@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.133.2 → 0.133.3

package/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -4,6 +4,162 @@ All notable changes to `@tangle-network/agent-eval` and its sibling `agent-eval-
 
 ---
 
+## [0.133.3] - 2026-07-27 - trustworthy statistical decisions
+
+### Consumer notice — reported p-values were too small in every release from 0.1.0 to 0.133.0
+
+0.133.1 corrected the standard-normal CDF. This release carries the rest, and
+restates the notice because the re-check bands and the affected version range are
+what a consumer actually needs.
+
+A standard-normal CDF mixed the arguments of the Abramowitz–Stegun error-function
+approximation, giving up to `3.7189e-2` absolute CDF error where a correct
+implementation is bounded by `7.5e-8`. Every p-value routed through it was too
+small by 26–36 % relative, so the module's real type-I error rate was **6.53 % at
+a nominal 5 %** and **1.34 % at a nominal 1 %**. The defect entered at the initial
+commit (`7d5032b`, 2026-04-20) and shipped in every release through 0.133.0.
+
+**Affected:** `mannWhitneyU`, `wilcoxonSignedRank`, `pairedTTest`, `welchsTTest`,
+`compareToBaseline`, `mcnemarPower`.
+
+**Unaffected** (verified numerically identical before and after, because they route
+through the inverse normal rather than the forward CDF): `requiredSampleSize`,
+`requiredPairedSampleSize`, `pairedMde`, `mcnemarRequiredN`, `mcnemar`,
+`pairedSignTest`, `wilson`, `passAtK`, `corpusInterRaterAgreement`, `eProcess`,
+`holm`, `ranks`, `pearsonR`, `spearmanR`, `cliffsDelta`, `pairedCohensDz`.
+
+**How to re-check a decision you already made.** The error is monotone in `|z|`, so
+the affected band is exact and narrow:
+
+- Any recorded p in `[0.038053, 0.050000)` crossed a 5 % gate it should not have.
+- At `α = 0.01` the band is `[0.007443, 0.010000)`; at `α = 0.10`, `[0.077398, 0.100000)`.
+- A recorded p below `0.038053` was significant either way; at or above `0.05`, not
+  significant either way. Neither needs re-checking.
+
+Three further cautions, independent of the CDF:
+
+- A `wilcoxonSignedRank` leg that reported `p = 1` on fewer than six non-zero
+  differences measured nothing — the function hard-returned `p = 1` there with no
+  flag. A clean 5-of-5 shift reported `1.0` where the exact answer is `0.0625`.
+  Exact ties are dropped before ranking, so ten pairs with five tied deltas also
+  fell into that branch. Re-run those on this release.
+- A promotion that turned on a `pairedBootstrap` `low > 0` check below 20 pairs was
+  never valid at the stated confidence: measured false-positive rate is 13.53 % at
+  `n = 3` against a nominal 2.5 %. `gateEligible` now reports this.
+- A bootstrap interval recorded through `analyze-runs.ts` at or before 0.133.0 is
+  not reproducible — that call site passed no seed and `makeRng` fell back to
+  `Math.random`.
+
+Full evidence, per-statistic verdicts, and the dependency argument:
+[`docs/design/statistics-decisions.md`](./docs/design/statistics-decisions.md).
+
+### Fixed
+
+- `regularizedIncompleteBeta` takes the mandatory symmetry branch `I_x(a,b) = 1 − I_{1−x}(b,a)`.
+  `studentTCdf(0.005, 100)` returned `0.89152130` against a true `0.50198972`; a
+  perfectly null paired result reported `p < 0.05`. This survived 0.133.1, which
+  corrected the normal CDF but not the beta continued fraction beneath it, and
+  0.133.2, which changed no statistics math.
+- `mannWhitneyU` and `wilcoxonSignedRank` compute an EXACT conditional p by default
+  inside the enumeration thresholds, conditioning on the observed tie pattern.
+- `mannWhitneyU` chooses exact computation from bounded state and work estimates,
+  so imbalanced designs such as 1 v 24 remain exact without admitting expensive
+  balanced designs. Its automatic permutation seed is invariant to observation
+  order and to swapping the two groups.
+- Deleted `wilcoxonSignedRank`'s `n < 6` hard return of `{w: 0, p: 1}`.
+- The asymptotic rank-test path applies the tie correction and the continuity
+  correction; both were missing.
+- `mannWhitneyU` and `wilcoxonSignedRank` reject non-finite input. A single `NaN`
+  previously spun forever: the tie-grouping loop advanced on `===`, and
+  `NaN === NaN` is false.
+- `bonferroni` and `benjaminiHochberg` reject at the inclusive boundary (`p ≤ α`,
+  `q ≤ fdr`), matching `holm`, and validate `alpha`/`fdr` and the p-value range.
+  `bonferroni([0.0125]×4, 0.05)` returned all-false where `holm` returned all-true.
+  BH q-values use R's `(n/rank)·p` form; `(p·n)/rank` lands one ULP above the
+  boundary at `p = 0.05, n = 3`.
+- `interRaterReliability` groups by (dimension, item) across judges. It was
+  bucketing consecutive scores from the SAME judge, so it measured within-judge
+  spread: two identical judges returned `−0.5` where the true α is `+1.0`.
+- `mulberry32(0)` is its own stream. `seed | 0 || 0x9e3779b9` collapsed seed 0 onto
+  the golden-ratio constant, so two runs a caller believed were independent
+  replicates were the same run. Non-finite seeds now throw.
+- Unseeded bootstraps derive their seed from the data instead of `Math.random`, so
+  an interval is reproducible whether or not the caller passes a seed.
+- `studentTCdf` uses the regularized incomplete beta for every finite degree of
+  freedom. The deleted normal shortcut changed `df = 102, t = 1.98` from the true
+  two-sided `p = 0.050398` to `0.047703`.
+- At the default 95% confidence, campaign promotion decisions use an exact
+  one-sided sign test from 6 through 19 paired observations and the bootstrap
+  interval from 20 onward. Samples too small to attain the requested confidence
+  remain inconclusive.
+- Prior-period reports use the shared Welch implementation. Zero-variance and
+  under-sized comparisons carry an explicit status and null inferential fields
+  instead of fabricated `p = 1`, `d = 0`, and a zero-width interval.
+
+### Changed — BREAKING
+
+- `mannWhitneyU(a, b, opts?)` returns `{ u, uA, p, method, pFloor }`. `p` is now the
+  exact conditional p inside the threshold: `mannWhitneyU([1,2,3],[4,5,6]).p` moves
+  from `0.03769147` to `0.10000000`, which is the smallest p attainable at 3 v 3.
+  `uA` carries the direction that `u = min(u₁,u₂)` discards.
+- `wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after, opts?)` returns
+  `{ w, p, method, pFloor, nNonZero }`.
+- Both take `method: 'auto' | 'exact' | 'asymptotic'`, default `'auto'`. `'auto'`
+  never selects `'asymptotic'`. Requesting `'asymptotic'` where an exact answer
+  exists THROWS a `ValidationError` naming the attainable floor, and requesting
+  `'exact'` above the threshold throws rather than enumerating an unbounded
+  distribution.
+- `pairedTTest` returns `{ t: number | null, df, p: number | null }`. A non-zero
+  constant delta returned `{t: Infinity, p: 0}` — absolute certainty from three
+  observations — and now returns null, matching `pairedCohensDz`. An all-zero delta
+  is still `{t: 0, p: 1}`.
+- `cohensD` returns `number | null`. It returned a silent `0` for a maximal
+  zero-variance separation and for under-sized groups.
+- `MetricVerdict.cohensD` and `LiftInsight.pValue` are nullable accordingly.
+- `PairedBootstrapResult` carries `gateEligible`, false below
+  `BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N = 20`.
+- `welchsTTest` returns a status-tagged full result with means, delta, standard
+  error, degrees of freedom, Student-t interval, p-value, and Cohen's d.
+- Prior-period `MetricDelta` values carry the same status. Invalid inference has
+  null `ci95`, `pValue`, and `cohensD`, and the comparison lists those metric
+  names in `inconclusiveMetrics`.
+
+### Added
+
+- `scripts/generate-statistics-oracle.py` + `tests/fixtures/statistics-oracle.json`:
+  154 scipy/statsmodels-generated golden values across 22 statistics, asserted by
+  `tests/statistics-oracle.test.ts`. scipy is a CI oracle and is never a runtime
+  dependency.
+- `tests/statistics-library-crosscheck.test.ts` cross-checks untied exact null
+  distributions against `lib-r-math.js`. Multiple-comparison functions are pinned
+  to statsmodels-generated fixture values; `@stdlib/stats-padjust` was removed.
+- First test coverage for `welchsTTest` / `compareToBaseline`, which gated
+  improved / regressed / stable verdicts with nothing asserting their numbers.
+- Exported `normalCdf`, `studentTCdf`, `BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N`,
+  `MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES`, `MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK`,
+  `WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N`, `DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS`, and `pairedDeltaTest`.
