@policyengine/calibration-tree 0.0.0-stage → 0.1.1
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/LICENSE +21 -0
- package/README.md +58 -2
- package/package.json +73 -4
- package/src/calibration-build-comparison.ts +77 -0
- package/src/calibration-comparison-blob.ts +367 -0
- package/src/calibration-comparison-bundle.ts +149 -0
- package/src/calibration-explorer.ts +202 -0
- package/src/calibration-release-locator.ts +353 -0
- package/src/calibration-tree-artifact.ts +1974 -0
- package/src/calibration-tree-blob.ts +403 -0
- package/src/calibration-tree-bundle.ts +569 -0
- package/src/calibration-tree-manifest.ts +349 -0
- package/src/calibration-tree-publication.ts +399 -0
- package/src/calibration-tree-worker.ts +637 -0
- package/src/calibration-tree.ts +1284 -0
- package/src/chronicle-metadata.ts +42 -0
- package/src/countries.ts +355 -0
- package/src/geography-labels.ts +59 -0
- package/src/hierarchy-catalog-reader.ts +297 -0
- package/src/hierarchy-target-reader.ts +243 -0
- package/src/historical-weight-summary.ts +53 -0
- package/src/latest-artifact.ts +3767 -0
- package/src/legacy-target-reader.ts +337 -0
- package/src/program-label.ts +64 -0
- package/src/publish-calibration-tree.ts +1984 -0
- package/src/reforms.ts +224 -0
- package/src/release-cut.ts +32 -0
- package/src/release-record.ts +277 -0
- package/src/source-label.ts +5 -0
- package/src/source-labels.ts +71 -0
- package/src/staging-artifact.ts +1411 -0
- package/src/staging-contract.ts +916 -0
- package/src/structured-dimension-reader.ts +137 -0
- package/src/structured-target-reader.ts +76 -0
- package/src/target-change.ts +421 -0
- package/src/target-loss-attribution-manifest.ts +436 -0
- package/src/target-loss-attribution.ts +1012 -0
- package/src/target-representation.ts +69 -0
- package/src/target-surface-matcher.ts +266 -0
- package/types/next-fetch-cache.d.ts +8 -0
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export type HistoricalAttributionStatus =
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| "exact_reconstructed"
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| "derived"
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| "unavailable";
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export type HistoricalAttributionRecipe =
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| "uniform_target_scale_cap_100pct_v1"
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| "historical_sqrt_value_50_50_v1"
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| "newer_sqrt_value_50_50_v2"
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| "concept_budget_sqrt_value_50_50_v3"
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| "legacy_current_doctrine_v1";
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export interface AttributionVerificationTolerance {
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kind: "floating_point" | "six_decimal_quantization" | "not_applicable";
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absolute: number;
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relative: number;
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}
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export interface HistoricalAttributionSupport {
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releaseId: string;
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buildId: string;
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diagnosticsSha256?: string;
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buildSha: string | null;
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producerCommit: string | null;
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releaseFamily: "national" | "local_area";
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diagnosticsSchema: number | null;
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targetCount: number;
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: string;
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: string | null;
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weightingIdentifier: string | null;
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lossCap?: number;
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recipe: HistoricalAttributionRecipe;
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expectedStatus: HistoricalAttributionStatus;
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tolerance: AttributionVerificationTolerance;
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}
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const FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE: AttributionVerificationTolerance = {
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kind: "floating_point",
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absolute: 1e-12,
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relative: 1e-12,
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};
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const SIX_DECIMAL_TOLERANCE: AttributionVerificationTolerance = {
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kind: "six_decimal_quantization",
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absolute: 0.5e-6,
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relative: 0,
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};
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const DERIVED_TOLERANCE: AttributionVerificationTolerance = {
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kind: "not_applicable",
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absolute: 0,
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relative: 0,
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};
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const HISTORICAL_WEIGHTING =
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"sqrt_value_weighted_mape_50_50_amount_count_target_scale_cap_100pct";
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const HISTORICAL_WEIGHTING_CAP_1000 =
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"sqrt_value_weighted_mape_50_50_amount_count_target_scale_cap_1000pct";
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const CONCEPT_BUDGET_WEIGHTING =
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"sqrt_value_concept_budget_weighted_mape_50_50_amount_count_target_scale_cap_100pct";
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// This manifest is required because older builds do not expose target-importance
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// weights in their diagnostic files. It was audited against every US release
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// eligible for the picker through 2026-09-29 and includes explicitly verified staging
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// candidates when needed. These fingerprints cover ordered diagnostic row names,
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// not downloaded files; runtime reconstruction must refuse an artifact whose
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// target surface changes.
