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@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.30 → 1.0.32

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-<title>Soft Commodity Trading — Ep 9: Vegetable oils and biofuels</title>
+<title>Soft Commodity Trading — Ep 10: Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering</title>
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-<div style="display:none;max-height:0;overflow:hidden;mso-hide:all;">Palm, soy, rape and sun trade as one system, and the spread between them is the switch that rations demand. Then biofuels: how a mandate turns a political decision into a standing bid for a crop, and why a fuel policy is always a protein policy.</div>
+<div style="display:none;max-height:0;overflow:hidden;mso-hide:all;">Why the smaller ship can be the expensive one, and why freight is the one leg of a hedged trade that stays open.</div>
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-<tr><td style="padding:30px 28px 24px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 6px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Soft Commodity Trading</p><p style="margin:0 0 14px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.14em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#8b8375;">Episode 09 · Thursday 20 August 2026 · 11 min 59</p><h1 style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:29px;line-height:1.2;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">Vegetable oils and biofuels</h1><p style="margin:0 0 22px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;color:#4a4238;">Palm, soy, rape and sun trade as one system, and the spread between them is the switch that rations demand. Then biofuels: how a mandate turns a political decision into a standing bid for a crop, and why a fuel policy is always a protein policy.</p><table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td bgcolor="#1d4032" style="border-radius:6px;"><a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep09.mp3" style="display:inline-block;padding:14px 28px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:15px;font-weight:bold;color:#faf7f1;text-decoration:none;border-radius:6px;">▶  Listen — 11 min</a></td></tr></table></td></tr>
-<tr><td style="padding:0 28px 22px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:1.6;color:#4a4238;"><a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep09.html" style="color:#1d4032;font-weight:bold;">Read this episode online &rarr;</a><span style="color:#8b8375;"> &nbsp;·&nbsp; charts, the quiz and the running glossary</span></p></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:30px 28px 24px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 6px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Soft Commodity Trading</p><p style="margin:0 0 14px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.14em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#8b8375;">Episode 10 · Friday 21 August 2026 · 12 min 35</p><h1 style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:29px;line-height:1.2;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering</h1><p style="margin:0 0 22px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;color:#4a4238;">Why the smaller ship can be the expensive one, and why freight is the one leg of a hedged trade that stays open.</p><table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td bgcolor="#1d4032" style="border-radius:6px;"><a href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily@1.0.31/ep10.mp3" style="display:inline-block;padding:14px 28px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:15px;font-weight:bold;color:#faf7f1;text-decoration:none;border-radius:6px;">▶  Listen — 12 min</a></td></tr></table></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:0 28px 22px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:1.6;color:#4a4238;"><a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10.html" style="color:#1d4032;font-weight:bold;">Read this episode online &rarr;</a><span style="color:#8b8375;"> &nbsp;·&nbsp; charts, the quiz and the running glossary</span></p></td></tr>
 <tr><td style="padding:0 28px;background:#faf7f1;"><table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td height="1" style="height:1px;line-height:1px;font-size:1px;background:#e3ddd2;">&nbsp;</td></tr></table></td></tr>
-<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Market pulse</p><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Everything in Chicago rallied, and the crusher still had a worse day than the day before.</strong></p>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Commodity</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Contract</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Price</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Change</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Corn</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">473 c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+9¾¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Corn</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Dec (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">498 c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+10¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Soybeans</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">1222¼ c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+21½¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Soybeans</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Nov (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">1237¾ c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+20½¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Soymeal</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">—</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+2.0%</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Soyoil</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">—</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+0.25%</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Wheat SRW</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">680¼ c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+15¾¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Wheat HRW</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (KC)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">762 c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+18¼¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Crude palm oil</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (BMD)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">RM 4,648/t</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+RM 32</span></td></tr></tbody></table>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Wednesday was a broad buying day, and the trigger was boots in fields. The Pro Farmer crop tour is walking the belt this week and the early scouting was reported as less than stellar. USDA still carries a corn yield of 180.7 bu/ac. After two days of the tour the trade has started to ask whether that is generous. Flooding in the eastern belt and positioning ahead of the weekly export sales report did the rest. Corn added ten cents in December, beans twenty and a half in November, and wheat took the largest percentage move of the three.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The move worth reading was inside the bean complex, and it is the mirror image of Tuesday. Meal led, up about 2%. Oil managed a quarter of a percent. Beans rose more than either product in percentage terms. A day on which every price on the screen is green can still be a losing day for a plant, because the crush is a difference, not a level.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>The geopolitical read: this morning the policy risk is a fuel rule, not a war.</strong> Indonesia&#x27;s B50 blending programme came into full effect in July, with the 2026 biodiesel allocation set at 16.75 million kilolitres. To fund the subsidy, Jakarta raised the crude palm oil export levy from 10% to 12.5%. The transmission is export capacity, but self-inflicted: the oil exists and the mills are running, and it is simply made expensive to leave. That is a supply withdrawal decided in a ministry, and it lands first on the palm–soyoil spread, then on every vegetable oil that competes with either.</p>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="margin:6px 0 22px;"><tr><td align="center" style="border:1px solid #e3ddd2;background:#faf7f1;padding:10px;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep09_chart1.png" width="522" alt="Palm pays you to wait — The curve rises 312 ringgit from September to December, about 76 dollars a tonne. Palm is in carry, and the market is paying to hold oil into the low-production quarter rather than sell it now. — MDEX crude palm oil futures, Wednesday 19 August 2026, closing quotes." title="Palm pays you to wait — The curve rises 312 ringgit from September to December, about 76 dollars a tonne. Palm is in carry, and the market is paying to hold oil into the low-production quarter rather than sell it now. — MDEX crude palm oil futures, Wednesday 19 August 2026, closing quotes." style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:522px;height:auto;border:0;outline:none;text-decoration:none;"></td></tr></table><ul style="margin:0 0 16px;padding-left:22px;"><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The four vegetable oils are one market with four tickers. A refiner buys a melting point and a price, not a crop, so the spread between the oils is the switch that rations demand between them.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Palm is the volume leader because the yield per hectare is several times an oilseed&#x27;s, and it is the only major vegetable oil with a futures contract denominated in neither dollars nor euros.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">One cent per pound is $22.05 per tonne. That single factor is what lets a soyoil price in Chicago be compared with a palm price in Kuala Lumpur.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A mandate creates demand that does not respond to price. A food buyer walks away when oil gets expensive; a blender under a legal obligation pays.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Indonesia&#x27;s 16.75 million kilolitre allocation is roughly 15 million tonnes of palm oil consumed at home — on the order of India&#x27;s entire annual import demand, decided by one cabinet.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Never multiply a renewable volume by a feedstock factor without checking whether it is stated in physical gallons or RIN gallons. Biodiesel earns 1.5 RINs per physical gallon, so the wrong basis overstates demand by half.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Oil demand and meal demand are joined at the bushel. A billion pounds of incremental oil demand drags in four billion pounds of meal that no fuel policy asked for, which is why the crush captures far less of an oil rally than the oil chart implies.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Vegetable oil balance sheets now contain an energy term. Discretionary blending is live when gasoil trades above the oils and vanishes when crude falls, and no crop model forecasts it.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Indonesia funds the blending subsidy from the export levy, and the mandate&#x27;s purpose is to shrink the exports the levy is collected on. The levy rate is the honest indicator of whether the programme is still affordable.