+
+### Trusted-head recovery
+
+#### Fixed
+
+- A trusted-head pin write that fails after its journal row is already durable no longer leaves that row permanently unpinned.
+  Retrying the same `eventId` moves the pin up to the acknowledged entry when the entry is ahead of the pin, so the last row of a ledger — the promotion decision — cannot be truncated away undetected after a full disk or a read-only mount.
+- A pin whose journal was deleted or rebuilt is recoverable instead of refusing every later append and replay forever.
+  The refusal still stands, since a missing journal beside a live pin is the deletion the pin exists to catch, but it now names the sidecar file and the operation that resolves it.
+- Trusted-head read and write faults are reported through the journal codec's error taxonomy instead of escaping as raw Node filesystem errors.
+
+#### Added
+
+- `clearTrustedHeadFile`, exposed as `FileLedgerJournal.clearTrustedHead()` and `SearchLedger.clearTrustedHead()`, discards a pin and returns the guarantee it gave up.
+- `SearchLedger.pinTrustedHead()`, the campaign-level route to adopting a pin for a ledger that has none.
+- `readTrustedHeadFile` is exported from `@tangle-network/agent-eval/ledger-core`, so a consumer of `verifyEntriesAgainstTrustedHead` has a shape-validating way to load a pin.
+
+#### Changed
+
+- **Breaking:** `verifyEntriesAgainstTrustedHead` takes `{ subject, trustedHeadPath }` as its fourth argument instead of a bare `subject` string, so every refusal can name the sidecar file. Passing the old string throws a `TypeError`.
+- **Breaking:** `SearchLedger` declares `pinTrustedHead` and `clearTrustedHead`; an external implementation of the interface must supply them.
+
 ## [0.133.2] - 2026-07-27 - protect final evaluation data
 
 ### Fixed

package/dist/{analyze-runs-BmX-h_yn.d.ts → analyze-runs-BClW9OSe.d.ts}

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 import { a as RunRecord } from "./run-record-DcObtIGh.js";
 import { i as AnalystRegistry } from "./default-registry-Cl3pHo4n.js";
 import { a as DatasetScenario } from "./dataset-BvtnC8Dc.js";
-import "./summary-report-CFnQgNfg.js";
-import { C as InsightReport, b as ExecutionInsight, v as CostProvenanceSummary } from "./client-COvaLoQG.js";
+import "./summary-report-DyOhItws.js";
+import { C as InsightReport, b as ExecutionInsight, v as CostProvenanceSummary } from "./client-Du7B81wW.js";
 //#region src/contract/analyze-runs.d.ts
 interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {
   /** The runs to analyze. */
@@ -69,4 +69,4 @@ declare function summarizeExecution(opts: SummarizeExecutionOptions): ExecutionR
 declare function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport>;
 //#endregion
 export { summarizeExecution as a, analyzeRuns as i, ExecutionReport as n, SummarizeExecutionOptions as r, AnalyzeRunsOptions as t };
-//# sourceMappingURL=analyze-runs-BmX-h_yn.d.ts.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=analyze-runs-BClW9OSe.d.ts.map

package/dist/{analyze-runs-BmX-h_yn.d.ts.map → analyze-runs-BClW9OSe.d.ts.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"analyze-runs-BmX-h_yn.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;UAmEiB;;EAEf,MAAM;;;EAGN;;;;;EAKA;EACA;;;EAGA,kBAAkB;;;EAGlB,UAAU;;;;EAIV;IACE;IACA,cAAc;;;;;EAKhB,cAAc;IAAQ;IAAe;IAAe;;;EAEpD;;;;EAIA;;;;;;;;;EASA,eAAe;;;EAGf;;UAGe;EACf,MAAM;EACN;;UAGe;EACf,WAAW;EACX,gBAAgB;;;iBAIF,mBAAmB,MAAM,4BAA4B;iBAS/C,YAAY,MAAM,qBAAqB,QAAQ"}
+{"version":3,"file":"analyze-runs-BClW9OSe.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;UAoEiB;;EAEf,MAAM;;;EAGN;;;;;EAKA;EACA;;;EAGA,kBAAkB;;;EAGlB,UAAU;;;;EAIV;IACE;IACA,cAAc;;;;;EAKhB,cAAc;IAAQ;IAAe;IAAe;;;EAEpD;;;;EAIA;;;;;;;;;EASA,eAAe;;;EAGf;;UAGe;EACf,MAAM;EACN;;UAGe;EACf,WAAW;EACX,gBAAgB;;;iBAIF,mBAAmB,MAAM,4BAA4B;iBAS/C,YAAY,MAAM,qBAAqB,QAAQ"}

package/dist/{analyze-runs-B-afTpCv.js → analyze-runs-qk8op0tN.js}

@@ -1,9 +1,10 @@
-import { A as spearmanR, C as pairedTTest, E as pearsonR, I as normalCdf, O as requiredPairedSampleSize, b as pairedMde, v as pairedBootstrap, y as pairedCohensDz, z as continuousAgreement } from "./statistics-DWM_AyLe.js";
-import { r as pairRunRecords } from "./paired-arms-6XItKzd1.js";
+import { C as pairedBootstrap, F as spearmanR, G as continuousAgreement, N as requiredPairedSampleSize, O as pairedTTest, T as pairedMde, j as pearsonR, w as pairedCohensDz } from "./statistics-RwRNu2__.js";
+import { r as pairRunRecords } from "./paired-arms-CA_8pN01.js";
 import { r as observedSplitScore } from "./reward-nw2xZGZG.js";
 import { s as validateRunRecord } from "./run-record-BIwU2wdV.js";
+import { r as welchsTTest } from "./baseline-BaPxoROc.js";
 import { o as llmSpans } from "./query-Di7eEQ79.js";
-import { r as paretoChart } from "./summary-report-Ci17nIdU.js";
+import { r as paretoChart } from "./summary-report-BxtossFi.js";
 //#region src/contamination-guard.ts
 function checkCanaries(output, scenarios) {
 	const leaks = [];
@@ -469,7 +470,12 @@ function computePriorPeriodComparison(current, baseline, split, windowLabel) {
 	}
 	const regressedMetrics = [];
 	const improvedMetrics = [];
+	const inconclusiveMetrics = [];
 	for (const [name, delta] of Object.entries(metrics)) {
+		if (delta.status !== "ok") {
+			inconclusiveMetrics.push(name);
+			continue;
+		}
 		if (!delta.significant) continue;
 		if ((directions[name] ?? "higher-is-better") === "higher-is-better" ? delta.delta > 0 : delta.delta < 0) improvedMetrics.push(name);
 		else regressedMetrics.push(name);
@@ -480,7 +486,8 @@ function computePriorPeriodComparison(current, baseline, split, windowLabel) {
 		...windowLabel ? { windowLabel } : {},
 		metrics,
 		regressedMetrics,
-		improvedMetrics
+		improvedMetrics,
+		inconclusiveMetrics
 	};
 }
 function knownCostValues(runs) {
@@ -503,41 +510,33 @@ function collectPerDimension(runs) {
 	}
 	return out;
 }
-/** Two-sample Welch comparison: unequal-variance t-test + CI on the delta
-*  + Cohen's d (pooled stddev). Significance = p < 0.05 AND |d| >= 0.2. */
+/** Adapt the shared two-sample Welch result to the report contract. */
 function welchCompare(baseline, current) {
-	const baselineMean = mean(baseline);
-	const currentMean = mean(current);
-	const baselineVar = sampleVariance(baseline, baselineMean);
-	const currentVar = sampleVariance(current, currentMean);
-	const baselineN = baseline.length;
-	const currentN = current.length;
-	const delta = currentMean - baselineMean;
-	const se = Math.sqrt(baselineVar / baselineN + currentVar / currentN);
-	const halfWidth = 1.96 * (se > 0 ? se : 0);
-	const ci95 = [delta - halfWidth, delta + halfWidth];
-	const t = se > 0 ? delta / se : 0;
-	const pValue = se > 0 ? 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.abs(t))) : 1;
-	const pooledStddev = Math.sqrt(((baselineN - 1) * baselineVar + (currentN - 1) * currentVar) / Math.max(1, baselineN + currentN - 2));
-	const cohensD = pooledStddev > 0 ? delta / pooledStddev : 0;
+	const result = welchsTTest(baseline, current);
+	const base = {
+		current: result.meanB,
+		baseline: result.meanA,
+		delta: result.delta,
+		baselineN: baseline.length,
+		currentN: current.length
+	};
+	if (result.status !== "ok") return {
+		...base,
+		status: result.status,
+		ci95: null,
+		pValue: null,
+		cohensD: null,
+		significant: false
+	};
 	return {
-		current: currentMean,
-		baseline: baselineMean,
-		delta,
-		ci95,
-		pValue,
-		cohensD,
-		baselineN,
-		currentN,
-		significant: pValue < .05 && Math.abs(cohensD) >= .2
+		...base,
+		status: "ok",
+		ci95: result.ci95,
+		pValue: result.p,
+		cohensD: result.cohensD,
+		significant: result.p < .05 && Math.abs(result.cohensD) >= .2
 	};
 }
-function sampleVariance(xs, xsMean) {
-	if (xs.length < 2) return 0;
-	let s = 0;
-	for (const x of xs) s += (x - xsMean) ** 2;
-	return s / (xs.length - 1);
-}
 function resolveSplit(runs, pref) {
 	if (pref !== "auto") return pref;
 	return runs.some((r) => Number.isFinite(observedSplitScore(r, "holdout"))) ? "holdout" : "search";
@@ -769,6 +768,8 @@ function computeLift(runs, baselineId, candidateId, split) {
 		ci95: [bootstrap.low, bootstrap.high],
 		pValue: tTest.p,
 		n: pairedBaseline.length,
+		minimumRequired: 20,
+		decisionEligible: bootstrap.gateEligible,
 		unpairedBaseline: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length,
 		unpairedCandidate: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,
 		cohensD: d,
@@ -893,11 +894,11 @@ function computeOutcomeCorrelation(runs, outcome, split) {
 }
 function buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination) {
 	const axes = [];
-	const liftPass = lift === void 0 ? "not_evaluated" : lift.ci95[0] > 0 ? "pass" : lift.delta > 0 ? "warn" : "fail";
+	const liftPass = lift === void 0 ? "not_evaluated" : !lift.decisionEligible ? "not_evaluated" : lift.ci95[0] > 0 ? "pass" : lift.delta > 0 ? "warn" : "fail";
 	axes.push({
 		name: "quality-lift",
 		status: liftPass,
-		detail: lift ? `delta=${lift.delta.toFixed(3)}, CI95=[${lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], n=${lift.n}` : "no baseline/candidate pair available"
+		detail: lift ? `delta=${lift.delta.toFixed(3)}, CI95=[${lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], n=${lift.n}${lift.decisionEligible ? "" : ` (descriptive only; ${lift.minimumRequired} required)`}` : "no baseline/candidate pair available"
 	});
 	const contamPass = contamination === void 0 ? "not_evaluated" : contamination.leaks === 0 ? "pass" : "fail";
 	axes.push({
@@ -927,7 +928,7 @@ function buildRecommendations(ctx) {
 		const label = ppc.windowLabel ?? "baseline period";
 		for (const name of ppc.regressedMetrics) {
 			const d = ppc.metrics[name];
-			if (!d) continue;
+			if (d?.status !== "ok") continue;
 			out.push({
 				priority: "critical",
 				kind: "investigate",
@@ -938,7 +939,7 @@ function buildRecommendations(ctx) {
 		}
 		for (const name of ppc.improvedMetrics) {
 			const d = ppc.metrics[name];
-			if (!d) continue;
+			if (d?.status !== "ok") continue;
 			out.push({
 				priority: "low",
 				kind: "ship",
@@ -947,6 +948,18 @@ function buildRecommendations(ctx) {
 				evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`
 			});
 		}
+		for (const name of ppc.inconclusiveMetrics) {
+			const d = ppc.metrics[name];
+			if (!d || d.status === "ok" || d.delta === 0) continue;
+			const reason = d.status === "zero-variance" ? "both periods have zero observed variance" : "one or both periods have fewer than two observations";