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export const HISTORICAL_ATTRIBUTION_SUPPORT: readonly HistoricalAttributionSupport[] = [
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-f32c2e5-20260614",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-f32c2e5-20260614",
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buildSha: "f32c2e5",
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producerCommit: null,
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 1,
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targetCount: 3704,
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "29b3911feaa3b9172792aaacb2dd4bf5cbd941b0bc1d6e289b2304f81d72c0ca",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: null,
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weightingIdentifier: null,
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recipe: "legacy_current_doctrine_v1",
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expectedStatus: "derived",
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tolerance: DERIVED_TOLERANCE,
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-f32c2e5-2d2a2ce92f8a-20260615T185857Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-f32c2e5-2d2a2ce92f8a-20260615T185857Z",
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buildSha: "2d2a2ce",
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producerCommit: "2d2a2ce92f8a4caacc07f7678b00c43523fcf198",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 2,
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targetCount: 457,
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "7e6830ca2b1793e0de7a9bc78c9eed5507422efa0205e42d61568d32c5787c9d",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "876a96c6e13345fdf6d23bee2cd65b93e7ec47877ea2e42b79c2f083ce11dc99",
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weightingIdentifier: null,
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recipe: "legacy_current_doctrine_v1",
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expectedStatus: "derived",
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tolerance: DERIVED_TOLERANCE,
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-0cdbb27-c239dfe51c11-20260615T201302Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-0cdbb27-c239dfe51c11-20260615T201302Z",
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buildSha: "c239dfe",
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producerCommit: "c239dfe51c11a7715324e957406c050154f4c4cd",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 2,
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targetCount: 457,
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "7e6830ca2b1793e0de7a9bc78c9eed5507422efa0205e42d61568d32c5787c9d",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "876a96c6e13345fdf6d23bee2cd65b93e7ec47877ea2e42b79c2f083ce11dc99",
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weightingIdentifier: null,
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recipe: "legacy_current_doctrine_v1",
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expectedStatus: "derived",
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tolerance: DERIVED_TOLERANCE,
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-f32c2e5-0c38bc47db89-20260616T124451Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-f32c2e5-0c38bc47db89-20260616T124451Z",
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buildSha: "0c38bc4",
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producerCommit: "0c38bc47db89c9d054944ace41ff778af4e01769",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 2,
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targetCount: 5229,
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "43db0a4c797c954fab4cd45d56b6fe47aaa3dc3276dc284de3afa06453f0daf9",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "4a79fcd4580e6fe7895fb72334fd458228b4066c96a9e6ea1c28493b67104cef",
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weightingIdentifier: null,
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recipe: "legacy_current_doctrine_v1",
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expectedStatus: "derived",
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tolerance: DERIVED_TOLERANCE,
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-a912aea-76666318a202-20260616T175345Z",
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buildSha: "7666631",
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producerCommit: "76666318a202f5c638cc4c432b3d7bca981102ba",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 2,
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targetCount: 5128,
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "2b90b98a6240d5f3561b35216a6fd9effa076d1953e6b0f6d3f3dd976c79c062",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "fcd51ac0472dd42e9d89f6e432b5fd66a39014e5b9a302730851248d9a092a1a",
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weightingIdentifier: null,
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recipe: "legacy_current_doctrine_v1",
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expectedStatus: "derived",
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tolerance: DERIVED_TOLERANCE,
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-f0d2ef6-09292aa0d5db-20260617T032307Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-f0d2ef6-09292aa0d5db-20260617T032307Z",
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buildSha: "09292aa",
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producerCommit: "09292aa0d5dbe938cb91a776d9015bebf3b5fc6c",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 2,
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targetCount: 5097,
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "5ee947622fce9ea6ea267b17ad29211bb50e7034975bc4f8c624d41aa1fc5e96",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "8f594a608663139bf1bcbbfdea70ef5fc269bdce737fe0861688c6602025fca7",
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weightingIdentifier: null,
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recipe: "legacy_current_doctrine_v1",
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expectedStatus: "derived",
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tolerance: DERIVED_TOLERANCE,
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-losscap1-01d14d5-20260618",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-losscap1-01d14d5-20260618",
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buildSha: "01d14d5",
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producerCommit: "01d14d5eb38a431c2d7cc7806d7ed9d9c689dc1a",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 2,
