@mneme-ai/core 0.9.0 → 0.10.0

package/dist/quant/black-swan.test.d.ts

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+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=black-swan.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/black-swan.test.d.ts.map

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+{"version":3,"file":"black-swan.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/black-swan.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/quant/black-swan.test.js

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+import { describe, it, expect, beforeEach, afterEach } from "vitest";
+import { mkdtempSync, rmSync } from "node:fs";
+import { join } from "node:path";
+import { tmpdir } from "node:os";
+import { MnemeStore } from "../store/sqlite.js";
+import { findBlackSwans, classifyBlackSwanTier } from "./black-swan.js";
+let tmpDir;
+let store;
+beforeEach(() => {
+    tmpDir = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), "mneme-bs-"));
+    store = new MnemeStore(join(tmpDir, "mneme.db"));
+});
+afterEach(() => {
+    store.close();
+    rmSync(tmpDir, { recursive: true, force: true });
+});
+const cmt = (hash, date, files) => ({
+    hash,
+    shortHash: hash.slice(0, 7),
+    authorName: "alice",
+    authorEmail: "a@x",
+    authorDate: `${date}T00:00:00Z`,
+    committerDate: `${date}T00:00:00Z`,
+    subject: "commit",
+    body: "",
+    parents: [],
+    files,
+});
+function seedCommits(commits) {
+    store.upsertCommits(commits);
+    for (const c of commits) {
+        store.upsertFileChanges(c.files.map((f) => ({
+            commitHash: c.hash,
+            path: f,
+            changeKind: "M",
+            insertions: 1,
+            deletions: 0,
+        })));
+    }
+}
+function seedIncident(severity, affectedFiles) {
+    store.db
+        .prepare(`INSERT INTO incidents (id, source, title, occurred_at, severity, affected_files)
+       VALUES (?, 'manual', ?, ?, ?, ?)`)
+        .run(`inc-${Math.random()}`, "test", "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", severity, JSON.stringify(affectedFiles));
+}
+describe("classifyBlackSwanTier", () => {
+    it('"deceptive-calm" for high tail risk + few touches + critical severity', () => {
+        expect(classifyBlackSwanTier(1.5, 2, 4.5)).toBe("deceptive-calm");
+    });
+    it('"elevated" for moderate tail risk + medium severity', () => {
+        expect(classifyBlackSwanTier(0.6, 5, 3.0)).toBe("elevated");
+    });
+    it('"watch" for low tail risk', () => {
+        expect(classifyBlackSwanTier(0.3, 10, 2.0)).toBe("watch");
+    });
+    it('"background" for tiny tail risk', () => {
+        expect(classifyBlackSwanTier(0.05, 30, 1.5)).toBe("background");
+    });
+});
+describe("findBlackSwans — basic detection", () => {
+    it("returns empty array when no incidents are linked to files", () => {
+        seedCommits([cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/x.ts"])]);
+        expect(findBlackSwans(store)).toEqual([]);
+    });
+    it("flags a low-touch + high-severity file as deceptive-calm", () => {
+        seedCommits([
+            cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/refund.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "2024-06-01", ["src/refund.ts"]),
+        ]);
+        seedIncident("critical", ["src/refund.ts"]);
+        seedIncident("critical", ["src/refund.ts"]);
+        const candidates = findBlackSwans(store, { now: new Date("2024-12-01T00:00:00Z") });
+        const refund = candidates.find((c) => c.filePath === "src/refund.ts");
+        expect(refund).toBeDefined();
+        expect(refund.incidentCount).toBe(2);
+        expect(refund.avgSeverity).toBe(5);
+        expect(refund.tier).toBe("deceptive-calm");
+    });
+    it("respects maxTouches filter — high-traffic files are NOT black swans", () => {
+        const commits = Array.from({ length: 100 }, (_, i) => cmt(`a${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), `2024-${String(((i % 12) + 1)).padStart(2, "0")}-01`, ["src/hot.ts"]));
+        seedCommits(commits);
+        seedIncident("critical", ["src/hot.ts"]);
+        expect(findBlackSwans(store, { maxTouches: 30 }).find((c) => c.filePath === "src/hot.ts")).toBeUndefined();
+    });
+    it("respects minIncidents filter (default 1)", () => {
+        seedCommits([cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/never-broke.ts"])]);
+        // No incident seeded — should be excluded
+        expect(findBlackSwans(store).find((c) => c.filePath === "src/never-broke.ts")).toBeUndefined();
+    });
+    it("sorts by tailRisk descending", () => {
+        seedCommits([
+            cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/calm.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "2024-02-01", ["src/calm.ts"]),
+            cmt("b1", "2024-01-01", ["src/medium.ts"]),
+            cmt("b2", "2024-02-01", ["src/medium.ts"]),
+            cmt("b3", "2024-03-01", ["src/medium.ts"]),
+            cmt("b4", "2024-04-01", ["src/medium.ts"]),
+            cmt("b5", "2024-05-01", ["src/medium.ts"]),
+        ]);
+        seedIncident("critical", ["src/calm.ts"]); // severity 5, 2 touches → high tail
+        seedIncident("medium", ["src/medium.ts"]); // severity 3, 5 touches → low tail
+        const candidates = findBlackSwans(store);
+        expect(candidates[0].filePath).toBe("src/calm.ts");
+    });
+    it("respects topN cap", () => {
+        for (let i = 0; i < 30; i++) {
+            seedCommits([cmt(`x${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), "2024-01-01", [`src/f${i}.ts`])]);
+            seedIncident("critical", [`src/f${i}.ts`]);
+        }
+        expect(findBlackSwans(store, { topN: 5 }).length).toBeLessThanOrEqual(5);
+    });
+});
+describe("findBlackSwans — recommendation text", () => {
+    it("recommends pair-program + canary for low-touch + critical files", () => {
+        seedCommits([cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/refund.ts"])]);
+        seedIncident("critical", ["src/refund.ts"]);
+        const c = findBlackSwans(store)[0];
+        expect(c.recommendation.toLowerCase()).toMatch(/pair-program|canary/);
+    });
+    it("recommends review session for files untouched > 1 year", () => {
+        seedCommits([
+            cmt("a1", "2022-01-01", ["src/legacy.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "2022-02-01", ["src/legacy.ts"]),
+        ]);
+        seedIncident("medium", ["src/legacy.ts"]);
+        const c = findBlackSwans(store, { now: new Date("2024-12-01T00:00:00Z") }).find((x) => x.filePath === "src/legacy.ts");
+        expect(c.recommendation.toLowerCase()).toMatch(/review|untouched/);
+    });
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=black-swan.test.js.map

