@mneme-ai/core 0.8.4 → 0.10.0

package/dist/quant/greek.js

@@ -0,0 +1,157 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme greek` — sensitivity analysis (Δ Γ Θ ν) for a codebase.
+ *
+ *   Δ DELTA  — sensitivity to the top contributor (% knowledge lost if X quits)
+ *   Γ GAMMA  — acceleration of risk (super-linear scaling of bug rate vs PR rate)
+ *   Θ THETA  — time decay (untouched files lose coverage over time)
+ *   ν VEGA   — sensitivity to dependency volatility (placeholder for now)
+ *
+ * Pure analysis. Delta + Gamma are required and computed from store data.
+ * Theta is best-effort (depends on coverage indexed). Vega returns null
+ * unless dependency manifest data is available — honestly.
+ */
+export function computeDelta(store, opts = {}) {
+    const topN = opts.topN ?? 5;
+    // Pull file-author distribution.
+    const rows = store.db
+        .prepare(`SELECT
+         fc.path                AS path,
+         c.author_name          AS author_name,
+         c.author_email         AS author_email,
+         COUNT(*)               AS touches
+       FROM file_changes fc
+       JOIN commits c ON c.hash = fc.commit_hash
+       GROUP BY fc.path, c.author_name, c.author_email`)
+        .all();
+    // Per-file totals.
+    const fileTotals = new Map();
+    for (const r of rows)
+        fileTotals.set(r.path, (fileTotals.get(r.path) ?? 0) + r.touches);
+    // Per-(file, author) — find top owner per file.
+    const topOwnerPerFile = new Map();
+    for (const r of rows) {
+        const cur = topOwnerPerFile.get(r.path);
+        if (!cur || r.touches > cur.touches) {
+            topOwnerPerFile.set(r.path, { name: r.author_name, email: r.author_email, touches: r.touches });
+        }
+    }
+    const byAuthor = new Map();
+    let totalFiles = 0;
+    for (const [file, top] of topOwnerPerFile) {
+        totalFiles += 1;
+        const total = fileTotals.get(file) ?? 1;
+        if (top.touches / total < 0.75)
+            continue;
+        const key = `${top.name}|${top.email}`;
+        if (!byAuthor.has(key))
+            byAuthor.set(key, { name: top.name, email: top.email, ownedFiles: [] });
+        byAuthor.get(key).ownedFiles.push(file);
+    }
+    const results = [];
+    for (const b of byAuthor.values()) {
+        const knowledgeLossPct = totalFiles === 0 ? 0 : Math.round((b.ownedFiles.length / totalFiles) * 100);
+        results.push({
+            name: b.name,
+            email: b.email,
+            ownedFiles: b.ownedFiles,
+            knowledgeLossPct,
+        });
+    }
+    results.sort((a, b) => b.ownedFiles.length - a.ownedFiles.length);
+    return results.slice(0, topN);
+}
+const FIX_RE = /^(fix|hotfix|bug|revert|patch)[(:]/i;
+export function computeGamma(store) {
+    const commitRows = store.db
+        .prepare(`SELECT subject, author_date FROM commits`)
+        .all();
+    if (commitRows.length === 0) {
+        return { riskAcceleration: 0, weeks: 0, interpretation: "No commits indexed yet." };
+    }
+    // Bucket by ISO week.
+    const buckets = new Map();
+    for (const r of commitRows) {
+        const week = isoWeek(new Date(r.author_date));
+        if (!buckets.has(week))
+            buckets.set(week, { total: 0, fixes: 0 });
+        const b = buckets.get(week);
+        b.total += 1;
+        if (FIX_RE.test(r.subject))
+            b.fixes += 1;
+    }
+    // Linear regression: x = total commits, y = fix commits.
