@mneme-ai/core 0.9.0 → 0.10.0

package/dist/quant/alpha.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
+import { kellyAllocate, classifyTier, estimateEdge, estimateVariance } from "./alpha.js";
+const item = (overrides) => ({
+    id: "x",
+    name: "X",
+    edge: 0.1,
+    variance: 0.05,
+    effortDays: 5,
+    ...overrides,
+});
+describe("kellyAllocate — basic invariants", () => {
+    it("never allocates negative days", () => {
+        const r = kellyAllocate([
+            item({ id: "good", edge: 0.2, variance: 0.05 }),
+            item({ id: "bad", edge: -0.1, variance: 0.05 }),
+        ], { budgetDays: 20 });
+        for (const a of r.items)
+            expect(a.allocatedDays).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+        expect(r.items.find((a) => a.id === "bad").allocatedDays).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.items.find((a) => a.id === "bad").tier).toBe("skip");
+    });
+    it("raw Kelly is edge / variance", () => {
+        const r = kellyAllocate([item({ id: "x", edge: 0.2, variance: 0.05 })], { budgetDays: 100 });
+        expect(r.items[0].rawKelly).toBeCloseTo(4, 6);
+    });
+    it("applies fractional Kelly multiplier (default 0.25)", () => {
+        const r = kellyAllocate([item({ id: "x", edge: 0.2, variance: 0.1 })], { budgetDays: 100 });
+        // raw kelly = 2.0, × 0.25 = 0.5 (clamped to ceiling)
+        expect(r.items[0].kellyFraction).toBeLessThanOrEqual(0.5);
+    });
+    it("clamps any single item to ≤ 50% of budget", () => {
+        const r = kellyAllocate([item({ edge: 1.0, variance: 0.001 })], { budgetDays: 100, multiplier: 1 });
+        expect(r.items[0].kellyFraction).toBeLessThanOrEqual(0.5);
+    });
+    it("totalAllocated never exceeds budgetDays", () => {
+        const items = [];
+        for (let i = 0; i < 10; i++) {
+            items.push(item({ id: `i${i}`, edge: 0.3, variance: 0.05 }));
+        }
+        const r = kellyAllocate(items, { budgetDays: 25 });
+        expect(r.totalAllocated).toBeLessThanOrEqual(25);
+    });
+    it("reserves at least reserveFraction of the budget by default", () => {
+        const items = Array.from({ length: 5 }, (_, i) => item({ id: `i${i}`, edge: 0.5, variance: 0.05 }));
+        const r = kellyAllocate(items, { budgetDays: 25, reserveFraction: 0.2 });
+        expect(r.totalAllocated).toBeLessThanOrEqual(25 * 0.8 + 0.5); // float wiggle
+        expect(r.reserveDays).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(25 * 0.2 - 0.5);
+    });
+});
+describe("kellyAllocate — sorting + tiers", () => {
+    it("sorts by allocated days desc", () => {
+        const r = kellyAllocate([
+            item({ id: "small", edge: 0.05, variance: 0.05 }),
+            item({ id: "big", edge: 0.5, variance: 0.05 }),
+            item({ id: "mid", edge: 0.2, variance: 0.05 }),
+        ], { budgetDays: 25 });
+        expect(r.items[0].id).toBe("big");
+        expect(r.items[r.items.length - 1].id).toBe("small");
+    });
+    it("classifies tiers — outsized > core > small > skip", () => {
+        expect(classifyTier(0.3, 0.2)).toBe("outsized");
+        expect(classifyTier(0.15, 0.2)).toBe("core");
+        expect(classifyTier(0.05, 0.2)).toBe("small");
+        expect(classifyTier(0.0, 0.2)).toBe("skip");
+        expect(classifyTier(0.5, -0.1)).toBe("skip"); // negative edge always skip
+    });
+});
+describe("kellyAllocate — edge cases", () => {
+    it("handles empty input", () => {
+        const r = kellyAllocate([], { budgetDays: 25 });
+        expect(r.items).toEqual([]);
+        expect(r.totalAllocated).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.reserveDays).toBe(25);
+    });
+    it("handles zero variance (avoids division by zero)", () => {
+        const r = kellyAllocate([item({ id: "x", edge: 0.1, variance: 0 })], { budgetDays: 100 });
+        expect(Number.isFinite(r.items[0].allocatedDays)).toBe(true);
+    });
+    it("zero-budget case allocates nothing", () => {
+        const r = kellyAllocate([item({ edge: 0.5, variance: 0.05 })], { budgetDays: 0 });
+        expect(r.totalAllocated).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.items[0].allocatedDays).toBe(0);
+    });
+    it("more permissive multiplier (0.5) allocates more aggressively than default (0.25)", () => {
+        // Use a low raw-Kelly so neither multiplier hits the per-item 0.5 ceiling.
