@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.133.2 → 0.133.3

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Files changed (103) hide show
  1. package/CHANGELOG.md +156 -0
  2. package/dist/{analyze-runs-BmX-h_yn.d.ts → analyze-runs-BClW9OSe.d.ts} +3 -3
  3. package/dist/{analyze-runs-BmX-h_yn.d.ts.map → analyze-runs-BClW9OSe.d.ts.map} +1 -1
  4. package/dist/{analyze-runs-B-afTpCv.js → analyze-runs-qk8op0tN.js} +63 -42
  5. package/dist/analyze-runs-qk8op0tN.js.map +1 -0
  6. package/dist/baseline-BaPxoROc.js +149 -0
  7. package/dist/baseline-BaPxoROc.js.map +1 -0
  8. package/dist/{baseline-hG3K85h4.d.ts → baseline-D_fT6277.d.ts} +43 -11
  9. package/dist/baseline-D_fT6277.d.ts.map +1 -0
  10. package/dist/benchmarks/index.d.ts +1 -1
  11. package/dist/benchmarks/index.js +1 -1
  12. package/dist/{benchmarks-CJr1H1_a.js → benchmarks-BP9sgMia.js} +3 -3
  13. package/dist/{benchmarks-CJr1H1_a.js.map → benchmarks-BP9sgMia.js.map} +1 -1
  14. package/dist/builder-eval/index.js +1 -1
  15. package/dist/campaign/index.d.ts +2 -2
  16. package/dist/campaign/index.js +2 -2
  17. package/dist/{campaign-BJjn1rhw.js → campaign--V4ffEKR.js} +12 -6
  18. package/dist/{campaign-BJjn1rhw.js.map → campaign--V4ffEKR.js.map} +1 -1
  19. package/dist/{client-COvaLoQG.d.ts → client-Du7B81wW.d.ts} +28 -14
  20. package/dist/client-Du7B81wW.d.ts.map +1 -0
  21. package/dist/{client-CYzbdJOZ.js → client-LIuo-KPv.js} +19 -7
  22. package/dist/client-LIuo-KPv.js.map +1 -0
  23. package/dist/contract/index.d.ts +3 -3
  24. package/dist/contract/index.d.ts.map +1 -1
  25. package/dist/contract/index.js +9 -8
  26. package/dist/contract/index.js.map +1 -1
  27. package/dist/{eval-campaign-DXhpZghy.js → eval-campaign-CvPcvqXC.js} +2 -2
  28. package/dist/{eval-campaign-DXhpZghy.js.map → eval-campaign-CvPcvqXC.js.map} +1 -1
  29. package/dist/hosted/index.d.ts +1 -1
  30. package/dist/hosted/index.d.ts.map +1 -1
  31. package/dist/hosted/index.js +1 -1
  32. package/dist/{index-BREtv3ZZ.d.ts → index-B5MNN1f1.d.ts} +3 -3
  33. package/dist/{index-BREtv3ZZ.d.ts.map → index-B5MNN1f1.d.ts.map} +1 -1
  34. package/dist/{index-C7Wue8R6.d.ts → index-DOqvIJ8I.d.ts} +27 -10
  35. package/dist/index-DOqvIJ8I.d.ts.map +1 -0
  36. package/dist/{index-DSC51roc.d.ts → index-DSC51roc2.d.ts} +1 -1
  37. package/dist/index-DSC51roc2.d.ts.map +1 -0
  38. package/dist/{index-nhIYz9hn.d.ts → index-DuhJaaiH.d.ts} +68 -7
  39. package/dist/index-DuhJaaiH.d.ts.map +1 -0
  40. package/dist/index.d.ts +56 -10
  41. package/dist/index.d.ts.map +1 -1
  42. package/dist/index.js +29 -20
  43. package/dist/index.js.map +1 -1
  44. package/dist/ledger-core/index.d.ts +2 -2
  45. package/dist/ledger-core/index.js +2 -2
  46. package/dist/{ledger-core-CPZfcrC2.js → ledger-core-DAKFKRzi.js} +136 -18
  47. package/dist/ledger-core-DAKFKRzi.js.map +1 -0
  48. package/dist/matrix/index.d.ts +1 -1
  49. package/dist/meta-eval/index.d.ts +1 -1
  50. package/dist/meta-eval/index.js +2 -2
  51. package/dist/multishot/index.d.ts +1 -1
  52. package/dist/openapi.json +1 -1
  53. package/dist/{paired-arms-6XItKzd1.js → paired-arms-CA_8pN01.js} +2 -2
  54. package/dist/{paired-arms-6XItKzd1.js.map → paired-arms-CA_8pN01.js.map} +1 -1
  55. package/dist/pipelines/index.d.ts +1 -1
  56. package/dist/pipelines/index.js +3 -2
  57. package/dist/pipelines/index.js.map +1 -1
  58. package/dist/{release-report-wuilQkvK.js → release-report-BVZBmRZp.js} +2 -2
  59. package/dist/{release-report-wuilQkvK.js.map → release-report-BVZBmRZp.js.map} +1 -1
  60. package/dist/{release-report-CjHWa8Ia.d.ts → release-report-DKBtegGt.d.ts} +2 -2
  61. package/dist/{release-report-CjHWa8Ia.d.ts.map → release-report-DKBtegGt.d.ts.map} +1 -1
  62. package/dist/reporting.d.ts +3 -3
  63. package/dist/reporting.js +4 -4
  64. package/dist/{researcher-CbSKhK8z.d.ts → researcher-BtD5U1Up.d.ts} +2 -2
  65. package/dist/{researcher-CbSKhK8z.d.ts.map → researcher-BtD5U1Up.d.ts.map} +1 -1
  66. package/dist/{reward-hacking-Dl2UBzej.js → reward-hacking-DCdRK9TY.js} +2 -2
  67. package/dist/{reward-hacking-Dl2UBzej.js.map → reward-hacking-DCdRK9TY.js.map} +1 -1
  68. package/dist/rl.d.ts +1 -1
  69. package/dist/rl.js +4 -4
  70. package/dist/{rubric-predictive-validity-QG7ydk0s.js → rubric-predictive-validity-D6Q6n9oq.js} +2 -2
  71. package/dist/{rubric-predictive-validity-QG7ydk0s.js.map → rubric-predictive-validity-D6Q6n9oq.js.map} +1 -1
  72. package/dist/{skillopt-optimization-method-wHF5xsUv.d.ts → skillopt-optimization-method-Dxr8pdZd.d.ts} +12 -7
  73. package/dist/{skillopt-optimization-method-wHF5xsUv.d.ts.map → skillopt-optimization-method-Dxr8pdZd.d.ts.map} +1 -1
  74. package/dist/{skillopt-optimization-method-CF6a327Q.js → skillopt-optimization-method-vvJ4bMNI.js} +119 -24
  75. package/dist/skillopt-optimization-method-vvJ4bMNI.js.map +1 -0
  76. package/dist/{statistics-DbvkkDPa.d.ts → statistics-D_4Snl-5.d.ts} +158 -30
  77. package/dist/statistics-D_4Snl-5.d.ts.map +1 -0
  78. package/dist/{statistics-DWM_AyLe.js → statistics-RwRNu2__.js} +546 -98
  79. package/dist/statistics-RwRNu2__.js.map +1 -0
  80. package/dist/{summary-report-Ci17nIdU.js → summary-report-BxtossFi.js} +3 -3
  81. package/dist/{summary-report-Ci17nIdU.js.map → summary-report-BxtossFi.js.map} +1 -1
  82. package/dist/{summary-report-CFnQgNfg.d.ts → summary-report-DyOhItws.d.ts} +3 -2
  83. package/dist/summary-report-DyOhItws.d.ts.map +1 -0
  84. package/dist/{baseline-DcX5hQDv.js → tool-use-metrics-DEGMKycK.js} +2 -114
  85. package/dist/tool-use-metrics-DEGMKycK.js.map +1 -0
  86. package/docs/design/statistics-decisions.md +271 -0
  87. package/docs/design.md +1 -0
  88. package/docs/insight-report.md +1 -1
  89. package/docs/research-report-methodology.md +4 -1
  90. package/package.json +2 -1
  91. package/dist/analyze-runs-B-afTpCv.js.map +0 -1
  92. package/dist/baseline-DcX5hQDv.js.map +0 -1
  93. package/dist/baseline-hG3K85h4.d.ts.map +0 -1
  94. package/dist/client-COvaLoQG.d.ts.map +0 -1
  95. package/dist/client-CYzbdJOZ.js.map +0 -1
  96. package/dist/index-C7Wue8R6.d.ts.map +0 -1
  97. package/dist/index-DSC51roc.d.ts.map +0 -1
  98. package/dist/index-nhIYz9hn.d.ts.map +0 -1
  99. package/dist/ledger-core-CPZfcrC2.js.map +0 -1
  100. package/dist/skillopt-optimization-method-CF6a327Q.js.map +0 -1
  101. package/dist/statistics-DWM_AyLe.js.map +0 -1
  102. package/dist/statistics-DbvkkDPa.d.ts.map +0 -1
  103. package/dist/summary-report-CFnQgNfg.d.ts.map +0 -1
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
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- import { E as pearsonR } from "./statistics-DWM_AyLe.js";
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+ import { j as pearsonR } from "./statistics-RwRNu2__.js";
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  import { n as observedScore, s as trainingScore, t as isRealnessGated } from "./reward-nw2xZGZG.js";
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  import { s as validateRunRecord } from "./run-record-BIwU2wdV.js";
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  //#region src/campaign/run-record.ts
@@ -593,4 +593,4 @@ function defaultSecondary(verifiableOpts) {
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  //#endregion
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  export { campaignCellExecutionEvidence as a, campaignCellToRunRecord as c, filterDeterministicallyRewarded as i, projectCampaignCellQuality as l, extractVerifiableReward as n, campaignCellJudgeDimensions as o, extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords as r, campaignCellTaskScore as s, detectRewardHacking as t };
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- //# sourceMappingURL=reward-hacking-Dl2UBzej.js.map
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+ //# sourceMappingURL=reward-hacking-DCdRK9TY.js.map
@@ -1 +1 @@
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- {"version":3,"file":"reward-hacking-Dl2UBzej.js","names":["mean","clamp01"],"sources":["../src/campaign/run-record.ts","../src/rl/verifiable-reward.ts","../src/rl/reward-hacking.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import type { AgentProfileCell } from '../agent-profile-cell'\nimport type {\n JudgeScoresRecord,\n RunOutcome,\n RunRecord,\n RunSplitTag,\n RunTerminalOutcome,\n} from '../run-record'\nimport { validateRunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport type { CampaignCellResult, JudgeScore } from './types'\n\nexport interface CampaignCellRunRecordOptions {\n runId: string\n experimentId: string\n candidateId: string\n model: string\n promptHash: string\n configHash: string\n commitSha: string\n splitTag: RunSplitTag\n seed?: number\n scenarioId?: string\n defaultCostUsd?: number\n agentProfile?: AgentProfileCell\n raw?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignCellQualityProjection {\n score?: number\n judgeScores?: JudgeScoresRecord\n successfulJudgeScores: Record<string, JudgeScore>\n failedJudges: string[]\n raw: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignCellExecutionEvidence {\n terminalOutcome: RunTerminalOutcome\n executionErrorCount?: number\n judgeErrorCount?: number\n unclassifiedErrorCount?: number\n terminalFailureReason?: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Project one campaign cell into the canonical run format.\n *\n * A dispatch error establishes terminal execution failure. A judge error only\n * establishes that quality measurement failed after dispatch completed.\n * Failures without a stage remain unknown. No failure becomes a zero-quality\n * label.\n */\nexport function campaignCellToRunRecord<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n options: CampaignCellRunRecordOptions,\n): RunRecord {\n const quality = projectCampaignCellQuality(cell)\n const execution = campaignCellExecutionEvidence(cell)\n const judgeErrorCount = Math.max(\n quality.raw.judge_error_count ?? 0,\n execution.judgeErrorCount ?? 0,\n )\n const cellCostCaptured = Number.isFinite(cell.costUsd) && cell.costUsd >= 0\n const costUsd = cellCostCaptured ? cell.costUsd : (options.defaultCostUsd ?? null)\n const costProvenance =\n costUsd === null\n ? ({ kind: 'uncaptured', usd: null } as const)\n : cellCostCaptured && !cell.costEstimated\n ? ({ kind: 'observed', usd: costUsd } as const)\n : ({ kind: 'estimated', usd: costUsd } as const)\n const raw: Record<string, number> = {\n ...finiteMetrics(options.raw),\n ...quality.raw,\n rep: cell.rep,\n duration_ms: cell.durationMs,\n ...(costUsd === null ? {} : { cost_usd: costUsd }),\n cost_estimated: cell.costEstimated ? 1 : 0,\n tokens_input: cell.tokenUsage.input,\n tokens_output: cell.tokenUsage.output,\n latency_ms: cell.durationMs,\n ...(execution.executionErrorCount === undefined\n ? {}\n : { execution_error_count: execution.executionErrorCount }),\n ...(judgeErrorCount > 0 ? { judge_error_count: judgeErrorCount } : {}),\n ...(execution.unclassifiedErrorCount === undefined\n ? {}\n : { unclassified_error_count: execution.unclassifiedErrorCount }),\n }\n if (typeof cell.generation === 'number') raw.generation = cell.generation\n if (cell.tokenUsage.reasoning !== undefined) {\n raw.tokens_reasoning = cell.tokenUsage.reasoning\n }\n if (cell.tokenUsage.cached !== undefined) raw.tokens_cached = cell.tokenUsage.cached\n if (cell.tokenUsage.cacheWrite !== undefined) {\n raw.tokens_cache_write = cell.tokenUsage.cacheWrite\n }\n if (costUsd !== null && costUsd > 0) {\n raw.tokens_per_dollar = (cell.tokenUsage.input + cell.tokenUsage.output) / costUsd\n }\n if (costUsd !== null && quality.score !== undefined && quality.score > 0.01) {\n raw.cost_per_quality = costUsd / quality.score\n }\n\n const outcome: RunOutcome = {\n raw,\n ...(quality.judgeScores ? { judgeScores: quality.judgeScores } : {}),\n }\n if (quality.score !== undefined) {\n if (options.splitTag === 'holdout') outcome.holdoutScore = quality.score\n else outcome.searchScore = quality.score\n }\n\n return validateRunRecord({\n runId: options.runId,\n experimentId: options.experimentId,\n candidateId: options.candidateId,\n seed: options.seed ?? cell.seed,\n model: options.model,\n promptHash: options.promptHash,\n configHash: options.configHash,\n commitSha: options.commitSha,\n wallMs: cell.durationMs,\n costUsd,\n costProvenance,\n tokenUsage: { ...cell.tokenUsage },\n terminalOutcome: execution.terminalOutcome,\n ...(execution.terminalFailureReason\n ? { terminalFailureReason: execution.terminalFailureReason }\n : {}),\n outcome,\n splitTag: options.splitTag,\n scenarioId: options.scenarioId ?? cell.scenarioId,\n ...(options.agentProfile ? { agentProfile: options.agentProfile } : {}),\n })\n}\n\nexport function campaignCellExecutionEvidence<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): CampaignCellExecutionEvidence {\n if (cell.errorStage === 'dispatch') {\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'failed',\n executionErrorCount: 1,\n ...(cell.error ? { terminalFailureReason: cell.error } : {}),\n }\n }\n if (cell.errorStage === 'judge') {\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'succeeded',\n executionErrorCount: 0,\n judgeErrorCount: 1,\n }\n }\n if (!cell.error) {\n return { terminalOutcome: 'succeeded', executionErrorCount: 0 }\n }\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'unknown',\n unclassifiedErrorCount: 1,\n }\n}\n\n/**\n * Produce the only task-quality view used by campaign aggregates and exports.\n *\n * Successful judge results remain available for diagnosis after another judge\n * fails, but a task score exists only for an error-free cell whose reported\n * judge values are all finite.\n */\nexport function projectCampaignCellQuality<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): CampaignCellQualityProjection {\n if (cell.errorStage === 'dispatch') {\n return { successfulJudgeScores: {}, failedJudges: [], raw: {} }\n }\n\n const perJudge: Record<string, Record<string, number>> = {}\n const successfulJudgeScores: Record<string, JudgeScore> = {}\n const dimensionValues = new Map<string, number[]>()\n const composites: number[] = []\n const notes: string[] = []\n const failedJudges = new Set<string>(\n cell.errorStage === 'judge' ? [cell.errorJudge ?? 'unknown-judge'] : [],\n )\n const raw: Record<string, number> = {}\n\n for (const [judgeName, score] of Object.entries(cell.judgeScores)) {\n const finiteDimensions = Object.values(score.dimensions).every(Number.isFinite)\n if (score.failed || !Number.isFinite(score.composite) || !finiteDimensions) {\n failedJudges.add(judgeName)\n continue\n }\n\n composites.push(score.composite)\n successfulJudgeScores[judgeName] = score\n const dimensions = { ...score.dimensions }\n perJudge[judgeName] = dimensions\n for (const [dimension, value] of Object.entries(dimensions)) {\n raw[`${judgeName}.