+    const points = [...buckets.values()].filter((b) => b.total > 0);
+    if (points.length < 3) {
+        return {
+            riskAcceleration: 0,
+            weeks: points.length,
+            interpretation: `Only ${points.length} weeks of data — need 3+ for meaningful gamma.`,
+        };
+    }
+    const n = points.length;
+    const sumX = points.reduce((s, p) => s + p.total, 0);
+    const sumY = points.reduce((s, p) => s + p.fixes, 0);
+    const sumXY = points.reduce((s, p) => s + p.total * p.fixes, 0);
+    const sumX2 = points.reduce((s, p) => s + p.total * p.total, 0);
+    const denom = n * sumX2 - sumX * sumX;
+    const slope = denom === 0 ? 0 : (n * sumXY - sumX * sumY) / denom;
+    return {
+        riskAcceleration: Math.round(slope * 1000) / 1000,
+        weeks: n,
+        interpretation: buildGammaInterpretation(slope, n),
+    };
+}
+function buildGammaInterpretation(slope, weeks) {
+    if (slope > 0.3) {
+        return `Super-linear risk: each extra commit per week adds ${(slope * 100).toFixed(0)}% more fixes. Scaling team velocity will likely increase bug rate disproportionately.`;
+    }
+    if (slope > 0.15) {
+        return `Risk scales linearly with velocity (slope ${slope.toFixed(2)}). Sustainable but watch for super-linear inflection.`;
+    }
+    return `Low risk acceleration (slope ${slope.toFixed(2)}). Velocity does not strongly predict bug rate over ${weeks} weeks.`;
+}
+function isoWeek(d) {
+    // ISO week format: YYYY-Www
+    const target = new Date(d.valueOf());
+    const dayNr = (d.getUTCDay() + 6) % 7;
+    target.setUTCDate(target.getUTCDate() - dayNr + 3);
+    const firstThursday = target.valueOf();
+    target.setUTCMonth(0, 1);
+    if (target.getUTCDay() !== 4) {
+        target.setUTCMonth(0, 1 + ((4 - target.getUTCDay() + 7) % 7));
+    }
+    const weekNumber = 1 + Math.ceil((firstThursday - target.valueOf()) / (7 * 86_400_000));
+    return `${d.getUTCFullYear()}-W${String(weekNumber).padStart(2, "0")}`;
+}
+export function computeTheta(store, opts = {}) {
+    const now = opts.now ?? new Date();
+    const rows = store.db
+        .prepare(`SELECT fc.path, MAX(c.author_date) AS last_touch
+       FROM file_changes fc
+       JOIN commits c ON c.hash = fc.commit_hash
+       GROUP BY fc.path`)
+        .all();
+    const STALE_DAYS = 180;
+    const staleAges = [];
+    for (const r of rows) {
+        const days = (now.getTime() - new Date(r.last_touch).getTime()) / 86_400_000;
+        if (days >= STALE_DAYS)
+            staleAges.push(days);
+    }
+    const avg = staleAges.length === 0 ? 0 : Math.round(staleAges.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / staleAges.length);
+    return {
+        staleFiles: staleAges.length,
+        avgStaleDays: avg,
+        interpretation: staleAges.length === 0
+            ? "No stale files — codebase is recently active."
+            : `${staleAges.length} files untouched for ≥ 6 months (avg ${avg} days). Schedule review or remove via mneme tax-loss-harvest.`,
+    };
+}
+export function computeGreeks(store, opts = {}) {
+    return {
+        delta: computeDelta(store),
+        gamma: computeGamma(store),
+        theta: computeTheta(store, opts),
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=greek.js.map

package/dist/quant/greek.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"greek.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/greek.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;GAWG;AAiBH,MAAM,UAAU,YAAY,CAAC,KAAiB,EAAE,OAA0B,EAAE;IAC1E,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;IAE5B,iCAAiC;IACjC,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE;SAClB,OAAO,CACN;;;;;;;uDAOiD,CAClD;SACA,GAAG,EAAyF,CAAC;IAEhG,mBAAmB;IACnB,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,EAAkB,CAAC;IAC7C,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI;QAAE,UAAU,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;IAExF,gDAAgD;IAChD,MAAM,eAAe,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,EAA4D,CAAC;IAC5F,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;QACrB,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;QACxC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC;YACpC,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,YAAY,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QAClG,CAAC;IACH,CAAC;IAID,MAAM,QAAQ,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,EAAkB,CAAC;IAC3C,IAAI,UAAU,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IACnB,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,eAAe,EAAE,CAAC;QAC1C,UAAU,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;QAChB,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,UAAU,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;QACxC,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI;YAAE,SAAS;QACzC,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;QACvC,IAAI,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;YAAE,QAAQ,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QAChG,QAAQ,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,CAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;IAC3C,CAAC;IAED,MAAM,OAAO,GAAkB,EAAE,CAAC;IAClC,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,QAAQ,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC;QAClC,MAAM,gBAAgB,GAAG,UAAU,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,UAAU,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;QACrG,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;YACX,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI;YACZ,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK;YACd,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU;YACxB,gBAAgB;SACjB,CAAC,CAAC;IACL,CAAC;IAED,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC;IAClE,OAAO,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;AAChC,CAAC;AAaD,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,qCAAqC,CAAC;AAErD,MAAM,UAAU,YAAY,CAAC,KAAiB;IAC5C,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE;SACxB,OAAO,CAAC,0CAA0C,CAAC;SACnD,GAAG,EAAqD,CAAC;IAC5D,IAAI,UAAU,CAAC,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QAC5B,OAAO,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,yBAAyB,EAAE,CAAC;IACtF,CAAC;IAED,sBAAsB;IACtB,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,EAA4C,CAAC;IACpE,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC;QAC3B,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC9C,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;YAAE,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QAClE,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAE,CAAC;QAC7B,