+			out.push({
+				priority: "high",
+				kind: "investigate",
+				title: `${name} changed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}; inference unavailable`,
+				detail: `Observed delta ${d.delta.toFixed(3)} across n_current=${d.currentN} and n_baseline=${d.baselineN}, but ${reason}. The report does not fabricate a p-value, confidence interval, or effect size; inspect independence and data capture before acting.`,
+				evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`
+			});
+		}
 	}
 	if (ctx.composite.n > 0 && ctx.composite.mean !== null && ctx.composite.p50 !== null && ctx.composite.p95 !== null) {
 		if (ctx.composite.mean < .3) {
@@ -988,8 +1001,16 @@ function buildRecommendations(ctx) {
 		detail: "Records have no `outcome.judgeScores`. To unlock perDimension, judges, and calibration, attach a Judge run during your eval pass and populate `outcome.judgeScores.perJudge[judgeName][dimension] = score`. See `docs/insight-report.md` for the expected shape.",
 		evidencePath: "judges"
 	});
-	if (ctx.lift) {
+	if (ctx.lift) if (!ctx.lift.decisionEligible) out.push({
+		priority: "high",
+		kind: "expand-corpus",
+		title: `Inconclusive — ${ctx.lift.n} paired runs; ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} required`,
+		detail: `The bootstrap interval is descriptive below ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} paired observations and cannot support a ship decision.`,
+		evidencePath: "lift"
+	});
+	else {
 		const pairedEffect = ctx.lift.cohensD === null ? "undefined (zero delta variance)" : ctx.lift.cohensD.toFixed(2);
+		const pairedP = ctx.lift.pValue === null ? "undefined (zero delta variance)" : ctx.lift.pValue.toFixed(4);
 		const requiredRuns = ctx.lift.requiredN === null ? "not estimable" : `~${ctx.lift.requiredN} paired runs`;
 		const decisive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] > ctx.threshold;
 		const inconclusive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] <= ctx.threshold && ctx.lift.ci95[1] > ctx.threshold;
@@ -997,7 +1018,7 @@ function buildRecommendations(ctx) {
 			priority: "critical",
 			kind: "ship",
 			title: `Ship — lift ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)} (95% CI ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}..${ctx.lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)})`,
-			detail: `Holdout lift exceeds threshold ${ctx.threshold} with 95% bootstrap confidence (n=${ctx.lift.n}, p=${ctx.lift.pValue.toFixed(4)}, paired d=${pairedEffect}).`,
+			detail: `Holdout lift exceeds threshold ${ctx.threshold} with 95% bootstrap confidence (n=${ctx.lift.n}, p=${pairedP}, paired d=${pairedEffect}).`,
 			evidencePath: "lift"
 		});
 		else if (inconclusive) out.push({
@@ -1051,4 +1072,4 @@ function buildRecommendations(ctx) {
 //#endregion
 export { checkBehavioralCanary as a, canaryLeakView as i, summarizeExecution as n, checkCanaries as o, HoldoutAuditor as r, runBehavioralCanaries as s, analyzeRuns as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=analyze-runs-B-afTpCv.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=analyze-runs-qk8op0tN.js.map

package/dist/analyze-runs-qk8op0tN.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"analyze-runs-qk8op0tN.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/contamination-guard.ts","../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * ContaminationGuard — ensures held-out scenarios don't leak into\n * training/prompt paths, and flags model memorization.\n *\n * Three probes:\n *   1. `checkCanaries(output, scenario)` — if the scenario carries a\n *      canary token, it MUST NOT appear in the agent's output.\n *      Canaries are strings that are statistically impossible to\n *      reconstruct from the scenario description alone — so if they\n *      echo back, the model memorized them.\n *   2. `canaryLeakView(store)` — cross-corpus view of every run whose\n *      output contained a canary, with the offending scenario + run.\n *   3. `HoldoutAuditor` — wraps a Dataset and emits a structured error\n *      on any code path that reads holdout scenarios but doesn't flag\n *      `purpose: 'evaluation'`. Keeps engineers honest.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from './dataset'\nimport { llmSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface CanaryLeak {\n  scenarioId: string\n  canary: string\n  runId?: string\n  evidence: string\n}\n\nexport function checkCanaries(output: string, scenarios: DatasetScenario[]): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const s of scenarios) {\n    if (!s.canary) continue\n    if (output.includes(s.canary)) {\n      leaks.push({ scenarioId: s.id, canary: s.canary, evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary) })\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary: tests the AGENT, not the eval grep.\n *\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` PRESENT in output ⇒ AGENT EMITTED BAD CONTENT ⇒ LEAK.\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` ABSENT from output ⇒ AGENT HELD THE LINE       ⇒ PASS.\n *\n * Use when running known-bad-prompt scenarios against the agent under\n * test and you want to know if the agent misbehaved. The classical\n * {@link checkCanaries} / {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries}\n * test whether the eval check fires when the bad output is forced\n * into the eval flow — different question, different answer.\n *\n * Pattern resolution order (first match wins):\n *   1. `scenario.forbiddenPattern` — if it parses as `/body/flags`,\n *      treated as a regex; otherwise a literal substring.\n *   2. `scenario.canary` — literal substring fallback so the helper\n *      works on existing scenario fixtures.\n *\n * Returns `null` when nothing forbidden was found OR the scenario\n * declared no pattern.\n */\nexport function checkBehavioralCanary(\n  output: string,\n  scenario: DatasetScenario,\n): CanaryLeak | null {\n  const pattern = scenario.forbiddenPattern ?? scenario.canary\n  if (!pattern) return null\n  const hit = matchForbidden(output, pattern)\n  if (!hit) return null\n  return {\n    scenarioId: scenario.id,\n    canary: pattern,\n    evidence: excerpt(output, hit),\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary over many (scenario, output) pairs. Sibling to\n * {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries} — same idea\n * (run-many → report) but the question being answered is \"did the\n * AGENT misbehave?\" rather than \"did the EVAL grep fire?\".\n *\n * Returns one `CanaryLeak` per pair where the agent's output\n * contained its scenario's `forbiddenPattern` (or `canary` fallback).\n */\nexport function runBehavioralCanaries(\n  cases: Array<{ scenario: DatasetScenario; output: string; runId?: string }>,\n): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const c of cases) {\n    const leak = checkBehavioralCanary(c.output, c.scenario)\n    if (leak) leaks.push({ ...leak, runId: c.runId ?? leak.runId })\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Resolve a forbidden-pattern string to the matched substring inside\n * `output`. `/body/flags` notation is interpreted as a regex; anything\n * else is a literal substring.\n */\nfunction matchForbidden(output: string, pattern: string): string | null {\n  const re = tryParseRegex(pattern)\n  if (re) {\n    const m = output.match(re)\n    return m && m[0].length > 0 ? m[0] : null\n  }\n  return output.includes(pattern) ? pattern : null\n}\n\nfunction tryParseRegex(pattern: string): RegExp | null {\n  if (pattern.length < 2 || pattern[0] !== '/') return null\n  const last = pattern.lastIndexOf('/')\n  if (last <= 0) return null\n  const body = pattern.slice(1, last)\n  const flags = pattern.slice(last + 1)\n  if (!/^[gimsuy]*$/.test(flags)) return null\n  try {\n    return new RegExp(body, flags)\n  } catch {\n    return null\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Scan the LLM-output history in a corpus; returns every case where a\n * canary from a known scenario appeared in agent output. Pass the full\n * set of scenarios whose canaries you care about (typically the whole\n * held-out slice).\n */\nexport async function canaryLeakView(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  scenarios: DatasetScenario[],\n): Promise<CanaryLeak[]> {\n  const targets = scenarios.filter((s) => !!s.canary)\n  if (targets.length === 0) return []\n  const spans = await llmSpans(store)\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const span of spans) {\n    const output = span.output ?? ''\n    for (const s of targets) {\n      if (s.canary && output.includes(s.canary)) {\n        leaks.push({\n          scenarioId: s.id,\n          canary: s.canary,\n          runId: span.runId,\n          evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary),\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\nexport class HoldoutAuditor {\n  private scenarios: DatasetScenario[]\n  private accessLog: Array<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> = []\n\n  constructor(scenarios: DatasetScenario[]) {\n    this.scenarios = scenarios\n  }\n\n  /** Retrieve a holdout scenario for a declared purpose. Non-'evaluation' throws. */\n  get(scenarioId: string, purpose: 'evaluation' | 'debugging'): DatasetScenario {\n    if (purpose !== 'evaluation' && purpose !== 'debugging') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `HoldoutAuditor.get: purpose must be 'evaluation' or 'debugging', got ${purpose}`,\n      )\n    }\n    const s = this.scenarios.find((x) => x.id === scenarioId)\n    if (!s) throw new Error(`holdout scenario \"${scenarioId}\" not found`)\n    this.accessLog.push({ scenarioId, purpose, at: Date.now() })\n    return s\n  }\n\n  getAccessLog(): ReadonlyArray<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> {\n    return this.accessLog\n  }\n}\n\nfunction excerpt(source: string, needle: string): string {\n  const at = source.indexOf(needle)\n  if (at < 0) return ''\n  const start = Math.max(0, at - 30)\n  const end = Math.min(source.length, at + needle.length + 30)\n  return (start > 0 ? '…' : '') + source.slice(start, end) + (end < source.length ? '…' : '')\n}\n","/**\n * # `analyzeRuns()` — turn a set of agent runs into an actionable decision packet.