: MintedRolloutLine[] = []\n  const missingTraces: string[] = []\n  for (const record of records) {\n    const trajectory = await buildTrajectory(store, record.runId)\n    if (trajectory.steps.length === 0) {\n      missingTraces.push(record.runId)\n      rows.push(\n        mintLine(record, [], [], options, capturedAt, 'no trace spans recorded for this runId'),\n      )\n      continue\n    }\n    let steps = trajectory.steps.map((s) => projectStep(s.span, scrub))\n    if (options.maxSteps !== undefined && steps.length > options.maxSteps) {\n      // Keep the head and tail — the middle of a long run is the least\n      // informative for outcome attribution.\n      const head = Math.ceil(options.maxSteps / 2)\n      const tail = options.maxSteps - head\n      steps = [...steps.slice(0, head), ...steps.slice(steps.length - tail)]\n    }\n    const conversation = finalConversation(\n      trajectory.steps.map((s) => s.span),\n      scrub,\n    )\n    const gap =\n      conversation.length === 0 ? 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package/dist/multishot/golden/index.d.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { E as MultishotResult, M as MultishotTransportRequest, T as MultishotPersona, c as RunMultishotMatrixResult, f as RunMultishotOptions, k as MultishotToolDefinition, s as RunMultishotMatrixOptions } from "../../matrix-eXKRMHnL.js";
+import { E as MultishotResult, M as MultishotTransportRequest, T as MultishotPersona, c as RunMultishotMatrixResult, f as RunMultishotOptions, k as MultishotToolDefinition, s as RunMultishotMatrixOptions } from "../../matrix-BpI5Trmo.js";
 //#region src/multishot/golden/compare.d.ts
 interface CompareOptions {
   /** Stop after this many mismatches. A structural divergence high in the

package/dist/multishot/index.d.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
-import { w as JudgeScore } from "../types-D4s7Z6nq.js";
-import { A as MultishotToolExecutor, C as MultishotFatalToolError, D as MultishotShape, E as MultishotResult, F as assertMultishotShotResult, M as MultishotTransportRequest, N as MultishotTransportResponse, O as MultishotShotResultError, P as MultishotTransportToolCall, S as MultishotDriverEmptyError, T as MultishotPersona, _ as JudgeRunResult, a as MultishotCellOutput, b as runJudge, c as RunMultishotMatrixResult, d as MultishotShot, f as RunMultishotOptions, g as JudgeDimension, h as JudgeConfig, i as ConversationJudgeInput, j as MultishotTransport, k as MultishotToolDefinition, l as computeCellComposite, m as DEFAULT_JUDGE_MODEL, n as CellCompositeInput, o as MultishotJudges, p as runMultishot, r as CellCompositeScore, s as RunMultishotMatrixOptions, t as ArtifactJudgeInput, u as runMultishotMatrix, v as renderDimensions, w as MultishotMessage, x as MultishotArtifact, y as renderJsonFooter } from "../matrix-eXKRMHnL.js";
+import { w as JudgeScore } from "../types-Dy237wiH.js";
+import { A as MultishotToolExecutor, C as MultishotFatalToolError, D as MultishotShape, E as MultishotResult, F as assertMultishotShotResult, M as MultishotTransportRequest, N as MultishotTransportResponse, O as MultishotShotResultError, P as MultishotTransportToolCall, S as MultishotDriverEmptyError, T as MultishotPersona, _ as JudgeRunResult, a as MultishotCellOutput, b as runJudge, c as RunMultishotMatrixResult, d as MultishotShot, f as RunMultishotOptions, g as JudgeDimension, h as JudgeConfig, i as ConversationJudgeInput, j as MultishotTransport, k as MultishotToolDefinition, l as computeCellComposite, m as DEFAULT_JUDGE_MODEL, n as CellCompositeInput, o as MultishotJudges, p as runMultishot, r as CellCompositeScore, s as RunMultishotMatrixOptions, t as ArtifactJudgeInput, u as runMultishotMatrix, v as renderDimensions, w as MultishotMessage, x as MultishotArtifact, y as renderJsonFooter } from "../matrix-BpI5Trmo.js";
 import { AgentProfile } from "@tangle-network/agent-interface";
 //#region src/multishot/cost.d.ts
 /**

package/dist/openapi.json

@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@
   "openapi": "3.1.0",
   "info": {
     "title": "@tangle-network/agent-eval — wire protocol",
-    "version": "0.161.1",
-    "description": "HTTP and stdio RPC interface to agent-eval. The TypeScript runtime is the source of truth; this spec is the contract that cross-language clients (Python, Rust, Go) generate from.\n\nWire-protocol version: 1.0.0. Bumps on breaking changes to request/response schemas.",
+    "version": "0.170.0",
+    "description": "HTTP and stdio RPC interface to agent-eval. The TypeScript runtime is the source of truth; this spec is the contract that cross-language clients (Python, Rust, Go) generate from.\n\nWire-protocol version: 1.1.0. Bumps on breaking changes to request/response schemas.",
     "contact": {
       "name": "Tangle Network",
       "url": "https://github.com/tangle-network/agent-eval"
@@ -217,7 +217,7 @@
           },
           "rubricVersion": {
             "type": "string",
-            "description": "Stable hash of the rubric used. Scores are only comparable across runs when this matches."
+            "description": "Stable identity of the rubric used, as `<name>@sha256-rfc8785:<hex>`. Scores are only comparable across runs when this matches exactly."
           },
           "model": {
             "type": "string",
@@ -296,7 +296,7 @@
           },
           "rubricVersion": {
             "type": "string",
-            "description": "Stable hash — match this to compare scores across runs."
+            "description": "Stable identity, as `<name>@sha256-rfc8785:<hex>` — match this to compare scores across runs."
           }
         },
         "required": [

package/dist/{paired-arms-D-XRF_fy.js → paired-arms-D4aeIHUy.js}

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { s as ValidationError } from "./errors-Dngq5h35.js";
-import { i as makeRng, l as lnGamma, o as symmetricTwoSampleSeed, r as binomialSignTwoSided, s as zQuantile, t as assertFiniteSample, u as regularizedIncompleteBeta } from "./internal-BDHPCnjk.js";
-import { r as pairedBootstrap } from "./paired-tests-BHIhYVdu.js";
+import { c as lnGamma, i as makeRng, l as regularizedIncompleteBeta, o as symmetricTwoSampleSeed, r as binomialSignTwoSided, s as zQuantile, t as assertFiniteSample } from "./internal-BMFSR8Ns.js";
+import { r as pairedBootstrap } from "./paired-tests-C8iCsioC.js";
 //#region src/statistics/paired-binary.ts
 /**
 * Wilson score interval for a binomial proportion. Correct at small n and near
@@ -1042,4 +1042,4 @@ function metricValue(row, name) {
 //#endregion
 export { passAtK as _, MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES as a, mannWhitneyU as c, isBinaryOutcomeVector as d, mcnemar as f, pairedRiskDifferenceScore as g, pairedRiskDifferenceExact as h, DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS as i, wilcoxonSignedRank as l, pairedRiskDifference as m, pairArms as n, MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK as o, pairedBinaryScale as p, pairRunRecords as r, WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N as s, comparePairedArms as t, normalCdf as u, wilson as v };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=paired-arms-D-XRF_fy.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=paired-arms-D4aeIHUy.js.map