</li></ul>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Term</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Meaning</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>CPO</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Crude palm oil, the unrefined oil pressed from the fruit of the oil palm and the benchmark grade traded internationally</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>FCPO</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives crude palm oil futures contract, 25 tonnes per lot, quoted in Malaysian ringgit per tonne</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Olein and stearin</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The liquid and solid fractions palm separates into when refined, sold into cooking oil and into fats respectively</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Kilolitre</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">One thousand litres, the volume unit Asian governments state biofuel mandates in, converted to tonnes using the fuel&#x27;s density</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>FAME</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Fatty acid methyl ester, the chemical name for conventional biodiesel made by reacting a vegetable oil with methanol</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>B50</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">A blending mandate requiring 50% biodiesel in the diesel pool, the level Indonesia moved to in 2026</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Export levy</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">A tax charged on a commodity leaving the country, used in Indonesia both to discourage exports and to fund the domestic blending subsidy</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>RFS</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The US Renewable Fuel Standard, the rule that sets annual minimum volumes of renewable fuel that must be blended into American transport fuel</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>RVO</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Renewable volume obligation, the share of the national mandate assigned to an individual refiner or importer</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>RIN</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Renewable identification number, the tradable compliance certificate generated with each gallon of renewable fuel, at 1.5 per gallon of biodiesel</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Biomass-based diesel</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The RFS category covering biodiesel and renewable diesel made from fats and vegetable oils</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Renewable diesel (HVO)</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Hydrotreated vegetable oil, a drop-in diesel chemically identical to fossil diesel and unconstrained by blend walls, unlike FAME</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Discretionary blending</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Blending vegetable oil into the fuel pool purely because it is cheaper than gasoil, with no mandate and no subsidy behind it</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Gasoil</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The traded middle distillate that diesel prices off, and the reference against which discretionary blending economics are judged</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Blend wall</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The physical or warranty limit on how much conventional biodiesel an engine or fuel system will tolerate</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Substitution spread</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The price gap between two competing vegetable oils, which sets the point at which a refiner reformulates from one to the other</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Standing bid</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Demand that is present regardless of price because it is created by obligation rather than by choice</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Market pulse</p><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Corn took the session, and the most interesting price on the screen was not a grain at all.</strong></p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Commodity</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Contract</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Price</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Change</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Corn</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">478¾ c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+5¾¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Corn</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Dec (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">503½ c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+5½¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Soybeans</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Nov (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">1236½ c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#8a2f2f;font-weight:bold;">−¾¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Soybeans</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Jan (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">1251½ c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+¼¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Soymeal</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">—</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#8a2f2f;font-weight:bold;">−1.0%</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Soyoil</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">—</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+2.0%</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Wheat SRW</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">682¾ c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+2½¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Wheat HRW</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep (KC)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">762¼ c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+¼¢</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Baltic Dry Index</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">—</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">2,791</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+15</span></td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Corn was the clear winner and December closed above five dollars. The buying is coming from the Pro Farmer scouts, who keep walking out of fields with less than last year. Illinois was pegged at 184.2 bu/ac against 199.6 a year ago and a three-year average of 199.2. Indiana, Nebraska, western Iowa, South Dakota and Ohio all came in below average. Illinois soybean pod counts at 1,430 per three-by-three square were under last year&#x27;s 1,479 but above the three-year average of 1,390, which is the split that keeps beans flat while corn rallies.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Beans were narrowly mixed and the complex went the other way from Wednesday: meal off about 1%, oil up about 2%. Weekly export sales were unremarkable at 41 m bu of corn, 66 m bu of beans and 14.5 m bu of wheat. New-crop Chinese commitments now stand at 5.69 mmt with a further 3.82 mmt to unknown destinations — still a promise on a balance sheet rather than a fact on a vessel.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>The geopolitical read: the missing thing is a ship, not a tonne.</strong> Ukrainian strikes have left Russia unable to move grain through the Sea of Azov. The transmission most people reach for is export capacity, and that is right, but the mechanism underneath it is vessel class. Azov is a shallow river-sea trade worked by 3,000–5,000 t coasters drawing under five metres. No Panamax can substitute into that water. The cargo has to be railed or trucked several hundred kilometres to deepwater at Novorossiysk, which is carrying its own constraints. Capacity does not shrink because tonnage vanished. It shrinks because the only ships that fit are the ones that cannot sail.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="margin:6px 0 22px;"><tr><td align="center" style="border:1px solid #e3ddd2;background:#faf7f1;padding:10px;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10_chart1.png" width="522" alt="The smaller ship costs more — A Supramax is roughly a third smaller than a Panamax and earned 1,687 dollars a day more. The classes are not one ladder — they serve different trades, and US Gulf Supramax routes have been firming while Asia-Pacific has gone quiet. — Baltic Exchange sub-index average earnings, Wednesday 19 August 2026." title="The smaller ship costs more — A Supramax is roughly a third smaller than a Panamax and earned 1,687 dollars a day more. The classes are not one ladder — they serve different trades, and US Gulf Supramax routes have been firming while Asia-Pacific has gone quiet. — Baltic Exchange sub-index average earnings, Wednesday 19 August 2026." style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:522px;height:auto;border:0;outline:none;text-decoration:none;"></td></tr></table><ul style="margin:0 0 16px;padding-left:22px;"><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Vessel class is chosen by draft, gear and lot size, and only then by price. Read the berth before you read the index.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Deadweight is not cargo. An 82,000 dwt Kamsarmax carries roughly 66,000 t of beans once fuel, water and stores are aboard.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Baltic index points are not a price. They are a broker panel&#x27;s route assessments converted into a time charter equivalent in dollars per day, and nobody can pay an index.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Dollars per tonne and dollars per day are the same freight under two different risk allocations. A voyage charter leaves the queue with the owner; a time charter buys it back onto your book.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A smaller vessel can be more expensive twice over — a higher day rate spread across fewer tonnes. On today&#x27;s rates that is 30% more per tonne on the same cargo.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The moment a CFR sale is made and no vessel is fixed, the seller is short freight. The grain hedge does nothing about it, and no position sheet carries freight at the resolution it carries corn.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Twenty dollars a tonne of freight on a Panamax cargo is about 22,000 dollars a day of hire. That is an ordinary quarter in a market that has better than doubled inside twelve months.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">FFAs hedge an index built from a basket of named routes, not your voyage. It is the same cross-hedge problem as pricing Black Sea wheat off Matif.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Bunkers sit underneath the freight. A Panamax burns about 30 t a day at sea, so a hundred-dollar move in fuel is seventeen percent of a sixteen-dollar margin, decided in the oil market.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Merchants charter rather than own because a ship is a twenty-five-year position taken to solve a sixty-day problem, and because knowing where the cargo is and knowing where the ship is are different businesses.</li></ul>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Term</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Meaning</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Deadweight (dwt)</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The total weight a vessel can carry — cargo plus fuel, water, stores and crew — so always more than the cargo it can load</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Draft</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The depth of hull below the waterline, which rises as the ship loads and is the hard physical limit on which berths and rivers a vessel can enter</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Handysize</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The smallest mainstream dry bulk class, roughly 10,000–40,000 dwt, geared and able to work berths larger ships cannot reach</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Supramax</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">A dry bulk vessel of roughly 50,000–60,000 dwt, normally carrying its own cranes, which works minor bulks and shorter legs</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Panamax / Kamsarmax</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The 75,000–82,000 dwt workhorse of the grain and coal trades, usually gearless and drawing about fourteen metres fully loaded</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Capesize</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">A bulk carrier of about 180,000 dwt and up, too large for the Panama Canal, used mainly for iron ore and coal</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Geared vessel</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">A ship carrying its own cranes, which can therefore discharge at a berth with no shore equipment</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Part cargo</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Loading a vessel below capacity because the berth, river or canal cannot take her full draft</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Baltic Dry Index (BDI)</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The Baltic Exchange&#x27;s headline dry bulk freight index, a weighted composite of the Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize route assessments</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Time charter equivalent (TCE)</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">A voyage&#x27;s economics restated as dollars per day, which is how a shipowner compares one employment against another</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Voyage charter</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Hiring a vessel to move a stated cargo between named ports for a price in dollars per tonne, with the owner carrying the voyage and delay risk</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Time charter</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Hiring the vessel itself for a period at a price in dollars per day, with the charterer taking speed, weather, port delay and usually fuel</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Fixing</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Agreeing the charter of a specific vessel, the moment a freight exposure stops being open</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Forward freight agreement (FFA)</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">A cash-settled swap on a Baltic index route or basket over a calendar month, the only liquid way to hedge freight</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Bunkers</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The vessel&#x27;s fuel, priced separately from the hire and carried by the owner on a voyage charter and by the charterer on a time charter</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>P7 / P8</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Baltic Panamax route codes for US Gulf to Qingdao and Santos to Qingdao, the two assessments that set the soybean origin arb</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>River-sea vessel</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">A small shallow-draft ship built to work both inland waterways and short sea legs, the only class able to load in the Sea of Azov</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Demand-to-supply ratio</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The Baltic&#x27;s measure of tonne-mile demand growth against fleet growth, above 1.0 when cargo is outrunning ships</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr>
