@policyengine/calibration-tree 0.0.0-stage → 0.1.1

package/src/staging-artifact.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,1411 @@
+import { createHash } from "node:crypto";
+
+import {
+  type Calibration,
+  type MicrocosmCountry,
+  asObject,
+  assertSafeReleaseId,
+  assertSafeReleaseOrBuildFolderId,
+  buildCalibration,
+  buildComparison,
+  latestMicrocosmCalibrationSummary,
+  latestMicrocosmTargetDiagnosticsPage,
+  loadCountryRepositoryHashedJson,
+  loadPointerReleaseId,
+  loadPublishedCutReleases,
+  loadRecordedReleases,
+  loadRelease,
+  loadReleases,
+  microcosmCountryGeography,
+  microcosmRepo,
+  type ReleaseEntry,
+} from "./latest-artifact";
+import { readCalibrationTreeManifest } from "./calibration-tree-blob";
+import {
+  calibrationBuildsNewestFirst,
+  type CalibrationTreeManifest,
+  type CalibrationTreeManifestEntry,
+} from "./calibration-tree-manifest";
+import type { CalibrationTreeSourceArtifact } from "./calibration-tree-artifact";
+import {
+  countryRegistration,
+  resolveRegisteredStagingRepository,
+  stagingLocalAreaPipelines,
+  type RepositoryEnvironment,
+  type ResolvedRepository,
+} from "./countries";
+import {
+  type ReformValidation,
+  buildReformValidation,
+} from "./reforms";
+import {
+  buildTargetChangeDataset,
+  type TargetChangeDataset,
+} from "./target-change";
+import { buildTargetChangeDatasetFromSummaryAndCalibration } from "./calibration-build-comparison";
+import { loadCalibrationComparisonSource } from "./calibration-comparison-blob";
+import {
+  IncompatibleStagingDataError,
+  isStructuredStagingDocument,
+  parseStagingCalibrationProgress,
+  parseStagingEvents,
+  parseStagingManifest,
+  parseStagingProgress,
+  parseStagingRunIndex,
+  validateStagingRunConsistency,
+  type StagingSchemaVersion,
+} from "./staging-contract";
+
+type JsonObject = Record<string, unknown>;
+
+interface TargetChangeCacheEntry {
+  expiresAt: number;
+  promise: Promise<TargetChangeDataset | null>;
+}
+
+interface StagingCalibrationCacheEntry {
+  expiresAt: number;
+  promise: Promise<Calibration | null>;
+}
+
+const TARGET_CHANGE_FINAL_CACHE_SECONDS = 21_600;
+const TARGET_CHANGE_MUTABLE_CACHE_SECONDS = 30;
+const TARGET_CHANGE_CACHE_LIMIT = 8;
+const STAGING_CALIBRATION_CACHE_LIMIT = 8;
+const targetChangeCache = new Map<string, TargetChangeCacheEntry>();
+const stagingCalibrationCache = new Map<string, StagingCalibrationCacheEntry>();
+
+export const MICROCOSM_STAGING_HF_REPO_ENV = "POPULACE_STAGING_HF_REPO";
+export const MICROCOSM_STAGING_HF_REVISION_ENV = "POPULACE_STAGING_HF_REVISION";
+export type StagingRepository = ResolvedRepository;
+
+// Resolve staging telemetry from the country registry. The exported US values
+// retain the legacy API and deployment-variable behavior for existing callers.
+export function stagingRepository(
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  environment: RepositoryEnvironment = process.env,
+): StagingRepository | null {
+  return resolveRegisteredStagingRepository(country, environment);
+}
+
+export const MICROCOSM_STAGING_HF_REPO = stagingRepository("us")!.repo;
+export const MICROCOSM_STAGING_HF_REVISION = stagingRepository("us")!.revision;
+
+export async function resolveStagingRevisionSha(
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  revisionOverride?: string,
+): Promise<string> {
+  const repository = stagingSource(country, revisionOverride);
+  const response = await fetch(
+    `https://huggingface.co/api/datasets/${repository.repo}/revision/${encodeURIComponent(repository.revision)}`,
+    {
+      ...stagingFetchOptions(0, country),
+      signal: AbortSignal.timeout(30_000),
+    },
+  );
+  if (!response.ok) {
+    throw new StagingFetchError(
+      response.status,
+      `revision ${repository.revision}`,
+      repository,
+    );
+  }
+  const payload = asObject(await response.json());
+  const sha = typeof payload.sha === "string" ? payload.sha.toLowerCase() : "";
+  if (!/^[0-9a-f]{40,64}$/.test(sha)) {
+    throw new Error(
+      `Hugging Face returned an invalid commit SHA for ${repository.repo}@${repository.revision}.`,
+    );
+  }
+  return sha;
+}
+
+// Staging telemetry is served for countries registered with the `staging`
+// capability. Repository and credential selection happens in this server data
+// module and never enters the API response model.