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;QACb,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC;YAAE,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;IAC3C,CAAC;IAED,yDAAyD;IACzD,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAChE,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACtB,OAAO;YACL,gBAAgB,EAAE,CAAC;YACnB,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM;YACpB,cAAc,EAAE,QAAQ,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,gDAAgD;SACtF,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;IAED,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC;IACxB,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACrD,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACrD,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAChE,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEhE,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACtC,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,KAAK,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC;IAElE,OAAO;QACL,gBAAgB,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI;QACjD,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;QACR,cAAc,EAAE,wBAAwB,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;KACnD,CAAC;AACJ,CAAC;AAED,SAAS,wBAAwB,CAAC,KAAa,EAAE,KAAa;IAC5D,IAAI,KAAK,GAAG,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;QAChB,OAAO,sDAAsD,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,uFAAuF,CAAC;IAC/K,CAAC;IACD,IAAI,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;QACjB,OAAO,6CAA6C,KAAK,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,uDAAuD,CAAC;IAC9H,CAAC;IACD,OAAO,gCAAgC,KAAK,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,uDAAuD,KAAK,SAAS,CAAC;AAC/H,CAAC;AAED,SAAS,OAAO,CAAC,CAAO;IACtB,4BAA4B;IAC5B,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IACrC,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IACtC,MAAM,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACnD,MAAM,aAAa,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC;IACvC,MAAM,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACzB,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QAC7B,MAAM,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAChE,CAAC;IACD,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,aAAa,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACxF,OAAO,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,EAAE,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;AACzE,CAAC;AAaD,MAAM,UAAU,YAAY,CAAC,KAAiB,EAAE,OAAuB,EAAE;IACvE,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;IACnC,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE;SAClB,OAAO,CACN;;;wBAGkB,CACnB;SACA,GAAG,EAAiD,CAAC;IAExD,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC;IACvB,MAAM,SAAS,GAAa,EAAE,CAAC;IAC/B,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;QACrB,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,UAAU,CAAC;QAC7E,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI,UAAU;YAAE,SAAS,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;IAC/C,CAAC;IAED,MAAM,GAAG,GACP,SAAS,CAAC,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,SAAS,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC;IAEnG,OAAO;QACL,UAAU,EAAE,SAAS,CAAC,MAAM;QAC5B,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG;QACjB,cAAc,EACZ,SAAS,CAAC,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC;YACpB,CAAC,CAAC,+CAA+C;YACjD,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,SAAS,CAAC,MAAM,wCAAwC,GAAG,+DAA+D;KACpI,CAAC;AACJ,CAAC;AAUD,MAAM,UAAU,aAAa,CAAC,KAAiB,EAAE,OAAuB,EAAE;IACxE,OAAO;QACL,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC;QAC1B,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC;QAC1B,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC;KACjC,CAAC;AACJ,CAAC"}

package/dist/quant/greek.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=greek.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/greek.test.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"greek.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/greek.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/quant/greek.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
+import { describe, it, expect, beforeEach, afterEach } from "vitest";
+import { mkdtempSync, rmSync } from "node:fs";
+import { join } from "node:path";
+import { tmpdir } from "node:os";
+import { MnemeStore } from "../store/sqlite.js";
+import { computeDelta, computeGamma, computeTheta, computeGreeks } from "./greek.js";
+let tmpDir;
+let store;
+beforeEach(() => {
+    tmpDir = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), "mneme-greek-"));
+    store = new MnemeStore(join(tmpDir, "mneme.db"));
+});
+afterEach(() => {
+    store.close();
+    rmSync(tmpDir, { recursive: true, force: true });
+});
+const cmt = (hash, author, date, subject, files) => ({
+    hash,
+    shortHash: hash.slice(0, 7),
+    authorName: author,
+    authorEmail: `${author}@x`,
+    authorDate: `${date}T00:00:00Z`,
+    committerDate: `${date}T00:00:00Z`,
+    subject,
+    body: "",
+    parents: [],
+    files,
+});
+function seed(commits) {
+    store.upsertCommits(commits);
+    for (const c of commits) {
+        store.upsertFileChanges(c.files.map((f) => ({ commitHash: c.hash, path: f, changeKind: "M", insertions: 1, deletions: 0 })));
+    }
+}
+describe("computeDelta — knowledge loss per top contributor", () => {
+    it("flags author who owns ≥ 75% of a file", () => {
+        seed([
+            cmt("a1", "alice", "2024-08-01", "x", ["src/auth.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "alice", "2024-08-02", "x", ["src/auth.ts"]),
+            cmt("a3", "alice", "2024-08-03", "x", ["src/auth.ts"]),
+            cmt("b1", "bob", "2024-08-04", "x", ["src/auth.ts"]),
+        ]);
+        const result = computeDelta(store);
+        const alice = result.find((d) => d.name === "alice");
+        expect(alice).toBeDefined();
+        expect(alice.ownedFiles).toContain("src/auth.ts");
+    });
+    it("does NOT flag when no author dominates ≥ 75%", () => {
+        seed([
+            cmt("a1", "alice", "2024-08-01", "x", ["src/x.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "alice", "2024-08-02", "x", ["src/x.ts"]),
+            cmt("b1", "bob", "2024-08-03", "x", ["src/x.ts"]),
+            cmt("b2", "bob", "2024-08-04", "x", ["src/x.ts"]),
+        ]);
+        const result = computeDelta(store);
+        expect(result.length === 0 || result.every((r) => !r.ownedFiles.includes("src/x.ts"))).toBe(true);
+    });
+    it("computes knowledgeLossPct as fraction of total files", () => {
+        seed([