 <tr><td style="padding:0 28px;background:#faf7f1;"><table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td height="1" style="height:1px;line-height:1px;font-size:1px;background:#e3ddd2;">&nbsp;</td></tr></table></td></tr>
-<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#f4efe4;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Conversion drill 9 of 12</p><h3 style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">Bushels per acre ↔ tonnes per hectare</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Rule:</strong> corn: 1 bu/ac ≈ 0.0628 t/ha · wheat and soybeans: 1 bu/ac ≈ 0.0673 t/ha</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Fast method:</strong> corn: divide by 16. Wheat/soybeans: divide by 15.</p>
-<ul style="margin:0 0 16px;padding-left:22px;"><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">US corn at 182 bu/ac → 182 ÷ 16 ≈ <strong>11.4 t/ha</strong></li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">US soybeans at 53 bu/ac → 53 ÷ 15 ≈ <strong>3.5 t/ha</strong></li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">French wheat at 7.5 t/ha → 7.5 × 15 ≈ <strong>112 bu/ac</strong></li></ul>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Why it matters:</strong> US yields are quoted in bushels per acre, European and South American in tonnes per hectare. Comparing crops requires crossing.</p></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#f4efe4;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Conversion drill 10 of 12</p><h3 style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">Dollars ↔ euros per tonne</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Rule:</strong> divide by the EUR/USD rate to go from $/t to €/t</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Fast method:</strong> at 1.10, $ → €: take off 9% (÷1.1 ≈ ×0.91). € → $: add 10%. At 1.05, it is 5% each way; at 1.20, take off 17% / add 20%.</p>
+<ul style="margin:0 0 16px;padding-left:22px;"><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">$239/t wheat at 1.10 → 239 − 21 = <strong>€218/t</strong></li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">€205/t Matif at 1.10 → 205 + 20 = <strong>$225/t</strong></li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">$350/t at 1.05 → <strong>€333/t</strong></li></ul>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Why it matters:</strong> Matif quotes euros per tonne, Chicago dollars per bushel. Any Matif–CBOT arb crosses both a unit and a currency.</p></td></tr>
 <tr><td style="padding:0 28px;background:#faf7f1;"><table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td height="1" style="height:1px;line-height:1px;font-size:1px;background:#e3ddd2;">&nbsp;</td></tr></table></td></tr>
-<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Quiz</p><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q1.</strong> September palm settled at RM 4,648/t with the ringgit near 4.08 to the dollar, and Chicago soybean oil was quoted near 69 c/lb in mid-August. Express both in dollars per tonne and give the substitution spread. A European refiner uses 40,000 t of soybean oil a year and can reformulate up to 30% of that volume into palm. Compute the annual saving at today&#x27;s spread, then name the two new exposures the switch creates that the refiner did not have while buying soyoil.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q2.</strong> A rule change is expected to add 1.4 billion pounds of annual US soybean oil demand. Compute the incremental crush in bushels and the incremental soybean meal in short tons. Then explain why a trader who buys the board crush on that headline is likely to be disappointed, and say which single leg he should be positioned against instead.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q3.</strong> Gasoil rallies 25% and moves above both palm and soybean oil on an energy-equivalent basis. Describe what happens to the palm–soyoil spread, to Indonesia&#x27;s subsidy bill, and to the reliability of a soyoil balance sheet whose demand side contains only food and mandated volumes. Then say what happens to all three if crude subsequently falls 30%.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q4.</strong> <em>(Ep 8)</em> Take the board crush formula from ep 8 and start from meal at $325.00/short ton, oil at 69.00 c/lb and November beans at 1217¼. Apply Wednesday&#x27;s moves: meal +2.0%, oil +0.25%, beans +20½¢. Compute the change in the board crush in cents per bushel, and state whether Wednesday was a good or a bad day for a plant. Then say what this tells you about reading a complex from a screen of green numbers.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q5.</strong> <em>(Ep 8)</em> Ep 8 established that the plant crush is the board crush adjusted for three separate bases, minus conversion cost, and that the bean basis at the gate is the line that moves most. Suppose a sustained fuel-driven bid pushes the oil share from 52% to 58% and lifts the board crush to a two-year high. Explain the mechanism by which the plant crush can stay flat throughout, and name the one number you would watch to confirm it is happening.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q6.</strong> <em>(Ep 6)</em> Ep 6 established that corn is a demand story, and that ethanol is one of the two buyers that walks away at a price. On Wednesday ethanol production fell to a one-month low of 1.089 m barrels a day and ethanol stocks rose 1%, and December corn still rallied ten cents. Reconcile those facts. Then state what would have to be true for that divergence to persist for a month rather than a day.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q7.</strong> <em>(Ep 6)</em> Ep 6 argued that a weather premium decays on the calendar rather than on the forecast. Wednesday&#x27;s rally was driven by early Pro Farmer tour results rather than by a forecast. Explain what is structurally different about tour-driven buying compared with forecast-driven buying, and what that difference implies for how long the move should be expected to hold.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q8 — Conversion drill.</strong> A Mato Grosso soybean field yields 3.72 t/ha. An Illinois field is quoted at 58.5 bu/ac. Convert each into the other&#x27;s unit and say which is the higher yield. Then take the 91 million bushels of incremental crush from today&#x27;s worked example and compute how many hectares of Brazilian beans, at 3.72 t/ha, would be needed to supply it. Give the answer in hectares and in acres.</p></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Quiz</p><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q1.</strong> A trader has 66,000 t of soybeans to move from Santos to Qingdao and can use either a Kamsarmax at 18,964 $/day or two Supramaxes at 20,651 $/day carrying 33,000 t each. Assume a 60-day round voyage for either class. Compute the freight cost per tonne both ways and state the difference in total dollars. Then give the two physical conditions under which the more expensive option is the only option, and explain why the day-rate comparison alone is the wrong first question.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q2.</strong> A desk buys 66,000 t FOB Santos and sells the same cargo CFR Qingdao at a gross spread of $74.00/t. Freight is expected at $52.00/t and other costs run $6.00/t. The board is fully hedged and both differentials are fixed in writing. The vessel is not yet fixed. Compute the expected margin in dollars per tonne and in total. Then recompute after freight rallies $20/t. Express that $20 as an equivalent change in daily hire, say which of the desk&#x27;s risks was actually open, and name the instrument that would have covered it and the residual risk that instrument leaves behind.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q3.</strong> Baltic assessments this week put US Gulf–Qingdao at $73.81/t and Santos–Qingdao at $51.98/t. A Chinese crusher is indifferent between origins on delivered cost. US Gulf beans are offered FOB at a differential 15 c/bu <em>below</em> Santos. Convert that differential to dollars per tonne, combine it with the freight spread, and say which origin wins and by how much. Then explain what has to happen to the freight spread — not to the differentials — before the US Gulf becomes competitive, and why a Brazilian exporter watches the Panama Canal draft restrictions more closely than he watches CBOT.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q4.</strong> <em>(Ep 9)</em> Ep 9 established that a mandate creates demand that does not respond to price. Indonesia funds its B50 subsidy from a palm export levy it raised from 10% to 12.5%. Explain why a rising levy rate is a bearish signal for the programme&#x27;s durability even though it is a bullish signal for palm prices today. Then say what a freight desk would want to know about Indonesian export volumes before pricing a Panamax to Rotterdam six months forward.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q5.</strong> <em>(Ep 9)</em> On Thursday soymeal fell about 1% while soyoil rose about 2%. Using ep 9&#x27;s point that oil demand and meal demand are joined at the bushel, explain what that split does to the board crush and to the oil share, and say which of the two products a crusher would rather see lead a rally if the plant is running at capacity.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q6.</strong> <em>(Ep 7)</em> Ep 7 established that ending stocks is a residual roughly a tenth the size of production, so a 1% crop error is a 10% carryout error. Pro Farmer has Illinois corn at 184.2 bu/ac against USDA&#x27;s national 180.7. Explain why a state number above the national number is not evidence that USDA is too low, and set out the two things you would need before letting a tour result move your own balance sheet.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q7.</strong> <em>(Ep 7)</em> A desk&#x27;s own corn sheet uses 88.6 m harvested acres and its own yield. It wants to test how much of a yield miss the export line could absorb before the carryout falls below 1.400 bn bu. Starting from a carryout of 1.653 bn, compute how many bushels of cushion exist, convert that into bushels per acre of yield, and then explain why using exports as the offsetting line is a different kind of assumption from using feed and residual.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q8 — Conversion drill.</strong> A Rouen exporter is offered Matif November milling wheat at €218/t. A competing cargo is quoted CFR Rotterdam at $268/t. Assume EUR/USD at 1.16. Put both on the same currency and say which is cheaper, and by how much in euros per tonne. Then, if freight from the Black Sea to Rotterdam is $18/t, compute the implied FOB Black Sea value of that cargo in both dollars and euros per tonne.</p></td></tr>
 <tr><td align="center" style="padding:20px 28px;background:#f4efe4;border-top:1px solid #e3ddd2;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;"><p style="margin:0;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.12em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#8a2f2f;">Solutions below &mdash; answer first</p></td></tr>