+export function stagingUnavailableReason(country: MicrocosmCountry): string | null {
+  return stagingRepository(country)
+    ? null
+    : `${microcosmCountryGeography(country)} has no staging repository.`;
+}
+
+function requiredStagingRepository(country: MicrocosmCountry): StagingRepository {
+  const repository = stagingRepository(country);
+  if (repository) return repository;
+  throw new Error(
+    stagingUnavailableReason(country) ?? "Staging repository is not configured.",
+  );
+}
+
+function stagingResolveUrlFor(repository: StagingRepository, path: string): string {
+  return `https://huggingface.co/datasets/${repository.repo}/resolve/${repository.revision}/${path}`;
+}
+
+export function stagingResolveUrl(path: string, country: MicrocosmCountry = "us"): string {
+  return stagingResolveUrlFor(requiredStagingRepository(country), path);
+}
+
+function stagingTreeUrl(repository: StagingRepository): string {
+  return `https://huggingface.co/api/datasets/${repository.repo}/tree/${repository.revision}/runs?recursive=true`;
+}
+
+function stagingRepoUrl(repository: StagingRepository): string {
+  return `https://huggingface.co/api/datasets/${repository.repo}`;
+}
+
+function stagingSource(
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  revisionOverride?: string,
+): StagingRepository {
+  const repository = requiredStagingRepository(country);
+  return revisionOverride
+    ? { ...repository, revision: revisionOverride }
+    : repository;
+}
+
+function unavailableStaging(country: MicrocosmCountry) {
+  const detail = stagingUnavailableReason(country);
+  if (!detail) return null;
+  return {
+    available: false as const,
+    source_repo: null,
+    revision: null,
+    detail,
+  };
+}
+
+class StagingFetchError extends Error {
+  constructor(
+    public readonly status: number,
+    path: string,
+    repository: StagingRepository,
+  ) {
+    super(stagingFetchMessage(status, path, repository));
+  }
+}
+
+function stagingFetchMessage(
+  status: number,
+  path: string,
+  repository: StagingRepository,
+): string {
+  if (status === 401 || status === 403) {
+    return (
+      `Staging repository ${repository.repo} is not readable by this deployment ` +
+      `(${status} fetching ${path}). Configure its server-side read credential.`
+    );
+  }
+  if (status === 404) {
+    return `Staging artifact not found (${path}).`;
+  }
+  return `Staging fetch failed ${status}: ${path}`;
+}
+
+function stagingToken(country: MicrocosmCountry): string | undefined {
+  const tokenEnv = countryRegistration(country).staging?.token_env;
+  if (tokenEnv) return process.env[tokenEnv];
+  return process.env.HF_TOKEN ?? process.env.HUGGINGFACE_TOKEN;
+}
+
+function hfHeaders(country: MicrocosmCountry): HeadersInit | undefined {
+  const token = stagingToken(country);
+  return token ? { Authorization: `Bearer ${token}` } : undefined;
+}
+
+function stagingFetchOptions(
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+): RequestInit {
+  return {
+    headers: hfHeaders(country),
+    ...(revalidate > 0 ? { next: { revalidate } } : { cache: "no-store" as const }),
+  };
+}
+
+async function stagingJson(
+  path: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  revisionOverride?: string,
+): Promise<JsonObject> {
+  const repository = stagingSource(country, revisionOverride);
+  const res = await fetch(
+    stagingResolveUrlFor(repository, path),
+    stagingFetchOptions(revalidate, country),
+  );
+  if (!res.ok) throw new StagingFetchError(res.status, path, repository);
+  return asObject(await res.json());
+}
+
+async function stagingJsonOrNull(
+  path: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  revisionOverride?: string,
+): Promise<JsonObject | null> {
+  try {
+    return await stagingJson(path, revalidate, country, revisionOverride);
+  } catch (error) {
+    if (error instanceof StagingFetchError && error.status !== 404) throw error;
+    return null;
+  }
+}
+
+interface HashedStagingJson {
+  payload: JsonObject;
+  sha256: string;
+  source: CalibrationTreeSourceArtifact;
+}
+
+async function stagingHashedJsonOrNull(
+  path: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  revisionOverride?: string,
+): Promise<HashedStagingJson | null> {
+  const repository = stagingSource(country, revisionOverride);
+  const res = await fetch(
+    stagingResolveUrlFor(repository, path),
+    stagingFetchOptions(revalidate, country),
+  );
+  if (!res.ok) {
+    if (res.status === 404) return null;
+    throw new StagingFetchError(res.status, path, repository);
+  }
+  const bytes = new Uint8Array(await res.arrayBuffer());
+  let parsed: unknown;
+  try {
+    parsed = JSON.parse(new TextDecoder().decode(bytes));
+  } catch {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(`${path} is not valid JSON.`);
+  }
+  if (!parsed || typeof parsed !== "object" || Array.isArray(parsed)) {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(`${path} must contain a JSON object.`);
+  }
+  const sha256 = createHash("sha256").update(bytes).digest("hex");
+  return {
+    payload: parsed as JsonObject,
+    sha256,
+    source: {
+      path,
+      sha256,
+      hfRepo: repository.repo,
+      hfCommitSha: repository.revision,
+    },
+  };
+}
+
+async function stagingTextOrNull(
+  path: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  revisionOverride?: string,
+): Promise<string | null> {
+  const repository = stagingSource(country, revisionOverride);
+  const res = await fetch(
+    stagingResolveUrlFor(repository, path),
+    stagingFetchOptions(revalidate, country),
+  );
+  if (!res.ok) {
+    if (res.status === 404) return null;
+    throw new StagingFetchError(res.status, path, repository);
+  }
+  return res.text();
+}
+
+async function stagingTree(
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  revisionOverride?: string,
+): Promise<JsonObject[]> {
+  const repository = stagingSource(country, revisionOverride);
+  const entries: JsonObject[] = [];
+  const visited = new Set<string>();
+  let url: string | null = stagingTreeUrl(repository);
+  while (url) {
+    if (visited.has(url)) {
+      throw new Error("Staging repository tree pagination repeated a page URL.");
+    }
+    visited.add(url);
+    const res: Response = await fetch(
+      url,
+      stagingFetchOptions(revalidate, country),
+    );
+    if (!res.ok) throw new StagingFetchError(res.status, "runs tree", repository);
+    const tree: unknown = await res.json();
+    if (!Array.isArray(tree)) {
+      throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(
+        "runs tree response must be an array.",
+      );
+    }
+    entries.push(...tree.map(asObject));
+    const link = res.headers.get("link") ?? "";
+    const next = /<([^>]+)>;\s*rel="next"/.exec(link);
+    url = next ? next[1] : null;
+  }
+  return entries;
+}
+
+export interface StagingRunSummary {
+  run_id: string;
+  candidate_release_id: string | null;
+  release_id: string | null;
+  country_code: string | null;
+  run_kind: string | null;
+  non_release: boolean | null;
+  schema_version: StagingSchemaVersion | null;
+  status: string | null;
+  stage: string | null;
+  started_at: string | null;
+  updated_at: string | null;
+  progress_path: string;
+  run_manifest_path: string;
+}
+
+export interface IncompatibleStagingRun {
+  run_id: string;
+  run_manifest_path: string;
+  detail: string;
+}
+
+export interface StagingRunDetail {
+  available: boolean;
+  source_repo: string | null;
+  revision: string | null;