\n *\n * Wires the substrate's statistical, calibration, clustering, Pareto, and\n * release-confidence primitives into one `InsightReport`. Two top-level\n * entry points use this function:\n *\n *   - `selfImprove()` calls it on the campaign output to attach a packet\n *     to every run.\n *   - Consumers with observed `RunRecord[]` (production traces, gold\n *     corpora, approve/reject tables) call it directly via `analyzeRuns()`\n *     for analysis without a closed loop.\n *\n * Every section is opt-in based on what the input data supports — the\n * function never invents signal. If runs carry no judge scores, `judges`\n * is empty. If there's no baseline/candidate split, `lift` is undefined.\n * If no `analyst` is wired, `failureClusters` is undefined.\n *\n * The `recommendations` array is the human-readable layer; everything\n * else is the evidence backing each recommendation.\n */\n\nimport type { AnalystRegistry } from '../analyst/registry'\nimport type { AnalystFinding } from '../analyst/types'\nimport { welchsTTest } from '../baseline'\nimport { checkCanaries } from '../contamination-guard'\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from '../dataset'\nimport { continuousAgreement } from '../judge-calibration'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from '../paired-arms'\nimport { observedSplitScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport {\n  type RunRecord,\n  type RunTerminalOutcome,\n  type RunTokenUsage,\n  validateRunRecord,\n} from '../run-record'\nimport {\n  BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  pairedTTest,\n  pearsonR,\n  requiredPairedSampleSize,\n  spearmanR,\n} from '../statistics'\nimport { type ParetoFigureSpec, paretoChart } from '../summary-report'\nimport type { FailureClass } from '../trace/schema'\n\nimport type {\n  CostProvenanceSummary,\n  ExecutionInsight,\n  FailureClassTally,\n  FailureClusterInsight,\n  InsightReport,\n  InterRaterInsight,\n  JudgeInsight,\n  LiftInsight,\n  MetricDelta,\n  OutcomeCorrelationInsight,\n  PriorPeriodComparison,\n  Recommendation,\n  ScalarDistribution,\n  TokenUsageInsight,\n} from './insight-report'\n\n// ── Public API ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {\n  /** The runs to analyze. */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  /** Which split to score against when reading composite from RunOutcome.\n   *  Default: holdout when ANY run has a `holdoutScore`, else search. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto'\n  /** Pairwise analysis configuration. When both `baselineCandidateId` and\n   *  `candidateCandidateId` are present, lift is computed on paired\n   *  (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities shared between the two sides.\n   *  Unmatched rows remain visible in the lift result. */\n  baselineCandidateId?: string\n  candidateCandidateId?: string\n  /** Canary scenarios — checked against every run's raw output for\n   *  holdout contamination. */\n  canaryScenarios?: DatasetScenario[]\n  /** Analyst registry for failure clustering. When omitted, the\n   *  `failureClusters` section is left undefined. */\n  analyst?: AnalystRegistry\n  /** Downstream outcome metric per run (e.g. engagement rate, approval\n   *  rate, downstream pass rate). When present, the report includes\n   *  `outcomeCorrelation` + a simple linear reward model fit. */\n  outcomeSignal?: {\n    metric: string\n    valueByRunId: Record<string, number>\n  }\n  /** Multi-rater feedback for inter-rater agreement. Each entry is one\n   *  rater's score for one run. Two or more raters → kappa + disagreement\n   *  triage list. */\n  raterScores?: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>\n  /** Number of histogram bins for distributional summaries. Default 12. */\n  histogramBins?: number\n  /** Decision threshold — the smallest composite lift the caller cares\n   *  about. Used by the recommendations engine to call ship vs hold.\n   *  Default 0.02. */\n  decisionThreshold?: number\n  /** Optional prior-period runs. When set, the report includes\n   *  `priorPeriodComparison` with per-metric Welch-CI deltas and\n   *  recommendations fire on statistically significant regressions.\n   *  The two windows do NOT have to share scenarios — the comparison\n   *  is two-sample unpaired (the substrate's `lift` field uses paired\n   *  bootstrap on shared (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities; this is the\n   *  shape for \"this week vs last week\" rather than \"candidate vs\n   *  baseline within a campaign\"). */\n  baselineRuns?: RunRecord[]\n  /** Human-readable label for the baseline window, e.g. \"vs prior 7\n   *  days\", \"vs v3.1 release\". Surfaces in recommendations + UI. */\n  baselineLabel?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SummarizeExecutionOptions {\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  histogramBins?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ExecutionReport {\n  execution: ExecutionInsight\n  costProvenance: CostProvenanceSummary\n}\n\n/** Summarize runtime facts without interpreting task quality or promotion readiness. */\nexport function summarizeExecution(opts: SummarizeExecutionOptions): ExecutionReport {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  return {\n    execution: computeExecutionInsight(runs, bins),\n    costProvenance: summarizeCostProvenance(runs),\n  }\n}\n\nexport async function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport> {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  const threshold = opts.decisionThreshold ?? 0.02\n  const split = resolveSplit(runs, opts.split ?? 'auto')\n\n  const compositeWithIds = runs\n    .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, score: compositeOf(r, split) }))\n    .filter((p) => Number.isFinite(p.score))\n  const composite = distributionOf(\n    compositeWithIds.map((p) => p.score),\n    bins,\n    compositeWithIds,\n  )\n\n  const perDimension = computePerDimension(runs, bins)\n  const { execution, costProvenance: provenance } = summarizeExecution({\n    runs,\n    histogramBins: bins,\n  })\n  const knownCostRuns = runs.filter((run) => run.costProvenance.kind !== 'uncaptured')\n  const costs = knownCostRuns.map((r) => r.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const costDist = distributionOf(costs, bins)\n  const pareto = paretoChart(knownCostRuns, { split })\n  const degraded: { cost?: string; pareto?: string } = {}\n  if (provenance.uncaptured.n > 0) {\n    degraded.cost = diagnoseCostCoverage(runs, provenance)\n  } else if (costs.length === 0 || costs.every((c) => c === 0)) {\n    degraded.cost = `all ${runs.length} explicitly observed or estimated USD values are $0`\n  }\n  if (pareto.points.length < 2) {\n    degraded.pareto =\n      pareto.points.length === 0\n        ? 'no candidates — Pareto unavailable'\n        : 'single candidate — Pareto is a single point, not a frontier'\n  }\n  const costQuality = {\n    cost: costDist,\n    pareto,\n    provenance,\n    ...(degraded.cost || degraded.pareto ? { degraded } : {}),\n  }\n\n  const judges = computeJudgeInsights(runs)\n\n  const interRater = opts.raterScores ? computeInterRater(opts.raterScores) : undefined\n\n  const lift = computeLift(runs, opts.baselineCandidateId, opts.candidateCandidateId, split)\n\n  const failureClusters = opts.analyst\n    ? await computeFailureClusters(runs, opts.analyst, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const failureClasses = computeFailureClasses(runs, split)\n\n  const contamination = opts.canaryScenarios\n    ? computeContamination(runs, opts.canaryScenarios)\n    : undefined\n\n  const outcomeCorrelation = opts.outcomeSignal\n    ? computeOutcomeCorrelation(runs, opts.outcomeSignal, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const release = buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination)\n\n  const priorPeriodComparison = opts.baselineRuns\n    ? computePriorPeriodComparison(runs, opts.baselineRuns, split, opts.baselineLabel)\n    : undefined\n\n  const recommendations = buildRecommendations({\n    composite,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    failureClasses,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    priorPeriodComparison,\n    threshold,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    n: runs.length,\n    execution,\n    composite,\n    perDimension,\n    costQuality,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    release,\n    ...(failureClasses ? { failureClasses } : {}),\n    ...(priorPeriodComparison ? { priorPeriodComparison } : {}),\n    recommendations,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction computeExecutionInsight(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): ExecutionInsight {\n  const aggregateRows = runs.flatMap((run) => {\n    const usage = aggregateTokenUsage(run)\n    return usage ? [{ usage, costUsd: finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cost_usd') }] : []\n  })\n  const aggregateCosts = aggregateRows.flatMap((row) =>\n    row.costUsd !== undefined ? [row.costUsd] : [],\n  )\n  const modelCounts = new Map<string, number>()\n  let executionErrorRuns = 0\n  let executionErrorEvents = 0\n  let errorReportingRuns = 0\n  let errorSpanEvents = 0\n  let errorSpanReportingRuns = 0\n  const terminalOutcomes: Record<RunTerminalOutcome, number> = {\n    succeeded: 0,\n    failed: 0,\n    cancelled: 0,\n    incomplete: 0,\n    unknown: 0,\n  }\n  const errorsByTerminalOutcome: ExecutionInsight['executionErrors']['byTerminalOutcome'] = {\n    succeeded: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    failed: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    cancelled: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    incomplete: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    unknown: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n  }\n  let modelCallRuns = 0\n  let modelCallEvents = 0\n  let modelCallReportingRuns = 0\n\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    modelCounts.set(run.model, (modelCounts.get(run.model) ?? 0) + 1)\n    const terminalOutcome = run.terminalOutcome\n    terminalOutcomes[terminalOutcome] += 1\n    const modelCalls = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'llm_span_count')\n    if (modelCalls !== undefined) {\n      modelCallEvents += modelCalls\n      modelCallReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n    const usage = run.tokenUsage\n    if (\n      (modelCalls ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      usage.input > 0 ||\n      usage.output > 0 ||\n      (usage.cached ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      (usage.cacheWrite ?? 