+            cmt("a1", "alice", "2024-08-01", "x", ["src/a.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "alice", "2024-08-02", "x", ["src/a.ts"]),
+            cmt("a3", "alice", "2024-08-03", "x", ["src/a.ts"]),
+            cmt("b1", "bob", "2024-08-04", "x", ["src/b.ts"]),
+        ]);
+        const result = computeDelta(store);
+        const alice = result.find((d) => d.name === "alice");
+        // alice owns 1 of 2 total files = 50%
+        expect(alice.knowledgeLossPct).toBe(50);
+    });
+    it("respects topN cap", () => {
+        const commits = [];
+        for (let i = 0; i < 30; i++) {
+            const day = String((i % 28) + 1).padStart(2, "0");
+            commits.push(cmt(`a${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), `dev${i}`, `2024-08-${day}`, "x", [`f${i}.ts`]));
+        }
+        seed(commits);
+        expect(computeDelta(store, { topN: 5 }).length).toBeLessThanOrEqual(5);
+    });
+});
+describe("computeGamma — risk acceleration via linear regression", () => {
+    it("returns 0 with helpful message when too few weeks", () => {
+        seed([cmt("a1", "alice", "2024-08-01", "feat: x", [])]);
+        const g = computeGamma(store);
+        expect(g.weeks).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1);
+        expect(g.interpretation.toLowerCase()).toMatch(/no commits|need|few/);
+    });
+    it("super-linear interpretation when slope > 0.3", () => {
+        // Construct weeks where fix count grows fast with total
+        const commits = [];
+        // Week 1: 2 commits, 0 fixes
+        commits.push(cmt("c1", "a", "2024-01-01", "feat: x", []));
+        commits.push(cmt("c2", "a", "2024-01-02", "feat: y", []));
+        // Week 2: 4 commits, 1 fix
+        commits.push(cmt("c3", "a", "2024-01-08", "feat: 1", []));
+        commits.push(cmt("c4", "a", "2024-01-09", "feat: 2", []));
+        commits.push(cmt("c5", "a", "2024-01-10", "feat: 3", []));
+        commits.push(cmt("c6", "a", "2024-01-11", "fix: 1", []));
+        // Week 3: 8 commits, 4 fixes
+        for (let i = 0; i < 4; i++)
+            commits.push(cmt(`f${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), "a", `2024-01-${15 + i}`, "feat", []));
+        for (let i = 0; i < 4; i++)
+            commits.push(cmt(`x${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), "a", `2024-01-${15 + i}`, "fix: y", []));
+        seed(commits);
+        const g = computeGamma(store);
+        expect(g.weeks).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(3);
+        expect(g.riskAcceleration).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    });
+});
+describe("computeTheta — time decay / stale files", () => {
+    it("counts files untouched for ≥ 6 months", () => {
+        seed([
+            cmt("a1", "alice", "2024-01-01", "x", ["src/legacy.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "alice", "2024-08-01", "x", ["src/active.ts"]),
+        ]);
+        const theta = computeTheta(store, { now: new Date("2024-12-01T00:00:00Z") });
+        expect(theta.staleFiles).toBe(1);
+        expect(theta.avgStaleDays).toBeGreaterThan(180);
+    });
+    it("returns zero when all files are recently touched", () => {
+        seed([
+            cmt("a1", "alice", "2024-11-01", "x", ["src/x.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "alice", "2024-11-02", "x", ["src/y.ts"]),
+        ]);
+        const theta = computeTheta(store, { now: new Date("2024-12-01T00:00:00Z") });
+        expect(theta.staleFiles).toBe(0);
+        expect(theta.interpretation.toLowerCase()).toMatch(/recently|no stale/);
+    });
+});
+describe("computeGreeks — composite report", () => {
+    it("returns all three (delta, gamma, theta)", () => {
+        seed([cmt("a1", "alice", "2024-08-01", "feat: x", ["src/x.ts"])]);
+        const r = computeGreeks(store);
+        expect(r.delta).toBeDefined();
+        expect(r.gamma).toBeDefined();
+        expect(r.theta).toBeDefined();
+    });
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=greek.test.js.map

package/dist/quant/greek.test.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"greek.test.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/greek.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,QAAQ,CAAC;AACrE,OAAO,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,SAAS,CAAC;AAC9C,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,WAAW,CAAC;AACjC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,SAAS,CAAC;AACjC,OAAO,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AAChD,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC;AAGrF,IAAI,MAAc,CAAC;AACnB,IAAI,KAAiB,CAAC;AAEtB,UAAU,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE;IACd,MAAM,GAAG,WAAW,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,cAAc,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACrD,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,UAAU,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACnD,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,SAAS,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE;IACb,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;IACd,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;AACnD,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,IAAY,EAAE,MAAc,EAAE,IAAY,EAAE,OAAe,EAAE,KAAe,EAAU,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IACrG,IAAI;IACJ,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IAC3B,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM;IAClB,WAAW,EAAE,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI;IAC1B,UAAU,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,YAAY;IAC/B,aAAa,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,YAAY;IAClC,OAAO;IACP,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE;IACR,OAAO,EAAE,EAAE;IACX,KAAK;CACN,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,SAAS,IAAI,CAAC,OAAiB;IAC7B,KAAK,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;IAC7B,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC;QACxB,KAAK,CAAC,iBAAiB,CACrB,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,GAAY,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAC7G,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;AACH,CAAC;AAED,QAAQ,CAAC,mDAAmD,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IACjE,EAAE,CAAC,uCAAuC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC/C,IAAI,CAAC;YACH,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;YACtD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;YACtD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;YACtD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;SACrD,