+  detail?: string | null;
+  run_id: string;
+  candidate_release_id: string | null;
+  release_id: string | null;
+  country_code: string | null;
+  run_kind: string | null;
+  non_release: boolean | null;
+  schema_version: StagingSchemaVersion | null;
+  delivery: JsonObject | null;
+  progress: JsonObject | null;
+  run_manifest: JsonObject | null;
+  calibration_progress: JsonObject | null;
+  events: JsonObject[];
+  has_calibration: boolean;
+  calibration: ReturnType<typeof latestMicrocosmCalibrationSummary> | null;
+  reform_validation: ReformValidation | null;
+  build_manifest: JsonObject | null;
+  release_manifest: JsonObject | null;
+}
+
+function stringValue(value: unknown): string | null {
+  return typeof value === "string" && value.trim() ? value : null;
+}
+
+function booleanValue(value: unknown): boolean | null {
+  return typeof value === "boolean" ? value : null;
+}
+
+function schemaVersionValue(value: unknown): StagingSchemaVersion | null {
+  return value === 1 || value === 2 || value === 3 ? value : null;
+}
+
+function objectOrNull(value: unknown): JsonObject | null {
+  return value != null && typeof value === "object" && !Array.isArray(value)
+    ? (value as JsonObject)
+    : null;
+}
+
+export function stagingTargetChangeCacheTtlSeconds(status: unknown): number {
+  return ["passed", "published", "completed", "blocked", "failed"].includes(
+    String(status ?? "").trim(),
+  )
+    ? TARGET_CHANGE_FINAL_CACHE_SECONDS
+    : TARGET_CHANGE_MUTABLE_CACHE_SECONDS;
+}
+
+function summaryFromProgress(runId: string, progress: JsonObject | null): StagingRunSummary {
+  const candidate = stringValue(progress?.candidate_release_id);
+  return {
+    run_id: runId,
+    candidate_release_id: candidate,
+    release_id: stringValue(progress?.release_id),
+    country_code: stringValue(progress?.country_code),
+    run_kind: stringValue(progress?.run_kind),
+    non_release: booleanValue(progress?.non_release),
+    schema_version: schemaVersionValue(progress?.schema_version),
+    status: stringValue(progress?.status),
+    stage: stringValue(progress?.stage),
+    started_at: stringValue(progress?.started_at),
+    updated_at: stringValue(progress?.updated_at),
+    progress_path: `runs/${runId}/progress.json`,
+    run_manifest_path: `runs/${runId}/run_manifest.json`,
+  };
+}
+
+function summaryFromManifest(
+  runId: string,
+  manifest: JsonObject,
+): StagingRunSummary {
+  return {
+    run_id: runId,
+    candidate_release_id: stringValue(manifest.candidate_release_id),
+    release_id: stringValue(manifest.release_id),
+    country_code: stringValue(manifest.country_code),
+    run_kind: stringValue(manifest.run_kind),
+    non_release: booleanValue(manifest.non_release),
+    schema_version: schemaVersionValue(manifest.schema_version),
+    status: stringValue(manifest.status),
+    stage: stringValue(manifest.stage),
+    started_at: stringValue(manifest.started_at),
+    updated_at: stringValue(manifest.updated_at),
+    progress_path: `runs/${runId}/progress.json`,
+    run_manifest_path: `runs/${runId}/run_manifest.json`,
+  };
+}
+
+function sortRuns(a: StagingRunSummary, b: StagingRunSummary): number {
+  return (
+    compareTimestampsDescending(a.updated_at, b.updated_at) ||
+    compareTimestampsDescending(a.started_at, b.started_at) ||
+    b.run_id.localeCompare(a.run_id)
+  );
+}
+
+function compareTimestampsDescending(
+  a: string | null,
+  b: string | null,
+): number {
+  const aTime = a == null ? Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY : Date.parse(a);
+  const bTime = b == null ? Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY : Date.parse(b);
+  const normalizedA = Number.isNaN(aTime) ? Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY : aTime;
+  const normalizedB = Number.isNaN(bTime) ? Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY : bTime;
+  if (normalizedA === normalizedB) return 0;
+  return normalizedB > normalizedA ? 1 : -1;
+}
+
+const RUN_PATH = /^runs\/([A-Za-z0-9][A-Za-z0-9._-]*)\//;
+const RUN_MANIFEST_PATH =
+  /^runs\/([A-Za-z0-9][A-Za-z0-9._-]*)\/run_manifest\.json$/;
+
+export async function loadStagingRuns(
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry = "us",
+  revisionOverride?: string,
+) {
+  const unavailable = unavailableStaging(country);
+  if (unavailable) {
+    return {
+      ...unavailable,
+      truncated: false,
+      runs: [] as StagingRunSummary[],
+      incompatible_runs: [] as IncompatibleStagingRun[],
+    };
+  }
+  const repository = stagingSource(country, revisionOverride);
+  let treeMissing = false;
+  let tree: JsonObject[] = [];
+  try {
+    tree = await stagingTree(revalidate, country, revisionOverride);
+  } catch (error) {
+    if (!(error instanceof StagingFetchError) || error.status !== 404) throw error;
+    // A staging repo may exist before any tree listing is public.
+    treeMissing = true;
+  }
+
+  const manifestPaths = new Map<string, string>();
+  const listedRunIds = new Set<string>();
+  for (const entry of tree) {
+    if (entry.type !== "file" || typeof entry.path !== "string") continue;
+    const runMatch = RUN_PATH.exec(entry.path);
+    if (runMatch) listedRunIds.add(runMatch[1]);
+    const manifestMatch = RUN_MANIFEST_PATH.exec(entry.path);
+    if (manifestMatch) manifestPaths.set(manifestMatch[1], entry.path);
+  }
+
+  const manifestResults = await Promise.all(
+    [...manifestPaths].map(async ([runId, path]) => {
+      try {
+        const manifest = parseStagingManifest(
+          await stagingJson(path, revalidate, country, revisionOverride),
+        );
+        if (manifest.run_id !== runId) {
+          throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(
+            `run manifest id ${String(manifest.run_id)} does not match directory ${runId}.`,
+          );
+        }
+        validateStagingRunConsistency(runId, { runManifest: manifest });
+        return { manifest, problem: null };
+      } catch (error) {
+        return {
+          manifest: null,
+          problem: {
+            run_id: runId,
+            run_manifest_path: path,
+            detail: error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error),
+          } satisfies IncompatibleStagingRun,
+        };
+      }
+    }),
+  );
+  const listedManifests = manifestResults.flatMap(({ manifest }) =>
+    manifest == null ? [] : [manifest],
+  );
+  const incompatibleRuns = manifestResults.flatMap(({ problem }) =>
+    problem == null ? [] : [problem],
+  );
+  const structuredManifests = listedManifests.filter(isStructuredStagingDocument);
+  const structuredManifestIds = new Set(
+    structuredManifests.map((manifest) => String(manifest.run_id)),
+  );
+  const v1ManifestIds = new Set(
+    listedManifests
+      .filter((manifest) => manifest.schema_version === 1)
+      .map((manifest) => String(manifest.run_id)),
+  );
+
+  let index: JsonObject | null = null;
+  let indexedRuns: StagingRunSummary[] = [];
+  if (treeMissing || v1ManifestIds.size > 0) {
+    index = await stagingJsonOrNull(
+      "runs.json",
+      revalidate,
+      country,
+      revisionOverride,
+    );
+    if (index?.schema_version === 1) indexedRuns = parseStagingRunIndex(index);
+  }
+
+  // HF answers 404 (not 401/403) for private repos when auth is missing or
+  // expired, so "everything 404'd" is ambiguous between "no runs yet" and "we
+  // can't see the repo". Disambiguate via the repo API before reporting an
+  // empty list — a silent empty state hides a broken token.