+        const items = [item({ edge: 0.05, variance: 0.1 })];
+        const conservative = kellyAllocate(items, { budgetDays: 100, multiplier: 0.25 });
+        const aggressive = kellyAllocate(items, { budgetDays: 100, multiplier: 0.5 });
+        expect(aggressive.totalAllocated).toBeGreaterThan(conservative.totalAllocated);
+    });
+});
+describe("estimateEdge — derives expected return from historical signals", () => {
+    it("positive edge when post-refactor improves regret + churn", () => {
+        const e = estimateEdge({
+            pastRegretRate: 0.3,
+            pastChurnPerDay: 5,
+            postRefactorRegretRate: 0.1,
+            postRefactorChurnPerDay: 3,
+        });
+        expect(e).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    });
+    it("negative edge when post-refactor is worse", () => {
+        const e = estimateEdge({
+            pastRegretRate: 0.1,
+            pastChurnPerDay: 5,
+            postRefactorRegretRate: 0.3,
+            postRefactorChurnPerDay: 8,
+        });
+        expect(e).toBeLessThan(0);
+    });
+    it("regret improvement weighted higher than churn improvement", () => {
+        const regretOnly = estimateEdge({
+            pastRegretRate: 0.5,
+            pastChurnPerDay: 5,
+            postRefactorRegretRate: 0,
+            postRefactorChurnPerDay: 5,
+        });
+        const churnOnly = estimateEdge({
+            pastRegretRate: 0.3,
+            pastChurnPerDay: 10,
+            postRefactorRegretRate: 0.3,
+            postRefactorChurnPerDay: 5,
+        });
+        expect(regretOnly).toBeGreaterThan(churnOnly);
+    });
+});
+describe("estimateVariance — sample variance of payoffs", () => {
+    it("zero (floor) for unknown / single sample", () => {
+        expect(estimateVariance([])).toBe(0.1);
+        expect(estimateVariance([0.2])).toBe(0.1);
+    });
+    it("computes variance correctly for multiple payoffs", () => {
+        const v = estimateVariance([0.1, 0.2, 0.3]);
+        // mean = 0.2, deviations: -0.1, 0, 0.1; variance = (0.01 + 0 + 0.01) / 3
+        expect(v).toBeCloseTo(0.00667, 4);
+    });
+    it("non-negative for any input", () => {
+        const inputs = [
+            [0, 0, 0],
+            [-0.5, 0.5],
+            [1, 1, 1, 1],
+        ];
+        for (const arr of inputs)
+            expect(estimateVariance(arr)).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+    });
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=alpha.test.js.map

package/dist/quant/alpha.test.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/quant/backtest.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme backtest` — validate insight commands retroactively.
+ *
+ * The killer property: every prediction Mneme makes ("this is risky") can
+ * be replayed against actual history to compute precision, recall, F1, and
+ * lift over a random baseline. This turns "we have an AI tool" into
+ * "we have an AI tool with measured edge against the past".
+ *
+ * Backtest works for any binary predictor: given a set of (commit,
+ * prediction) pairs and a window in which to count "trouble" outcomes,
+ * compute the standard classification metrics.
+ *
+ * Pure data analysis — no LLM. The actual replay (re-running a command at
+ * a frozen point in history) lives in the CLI command, but the metric
+ * math is here and unit-testable.