${dimension}`] = value\n const values = dimensionValues.get(dimension) ?? []\n values.push(value)\n dimensionValues.set(dimension, values)\n }\n if (score.notes) notes.push(`${judgeName}: ${score.notes}`)\n for (const failedJudge of score.failedJudges ?? []) {\n failedJudges.add(`${judgeName}/${failedJudge}`)\n }\n }\n\n if (failedJudges.size > 0) raw.judge_error_count = failedJudges.size\n const sortedFailedJudges = [...failedJudges].sort()\n if (composites.length === 0) {\n return {\n successfulJudgeScores,\n failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges,\n raw,\n }\n }\n\n const composite = mean(composites)\n const perDimMean = Object.fromEntries(\n [...dimensionValues.entries()].map(([dimension, values]) => [dimension, mean(values)]),\n )\n const complete =\n cell.error === undefined && cell.errorStage === undefined && failedJudges.size === 0\n if (complete) raw.composite = composite\n\n return {\n ...(complete ? { score: composite } : {}),\n raw,\n successfulJudgeScores,\n failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges,\n judgeScores: {\n perJudge,\n perDimMean,\n composite,\n ...(sortedFailedJudges.length > 0 ? { failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges } : {}),\n ...(notes.length > 0 ? { notes: notes.join(' | ') } : {}),\n },\n }\n}\n\n/** Read the canonical task score without recomputing cell quality. */\nexport function campaignCellTaskScore<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): number | undefined {\n return projectCampaignCellQuality(cell).score\n}\n\n/** Read canonical successful judge dimensions without recomputing cell quality. */\nexport function campaignCellJudgeDimensions<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): Record<string, Record<string, number>> {\n return projectCampaignCellQuality(cell).judgeScores?.perJudge ?? {}\n}\n\nfunction finiteMetrics(metrics: Record<string, number> | undefined): Record<string, number> {\n const finite: Record<string, number> = {}\n for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(metrics ?? {})) {\n if (Number.isFinite(value)) finite[key] = value\n }\n return finite\n}\n\nfunction mean(values: number[]): number {\n return values.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / values.length\n}\n","/**\n * Verifiable reward channel.\n *\n * For RL on coding / math / theorem-proving / structured-output tasks, the\n * reward signal is *decidable* — a test passes or fails, a proof checks or\n * doesn't, an output validates against a schema or doesn't. These rewards\n * are dramatically more useful for RL training than LLM-judge scores\n * because they don't drift, can't be Goodhart-gamed by the policy in the\n * same way, and don't require a separate calibration loop.\n *\n * The `MultiLayerVerifier` already produces this signal — it just doesn't\n * surface it in a shape that's clean enough for RL training. This module\n * wraps the verifier output so consumers can:\n *\n * 1. Extract a clean `VerifiableReward` from a `VerificationReport`\n * 2. Distinguish *deterministic* rewards (compile, test, schema) from\n * *probabilistic* rewards (judge) so they can be weighted differently\n * in the RL training step\n * 3. Filter `RunRecord[]` to only those with a verifiable reward,\n * producing the clean training set that DeepSeek-R1-style GRPO and\n * AlphaProof-style search both depend on\n *\n * Why this matters: every credible 2025-2026 frontier RL result on coding\n * agents leans on verifiable reward (DeepSeek-R1 GRPO on test pass-rate,\n * o-series RL on math/code, AlphaProof on Lean kernel checking). Mixing\n * judge scores into the reward signal poisons the gradient. This module\n * is the seam.\n */\n\nimport type { LayerResult, VerificationReport } from '../multi-layer-verifier'\nimport { isRealnessGated, observedScore, trainingScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\n\nexport type VerifiableRewardSource =\n | 'compile' // typecheck / build / lint passed\n | 'test' // unit / integration test pass-rate\n | 'schema' // structured output validates\n | 'sandbox' // sandbox exec exit code\n | 'judge' // LLM judge — probabilistic, included for completeness\n | 'composite' // weighted blend across multiple of the above\n\nexport interface VerifiableReward {\n /** Scalar in [0, 1]. The RL training signal. */\n value: number\n /** What produced the reward — different sources have different determinism. */\n source: VerifiableRewardSource\n /**\n * Determinism class. `'deterministic'` rewards are repeatable byte-for-byte\n * given the same inputs (compile, test, schema validation, sandbox exit code).\n * `'probabilistic'` rewards depend on a stochastic component (LLM judge).\n * Mixing these in the same training batch without separation is a known\n * footgun in production RLHF pipelines.\n */\n determinism: 'deterministic' | 'probabilistic'\n /**\n * Confidence in the reward value. For deterministic sources this is 1.0\n * (the bit either flipped or didn't). For judge sources this is the\n * judge-reported confidence or — when missing — a calibrated prior.\n */\n confidence: number\n /** The layer / judge id that produced the signal, for provenance. */\n origin: string\n /**\n * Per-source contribution to `value`, keyed by layer/judge id. Single-source\n * rewards carry one entry (`{ [origin]: value }`); composite rewards carry\n * every contributing layer's score — the anti-scalar-collapse surface RL\n * consumers weight per-source instead of trusting one blended number.\n */\n components: Record<string, number>\n /**\n * The run carries `outcome.realness.gated` — the authenticity gate flagged\n * its success signal as faked.\n *\n * With the gate applied (the default) `value` and every `components` entry\n * are 0 on such a run; with `applyRealnessGate: false` the observed numbers\n * come back untouched and this flag is the only marker that they are not to\n * be trusted. Either way it distinguishes \"measured a genuine failure\" from\n * \"claimed a success we refuse to believe\", which a bare 0 cannot.\n */\n realnessGated?: boolean\n /**\n * Whether an authenticity screen COULD run on this reward at all — the same\n * distinction `RolloutOutcome.realness_screened` draws, for the same reason.\n *\n * `false` on every reward from `extractVerifiableReward`, because a\n * `VerificationReport` carries layer scores and nothing else: there is no\n * `outcome.realness` to consult, so no gate has run, and `realnessGated`\n * being absent there means \"unknown\", NOT \"clean\". Absent on the\n * `RunRecord` path when the record itself carries no realness verdict.\n *\n * This matters most exactly where it is easiest to miss: a report whose\n * deterministic layers all passed yields `determinism: 'deterministic'`,\n * `confidence: 1` — the highest-credibility reward this module can emit —\n * and a stubbed integration reporting green is precisely what a gamed run\n * looks like. Consumers driving training off this shape must screen the run\n * themselves; the flag is what tells them nobody has.\n */\n realnessScreened?: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions {\n /**\n * Which layers count as deterministic-reward sources. The verifier doesn't\n * tag layers as \"this is verifiable\"; the caller declares it via this list\n * (or via the layer name → source mapping). Default treats common names\n * (`install`, `typecheck`, `build`, `lint`, `test`, `compile`, `schema`,\n * `sandbox`) as deterministic.\n */\n deterministicLayers?: string[]\n /**\n * Map layer name → reward source. Defaults to a sensible string-match.\n */\n sourceFor?: (layerName: string) => VerifiableRewardSource\n /**\n * Whether to fall back to a probabilistic (judge) reward when no\n * deterministic layer produced a numeric score. Default `true`. Set to\n * `false` for \"deterministic-only\" training pipelines that should\n * discard runs without a verifiable signal.\n */\n fallbackToJudge?: boolean\n /**\n * Default confidence for probabilistic (judge) rewards when the judge\n * doesn't report one. Default `0.7`.\n */\n judgeConfidenceFloor?: number\n /**\n * Whether the anti-Goodhart realness gate applies. Default `true`, and the\n * default is the one every training path must keep.\n *\n * Set `false` ONLY for detection and analysis. `rl/reward-hacking.ts` does,\n * for the same reason it reads `observedScore` for its proxy: it measures the\n * DIVERGENCE between the judge signal and the deterministic one, and a\n * deterministic reward that another gate already forced to 0 manufactures\n * exactly that divergence on exactly the gamed population. The detector would\n * then be re-reporting a verdict it was supposed to reach independently.\n */\n applyRealnessGate?: boolean\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS = new Set([\n 'install',\n 'typecheck',\n 'build',\n 'lint',\n 'test',\n 'compile',\n 'schema',\n 'sandbox',\n 'unit_tests',\n 'integration_tests',\n])\n\nconst DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR = (name: string): VerifiableRewardSource => {\n const lower = name.toLowerCase()\n if (lower.includes('test')) return 'test'\n if (\n lower.includes('compile') ||\n lower.includes('build') ||\n lower.includes('typecheck') ||\n lower.includes('lint')\n )\n return 'compile'\n if (lower.includes('schema')) return 'schema'\n if (lower.includes('sandbox')) return 'sandbox'\n if (lower.includes('judge') || lower.includes('semantic')) return 'judge'\n return 'composite'\n}\n\n/**\n * Extract a `VerifiableReward` from a `VerificationReport`.\n *\n * Strategy: prefer the deterministic layers (in order: test → compile →\n * schema → sandbox), fall back to the judge layer if `fallbackToJudge` is\n * true, return `null` if no signal qualifies. When multiple deterministic\n * layers contribute, return a `'composite'` source with a weighted blend.\n *\n * NO realness gate is applied and none can be: a `VerificationReport` carries\n * layer scores and nothing about whether the run faked them — `realness` lives\n * on the `RunRecord`. Use `extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords` for anything\n * that becomes training data; this signature is for scoring a report in hand.\n */\nexport function extractVerifiableReward(\n report: VerificationReport,\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): VerifiableReward | null {\n const deterministicSet = new Set(opts.deterministicLayers ?? [...DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS])\n const sourceFor = opts.sourceFor ?? DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR\n const fallbackToJudge = opts.fallbackToJudge ?? true\n const judgeFloor = opts.judgeConfidenceFloor ?? 0.7\n\n const deterministic = report.layers.filter(\n (layer) => deterministicSet.has(layer.layer) && isMeasuredLayer(layer),\n )\n\n if (deterministic.length === 1) {\n const layer = deterministic[0]!\n const value = clamp01(layer.score!)\n return {\n value,\n source: sourceFor(layer.layer),\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: layer.layer,\n components: { [layer.layer]: value },\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n }\n\n if (deterministic.length > 1) {\n // Composite: weighted blend by `Layer.weight` if present, else equal.\n let num = 0\n let denom = 0\n const components: Record<string, number> = {}\n for (const l of deterministic) {\n const w = (l.detail?.weight as number | undefined) ?? 1\n num += w * (l.score ?? 0)\n denom += w\n components[l.layer] = l.score!\n }\n return {\n value: denom === 0 ? 0 : clamp01(num / denom),\n source: 'composite',\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: deterministic.map((l) => l.layer).join('+'),\n components,\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n }\n\n if (!fallbackToJudge) return null\n\n const judge =\n report.layers.find((layer) => isMeasuredLayer(layer) && sourceFor(layer.layer) === 'judge') ??\n report.layers.find(isMeasuredLayer)\n\n if (!judge) return null\n\n const confFromDetail = judge.detail?.confidence as number | undefined\n const judgeValue = clamp01(judge.score!)\n return {\n value: judgeValue,\n source: 'judge',\n determinism: 'probabilistic',\n confidence: typeof confFromDetail === 'number' ? confFromDetail : judgeFloor,\n origin: judge.layer,\n components: { [judge.layer]: judgeValue },\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n}\n\nfunction isMeasuredLayer(\n layer: LayerResult,\n): layer is LayerResult & { status: 'pass' | 'fail'; score: number } {\n return (\n (layer.status === 'pass' || layer.status === 'fail') &&\n typeof layer.score === 'number' &&\n Number.isFinite(layer.score) &&\n layer.score >= 0 &&\n layer.score <= 1\n )\n}\n\n/**\n * Extract verifiable rewards from `RunRecord[]` produced via the\n * `verificationReportToRunRecord` adapter (which encodes per-layer scores\n * in `outcome.raw['layer.<name>']`). For records that don't carry layer\n * scores, returns `null` for that record.\n *\n * This is the canonical bridge from \"campaign-shaped artifacts\" to\n * \"RL-training-ready reward signals\": every record that has a clean\n * verifiable reward becomes a training datum, every record that doesn't\n * gets filtered out (or kept with `'probabilistic'` determinism for\n * separate downstream handling).\n *\n * The realness gate applies to EVERY channel here, and to the deterministic one\n * MOST. It is tempting to reason that a decidable signal cannot be gamed, so\n * the gate is redundant on it — that reasoning is backwards. `realness.gated`\n * means the run's success signal was FAKED, and a test suite reporting green on\n * a stubbed integration is precisely what that looks like: the deterministic\n * layer is the thing that got faked. Exporting it ungated hands a trainer the\n * highest-credibility reward the module can emit (`determinism: 'deterministic'`,\n * `confidence: 1`) for the one population the gate exists to catch. Pass\n * `applyRealnessGate: false` only to look at the ungated numbers for detection.\n */\nexport function extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(\n runs: RunRecord[],\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): Array<{ runId: string; reward: VerifiableReward | null }> {\n const sourceFor = opts.sourceFor ?? DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR\n const deterministicSet = new Set(opts.deterministicLayers ?? [...DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS])\n const fallbackToJudge = opts.fallbackToJudge ?? true\n const judgeFloor = opts.judgeConfidenceFloor ?? 0.7\n const applyGate = opts.applyRealnessGate ?? true\n\n return runs.map((run) => {\n const flagged = isRealnessGated(run)\n // Present only when the record carries an actual realness verdict. Absent\n // is the honest \"unknown\"; `false` is reserved for a producer that\n // declares it HAS no screen, which is the report-shaped path above.\n const screened = run.outcome.realness === undefined ? {} : ({ realnessScreened: true } as const)\n // Zeroed with `value`, never left at the measured number: `components`\n // exists so an RL consumer can re-weight per source, and a raw layer score\n // surviving there would let that re-weighting reconstruct the very reward\n // the gate just refused. The measured layer scores stay on\n // `run.outcome.raw['layer.*']`, which is where analysis reads them.\n const gate = (value: number): number => (applyGate && flagged ? 0 : value)\n // Recover per-layer scores from outcome.raw['layer.