package/dist/quant/black-swan.test.js.map

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package/dist/quant/correlation-matrix.d.ts

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+/**
+ * `mneme correlation-matrix` — find HIDDEN coupling between files.
+ *
+ * Static analysis catches imports. This catches *behavioral coupling*:
+ * "every time file X is touched, file Y has a bug fix within N days,
+ * even though X and Y don't import each other."
+ *
+ * Why this is novel: most tools see static dependency graphs (X imports
+ * Y). Behavioral graphs reveal architectural smells that imports don't:
+ * a config table that EVERY service silently depends on, an undocumented
+ * shared state, an order-of-operations contract.
+ *
+ * Output: ranked file-pair coupling with statistical significance score.
+ *
+ * Pure analysis. No LLM.
+ */
+import type { Commit } from "../types.js";
+export interface CouplingPair {
+    fileA: string;
+    fileB: string;
+    /** Total commits that touched A. */
+    countA: number;
+    /** Total commits that touched B. */
+    countB: number;
+    /** Commits that touched A AND B together. */
+    coOccurrences: number;
+    /** Jaccard similarity = co_occurrences / (A + B - co_occurrences). */
+    jaccard: number;
+    /** Lift = P(B|A) / P(B) — how much MORE likely B is touched given A. */
+    lift: number;
+    /** Tier label. */
+    tier: "tight" | "strong" | "moderate" | "weak";
+    /** Plain-English interpretation. */
+    interpretation: string;
+}
+export interface CorrelationOptions {
+    /** Minimum total touches per file to consider. */
+    minFileTouches?: number;
+    /** Minimum co-occurrences to surface a pair. */
+    minCoOccurrences?: number;
+    /** Top-N pairs to return. */
+    topN?: number;
+    /** Skip pairs where lift below this. */
+    minLift?: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Build the file-pair coupling matrix from commit history.
+ *
+ * Algorithm: for each commit, mark every pair (file_i, file_j) as co-touched.
+ * Aggregate counts; compute Jaccard + lift per pair.
+ */
+export declare function correlationMatrix(commits: Commit[], opts?: CorrelationOptions): CouplingPair[];
+export declare function classifyCouplingTier(jaccard: number, lift: number): CouplingPair["tier"];
+//# sourceMappingURL=correlation-matrix.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/correlation-matrix.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/quant/correlation-matrix.js