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targetCount: 4408,
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "69be18026dde429e6a8d620b8ed14fcff2d72e5a04930a59292dcadf05cd7196",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "9e7b1a5d09f8e6c920285ec37c40a87afebaddb8e0b29f6a670f241d01c42dce",
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weightingIdentifier: HISTORICAL_WEIGHTING,
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recipe: "historical_sqrt_value_50_50_v1",
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-losscap1-5b54f6d-20260618",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-losscap1-5b54f6d-20260618",
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buildSha: "5b54f6d",
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producerCommit: "5b54f6d9ec192e4cda4b21b802ba1491f8b3c15a",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 2,
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targetCount: 4408,
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "69be18026dde429e6a8d620b8ed14fcff2d72e5a04930a59292dcadf05cd7196",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "9e7b1a5d09f8e6c920285ec37c40a87afebaddb8e0b29f6a670f241d01c42dce",
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weightingIdentifier: HISTORICAL_WEIGHTING,
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recipe: "historical_sqrt_value_50_50_v1",
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618",
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buildSha: "996401a",
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producerCommit: "996401aadb25d3acd69ddf54d149fb8d96b28a78",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 2,
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targetCount: 6033,
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "dfb8af65980d71b2e05afb2ccf5d77d635d373b8e65aee0af6092bbb66c12fa1",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "0c6be6f5878af8ee69cb672285073fd4db1fc773ec85d450cd7a8e96bf356af5",
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weightingIdentifier: HISTORICAL_WEIGHTING_CAP_1000,
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recipe: "historical_sqrt_value_50_50_v1",
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-c86a631-6e1bcd0271a5-20260619T002242Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-c86a631-6e1bcd0271a5-20260619T002242Z",
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buildSha: "6e1bcd0",
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producerCommit: "6e1bcd0271a50fbf5c797dd3b94f2905401f8fb8",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 2,
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targetCount: 4408,
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "69be18026dde429e6a8d620b8ed14fcff2d72e5a04930a59292dcadf05cd7196",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "13e135245cd069a347a7fad14044a1cb917dd057b66832808e97c24421dcb9f1",
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weightingIdentifier: HISTORICAL_WEIGHTING,
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recipe: "historical_sqrt_value_50_50_v1",
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-f0af251-0ad74ed34493-20260619T181855Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-f0af251-0ad74ed34493-20260619T181855Z",
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buildSha: "0ad74ed",
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producerCommit: "0ad74ed344935e29d7c46703ce457ae6e8847b4d",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 2,
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targetCount: 4356,
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "0f562e9142dd33adb31339b457c6d5959575070b1a53c1dba5d0093b64664d60",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "67b491fe59f72e4622fd0d13c0f6a71e43e1c6ed74afae4032cb238515bd0269",
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weightingIdentifier: HISTORICAL_WEIGHTING,
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weightingIdentifier: HISTORICAL_WEIGHTING,
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|
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recipe: "newer_sqrt_value_50_50_v2",
|
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|
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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|
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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},
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-formula-owned-fix-a56aefd-capgains-b2500-20260626T122636Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-formula-owned-fix-a56aefd-capgains-b2500-20260626T122636Z",
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weightingIdentifier: HISTORICAL_WEIGHTING,
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|
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recipe: "newer_sqrt_value_50_50_v2",
|
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|
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
|
|
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|
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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|
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-cd-concept-budget-dbbdcec-512e-b2500-r2-20260627T022640Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-cd-concept-budget-dbbdcec-512e-b2500-r2-20260627T022640Z",
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weightingIdentifier: CONCEPT_BUDGET_WEIGHTING,
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recipe: "concept_budget_sqrt_value_50_50_v3",
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|
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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|
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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},
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701",
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weightingIdentifier: CONCEPT_BUDGET_WEIGHTING,
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recipe: "concept_budget_sqrt_value_50_50_v3",
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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|
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},
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{
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|
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z",
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "f83ddb07ea4fed60f835086ae2405e3787df5c24563b9c0796a52464b2a4ca0c",
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weightingIdentifier: CONCEPT_BUDGET_WEIGHTING,