<name>']\n const layerScores: Array<{ name: string; score: number }> = []\n for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(run.outcome.raw)) {\n if (\n k.startsWith('layer.') &&\n !k.includes('.', 6) &&\n typeof v === 'number' &&\n Number.isFinite(v)\n ) {\n layerScores.push({ name: k.slice('layer.'.length), score: v })\n }\n }\n const det = layerScores.filter((l) => deterministicSet.has(l.name))\n\n if (det.length === 1) {\n const layer = det[0]!\n const value = gate(clamp01(layer.score))\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value,\n source: sourceFor(layer.name),\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: layer.name,\n components: { [layer.name]: value },\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n }\n if (det.length > 1) {\n const value = gate(clamp01(det.reduce((s, l) => s + l.score, 0) / det.length))\n // Same clamp as the headline value: a producer writing layer.score 1.5\n // into outcome.raw must not propagate 1.5 through a component either.\n const components: Record<string, number> = Object.fromEntries(\n det.map((l) => [l.name, gate(clamp01(l.score))]),\n )\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value,\n source: 'composite',\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: det.map((l) => l.name).join('+'),\n components,\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n }\n if (!fallbackToJudge) return { runId: run.runId, reward: null }\n\n // Probabilistic fallback: the run's primary score. `trainingScore` already\n // carries the gate, so a gamed run falls to 0 rather than earning the\n // judge's number; `observedScore` is the ungated reader the detection\n // opt-out asks for. Either way an unscored run stays a labeled gap\n // (`reward: null`), never a fabricated 0.\n const primary = applyGate ? trainingScore(run) : observedScore(run)\n if (typeof primary !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(primary)) {\n return { runId: run.runId, reward: null }\n }\n const primaryValue = clamp01(primary)\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value: primaryValue,\n source: 'judge',\n determinism: 'probabilistic',\n confidence: judgeFloor,\n origin: 'run.outcome.score',\n components: { 'run.outcome.score': primaryValue },\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n })\n}\n\n/**\n * Filter `RunRecord[]` to those with deterministic verifiable rewards.\n *\n * A realness-gated run is KEPT, at reward 0 with `realnessGated: true` — the\n * same rule GRPO uses on a gated line. 0 is the honest label for a faked\n * success and is usable signal, whereas dropping the run would move a group\n * baseline without saying so. (SFT differs: there every row is a target to\n * imitate, so a gated row is removed outright.)\n */\nexport function filterDeterministicallyRewarded(\n runs: RunRecord[],\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): Array<{ run: RunRecord; reward: VerifiableReward }> {\n const rewarded = extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(runs, { ...opts, fallbackToJudge: false })\n const out: Array<{ run: RunRecord; reward: VerifiableReward }> = []\n for (let i = 0; i < runs.length; i++) {\n const r = rewarded[i]!\n if (r.reward && r.reward.determinism === 'deterministic') {\n out.push({ run: runs[i]!, reward: r.reward })\n }\n }\n return out\n}\n\nfunction clamp01(x: number): number {\n if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n","/**\n * Reward hacking / Goodhart detection.\n *\n * Goodhart's Law says: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be\n * a good measure. In RLHF and agentic-RL settings this is the dominant\n * failure mode — the policy learns to produce outputs that score well on\n * the proxy reward (judge, rubric, test pass-rate) without producing\n * the underlying capability the proxy was meant to track.\n *\n * Krakovna et al. (2020, \"Specification Gaming Examples in AI\") and the\n * subsequent RLHF reward-hacking literature (Skalse et al. 2022, Kim et al.\n * 2023) converge on a few diagnostic signatures:\n *\n * 1. **Reward divergence:** the proxy reward grows while the held-out\n * ground-truth signal stagnates or drops. Predictive validity over\n * time captures this.\n * 2. **Distributional shift in outputs:** after RL, the policy produces\n * outputs that no longer match the reference distribution — usually\n * because it found a high-reward attractor that's degenerate (e.g.\n * one-token responses, repetition, formatting tricks).\n * 3. **Disagreement between independent rewards:** if you train on\n * reward A and a held-out independent reward B drops sharply, you're\n * probably hacking A.\n * 4. **Calibration drift:** the verifiable / deterministic component of\n * the reward is stable; the probabilistic / judge component drifts up\n * while the deterministic component doesn't. The judge is being\n * gamed.\n *\n * This module ships explicit detectors for all four signatures, plus a\n * combined verdict. The output is diagnostic — actionable signals,\n * not autoreject — because each signature has known false positives\n * (e.g., a policy that genuinely improves can show distributional shift).\n *\n * Differs from `rubricPredictiveValidity` (which is a *standing* check on\n * whether rubrics correlate with deployment outcomes) — this is a\n * *temporal* check on whether the reward-vs-truth gap is *widening over\n * time during a training run*.\n */\n\nimport { observedScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { pearsonR } from '../statistics'\nimport {\n filterDeterministicallyRewarded,\n type VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions,\n} from './verifiable-reward'\n\nexport type RewardHackingSignal =\n | 'reward_divergence'\n | 'distribution_shift'\n | 'reward_disagreement'\n | 'judge_drift'\n\nexport interface RewardHackingFinding {\n signal: RewardHackingSignal\n /** Severity in [0, 1]. >0.5 = strong signal. */\n severity: number\n message: string\n /** Numeric evidence the consumer can render. */\n detail: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface RewardHackingReport {\n findings: RewardHackingFinding[]\n /** Signals with enough usable observations to produce a finding. */\n evaluatedSignals: RewardHackingSignal[]\n /**\n * Composite verdict. `'insufficient_evidence'` when fewer than four scored\n * runs exist; otherwise `'clean'` if every signal severity < 0.3,\n * `'suspect'` if at least one ≥ 0.3 but none ≥ 0.6, and `'gaming'` if any ≥ 0.6.\n */\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence' | 'clean' | 'suspect' | 'gaming'\n /** Rationale for the verdict, ready to paste into an audit log. */\n rationale: string[]\n /** Number of runs with a usable proxy reward. */\n n: number\n}\n\nexport interface DetectRewardHackingInput {\n /**\n * Run records ordered by recency (oldest first). The detector segments\n * them into prefix/suffix windows to compute \"did the gap widen.\"\n */\n runs: RunRecord[]\n /**\n * The metric the policy was trained to optimize. Should be present on\n * `outcome.raw` or `outcome.holdoutScore`. Default reads `outcome.holdoutScore`.\n */\n proxyOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number | null\n /**\n * The held-out ground-truth metric. For RL on coding, this is typically\n * test pass-rate. For RLHF, it's downstream task performance or human\n * preference. For knowledge tasks, it's an independently-graded score.\n */\n truthOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number | null\n /**\n * Independent secondary reward. Used for the `reward_disagreement`\n * signal. Default uses the verifiable reward extractor (deterministic\n * sources only).\n */\n secondaryRewardOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number | null\n /**\n * Window size — how many of the most recent runs count as the \"after\"\n * cohort. Default min(50, half the runs).\n */\n windowSize?: number\n /**\n * Severity threshold to flag a signal. Default 0.3 (suspect) and 0.6\n * (gaming).\n */\n thresholds?: { suspect?: number; gaming?: number }\n /**\n * Verifiable-reward options used for the secondary-reward fallback.\n */\n verifiableRewardOptions?: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_PROXY = (r: RunRecord): number | null => {\n // DELIBERATELY UNGATED. This is the proxy reward the detector tests for\n // Goodharting, and gated runs are exactly the gamed population. Forcing them\n // to 0 would collapse the proxy toward the deterministic secondary signal —\n // `reward_disagreement`'s correlation would rise, `judge_drift`'s gap would\n // shrink, and `reward_divergence`'s proxy-up/truth-flat fingerprint would be\n // erased — so the detector would report \"clean\" on the very runs it exists to\n // catch. `null` (never 0) is also load-bearing: it sets the n-denominator via\n // the filter below.\n const v = observedScore(r)\n return typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : null\n}\n\nexport function detectRewardHacking(input: DetectRewardHackingInput): RewardHackingReport {\n const proxyOf = input.proxyOf ?? DEFAULT_PROXY\n const truthOf = input.truthOf\n const sus = input.thresholds?.suspect ?? 0.3\n const gam = input.thresholds?.gaming ?? 0.6\n\n const runs = input.runs.filter((run) => finiteNumber(proxyOf(run)))\n const n = runs.length\n if (n < 4) {\n return {\n findings: [],\n evaluatedSignals: [],\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence',\n n,\n rationale: [`fewer than 4 runs with proxy reward (n=${n}); insufficient evidence`],\n }\n }\n const windowSize = Math.max(1, input.windowSize ?? Math.min(50, Math.floor(n / 2)))\n const before = runs.slice(0, n - windowSize)\n const after = runs.slice(n - windowSize)\n\n const findings: RewardHackingFinding[] = []\n\n // ── Signal 1: reward divergence (proxy ↑ while truth flat or ↓) ──────\n if (truthOf) {\n const beforeProxy = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterProxy = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const beforeTruth = before.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterTruth = after.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n if (\n beforeProxy.length >= 2 &&\n afterProxy.length >= 2 &&\n beforeTruth.length >= 2 &&\n afterTruth.length >= 2\n ) {\n const proxyDelta = mean(afterProxy) - mean(beforeProxy)\n const truthDelta = mean(afterTruth) - mean(beforeTruth)\n // Divergence: proxy goes up while truth goes flat or down.\n // Severity = max(0, (proxyDelta - truthDelta)) — bigger gap = bigger signal.\n const gap = Math.max(0, proxyDelta - truthDelta)\n const severity = clamp01(gap * 5) // scale: 0.2 absolute gap → severity 1.0\n findings.push({\n signal: 'reward_divergence',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `proxy reward rose by ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)} while truth changed by ${truthDelta.toFixed(3)} — potential Goodhart`\n : `proxy and truth moved together (proxy ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)}, truth ${truthDelta.toFixed(3)})`,\n detail: {\n proxyDelta,\n truthDelta,\n gap,\n beforeN: beforeProxy.length,\n afterN: afterProxy.length,\n },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 2: distributional shift in outputs (KS on score distributions) ──\n {\n const beforeP = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterP = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n if (beforeP.length >= 4 && afterP.length >= 4) {\n const ks = ksStatistic(beforeP, afterP)\n // KS statistic: bigger = more shift. We're agnostic about direction;\n // genuine improvement ALSO produces shift, so this signal is\n // contributory rather than load-bearing.\n const severity = clamp01(ks - 0.2)\n findings.push({\n signal: 'distribution_shift',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `KS=${ks.toFixed(3)} between before/after windows — distributional shift large`\n : `KS=${ks.toFixed(3)} between before/after windows — within-distribution drift`,\n detail: { ks, beforeN: beforeP.length, afterN: afterP.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 3: reward disagreement (proxy vs independent secondary) ────\n {\n const secondaryOf = input.secondaryRewardOf ?? defaultSecondary(input.verifiableRewardOptions)\n const aligned = runs\n .map((r) => ({ p: proxyOf(r), s: secondaryOf(r) }))\n .filter((x): x is { p: number; s: number } => finiteNumber(x.p) && finiteNumber(x.s))\n if (aligned.length >= 4) {\n const ps = aligned.map((x) => x.p)\n const ss = aligned.map((x) => x.s)\n const r = pearsonR(ps, ss)\n // Disagreement: low or negative correlation between primary proxy\n // reward and an independent secondary signal.\n const severity = clamp01(0.5 - Math.max(0, r))\n findings.push({\n signal: 'reward_disagreement',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `proxy and independent secondary reward correlate ρ=${r.toFixed(3)} — possibly hacking proxy`\n : `proxy and secondary reward correlate ρ=${r.toFixed(3)}`,\n detail: { pearson: r, n: aligned.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 4: judge drift (probabilistic up while deterministic flat) ─\n {\n // Ungated on purpose, exactly like `DEFAULT_PROXY` above. This signal is\n // the GAP between the judge reward and the deterministic one; a\n // deterministic reward another gate already forced to 0 would open that gap\n // by construction on the gamed population, so the detector would fire on\n // its own input rather than on evidence it found.\n const detRuns = filterDeterministicallyRewarded(runs, {\n ...(input.verifiableRewardOptions ?? {}),\n applyRealnessGate: false,\n })\n if (detRuns.length >= 4) {\n const detBefore = detRuns.slice(0, Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2))\n const detAfter = detRuns.slice(Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2))\n const detDelta =\n mean(detAfter.map((r) => r.reward.value)) - mean(detBefore.map((r) => r.reward.value))\n const proxyDelta =\n mean(after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)) -\n mean(before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber))\n const driftGap = Math.max(0, proxyDelta - detDelta)\n const severity = clamp01(driftGap * 5)\n findings.push({\n signal: 'judge_drift',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `judge proxy +${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)} while deterministic reward +${detDelta.toFixed(3)} — judge drifting up without verifiable backing`\n : `judge and deterministic rewards move in step (judge ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)}, det ${detDelta.toFixed(3)})`,\n detail: { proxyDelta, detDelta, driftGap, n: detRuns.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n const maxSev = findings.reduce((m, f) => Math.max(m, f.severity), 0)\n if (findings.length === 0) {\n return {\n findings,\n evaluatedSignals: [],\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence',\n rationale: [`no reward-hacking signal had enough paired evidence (n=${n})`],\n n,\n }\n }\n const verdict: RewardHackingReport['verdict'] =\n maxSev >= gam ? 'gaming' : maxSev >= sus ? 