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-<tr><td style="padding:10px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Solutions</p><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A1.</strong> Both sides first, in dollars per tonne.</p>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Oil</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Quote</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Conversion</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">$/t</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Palm, Sep BMD</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">RM 4,648/t</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">÷ 4.08 RM per $</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$1,139</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Soybean oil, CBOT</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">69.00 c/lb</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">× 22.0462</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$1,521</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Substitution spread</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>$382/t</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Thirty percent of 40,000 t is 12,000 t. At $382/t that is <strong>about $4.6 m a year</strong>, which is why formulation teams exist.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The two new exposures. The first is <strong>currency</strong>. FCPO settles in ringgit, so a refiner hedging palm on the board is short ringgit-denominated futures against a dollar or euro cost base, and the hedge itself creates an FX position of roughly RM 55 m on that volume. Nothing in the physical trade asked for that. The second is <strong>policy</strong>. Palm&#x27;s FOB price contains an Indonesian export levy that a ministry can change by decree, as it just did from 10% to 12.5%. Soybean oil is exposed to US policy too, but the refiner buying soyoil in Rotterdam is not paying a tax that moves on a fortnight&#x27;s notice.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Two further answers deserve half credit because they are real: <strong>basis risk</strong>, since Rotterdam CIF palm does not track BMD futures perfectly, and <strong>specification risk</strong>, since palm and soyoil have different melting points and oxidative stability, so &quot;reformulate&quot; is not a switch you can flip and unflip weekly.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A2.</strong> The arithmetic runs through the bushel.</p>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Step</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Working</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Result</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Incremental oil demand</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">given</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">1,400 m lb</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Oil per bushel</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">÷ 11 lb</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>127.3 m bu of crush</strong></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Meal produced</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">× 44 lb</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">5,601 m lb</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">In short tons</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">÷ 2,000</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>2.80 m short tons of meal</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Why the crush buyer is disappointed. The board crush is meal × 0.022 plus oil × 0.11 minus the bean price. The headline lifts one of those three terms. But 127 million bushels of extra crush has to be sourced, so crushers bid the bean, which raises the term being subtracted. And it produces 2.8 million short tons of meal into a market that has no incremental demand for protein, so the meal term falls. Two of the three legs move against the position that the headline appears to justify.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The clean expression of the view is not the crush. It is <strong>short meal against long oil</strong> — the oil share trade. That isolates the thing the policy actually changes, which is the relative value of the two products, and it does not require you to also be right about the bean basis. A trader who buys the whole crush is expressing a view on the oil rule and an unintended view on the bean market at the same time.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The deeper point: any demand shock that arrives through only one joint product has to be released through the other. Fixed proportions mean the by-product is always the shock absorber, and the by-product market is where the price damage shows up.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A3.</strong> Take them in order.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>The palm–soyoil spread narrows.</strong> Discretionary blending is not fussy about which oil it burns — it buys the cheapest tonne of fat that meets spec. So the marginal energy bid lands on palm, which is the cheaper of the two, and pulls it toward soyoil. The spread compresses from the bottom.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Indonesia&#x27;s subsidy bill falls.</strong> The blending subsidy exists to cover the gap between the palm-based biodiesel price and the diesel it replaces. If gasoil is above palm, that gap is negative and the mandate becomes self-financing. This is the quiet condition under which aggressive mandates get announced: they are cheapest to promise when energy is expensive.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>The balance sheet becomes unreliable in the direction of understating demand.</strong> A demand side built from food use plus mandated volumes has no line for the tonnes that a fuel trader buys purely on arbitrage. In a high-gasoil regime those tonnes are real and can be large, and they will show up as an unexplained stock draw that the analyst books to &quot;residual&quot;.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">If crude then falls 30%, all three reverse, and not symmetrically. Discretionary blending switches off essentially overnight, because it is a per-cargo economic decision rather than a contracted programme, so the palm–soyoil spread widens again quickly. The subsidy bill reappears immediately, and now has to be paid out of an export levy pot that the mandate itself has shrunk — which is the loop that forces levy increases. The balance sheet swings from understating demand to overstating it, because the analyst who finally added an energy line will carry it forward. The failure mode is the same in both directions: an energy term added at the top of a cycle is a crop analyst&#x27;s most expensive habit.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A4.</strong> Build the change leg by leg. Only the changes matter, not the levels.</p>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Leg</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Move</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Multiplier</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">¢/bu effect</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Meal</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+2.0% of $325.00 = +$6.50/st</span></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">× 0.022</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">+14.3</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Oil</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+0.25% of 69.00 = +0.1725 c/lb</span></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">× 0.11</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">+1.9</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Beans</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+20.5 c/bu</span></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">−1</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">−20.5</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Board crush</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>−4.3</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">So the board crush fell about <strong>4.3 c/bu on a day when all three prices rose</strong>. Wednesday was a bad day for a plant.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">What it tells you: the crush is a <em>difference between large numbers</em>, so its sign is set by relative moves, not by direction. Meal was the strongest product in percentage terms and still could not carry the bean move, because meal&#x27;s contribution is scaled by 0.022 and the bean&#x27;s by one. A 2% meal rally is worth 14 cents of crush; a 20-cent bean rally costs 20. The screen of green tells you nothing about the margin, and a trader who reads a complex by looking at how many contracts are up is not reading the complex at all.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A5.</strong> The mechanism is competition for beans, and it runs through the gate.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A wide board crush is a public number. Every plant in the country sees it at the same moment, and every plant responds the same way: raise the run rate and buy more beans. Crush capacity cannot be added inside a marketing year, so the only variable that clears the increased demand for beans is the <strong>bean basis at the gate</strong>. Plants bid against each other and against the export elevator, and the basis rises until the marginal plant is indifferent again.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">That is the whole answer. The board crush went to a two-year high and the bean basis absorbed it. The plant crush — board crush, minus bean basis, minus the meal and oil basis effects, minus conversion cost — is flat because the second line rose by as much as the first.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">There is a second-order piece worth noting here. The rising oil share means the extra product value arrives disproportionately in oil, but the extra <em>volume</em> arrives in both products in the fixed 44-to-11 ratio. So higher run rates push meal basis down as well, which subtracts a second time. The plant crush can in fact end up lower than before the fuel-driven rally.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The number to watch is the <strong>bean basis at the plant gate relative to the export elevator&#x27;s bid</strong> in the same draw area. If the crusher is winning that contest, he is paying up for beans and the board crush is being competed away in exactly the place ep 8 said it would be. Watching the board crush alone tells you the opposite of what is happening.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A6.</strong> They are not in conflict, because they are statements about different weeks.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The ethanol print is a <em>demand</em> datapoint about last week&#x27;s grind: production at a one-month low of 1.089 m bbl/day with stocks up 1% is a mildly negative corn signal, worth a fraction of a cent. Wednesday&#x27;s rally was a <em>supply</em> datapoint about this year&#x27;s crop: scouts in the field reporting worse-than-expected conditions, against a USDA yield of 180.7 that the trade already suspected. In August, the supply side of the corn balance sheet has a variance many times larger than the demand side, because a two-bushel yield change moves the carryout by roughly 180 million bushels while a week of soft grind moves it by a few million. The market prices the larger variance first.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">For the divergence to persist a month rather than a day, the tour would have to be confirmed by something structural, and ethanol margins would have to hold. Specifically: the tour findings would need to be validated by the September and October USDA reports, so that the yield cut becomes a balance sheet fact rather than a rumour; and ethanol&#x27;s weakness would need to prove seasonal — a maintenance-driven dip — rather than margin-driven. If ethanol grind is falling because the ethanol crush margin is negative at $4.98 corn, then ep 6&#x27;s point bites: that buyer is walking away at a price, and a rally built on supply will be capped by the demand it destroys. The tell is the ethanol margin itself, not the production number.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A7.</strong> The difference is what kind of information each contains.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A <strong>forecast</strong> is a probability distribution over an event that has not happened. It is revised twice a day, it can be wrong, and the market discounts it accordingly. Crucially, it decays on the calendar: once pollination is past, a forecast of heat cannot change the ear count, and the premium bleeds out whether or not the weather actually improves.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A <strong>crop tour</strong> is a measurement of an event that has already happened. Scouts count ears and pods in fields where the yield is largely already set. That information does not decay, because there is no subsequent event that can falsify it — only a better measurement can, and the better measurement is the USDA survey in September.