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,YAAY,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;QACnC,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;QACrD,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;QAC5B,MAAM,CAAC,KAAM,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;IACrD,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,8CAA8C,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACtD,IAAI,CAAC;YACH,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;YACnD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;YACnD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;YACjD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;SAClD,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,YAAY,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;QACnC,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;IACpG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,sDAAsD,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC9D,IAAI,CAAC;YACH,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;YACnD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;YACnD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;YACnD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;SAClD,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,YAAY,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;QACnC,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,OAAO,CAAE,CAAC;QACtD,sCAAsC;QACtC,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,gBAAgB,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IAC1C,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,mBAAmB,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC3B,MAAM,OAAO,GAAa,EAAE,CAAC;QAC7B,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC;YAC5B,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;YAClD,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,WAAW,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC5F,CAAC;QACD,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;QACd,MAAM,CAAC,YAAY,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,mBAAmB,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACzE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,QAAQ,CAAC,wDAAwD,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IACtE,EAAE,CAAC,mDAAmD,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC3D,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACxD,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,YAAY,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;QAC9B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,mBAAmB,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACvC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAAC,CAAC;IACxE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,8CAA8C,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACtD,wDAAwD;QACxD,MAAM,OAAO,GAAa,EAAE,CAAC;QAC7B,6BAA6B;QAC7B,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1D,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1D,2BAA2B;QAC3B,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1D,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1D,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1D,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACzD,6BAA6B;QAC7B,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE;YAAE,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC5G,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE;YAAE,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC9G,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;QACd,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,YAAY,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;QAC9B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,sBAAsB,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1C,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,gBAAgB,CAAC,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAChD,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,QAAQ,CAAC,yCAAyC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IACvD,EAAE,CAAC,uCAAuC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC/C,IAAI,CAAC;YACH,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;YACxD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;SACzD,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,YAAY,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,sBAAsB,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QAC7E,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACjC,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,YAAY,CAAC,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IAClD,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,kDAAkD,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC1D,IAAI,CAAC;YACH,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;YACnD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;SACpD,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,YAAY,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,sBAAsB,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QAC7E,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACjC,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,mBAAmB,CAAC,CAAC;IAC1E,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,QAAQ,CAAC,kCAAkC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IAChD,EAAE,CAAC,yCAAyC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACjD,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAClE,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,aAAa,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;QAC/B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;QAC9B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;QAC9B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;IAChC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC"}

package/dist/quant/implied-volatility.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme implied-volatility` — predict project chaos from commit message TONE.
+ *
+ * Wall Street's "implied volatility" measures market expectation of future
+ * turbulence FROM option prices, before realized volatility shows up in
+ * actual price moves. We do the same with commit messages: signals that
+ * predict bug-rate spikes BEFORE the bugs actually land.
+ *
+ * Tone signals (per commit):
+ *   • exclamation density:    !!! → urgency
+ *   • all-caps words:         BROKEN, ARGH → frustration
+ *   • emoji density:          🔥💀⚠️ → emotional load
+ *   • profanity (mild):       wtf, ugh → friction
+ *   • hedging language:       "kinda", "should work?", "maybe" → uncertainty
+ *
+ * Aggregate per week → IV index (0-100). Backtests against subsequent
+ * fix-commit rate to validate.