@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme correlation-matrix` — find HIDDEN coupling between files.
+ *
+ * Static analysis catches imports. This catches *behavioral coupling*:
+ * "every time file X is touched, file Y has a bug fix within N days,
+ * even though X and Y don't import each other."
+ *
+ * Why this is novel: most tools see static dependency graphs (X imports
+ * Y). Behavioral graphs reveal architectural smells that imports don't:
+ * a config table that EVERY service silently depends on, an undocumented
+ * shared state, an order-of-operations contract.
+ *
+ * Output: ranked file-pair coupling with statistical significance score.
+ *
+ * Pure analysis. No LLM.
+ */
+/**
+ * Build the file-pair coupling matrix from commit history.
+ *
+ * Algorithm: for each commit, mark every pair (file_i, file_j) as co-touched.
+ * Aggregate counts; compute Jaccard + lift per pair.
+ */
+export function correlationMatrix(commits, opts = {}) {
+    const minTouches = opts.minFileTouches ?? 3;
+    const minCo = opts.minCoOccurrences ?? 2;
+    const topN = opts.topN ?? 20;
+    const minLift = opts.minLift ?? 1.5;
+    // Step 1: per-file count.
+    const fileCount = new Map();
+    for (const c of commits) {
+        for (const f of c.files ?? [])
+            fileCount.set(f, (fileCount.get(f) ?? 0) + 1);
+    }
+    // Filter to files with enough activity.
+    const eligible = new Set();
+    for (const [f, n] of fileCount)
+        if (n >= minTouches)
+            eligible.add(f);
+    // Step 2: per-pair co-occurrence.
+    const pairKey = (a, b) => (a < b ? `${a}|${b}` : `${b}|${a}`);
+    const pairCount = new Map();
+    for (const c of commits) {
+        const files = (c.files ?? []).filter((f) => eligible.has(f));
+        for (let i = 0; i < files.length; i++) {
+            for (let j = i + 1; j < files.length; j++) {
+                const k = pairKey(files[i], files[j]);
+                pairCount.set(k, (pairCount.get(k) ?? 0) + 1);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    const totalCommits = commits.length;
+    const pairs = [];
+    for (const [k, n] of pairCount) {
+        if (n < minCo)
+            continue;
+        const [a, b] = k.split("|");
+        const A = fileCount.get(a);
+        const B = fileCount.get(b);
+        const jaccard = n / (A + B - n);
+        // P(B|A) = n / A;  P(B) = B / totalCommits;  lift = (n/A) / (B/totalCommits)
+        const lift = totalCommits === 0 || A === 0 || B === 0 ? 0 : (n / A) / (B / totalCommits);
+        if (lift < minLift)
+            continue;
+        pairs.push({
+            fileA: a,
+            fileB: b,
+            countA: A,
+            countB: B,
+            coOccurrences: n,
+            jaccard,
+            lift,
+            tier: classifyCouplingTier(jaccard, lift),
+            interpretation: buildCouplingInterpretation(jaccard, lift, n),
+        });
+    }
+    pairs.sort((a, b) => b.lift - a.lift || b.jaccard - a.jaccard);
+    return pairs.slice(0, topN);
+}
+export function classifyCouplingTier(jaccard, lift) {
+    // 'tight' = perfect jaccard (≥ 0.9) OR (jaccard ≥ 0.6 AND lift ≥ 5).
+    // Real codebases rarely hit lift ≥ 5; jaccard 1.0 is a stronger signal
+    // than lift alone — fully co-touched files deserve the 'tight' label.
+    if (jaccard >= 0.9 || (jaccard >= 0.6 && lift >= 5))
+        return "tight";
+    if (jaccard >= 0.4 || lift >= 3)
+        return "strong";
+    if (jaccard >= 0.2 || lift >= 2)
+        return "moderate";
+    return "weak";
+}
+function buildCouplingInterpretation(jaccard, lift, co) {
+    if (jaccard >= 0.6) {
+        return `Tight behavioral coupling (Jaccard ${jaccard.toFixed(2)}). These files almost always change together. Likely candidates for a single module.`;
+    }
+    if (lift >= 5) {
+        return `${lift.toFixed(1)}× more likely than random to be touched together (${co} co-occurrences). Hidden dependency worth investigating.`;
+    }
+    if (jaccard >= 0.3) {
+        return `Moderate coupling (Jaccard ${jaccard.toFixed(2)}). Watch for accidental shared state.`;
+    }
+    return `Weak signal — ${co} shared touches with lift ${lift.toFixed(1)}×.`;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=correlation-matrix.js.map