+  if (index == null && treeMissing && listedManifests.length === 0) {
+    const repoRes = await fetch(
+      stagingRepoUrl(repository),
+      stagingFetchOptions(revalidate, country),
+    );
+    if (!repoRes.ok) {
+      return {
+        available: false,
+        source_repo: repository.repo,
+        revision: repository.revision,
+        detail:
+          `Staging repository ${repository.repo} is not visible (HTTP ${repoRes.status}). ` +
+          "It is private — a missing or expired HF token reads as 404, not 401.",
+        runs: [],
+        incompatible_runs: incompatibleRuns,
+      };
+    }
+  }
+
+  const byId = new Map<string, StagingRunSummary>(
+    indexedRuns.map((run) => [run.run_id, run]),
+  );
+  const v1RunIds = new Set(v1ManifestIds);
+  if (index?.schema_version === 1) {
+    for (const runId of listedRunIds) {
+      if (!structuredManifestIds.has(runId)) v1RunIds.add(runId);
+    }
+  }
+  const missing = [...v1RunIds]
+    .filter((runId) => !byId.has(runId))
+    .sort((a, b) => (a < b ? 1 : a > b ? -1 : 0));
+  const MAX_UNINDEXED_FETCH = 50;
+  const fetched = await Promise.all(
+    missing.slice(0, MAX_UNINDEXED_FETCH).map(async (runId) => {
+      const raw = await stagingJsonOrNull(
+        `runs/${runId}/progress.json`,
+        revalidate,
+        country,
+        revisionOverride,
+      );
+      const progress = raw == null ? null : parseStagingProgress(raw);
+      validateStagingRunConsistency(runId, { progress });
+      return summaryFromProgress(runId, progress);
+    }),
+  );
+  for (const run of fetched) byId.set(run.run_id, run);
+  for (const manifest of structuredManifests) {
+    const runId = String(manifest.run_id);
+    byId.set(runId, summaryFromManifest(runId, manifest));
+  }
+  const truncated = missing.length > MAX_UNINDEXED_FETCH;
+
+  return {
+    available: true,
+    source_repo: repository.repo,
+    revision: repository.revision,
+    truncated,
+    runs: [...byId.values()].sort(sortRuns),
+    incompatible_runs: incompatibleRuns,
+  };
+}
+
+// A build that staged its finished dataset bundle records where it went in a
+// reviewed `staged_dataset` telemetry artifact: the release repository, the
+// `staged/<run_id>/` prefix, the commit and every file's digest. The bundle's
+// `calibration_diagnostics.json` is the same per-target artifact a release
+// carries, so an unreleased candidate can be inspected through the same views.
+const STAGED_BUNDLE_DIAGNOSTICS_FILE = "calibration_diagnostics.json";
+// Microcosm's UK local lane stages its outputs under the dataset's own stem,
+// so its per-target diagnostics arrive as `<dataset>.diagnostics.json`.
+const STAGED_BUNDLE_STEM_DIAGNOSTICS_SUFFIX = ".diagnostics.json";
+// A recorded file name is joined to the staged prefix in an authenticated
+// release-repository URL, so it must be one path segment.
+const STAGED_BUNDLE_FILE_NAME = /^[A-Za-z0-9][A-Za-z0-9._-]{0,200}$/;
+const STAGED_BUNDLE_LANDED = new Set(["uploaded", "already_staged"]);
+const STAGED_BUNDLE_PREFIX = /^staged\/[A-Za-z0-9][A-Za-z0-9._-]*$/;
+const GIT_COMMIT_SHA = /^[0-9a-f]{40}$/;
+const SHA_256_HEX = /^[0-9a-f]{64}$/;
+
+export interface ResolvedStagingCalibrationSource {
+  calibration: Calibration;
+  candidateReleaseId: string;
+  updatedAt: string | null;
+  stagingRepo: string;
+  stagingRevision: string;
+  sourceArtifacts: {
+    calibrationDiagnostics: CalibrationTreeSourceArtifact;
+    buildManifest: CalibrationTreeSourceArtifact | null;
+    releaseManifest: CalibrationTreeSourceArtifact | null;
+    stagingRunManifest: CalibrationTreeSourceArtifact | null;
+    stagingProgress: CalibrationTreeSourceArtifact | null;
+    stagedDatasetReceipt: CalibrationTreeSourceArtifact | null;
+  };
+}
+
+// The bundle's per-target diagnostics file among the files its receipt
+// recorded: `calibration_diagnostics.json`, or else the one
+// `<dataset>.diagnostics.json`. A bundle recording none, several stem
+// files, or a stem name that is not one path segment has no target view
+// rather than a guessed one. The count includes invalid names, so an
+// invalid name beside a valid one still makes the receipt ambiguous.
+export function stagedBundleDiagnosticsFile(files: JsonObject | null): string | null {
+  if (!files) return null;
+  if (Object.hasOwn(files, STAGED_BUNDLE_DIAGNOSTICS_FILE)) {
+    return STAGED_BUNDLE_DIAGNOSTICS_FILE;
+  }
+  const stemFiles = Object.keys(files).filter((name) =>
+    name.endsWith(STAGED_BUNDLE_STEM_DIAGNOSTICS_SUFFIX)
+  );
+  return stemFiles.length === 1 && STAGED_BUNDLE_FILE_NAME.test(stemFiles[0])
+    ? stemFiles[0]
+    : null;
+}
+
+async function loadStagedBundleCalibrationSource(
+  runId: string,
+  runManifest: JsonObject | null,
+  progress: JsonObject | null,
+  candidateReleaseId: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  stagingRevision: string,
+  runManifestSource: CalibrationTreeSourceArtifact | null,
+  progressSource: CalibrationTreeSourceArtifact | null,
+): Promise<ResolvedStagingCalibrationSource | null> {
+  const staging = stagingSource(country, stagingRevision);
+  const artifacts = objectOrNull(runManifest?.artifacts);
+  const stagedArtifact = objectOrNull(artifacts?.staged_dataset);
+  const receiptPath = stringValue(stagedArtifact?.staging_path);
+  if (!receiptPath) return null;
+  const receipt = await stagingHashedJsonOrNull(
+    receiptPath,
+    revalidate,
+    country,
+    stagingRevision,
+  );
+  if (!receipt) {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(
+      "artifact staged_dataset is declared but its receipt is absent.",
+    );
+  }
+  if (receipt.sha256 !== stringValue(stagedArtifact?.sha256)) {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(
+      "artifact staged_dataset digest does not match its run manifest declaration.",
+    );
+  }
+  const delivery = receipt.payload;
+  // A skipped, failed or disabled staging leaves nothing to read.