'suspect' : 'clean'\n const rationale = findings\n .filter((f) => f.severity >= sus)\n .map((f) => `${f.signal}: severity ${f.severity.toFixed(2)} — ${f.message}`)\n if (rationale.length === 0) rationale.push('no signals fired above suspect threshold')\n\n return {\n findings,\n evaluatedSignals: findings.map((finding) => finding.signal),\n verdict,\n rationale,\n n,\n }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction finiteNumber(value: number | null): value is number {\n return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\nfunction clamp01(x: number): number {\n if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n\nfunction ksStatistic(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n // Two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.\n const sortedA = [...a].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n const sortedB = [...b].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n const all = [...new Set([...sortedA, ...sortedB])].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n let max = 0\n for (const v of all) {\n const fa = sortedA.filter((x) => x <= v).length / sortedA.length\n const fb = sortedB.filter((x) => x <= v).length / sortedB.length\n max = Math.max(max, Math.abs(fa - fb))\n }\n return max\n}\n\nfunction defaultSecondary(\n verifiableOpts?: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions,\n): (run: RunRecord) => number | null {\n return (run: RunRecord) => {\n // Ungated for the same reason as signal 4: this is the INDEPENDENT\n // secondary reward whose correlation with the proxy is the evidence.\n // Zeroing it on gated runs would drive that correlation down mechanically.\n const filtered = filterDeterministicallyRewarded([run], {\n ...(verifiableOpts ?? {}),\n applyRealnessGate: false,\n })\n return filtered.length === 1 ? filtered[0]!.reward.value : null\n 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+ {"version":3,"file":"reward-hacking-DCdRK9TY.js","names":["mean","clamp01"],"sources":["../src/campaign/run-record.ts","../src/rl/verifiable-reward.ts","../src/rl/reward-hacking.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import type { AgentProfileCell } from '../agent-profile-cell'\nimport type {\n JudgeScoresRecord,\n RunOutcome,\n RunRecord,\n RunSplitTag,\n RunTerminalOutcome,\n} from '../run-record'\nimport { validateRunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport type { CampaignCellResult, JudgeScore } from './types'\n\nexport interface CampaignCellRunRecordOptions {\n runId: string\n experimentId: string\n candidateId: string\n model: string\n promptHash: string\n configHash: string\n commitSha: string\n splitTag: RunSplitTag\n seed?: number\n scenarioId?: string\n defaultCostUsd?: number\n agentProfile?: AgentProfileCell\n raw?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignCellQualityProjection {\n score?: number\n judgeScores?: JudgeScoresRecord\n successfulJudgeScores: Record<string, JudgeScore>\n failedJudges: string[]\n raw: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignCellExecutionEvidence {\n terminalOutcome: RunTerminalOutcome\n executionErrorCount?: number\n judgeErrorCount?: number\n unclassifiedErrorCount?: number\n terminalFailureReason?: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Project one campaign cell into the canonical run format.\n *\n * A dispatch error establishes terminal execution failure. A judge error only\n * establishes that quality measurement failed after dispatch completed.\n * Failures without a stage remain unknown. No failure becomes a zero-quality\n * label.\n */\nexport function campaignCellToRunRecord<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n options: CampaignCellRunRecordOptions,\n): RunRecord {\n const quality = projectCampaignCellQuality(cell)\n const execution = campaignCellExecutionEvidence(cell)\n const judgeErrorCount = Math.max(\n quality.raw.judge_error_count ?? 0,\n execution.judgeErrorCount ?? 0,\n )\n const cellCostCaptured = Number.isFinite(cell.costUsd) && cell.costUsd >= 0\n const costUsd = cellCostCaptured ? cell.costUsd : (options.defaultCostUsd ?? null)\n const costProvenance =\n costUsd === null\n ? ({ kind: 'uncaptured', usd: null } as const)\n : cellCostCaptured && !cell.costEstimated\n ? ({ kind: 'observed', usd: costUsd } as const)\n : ({ kind: 'estimated', usd: costUsd } as const)\n const raw: Record<string, number> = {\n ...finiteMetrics(options.raw),\n ...quality.raw,\n rep: cell.rep,\n duration_ms: cell.durationMs,\n ...(costUsd === null ? {} : { cost_usd: costUsd }),\n cost_estimated: cell.costEstimated ? 1 : 0,\n tokens_input: cell.tokenUsage.input,\n tokens_output: cell.tokenUsage.output,\n latency_ms: cell.durationMs,\n ...(execution.executionErrorCount === undefined\n ? {}\n : { execution_error_count: execution.executionErrorCount }),\n ...(judgeErrorCount > 0 ? { judge_error_count: judgeErrorCount } : {}),\n ...(execution.unclassifiedErrorCount === undefined\n ? {}\n : { unclassified_error_count: execution.unclassifiedErrorCount }),\n }\n if (typeof cell.generation === 'number') raw.generation = cell.generation\n if (cell.tokenUsage.reasoning !== undefined) {\n raw.tokens_reasoning = cell.tokenUsage.reasoning\n }\n if (cell.tokenUsage.cached !== undefined) raw.tokens_cached = cell.tokenUsage.cached\n if (cell.tokenUsage.cacheWrite !== undefined) {\n raw.tokens_cache_write = cell.tokenUsage.cacheWrite\n }\n if (costUsd !== null && costUsd > 0) {\n raw.tokens_per_dollar = (cell.tokenUsage.input + cell.tokenUsage.output) / costUsd\n }\n if (costUsd !== null && quality.score !== undefined && quality.score > 0.01) {\n raw.cost_per_quality = costUsd / quality.score\n }\n\n const outcome: RunOutcome = {\n raw,\n ...(quality.judgeScores ? { judgeScores: quality.judgeScores } : {}),\n }\n if (quality.score !== undefined) {\n if (options.splitTag === 'holdout') outcome.holdoutScore = quality.score\n else outcome.searchScore = quality.score\n }\n\n return validateRunRecord({\n runId: options.runId,\n experimentId: options.experimentId,\n candidateId: options.candidateId,\n seed: options.seed ?? cell.seed,\n model: options.model,\n promptHash: options.promptHash,\n configHash: options.configHash,\n commitSha: options.commitSha,\n wallMs: cell.durationMs,\n costUsd,\n costProvenance,\n tokenUsage: { ...cell.tokenUsage },\n terminalOutcome: execution.terminalOutcome,\n ...(execution.terminalFailureReason\n ? { terminalFailureReason: execution.terminalFailureReason }\n : {}),\n outcome,\n splitTag: options.splitTag,\n scenarioId: options.scenarioId ?? cell.scenarioId,\n ...(options.agentProfile ? { agentProfile: options.agentProfile } : {}),\n })\n}\n\nexport function campaignCellExecutionEvidence<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): CampaignCellExecutionEvidence {\n if (cell.errorStage === 'dispatch') {\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'failed',\n executionErrorCount: 1,\n ...(cell.error ? { terminalFailureReason: cell.error } : {}),\n }\n }\n if (cell.errorStage === 'judge') {\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'succeeded',\n executionErrorCount: 0,\n judgeErrorCount: 1,\n }\n }\n if (!cell.error) {\n return { terminalOutcome: 'succeeded', executionErrorCount: 0 }\n }\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'unknown',\n unclassifiedErrorCount: 1,\n }\n}\n\n/**\n * Produce the only task-quality view used by campaign aggregates and exports.\n *\n * Successful judge results remain available for diagnosis after another judge\n * fails, but a task score exists only for an error-free cell whose reported\n * judge values are all finite.\n */\nexport function projectCampaignCellQuality<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): CampaignCellQualityProjection {\n if (cell.errorStage === 'dispatch') {\n return { successfulJudgeScores: {}, failedJudges: [], raw: {} }\n }\n\n const perJudge: Record<string, Record<string, number>> = {}\n const successfulJudgeScores: Record<string, JudgeScore> = {}\n const dimensionValues = new Map<string, number[]>()\n const composites: number[] = []\n const notes: string[] = []\n const failedJudges = new Set<string>(\n cell.errorStage === 'judge' ? [cell.errorJudge ?? 'unknown-judge'] : [],\n )\n const raw: Record<string, number> = {}\n\n for (const [judgeName, score] of Object.entries(cell.judgeScores)) {\n const finiteDimensions = Object.values(score.dimensions).every(Number.isFinite)\n if (score.failed || !Number.isFinite(score.composite) || !finiteDimensions) {\n failedJudges.add(judgeName)\n continue\n }\n\n composites.push(score.composite)\n successfulJudgeScores[judgeName] = score\n const dimensions = { ...score.dimensions }\n perJudge[judgeName] = dimensions\n for (const [dimension, value] of Object.entries(dimensions)) {\n raw[`${judgeName}.${dimension}`] = value\n const values = dimensionValues.get(dimension) ?? []\n values.push(value)\n dimensionValues.set(dimension, values)\n }\n if (score.notes) notes.push(`${judgeName}: ${score.notes}`)\n for (const failedJudge of score.failedJudges ?? []) {\n failedJudges.add(`${judgeName}/${failedJudge}`)\n }\n }\n\n if (failedJudges.size > 0) raw.judge_error_count = failedJudges.size\n const sortedFailedJudges = [...failedJudges].sort()\n if (composites.length === 0) {\n return {\n successfulJudgeScores,\n failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges,\n raw,\n }\n }\n\n const composite = mean(composites)\n const perDimMean = Object.fromEntries(\n [...dimensionValues.entries()].map(([dimension, values]) => [dimension, mean(values)]),\n )\n const complete =\n cell.error === undefined && cell.errorStage === undefined && failedJudges.size === 0\n if (complete) raw.composite = composite\n\n return {\n ...(complete ? { score: composite } : {}),\n raw,\n successfulJudgeScores,\n failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges,\n judgeScores: {\n perJudge,\n perDimMean,\n composite,\n ...(sortedFailedJudges.length > 0 ? { failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges } : {}),\n ...(notes.length > 0 ? { notes: notes.join(' | ') } : {}),\n },\n }\n}\n\n/** Read the canonical task score without recomputing cell quality. */\nexport function campaignCellTaskScore<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): number | undefined {\n return projectCampaignCellQuality(cell).score\n}\n\n/** Read canonical successful judge dimensions without recomputing cell quality. */\nexport function campaignCellJudgeDimensions<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): Record<string, Record<string, number>> {\n return projectCampaignCellQuality(cell).judgeScores?.perJudge ?? {}\n}\n\nfunction finiteMetrics(metrics: Record<string, number> | undefined): Record<string, number> {\n const finite: Record<string, number> = {}\n for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(metrics ?? {})) {\n if (Number.isFinite(value)) finite[key] = value\n }\n return finite\n}\n\nfunction mean(values: number[]): number {\n return values.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / values.length\n}\n","/**\n * Verifiable reward channel.\n *\n * For RL on coding / math / theorem-proving / structured-output tasks, the\n * reward signal is *decidable* — a test passes or fails, a proof checks or\n * doesn't, an output validates against a schema or doesn't. These rewards\n * are dramatically more useful for RL training than LLM-judge scores\n * because they don't drift, can't be Goodhart-gamed by the policy in the\n * same way, and don't require a separate calibration loop.\n *\n * The `MultiLayerVerifier` already produces this signal — it just doesn't\n * surface it in a shape that's clean enough for RL training. This module\n * wraps the verifier output so consumers can:\n *\n * 1. Extract a clean `VerifiableReward` from a `VerificationReport`\n * 2. Distinguish *deterministic* rewards (compile, test, schema) from\n * *probabilistic* rewards (judge) so they can be weighted differently\n * in the RL training step\n * 3. Filter `RunRecord[]` to only those with a verifiable reward,\n * producing the clean training set that DeepSeek-R1-style GRPO and\n * AlphaProof-style search both depend on\n *\n * Why this matters: every credible 2025-2026 frontier RL result on coding\n * agents leans on verifiable reward (DeepSeek-R1 GRPO on test pass-rate,\n * o-series RL on math/code, AlphaProof on Lean kernel checking). Mixing\n * judge scores into the reward signal poisons the gradient. This module\n * is the seam.\n */\n\nimport type { LayerResult, VerificationReport } from '../multi-layer-verifier'\nimport { isRealnessGated, observedScore, trainingScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\n\nexport type VerifiableRewardSource =\n | 'compile' // typecheck / build / lint passed\n | 'test' // unit / integration test pass-rate\n | 'schema' // structured output validates\n | 'sandbox' // sandbox exec exit code\n | 'judge' // LLM judge — probabilistic, included for completeness\n | 'composite' // weighted blend across multiple of the above\n\nexport interface VerifiableReward {\n /** Scalar in [0, 1]. The RL training signal. */\n value: number\n /** What produced the reward — different sources have different determinism. */\n source: VerifiableRewardSource\n /**\n * Determinism class. `'deterministic'` rewards are repeatable byte-for-byte\n * given the same inputs (compile, test, schema validation, sandbox exit code).\n * `'probabilistic'` rewards depend on a stochastic component (LLM judge).\n * Mixing these in the same training batch without separation is a known\n * footgun in production RLHF pipelines.\n */\n determinism: 'deterministic' | 'probabilistic'\n /**\n * Confidence in the reward value. For deterministic sources this is 1.0\n * (the bit either flipped or didn't). For judge sources this is the\n * judge-reported confidence or — when missing — a calibrated prior.\n */\n confidence: number\n /** The layer / judge id that produced the signal, for provenance. */\n origin: string\n /**\n * Per-source contribution to `value`, keyed by layer/judge id. Single-source\n * rewards carry one entry (`{ [origin]: value }`); composite rewards carry\n * every contributing layer's score — the anti-scalar-collapse surface RL\n * consumers weight per-source instead of trusting one blended number.\n */\n components: Record<string, number>\n /**\n * The run carries `outcome.realness.gated` — the authenticity gate flagged\n * its success signal as faked.\n *\n * With the gate applied (the default) `value` and every `components` entry\n * are 0 on such a run; with `applyRealnessGate: false` the observed numbers\n * come back untouched and this flag is the only marker that they are not to\n * be trusted. Either way it distinguishes \"measured a genuine failure\" from\n * \"claimed a success we refuse to believe\", which a bare 0 cannot.\n */\n realnessGated?: boolean\n /**\n * Whether an authenticity screen COULD run on this reward at all — the same\n * distinction `RolloutOutcome.realness_screened` draws, for the same reason.