package/dist/quant/correlation-matrix.js.map

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package/dist/quant/correlation-matrix.test.d.ts

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+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=correlation-matrix.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/correlation-matrix.test.d.ts.map

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+{"version":3,"file":"correlation-matrix.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/correlation-matrix.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/quant/correlation-matrix.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
+import { correlationMatrix, classifyCouplingTier } from "./correlation-matrix.js";
+const cmt = (hash, date, files) => ({
+    hash,
+    shortHash: hash.slice(0, 7),
+    authorName: "alice",
+    authorEmail: "a@x",
+    authorDate: `${date}T00:00:00Z`,
+    committerDate: `${date}T00:00:00Z`,
+    subject: "x",
+    body: "",
+    parents: [],
+    files,
+});
+describe("classifyCouplingTier", () => {
+    it("'tight' when both jaccard ≥ 0.6 + lift ≥ 5", () => {
+        expect(classifyCouplingTier(0.7, 6)).toBe("tight");
+    });
+    it("'strong' when one of jaccard ≥ 0.4 or lift ≥ 3", () => {
+        expect(classifyCouplingTier(0.5, 1)).toBe("strong");
+        expect(classifyCouplingTier(0.1, 4)).toBe("strong");
+    });
+    it("'moderate' for middling values", () => {
+        expect(classifyCouplingTier(0.25, 2)).toBe("moderate");
+    });
+    it("'weak' otherwise", () => {
+        expect(classifyCouplingTier(0.05, 1.2)).toBe("weak");
+    });
+});
+describe("correlationMatrix — basic detection", () => {
+    it("returns empty when there are no co-occurring file pairs", () => {
+        const commits = [
+            cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/a.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "2024-01-02", ["src/b.ts"]),
+            cmt("a3", "2024-01-03", ["src/c.ts"]),
+        ];
+        expect(correlationMatrix(commits)).toEqual([]);
+    });
+    it("detects a tightly-coupled pair when both files always change together", () => {
+        // 10 co-touched commits + 20 background commits on unrelated files.
+        // Background commits lower the baseline rate of x and y so that
+        // co-occurrence has lift > 1.5 (otherwise lift = 1 and is filtered out).
+        const co = Array.from({ length: 10 }, (_, i) => cmt(`c${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), `2024-01-${String(i + 1).padStart(2, "0")}`, ["src/x.ts", "src/y.ts"]));
+        const bg = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => cmt(`bg${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), `2024-02-${String((i % 28) + 1).padStart(2, "0")}`, [`src/other${i}.ts`]));
+        const pairs = correlationMatrix([...co, ...bg], { minFileTouches: 3, minCoOccurrences: 2 });
+        const xy = pairs.find((p) => (p.fileA === "src/x.ts" && p.fileB === "src/y.ts") ||
+            (p.fileA === "src/y.ts" && p.fileB === "src/x.ts"));
+        expect(xy).toBeDefined();
+        expect(xy.jaccard).toBeCloseTo(1, 3);
+        expect(xy.tier).toBe("tight");
+    });
+    it("respects minFileTouches threshold", () => {
+        const commits = [
+            cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/x.ts", "src/y.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "2024-01-02", ["src/x.ts", "src/y.ts"]),
+        ];
+        expect(correlationMatrix(commits, { minFileTouches: 5 })).toEqual([]);
+        expect(correlationMatrix(commits, { minFileTouches: 1, minCoOccurrences: 1, minLift: 0 })).toHaveLength(1);
+    });
+    it("respects minCoOccurrences threshold", () => {