+  if (!STAGED_BUNDLE_LANDED.has(String(delivery.status))) return null;
+  if (stringValue(delivery.run_id) !== runId) {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError("staged dataset receipt names another run.");
+  }
+  const repository = stringValue(delivery.repository);
+  const prefix = stringValue(delivery.prefix);
+  const revision = stringValue(delivery.revision);
+  if (!repository || !prefix || !revision) {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(
+      "staged dataset receipt is missing its repository, prefix or revision.",
+    );
+  }
+  // The release credential is only ever sent to the country's registered
+  // release repository, never to a repository a telemetry file names.
+  if (repository !== microcosmRepo(country)) {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(
+      `staged dataset repository ${repository} is not ${microcosmCountryGeography(country)}'s ` +
+        "registered release repository; staged bundles are read only from there.",
+    );
+  }
+  if (!STAGED_BUNDLE_PREFIX.test(prefix) || prefix !== `staged/${runId}`) {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError("staged dataset prefix is not staged/<run_id>.");
+  }
+  if (!GIT_COMMIT_SHA.test(revision)) {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError("staged dataset revision is not a commit sha.");
+  }
+  const files = objectOrNull(delivery.files);
+  const diagnosticsFile = stagedBundleDiagnosticsFile(files);
+  // A bundle without calibration diagnostics (a spine, say) has no target view.
+  if (!diagnosticsFile) return null;
+  const declared = objectOrNull(files?.[diagnosticsFile]);
+  const expectedDigest = stringValue(declared?.sha256);
+  if (!expectedDigest || !SHA_256_HEX.test(expectedDigest)) return null;
+  const diagnostics = await loadCountryRepositoryHashedJson(
+    `${prefix}/${diagnosticsFile}`,
+    revalidate,
+    country,
+    revision,
+  );
+  if (!diagnostics) {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(
+      `staged bundle ${prefix} records ${diagnosticsFile} but the file is absent at revision ${revision}.`,
+    );
+  }
+  if (diagnostics.sha256 !== expectedDigest) {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(
+      `staged bundle ${diagnosticsFile} does not match the digest the run recorded.`,
+    );
+  }
+  const updatedAt = stringValue(progress?.updated_at) ??
+    stringValue(runManifest?.updated_at);
+  const calibration = buildCalibration(
+    diagnostics.payload,
+    candidateReleaseId,
+    updatedAt,
+    {},
+    {},
+    {},
+    country,
+    "huggingface_staged_bundle",
+    diagnostics.sha256,
+    revision,
+  );
+  return {
+    calibration,
+    candidateReleaseId,
+    updatedAt,
+    stagingRepo: staging.repo,
+    stagingRevision,
+    sourceArtifacts: {
+      calibrationDiagnostics: {
+        path: `${prefix}/${diagnosticsFile}`,
+        sha256: diagnostics.sha256,
+        hfRepo: repository,
+        hfCommitSha: revision,
+      },
+      buildManifest: null,
+      releaseManifest: null,
+      stagingRunManifest: runManifestSource,
+      stagingProgress: progressSource,
+      stagedDatasetReceipt: receipt.source,
+    },
+  };
+}
+
+export async function loadStagingCalibration(
+  runId: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry = "us",
+): Promise<Calibration | null> {
+  if (revalidate <= 0) {
+    return loadStagingCalibrationUncached(runId, revalidate, country);
+  }
+  const cacheKey = `${country}:${runId}:${revalidate}`;
+  const now = Date.now();
+  for (const [key, entry] of stagingCalibrationCache) {
+    if (entry.expiresAt <= now) stagingCalibrationCache.delete(key);
+  }
+  const cached = stagingCalibrationCache.get(cacheKey);
+  if (cached && cached.expiresAt > now) return cached.promise;
+
+  const promise = loadStagingCalibrationUncached(runId, revalidate, country);
+  stagingCalibrationCache.set(cacheKey, {
+    promise,
+    expiresAt: now + revalidate * 1000,
+  });
+  while (stagingCalibrationCache.size > STAGING_CALIBRATION_CACHE_LIMIT) {
+    const oldest = stagingCalibrationCache.keys().next().value;
+    if (typeof oldest !== "string") break;
+    stagingCalibrationCache.delete(oldest);
+  }
+  try {
+    const result = await promise;
+    if (!result) stagingCalibrationCache.delete(cacheKey);
+    return result;
+  } catch (error) {
+    stagingCalibrationCache.delete(cacheKey);
+    throw error;
+  }
+}
+
+async function loadStagingCalibrationUncached(
+  runId: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+): Promise<Calibration | null> {
+  const source = await resolveStagingCalibrationSource(
+    runId,
+    revalidate,
+    country,
+  );
+  return source?.calibration ?? null;
+}
+
+export async function resolveStagingCalibrationSource(
+  runId: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry = "us",
+  revisionOverride?: string,
+): Promise<ResolvedStagingCalibrationSource | null> {
+  if (stagingUnavailableReason(country)) return null;
+  assertSafeReleaseId(runId, "run");
+  const staging = stagingSource(country, revisionOverride);
+  const [progressArtifact, runManifestArtifact] = await Promise.all([
+    stagingHashedJsonOrNull(
+      `runs/${runId}/progress.json`,
+      revalidate,
+      country,
+      staging.revision,
+    ),
+    stagingHashedJsonOrNull(
+      `runs/${runId}/run_manifest.json`,
+      revalidate,
+      country,
+      staging.revision,
+    ),
+  ]);
+  const progress = progressArtifact == null
+    ? null
+    : parseStagingProgress(progressArtifact.payload);
+  const runManifest =
+    runManifestArtifact == null
+      ? null
+      : parseStagingManifest(runManifestArtifact.payload);
+  validateStagingRunConsistency(runId, { progress, runManifest });
+  const candidateReleaseId =
+    stringValue(progress?.candidate_release_id) ??