\n *\n * `false` on every reward from `extractVerifiableReward`, because a\n * `VerificationReport` carries layer scores and nothing else: there is no\n * `outcome.realness` to consult, so no gate has run, and `realnessGated`\n * being absent there means \"unknown\", NOT \"clean\". Absent on the\n * `RunRecord` path when the record itself carries no realness verdict.\n *\n * This matters most exactly where it is easiest to miss: a report whose\n * deterministic layers all passed yields `determinism: 'deterministic'`,\n * `confidence: 1` — the highest-credibility reward this module can emit —\n * and a stubbed integration reporting green is precisely what a gamed run\n * looks like. Consumers driving training off this shape must screen the run\n * themselves; the flag is what tells them nobody has.\n */\n realnessScreened?: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions {\n /**\n * Which layers count as deterministic-reward sources. The verifier doesn't\n * tag layers as \"this is verifiable\"; the caller declares it via this list\n * (or via the layer name → source mapping). Default treats common names\n * (`install`, `typecheck`, `build`, `lint`, `test`, `compile`, `schema`,\n * `sandbox`) as deterministic.\n */\n deterministicLayers?: string[]\n /**\n * Map layer name → reward source. Defaults to a sensible string-match.\n */\n sourceFor?: (layerName: string) => VerifiableRewardSource\n /**\n * Whether to fall back to a probabilistic (judge) reward when no\n * deterministic layer produced a numeric score. Default `true`. Set to\n * `false` for \"deterministic-only\" training pipelines that should\n * discard runs without a verifiable signal.\n */\n fallbackToJudge?: boolean\n /**\n * Default confidence for probabilistic (judge) rewards when the judge\n * doesn't report one. Default `0.7`.\n */\n judgeConfidenceFloor?: number\n /**\n * Whether the anti-Goodhart realness gate applies. Default `true`, and the\n * default is the one every training path must keep.\n *\n * Set `false` ONLY for detection and analysis. `rl/reward-hacking.ts` does,\n * for the same reason it reads `observedScore` for its proxy: it measures the\n * DIVERGENCE between the judge signal and the deterministic one, and a\n * deterministic reward that another gate already forced to 0 manufactures\n * exactly that divergence on exactly the gamed population. The detector would\n * then be re-reporting a verdict it was supposed to reach independently.\n */\n applyRealnessGate?: boolean\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS = new Set([\n 'install',\n 'typecheck',\n 'build',\n 'lint',\n 'test',\n 'compile',\n 'schema',\n 'sandbox',\n 'unit_tests',\n 'integration_tests',\n])\n\nconst DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR = (name: string): VerifiableRewardSource => {\n const lower = name.toLowerCase()\n if (lower.includes('test')) return 'test'\n if (\n lower.includes('compile') ||\n lower.includes('build') ||\n lower.includes('typecheck') ||\n lower.includes('lint')\n )\n return 'compile'\n if (lower.includes('schema')) return 'schema'\n if (lower.includes('sandbox')) return 'sandbox'\n if (lower.includes('judge') || lower.includes('semantic')) return 'judge'\n return 'composite'\n}\n\n/**\n * Extract a `VerifiableReward` from a `VerificationReport`.\n *\n * Strategy: prefer the deterministic layers (in order: test → compile →\n * schema → sandbox), fall back to the judge layer if `fallbackToJudge` is\n * true, return `null` if no signal qualifies. When multiple deterministic\n * layers contribute, return a `'composite'` source with a weighted blend.\n *\n * NO realness gate is applied and none can be: a `VerificationReport` carries\n * layer scores and nothing about whether the run faked them — `realness` lives\n * on the `RunRecord`. Use `extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords` for anything\n * that becomes training data; this signature is for scoring a report in hand.\n */\nexport function extractVerifiableReward(\n report: VerificationReport,\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): VerifiableReward | null {\n const deterministicSet = new Set(opts.deterministicLayers ?? [...DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS])\n const sourceFor = opts.sourceFor ?? DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR\n const fallbackToJudge = opts.fallbackToJudge ?? true\n const judgeFloor = opts.judgeConfidenceFloor ?? 0.7\n\n const deterministic = report.layers.filter(\n (layer) => deterministicSet.has(layer.layer) && isMeasuredLayer(layer),\n )\n\n if (deterministic.length === 1) {\n const layer = deterministic[0]!\n const value = clamp01(layer.score!)\n return {\n value,\n source: sourceFor(layer.layer),\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: layer.layer,\n components: { [layer.layer]: value },\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n }\n\n if (deterministic.length > 1) {\n // Composite: weighted blend by `Layer.weight` if present, else equal.\n let num = 0\n let denom = 0\n const components: Record<string, number> = {}\n for (const l of deterministic) {\n const w = (l.detail?.weight as number | undefined) ?? 1\n num += w * (l.score ?? 0)\n denom += w\n components[l.layer] = l.score!\n }\n return {\n value: denom === 0 ? 0 : clamp01(num / denom),\n source: 'composite',\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: deterministic.map((l) => l.layer).join('+'),\n components,\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n }\n\n if (!fallbackToJudge) return null\n\n const judge =\n report.layers.find((layer) => isMeasuredLayer(layer) && sourceFor(layer.layer) === 'judge') ??\n report.layers.find(isMeasuredLayer)\n\n if (!judge) return null\n\n const confFromDetail = judge.detail?.confidence as number | undefined\n const judgeValue = clamp01(judge.score!)\n return {\n value: judgeValue,\n source: 'judge',\n determinism: 'probabilistic',\n confidence: typeof confFromDetail === 'number' ? confFromDetail : judgeFloor,\n origin: judge.layer,\n components: { [judge.layer]: judgeValue },\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n}\n\nfunction isMeasuredLayer(\n layer: LayerResult,\n): layer is LayerResult & { status: 'pass' | 'fail'; score: number } {\n return (\n (layer.status === 'pass' || layer.status === 'fail') &&\n typeof layer.score === 'number' &&\n Number.isFinite(layer.score) &&\n layer.score >= 0 &&\n layer.score <= 1\n )\n}\n\n/**\n * Extract verifiable rewards from `RunRecord[]` produced via the\n * `verificationReportToRunRecord` adapter (which encodes per-layer scores\n * in `outcome.raw['layer.<name>']`). For records that don't carry layer\n * scores, returns `null` for that record.\n *\n * This is the canonical bridge from \"campaign-shaped artifacts\" to\n * \"RL-training-ready reward signals\": every record that has a clean\n * verifiable reward becomes a training datum, every record that doesn't\n * gets filtered out (or kept with `'probabilistic'` determinism for\n * separate downstream handling).\n *\n * The realness gate applies to EVERY channel here, and to the deterministic one\n * MOST. It is tempting to reason that a decidable signal cannot be gamed, so\n * the gate is redundant on it — that reasoning is backwards. `realness.gated`\n * means the run's success signal was FAKED, and a test suite reporting green on\n * a stubbed integration is precisely what that looks like: the deterministic\n * layer is the thing that got faked. Exporting it ungated hands a trainer the\n * highest-credibility reward the module can emit (`determinism: 'deterministic'`,\n * `confidence: 1`) for the one population the gate exists to catch. Pass\n * `applyRealnessGate: false` only to look at the ungated numbers for detection.\n */\nexport function extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(\n runs: RunRecord[],\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): Array<{ runId: string; reward: VerifiableReward | null }> {\n const sourceFor = opts.sourceFor ?? DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR\n const deterministicSet = new Set(opts.deterministicLayers ?? [...DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS])\n const fallbackToJudge = opts.fallbackToJudge ?? true\n const judgeFloor = opts.judgeConfidenceFloor ?? 0.7\n const applyGate = opts.applyRealnessGate ?? true\n\n return runs.map((run) => {\n const flagged = isRealnessGated(run)\n // Present only when the record carries an actual realness verdict. Absent\n // is the honest \"unknown\"; `false` is reserved for a producer that\n // declares it HAS no screen, which is the report-shaped path above.\n const screened = run.outcome.realness === undefined ? {} : ({ realnessScreened: true } as const)\n // Zeroed with `value`, never left at the measured number: `components`\n // exists so an RL consumer can re-weight per source, and a raw layer score\n // surviving there would let that re-weighting reconstruct the very reward\n // the gate just refused. The measured layer scores stay on\n // `run.outcome.raw['layer.*']`, which is where analysis reads them.\n const gate = (value: number): number => (applyGate && flagged ? 0 : value)\n // Recover per-layer scores from outcome.raw['layer.<name>']\n const layerScores: Array<{ name: string; score: number }> = []\n for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(run.outcome.raw)) {\n if (\n k.startsWith('layer.') &&\n !k.includes('.', 6) &&\n typeof v === 'number' &&\n Number.isFinite(v)\n ) {\n layerScores.push({ name: k.slice('layer.'.length), score: v })\n }\n }\n const det = layerScores.filter((l) => deterministicSet.has(l.name))\n\n if (det.length === 1) {\n const layer = det[0]!\n const value = gate(clamp01(layer.score))\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value,\n source: sourceFor(layer.name),\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: layer.name,\n components: { [layer.name]: value },\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n }\n if (det.length > 1) {\n const value = gate(clamp01(det.reduce((s, l) => s + l.score, 0) / det.length))\n // Same clamp as the headline value: a producer writing layer.score 1.5\n // into outcome.raw must not propagate 1.5 through a component either.\n const components: Record<string, number> = Object.fromEntries(\n det.map((l) => [l.name, gate(clamp01(l.score))]),\n )\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value,\n source: 'composite',\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: det.map((l) => l.name).join('+'),\n components,\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n }\n if (!fallbackToJudge) return { runId: run.runId, reward: null }\n\n // Probabilistic fallback: the run's primary score. `trainingScore` already\n // carries the gate, so a gamed run falls to 0 rather than earning the\n // judge's number; `observedScore` is the ungated reader the detection\n // opt-out asks for. Either way an unscored run stays a labeled gap\n // (`reward: null`), never a fabricated 0.\n const primary = applyGate ? trainingScore(run) : observedScore(run)\n if (typeof primary !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(primary)) {\n return { runId: run.runId, reward: null }\n }\n const primaryValue = clamp01(primary)\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value: primaryValue,\n source: 'judge',\n determinism: 'probabilistic',\n confidence: judgeFloor,\n origin: 'run.outcome.score',\n components: { 'run.outcome.score': primaryValue },\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n })\n}\n\n/**\n * Filter `RunRecord[]` to those with deterministic verifiable rewards.\n *\n * A realness-gated run is KEPT, at reward 0 with `realnessGated: true` — the\n * same rule GRPO uses on a gated line. 0 is the honest label for a faked\n * success and is usable signal, whereas dropping the run would move a group\n * baseline without saying so. (SFT differs: there every row is a target to\n * imitate, so a gated row is removed outright.)\n */\nexport function filterDeterministicallyRewarded(\n runs: RunRecord[],\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): Array<{ run: RunRecord; reward: VerifiableReward }> {\n const rewarded = extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(runs, { ...opts, fallbackToJudge: false })\n const out: Array<{ run: RunRecord; reward: VerifiableReward }> = []\n for (let i = 0; i < runs.length; i++) {\n const r = rewarded[i]!\n if (r.reward && r.reward.determinism === 'deterministic') {\n out.push({ run: runs[i]!, reward: r.reward })\n }\n }\n return out\n}\n\nfunction clamp01(x: number): number {\n if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n","/**\n * Reward hacking / Goodhart detection.\n *\n * Goodhart's Law says: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be\n * a good measure. In RLHF and agentic-RL settings this is the dominant\n * failure mode — the policy learns to produce outputs that score well on\n * the proxy reward (judge, rubric, test pass-rate) without producing\n * the underlying capability the proxy was meant to track.\n *\n * Krakovna et al. (2020, \"Specification Gaming Examples in AI\") and the\n * subsequent RLHF reward-hacking literature (Skalse et al. 2022, Kim et al.\n * 2023) converge on a few diagnostic signatures:\n *\n * 1. **Reward divergence:** the proxy reward grows while the held-out\n * ground-truth signal stagnates or drops. Predictive validity over\n * time captures this.\n * 2. **Distributional shift in outputs:** after RL, the policy produces\n * outputs that no longer match the reference distribution — usually\n * because it found a high-reward attractor that's degenerate (e.g.\n * one-token responses, repetition, formatting tricks).\n * 3. **Disagreement between independent rewards:** if you train on\n * reward A and a held-out independent reward B drops sharply, you're\n * probably hacking A.\n * 4. **Calibration drift:** the verifiable / deterministic component of\n * the reward is stable; the probabilistic / judge component drifts up\n * while the deterministic component doesn't. The judge is being\n * gamed.\n *\n * This module ships explicit detectors for all four signatures, plus a\n * combined verdict. The output is diagnostic — actionable signals,\n * not autoreject — because each signature has known false positives\n * (e.g., a policy that genuinely improves can show distributional shift).\n *\n * Differs from `rubricPredictiveValidity` (which is a *standing* check on\n * whether rubrics correlate with deployment outcomes) — this is a\n * *temporal* check on whether the reward-vs-truth gap is *widening over\n * time during a training run*.\n */\n\nimport { observedScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { pearsonR } from '../statistics'\nimport {\n filterDeterministicallyRewarded,\n type VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions,\n} from './verifiable-reward'\n\nexport type RewardHackingSignal =\n | 'reward_divergence'\n | 'distribution_shift'\n | 'reward_disagreement'\n | 'judge_drift'\n\nexport interface RewardHackingFinding {\n signal: RewardHackingSignal\n /** Severity in [0, 1]. >0.5 = strong signal. */\n severity: number\n message: string\n /** Numeric evidence the consumer can render. */\n detail: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface RewardHackingReport {\n findings: RewardHackingFinding[]\n /** Signals with enough usable observations to produce a finding. */\n evaluatedSignals: RewardHackingSignal[]\n /**\n * Composite verdict. `'insufficient_evidence'` when fewer than four scored\n * runs exist; otherwise `'clean'` if every signal severity < 0.3,\n * `'suspect'` if at least one ≥ 0.3 but none ≥ 0.6, and `'gaming'` if any ≥ 0.6.