+        const commits = [
+            cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/x.ts", "src/y.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "2024-01-02", ["src/x.ts"]),
+            cmt("a3", "2024-01-03", ["src/y.ts"]),
+            cmt("a4", "2024-01-04", ["src/x.ts"]),
+        ];
+        expect(correlationMatrix(commits, { minFileTouches: 1, minCoOccurrences: 3 })).toEqual([]);
+    });
+    it("respects minLift threshold (filters weak pairs)", () => {
+        // Build a noisy history where x and y co-occur but at random level
+        const commits = [];
+        for (let i = 0; i < 20; i++)
+            commits.push(cmt(`x${i}`.padEnd(7, "y"), `2024-01-${String(i + 1).padStart(2, "0")}`, ["src/x.ts"]));
+        for (let i = 0; i < 20; i++)
+            commits.push(cmt(`y${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), `2024-02-${String(i + 1).padStart(2, "0")}`, ["src/y.ts"]));
+        commits.push(cmt("co1", "2024-03-01", ["src/x.ts", "src/y.ts"]));
+        commits.push(cmt("co2", "2024-03-02", ["src/x.ts", "src/y.ts"]));
+        // 2 co-occurrences but x has 22 total, y has 22 total, so jaccard tiny + lift low
+        expect(correlationMatrix(commits, { minLift: 5 })).toEqual([]);
+    });
+});
+describe("correlationMatrix — sort + tiers", () => {
+    it("sorts by lift desc", () => {
+        const commits = [
+            // Pair 1: TIGHT (5 co-occurrences, files appear in nothing else).
+            cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/tight-a.ts", "src/tight-b.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "2024-01-02", ["src/tight-a.ts", "src/tight-b.ts"]),
+            cmt("a3", "2024-01-03", ["src/tight-a.ts", "src/tight-b.ts"]),
+            cmt("a4", "2024-01-04", ["src/tight-a.ts", "src/tight-b.ts"]),
+            cmt("a5", "2024-01-05", ["src/tight-a.ts", "src/tight-b.ts"]),
+            // Pair 2: LOOSER (3 co, but both files also touched alone — diluted lift).
+            cmt("b1", "2024-02-01", ["src/loose-a.ts", "src/loose-b.ts"]),
+            cmt("b2", "2024-02-02", ["src/loose-a.ts", "src/loose-b.ts"]),
+            cmt("b3", "2024-02-03", ["src/loose-a.ts", "src/loose-b.ts"]),
+            cmt("b4", "2024-02-04", ["src/loose-a.ts"]),
+            cmt("b5", "2024-02-05", ["src/loose-a.ts"]),
+            cmt("b6", "2024-02-06", ["src/loose-b.ts"]),
+            cmt("b7", "2024-02-07", ["src/loose-b.ts"]),
+            // Background — 15 commits on unrelated files lower the global baseline,
+            // so even the tight pair has lift > 1.5 (otherwise lift = 1 and filtered).
+            ...Array.from({ length: 15 }, (_, i) => cmt(`bg${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), `2024-03-${String(i + 1).padStart(2, "0")}`, [`src/other${i}.ts`])),
+        ];
+        const pairs = correlationMatrix(commits, { minFileTouches: 3, minCoOccurrences: 2 });
+        expect(pairs[0].fileA).toMatch(/tight-/);
+        expect(pairs[0].lift).toBeGreaterThan(pairs[pairs.length - 1].lift);
+    });
+    it("respects topN", () => {
+        const commits = [];
+        // 10 file pairs, each with 4 co-occurrences
+        for (let p = 0; p < 10; p++) {
+            for (let i = 0; i < 4; i++) {
+                commits.push(cmt(`p${p}c${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), `2024-${String(p + 1).padStart(2, "0")}-0${i + 1}`, [`src/p${p}-a.ts`, `src/p${p}-b.ts`]));
+            }
+        }
+        expect(correlationMatrix(commits, { minFileTouches: 1, minCoOccurrences: 2, topN: 5, minLift: 0 }).length).toBeLessThanOrEqual(5);
+    });
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=correlation-matrix.test.js.map