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">So the two moves behave differently. Tour-driven buying should be <em>stickier</em> than forecast-driven buying, because it is not waiting on an outcome. But it is also <em>narrower</em>: a tour samples a route, not a population, and its historical relationship to the final national yield is loose. The honest expectation is that a tour move holds until the next authoritative measurement and then gets marked to it, which makes the September WASDE the event risk that matters, not the weekend forecast.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The practical implication for positioning: a weather premium is something you sell into strength as the calendar runs out. A tour-driven move is something you carry to the next report and then reassess. Treating the second like the first is how a good supply read turns into a bad trade.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A8 — Conversion drill.</strong> Soybeans convert at 1 bu/ac ≈ 0.0673 t/ha, or divide by 15 as a fast method.</p>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Field</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Given</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Converted</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Illinois</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">58.5 bu/ac</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">× 0.0673 = <strong>3.94 t/ha</strong></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Mato Grosso</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">3.72 t/ha</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">÷ 0.0673 = <strong>55.3 bu/ac</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Illinois is the higher yield</strong>, by about 0.22 t/ha or 3.2 bu/ac — roughly 6%. The fast method gets you there too: 58.5 ÷ 15 = 3.9 t/ha, and 3.72 × 15 = 55.8 bu/ac. Close enough to answer the question in a phone call.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Now the area. First cross bushels into tonnes, at 36.744 bu per tonne of soybeans:</p>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Step</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Working</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Result</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Incremental crush</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">91,000,000 bu ÷ 36.744</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">2.476 m t</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Area required</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">÷ 3.72 t/ha</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>666,000 ha</strong></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">In acres</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">× 2.471</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>1.65 m acres</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Two-thirds of a million hectares of Brazilian soybeans, to feed one billion pounds of American oil demand. It is worth holding that picture next to the mandate that created it: a line in a regulation, denominated in gallons, reaching across a hemisphere and asking for an area roughly the size of a small country&#x27;s entire arable base.</p></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:10px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Solutions</p><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A1.</strong> Take the hire first, then divide by what actually loads.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;"></th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Kamsarmax</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Two Supramaxes</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Cargo</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">66,000 t</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">2 × 33,000 t</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Day rate</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$18,964</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$20,651 each</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Days</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">60</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">60</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Total hire</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$1,137,840</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$2,478,120</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Freight per tonne</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>$17.24</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>$37.55</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The two-ship answer is roughly $20.31/t worse, or <strong>$1,340,280</strong> on the cargo. That is the compounding penalty: a higher rate spread over half the tonnes each, twice.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The realistic version is a single 55,000 t Supramax at <strong>$22.53/t</strong>, $5.29/t worse than the Kamsarmax — still about 31% more freight for the same job.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The two conditions that force the smaller ship are <strong>draft</strong> and <strong>gear</strong>. If the discharge berth carries nine metres of water, a loaded Kamsarmax at fourteen metres cannot enter, and part-cargoing her destroys the per-tonne advantage anyway. If the berth has no shore cranes, only a geared vessel can discharge, and Panamaxes are usually gearless. A third, softer condition is <strong>lot size</strong>: a buyer who wants 55,000 t is not going to take 66,000 t to help your freight.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The trap is the day-rate comparison. Freight per tonne has a numerator and a denominator, and the denominator is set by physics — hydrography and crane fitting — not by the market. The first question is what the berth can take. Only then does the rate matter.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A2.</strong> The margin, twice.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;"></th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">As expected</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">After the rally</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Gross spread (CFR sale − FOB buy)</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$74.00/t</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$74.00/t</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Freight</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">−$52.00/t</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">−$72.00/t</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Finance, insurance, port</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">−$6.00/t</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">−$6.00/t</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Margin</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>$16.00/t</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>−$4.00/t</strong></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>On 66,000 t</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>$1,056,000</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>−$264,000</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A swing of <strong>$1,320,000</strong> with the board never moving.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">As daily hire: $20/t × 66,000 t = $1,320,000, spread over 60 days, is <strong>$22,000/day</strong>. Hire would have to go from about $18,964 to roughly $41,000 — near today&#x27;s Capesize level. The Baltic Dry Index has ranged from 1,261 to 2,845 over the past 52 weeks, better than a double, so that is not an exotic scenario. It is a bad quarter.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The open risk was <strong>freight</strong>, and it was open because the desk sold CFR. Selling CFR means promising delivered cargo at a fixed price while still having to buy the ocean leg. That is structurally short freight. It hid because a position sheet has columns for bushels and lots and none for tonne-miles.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The instrument is an <strong>FFA</strong> — a cash-settled swap on the Baltic Panamax index, sized to the freight exposure, bought (long) to cover a short-freight position. The residual is <strong>basis risk in a new suit</strong>. The FFA settles against the P5TC basket average over a calendar month. The exposure is one voyage, on one route, fixed on one day. The Santos route can move against the basket, the fixing date can miss the settlement window, and the tonnage mismatch is never exact. It is the Black Sea wheat problem from ep 5, wearing shipping clothes.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A3.</strong> Convert the differential first. Soybeans run 36.7439 bu/t, so 15 c/bu × 36.7439 ÷ 100 = <strong>$5.51/t</strong>.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;"></th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">US Gulf</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Santos</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">FOB differential</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">−$5.51/t</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">reference</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Freight to Qingdao</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$73.81/t</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$51.98/t</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Delivered, relative</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>+$68.30/t</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>+$51.98/t</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Santos wins by <strong>$16.32/t</strong>. The freight spread is $21.83/t and the FOB discount recovers only a quarter of it.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">For the US Gulf to compete, the freight spread has to close by more than $16.32/t on its own — the differential is not going to do it, because 15 c/bu is already a serious concession and $16.32/t is another 44 c/bu on top. Freight spreads move for structural reasons: Panama Canal transit availability and draft restrictions, Capesize demand pulling Panamax tonnage out of the Atlantic, US Gulf river levels forcing part cargoes, and the seasonal ballast pattern that leaves ships positioned in the wrong ocean.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The Brazilian exporter watches canal draft because it is the cheapest lever on his competitor&#x27;s cost. A draft restriction at Gatún adds days and dollars to every US Gulf–Asia voyage, or pushes it around the Cape of Good Hope, and every dollar of that lands on the delivered price of the beans he is competing with. CBOT moves both origins together and nets out of the arb. The canal moves only one of them.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A4.</strong> The two signals point in opposite directions because they are about different horizons.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Today the levy is <strong>bullish palm</strong>: a higher export tax raises the FOB price a foreign buyer must pay and withdraws exportable supply, which is a supply shock decided in a ministry rather than in a plantation.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">For the programme it is <strong>bearish</strong>, because the levy is the funding mechanism and the mandate&#x27;s purpose is to shrink the export base the levy is collected on. A subsidy funded by a tax on the thing it is designed to reduce has to raise the rate as it succeeds. The rate is therefore the honest gauge of affordability. A rising rate says the per-tonne burden on a shrinking export volume is climbing, which is exactly the path toward a mandate that gets quietly deferred.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A freight desk pricing a Panamax to Rotterdam six months forward wants <strong>export volume, not price</strong>. Freight is paid on tonne-miles. If B50 plus the levy takes several million tonnes a year out of the Indonesian export programme, that is Panamax and Supramax cargoes that stop existing on the Indonesia–Europe and Indonesia–India legs, and tonnage that has to reposition or accept lower rates. The palm price can rise while the freight demand it generates falls. Those are not the same trade.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A5.</strong> Oil up 2% and meal down 1% moves the <strong>oil share</strong> up and does very little for the <strong>board crush</strong>, which is a weighted difference rather than a level.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Meal is the larger revenue line for a US crusher — a bushel yields roughly 44 lb of meal and 11 lb of oil — so a 1% loss on meal is close to offsetting a 2% gain on oil in absolute dollars. Beans were roughly unchanged, so the crush was roughly unchanged: a flat day disguised as a two-way move.