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|
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recipe: "concept_budget_sqrt_value_50_50_v3",
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|
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|
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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|
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|
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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|
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},
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|
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{
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z",
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buildSha: "564a2c7",
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producerCommit: "564a2c7d3b3624e7042401d37c6b739f1bce76b3",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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weightingIdentifier: CONCEPT_BUDGET_WEIGHTING,
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recipe: "concept_budget_sqrt_value_50_50_v3",
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|
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|
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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|
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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|
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},
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|
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{
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|
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-buildl-acs-local-36de5d9a-20260712T104640Z",
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|
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-buildl-acs-local-36de5d9a-20260712T104640Z",
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buildSha: "32d446b",
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|
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releaseFamily: "local_area",
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|
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diagnosticsSchema: 4,
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|
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: null,
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weightingIdentifier: null,
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recipe: "uniform_target_scale_cap_100pct_v1",
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|
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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|
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tolerance: SIX_DECIMAL_TOLERANCE,
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|
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},
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|
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|
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{
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|
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-buildm-sparse-rmloss100-98bf731-20260717T075101Z",
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|
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-buildm-sparse-rmloss100-98bf731-20260717T075101Z",
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buildSha: "98bf731",
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producerCommit: "98bf731b1d26f2b0880732f2331e503108afc90e",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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|
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diagnosticsSchema: 4,
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|
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targetCount: 5667,
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|
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "de400ebf81cdf7e64b4cb869d18e1bd8917ed6936b7878369e92195184ad540d",
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|
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weightingIdentifier: CONCEPT_BUDGET_WEIGHTING,
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|
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recipe: "concept_budget_sqrt_value_50_50_v3",
|
|
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|
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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|
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|
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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|
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},
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|
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|
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{
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|
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-buildn-sparse-rmloss100-c3e378a-20260722T010408Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-buildn-sparse-rmloss100-c3e378a-20260722T010408Z",
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buildSha: "c3e378a",
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producerCommit: "c3e378a91d847ff5138e485574c601f96f8ac468",
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releaseFamily: "national",
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diagnosticsSchema: 4,
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|
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targetCount: 5672,
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weightingIdentifier: CONCEPT_BUDGET_WEIGHTING,
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|
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recipe: "concept_budget_sqrt_value_50_50_v3",
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|
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|
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
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|
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|
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
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|
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|
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},
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|
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|
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{
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|