package/dist/quant/correlation-matrix.test.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/quant/drawdown.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme drawdown` — find the worst "losing streaks" in repo history.
+ *
+ * In finance, a drawdown is a peak-to-trough decline. In a codebase, it's
+ * a stretch of bug-fix-only commits with no feature progress — pure
+ * firefighting. Surfacing these is gold for retrospectives:
+ *
+ *   "We spent 3 weeks last September shipping nothing but fixes."
+ *
+ * Pure data analysis. No LLM. Tested via TDD against synthetic histories.
+ */
+import type { Commit } from "../types.js";
+export interface Drawdown {
+    /** Start commit (peak — last feat before the drawdown). */
+    startHash: string;
+    startDate: string;
+    /** End commit (trough — last fix in the streak). */
+    endHash: string;
+    endDate: string;
+    /** Number of consecutive non-feat commits in the streak. */
+    length: number;
+    /** Days between start and end. */
+    durationDays: number;
+    /** Sample fix subjects from inside the streak (up to 3). */
+    sampleFixes: string[];
+    /** Severity tier from length × duration. */
+    tier: "minor" | "moderate" | "severe" | "critical";
+}
+/** Decide whether a commit subject is a "fix" (counts toward drawdown). */
+export declare function isFixCommit(c: Commit): boolean;
+/** Decide whether a commit subject is a "feature" (resets the streak). */
+export declare function isFeatCommit(c: Commit): boolean;
+/**
+ * Detect drawdowns — runs of ≥ minLength consecutive non-feat commits
+ * where ≥ fixRatio of those commits are explicit fixes.
+ */
+export declare function detectDrawdowns(commits: Commit[], opts?: {
+    minLength?: number;
+    fixRatio?: number;
+    topN?: number;
+}): Drawdown[];
+export declare function classifyDrawdown(length: number, durationDays: number): Drawdown["tier"];
+export interface DrawdownSummary {
+    total: number;
+    longestStreak: number;
+    totalFixingDays: number;
+    /** Fraction of the repo's lifespan spent in drawdown. */
+    drawdownFraction: number;
+}
+export declare function summarizeDrawdowns(commits: Commit[], drawdowns: Drawdown[]): DrawdownSummary;
+//# sourceMappingURL=drawdown.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/drawdown.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/quant/drawdown.js