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">If the plant is <strong>running at capacity</strong>, the crusher would rather see <strong>meal</strong> lead. Meal is where the tonnage is, and meal has to be sold locally into a feed market that cannot be arbitraged across an ocean cheaply. An oil-led rally is the one the crusher captures least of, because meeting the oil demand forces out four pounds of meal for every extra pound of oil, and that meal has to find a home at whatever price clears it. This is the joined-at-the-bushel constraint: at capacity there is no volume response available, so the only thing that helps is the price of the product you are already making the most of.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A6.</strong> A state yield above a national yield is not evidence of anything, because they are different populations. The national number is an area-weighted average across all producing states, and it includes the ones the tour has just called below average — Nebraska, South Dakota, Ohio, Indiana, western Iowa. Illinois is usually one of the strongest corn states in the country. Its yield sits above the national average in almost every year, so 184.2 against a national 180.7 says nothing until it is compared with <strong>Illinois&#x27;s own history</strong>, which is 199.6 last year and 199.2 on a three-year average. On that basis it is a very large miss, not a beat.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Two things are needed before a tour result moves a sheet. First, the <strong>methodology gap</strong>: Pro Farmer counts ears and measures grain length in a sample of fields on a fixed route in mid-August, then applies a fixed kernel-weight factor. USDA&#x27;s August number comes from a farmer survey plus objective plot counts, and it will be revised as kernel weight is actually measured in September and October. The tour is a good early read on ear counts and a poor read on final kernel weight, and kernel weight is where the last ten bushels live. Second, the <strong>weighting</strong>: a yield is worth nothing without harvested area behind it. Moving Illinois down fifteen bushels changes the national number by roughly the ratio of Illinois harvested acres to the US total, so the arithmetic has to be done state by state and weighted, not intuited from a headline.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A7.</strong> The cushion first.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;"></th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Bushels</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Carryout, USDA</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">1,653,000,000</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Target floor</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">1,400,000,000</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Cushion</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>253,000,000</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Across 88.6 m harvested acres that is 253 ÷ 88.6 = <strong>2.86 bu/ac</strong>. A yield of 180.7 falling to about <strong>177.8</strong> takes the carryout to 1.400 bn, all else equal.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Using <strong>exports</strong> as the offsetting line is a behavioural assumption. Exports are a competitive outcome: they depend on what Brazil has, on freight, on FX, on Chinese buying policy. If the crop shrinks and the price rises, exports should fall, so the two lines are genuinely linked and the offset has an economic story behind it. But it is a forecast about other people&#x27;s decisions, and it can be wrong in either direction for a whole season.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Using <strong>feed and residual</strong> is a different animal, because that line is not measured at all. It is backed out of the quarterly Grain Stocks survey, so it absorbs both real livestock feeding and every measurement error in production and in stocks. Flexing it is not a demand forecast — it is an admission that the sheet does not balance and a decision about where to put the difference. Both are legitimate. But one is a view on the world and the other is a view on your own arithmetic, and confusing them is how a desk convinces itself it has an edge when it only has a rounding error.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A8 — Conversion drill.</strong> Cross the currency first.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;"></th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Quote</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Conversion</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Common currency</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Matif Nov milling wheat</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">€218/t</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">× 1.16</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$252.88/t</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">CFR Rotterdam cargo</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$268/t</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">÷ 1.16</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">€231.03/t</td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The Matif value is the cheaper of the two, by <strong>$15.12/t</strong>, or <strong>€13.03/t</strong>.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Now back the freight out of the imported cargo. CFR Rotterdam $268/t less $18/t of freight leaves an implied <strong>FOB Black Sea of $250.00/t</strong>, which at 1.16 is <strong>€215.52/t</strong>.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Which is the useful part of the exercise: the imported cargo looked $15 expensive on a delivered basis, but its FOB value sits €2.48/t <em>below</em> the Matif quote. The freight was carrying the entire difference and then some. Any Matif-versus-origin comparison that skips the freight leg is comparing two prices that were never quoted on the same terms.</p></td></tr>
 <tr><td style="padding:0 28px;background:#faf7f1;"><table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td height="1" style="height:1px;line-height:1px;font-size:1px;background:#e3ddd2;">&nbsp;</td></tr></table></td></tr>
-<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">The episode, in writing</p>
-<h3 style="margin:26px 0 10px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">One market with four tickers</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Palm, soybean oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil are grown on different continents, harvested on different calendars and traded on different exchanges. They are nonetheless a single market, and the reason is that almost nobody in the chain wants the crop.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A refiner in Rotterdam, a bottler in Mumbai, a snack manufacturer in Jakarta — each is buying a liquid with a melting point, an oxidative stability and a price. Within limits, the recipe is a choice. Below a certain spread they reformulate toward the cheaper oil; above it they do not. That switching behaviour is what welds four crops into one system, and it means the <strong>substitution spread</strong> between two oils is more informative than either flat price.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Palm is the volume leader. An oil palm produces several tonnes of oil per hectare where a soybean produces well under one, which is why a crop grown in a narrow equatorial band supplies more vegetable oil than any other single source. Its benchmark is the <strong>FCPO</strong> contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>The unit moment.</strong> One FCPO lot is 25 tonnes of crude palm oil, quoted in Malaysian ringgit per tonne, with a minimum tick of RM 1 — so RM 25 per lot. It is quoted in ringgit because it settles against Malaysian physical delivery. That is a detail with teeth: it is the only major vegetable oil benchmark denominated in neither dollars nor euros, so every non-Malaysian hedger acquires a currency position that no part of the underlying trade asked for.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Crossing into Chicago requires one number. Soybean oil is quoted in cents per pound, 60,000 lb to a contract, and <strong>1 c/lb = $22.05/t</strong>. Commit that to memory and the two halves of the oil world become comparable in a single multiplication.</p>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Market</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Quote</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">In $/t</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Palm, Sep BMD</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">RM 4,648/t at 4.08 RM/$</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$1,139</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Soybean oil, CBOT, mid-August</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">69.00 c/lb</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$1,521</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Spread</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>$382/t</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Nearly four hundred dollars a tonne between two liquids that a refiner can, within limits, use interchangeably. That gap is not a mispricing waiting to be arbitraged. It is the price of two different national policies, and the rest of this edition is about how those policies get there.</p>
-<h3 style="margin:26px 0 10px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">Reading the palm curve</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Wednesday&#x27;s palm board also carries a shape worth reading, and it is a chance to apply the curve grammar from ep 3 to a market that behaves nothing like Chicago wheat.</p>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="margin:6px 0 22px;"><tr><td align="center" style="border:1px solid #e3ddd2;background:#faf7f1;padding:10px;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep09_chart2.png" width="522" alt="The carry is front-loaded — Most of the 312-ringgit carry sits in the first spread and it shrinks steadily thereafter. The market is paying hardest to move oil out of September, which is a statement about the next few weeks rather than about the fourth quarter. — Derived from MDEX crude palm oil closing quotes, Wednesday 19 August 2026." title="The carry is front-loaded — Most of the 312-ringgit carry sits in the first spread and it shrinks steadily thereafter. The market is paying hardest to move oil out of September, which is a statement about the next few weeks rather than about the fourth quarter. — Derived from MDEX crude palm oil closing quotes, Wednesday 19 August 2026." style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:522px;height:auto;border:0;outline:none;text-decoration:none;"></td></tr></table>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The curve rises RM 312 from September to December, roughly $76/t, or about 6.7% over three months. On the ep 3 framing that is a <strong>carry market</strong>: the board is paying you to hold oil rather than sell it prompt. But the decomposition matters more than the total. The Sep–Oct spread alone is RM 139, and each subsequent spread is smaller. A carry that is front-loaded is not a general statement that oil is abundant. It is a statement that oil is abundant <em>now</em>, and that the market expects the fourth-quarter production decline — palm&#x27;s output falls seasonally into the northern winter — to tighten things later.</p>
-<h3 style="margin:26px 0 10px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">A mandate is a standing bid</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Ordinary demand curves slope downward. Somebody stops buying when the price rises. This is the assumption underneath every balance sheet: the demand lines are estimates of behaviour, and behaviour responds to price.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A mandate breaks that. A blender legally required to put 50% biodiesel into the diesel pool does not walk away at a higher palm price. He pays, or he does not sell fuel. That converts a political decision into a <strong>standing bid</strong> — demand that exists regardless of price — and it is the single most important structural fact about vegetable oils today.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Work the Indonesian number, because the arithmetic is the lesson.</p>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Step</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Working</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Result</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">2026 biodiesel allocation</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">stated by Jakarta</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">16.75 m kL</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Volume to mass</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">× 0.88 t/m³ (biodiesel density)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">14.74 m t of fuel</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Fuel to feedstock</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">× ~1.03 t CPO per t FAME</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>≈ 15.2 m t of CPO</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Fifteen million tonnes of palm oil, consumed inside the country that produced it. That is on the order of a third of Indonesian output, and it is roughly the size of India&#x27;s entire annual vegetable oil import demand. One cabinet decision, sized like the world&#x27;s largest importer.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The funding mechanism is where it gets interesting. The blending subsidy is paid out of the <strong>export levy</strong>, which was raised from 10% to 12.5% this year. But the mandate&#x27;s purpose is to reduce the exports on which the levy is collected. The more successful the programme, the smaller the pot that pays for it. That is not a stable arrangement, and it is why the levy rate — not the mandate headline — is the honest indicator of whether the programme is affordable. Watch the rate.</p>