+ */
+export interface BacktestSample {
+    /** The thing being predicted on — a commit, file, etc. */
+    id: string;
+    /** Did the predictor say "trouble incoming"? */
+    predicted: boolean;
+    /** Did trouble actually happen within the validation window? */
+    actual: boolean;
+}
+export interface BacktestResult {
+    /** Total samples evaluated. */
+    n: number;
+    /** Confusion matrix counts. */
+    truePositives: number;
+    falsePositives: number;
+    trueNegatives: number;
+    falseNegatives: number;
+    /** Standard metrics. */
+    precision: number;
+    recall: number;
+    f1: number;
+    /** Base rate of positive outcomes (how often trouble happens randomly). */
+    baseRate: number;
+    /** Lift over base rate — precision / baseRate. */
+    lift: number;
+    /** Verdict label for the report. */
+    verdict: "no-edge" | "weak" | "real-edge" | "strong-edge";
+    /** Plain-English conclusion. */
+    conclusion: string;
+}
+/**
+ * Compute classification metrics + verdict from a list of (predicted,
+ * actual) samples. Pure math — no I/O, deterministic.
+ */
+export declare function backtest(samples: BacktestSample[]): BacktestResult;
+export declare function classifyVerdict(lift: number, precision: number, recall: number, n: number): BacktestResult["verdict"];
+/**
+ * Aggregate a backtest result into a one-line markdown badge for the
+ * README / docs. Format: "F1 = 0.67 · 2.4× lift · n=14".
+ */
+export declare function badge(result: BacktestResult): string;
+//# sourceMappingURL=backtest.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/backtest.d.ts.map

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package/dist/quant/backtest.js

@@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme backtest` — validate insight commands retroactively.
+ *
+ * The killer property: every prediction Mneme makes ("this is risky") can
+ * be replayed against actual history to compute precision, recall, F1, and
+ * lift over a random baseline. This turns "we have an AI tool" into
+ * "we have an AI tool with measured edge against the past".
+ *
+ * Backtest works for any binary predictor: given a set of (commit,
+ * prediction) pairs and a window in which to count "trouble" outcomes,
+ * compute the standard classification metrics.
+ *
+ * Pure data analysis — no LLM. The actual replay (re-running a command at
+ * a frozen point in history) lives in the CLI command, but the metric
+ * math is here and unit-testable.
+ */
+/**
+ * Compute classification metrics + verdict from a list of (predicted,
+ * actual) samples. Pure math — no I/O, deterministic.
+ */
+export function backtest(samples) {
+    const n = samples.length;
+    let tp = 0;
+    let fp = 0;
+    let tn = 0;
+    let fn = 0;
+    for (const s of samples) {
+        if (s.predicted && s.actual)
+            tp += 1;
+        else if (s.predicted && !s.actual)
+            fp += 1;
+        else if (!s.predicted && !s.actual)
+            tn += 1;
+        else
+            fn += 1;
+    }
+    const precision = tp + fp === 0 ? 0 : tp / (tp + fp);
+    const recall = tp + fn === 0 ? 0 : tp / (tp + fn);
+    const f1 = precision + recall === 0 ? 0 : (2 * precision * recall) / (precision + recall);
+    const baseRate = n === 0 ? 0 : (tp + fn) / n;
+    const lift = baseRate === 0 ? 0 : precision / baseRate;
+    const verdict = classifyVerdict(lift, precision, recall, n);
+    return {
+        n,
+        truePositives: tp,
+        falsePositives: fp,
+        trueNegatives: tn,
+        falseNegatives: fn,
+        precision,
+        recall,
+        f1,
+        baseRate,
+        lift,
+        verdict,
+        conclusion: buildConclusion(verdict, n, precision, recall, lift),
+    };
+}
+export function classifyVerdict(lift, precision, recall, n) {
+    if (n < 5)
+        return "no-edge"; // sample too small
+    if (lift >= 2.5 && precision >= 0.6 && recall >= 0.5)
+        return "strong-edge";
+    if (lift >= 1.5 && precision >= 0.4)
+        return "real-edge";
+    if (lift >= 1.1)
+        return "weak";
+    return "no-edge";
+}
+function buildConclusion(verdict, n, precision, recall, lift) {
+    switch (verdict) {
+        case "no-edge":
+            if (n < 5)
+                return `Sample size too small (n=${n}) to draw conclusions.`;
+            return `No detectable edge over random — precision ${(precision * 100).toFixed(0)}%, lift ${lift.toFixed(2)}×.`;
+        case "weak":
+            return `Weak edge — beats random by ${((lift - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% but precision is still ${(precision * 100).toFixed(0)}%. Use as a soft prior.`;
+        case "real-edge":
+            return `Real predictive edge — precision ${(precision * 100).toFixed(0)}%, ${lift.toFixed(1)}× over random.`;
+        case "strong-edge":
+            return `Strong edge — precision ${(precision * 100).toFixed(0)}%, recall ${(recall * 100).toFixed(0)}%, ${lift.toFixed(1)}× over random. Trust this predictor.`;
+    }
+}
+/**
+ * Aggregate a backtest result into a one-line markdown badge for the
+ * README / docs. Format: "F1 = 0.67 · 2.4× lift · n=14".