+    stringValue(runManifest?.candidate_release_id) ??
+    runId;
+  const artifacts = objectOrNull(runManifest?.artifacts);
+  const diagnosticsArtifact = objectOrNull(artifacts?.calibration_diagnostics);
+  const structured = isStructuredStagingDocument(runManifest);
+  const diagnosticsPath = structured
+    ? stringValue(diagnosticsArtifact?.staging_path)
+    : `runs/${runId}/calibration_diagnostics.json`;
+  if (!diagnosticsPath) {
+    // No telemetry diagnostics artifact: a run that staged its dataset bundle
+    // carries the same diagnostics there.
+    return loadStagedBundleCalibrationSource(
+      runId,
+      runManifest,
+      progress,
+      candidateReleaseId,
+      revalidate,
+      country,
+      staging.revision,
+      runManifestArtifact?.source ?? null,
+      progressArtifact?.source ?? null,
+    );
+  }
+  const diagnostics = await stagingHashedJsonOrNull(
+    diagnosticsPath,
+    revalidate,
+    country,
+    staging.revision,
+  );
+  if (!diagnostics) {
+    if (structured && diagnosticsArtifact) {
+      throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(
+        "artifact calibration_diagnostics is declared but absent.",
+      );
+    }
+    return null;
+  }
+  const expectedDigest = stringValue(diagnosticsArtifact?.sha256);
+  if (structured && diagnostics.sha256 !== expectedDigest) {
+    throw new IncompatibleStagingDataError(
+      `artifact calibration_diagnostics digest does not match its run manifest declaration.`,
+    );
+  }
+  const [buildManifest, releaseManifest] = await Promise.all([
+    stagingHashedJsonOrNull(
+      `runs/${runId}/build_manifest.json`,
+      revalidate,
+      country,
+      staging.revision,
+    ),
+    stagingHashedJsonOrNull(
+      `runs/${runId}/release_manifest.json`,
+      revalidate,
+      country,
+      staging.revision,
+    ),
+  ]);
+  const updatedAt = stringValue(progress?.updated_at) ??
+    stringValue(runManifest?.updated_at);
+  const calibration = buildCalibration(
+    diagnostics.payload,
+    candidateReleaseId,
+    updatedAt,
+    buildManifest?.payload ?? {},
+    releaseManifest?.payload ?? {},
+    {},
+    country,
+    "huggingface_live",
+    diagnostics.sha256,
+    staging.revision,
+  );
+  return {
+    calibration,
+    candidateReleaseId,
+    updatedAt,
+    stagingRepo: staging.repo,
+    stagingRevision: staging.revision,
+    sourceArtifacts: {
+      calibrationDiagnostics: diagnostics.source,
+      buildManifest: buildManifest?.source ?? null,
+      releaseManifest: releaseManifest?.source ?? null,
+      stagingRunManifest: runManifestArtifact?.source ?? null,
+      stagingProgress: progressArtifact?.source ?? null,
+      stagedDatasetReceipt: null,
+    },
+  };
+}
+
+export async function loadStagingTargetChangeDataset(
+  runId: string,
+  releaseId: string,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry = "us",
+): Promise<TargetChangeDataset | null> {
+  if (stagingUnavailableReason(country)) return null;
+  assertSafeReleaseId(runId, "run");
+  assertSafeReleaseOrBuildFolderId(releaseId, "release");
+  const progress = await stagingJsonOrNull(
+    `runs/${runId}/progress.json`,
+    TARGET_CHANGE_MUTABLE_CACHE_SECONDS,
+    country,
+  );
+  const parsedProgress = progress == null ? null : parseStagingProgress(progress);
+  validateStagingRunConsistency(runId, { progress: parsedProgress });
+  const ttlSeconds = stagingTargetChangeCacheTtlSeconds(parsedProgress?.status);
+  const cacheKey = `${country}:${runId}:${releaseId}`;
+  const now = Date.now();
+  for (const [key, entry] of targetChangeCache) {
+    if (entry.expiresAt <= now) targetChangeCache.delete(key);
+  }
+  const cached = targetChangeCache.get(cacheKey);
+  if (cached && cached.expiresAt > now) return cached.promise;
+
+  const promise = Promise.all([
+    loadRelease(releaseId, TARGET_CHANGE_FINAL_CACHE_SECONDS, country),
+    loadStagingCalibration(runId, ttlSeconds, country),
+  ]).then(([release, candidate]) =>
+    candidate ? buildTargetChangeDataset(release, candidate) : null,
+  );
+  targetChangeCache.set(cacheKey, {
+    expiresAt: now + ttlSeconds * 1000,
+    promise,
+  });
+  while (targetChangeCache.size > TARGET_CHANGE_CACHE_LIMIT) {
+    const oldest = targetChangeCache.keys().next().value;
+    if (typeof oldest !== "string") break;
+    targetChangeCache.delete(oldest);
+  }
+  try {
+    const result = await promise;
+    if (!result) targetChangeCache.delete(cacheKey);
+    return result;
+  } catch (error) {
+    targetChangeCache.delete(cacheKey);
+    throw error;
+  }
+}
+
+export async function loadStagingTargetChangeDatasetFromBuild(
+  runId: string,
+  currentBuildArtifactId: string,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry = "us",
+): Promise<TargetChangeDataset | null> {
+  if (stagingUnavailableReason(country)) return null;
+  assertSafeReleaseId(runId, "run");
+  const progress = await stagingJsonOrNull(
+    `runs/${runId}/progress.json`,
+    TARGET_CHANGE_MUTABLE_CACHE_SECONDS,
+    country,
+  );
+  const parsedProgress = progress == null ? null : parseStagingProgress(progress);
+  validateStagingRunConsistency(runId, { progress: parsedProgress });
+  const ttlSeconds = stagingTargetChangeCacheTtlSeconds(parsedProgress?.status);
+  const cacheKey = `${country}:${runId}:build:${currentBuildArtifactId}`;
+  const now = Date.now();
+  for (const [key, entry] of targetChangeCache) {
+    if (entry.expiresAt <= now) targetChangeCache.delete(key);
+  }
+  const cached = targetChangeCache.get(cacheKey);
+  if (cached && cached.expiresAt > now) return cached.promise;
+
+  const promise = Promise.all([
+    loadCalibrationComparisonSource(country, currentBuildArtifactId),
+    loadStagingCalibration(runId, ttlSeconds, country),
+  ]).then(([current, candidate]) =>
+    candidate
+      ? buildTargetChangeDatasetFromSummaryAndCalibration(
+          {
+            country,
+            comparison: current.index.targetComparison,
+            targets: current.targetSummaries,
+          },
+          candidate,
+        )
+      : null,
+  );
+  targetChangeCache.set(cacheKey, {
+    promise,
+    expiresAt: now + ttlSeconds * 1000,
+  });
+  while (targetChangeCache.size > TARGET_CHANGE_CACHE_LIMIT) {
+    const oldest = targetChangeCache.keys().next().value;
+    if (typeof oldest !== "string") break;
+    targetChangeCache.delete(oldest);
+  }
+  try {
+    const result = await promise;
+    if (!result) targetChangeCache.delete(cacheKey);
