@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.24 → 1.0.26

package/covered.md

@@ -9,3 +9,4 @@ Running log. Read before writing a new episode: avoid repeating material, and on
 - **Ep 5** (Fri) — *Wheat: The Map and the Screens*: Wheat classes and specs (SRW ~10 Chicago, HRW 11-12.5 KC, HRS 13.5+ Minneapolis, durum, Black Sea milling 11.5-12.5); protein, test weight and falling number as the real price, low falling number demotes milling to feed at ~40 USD/t. Four exchanges for one grain: Chicago and KC 5000 bu in c/bu, Minneapolis HRS, Matif EU milling 50 t lots in EUR/t delivered Rouen-Dunkirk; tick symmetry 12.50 dollars vs 12.50 euros; 60kt = 440 Chicago lots vs 1200 Matif lots. KC over Chicago 68c/bu = 26 USD/t as the protein spread and an export-bid signal. Black Sea has no futures - daily price assessments, why an assessment cannot be bought sold or hedged. Cross-hedge worked example: 60kt Russian 12.5 FOB at 224 hedged with 1200 Matif lots, Europe +10 EUR/t = -692k against physical +4 USD/t = +240k, net -452k = 7.5 USD/t slippage; cross-hedge protects against the world moving not your own market; correlation highest on quiet days; EUR/USD exposure created by the hedge itself (~13-14m EUR). MILL/SELLER dialogue on protein, falling number, test weight and the 9-dollar spec spread. Pulse: Thu 13 Aug give-back - Dec corn 4.7775 -0.6 percent, Nov beans 11.8175 flat, Chi Sep wheat 6.5125 -0.2 percent, KC Sep 7.2075 Wed settle; China bought new-crop US beans three days running totalling 505,000 t; GEO escalation - Russia struck Izmail on the Danube, Ukraine's fallback after deepwater loadings ~zero since 22 July, Ukrainian early-Aug shipments -76 percent y/y, wheat export forecast 8.3 Mt, USDA cut Russia+Ukraine exports 2.5 Mt, yet Chicago finished the week unchanged because US sales were only 255,900 t (-14 percent w/w) and the US share of world trade was cut to 9.9 from 10.9 percent - flow substitution needs a buyer who actually switches origin, and they call France, Argentina and Australia.
 - **Ep 6** (Mon) — *Corn, Crop Calendars and Weather Risk*: Corn as a demand story (feed ~2/5, ethanol grind and its margin switch, exports 3.275bn bu, stepped demand curve); corn-wheat feed substitution priced both ways - Dec corn 477.5 = 188 USD/t vs Dec SRW 679 = 249.5 USD/t, 4 percent feeding credit gives a 195 USD/t switch level, 54.50 USD/t gap = 148 c/bu, wheat would need 531; 654k a month on a 20kt mill at 60 percent inclusion; reverse ceiling corn at 240 USD/t = 609 c/bu; BROKER/FEEDER dialogue quoting flat-to-corn rather than a wheat price. Crop calendar table US/Ukraine/Brazil full-season/safrinha/Argentina, US and Ukraine share a hemisphere so not diversified, safrinha is 3/4 of Brazilian corn and its risk is the soybean harvest date in front of it (wet October to May pollination in the dry season). Anatomy of a weather premium: price of a distribution vs trend yield, builds 10-14 days before the window, decays on the calendar not the forecast; Aug WASDE case - yield cut 183 to 180.7 removed 204m bu on 88.6m harvested acres but 2.8m acres found lifted production to 16.013bn, second largest ever; planted vs harvested acres as two denominators, ~8m acres never cut for grain. Pulse: Fri 14 Aug closes higher across the board with wheat up 4 percent on the week (Sep corn 459 +11, Sep beans 1177.75 +11.75, Sep meal 310.20, Sep oil 69.44, Sep Chi wheat 674.75 +22, Dec SRW 679, Dec KC 747.25, Dec corn 477.5, Matif spot 228.25 EUR); GEO escalation - all three Novorossiysk grain terminals suspended by Ukrainian drone strikes, Russian August loadings ~2.5 Mt = under half the five-year pace and weakest August since 2016/17, Ukraine MTD 201.7 kt -76 percent y/y, deepwater corridor shut since 22 July, Russia rejected partial ceasefire for civilian shipping - flow substitution moved from threat to actual buying, which is why this week the price moved and last week it did not
 - **Ep 7** (Tue) — *WASDE and Building a Balance Sheet*: How a grain balance sheet is built line by line, and why ending stocks — the line nobody measures — moves about ten times faster than the crop itself. Plus feed and residual, the line that hides the sins, and why two competent analysts agree on supply and fight about demand.
+- **Ep 8** (Wed) — *The Soybean Complex and the Crush*: One seed, three markets: beans, meal and oil, and the processing margin that runs the industry. Board crush arithmetic step by step, why the plant never earns the screen number, and where a crusher's real optionality sits.