-<h3 style="margin:26px 0 10px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">The American version, and the trap in it</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The United States sets its volumes through the Renewable Fuel Standard. The final rule for 2026 put total renewable fuel at 26.81 bn gallons and biomass-based diesel at 8.86 bn gallons, with an advanced biofuel line of 10.82 bn.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The temptation is to multiply a volume by a feedstock factor and call it demand. Do not, without first checking the basis. Some RFS volumes are stated in physical gallons and some in <strong>RIN</strong> gallons, and biodiesel generates 1.5 RINs per physical gallon. Read the wrong basis and the resulting feedstock estimate is 50% too large. This mistake is made in public, by people who should know better, and it is the fastest way to be confidently wrong about a soybean oil balance sheet.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The safe method is to work in the <strong>increment</strong>, where the equivalence factors cancel. Suppose a policy change adds one billion pounds of annual soybean oil demand.</p>
-<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="margin:6px 0 22px;"><tr><td align="center" style="border:1px solid #e3ddd2;background:#faf7f1;padding:10px;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep09_chart3.png" width="522" alt="One billion of oil, four of meal — The mandate asks for the oil. The bushel delivers four times as much meal alongside it — about two million short tons that no fuel policy requested and no fuel industry can use. — Worked example, episode 9, using the 11 lb oil and 44 lb meal yields per bushel from episode 8." title="One billion of oil, four of meal — The mandate asks for the oil. The bushel delivers four times as much meal alongside it — about two million short tons that no fuel policy requested and no fuel industry can use. — Worked example, episode 9, using the 11 lb oil and 44 lb meal yields per bushel from episode 8." style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:522px;height:auto;border:0;outline:none;text-decoration:none;"></td></tr></table>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A bushel of soybeans yields 11 lb of oil and 44 lb of meal, in fixed proportion. One billion pounds of oil therefore requires about <strong>91 million bushels</strong> of additional crush — and that crush produces about <strong>4.0 billion pounds of meal</strong>, or 2.0 million short tons.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">That meal was not requested by anyone. It has to be fed to an animal, somewhere, at some price, and the price is what adjusts. So the chain runs: a fuel rule bids up oil, crushers raise run rates, meal supply floods, and the meal price falls. Ep 8&#x27;s board crush formula makes the consequence arithmetic rather than opinion — meal × 0.022, plus oil × 0.11, minus the bean. An oil-driven demand shock lifts the second term, depresses the first, and raises the third as crushers compete for beans. The crush captures far less of the move than the oil chart suggests.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The general principle is worth stating cleanly: <strong>any demand shock arriving through one joint product must be released through the other.</strong> Fixed proportions make the by-product the shock absorber, and the by-product market is where the price damage lands. A fuel policy is always, whether it intends to be or not, a protein policy.</p>
-<h3 style="margin:26px 0 10px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">Why balance sheets now have an energy term</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Palm and soybean oil each sit on two bids.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The first is the mandate: contracted, price-insensitive, known in advance. The second is <strong>discretionary blending</strong> — a refiner buying vegetable oil purely because it is cheaper than gasoil, with no subsidy and no legal obligation. Through the middle of this year that bid was live, because gasoil rallied roughly 30% in a fortnight and inverted above both palm and soybean oil, making the blend profitable on its own economics.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">That second bid is the energy term, and it has three properties that make it dangerous for a crop analyst.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">It is <strong>large</strong>. When it is on, it competes directly with food demand for the same tonnes.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">It is <strong>fast</strong>. Discretionary blending is a per-cargo decision, not a programme. It switches on and off with the gasoil–vegoil relationship, which means it can disappear within a week of a crude sell-off.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">It is <strong>unforecastable from agricultural data</strong>. Nothing in a crop model, a stocks report or a weather forecast tells you where gasoil will trade. An analyst who adds an energy demand line is importing a variable from a market with its own supply, its own politics and its own volatility.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The failure mode is symmetrical and worth naming. Build a balance sheet with no energy line during a high-gasoil regime and you will systematically understate demand, and book the missing tonnes to residual. Add the line at the top of the cycle, then carry it forward through a 30% crude decline, and you will overstate demand by exactly the amount you were previously missing. Both errors feel like diligence at the time.</p>
-<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The discipline is to treat the energy term as a <strong>regime</strong>, not a level: state the gasoil condition under which the line is live, size it, and set it to zero the moment the condition fails. That is a harder forecast than a crop, and it is now unavoidable, because a soybean is no longer only a food.</p></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">The episode, in writing</p><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Yesterday a Supramax bulk carrier earned $20,651 a day. A Panamax, about a third bigger, earned $18,964. The smaller ship was the more expensive ship, and it was the more expensive ship per tonne by a much wider margin than that gap suggests.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">That inversion is a good place to start, because it breaks the intuition that the dry bulk fleet is a ladder with cheap small ships at the bottom and expensive large ones at the top. It is not a ladder. It is four separate markets that happen to be measured on the same page.</p>
+<h3 style="margin:26px 0 10px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">The fleet, and why the sizes are not arbitrary</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The classes, in deadweight tonnes:</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Class</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Deadweight</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Typical cargo</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Gear</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Handysize</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">10,000–40,000 dwt</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Minor bulks, short legs</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Geared</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Supramax</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">50,000–60,000 dwt</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Minor bulks, grain part cargoes</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Geared</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Panamax / Kamsarmax</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">75,000–82,000 dwt</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Grain, coal</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Usually gearless</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Capesize</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">180,000 dwt and up</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Iron ore, coal</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Gearless</td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Deadweight is not cargo.</strong> It is everything the ship can carry: cargo, bunkers, fresh water, stores, crew and their effects. An 82,000 dwt Kamsarmax sailing Santos to Qingdao is carrying something like 3,000 tonnes of fuel before a single bean goes in the hold. She loads roughly 66,000 t. Treating dwt as cargo capacity overstates a cargo by a fifth, and that error propagates straight into a freight-per-tonne number.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The classes exist because of <strong>draft</strong> — the depth of hull below the waterline, which increases as the ship loads. A fully laden Panamax draws about fourteen metres. A very large number of the world&#x27;s berths, rivers and approach channels cannot take fourteen metres. When they cannot, there are exactly two options: load the big ship partly full, which is called a <strong>part cargo</strong> and throws away the scale advantage, or take a smaller ship.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The second constraint is <strong>gear</strong>. A Supramax normally carries its own cranes. A Panamax normally does not. If the discharge berth has no shore equipment, the vessel class has already been decided, and no freight rate changes that.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">This is why the Sea of Azov story is a vessel-class story rather than a tonnage story. Azov is shallow water worked by 3,000–5,000 t river-sea vessels drawing under five metres. When that trade is shut, the world&#x27;s spare Panamax tonnage is entirely irrelevant to it. The ships that fit cannot sail, and the ships that can sail do not fit.</p>
+<h3 style="margin:26px 0 10px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">The screens: what a Baltic index actually is</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The Baltic Exchange publishes a headline index, the BDI, and a sub-index for each class. On Thursday the BDI printed 2,791, up 15.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Here is the unit moment that matters most on this subject: <strong>those points are not a price, and nobody can pay them</strong>. The Baltic surveys a panel of shipbrokers each day on a fixed basket of named routes, then converts the assessments into a <strong>time charter equivalent</strong> — TCE, in dollars per day. That is the number a shipowner thinks in, because it is what lets him compare a grain voyage against a coal voyage against a period fix.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Index</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Points</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Average earnings</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Capesize (BCI)</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">4,376</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$39,684/day</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Panamax (BPI)</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">2,107</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$18,964/day</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Supramax (BSI)</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">1,634</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$20,651/day</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Handysize (BHSI)</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">867</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$15,605/day</td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Read the middle two again. The Supramax is the smaller vessel and it is earning more per day. They are different trades: Panamaxes live on coal and large grain lots, Supramaxes on minor bulks and shorter legs, and US Gulf Supramax routes have been firming recently while Asia-Pacific has gone quiet.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="margin:6px 0 22px;"><tr><td align="center" style="border:1px solid #e3ddd2;background:#faf7f1;padding:10px;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10_chart2.png" width="522" alt="Same cargo, two vessel classes — A 60-day round voyage at Wednesday&#x27;s rates. The Supramax costs 31% more per tonne — a higher day rate spread across fewer tonnes, so the penalty compounds. Nobody chooses this. The berth chooses it. — Worked example, episode 10, using Baltic average earnings of 18,964 and 20,651 USD per day." title="Same cargo, two vessel classes — A 60-day round voyage at Wednesday&#x27;s rates. The Supramax costs 31% more per tonne — a higher day rate spread across fewer tonnes, so the penalty compounds. Nobody chooses this. The berth chooses it. — Worked example, episode 10, using Baltic average earnings of 18,964 and 20,651 USD per day." style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:522px;height:auto;border:0;outline:none;text-decoration:none;"></td></tr></table>