0) > 0\n    ) {\n      modelCallRuns += 1\n    }\n    const errorEvents = reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run)\n    if (errorEvents !== undefined) {\n      executionErrorEvents += errorEvents\n      errorReportingRuns += 1\n      if (errorEvents > 0) {\n        executionErrorRuns += 1\n        errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withErrors += 1\n      } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withoutErrors += 1\n    } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].unreported += 1\n    const reportedErrorSpans = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'error_span_count')\n    if (reportedErrorSpans !== undefined) {\n      errorSpanEvents += reportedErrorSpans\n      errorSpanReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    durationMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.map((run) => run.wallMs),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    queueMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.queueMs !== undefined).map((run) => run.queueMs!),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n      runs.map((run) => run.tokenUsage),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    aggregateUsage: {\n      runs: aggregateRows.length,\n      tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n        aggregateRows.map((row) => row.usage),\n        bins,\n      ),\n      costUsd: distributionOf(aggregateCosts, bins),\n      totalCostUsd: aggregateCosts.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n    models: [...modelCounts.entries()]\n      .map(([model, count]) => ({ model, runs: count }))\n      .sort((left, right) => right.runs - left.runs || left.model.localeCompare(right.model)),\n    modelCalls: {\n      runs: modelCallRuns,\n      events: modelCallEvents,\n      reportingRuns: modelCallReportingRuns,\n    },\n    executionErrors: {\n      runs: executionErrorRuns,\n      fraction: errorReportingRuns > 0 ? executionErrorRuns / errorReportingRuns : null,\n      events: executionErrorEvents,\n      reportingRuns: errorReportingRuns,\n      errorSpanEvents,\n      errorSpanReportingRuns,\n      byTerminalOutcome: errorsByTerminalOutcome,\n    },\n    terminalOutcomes,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run: RunRecord): number | undefined {\n  return nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'execution_error_count')\n}\n\nfunction nonNegativeCountRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = finiteRaw(run, key)\n  return value !== undefined && Number.isInteger(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeTokenUsage(usages: RunTokenUsage[], bins: number): TokenUsageInsight {\n  const reasoning = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.reasoning !== undefined ? [usage.reasoning] : [],\n  )\n  const cached = usages.flatMap((usage) => (usage.cached !== undefined ? [usage.cached] : []))\n  const cacheWrite = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.cacheWrite !== undefined ? [usage.cacheWrite] : [],\n  )\n  return {\n    input: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.input),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    output: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.output),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    reasoning: distributionOf(reasoning, bins),\n    cached: distributionOf(cached, bins),\n    cacheWrite: distributionOf(cacheWrite, bins),\n    totals: {\n      input: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.input, 0),\n      output: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.output, 0),\n      reasoning: reasoning.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cached: cached.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cacheWrite: cacheWrite.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction aggregateTokenUsage(run: RunRecord): RunTokenUsage | undefined {\n  const input = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_prompt_tokens')\n  const output = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_completion_tokens')\n  const reasoning = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_reasoning_tokens')\n  const cached = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cached_tokens')\n  const cacheWrite = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cache_write_tokens')\n  if (\n    input === undefined &&\n    output === undefined &&\n    reasoning === undefined &&\n    cached === undefined &&\n    cacheWrite === undefined\n  )\n    return undefined\n  return {\n    input: input ?? 0,\n    output: output ?? 0,\n    ...(reasoning !== undefined ? { reasoning } : {}),\n    ...(cached !== undefined ? { cached } : {}),\n    ...(cacheWrite !== undefined ? { cacheWrite } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction finiteRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = run.outcome.raw[key]\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeCostProvenance(runs: RunRecord[]): CostProvenanceSummary {\n  const summary: CostProvenanceSummary = {\n    observed: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    estimated: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    uncaptured: { n: 0 },\n    knownFraction: 0,\n  }\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const cost = run.costProvenance\n    if (cost.kind === 'uncaptured') {\n      summary.uncaptured.n += 1\n    } else {\n      summary[cost.kind].n += 1\n      summary[cost.kind].totalUsd += cost.usd\n    }\n  }\n  const known = summary.observed.n + summary.estimated.n\n  summary.knownFraction = runs.length > 0 ? known / runs.length : 0\n  return summary\n}\n\nfunction diagnoseCostCoverage(runs: RunRecord[], provenance: CostProvenanceSummary): string {\n  const uncaptured = provenance.uncaptured.n\n  const known = provenance.observed.n + provenance.estimated.n\n  if (uncaptured === runs.length) {\n    return `USD cost uncaptured for all ${runs.length} runs — no observed or estimated USD values; token and wall-time metrics remain available.`\n  }\n  return `USD cost uncaptured for ${uncaptured}/${runs.length} runs; excluded those rows from cost statistics (${known}/${runs.length} retained: ${provenance.observed.n} observed, ${provenance.estimated.n} estimated).`\n}\n\n/**\n * Model-free task-failure tally.\n *\n * Explicit non-success classes are task-failure evidence.\n * A low task score without a class is counted as `unknown`.\n */\nfunction computeFailureClasses(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): FailureClassTally[] | undefined {\n  const counts = new Map<FailureClass, number>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (!isTaskFailure(r, split)) continue\n    const key =\n      r.failureClass !== undefined && r.failureClass !== 'success' ? r.failureClass : 'unknown'\n    counts.set(key, (counts.get(key) ?? 0) + 1)\n  }\n  if (counts.size === 0) return undefined\n  const n = runs.length\n  return [...counts.entries()]\n    .map(([failureClass, count]) => ({\n      failureClass,\n      count,\n      share: n > 0 ? count / n : 0,\n    }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.count - a.count || a.failureClass.localeCompare(b.failureClass))\n}\n\n// ── Prior-period comparison ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Direction of the metric — does \"higher current\" mean better or worse?\n *  Composite + judge dimensions: higher is better. Cost + duration: lower\n *  is better. The recommendations engine flips the sign before judging\n *  regressed vs improved. */\ntype MetricDirection = 'higher-is-better' | 'lower-is-better'\n\nfunction computePriorPeriodComparison(\n  current: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  windowLabel: string | undefined,\n): PriorPeriodComparison | undefined {\n  if (current.length === 0 || baseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const metrics: Record<string, MetricDelta> = {}\n  const directions: Record<string, MetricDirection> = {}\n\n  const compositeCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  const compositeBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  if (compositeCurrent.length > 0 && compositeBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.composite = welchCompare(compositeBaseline, compositeCurrent)\n    directions.composite = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const costCurrent = knownCostValues(current)\n  const costBaseline = knownCostValues(baseline)\n  if (costCurrent.length > 0 && costBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.cost = welchCompare(costBaseline, costCurrent)\n    directions.cost = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const durCurrent = current.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const durBaseline = baseline.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (durCurrent.length > 0 && durBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.duration = welchCompare(durBaseline, durCurrent)\n    directions.duration = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const tokCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const tokBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (tokCurrent.length > 0 && tokBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.tokenUsage = welchCompare(tokBaseline, tokCurrent)\n    directions.tokenUsage = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  // Per-dimension judge comparisons — only for dimensions present in BOTH\n  // windows. We use perDimMean since per-judge nesting is finicky for\n  // two-sample comparisons across different judge configurations.\n  const dimsCurrent = collectPerDimension(current)\n  const dimsBaseline = collectPerDimension(baseline)\n  for (const dim of Object.keys(dimsCurrent)) {\n    const b = dimsBaseline[dim]\n    const c = dimsCurrent[dim]\n    if (!b || b.length === 0 || !c || c.length === 0) continue\n    metrics[`dim.${dim}`] = welchCompare(b, c)\n    directions[`dim.${dim}`] = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const regressedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const improvedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const inconclusiveMetrics: string[] = []\n  for (const [name, delta] of Object.entries(metrics)) {\n    if (delta.status !