@mneme-ai/core 0.8.4 → 0.10.0

package/dist/quant/backtest.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"backtest.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/backtest.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAeG;AAiCH;;;GAGG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,QAAQ,CAAC,OAAyB;IAChD,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC;IACzB,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IACX,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IACX,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IACX,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IACX,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC;QACxB,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM;YAAE,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;aAChC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM;YAAE,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;aACtC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM;YAAE,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;;YACvC,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;IACf,CAAC;IAED,MAAM,SAAS,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IACrD,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IAClD,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,SAAS,GAAG,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,SAAS,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,SAAS,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC;IAC1F,MAAM,QAAQ,GAAG,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IAC7C,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,QAAQ,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC;IAEvD,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,eAAe,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAC5D,OAAO;QACL,CAAC;QACD,aAAa,EAAE,EAAE;QACjB,cAAc,EAAE,EAAE;QAClB,aAAa,EAAE,EAAE;QACjB,cAAc,EAAE,EAAE;QAClB,SAAS;QACT,MAAM;QACN,EAAE;QACF,QAAQ;QACR,IAAI;QACJ,OAAO;QACP,UAAU,EAAE,eAAe,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC;KACjE,CAAC;AACJ,CAAC;AAED,MAAM,UAAU,eAAe,CAC7B,IAAY,EACZ,SAAiB,EACjB,MAAc,EACd,CAAS;IAET,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;QAAE,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,mBAAmB;IAChD,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,SAAS,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG;QAAE,OAAO,aAAa,CAAC;IAC3E,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,SAAS,IAAI,GAAG;QAAE,OAAO,WAAW,CAAC;IACxD,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG;QAAE,OAAO,MAAM,CAAC;IAC/B,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC;AACnB,CAAC;AAED,SAAS,eAAe,CACtB,OAAkC,EAClC,CAAS,EACT,SAAiB,EACjB,MAAc,EACd,IAAY;IAEZ,QAAQ,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC;QAChB,KAAK,SAAS;YACZ,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;gBAAE,OAAO,4BAA4B,CAAC,wBAAwB,CAAC;YACxE,OAAO,8CAA8C,CAAC,SAAS,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;QAClH,KAAK,MAAM;YACT,OAAO,+BAA+B,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,4BAA4B,CAAC,SAAS,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,yBAAyB,CAAC;QACvJ,KAAK,WAAW;YACd,OAAO,oCAAoC,CAAC,SAAS,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,gBAAgB,CAAC;QAC/G,KAAK,aAAa;YAChB,OAAO,2BAA2B,CAAC,SAAS,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,sCAAsC,CAAC;IACpK,CAAC;AACH,CAAC;AAED;;;GAGG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,KAAK,CAAC,MAAsB;IAC1C,OAAO,QAAQ,MAAM,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;AAC1F,CAAC"}

package/dist/quant/backtest.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=backtest.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/backtest.test.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"backtest.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/backtest.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/quant/backtest.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
+import { backtest, classifyVerdict, badge } from "./backtest.js";
+describe("backtest — confusion matrix counts", () => {
+    it("perfect predictor — all TP, no FP/FN", () => {
+        const r = backtest([
+            { id: "a", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "b", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "c", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "d", predicted: false, actual: false },
+        ]);
+        expect(r.truePositives).toBe(2);
+        expect(r.falsePositives).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.trueNegatives).toBe(2);
+        expect(r.falseNegatives).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.precision).toBe(1);
+        expect(r.recall).toBe(1);
+        expect(r.f1).toBe(1);
+    });
+    it("worst predictor — all FP and FN", () => {
+        const r = backtest([
+            { id: "a", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "b", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "c", predicted: false, actual: true },