+<h3 style="margin:26px 0 10px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">The two currencies of freight</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Freight is quoted two ways, and fluency in both is not optional.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;"></th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Voyage charter</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Time charter</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Unit</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$/tonne of cargo</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$/day of hire</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">What you buy</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Carriage of a stated cargo between named ports</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The vessel itself, for a period</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Weather and speed risk</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Owner</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Charterer</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Port queue and delay</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Owner (subject to laytime and demurrage)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Charterer</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Bunkers</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Owner</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Charterer</td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Same steel, two prices, two completely different risk allocations. Converting between them is what a chartering desk does all day, and the conversion is never clean, because it requires a view on how long the voyage will actually take.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">That view is the whole argument:</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="margin:0 0 20px;"><tr><td style="border-left:3px solid #a8813c;padding:4px 0 4px 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.55;font-style:italic;color:#4a4238;"><strong>TRADER:</strong> Sixty-six Santos, first half October. What&#x27;s it costing me?<br><strong>CHARTERER:</strong> Fifty-two on voyage. Or I put you on a Kamsarmax, time charter, nineteen five.<br><strong>TRADER:</strong> Which one do I want?<br><strong>CHARTERER:</strong> Depends who you think eats the queue at Santos.</td></tr></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Neither of them called freight $52 and left it there. One number is a price; the other is a transfer of risk. Whichever is cheaper depends on the line-up at Santos in October, and neither of them knows the line-up in October. What they are actually negotiating is who carries that ignorance.</p>
+<h3 style="margin:26px 0 10px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">The arb, and the leg everybody leaves open</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Baltic route assessments this week put <strong>P7</strong>, US Gulf to Qingdao, at $73.81/t, and <strong>P8</strong>, Santos to Qingdao, at $51.98/t. That $21.83/t gap decides whose beans China buys far more often than the FOB differential does — 15 c/bu of origin discount is only $5.51/t, barely a quarter of the freight spread.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Now the trade that actually kills people. Buy 66,000 t FOB Santos, sell the same cargo CFR Qingdao.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Line</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">$/tonne</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Gross spread (CFR sale − FOB buy)</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">74.00</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Freight</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">−52.00</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Finance, insurance, port</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">−6.00</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Margin</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>16.00</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Sixteen dollars a tonne is $1,056,000 on the cargo. Sell the board against the physical and flat price is gone. Both differentials are agreed in writing. The trade looks locked.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Except the vessel is not fixed. Freight rallies $20/t before it is.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="margin:6px 0 22px;"><tr><td align="center" style="border:1px solid #e3ddd2;background:#faf7f1;padding:10px;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10_chart3.png" width="522" alt="Santos to Qingdao, one Panamax — Freight is two thirds of the gross spread before a single dollar of margin is counted. A twenty-dollar rally on the unfixed leg turns 1.06 million dollars of profit into a 264,000 dollar loss, and the board never moved. — Worked example, episode 10, freight from Baltic P8 Santos–Qingdao at 51.98 USD per tonne." title="Santos to Qingdao, one Panamax — Freight is two thirds of the gross spread before a single dollar of margin is counted. A twenty-dollar rally on the unfixed leg turns 1.06 million dollars of profit into a 264,000 dollar loss, and the board never moved. — Worked example, episode 10, freight from Baltic P8 Santos–Qingdao at 51.98 USD per tonne." style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:522px;height:auto;border:0;outline:none;text-decoration:none;"></td></tr></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The margin goes to <strong>−$4.00/t</strong>, a loss of $264,000. A swing of $1.32 m on a fully hedged trade.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Is $20/t an outrageous move? Spread over the 66,000 t cargo and the 60-day round voyage, it is about <strong>$22,000 a day</strong> of extra hire — taking a Panamax from $18,964 to roughly $41,000, which is near today&#x27;s Capesize level. The BDI has ranged between 1,261 and 2,845 over the past 52 weeks, better than a double. Twenty dollars is not a tail event. It is a bad quarter.</p>
+<h3 style="margin:26px 0 10px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">The position nobody writes down</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Here is the sentence worth keeping: <strong>the moment a CFR sale is made and no vessel is fixed, the seller is short freight.</strong></p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">It runs both ways. Buy CFR and sell FOB and the position is long freight. Two trades can look identically flat on the grain and point in opposite directions on the ocean.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The reason this hides is structural rather than careless. A position sheet has columns for bushels, lots, months and locations. It very rarely carries freight at the same resolution, and when it does, the exposure is often booked at the <em>expected</em> rate rather than marked to the index. A book that is flat in every grain column can be carrying seven figures of directional freight risk that nothing on the page names.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>FFAs</strong> are the answer, as far as there is one: cash-settled swaps on a Baltic index route or basket, over a calendar month. A short-freight position is covered by buying FFAs. But the hedge is an index built from a basket of named routes, and the exposure is one voyage on one route fixed on one day. The route can move against the basket, the fixing can miss the settlement window, and the tonnage never matches exactly. This is the cross-hedge problem from ep 5 — a Black Sea cargo hedged on Matif — wearing shipping clothes.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Underneath the freight sits <strong>fuel</strong>. A Panamax burns roughly 30 t a day at sea, so a 60-day voyage is about 1,800 t of bunkers. A hundred-dollar move in fuel is $180,000, or $2.73/t on the cargo — seventeen percent of a sixteen-dollar margin, decided in the oil market. On a voyage charter the owner wears it. On a time charter, the charterer does, which is a large part of what the two quotes in that dialogue were really about.</p>
+<h3 style="margin:26px 0 10px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">Why merchants charter rather than own</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">If freight matters this much, why does almost every merchant rent its tonnage?</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Three reasons, and only the third is about shipping.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A ship is a <strong>twenty-five-year asset</strong> and a cargo is a sixty-day problem. Owning one to solve the other means holding a two-decade position to cover a two-month exposure, which is not a hedge — it is a second business.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The merchant&#x27;s edge is <strong>knowing where the cargo is</strong>, not knowing where the ship is. Those are genuinely different information games, played by different people, on different cycles.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">And shipping is more violently cyclical than grain. A trading margin financed by a shipping balance sheet stops behaving like a trading margin: the freight cycle&#x27;s drawdowns are deep enough to constrain the working capital that the grain business runs on, at exactly the moments when grain opportunities appear.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The houses that do own tonnage mostly own it for a narrower reason: to guarantee <strong>access</strong> on the days when access, not price, is the binding constraint. That is a real reason. It is just not a trading reason, and the distinction is worth holding onto, because it is the same distinction that separates owning an elevator from having a view on basis — which is Monday&#x27;s subject.</p></td></tr>
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-<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Glossary</p><p style="margin:0;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.6;color:#4a4238;">Every unit and expression the show has introduced lives on the episode page, and it stays up to date. <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep09.html#glossary" style="color:#1d4032;">Open the glossary &rarr;</a></p></td></tr>
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+<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Glossary</p><p style="margin:0;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.6;color:#4a4238;">Every unit and expression the show has introduced lives on the episode page, and it stays up to date. <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10.html#glossary" style="color:#1d4032;">Open the glossary &rarr;</a></p></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:22px 28px 30px;background:#ece7db;border-top:1px solid #e3ddd2;"><p style="margin:0 0 6px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:1.7;color:#4a4238;"><strong>Soft Commodity Trading</strong> &mdash; a daily briefing on physical commodity trading.</p><p style="margin:0;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:1.7;color:#8b8375;"><a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/index.html" style="color:#4a4238;">All episodes</a> &nbsp;·&nbsp; <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/feed.xml" style="color:#4a4238;">Subscribe by RSS</a> &nbsp;·&nbsp; <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10.html" style="color:#4a4238;">This episode online</a></p></td></tr>
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