== 'ok') {\n      inconclusiveMetrics.push(name)\n      continue\n    }\n    if (!delta.significant) continue\n    const dir = directions[name] ?? 'higher-is-better'\n    const better = dir === 'higher-is-better' ? delta.delta > 0 : delta.delta < 0\n    if (better) improvedMetrics.push(name)\n    else regressedMetrics.push(name)\n  }\n\n  return {\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n    ...(windowLabel ? { windowLabel } : {}),\n    metrics,\n    regressedMetrics,\n    improvedMetrics,\n    inconclusiveMetrics,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction knownCostValues(runs: RunRecord[]): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => run.costProvenance.kind !== 'uncaptured')\n    .map((run) => run.costUsd)\n    .filter(isFiniteNumber)\n}\n\nfunction isFiniteNumber(value: unknown): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\n/** Collect per-dimension values across runs (from outcome.judgeScores.perDimMean). */\nfunction collectPerDimension(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, number[]> {\n  const out: Record<string, number[]> = {}\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    const perDim = r.outcome.judgeScores?.perDimMean\n    if (!perDim) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(perDim)) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      if (!out[dim]) out[dim] = []\n      out[dim].push(value as number)\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Adapt the shared two-sample Welch result to the report contract. */\nfunction welchCompare(baseline: number[], current: number[]): MetricDelta {\n  const result = welchsTTest(baseline, current)\n  const base = {\n    current: result.meanB,\n    baseline: result.meanA,\n    delta: result.delta,\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n  }\n  if (result.status !== 'ok') {\n    return {\n      ...base,\n      status: result.status,\n      ci95: null,\n      pValue: null,\n      cohensD: null,\n      significant: false,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    ...base,\n    status: 'ok',\n    ci95: result.ci95,\n    pValue: result.p,\n    cohensD: result.cohensD,\n    significant: result.p < 0.05 && Math.abs(result.cohensD) >= 0.2,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Composite + split selection ─────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction resolveSplit(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  pref: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto',\n): 'search' | 'holdout' {\n  if (pref !== 'auto') return pref\n  const hasHoldout = runs.some((r) => Number.isFinite(observedSplitScore(r, 'holdout')))\n  return hasHoldout ? 'holdout' : 'search'\n}\n\n/**\n * RAW (`observedSplitScore`): `analyzeRuns` describes what a set of runs\n * reported, and every downstream reader of this composite — distributions,\n * per-candidate summaries, the reward-hacking correlation — needs the ungated\n * number to see an inflated run at all.\n */\nfunction compositeOf(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number {\n  // Split-exact, no cross-split fallthrough: answering \"what did this run\n  // score on the split I am summarising\" with the other split's number\n  // silently mixes populations.\n  const score = observedSplitScore(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) ? (score as number) : Number.NaN\n}\n\n// ── Distribution helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction distributionOf(\n  values: number[],\n  bins: number,\n  withIds?: Array<{ runId: string; score: number }>,\n): ScalarDistribution {\n  if (values.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      n: 0,\n      mean: null,\n      p50: null,\n      p95: null,\n      stddev: null,\n      min: null,\n      max: null,\n      histogram: [],\n    }\n  }\n  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const n = sorted.length\n  const mean = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / n\n  const variance = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / n\n  const stddev = Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const tailRuns = withIds\n    ? [...withIds].sort((a, b) => a.score - b.score).slice(0, Math.min(5, withIds.length))\n    : undefined\n  return {\n    n,\n    mean,\n    p50: percentile(sorted, 0.5),\n    p95: percentile(sorted, 0.95),\n    stddev,\n    min: sorted[0]!,\n    max: sorted[n - 1]!,\n    histogram: histogram(sorted, bins),\n    ...(tailRuns ? { tailRuns } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction percentile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return 0\n  if (sorted.length === 1) return sorted[0]!\n  const idx = (sorted.length - 1) * q\n  const lo = Math.floor(idx)\n  const hi = Math.ceil(idx)\n  if (lo === hi) return sorted[lo]!\n  const w = idx - lo\n  return sorted[lo]! * (1 - w) + sorted[hi]! * w\n}\n\n/** Even-width histogram over the value range. Returns inclusive-lo /\n *  exclusive-hi bins (closed on right for the last bin) compatible with\n *  the substrate's `GainDistributionBin` shape. */\nfunction histogram(sorted: number[], bins: number): ScalarDistribution['histogram'] {\n  if (sorted.length === 0 || bins < 1) return []\n  const min = sorted[0]!\n  const max = sorted[sorted.length - 1]!\n  if (min === max) return [{ lo: min, hi: max, count: sorted.length }]\n  const width = (max - min) / bins\n  const out: ScalarDistribution['histogram'] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < bins; i++) {\n    const lo = min + i * width\n    const hi = i === bins - 1 ? max : lo + width\n    out.push({ lo, hi, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const v of sorted) {\n    const idx = Math.min(bins - 1, Math.floor((v - min) / width))\n    out[idx]!.count++\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction computePerDimension(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): Record<string, ScalarDistribution> {\n  // JudgeScoresRecord pre-aggregates `perDimMean` (mean across judges per\n  // dimension). We collect those means across runs to produce a per-dim\n  // distribution at the corpus level. Consumers who want per-judge\n  // dimension values reach into `perJudge[judgeId][dim]` themselves.\n  const byDim = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(scores.perDimMean ?? {})) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      const arr = byDim.get(dim) ?? []\n      arr.push(value)\n      byDim.set(dim, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, ScalarDistribution> = {}\n  for (const [dim, values] of byDim) out[dim] = distributionOf(values, bins)\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Judge insights ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeJudgeInsights(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, JudgeInsight> {\n  // Each judge's per-run mean is the average of its per-dimension scores\n  // for that run. We aggregate those means across all runs each judge\n  // scored — giving consumers a \"this judge's typical verdict\" reading.\n  const out: Record<string, JudgeInsight> = {}\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores?.perJudge) continue\n    for (const [judgeId, dims] of Object.entries(scores.perJudge)) {\n      const dimValues = Object.values(dims).filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n      if (dimValues.length === 0) continue\n      const judgeMean = dimValues.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / dimValues.length\n      const arr = byJudge.get(judgeId) ?? []\n      arr.push(judgeMean)\n      byJudge.set(judgeId, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  for (const [judgeId, values] of byJudge) {\n    out[judgeId] = {\n      n: values.length,\n      meanScore: values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length,\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Inter-rater agreement ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeInterRater(\n  ratings: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>,\n): InterRaterInsight | undefined {\n  const byRun = new Map<string, Array<{ rater: string; score: number }>>()\n  for (const r of ratings) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(r.score)) continue\n    const list = byRun.get(r.runId) ?? []\n    list.push({ rater: r.rater, score: r.score })\n    byRun.set(r.runId, list)\n  }\n  const raters = new Set(ratings.map((r) => r.rater))\n  const jointlyRated: string[] = []\n  for (const [runId, ratersForRun] of byRun) {\n    const seen = new Set(ratersForRun.map((r) => r.rater))\n    let all = true\n    for (const r of raters) if (!seen.has(r)) all = false\n    if (all) jointlyRated.push(runId)\n  }\n  if (raters.size < 2 || jointlyRated.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const raterList = [...raters].sort()\n  const perPair: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (let i = 0; i < raterList.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < raterList.length; j++) {\n      const a = raterList[i]!\n      const b = raterList[j]!\n      const aScores: number[] = []\n      const bScores: number[] = []\n      for (const runId of jointlyRated) {\n        const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n        const sa = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === a)?.score\n        const sb = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === b)?.score\n        if (sa !== undefined && sb !== undefined) {\n          aScores.push(sa)\n          bScores.push(sb)\n        }\n      }\n      const agreement = continuousAgreement(\n        aScores.map((score, index) => [score, bScores[index]!]),\n        { bootstrap: 0 },\n      )\n      perPair[`${a}::${b}`] = agreement.weightedKappa\n    }\n  }\n  const matrix = jointlyRated.map((runId) => {\n    const ratingsByRater = new Map(byRun.get(runId)!.map((rating) => [rating.rater, rating.score]))\n    return raterList.map((rater) => ratingsByRater.get(rater)!)