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
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|
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releaseFamily: "national",
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|
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diagnosticsSchema: 5,
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|
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targetCount: 5672,
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|
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "b6c5885ba338a0f0fde58775def34f5ebb523703e2532945c348ea598332de0c",
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weightingIdentifier: CONCEPT_BUDGET_WEIGHTING,
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|
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recipe: "concept_budget_sqrt_value_50_50_v3",
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|
381
|
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
|
|
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|
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tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
|
|
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|
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},
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|
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|
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{
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|
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|
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releaseId: "populace-us-2024-buildo-acs-local-77e2061-20260724T110908Z",
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|
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|
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-buildo-acs-local-77e2061-20260724T110908Z",
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|
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buildSha: "77e2061",
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388
|
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389
|
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releaseFamily: "local_area",
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|
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|
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diagnosticsSchema: null,
|
|
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|
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targetCount: 4461,
|
|
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|
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|
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: null,
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|
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weightingIdentifier: null,
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|
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|
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recipe: "uniform_target_scale_cap_100pct_v1",
|
|
396
|
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expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
|
|
397
|
+
tolerance: SIX_DECIMAL_TOLERANCE,
|
|
398
|
+
},
|
|
399
|
+
{
|
|
400
|
+
releaseId: "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z",
|
|
401
|
+
buildId: "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z",
|
|
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|
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diagnosticsSha256: "870449b44e86b13b25bcea1a57f0e7af37f4d4db18be815eea3acdf9fe6eb40e",
|
|
403
|
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buildSha: "cae8640",
|
|
404
|
+
producerCommit: "cae8640f9e65e274aea65c7916cb37b956978e32",
|
|
405
|
+
releaseFamily: "national",
|
|
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|
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diagnosticsSchema: 5,
|
|
407
|
+
targetCount: 5659,
|
|
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|
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "49861b0d1c7e528256c3548293e8f304b9ca726db96f92481a709e87437fffbe",
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|
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|
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: "49bb0fe3dfd4c399e7b3f900b0e5ba29d9d72413d9170dfc155a9fa5e91c6f6f",
|
|
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|
+
weightingIdentifier: CONCEPT_BUDGET_WEIGHTING,
|
|
411
|
+
lossCap: 1,
|
|
412
|
+
recipe: "concept_budget_sqrt_value_50_50_v3",
|
|
413
|
+
expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
|
|
414
|
+
tolerance: FLOATING_POINT_TOLERANCE,
|
|
415
|
+
},
|
|
416
|
+
{
|
|
417
|
+
releaseId: "populace-us-2024-buildo-acs-local-767312d60-20260923T074941Z",
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|
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|
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buildId: "populace-us-2024-buildo-acs-local-767312d60-20260923T074941Z",
|
|
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|
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diagnosticsSha256: "f39d10a72415eb85ac0faa231f7970bffcc408bd53ef0f05985ea8dd0ac94903",
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|
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buildSha: "767312d60",
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|
421
|
+
producerCommit: null,
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|
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|
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releaseFamily: "local_area",
|
|
423
|
+
diagnosticsSchema: null,
|
|
424
|
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targetCount: 4459,
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|
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|
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orderedTargetNamesSha256: "3ec3156612fa78d193055eaba7a5212b2bc21b533c037670cd7e8d3af7735500",
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|
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|
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producerTargetSurfaceSha256: null,
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weightingIdentifier: null,
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|
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recipe: "uniform_target_scale_cap_100pct_v1",
|
|
429
|
+
expectedStatus: "exact_reconstructed",
|
|
430
|
+
tolerance: SIX_DECIMAL_TOLERANCE,
|
|
431
|
+
},
|
|
432
|
+
] as const;
|
|
433
|
+
|
|
434
|
+
export const HISTORICAL_ATTRIBUTION_SUPPORT_BY_RELEASE = new Map(
|
|
435
|
+
HISTORICAL_ATTRIBUTION_SUPPORT.map((entry) => [entry.releaseId, entry]),
|
|
436
|
+
);
|