+ */
+export function badge(result) {
+    return `F1 = ${result.f1.toFixed(2)} · ${result.lift.toFixed(1)}× lift · n=${result.n}`;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=backtest.js.map

package/dist/quant/backtest.js.map

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package/dist/quant/backtest.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=backtest.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/backtest.test.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"backtest.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/backtest.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/quant/backtest.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
+import { backtest, classifyVerdict, badge } from "./backtest.js";
+describe("backtest — confusion matrix counts", () => {
+    it("perfect predictor — all TP, no FP/FN", () => {
+        const r = backtest([
+            { id: "a", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "b", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "c", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "d", predicted: false, actual: false },
+        ]);
+        expect(r.truePositives).toBe(2);
+        expect(r.falsePositives).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.trueNegatives).toBe(2);
+        expect(r.falseNegatives).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.precision).toBe(1);
+        expect(r.recall).toBe(1);
+        expect(r.f1).toBe(1);
+    });
+    it("worst predictor — all FP and FN", () => {
+        const r = backtest([
+            { id: "a", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "b", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "c", predicted: false, actual: true },
+            { id: "d", predicted: false, actual: true },
+        ]);
+        expect(r.truePositives).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.precision).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.recall).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.f1).toBe(0);
+    });
+    it("balanced realistic case", () => {
+        // 14 samples, 6 predicted high-risk, 4 of those actually had incidents
+        // 8 predicted clean, 2 actually had incidents
+        // Total positives: 6 (4 + 2)
+        const samples = [
+            { id: "1", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "2", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "3", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "4", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "5", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "6", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "7", predicted: false, actual: true },
+            { id: "8", predicted: false, actual: true },
+            { id: "9", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "10", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "11", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "12", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "13", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "14", predicted: false, actual: false },
+        ];
+        const r = backtest(samples);
+        expect(r.precision).toBeCloseTo(4 / 6, 4);
+        expect(r.recall).toBeCloseTo(4 / 6, 4);
+        expect(r.f1).toBeCloseTo(4 / 6, 4);
+        expect(r.baseRate).toBeCloseTo(6 / 14, 4);
+        expect(r.lift).toBeCloseTo((4 / 6) / (6 / 14), 4);
+    });
+});
+describe("backtest — edge cases", () => {
+    it("empty input returns zeros + no-edge verdict", () => {
+        const r = backtest([]);
+        expect(r.n).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.precision).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.recall).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.f1).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.verdict).toBe("no-edge");
+    });
+    it("no positive predictions → precision = 0 (avoids div by zero)", () => {
+        const r = backtest([
+            { id: "1", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "2", predicted: false, actual: true },
+        ]);
+        expect(r.precision).toBe(0);
+    });
+    it("no actual positives → recall = 0", () => {
+        const r = backtest([
+            { id: "1", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "2", predicted: false, actual: false },
+        ]);
+        expect(r.recall).toBe(0);
+    });
+});
+describe("classifyVerdict — tier from lift × precision × recall", () => {
+    it("strong-edge for high precision + recall + 2.5× lift", () => {
+        expect(classifyVerdict(3, 0.7, 0.6, 20)).toBe("strong-edge");
+    });
+    it("real-edge for moderate metrics", () => {
+        expect(classifyVerdict(1.8, 0.5, 0.4, 20)).toBe("real-edge");
+    });
+    it("weak for lift ≥ 1.1 only", () => {