\n  })\n  const agreement = continuousAgreement(matrix, { bootstrap: 0 })\n\n  const disagreementCases = jointlyRated\n    .map((runId) => {\n      const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n      const scores = ratersForRun.map((r) => r.score)\n      const range = Math.max(...scores) - Math.min(...scores)\n      return { runId, ratings: ratersForRun, range }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => b.range - a.range)\n    .slice(0, 20)\n\n  return {\n    raters: raters.size,\n    jointlyRated: jointlyRated.length,\n    kappa: Number.isFinite(agreement.weightedKappa) ? agreement.weightedKappa : 0,\n    icc: agreement.icc,\n    pearson: agreement.pearson,\n    spearman: agreement.spearman,\n    perPair,\n    disagreementCases,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Lift ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeLift(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  baselineId: string | undefined,\n  candidateId: string | undefined,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): LiftInsight | undefined {\n  let bId = baselineId\n  let cId = candidateId\n  if (!bId || !cId) {\n    // Auto-detect: when exactly two distinct candidateIds appear, treat the\n    // lower-mean side as baseline.\n    const ids = [...new Set(runs.map((r) => r.candidateId))]\n    if (ids.length !== 2) return undefined\n    const [idA, idB] = ids as [string, string]\n    const scoresA = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idA),\n      split,\n    )\n    const scoresB = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idB),\n      split,\n    )\n    if (scoresA.length === 0 || scoresB.length === 0) return undefined\n    const meanA = mean(scoresA)\n    const meanB = mean(scoresB)\n    bId = meanA <= meanB ? idA : idB\n    cId = meanA <= meanB ? idB : idA\n  }\n\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === bId)\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === cId)\n  if (baseline.length === 0 || candidate.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  const pairedBaseline = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.baseline, split))\n  const pairedCandidate = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.treatment, split))\n  if (pairedBaseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const baselineMean = mean(pairedBaseline)\n  const candidateMean = mean(pairedCandidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate, {\n    confidence: 0.95,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'mean',\n  })\n  const tTest = pairedTTest(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const d = pairedCohensDz(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const mde = pairedMde({ nPaired: pairedBaseline.length, power: 0.8, alpha: 0.05 })\n  const requiredN =\n    d === null || d === 0\n      ? null\n      : requiredPairedSampleSize({\n          effect: Math.abs(d),\n          power: 0.8,\n          alpha: 0.05,\n        })\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ci95: [bootstrap.low, bootstrap.high],\n    pValue: tTest.p,\n    n: pairedBaseline.length,\n    minimumRequired: BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n    decisionEligible: bootstrap.gateEligible,\n    unpairedBaseline: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length,\n    unpairedCandidate: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,\n    cohensD: d,\n    mde,\n    requiredN,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(arr: number[]): number {\n  return arr.length === 0 ? 0 : arr.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / arr.length\n}\n\n// ── Failure clustering ──────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nasync function computeFailureClusters(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  analyst: AnalystRegistry,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): Promise<FailureClusterInsight | undefined> {\n  const failed = runs.filter((run) => isTaskFailure(run, split))\n  if (failed.length === 0) return { clusters: [], totalFailures: 0 }\n\n  const clusters = new Map<string, { exemplars: string[]; share: number }>()\n  for (const run of failed) {\n    try {\n      // AnalystRunInputs routes by field name: run-record analysts read\n      // `runRecord`. Any other shape makes every analyst skip with\n      // \"missing input\" and the clusters come back silently empty.\n      const result = await analyst.run(run.runId, { runRecord: run })\n      for (const finding of result.findings as AnalystFinding[]) {\n        const key = finding.area || finding.analyst_id || 'unclassified'\n        const c = clusters.get(key) ?? { exemplars: [], share: 0 }\n        if (c.exemplars.length < 5) c.exemplars.push(run.runId)\n        clusters.set(key, c)\n      }\n    } catch {\n      const c = clusters.get('analyst-error') ?? { exemplars: [], share: 0 }\n      if (c.exemplars.length < 5) c.exemplars.push(run.runId)\n      clusters.set('analyst-error', c)\n    }\n  }\n  const clusterList = [...clusters.entries()].map(([id, c]) => ({\n    id,\n    name: id,\n    share: c.exemplars.length / failed.length,\n    exemplars: c.exemplars,\n  }))\n  clusterList.sort((a, b) => b.share - a.share)\n  return { clusters: clusterList, totalFailures: failed.length }\n}\n\nfunction finiteCompositeScores(runs: readonly RunRecord[], split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => compositeOf(run, split)).filter(Number.isFinite)\n}\n\nfunction isTaskFailure(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): boolean {\n  if (run.failureClass !== undefined && run.failureClass !== 'success') return true\n  const score = compositeOf(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) && score < 0.5\n}\n\n// ── Contamination ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeContamination(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  canaries: DatasetScenario[],\n): InsightReport['contamination'] {\n  let leaks = 0\n  const details: Array<{ runId: string; canary: string; matched: string }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const output = stringifyOutput(run)\n    if (!output) continue\n    const leaksHere = checkCanaries(output, canaries)\n    for (const leak of leaksHere) {\n      leaks++\n      details.push({ runId: run.runId, canary: leak.canary, matched: leak.evidence })\n    }\n  }\n  return { leaks, holdoutAuditPassed: leaks === 0, details }\n}\n\nfunction stringifyOutput(run: RunRecord): string | undefined {\n  // RunRecord doesn't fix where \"the agent's output\" lives — different\n  // consumers stash it differently. We probe the common shapes: the\n  // outcome.raw map (numeric only by design — unlikely to contain text),\n  // and any string-valued fields tucked under metadata via type casting.\n  // Consumers with bespoke shapes pass canaryScenarios only when they\n  // know their runs carry a stringifiable surface.\n  const metadata = (run as unknown as { metadata?: Record<string, unknown> }).metadata\n  if (typeof metadata?.output === 'string') return metadata.output\n  if (typeof metadata?.text === 'string') return metadata.text\n  return undefined\n}\n\n// ── Outcome correlation + linear reward model ──────────────────────\n\nfunction computeOutcomeCorrelation(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  outcome: { metric: string; valueByRunId: Record<string, number> },\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): OutcomeCorrelationInsight | undefined {\n  const xs: number[] = []\n  const ys: number[] = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const y = outcome.valueByRunId[run.runId]\n    if (y === undefined || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    const x = compositeOf(run, split)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    xs.push(x)\n    ys.push(y)\n  }\n  if (xs.length < 3) return undefined\n\n  const p = pearsonR(xs, ys)\n  const s = spearmanR(xs, ys)\n  const meanX = mean(xs)\n  const meanY = mean(ys)\n  let num = 0\n  let denom = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n    num += (xs[i]! - meanX) * (ys[i]! - meanY)\n    denom += (xs[i]! - meanX) ** 2\n  }\n  const slope = denom === 0 ? 0 : num / denom\n  const intercept = meanY - slope * meanX\n  const ssTot = ys.reduce((a, y) => a + (y - meanY) ** 2, 0)\n  const ssRes = ys.reduce((a, y, i) => a + (y - (intercept + slope * xs[i]!)) ** 2, 0)\n  const r2 = ssTot === 0 ? 0 : 1 - ssRes / ssTot\n\n  return {\n    metric: outcome.metric,\n    n: xs.length,\n    pearson: p,\n    spearman: s,\n    rewardModel: { intercept, slope, r2 },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Release confidence scorecard ───────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction buildReleaseScorecard(\n  composite: ScalarDistribution,\n  lift: LiftInsight | undefined,\n  contamination: InsightReport['contamination'],\n): InsightReport['release'] {\n  // Synthesise a minimal scorecard from the rolled-up signal. The\n  // substrate's `evaluateReleaseConfidence` primitive consumes a richer\n  // input shape that callers can produce by wiring SLO definitions; the\n  // shape here is the contract `selfImprove`/`analyzeRuns` consumers\n  // receive automatically. They can call `evaluateReleaseConfidence`\n  // directly when they want SLO-based axis evaluation.\n  const axes: InsightReport['release']['axes'] = []\n  const liftPass =\n    lift === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : !lift.decisionEligible\n        ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n        : lift.ci95[0] > 0\n          ? ('pass' as const)\n          : lift.delta > 0\n            ? ('warn' as const)\n            : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'quality-lift',\n    status: liftPass,\n    detail: lift\n      ? `delta=${lift.delta.toFixed(3)}, CI95=[${lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], n=${lift.n}${lift.decisionEligible ? '' : ` (descriptive only; ${lift.minimumRequired} required)`}`\n      : 'no baseline/candidate pair available',\n  })\n  const contamPass =\n    contamination === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : contamination.leaks === 0\n        ? ('pass' as const)\n        : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'contamination',\n    status: contamPass,\n    detail: contamination ? `${contamination.leaks} canary leak(s)` : 'no canaries supplied',\n  })\n  axes.push(\n    composite.n === 0\n      ? {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status: 'not_evaluated',\n          detail: 'no task-quality scores available',\n        }\n      : {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status:\n            composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.5\n              ? 'pass'\n              : composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.3\n                ? 