+    return result;
+  } catch (error) {
+    targetChangeCache.delete(cacheKey);
+    throw error;
+  }
+}
+
+export async function loadStagingRun(
+  runId: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry = "us",
+): Promise<StagingRunDetail> {
+  const unavailable = unavailableStaging(country);
+  if (unavailable) {
+    return {
+      ...unavailable,
+      run_id: runId,
+      candidate_release_id: null,
+      release_id: null,
+      country_code: null,
+      run_kind: null,
+      non_release: null,
+      schema_version: null,
+      delivery: null,
+      progress: null,
+      run_manifest: null,
+      calibration_progress: null,
+      events: [],
+      has_calibration: false,
+      calibration: null,
+      reform_validation: null,
+      build_manifest: null,
+      release_manifest: null,
+    };
+  }
+  assertSafeReleaseId(runId, "run");
+  const repository = stagingSource(country);
+  const [
+    progressRaw,
+    runManifestRaw,
+    calibrationProgressRaw,
+    eventsText,
+    cal,
+    reformValidationRaw,
+  ] = await Promise.all([
+    stagingJsonOrNull(`runs/${runId}/progress.json`, revalidate, country),
+    stagingJsonOrNull(`runs/${runId}/run_manifest.json`, revalidate, country),
+    stagingJsonOrNull(
+      `runs/${runId}/calibration_progress.json`,
+      revalidate,
+      country,
+    ),
+    stagingTextOrNull(`runs/${runId}/events.ndjson`, revalidate, country),
+    loadStagingCalibration(runId, revalidate, country),
+    stagingJsonOrNull(`runs/${runId}/reform_validation.json`, revalidate, country),
+  ]);
+  const progress = progressRaw == null ? null : parseStagingProgress(progressRaw);
+  const runManifest =
+    runManifestRaw == null ? null : parseStagingManifest(runManifestRaw);
+  const calibrationProgress =
+    calibrationProgressRaw == null
+      ? null
+      : parseStagingCalibrationProgress(calibrationProgressRaw);
+  const events = parseStagingEvents(eventsText);
+  validateStagingRunConsistency(runId, {
+    progress,
+    runManifest,
+    calibrationProgress,
+    events,
+  });
+  const candidateReleaseId =
+    stringValue(progress?.candidate_release_id) ??
+    stringValue(runManifest?.candidate_release_id) ??
+    runId;
+  const identity = progress ?? runManifest;
+  return {
+    available: true,
+    source_repo: repository.repo,
+    revision: repository.revision,
+    run_id: runId,
+    candidate_release_id: candidateReleaseId,
+    release_id: stringValue(identity?.release_id),
+    country_code: stringValue(identity?.country_code),
+    run_kind: stringValue(identity?.run_kind),
+    non_release: booleanValue(identity?.non_release),
+    schema_version: schemaVersionValue(identity?.schema_version),
+    delivery: objectOrNull(identity?.delivery),
+    progress,
+    run_manifest: runManifest,
+    calibration_progress: calibrationProgress,
+    events,
+    has_calibration: cal != null,
+    calibration: cal ? latestMicrocosmCalibrationSummary(cal) : null,
+    reform_validation: reformValidationRaw
+      ? buildReformValidation(
+          reformValidationRaw,
+          candidateReleaseId,
+          stringValue(progress?.updated_at),
+        )
+      : null,
+    build_manifest: cal?.build_manifest ?? null,
+    release_manifest: cal?.release_manifest ?? null,
+  };
+}
+
+// Telemetry only (progress, manifest, calibration progress, events), without
+// the candidate diagnostics loadStagingRun also resolves. The build monitor
+// reads every run this way to time stages across runs.
+export async function loadStagingRunTelemetry(
+  runId: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry = "us",
+) {
+  assertSafeReleaseId(runId, "run");
+  const [progressRaw, runManifestRaw, calibrationProgressRaw, eventsText] =
+    await Promise.all([
+      stagingJsonOrNull(`runs/${runId}/progress.json`, revalidate, country),
+      stagingJsonOrNull(`runs/${runId}/run_manifest.json`, revalidate, country),
+      stagingJsonOrNull(`runs/${runId}/calibration_progress.json`, revalidate, country),
+      stagingTextOrNull(`runs/${runId}/events.ndjson`, revalidate, country),
+    ]);
+  const progress = progressRaw == null ? null : parseStagingProgress(progressRaw);
+  const runManifest =
+    runManifestRaw == null ? null : parseStagingManifest(runManifestRaw);
+  const calibrationProgress =
+    calibrationProgressRaw == null
+      ? null
+      : parseStagingCalibrationProgress(calibrationProgressRaw);
+  const events = parseStagingEvents(eventsText);
+  validateStagingRunConsistency(runId, {
+    progress,
+    runManifest,
+    calibrationProgress,
+    events,
+  });
+  return {
+    run_id: runId,
+    progress,
+    run_manifest: runManifest,
+    calibration_progress: calibrationProgress,
+    events,
+  };
+}
+
+export async function loadStagingReformValidationRaw(
+  runId: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry = "us",
+): Promise<JsonObject | null> {
+  if (stagingUnavailableReason(country)) return null;
+  assertSafeReleaseId(runId, "run");
+  return stagingJsonOrNull(
+    `runs/${runId}/reform_validation.json`,
+    revalidate,
+    country,
+  );
+}
+
+export async function loadStagingTargetDiagnostics(
+  requestUrl: string,
+  runId: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry = "us",
+) {
+  const unavailable = unavailableStaging(country);
+  if (unavailable) return { ...unavailable, run_id: runId };
+  const cal = await loadStagingCalibration(runId, revalidate, country);
+  if (!cal) {
+    return {
+      available: false,
+      run_id: runId,
+      detail: "This staging run has not uploaded calibration_diagnostics.json yet.",
+    };
+  }
+  return latestMicrocosmTargetDiagnosticsPage(requestUrl, cal);
+}
+
+// --- which release a staging candidate is compared with -----------------
+// A national candidate is compared with the country's current release, the
+// build the dashboard manifest marks latest (for the UK, the one
+// latest-national.json names). A local-area candidate calibrates local
+// geographies the national release does not, so it is compared with the
+// local-area release instead. That release has no pointer file and is never
+// promoted, so its most recently published build, as the dashboard manifest
+// records it, is used. A run is a local-area candidate when its run
+// manifest's pipeline id is one the country registers as local-area: no
+// staged receipt or manifest records a dataset role, and the dataset file
+// names change between builds.