+        expect(classifyVerdict(1.2, 0.3, 0.3, 20)).toBe("weak");
+    });
+    it("no-edge for too-small samples", () => {
+        expect(classifyVerdict(5, 0.9, 0.9, 4)).toBe("no-edge");
+    });
+    it("no-edge when no lift over random", () => {
+        expect(classifyVerdict(0.9, 0.3, 0.3, 20)).toBe("no-edge");
+    });
+});
+describe("badge — one-line summary string", () => {
+    it("includes F1, lift, and n", () => {
+        const r = backtest([
+            { id: "1", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "2", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "3", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "4", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "5", predicted: false, actual: false },
+        ]);
+        const b = badge(r);
+        expect(b).toMatch(/F1 = \d/);
+        expect(b).toMatch(/× lift/);
+        expect(b).toMatch(/n=5/);
+    });
+});
+describe("backtest — conclusion text adapts to verdict", () => {
+    it("no-edge mentions sample size for small n", () => {
+        const r = backtest([{ id: "1", predicted: true, actual: true }]);
+        expect(r.conclusion.toLowerCase()).toContain("sample");
+    });
+    it("strong-edge says 'trust' or 'real predictive'", () => {
+        // build samples with strong edge: lift ≥ 2.5, precision ≥ 0.6, recall ≥ 0.5
+        const samples = [
+            ...Array.from({ length: 8 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `tp${i}`, predicted: true, actual: true })),
+            ...Array.from({ length: 2 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `fp${i}`, predicted: true, actual: false })),
+            ...Array.from({ length: 4 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `fn${i}`, predicted: false, actual: true })),
+            ...Array.from({ length: 36 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `tn${i}`, predicted: false, actual: false })),
+        ];
+        const r = backtest(samples);
+        expect(r.verdict).toBe("strong-edge");
+        expect(r.conclusion.toLowerCase()).toMatch(/trust|strong/);
+    });
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=backtest.test.js.map

package/dist/quant/backtest.test.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/quant/black-swan.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme black-swan` — find rare-but-catastrophic file patterns.
+ *
+ * Inspired by Taleb: real risk lives in the tail. Files touched rarely
+ * but tied to high-severity incidents are far more dangerous than
+ * frequently-touched files with proportional bug counts.
+ *
+ *   tail_risk = log(avg_severity + 1) × (1 / max(touch_frequency, 1))
+ *
+ * Files surface ranked by tail_risk — the silent assassins that look
+ * stable but explode when touched.
+ *
+ * Pure store-backed analysis. No LLM.
+ */
+import type { MnemeStore } from "../store/sqlite.js";
+export interface BlackSwanCandidate {
+    filePath: string;
+    /** Total commits that ever touched this file. */
+    touchCount: number;
+    /** Days since the last touch. */
+    daysSinceTouch: number;
+    /** Number of incidents associated with this file. */
+    incidentCount: number;
+    /** Mean severity (1=low, 5=critical). */
+    avgSeverity: number;
+    /** Tail-risk score — see formula above. */
+    tailRisk: number;
+    /** Tier label for output. */
+    tier: "deceptive-calm" | "elevated" | "watch" | "background";
+    /** A 1-line operational recommendation. */
+    recommendation: string;
+}
+/**
+ * Walk every indexed file, compute touch frequency + linked-incident
+ * severity, and rank by tail risk. Conservative defaults: files with
+ * < incidents are skipped (no tail without trouble).
+ */
+export declare function findBlackSwans(store: MnemeStore, opts?: {
+    topN?: number;
+    minIncidents?: number;
+    maxTouches?: number;
+    now?: Date;
+}): BlackSwanCandidate[];
+export declare function classifyBlackSwanTier(tailRisk: number, touches: number, avgSeverity: number): BlackSwanCandidate["tier"];
+//# sourceMappingURL=black-swan.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/black-swan.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/quant/black-swan.js

@@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme black-swan` — find rare-but-catastrophic file patterns.
+ *
+ * Inspired by Taleb: real risk lives in the tail. Files touched rarely
+ * but tied to high-severity incidents are far more dangerous than
+ * frequently-touched files with proportional bug counts.
+ *
+ *   tail_risk = log(avg_severity + 1) × (1 / max(touch_frequency, 1))
+ *
+ * Files surface ranked by tail_risk — the silent assassins that look
+ * stable but explode when touched.
+ *
+ * Pure store-backed analysis. No LLM.