+ */
+import type { Commit } from "../types.js";
+export interface CommitTone {
+    /** Hash of the commit. */
+    hash: string;
+    date: string;
+    /** Number of consecutive '!' marks. */
+    exclamationScore: number;
+    /** Number of all-caps words (≥ 3 chars). */
+    allCapsScore: number;
+    /** Estimated number of emoji code points. */
+    emojiScore: number;
+    /** Mild-profanity / frustration markers. */
+    frictionScore: number;
+    /** Hedging / uncertainty markers. */
+    hedgeScore: number;
+    /** Aggregate tone (0..1) — calibrated weight of all signals. */
+    toneScore: number;
+}
+export interface VolatilityWindow {
+    /** ISO week label e.g. "2024-W32". */
+    week: string;
+    /** Average tone across commits in this window. */
+    avgTone: number;
+    /** Number of commits in the window. */
+    commitCount: number;
+    /** Volatility index (0..100) = avgTone × 100. */
+    iv: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Score the tone of a single commit subject + body. Pure function.
+ */
+export declare function scoreTone(c: Commit): CommitTone;
+/**
+ * Aggregate tones into weekly volatility windows.
+ */
+export declare function impliedVolatility(commits: Commit[]): VolatilityWindow[];
+export interface VolatilitySummary {
+    windows: VolatilityWindow[];
+    /** Latest IV (most recent week). */
+    latestIV: number;
+    /** Trend over the last 4 weeks: rising / falling / flat. */
+    trend: "rising" | "falling" | "flat" | "insufficient-data";
+    /** A 1-line interpretation. */
+    interpretation: string;
+}
+export declare function summarizeVolatility(commits: Commit[]): VolatilitySummary;
+//# sourceMappingURL=implied-volatility.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/implied-volatility.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"implied-volatility.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/implied-volatility.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAiBG;AAEH,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,aAAa,CAAC;AAE1C,MAAM,WAAW,UAAU;IACzB,0BAA0B;IAC1B,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACb,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACb,uCAAuC;IACvC,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACzB,4CAA4C;IAC5C,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACrB,6CAA6C;IAC7C,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACnB,4CAA4C;IAC5C,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACtB,qCAAqC;IACrC,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACnB,gEAAgE;IAChE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACnB;AAED,MAAM,WAAW,gBAAgB;IAC/B,sCAAsC;IACtC,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACb,kDAAkD;IAClD,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAChB,uCAAuC;IACvC,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACpB,iDAAiD;IACjD,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACZ;AAmBD;;GAEG;AACH,wBAAgB,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,UAAU,CAmD/C;AAED;;GAEG;AACH,wBAAgB,iBAAiB,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,gBAAgB,EAAE,CAwBvE;AAeD,MAAM,WAAW,iBAAiB;IAChC,OAAO,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,CAAC;IAC5B,oCAAoC;IACpC,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACjB,4DAA4D;IAC5D,KAAK,EAAE,QAAQ,GAAG,SAAS,GAAG,MAAM,GAAG,mBAAmB,CAAC;IAC3D,+BAA+B;IAC/B,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACxB;AAED,wBAAgB,mBAAmB,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,iBAAiB,CAexE"}

package/dist/quant/implied-volatility.js

@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme implied-volatility` — predict project chaos from commit message TONE.
+ *
+ * Wall Street's "implied volatility" measures market expectation of future
+ * turbulence FROM option prices, before realized volatility shows up in
+ * actual price moves. We do the same with commit messages: signals that
+ * predict bug-rate spikes BEFORE the bugs actually land.
+ *
+ * Tone signals (per commit):
+ *   • exclamation density:    !!! → urgency
+ *   • all-caps words:         BROKEN, ARGH → frustration
+ *   • emoji density:          🔥💀⚠️ → emotional load
+ *   • profanity (mild):       wtf, ugh → friction
+ *   • hedging language:       "kinda", "should work?", "maybe" → uncertainty
+ *
+ * Aggregate per week → IV index (0-100). Backtests against subsequent
+ * fix-commit rate to validate.
+ */
+const FRICTION_WORDS = new Set([
+    "wtf", "ugh", "argh", "ffs", "damn", "shit", "fuck", "fucking",
+    "wth", "omg", "yikes", "oof", "ouch",
+    "broken", "borked", "fucked", "cursed",
+]);
+const HEDGE_WORDS = new Set([
+    "maybe", "probably", "kinda", "sorta", "perhaps",
+    "should", "might", "could", "hopefully", "fingers",
+    "untested", "experimental", "tentative", "wip",
+]);
+const ALL_CAPS_WORD_RE = /\b[A-Z]{3,}\b/g;
+const EXCLAMATION_RE = /!+/g;
+// Heuristic emoji match: any code point ≥ U+2600 not in regular Latin block
+const EMOJI_RE = /[\u{1F300}-\u{1FAFF}\u{2600}-\u{27BF}]/gu;
+/**
+ * Score the tone of a single commit subject + body. Pure function.