+
+export type StagingComparisonBasis = "current_release" | "newest_local_area_release";
+
+export interface StagingComparisonRelease {
+  release_id: string;
+  basis: StagingComparisonBasis;
+  /** The run's pipeline builds local-area candidates. */
+  local_area_candidate: boolean;
+}
+
+export interface StagingComparisonReleaseDependencies {
+  runPipelineId(runId: string, country: MicrocosmCountry): Promise<string | null>;
+  currentReleaseId(country: MicrocosmCountry): Promise<string>;
+  newestLocalAreaReleaseId(country: MicrocosmCountry): Promise<string | null>;
+}
+
+/** The `pipeline.id` a staging run's manifest records, or null without one. */
+export async function stagingRunPipelineId(
+  runId: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+): Promise<string | null> {
+  assertSafeReleaseId(runId, "run");
+  const manifest = await stagingJsonOrNull(`runs/${runId}/run_manifest.json`, revalidate, country);
+  const pipelineId = asObject(manifest?.pipeline).id;
+  return typeof pipelineId === "string" && pipelineId.trim() ? pipelineId.trim() : null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * The most recently published release build whose release is local-area, by
+ * the dataset roles `releases` carries (read from releases.json, or from each
+ * release manifest, as the release picker reads them) and the publication
+ * time the dashboard manifest records. A build releases.json marks withdrawn
+ * is never chosen.
+ */
+export function newestPublishedLocalAreaRelease(
+  manifest: CalibrationTreeManifest,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  releases: readonly ReleaseEntry[],
+): CalibrationTreeManifestEntry | null {
+  const localAreaReleases = new Set(
+    releases
+      .filter((release) => release.is_local_area && release.withdrawn !== true)
+      .map((release) => release.release_id),
+  );
+  const builds = (manifest.countries[country]?.builds ?? []).filter(
+    (build) =>
+      build.kind === "release" &&
+      build.releaseId != null &&
+      localAreaReleases.has(build.releaseId),
+  );
+  return calibrationBuildsNewestFirst(builds)[0] ?? null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * The releases a local-area Staging candidate may be compared with, with
+ * their roles. A repository with releases.json lists the builds it names and
+ * nothing else; one without lists the folders on main and its published
+ * tagged builds. A releases.json that cannot be read or is refused throws,
+ * so the candidate gets no baseline.
+ */
+export async function stagingBaselineReleases(
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  manifest: CalibrationTreeManifest,
+): Promise<ReleaseEntry[]> {
+  const recorded = await loadRecordedReleases(revalidate, country, manifest);
+  if (recorded) return recorded;
+  // The published tagged builds are the ones the folder listing cannot name.
+  const folders = await loadReleases(revalidate, country);
+  const tagged = await loadPublishedCutReleases(revalidate, country, manifest, folders);
+  return [...folders, ...tagged];
+}
+
+function defaultStagingComparisonReleaseDependencies(
+  revalidate: number,
+): StagingComparisonReleaseDependencies {
+  return {
+    runPipelineId: (runId, country) => stagingRunPipelineId(runId, revalidate, country),
+    currentReleaseId: async (country) =>
+      (await loadPointerReleaseId(revalidate, country)).release_id,
+    newestLocalAreaReleaseId: async (country) => {
+      const { manifest } = await readCalibrationTreeManifest();
+      const releases = await stagingBaselineReleases(revalidate, country, manifest);
+      return newestPublishedLocalAreaRelease(manifest, country, releases)?.releaseId ?? null;
+    },
+  };
+}
+
+export async function resolveStagingComparisonRelease(
+  runId: string,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry,
+  dependencies: StagingComparisonReleaseDependencies =
+    defaultStagingComparisonReleaseDependencies(300),
+): Promise<StagingComparisonRelease> {
+  const localAreaPipelines = stagingLocalAreaPipelines(country);
+  const pipelineId = localAreaPipelines.length
+    ? await dependencies.runPipelineId(runId, country)
+    : null;
+  const localAreaCandidate = pipelineId != null && localAreaPipelines.includes(pipelineId);
+  if (localAreaCandidate) {
+    const localAreaRelease = await dependencies.newestLocalAreaReleaseId(country);
+    if (localAreaRelease) {
+      return {
+        release_id: localAreaRelease,
+        basis: "newest_local_area_release",
+        local_area_candidate: true,
+      };
+    }
+  }
+  return {
+    release_id: await dependencies.currentReleaseId(country),
+    basis: "current_release",
+    local_area_candidate: localAreaCandidate,
+  };
+}
+
+/** A staging run compared with a release, as `/microcosm/staging/compare` returns it. */
+export type StagingComparison = Awaited<ReturnType<typeof loadStagingComparison>>;
+
+export async function loadStagingComparison(
+  runId: string,
+  releaseId: string,
+  revalidate: number,
+  country: MicrocosmCountry = "us",
+) {
+  const unavailable = unavailableStaging(country);
+  if (unavailable) return { ...unavailable, run_id: runId };
+  const [release, staging] = await Promise.all([
+    loadRelease(releaseId || "latest", revalidate, country),
+    loadStagingCalibration(runId, revalidate, country),
+  ]);
+  if (!staging) {
+    return {
+      available: false,
+      run_id: runId,
+      detail: "This staging run has not uploaded calibration_diagnostics.json yet.",
+    };
+  }
+  return {
+    available: true,
+    run_id: runId,
+    ...buildComparison(release, staging),
+  };
+}