'warn'\n                : 'fail',\n          detail:\n            composite.mean === null || composite.p50 === null || composite.p95 === null\n              ? 'task-quality distribution is internally incomplete'\n              : `mean=${composite.mean.toFixed(3)}, p50=${composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${composite.p95.toFixed(3)} over n=${composite.n}`,\n        },\n  )\n  const status = axes.some((a) => a.status === 'fail')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : axes.some((a) => a.status === 'warn' || a.status === 'not_evaluated')\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n  return {\n    status,\n    axes,\n    issues: [],\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Recommendations engine ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\ninterface RecommendationContext {\n  composite: ScalarDistribution\n  judges: Record<string, JudgeInsight>\n  interRater?: InterRaterInsight\n  lift?: LiftInsight\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterInsight\n  failureClasses?: FailureClassTally[]\n  contamination?: InsightReport['contamination']\n  outcomeCorrelation?: OutcomeCorrelationInsight\n  priorPeriodComparison?: PriorPeriodComparison\n  threshold: number\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendations(ctx: RecommendationContext): Recommendation[] {\n  const out: Recommendation[] = []\n\n  // Prior-period regressions — highest customer-impact signal when present.\n  // \"Did my last change help?\" with a falsifiable answer.\n  if (ctx.priorPeriodComparison) {\n    const ppc = ctx.priorPeriodComparison\n    const label = ppc.windowLabel ?? 'baseline period'\n    for (const name of ppc.regressedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} regressed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). The regression is statistically significant at p<0.05 with at-least-small effect size.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.improvedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'low',\n        kind: 'ship',\n        title: `${name} improved from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). Statistically significant improvement worth flagging.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.inconclusiveMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (!d || d.status === 'ok' || d.delta === 0) continue\n      const reason =\n        d.status === 'zero-variance'\n          ? 'both periods have zero observed variance'\n          : 'one or both periods have fewer than two observations'\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} changed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}; inference unavailable`,\n        detail: `Observed delta ${d.delta.toFixed(3)} across n_current=${d.currentN} and n_baseline=${d.baselineN}, but ${reason}. The report does not fabricate a p-value, confidence interval, or effect size; inspect independence and data capture before acting.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Composite-distribution branch. Fires when the overall quality signal is\n  // poor regardless of lift / contamination / clusters — the customer needs\n  // to know they have a problem AND which specific runs to inspect.\n  if (\n    ctx.composite.n > 0 &&\n    ctx.composite.mean !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p50 !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p95 !== null\n  ) {\n    if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.3) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 5)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below the 0.3 floor — the agent is broken on this corpus`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'} to inspect first: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    } else if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.5) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 3)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below 0.5 — investigate the lower tail before claiming the agent is healthy`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // A healthy-looking mean can hide a group of failed tasks sharing one\n  // producer-reported cause. This path does not require an analyst.\n  if (ctx.failureClasses && ctx.failureClasses.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClasses[0]!\n    if (top.count >= 3 && top.share >= 0.15) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: top.share >= 0.25 ? 'high' : 'medium',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `'${top.failureClass}' is the dominant failure class — ${top.count} runs (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of the corpus)`,\n        detail: `The mean composite can look acceptable while one failure class dominates the lower tail. ${top.count} of ${ctx.composite.n} runs failed with '${top.failureClass}'${ctx.failureClasses.length > 1 ? ` (next: '${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.failureClass}' ×${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.count})` : ''}. Fix this cause first.`,\n        evidencePath: 'failureClasses',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Missing-judges branch. The report can't surface per-dimension or\n  // calibration signal when `outcome.judgeScores` is empty across the\n  // corpus. Tell the customer how to enrich.\n  if (Object.keys(ctx.judges).length === 0 && ctx.composite.n > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'expand-corpus',\n      title: 'No judge scores recorded — per-dimension + calibration insights unavailable',\n      detail:\n        'Records have no `outcome.judgeScores`. To unlock perDimension, judges, and calibration, attach a Judge run during your eval pass and populate `outcome.judgeScores.perJudge[judgeName][dimension] = score`. See `docs/insight-report.md` for the expected shape.',\n      evidencePath: 'judges',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.lift) {\n    if (!ctx.lift.decisionEligible) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'expand-corpus',\n        title: `Inconclusive — ${ctx.lift.n} paired runs; ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} required`,\n        detail: `The bootstrap interval is descriptive below ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} paired observations and cannot support a ship decision.`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    } else {\n      const pairedEffect =\n        ctx.lift.cohensD === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.cohensD.toFixed(2)\n      const pairedP =\n        ctx.lift.pValue === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.pValue.toFixed(4)\n      const requiredRuns =\n        ctx.lift.requiredN === null ? 'not estimable' : `~${ctx.lift.requiredN} paired runs`\n      const decisive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] > ctx.threshold\n      const inconclusive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] <= ctx.threshold && ctx.lift.ci95[1] > ctx.threshold\n      if (decisive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'ship',\n          title: `Ship — lift ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)} (95% CI ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}..${ctx.lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)})`,\n          detail: `Holdout lift exceeds threshold ${ctx.threshold} with 95% bootstrap confidence (n=${ctx.lift.n}, p=${pairedP}, paired d=${pairedEffect}).`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else if (inconclusive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'high',\n          kind: 'expand-corpus',\n          title: `Inconclusive — required sample is ${requiredRuns} (have ${ctx.lift.n}) at current effect size`,\n          detail: `CI straddles threshold. Current MDE at 80% power is ${ctx.lift.mde.toFixed(3)}; observed delta is ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)}.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'hold',\n          title: `Hold — lift CI lower bound ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)} is at or below threshold ${ctx.threshold}`,\n          detail: `Bootstrap CI provides no statistical evidence the candidate is better. Consider tightening the mutation or expanding the holdout.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.contamination && ctx.contamination.leaks > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'critical',\n      kind: 'fix',\n      title: `${ctx.contamination.leaks} canary leak${ctx.contamination.leaks === 1 ? '' : 's'} detected`,\n      detail: `Holdout integrity is compromised. The lift number is unreliable until you investigate.`,\n      evidencePath: 'contamination',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.interRater && ctx.interRater.kappa < 0.5) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Inter-rater weighted kappa ${ctx.interRater.kappa.toFixed(2)} is below 0.5`,\n      detail:\n        'Raters disagree on what good looks like. Review the largest disagreement cases and refine the rubric before automating these decisions.',\n      evidencePath: 'interRater',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'investigate',\n      title: `Top failure cluster: ${top.name} (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of failures)`,\n      detail: `${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures} runs failed. The largest cluster groups ${top.exemplars.length} exemplars under '${top.name}'.`,\n      evidencePath: 'failureClusters.clusters[0]',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.outcomeCorrelation && Math.abs(ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman) < 0.3) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Judge scores decoupled from ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} (Spearman ρ=${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman.toFixed(2)})`,\n      detail: `Your judges score what they were trained to score, but it isn't predicting downstream ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric}. Consider retraining the judge against ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} as the gold signal.`,\n      evidencePath: 'outcomeCorrelation',\n    })\n  }\n\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Re-export pareto figure spec for hosted-side rendering ─────────\n\nexport type { ParetoFigureSpec 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