\n */\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence' | 'clean' | 'suspect' | 'gaming'\n /** Rationale for the verdict, ready to paste into an audit log. */\n rationale: string[]\n /** Number of runs with a usable proxy reward. */\n n: number\n}\n\nexport interface DetectRewardHackingInput {\n /**\n * Run records ordered by recency (oldest first). The detector segments\n * them into prefix/suffix windows to compute \"did the gap widen.\"\n */\n runs: RunRecord[]\n /**\n * The metric the policy was trained to optimize. Should be present on\n * `outcome.raw` or `outcome.holdoutScore`. Default reads `outcome.holdoutScore`.\n */\n proxyOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number | null\n /**\n * The held-out ground-truth metric. For RL on coding, this is typically\n * test pass-rate. For RLHF, it's downstream task performance or human\n * preference. For knowledge tasks, it's an independently-graded score.\n */\n truthOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number | null\n /**\n * Independent secondary reward. Used for the `reward_disagreement`\n * signal. Default uses the verifiable reward extractor (deterministic\n * sources only).\n */\n secondaryRewardOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number | null\n /**\n * Window size — how many of the most recent runs count as the \"after\"\n * cohort. Default min(50, half the runs).\n */\n windowSize?: number\n /**\n * Severity threshold to flag a signal. Default 0.3 (suspect) and 0.6\n * (gaming).\n */\n thresholds?: { suspect?: number; gaming?: number }\n /**\n * Verifiable-reward options used for the secondary-reward fallback.\n */\n verifiableRewardOptions?: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_PROXY = (r: RunRecord): number | null => {\n // DELIBERATELY UNGATED. This is the proxy reward the detector tests for\n // Goodharting, and gated runs are exactly the gamed population. Forcing them\n // to 0 would collapse the proxy toward the deterministic secondary signal —\n // `reward_disagreement`'s correlation would rise, `judge_drift`'s gap would\n // shrink, and `reward_divergence`'s proxy-up/truth-flat fingerprint would be\n // erased — so the detector would report \"clean\" on the very runs it exists to\n // catch. `null` (never 0) is also load-bearing: it sets the n-denominator via\n // the filter below.\n const v = observedScore(r)\n return typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : null\n}\n\nexport function detectRewardHacking(input: DetectRewardHackingInput): RewardHackingReport {\n const proxyOf = input.proxyOf ?? DEFAULT_PROXY\n const truthOf = input.truthOf\n const sus = input.thresholds?.suspect ?? 0.3\n const gam = input.thresholds?.gaming ?? 0.6\n\n const runs = input.runs.filter((run) => finiteNumber(proxyOf(run)))\n const n = runs.length\n if (n < 4) {\n return {\n findings: [],\n evaluatedSignals: [],\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence',\n n,\n rationale: [`fewer than 4 runs with proxy reward (n=${n}); insufficient evidence`],\n }\n }\n const windowSize = Math.max(1, input.windowSize ?? Math.min(50, Math.floor(n / 2)))\n const before = runs.slice(0, n - windowSize)\n const after = runs.slice(n - windowSize)\n\n const findings: RewardHackingFinding[] = []\n\n // ── Signal 1: reward divergence (proxy ↑ while truth flat or ↓) ──────\n if (truthOf) {\n const beforeProxy = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterProxy = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const beforeTruth = before.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterTruth = after.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n if (\n beforeProxy.length >= 2 &&\n afterProxy.length >= 2 &&\n beforeTruth.length >= 2 &&\n afterTruth.length >= 2\n ) {\n const proxyDelta = mean(afterProxy) - mean(beforeProxy)\n const truthDelta = mean(afterTruth) - mean(beforeTruth)\n // Divergence: proxy goes up while truth goes flat or down.\n // Severity = max(0, (proxyDelta - truthDelta)) — bigger gap = bigger signal.\n const gap = Math.max(0, proxyDelta - truthDelta)\n const severity = clamp01(gap * 5) // scale: 0.2 absolute gap → severity 1.0\n findings.push({\n signal: 'reward_divergence',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `proxy reward rose by ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)} while truth changed by ${truthDelta.toFixed(3)} — potential Goodhart`\n : `proxy and truth moved together (proxy ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)}, truth ${truthDelta.toFixed(3)})`,\n detail: {\n proxyDelta,\n truthDelta,\n gap,\n beforeN: beforeProxy.length,\n afterN: afterProxy.length,\n },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 2: distributional shift in outputs (KS on score distributions) ──\n {\n const beforeP = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterP = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n if (beforeP.length >= 4 && afterP.length >= 4) {\n const ks = ksStatistic(beforeP, afterP)\n // KS statistic: bigger = more shift. We're agnostic about direction;\n // genuine improvement ALSO produces shift, so this signal is\n // contributory rather than load-bearing.\n const severity = clamp01(ks - 0.2)\n findings.push({\n signal: 'distribution_shift',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `KS=${ks.toFixed(3)} between before/after windows — distributional shift large`\n : `KS=${ks.toFixed(3)} between before/after windows — within-distribution drift`,\n detail: { ks, beforeN: beforeP.length, afterN: afterP.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 3: reward disagreement (proxy vs independent secondary) ────\n {\n const secondaryOf = input.secondaryRewardOf ?? defaultSecondary(input.verifiableRewardOptions)\n const aligned = runs\n .map((r) => ({ p: proxyOf(r), s: secondaryOf(r) }))\n .filter((x): x is { p: number; s: number } => finiteNumber(x.p) && finiteNumber(x.s))\n if (aligned.length >= 4) {\n const ps = aligned.map((x) => x.p)\n const ss = aligned.map((x) => x.s)\n const r = pearsonR(ps, ss)\n // Disagreement: low or negative correlation between primary proxy\n // reward and an independent secondary signal.\n const severity = clamp01(0.5 - Math.max(0, r))\n findings.push({\n signal: 'reward_disagreement',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `proxy and independent secondary reward correlate ρ=${r.toFixed(3)} — possibly hacking proxy`\n : `proxy and secondary reward correlate ρ=${r.toFixed(3)}`,\n detail: { pearson: r, n: aligned.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 4: judge drift (probabilistic up while deterministic flat) ─\n {\n // Ungated on purpose, exactly like `DEFAULT_PROXY` above. This signal is\n // the GAP between the judge reward and the deterministic one; a\n // deterministic reward another gate already forced to 0 would open that gap\n // by construction on the gamed population, so the detector would fire on\n // its own input rather than on evidence it found.\n const detRuns = filterDeterministicallyRewarded(runs, {\n ...(input.verifiableRewardOptions ?? {}),\n applyRealnessGate: false,\n })\n if (detRuns.length >= 4) {\n const detBefore = detRuns.slice(0, Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2))\n const detAfter = detRuns.slice(Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2))\n const detDelta =\n mean(detAfter.map((r) => r.reward.value)) - mean(detBefore.map((r) => r.reward.value))\n const proxyDelta =\n mean(after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)) -\n mean(before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber))\n const driftGap = Math.max(0, proxyDelta - detDelta)\n const severity = clamp01(driftGap * 5)\n findings.push({\n signal: 'judge_drift',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `judge proxy +${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)} while deterministic reward +${detDelta.toFixed(3)} — judge drifting up without verifiable backing`\n : `judge and deterministic rewards move in step (judge ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)}, det ${detDelta.toFixed(3)})`,\n detail: { proxyDelta, detDelta, driftGap, n: detRuns.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n const maxSev = findings.reduce((m, f) => Math.max(m, f.severity), 0)\n if (findings.length === 0) {\n return {\n findings,\n evaluatedSignals: [],\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence',\n rationale: [`no reward-hacking signal had enough paired evidence (n=${n})`],\n n,\n }\n }\n const verdict: RewardHackingReport['verdict'] =\n maxSev >= gam ? 'gaming' : maxSev >= sus ? 'suspect' : 'clean'\n const rationale = findings\n .filter((f) => f.severity >= sus)\n .map((f) => `${f.signal}: severity ${f.severity.toFixed(2)} — ${f.message}`)\n if (rationale.length === 0) rationale.push('no signals fired above suspect threshold')\n\n return {\n findings,\n evaluatedSignals: findings.map((finding) => finding.signal),\n verdict,\n rationale,\n n,\n }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction finiteNumber(value: number | null): value is number {\n return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\nfunction clamp01(x: number): number {\n if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n\nfunction ksStatistic(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n // Two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.\n const sortedA = [...a].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n const sortedB = [...b].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n const all = [...new Set([...sortedA, ...sortedB])].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n let max = 0\n for (const v of all) {\n const fa = sortedA.filter((x) => x <= v).length / sortedA.length\n const fb = sortedB.filter((x) => x <= v).length / sortedB.length\n max = Math.max(max, Math.abs(fa - fb))\n }\n return max\n}\n\nfunction defaultSecondary(\n verifiableOpts?: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions,\n): (run: RunRecord) => number | null {\n return (run: RunRecord) => {\n // Ungated for the same reason as signal 4: this is the INDEPENDENT\n // secondary reward whose correlation with the proxy is the evidence.\n // Zeroing it on gated runs would drive that correlation down mechanically.\n const filtered = filterDeterministicallyRewarded([run], {\n ...(verifiableOpts ?? {}),\n applyRealnessGate: false,\n })\n return filtered.length === 1 ? filtered[0]!.reward.value : null\n 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package/dist/rl.d.ts CHANGED
@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import { a as detectRewardHacking, c as VerifiableRewardSource, d as filterDeter
7
7
  import { i as InMemoryOutcomeStore, n as FileSystemOutcomeStore, o as OutcomeStore, r as FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions, t as DeploymentOutcome } from "./outcome-store-BYHIuO0e.js";
8
8
  import { t as AdversarialMutation } from "./adversarial-smnADNFS.js";
9
9
  import { b as RolloutSplit, o as MintedRolloutLine } from "./schema-Cef2cFmb.js";
10
- import { _ as EvalCampaignResult, a as FailureMode, c as SteeringChange, g as EvalCampaignOptions, i as ExperimentResult, r as ExperimentPlan, s as Researcher, y as runEvalCampaign } from "./researcher-CbSKhK8z.js";
10
+ import { _ as EvalCampaignResult, a as FailureMode, c as SteeringChange, g as EvalCampaignOptions, i as ExperimentResult, r as ExperimentPlan, s as Researcher, y as runEvalCampaign } from "./researcher-BtD5U1Up.js";
11
11
  import { t as InterimReleaseConfidence } from "./sequential-CYwq6Ff_.js";
12
12
  import { r as RubricPredictiveValidityReport } from "./rubric-predictive-validity-C1dCLcvb.js";
13
13
  //#region src/rl/active-curriculum.d.ts
package/dist/rl.js CHANGED
@@ -1,15 +1,15 @@
1
1
  import { s as ValidationError } from "./errors-8YnH8WlF.js";
2
- import { N as wilcoxonSignedRank, t as benjaminiHochberg } from "./statistics-DWM_AyLe.js";
2
+ import { R as wilcoxonSignedRank, o as benjaminiHochberg } from "./statistics-RwRNu2__.js";
3
3
  import { r as observedSplitScore, s as trainingScore } from "./reward-nw2xZGZG.js";
4
4
  import { o as runTaskScore } from "./run-record-BIwU2wdV.js";
5
5
  import { l as assertRewardGate } from "./schema-C6DW4ZHR.js";
6
6
  import { t as isSplitEligible } from "./exporters-q9iL-2Jf.js";
7
7
  import { t as mintRolloutRows } from "./mint-BvkwcYZU.js";
8
8
  import { a as InMemoryTraceStore } from "./integrity-BzRbCHzi.js";
9
- import { c as campaignCellToRunRecord, i as filterDeterministicallyRewarded, n as extractVerifiableReward, r as extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords, t as detectRewardHacking } from "./reward-hacking-Dl2UBzej.js";
10
- import { t as runEvalCampaign } from "./eval-campaign-DXhpZghy.js";
9
+ import { c as campaignCellToRunRecord, i as filterDeterministicallyRewarded, n as extractVerifiableReward, r as extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords, t as detectRewardHacking } from "./reward-hacking-DCdRK9TY.js";
10
+ import { t as runEvalCampaign } from "./eval-campaign-CvPcvqXC.js";
11
11
  import { t as evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence } from "./sequential-Br0mAPHA.js";
12
- import { t as rubricPredictiveValidity } from "./rubric-predictive-validity-QG7ydk0s.js";
12
+ import { t as rubricPredictiveValidity } from "./rubric-predictive-validity-D6Q6n9oq.js";
13
13
  import { n as thompsonCurriculum, r as varianceBasedCurriculum, t as observationsFromRunRecords } from "./active-curriculum-C4mk67HP.js";
14
14
  import { n as InMemoryOutcomeStore, t as FileSystemOutcomeStore } from "./outcome-store-ChBKlTd_.js";
15
15
  import { appendFileSync, existsSync, mkdirSync, readFileSync } from "node:fs";
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
1
- import { A as spearmanR, E as pearsonR } from "./statistics-DWM_AyLe.js";
1
+ import { F as spearmanR, j as pearsonR } from "./statistics-RwRNu2__.js";
2
2
  //#region src/meta-eval/rubric-predictive-validity.ts
3
3
  async function rubricPredictiveValidity(input) {
4
4
  const minSamples = input.minSamples ?? 8;
@@ -138,4 +138,4 @@ function makeRng(seed) {
138
138
  //#endregion
139
139
  export { rubricPredictiveValidity as t };
140
140
 
141
- //# sourceMappingURL=rubric-predictive-validity-QG7ydk0s.js.map
141
+ //# sourceMappingURL=rubric-predictive-validity-D6Q6n9oq.js.map
@@ -1 +1 @@
1