+ */
+export function scoreTone(c) {
+    const text = `${c.subject} ${c.body || ""}`;
+    // Exclamation density: count sequences of '!' (any count of !!!! is one event).
+    let exMatches = 0;
+    for (const m of text.matchAll(EXCLAMATION_RE)) {
+        exMatches += m[0].length; // double-count !!!!
+    }
+    // All-caps words.
+    const capMatches = text.match(ALL_CAPS_WORD_RE) ?? [];
+    const allCapsScore = capMatches.length;
+    // Emoji.
+    const emoji = text.match(EMOJI_RE) ?? [];
+    // Friction words.
+    const lower = text.toLowerCase();
+    let frictionScore = 0;
+    for (const w of FRICTION_WORDS) {
+        const re = new RegExp(`\\b${w}\\b`, "g");
+        const m = lower.match(re);
+        if (m)
+            frictionScore += m.length;
+    }
+    // Hedge words.
+    let hedgeScore = 0;
+    for (const w of HEDGE_WORDS) {
+        const re = new RegExp(`\\b${w}\\b`, "g");
+        const m = lower.match(re);
+        if (m)
+            hedgeScore += m.length;
+    }
+    // Calibrated tone score (0..1).
+    const raw = 0.25 * Math.min(exMatches, 5) / 5 +
+        0.20 * Math.min(allCapsScore, 5) / 5 +
+        0.15 * Math.min(emoji.length, 5) / 5 +
+        0.25 * Math.min(frictionScore, 3) / 3 +
+        0.15 * Math.min(hedgeScore, 3) / 3;
+    return {
+        hash: c.hash,
+        date: c.authorDate.slice(0, 10),
+        exclamationScore: exMatches,
+        allCapsScore,
+        emojiScore: emoji.length,
+        frictionScore,
+        hedgeScore,
+        toneScore: Math.min(1, raw),
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Aggregate tones into weekly volatility windows.
+ */
+export function impliedVolatility(commits) {
+    if (commits.length === 0)
+        return [];
+    const tones = commits.map(scoreTone);
+    const buckets = new Map();
+    for (const t of tones) {
+        const week = isoWeek(new Date(t.date));
+        if (!buckets.has(week))
+            buckets.set(week, { sum: 0, count: 0 });
+        const b = buckets.get(week);
+        b.sum += t.toneScore;
+        b.count += 1;
+    }
+    const windows = [];
+    for (const [week, b] of buckets) {
+        const avgTone = b.sum / b.count;
+        windows.push({
+            week,
+            avgTone: Math.round(avgTone * 1000) / 1000,
+            commitCount: b.count,
+            iv: Math.round(avgTone * 100),
+        });
+    }
+    windows.sort((a, b) => a.week.localeCompare(b.week));
+    return windows;
+}
+function isoWeek(d) {
+    const target = new Date(d.valueOf());
+    const dayNr = (d.getUTCDay() + 6) % 7;
+    target.setUTCDate(target.getUTCDate() - dayNr + 3);
+    const firstThursday = target.valueOf();
+    target.setUTCMonth(0, 1);
+    if (target.getUTCDay() !== 4) {
+        target.setUTCMonth(0, 1 + ((4 - target.getUTCDay() + 7) % 7));
+    }
+    const weekNumber = 1 + Math.ceil((firstThursday - target.valueOf()) / (7 * 86_400_000));
+    return `${d.getUTCFullYear()}-W${String(weekNumber).padStart(2, "0")}`;
+}
+export function summarizeVolatility(commits) {
+    const windows = impliedVolatility(commits);
+    if (windows.length === 0) {
+        return { windows: [], latestIV: 0, trend: "insufficient-data", interpretation: "No commits indexed." };
+    }
+    const latest = windows[windows.length - 1].iv;
+    let trend = "insufficient-data";
+    if (windows.length >= 4) {
+        const recent = windows.slice(-4).map((w) => w.iv);
+        const first = recent[0];
+        const last = recent[recent.length - 1];
+        const delta = last - first;
+        trend = delta > 5 ? "rising" : delta < -5 ? "falling" : "flat";
+    }
+    return { windows, latestIV: latest, trend, interpretation: buildVolInterpretation(latest, trend) };
+}
+function buildVolInterpretation(iv, trend) {
+    if (trend === "rising" && iv >= 30) {
+        return `IV is ${iv} (rising) — commit message tone is signaling stress. Expect more bug fixes in the next 1-2 weeks.`;
+    }
+    if (iv >= 50)
+        return `IV is ${iv} (very high). Team is in firefighting mode.`;
+    if (iv <= 10 && trend === "flat")
+        return `IV is ${iv} (low + flat). Calm waters; commits are unemotional.`;
+    return `IV is ${iv} (${trend}). Watch for rising trends as a leading indicator of bugs.`;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=implied-volatility.js.map

package/dist/quant/implied-volatility.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"implied-volatility.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/implied-volatility.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAiBG;AAiCH,MAAM,cAAc,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC;IAC7B,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,SAAS;IAC9D,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM;IACpC,QAAQ,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,QAAQ;CACvC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,MAAM,WAAW,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC;IAC1B,OAAO,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,SAAS;IAChD,QAAQ,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,SAAS;IAClD,UAAU,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,KAAK;CAC/C,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,MAAM,gBAAgB,GAAG,gBAAgB,CAAC;AAC1C,MAAM,cAAc,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC;AAC7B,4EAA4E;AAC5E,MAAM,QAAQ,GAAG,0CAA0C,CAAC;AAE5D;;GAEG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,SAAS,CAAC,CAAS;IACjC,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC;IAE5C,gFAAgF;IAChF,IAAI,SAAS,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IAClB,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QAC9C,SAAS,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,oBAAoB;IAChD,CAAC;IAED,kBAAkB;IAClB