+ */
+const SEVERITY_RANK = {
+    critical: 5,
+    high: 4,
+    medium: 3,
+    low: 2,
+    info: 1,
+};
+/**
+ * Walk every indexed file, compute touch frequency + linked-incident
+ * severity, and rank by tail risk. Conservative defaults: files with
+ * < incidents are skipped (no tail without trouble).
+ */
+export function findBlackSwans(store, opts = {}) {
+    const topN = opts.topN ?? 10;
+    const minIncidents = opts.minIncidents ?? 1;
+    const maxTouches = opts.maxTouches ?? 30;
+    const now = opts.now ?? new Date();
+    // Pull file → (touch count, last touch).
+    const fileRows = store.db
+        .prepare(`SELECT
+         fc.path                      AS path,
+         COUNT(*)                     AS touches,
+         MAX(c.author_date)           AS last_touch
+       FROM file_changes fc
+       JOIN commits c ON c.hash = fc.commit_hash
+       GROUP BY fc.path
+       HAVING touches <= ?`)
+        .all(maxTouches);
+    // Pull file → incidents (parsed from incidents.affected_files).
+    const incidentRows = store.db
+        .prepare(`SELECT severity, affected_files FROM incidents`)
+        .all();
+    // Build file → { incidentCount, severities[] }
+    const incidentsByFile = new Map();
+    for (const r of incidentRows) {
+        if (!r.affected_files)
+            continue;
+        let files = [];
+        try {
+            const parsed = JSON.parse(r.affected_files);
+            if (Array.isArray(parsed))
+                files = parsed.filter((x) => typeof x === "string");
+        }
+        catch {
+            // Fallback: comma-separated paths
+            files = r.affected_files.split(",").map((s) => s.trim()).filter(Boolean);
+        }
+        const sev = SEVERITY_RANK[r.severity?.toLowerCase()] ?? 3;
+        for (const f of files) {
+            if (!incidentsByFile.has(f))
+                incidentsByFile.set(f, []);
+            incidentsByFile.get(f).push(sev);
+        }
+    }
+    const candidates = [];
+    for (const r of fileRows) {
+        const sevs = incidentsByFile.get(r.path) ?? [];
+        if (sevs.length < minIncidents)
+            continue;
+        const avgSeverity = sevs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / sevs.length;
+        const daysSinceTouch = (now.getTime() - new Date(r.last_touch).getTime()) / 86_400_000;
+        const tailRisk = Math.log(avgSeverity + 1) * (1 / Math.max(r.touches, 1));
+        candidates.push({
+            filePath: r.path,
+            touchCount: r.touches,
+            daysSinceTouch: Math.round(daysSinceTouch),
+            incidentCount: sevs.length,
+            avgSeverity: Math.round(avgSeverity * 10) / 10,
+            tailRisk,
+            tier: classifyBlackSwanTier(tailRisk, r.touches, avgSeverity),
+            recommendation: buildBlackSwanRecommendation(r.touches, avgSeverity, daysSinceTouch),
+        });
+    }
+    candidates.sort((a, b) => b.tailRisk - a.tailRisk);
+    return candidates.slice(0, topN);
+}
+export function classifyBlackSwanTier(tailRisk, touches, avgSeverity) {
+    if (tailRisk >= 0.8 && touches <= 3 && avgSeverity >= 4)
+        return "deceptive-calm";
+    if (tailRisk >= 0.5 && avgSeverity >= 3)
+        return "elevated";
+    if (tailRisk >= 0.2)
+        return "watch";
+    return "background";
+}
+function buildBlackSwanRecommendation(touches, avgSeverity, daysSinceTouch) {
+    if (touches <= 2 && avgSeverity >= 4) {
+        return "Mandatory pair-program + canary deploy. This file LOOKS stable but its track record is catastrophic.";
+    }
+    if (avgSeverity >= 4) {
+        return "Code-freeze without 2 reviewers + load test required. High tail risk on edits.";
+    }
+    if (daysSinceTouch > 365) {
+        return "Untouched for 1+ year. Schedule a review session before the next change.";
+    }
+    return "Monitor closely. Run mneme blast on any commit that touches this file.";
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=black-swan.js.map

package/dist/quant/black-swan.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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