- {"version":3,"file":"rubric-predictive-validity-QG7ydk0s.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/meta-eval/rubric-predictive-validity.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Rubric predictive validity — does our eval rubric predict deployment\n * outcomes?\n *\n * `correlationStudy` (already in this package) joins a `TraceStore` to an\n * `OutcomeStore` and computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for each\n * (eval-metric, outcome-metric) pair. That answers \"does X correlate with\n * Y at all.\" `rubricPredictiveValidity` is the campaign-shaped wrapper\n * around it: take a sequence of `RunRecord`s (the canonical campaign\n * artifact) and a `DeploymentOutcomeStore`, join on `runId`, return a\n * ranked verdict on every rubric whose dimension scores were captured in\n * `outcome.raw`.\n *\n * The point — quoting the methodology doc — is that **without this loop\n * every rubric is faith-based**. Once it's wired, you know which rubrics\n * have earned their promotion power and which ones are decoration.\n *\n * const validity = await rubricPredictiveValidity({\n * runs: lastQuarter,\n * outcomes: shipFlagOutcomeStore,\n * outcomeMetrics: ['revenue_lift', 'retention_30d', 'csat'],\n * rubrics: ['anti_slop', 'semantic_concept', 'tool_recovery'],\n * })\n * for (const r of validity.ranked) {\n * console.log(`${r.rubric} → ${r.bestOutcome}: ρ=${r.spearman.toFixed(2)}`)\n * }\n *\n * The function is intentionally read-only. Use the verdict to deprecate\n * decorative rubrics, re-weight composite scores, or trigger a\n * recalibration sweep when predictive validity drops below a threshold.\n */\n\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityInput {\n /**\n * Canonical campaign output. Each record's `outcome.raw[<rubricId>]`\n * provides the eval score; missing keys are silently skipped per pair.\n */\n runs: RunRecord[]\n outcomes: OutcomeStore\n /**\n * Outcome metric names to evaluate against. Each must appear in at\n * least one `DeploymentOutcome.metrics` keyspace; pairs with too few\n * joined samples are excluded from the result.\n */\n outcomeMetrics: string[]\n /**\n * Rubric ids to evaluate. Must appear as keys in `RunRecord.outcome.raw`.\n * If omitted, every numeric key in `outcome.raw` across the run set is\n * treated as a rubric.\n */\n rubrics?: string[]\n /** Minimum joined-sample count before a pair is reported. Default 8. */\n minSamples?: number\n /** Bootstrap resamples for CI. Default 500. */\n bootstrapResamples?: number\n /** Random seed for the bootstrap (mulberry32). Default unset (Math.random). */\n seed?: number\n /**\n * Reduction when multiple outcomes attach to one runId. Default `'latest'`\n * (most recently captured).\n */\n reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricOutcomePair {\n rubric: string\n outcome: string\n n: number\n pearson: number\n spearman: number\n ci95: { low: number; high: number }\n /**\n * Verdict bucket. `load_bearing` ≥ 0.7, `informative` ≥ 0.4,\n * `decorative` < 0.4 in absolute correlation. A negative correlation\n * with a desired outcome is also `decorative` — actively misleading\n * is worse than uninformative.\n */\n verdict: 'load_bearing' | 'informative' | 'decorative'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricRanking {\n rubric: string\n /** Outcome metric this rubric correlated best with. */\n bestOutcome: string\n spearman: number\n pearson: number\n n: number\n verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict']\n}\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityReport {\n pairs: RubricOutcomePair[]\n /** Per-rubric best pair, sorted descending by |spearman|. */\n ranked: RubricRanking[]\n joinedSamples: number\n skippedRuns: number\n /** Rubrics that were declared but never produced a usable score. */\n rubricsWithoutData: string[]\n}\n\nexport async function rubricPredictiveValidity(\n input: RubricPredictiveValidityInput,\n): Promise<RubricPredictiveValidityReport> {\n const minSamples = input.minSamples ?? 8\n const reduction = input.reduction ?? 'latest'\n const resamples = input.bootstrapResamples ?? 500\n const rng = makeRng(input.seed)\n\n const outcomes = await input.outcomes.list()\n const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n for (const o of outcomes) {\n const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n arr.push(o)\n outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n }\n\n // Discover rubrics: caller-declared OR every numeric key in outcome.raw\n // observed across runs.\n const observedRubrics = new Set<string>()\n for (const r of input.runs) {\n for (const k of Object.keys(r.outcome.raw)) observedRubrics.add(k)\n }\n const rubrics = input.rubrics ?? [...observedRubrics]\n\n // Collect aligned (x, y) pairs per (rubric, outcome).\n type Bucket = { rubric: string; outcome: string; xs: number[]; ys: number[] }\n const buckets: Bucket[] = []\n for (const r of rubrics) {\n for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n buckets.push({ rubric: r, outcome: o, xs: [], ys: [] })\n }\n }\n\n let joined = 0\n let skipped = 0\n for (const run of input.runs) {\n const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId)\n if (!os || os.length === 0) {\n skipped++\n continue\n }\n let joinedThisRun = false\n for (const r of rubrics) {\n const x = run.outcome.raw[r]\n if (typeof x !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n const values = os\n .map((row) => row.metrics[o])\n .filter((v): v is number => typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v))\n if (values.length === 0) continue\n const y = reduce(values, os, o, reduction)\n if (y === null) continue\n const bucket = buckets.find((b) => b.rubric === r && b.outcome === o)!\n bucket.xs.push(x)\n bucket.ys.push(y)\n joinedThisRun = true\n }\n }\n if (joinedThisRun) joined++\n }\n\n const pairs: RubricOutcomePair[] = []\n for (const b of buckets) {\n if (b.xs.length < minSamples) continue\n const pearson = pearsonR(b.xs, b.ys)\n const spearman = spearmanR(b.xs, b.ys)\n const ci = bootstrapCi(b.xs, b.ys, resamples, rng)\n const verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict'] =\n Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.7\n ? 'load_bearing'\n : Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.4\n ? 'informative'\n : 'decorative'\n pairs.push({\n rubric: b.rubric,\n outcome: b.outcome,\n n: b.xs.length,\n pearson,\n spearman,\n ci95: ci,\n verdict,\n })\n }\n\n const byRubric = new Map<string, RubricOutcomePair[]>()\n for (const p of pairs) {\n const arr = byRubric.get(p.rubric) ?? []\n arr.push(p)\n byRubric.set(p.rubric, arr)\n }\n const ranked: RubricRanking[] = [...byRubric.entries()]\n .map(([rubric, ps]) => {\n const best = ps.reduce((a, b) => (Math.abs(b.spearman) > Math.abs(a.spearman) ? b : a))\n return {\n rubric,\n bestOutcome: best.outcome,\n spearman: best.spearman,\n pearson: best.pearson,\n n: best.n,\n verdict: best.verdict,\n }\n })\n .sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.spearman) - Math.abs(a.spearman))\n\n const rubricsWithoutData = rubrics.filter((r) => !byRubric.has(r))\n\n return { pairs, ranked, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped, rubricsWithoutData }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction reduce(\n values: number[],\n outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[],\n metric: string,\n kind: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max',\n): number | null {\n if (values.length === 0) return null\n if (kind === 'mean') return values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length\n if (kind === 'max') return Math.max(...values)\n // 'latest'\n const sorted = [...outcomes]\n .filter((o) => typeof o.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n .sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)\n return sorted[0]?.metrics[metric] ?? 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+ {"version":3,"file":"rubric-predictive-validity-D6Q6n9oq.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/meta-eval/rubric-predictive-validity.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Rubric predictive validity — does our eval rubric predict deployment\n * outcomes?\n *\n * `correlationStudy` (already in this package) joins a `TraceStore` to an\n * `OutcomeStore` and computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for each\n * (eval-metric, outcome-metric) pair. That answers \"does X correlate with\n * Y at all.\" `rubricPredictiveValidity` is the campaign-shaped wrapper\n * around it: take a sequence of `RunRecord`s (the canonical campaign\n * artifact) and a `DeploymentOutcomeStore`, join on `runId`, return a\n * ranked verdict on every rubric whose dimension scores were captured in\n * `outcome.raw`.\n *\n * The point — quoting the methodology doc — is that **without this loop\n * every rubric is faith-based**. Once it's wired, you know which rubrics\n * have earned their promotion power and which ones are decoration.\n *\n * const validity = await rubricPredictiveValidity({\n * runs: lastQuarter,\n * outcomes: shipFlagOutcomeStore,\n * outcomeMetrics: ['revenue_lift', 'retention_30d', 'csat'],\n * rubrics: ['anti_slop', 'semantic_concept', 'tool_recovery'],\n * })\n * for (const r of validity.ranked) {\n * console.log(`${r.rubric} → ${r.bestOutcome}: ρ=${r.spearman.toFixed(2)}`)\n * }\n *\n * The function is intentionally read-only. Use the verdict to deprecate\n * decorative rubrics, re-weight composite scores, or trigger a\n * recalibration sweep when predictive validity drops below a threshold.\n */\n\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityInput {\n /**\n * Canonical campaign output. Each record's `outcome.raw[<rubricId>]`\n * provides the eval score; missing keys are silently skipped per pair.\n */\n runs: RunRecord[]\n outcomes: OutcomeStore\n /**\n * Outcome metric names to evaluate against. Each must appear in at\n * least one `DeploymentOutcome.metrics` keyspace; pairs with too few\n * joined samples are excluded from the result.\n */\n outcomeMetrics: string[]\n /**\n * Rubric ids to evaluate. Must appear as keys in `RunRecord.outcome.raw`.\n * If omitted, every numeric key in `outcome.raw` across the run set is\n * treated as a rubric.\n */\n rubrics?: string[]\n /** Minimum joined-sample count before a pair is reported. Default 8. */\n minSamples?: number\n /** Bootstrap resamples for CI. Default 500. */\n bootstrapResamples?: number\n /** Random seed for the bootstrap (mulberry32). Default unset (Math.random). */\n seed?: number\n /**\n * Reduction when multiple outcomes attach to one runId. Default `'latest'`\n * (most recently captured).\n */\n reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricOutcomePair {\n rubric: string\n outcome: string\n n: number\n pearson: number\n spearman: number\n ci95: { low: number; high: number }\n /**\n * Verdict bucket. `load_bearing` ≥ 0.7, `informative` ≥ 0.4,\n * `decorative` < 0.4 in absolute correlation. A negative correlation\n * with a desired outcome is also `decorative` — actively misleading\n * is worse than uninformative.\n */\n verdict: 'load_bearing' | 'informative' | 'decorative'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricRanking {\n rubric: string\n /** Outcome metric this rubric correlated best with. */\n bestOutcome: string\n spearman: number\n pearson: number\n n: number\n verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict']\n}\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityReport {\n pairs: RubricOutcomePair[]\n /** Per-rubric best pair, sorted descending by |spearman|. */\n ranked: RubricRanking[]\n joinedSamples: number\n skippedRuns: number\n /** Rubrics that were declared but never produced a usable score. */\n rubricsWithoutData: string[]\n}\n\nexport async function rubricPredictiveValidity(\n input: RubricPredictiveValidityInput,\n): Promise<RubricPredictiveValidityReport> {\n const minSamples = input.minSamples ?? 8\n const reduction = input.reduction ?? 'latest'\n const resamples = input.bootstrapResamples ?? 500\n const rng = makeRng(input.seed)\n\n const outcomes = await input.outcomes.list()\n const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n for (const o of outcomes) {\n const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n arr.push(o)\n outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n }\n\n // Discover rubrics: caller-declared OR every numeric key in outcome.raw\n // observed across runs.\n const observedRubrics = new Set<string>()\n for (const r of input.runs) {\n for (const k of Object.keys(r.outcome.raw)) observedRubrics.add(k)\n }\n const rubrics = input.rubrics ?? [...observedRubrics]\n\n // Collect aligned (x, y) pairs per (rubric, outcome).\n type Bucket = { rubric: string; outcome: string; xs: number[]; ys: number[] }\n const buckets: Bucket[] = []\n for (const r of rubrics) {\n for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n buckets.push({ rubric: r, outcome: o, xs: [], ys: [] })\n }\n }\n\n let joined = 0\n let skipped = 0\n for (const run of input.runs) {\n const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId)\n if (!os || os.length === 0) {\n skipped++\n continue\n }\n let joinedThisRun = false\n for (const r of rubrics) {\n const x = run.outcome.raw[r]\n if (typeof x !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n const values = os\n .map((row) => row.metrics[o])\n .filter((v): v is number => typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v))\n if (values.length === 0) continue\n const y = reduce(values, os, o, reduction)\n if (y === null) continue\n const bucket = buckets.find((b) => b.rubric === r && b.outcome === o)!\n bucket.xs.push(x)\n bucket.ys.push(y)\n joinedThisRun = true\n }\n }\n if (joinedThisRun) joined++\n }\n\n const pairs: RubricOutcomePair[] = []\n for (const b of buckets) {\n if (b.xs.length < minSamples) continue\n const pearson = pearsonR(b.xs, b.ys)\n const spearman = spearmanR(b.xs, b.ys)\n const ci = bootstrapCi(b.xs, b.ys, resamples, rng)\n const verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict'] =\n Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.7\n ? 'load_bearing'\n : Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.4\n ? 'informative'\n : 'decorative'\n pairs.push({\n rubric: b.rubric,\n outcome: b.outcome,\n n: b.xs.length,\n pearson,\n spearman,\n ci95: ci,\n verdict,\n })\n }\n\n const byRubric = new Map<string, RubricOutcomePair[]>()\n for (const p of pairs) {\n const arr = byRubric.get(p.rubric) ?? []\n arr.push(p)\n byRubric.set(p.rubric, arr)\n }\n const ranked: RubricRanking[] = [...byRubric.entries()]\n .map(([rubric, ps]) => {\n const best = ps.reduce((a, b) => (Math.abs(b.spearman) > Math.abs(a.spearman) ? b : a))\n return {\n rubric,\n bestOutcome: best.outcome,\n spearman: best.spearman,\n pearson: best.pearson,\n n: best.n,\n verdict: best.verdict,\n }\n })\n .sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.spearman) - Math.abs(a.spearman))\n\n const rubricsWithoutData = rubrics.filter((r) => !byRubric.has(r))\n\n return { pairs, ranked, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped, rubricsWithoutData }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction reduce(\n values: number[],\n outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[],\n metric: string,\n kind: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max',\n): number | null {\n if (values.length === 0) return null\n if (kind === 'mean') return values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length\n if (kind === 'max') return Math.max(...values)\n // 'latest'\n const sorted = [...outcomes]\n .filter((o) => typeof o.