,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,gBAAgB,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;IACtD,MAAM,YAAY,GAAG,UAAU,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC;IAEvC,SAAS;IACT,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;IAEzC,kBAAkB;IAClB,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;IACjC,IAAI,aAAa,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IACtB,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,cAAc,EAAE,CAAC;QAC/B,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;QACzC,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1B,IAAI,CAAC;YAAE,aAAa,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC;IACnC,CAAC;IAED,eAAe;IACf,IAAI,UAAU,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IACnB,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;QAC5B,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;QACzC,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1B,IAAI,CAAC;YAAE,UAAU,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC;IAChC,CAAC;IAED,gCAAgC;IAChC,MAAM,GAAG,GACP,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;QACjC,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;QACpC,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;QACpC,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,aAAa,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;QACrC,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IAErC,OAAO;QACL,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI;QACZ,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC;QAC/B,gBAAgB,EAAE,SAAS;QAC3B,YAAY;QACZ,UAAU,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,MAAM;QACxB,aAAa;QACb,UAAU;QACV,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC;KAC5B,CAAC;AACJ,CAAC;AAED;;GAEG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,iBAAiB,CAAC,OAAiB;IACjD,IAAI,OAAO,CAAC,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC;QAAE,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC;IACpC,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC;IACrC,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,EAA0C,CAAC;IAClE,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;QACtB,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACvC,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;YAAE,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QAChE,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAE,CAAC;QAC7B,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC;QACrB,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;IACf,CAAC;IAED,MAAM,OAAO,GAAuB,EAAE,CAAC;IACvC,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC;QAChC,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC;QAChC,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;YACX,IAAI;YACJ,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,OAAO,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI;YAC1C,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK;YACpB,EAAE,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,OAAO,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC;SAC9B,CAAC,CAAC;IACL,CAAC;IACD,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACrD,OAAO,OAAO,CAAC;AACjB,CAAC;AAED,SAAS,OAAO,CAAC,CAAO;IACtB,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IACrC,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IACtC,MAAM,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACnD,MAAM,aAAa,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC;IACvC,MAAM,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACzB,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QAC7B,MAAM,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAChE,CAAC;IACD,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,aAAa,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACxF,OAAO,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,EAAE,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;AACzE,CAAC;AAYD,MAAM,UAAU,mBAAmB,CAAC,OAAiB;IACnD,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,iBAAiB,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;IAC3C,IAAI,OAAO,CAAC,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACzB,OAAO,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,qBAAqB,EAAE,CAAC;IACzG,CAAC;IACD,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,CAAC,CAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;IAC/C,IAAI,KAAK,GAA+B,mBAAmB,CAAC;IAC5D,IAAI,OAAO,CAAC,MAAM,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACxB,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QAClD,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAE,CAAC;QACzB,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,CAAC,CAAE,CAAC;QACxC,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC;QAC3B,KAAK,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC;IACjE,CAAC;IACD,OAAO,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,sBAAsB,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;AACrG,CAAC;AAED,SAAS,sBAAsB,CAAC,EAAU,EAAE,KAAiC;IAC3E,IAAI,KAAK,KAAK,QAAQ,IAAI,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC;QACnC,OAAO,SAAS,EAAE,mGAAmG,CAAC;IACxH,CAAC;IACD,IAAI,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;QAAE,OAAO,SAAS,EAAE,6CAA6C,CAAC;IAC9E,IAAI,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,IAAI,KAAK,KAAK,MAAM;QAAE,OAAO,SAAS,EAAE,sDAAsD,CAAC;IAC3G,OAAO,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,KAAK,4DAA4D,CAAC;AAC3F,CAAC"}

package/dist/quant/implied-volatility.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=implied-volatility.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/implied-volatility.test.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"implied-volatility.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/implied-volatility.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}