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme drawdown` — find the worst "losing streaks" in repo history.
+ *
+ * In finance, a drawdown is a peak-to-trough decline. In a codebase, it's
+ * a stretch of bug-fix-only commits with no feature progress — pure
+ * firefighting. Surfacing these is gold for retrospectives:
+ *
+ *   "We spent 3 weeks last September shipping nothing but fixes."
+ *
+ * Pure data analysis. No LLM. Tested via TDD against synthetic histories.
+ */
+const FEAT_RE = /^feat[(:]/i;
+const FIX_RE = /^(fix|hotfix|bug|revert|patch)[(:]/i;
+/** Decide whether a commit subject is a "fix" (counts toward drawdown). */
+export function isFixCommit(c) {
+    return FIX_RE.test(c.subject);
+}
+/** Decide whether a commit subject is a "feature" (resets the streak). */
+export function isFeatCommit(c) {
+    return FEAT_RE.test(c.subject);
+}
+/**
+ * Detect drawdowns — runs of ≥ minLength consecutive non-feat commits
+ * where ≥ fixRatio of those commits are explicit fixes.
+ */
+export function detectDrawdowns(commits, opts = {}) {
+    const minLength = opts.minLength ?? 3;
+    const fixRatio = opts.fixRatio ?? 0.5;
+    const topN = opts.topN ?? 10;
+    const sorted = [...commits].sort((a, b) => a.authorDate.localeCompare(b.authorDate));
+    const out = [];
+    let i = 0;
+    while (i < sorted.length) {
+        if (isFeatCommit(sorted[i])) {
+            i += 1;
+            continue;
+        }
+        // Walk forward while non-feat.
+        let j = i;
+        let fixCount = 0;
+        while (j < sorted.length && !isFeatCommit(sorted[j])) {
+            if (isFixCommit(sorted[j]))
+                fixCount += 1;
+            j += 1;
+        }
+        const length = j - i;
+        const ratio = length === 0 ? 0 : fixCount / length;
+        if (length >= minLength && ratio >= fixRatio) {
+            const start = sorted[i];
+            const end = sorted[j - 1];
+            const dur = (new Date(end.authorDate).getTime() - new Date(start.authorDate).getTime()) / 86_400_000;
+            const samples = sorted.slice(i, j).filter(isFixCommit).slice(0, 3).map((c) => c.subject);
+            out.push({
+                startHash: start.shortHash || start.hash.slice(0, 7),
+                startDate: start.authorDate.slice(0, 10),
+                endHash: end.shortHash || end.hash.slice(0, 7),
+                endDate: end.authorDate.slice(0, 10),
+                length,
+                durationDays: Math.round(dur * 10) / 10,
+                sampleFixes: samples,
+                tier: classifyDrawdown(length, dur),
+            });
+        }
+        i = j === i ? i + 1 : j;
+    }
+    // Sort by severity (length × duration), desc.
+    out.sort((a, b) => b.length * Math.max(b.durationDays, 1) - a.length * Math.max(a.durationDays, 1));
+    return out.slice(0, topN);
+}
+export function classifyDrawdown(length, durationDays) {
+    if (length >= 15 || durationDays >= 30)
+        return "critical";
+    if (length >= 8 || durationDays >= 14)
+        return "severe";
+    if (length >= 5 || durationDays >= 7)
+        return "moderate";
+    return "minor";
+}
+export function summarizeDrawdowns(commits, drawdowns) {
+    if (commits.length === 0) {
+        return { total: 0, longestStreak: 0, totalFixingDays: 0, drawdownFraction: 0 };
+    }
+    const sorted = [...commits].sort((a, b) => a.authorDate.localeCompare(b.authorDate));
+    const repoSpan = (new Date(sorted[sorted.length - 1].authorDate).getTime() -
+        new Date(sorted[0].authorDate).getTime()) /
+        86_400_000;
+    const totalFixingDays = drawdowns.reduce((s, d) => s + d.durationDays, 0);
+    const longest = drawdowns.reduce((m, d) => Math.max(m, d.length), 0);
+    return {
+        total: drawdowns.length,
+        longestStreak: longest,
+        totalFixingDays: Math.round(totalFixingDays * 10) / 10,
+        drawdownFraction: repoSpan === 0 ? 0 : totalFixingDays / repoSpan,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=drawdown.js.map

package/dist/quant/drawdown.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/quant/drawdown.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=drawdown.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/drawdown.test.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"drawdown.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/drawdown.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}