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n .sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)\n return sorted[0]?.metrics[metric] ?? null\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapCi(\n xs: number[],\n ys: number[],\n iterations: number,\n rng: () => number,\n): { low: number; high: number } {\n const n = xs.length\n if (n < 3) return { low: Number.NaN, high: Number.NaN }\n const samples: number[] = []\n for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n const rx = new Array<number>(n)\n const ry = new Array<number>(n)\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n const idx = Math.floor(rng() * n)\n rx[i] = xs[idx]!\n ry[i] = ys[idx]!\n }\n const r = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n if (Number.isFinite(r)) samples.push(r)\n }\n samples.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n if (samples.length === 0) return { low: Number.NaN, high: Number.NaN }\n return {\n low: samples[Math.floor(0.025 * samples.length)]!,\n high: samples[Math.min(samples.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * samples.length))]!,\n }\n}\n\nfunction makeRng(seed?: number): () => number {\n if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n let s = seed >>> 0\n return () => {\n s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0\n let t = s\n t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n }\n}\n"],"mappings":";;AAwGA,eAAsB,yBACpB,OACyC;CACzC,MAAM,aAAa,MAAM,cAAc;CACvC,MAAM,YAAY,MAAM,aAAa;CACrC,MAAM,YAAY,MAAM,sBAAsB;CAC9C,MAAM,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM,IAAI;CAE9B,MAAM,WAAW,MAAM,MAAM,SAAS,KAAK;CAC3C,MAAM,gCAAgB,IAAI,IAAiC;CAC3D,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,UAAU;EACxB,MAAM,MAAM,cAAc,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,KAAK,CAAC;EAC3C,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC;EACV,cAAc,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,GAAG;CAChC;CAIA,MAAM,kCAAkB,IAAI,IAAY;CACxC,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,MACpB,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,QAAQ,GAAG,GAAG,gBAAgB,IAAI,CAAC;CAEnE,MAAM,UAAU,MAAM,WAAW,CAAC,GAAG,eAAe;CAIpD,MAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;CAC3B,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,SACd,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,gBACpB,QAAQ,KAAK;EAAE,QAAQ;EAAG,SAAS;EAAG,IAAI,CAAC;EAAG,IAAI,CAAC;CAAE,CAAC;CAI1D,IAAI,SAAS;CACb,IAAI,UAAU;CACd,KAAK,MAAM,OAAO,MAAM,MAAM;EAC5B,MAAM,KAAK,cAAc,IAAI,IAAI,KAAK;EACtC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,WAAW,GAAG;GAC1B;GACA;EACF;EACA,IAAI,gBAAgB;EACpB,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,SAAS;GACvB,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI;GAC1B,IAAI,OAAO,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,GAAG;GAClD,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,gBAAgB;IACpC,MAAM,SAAS,GACZ,KAAK,QAAQ,IAAI,QAAQ,EAAE,CAAC,CAC5B,QAAQ,MAAmB,OAAO,MAAM,YAAY,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC;IACzE,IAAI,OAAO,WAAW,GAAG;IACzB,MAAM,IAAI,OAAO,QAAQ,IAAI,GAAG,SAAS;IACzC,IAAI,MAAM,MAAM;IAChB,MAAM,SAAS,QAAQ,MAAM,MAAM,EAAE,WAAW,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,CAAC;IACpE,OAAO,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC;IAChB,OAAO,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC;IAChB,gBAAgB;GAClB;EACF;EACA,IAAI,eAAe;CACrB;CAEA,MAAM,QAA6B,CAAC;CACpC,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,SAAS;EACvB,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,SAAS,YAAY;EAC9B,MAAM,UAAU,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE;EACnC,MAAM,WAAW,UAAU,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE;EACrC,MAAM,KAAK,YAAY,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,IAAI,WAAW,GAAG;EACjD,MAAM,UACJ,KAAK,IAAI,QAAQ,KAAK,KAClB,iBACA,KAAK,IAAI,QAAQ,KAAK,KACpB,gBACA;EACR,MAAM,KAAK;GACT,QAAQ,EAAE;GACV,SAAS,EAAE;GACX,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG;GACR;GACA;GACA,MAAM;GACN;EACF,CAAC;CACH;CAEA,MAAM,2BAAW,IAAI,IAAiC;CACtD,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,OAAO;EACrB,MAAM,MAAM,SAAS,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC;EACvC,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC;EACV,SAAS,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,GAAG;CAC5B;CACA,MAAM,SAA0B,CAAC,GAAG,SAAS,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,CACpD,KAAK,CAAC,QAAQ,QAAQ;EACrB,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,QAAQ,GAAG,MAAO,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,CAAE;EACtF,OAAO;GACL;GACA,aAAa,KAAK;GAClB,UAAU,KAAK;GACf,SAAS,KAAK;GACd,GAAG,KAAK;GACR,SAAS,KAAK;EAChB;CACF,CAAC,CAAC,CACD,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,CAAC;CAE7D,MAAM,qBAAqB,QAAQ,QAAQ,MAAM,CAAC,SAAS,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;CAEjE,OAAO;EAAE;EAAO;EAAQ,eAAe;EAAQ,aAAa;EAAS;CAAmB;AAC1F;AAIA,SAAS,OACP,QACA,UACA,QACA,MACe;CACf,IAAI,OAAO,WAAW,GAAG,OAAO;CAChC,IAAI,SAAS,QAAQ,OAAO,OAAO,QAAQ,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,OAAO;CACvE,IAAI,SAAS,OAAO,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,MAAM;CAK7C,OAHe,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC,CACzB,QAAQ,MAAM,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ,YAAY,QAAQ,CAAC,CACpD,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,UACvB,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,QAAQ,WAAW;AACvC;AAEA,SAAS,YACP,IACA,IACA,YACA,KAC+B;CAC/B,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG;CACb,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,OAAO;EAAE,KAAK;EAAY,MAAM;CAAW;CACtD,MAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;CAC3B,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,YAAY,KAAK;EACnC,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,MAAc,CAAC;EAC9B,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,MAAc,CAAC;EAC9B,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,KAAK;GAC1B,MAAM,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC;GAChC,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG;GACX,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG;EACb;EACA,MAAM,IAAI,SAAS,IAAI,EAAE;EACzB,IAAI,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,KAAK,CAAC;CACxC;CACA,QAAQ,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,CAAC;CAC5B,IAAI,QAAQ,WAAW,GAAG,OAAO;EAAE,KAAK;EAAY,MAAM;CAAW;CACrE,OAAO;EACL,KAAK,QAAQ,KAAK,MAAM,OAAQ,QAAQ,MAAM;EAC9C,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,IAAI,QAAQ,SAAS,GAAG,KAAK,MAAM,OAAQ,QAAQ,MAAM,CAAC;CAC/E;AACF;AAEA,SAAS,QAAQ,MAA6B;CAC5C,IAAI,SAAS,KAAA,GAAW,OAAO,KAAK;CACpC,IAAI,IAAI,SAAS;CACjB,aAAa;EACX,IAAK,IAAI,eAAgB;EACzB,IAAI,IAAI;EACR,IAAI,KAAK,KAAK,IAAK,MAAM,IAAK,IAAI,CAAC;EACnC,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,KAAK,IAAK,MAAM,GAAI,IAAI,EAAE;EACxC,SAAS,IAAK,MAAM,QAAS,KAAK;CACpC;AACF"}
@@ -4,10 +4,10 @@ import { s as TraceStore } from "./store-CT9YIIve.js";
4
4
  import { n as LlmCallMetadata } from "./llm-client-BiK4HW0u.js";
5
5
  import { A as ChatClient } from "./types-Cc3qbqzj.js";
6
6
  import { C as JudgeDimension, H as SurfaceProposer, N as ParetoParent, R as Scenario, S as JudgeConfig, _ as GateDecision, a as CampaignResult, b as GenerationRecord, c as CampaignTraceWriter, d as DispatchContext, f as DispatchFn, g as GateContribution, h as GateContext, i as CampaignCostMeter, j as MutableSurface, k as LabeledScenarioStore, o as CampaignScenarioIdentity, p as Gate, r as CampaignCellResult, v as GateResult, y as GenerationCandidate } from "./types-BokuXvOG.js";
7
- import { f as PairedBootstrapResult } from "./statistics-DbvkkDPa.js";
7
+ import { _ as PairedBootstrapResult } from "./statistics-D_4Snl-5.js";
8
8
  import { a as DatasetScenario, t as Dataset } from "./dataset-BvtnC8Dc.js";
9
9
  import { t as DetectRewardHackingInput } from "./reward-hacking-D-QqXvg-.js";
10
- import { g as TraceSpanEvent, t as HostedClient } from "./client-COvaLoQG.js";
10
+ import { g as TraceSpanEvent, t as HostedClient } from "./client-Du7B81wW.js";
11
11
  import { z } from "zod";
12
12
  //#region src/llm-judge.d.ts
13
13
  /** A rubric dimension as a bare key or the full `{ key, description }` shape. A
@@ -831,8 +831,8 @@ interface DefaultProductionGateOptions {
831
831
  /** Fixed bootstrap seed for a deterministic verdict. Default 1337. */
832
832
  bootstrapSeed?: number;
833
833
  /** Minimum paired holdout observations (scenarios × reps) before a
834
- * significance claim is allowed; below it the gate HOLDS with `few_runs`
835
- * rather than reading a degenerate CI. Default 3. */
834
+ * significance claim is allowed. The exact small-sample test may require
835
+ * more observations at the selected confidence. Default 3. */
836
836
  minProductiveRuns?: number;
837
837
  /** Ship statistic for the held-out significance test. Default `'mean'`
838
838
  * (tie-robust — see `heldoutSignificance`). Pass `'median'` for
@@ -880,7 +880,9 @@ interface HeldOutGateOptions<TScenario extends Scenario = Scenario> {
880
880
  deltaThreshold?: number;
881
881
  /** Bootstrap CI confidence. Default 0.95. */
882
882
  confidence?: number;
883
- /** Minimum paired holdout observations to claim significance. Default 3. */
883
+ /** Minimum paired holdout observations to claim significance. The exact
884
+ * small-sample test may require more observations at the selected
885
+ * confidence. Default 3. */
884
886
  minProductiveRuns?: number;
885
887
  /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */
886
888
  resamples?: number;
@@ -1084,6 +1086,8 @@ interface AxisEvidence {
1084
1086
  bootstrap: PairedBootstrapResult;
1085
1087
  /** Paired observations contributing to this axis. */
1086
1088
  n: number;
1089
+ minimumRequired: number;
1090
+ decisionMethod: 'bootstrap-ci' | 'exact-sign';
1087
1091
  gainThreshold: number;
1088
1092
  floorTolerance: number;
1089
1093
  verdict: AxisVerdict;
@@ -1107,7 +1111,8 @@ interface EvidenceVector {
1107
1111
  type PromotionPolicy = (ev: EvidenceVector) => GateResult;
1108
1112
  interface BuildEvidenceVectorOptions {
1109
1113
  /** Minimum paired observations before an axis can claim significance; below
1110
- * it the axis is `few_runs`. Default 3. */
1114
+ * it the axis is `few_runs`. The exact small-sample test may require more
1115
+ * observations at the selected confidence. */
1111
1116
  minProductiveRuns?: number;
1112
1117
  /** Confidence level for every axis bootstrap. Default 0.95. */
1113
1118
  confidence?: number;
@@ -1737,4 +1742,4 @@ interface SkillOptOptimizationMethodConfig<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact
1737
1742
  declare function skillOptOptimizationMethod<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(config: SkillOptOptimizationMethodConfig<TScenario, TArtifact>): OptimizationMethod<TScenario, TArtifact>;
1738
1743
  //#endregion
1739
1744
  export { Objective as $, optimizationTokenUsageFromSummary as $t, RunEvalOptions as A, CanarySeverity as At, OptimizerModelBudget as B, ComparisonCost as Bt, RunImprovementLoopOptions as C, ReferenceEquivalenceJudgeResult as Cn, scoreRedTeamOutput as Ct, RunOptimizationOptions as D, LlmJudgeDimension as Dn, CanaryKind as Dt, PremeasuredOptimizationBaseline as E, runReferenceEquivalenceJudge as En, CanaryEvaluation as Et, GepaOptimizationMethodConfig as F, ExternalTextOptimizerContext as Ft, ObjectiveSource as G, OptimizationMethodProvenance as Gt, AxisVerdict as H, OptimizationMethodComparison as Ht, GepaOptimizationRecipe as I, ExternalTextOptimizerResult as It, PromotionPolicy as J, OptimizationMethodScore as Jt, ParetoSignificanceGateOptions as K, OptimizationMethodResult as Kt, GepaRunnerCommand as L, ExternalOptimizationExample as Lt, GepaAdaptiveEngineRun as M, composeGate as Mt, GepaEngineOptions as N, externalTextOptimizationMethod as Nt, RunOptimizationResult as O, LlmJudgeOptions as On, CanaryOptions as Ot, GepaEngineRun as P, ExternalTextOptimizationMethodConfig as Pt, Direction as Q, costFromLedgerSummary as Qt, gepaOptimizationMethod as R, ExternalTextEvaluationResponse as Rt, verifyLoopProvenanceRecord as S, ReferenceEquivalenceJudgeOptions as Sn, redTeamReport as St, runImprovementLoop as T, createReferenceEquivalenceJudge as Tn, CanaryAlert as Tt, BuildEvidenceVectorOptions as U, OptimizationMethodInput as Ut, AxisEvidence as V, OptimizationMethod as Vt, EvidenceVector as W, OptimizationMethodPairwise as Wt, paretoPolicy as X, OptimizationTokenUsage as Xt, buildEvidenceVector as Y, OptimizationPackageSource as Yt, paretoSignificanceGate as Z, compareOptimizationMethods as Zt, emitLoopProvenance as _, OpenAutoPrResult as _n, RedTeamCategory as _t, BuildLoopProvenanceArgs as a, planCampaignRun as an, scalarScore as at, provenanceRecordPath as b, REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_JUDGE_VERSION as bn, RedTeamReport as bt, LoopProvenanceArgsFromResult as c, createRunCostLedger as cn, powerPreflight as ct, LoopProvenanceEvidence as d, assertCampaignDesign as dn, DefaultProductionGateCheck as dt, CampaignCellFailureReceipt as en, ParetoResult as et, LoopProvenanceOptimizationMethod as f, assertCampaignSplitIdentity as fn, DefaultProductionGateOptions as ft, canonicalDigest as g, OpenAutoPrOptions as gn, RedTeamCase as gt, campaignMeasurementDigest as h, campaignSplitDigestFromIdentities as hn, DEFAULT_RED_TEAM_CORPUS as ht, skillOptOptimizationMethod as i, RunCampaignOptions as in, paretoFrontierWithCrowding as it, runEval as j, runCanaries as jt, runOptimization as k, llmJudge as kn, CanaryReport as kt, LoopProvenanceBackend as l, fsCampaignStorage as ln, HeldOutGateOptions as lt, buildLoopProvenanceRecord as m, campaignSplitDigest as mn, defaultProductionGate as mt, SkillOptRunnerCommand as n, CampaignRunPlanCell as nn, dominates as nt, EmitLoopProvenanceArgs as o, runCampaign as on, PowerPreflight as ot, LoopProvenanceRecord as p, campaignScenarioIdentity as pn, DefaultProductionRewardHackingOptions as pt, PromotionObjective as q, OptimizationMethodRunOptions as qt, SkillOptTrainerConfig as r, PlanCampaignRunOptions as rn, paretoFrontier as rt, EmitLoopProvenanceResult as s, CampaignStorage as sn, PowerPreflightOptions as st, SkillOptOptimizationMethodConfig as t, CampaignRunPlan as tn, crowdingDistance as tt, LoopProvenanceCandidate as u, inMemoryCampaignStorage as un, heldOutGate as ut, loopProvenanceArgsFromResult as v, openAutoPr as vn, RedTeamFinding as vt, RunImprovementLoopResult as w, ReferenceEquivalenceScenario as wn, toolNamesForRun as wt, provenanceSpansPath as x, ReferenceEquivalenceJudgeInput as xn, redTeamDataset as xt, loopProvenanceSpans as y, REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_INPUT_LIMITS as yn, RedTeamPayload as yt, OpenAICompatibleOptimizerModel as z, CompareOptimizationMethodsOptions as zt };
1740
- //# sourceMappingURL=skillopt-optimization-method-wHF5xsUv.d.ts.map
1745
+ //# sourceMappingURL=skillopt-optimization-method-Dxr8pdZd.d.ts.map
@@ -1 +1 @@
1
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