+            { id: "d", predicted: false, actual: true },
+        ]);
+        expect(r.truePositives).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.precision).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.recall).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.f1).toBe(0);
+    });
+    it("balanced realistic case", () => {
+        // 14 samples, 6 predicted high-risk, 4 of those actually had incidents
+        // 8 predicted clean, 2 actually had incidents
+        // Total positives: 6 (4 + 2)
+        const samples = [
+            { id: "1", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "2", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "3", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "4", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "5", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "6", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "7", predicted: false, actual: true },
+            { id: "8", predicted: false, actual: true },
+            { id: "9", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "10", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "11", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "12", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "13", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "14", predicted: false, actual: false },
+        ];
+        const r = backtest(samples);
+        expect(r.precision).toBeCloseTo(4 / 6, 4);
+        expect(r.recall).toBeCloseTo(4 / 6, 4);
+        expect(r.f1).toBeCloseTo(4 / 6, 4);
+        expect(r.baseRate).toBeCloseTo(6 / 14, 4);
+        expect(r.lift).toBeCloseTo((4 / 6) / (6 / 14), 4);
+    });
+});
+describe("backtest — edge cases", () => {
+    it("empty input returns zeros + no-edge verdict", () => {
+        const r = backtest([]);
+        expect(r.n).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.precision).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.recall).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.f1).toBe(0);
+        expect(r.verdict).toBe("no-edge");
+    });
+    it("no positive predictions → precision = 0 (avoids div by zero)", () => {
+        const r = backtest([
+            { id: "1", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "2", predicted: false, actual: true },
+        ]);
+        expect(r.precision).toBe(0);
+    });
+    it("no actual positives → recall = 0", () => {
+        const r = backtest([
+            { id: "1", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "2", predicted: false, actual: false },
+        ]);
+        expect(r.recall).toBe(0);
+    });
+});
+describe("classifyVerdict — tier from lift × precision × recall", () => {
+    it("strong-edge for high precision + recall + 2.5× lift", () => {
+        expect(classifyVerdict(3, 0.7, 0.6, 20)).toBe("strong-edge");
+    });
+    it("real-edge for moderate metrics", () => {
+        expect(classifyVerdict(1.8, 0.5, 0.4, 20)).toBe("real-edge");
+    });
+    it("weak for lift ≥ 1.1 only", () => {
+        expect(classifyVerdict(1.2, 0.3, 0.3, 20)).toBe("weak");
+    });
+    it("no-edge for too-small samples", () => {
+        expect(classifyVerdict(5, 0.9, 0.9, 4)).toBe("no-edge");
+    });
+    it("no-edge when no lift over random", () => {
+        expect(classifyVerdict(0.9, 0.3, 0.3, 20)).toBe("no-edge");
+    });
+});
+describe("badge — one-line summary string", () => {
+    it("includes F1, lift, and n", () => {
+        const r = backtest([
+            { id: "1", predicted: true, actual: true },
+            { id: "2", predicted: true, actual: false },
+            { id: "3", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "4", predicted: false, actual: false },
+            { id: "5", predicted: false, actual: false },
+        ]);
+        const b = badge(r);
+        expect(b).toMatch(/F1 = \d/);
+        expect(b).toMatch(/× lift/);
+        expect(b).toMatch(/n=5/);
+    });
+});
+describe("backtest — conclusion text adapts to verdict", () => {
+    it("no-edge mentions sample size for small n", () => {
+        const r = backtest([{ id: "1", predicted: true, actual: true }]);
+        expect(r.conclusion.toLowerCase()).toContain("sample");
+    });
+    it("strong-edge says 'trust' or 'real predictive'", () => {
+        // build samples with strong edge: lift ≥ 2.5, precision ≥ 0.6, recall ≥ 0.5
+        const samples = [
+            ...Array.from({ length: 8 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `tp${i}`, predicted: true, actual: true })),
+            ...Array.from({ length: 2 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `fp${i}`, predicted: true, actual: false })),
+            ...Array.from({ length: 4 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `fn${i}`, predicted: false, actual: true })),
+            ...Array.from({ length: 36 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `tn${i}`, predicted: false, actual: false })),
+        ];
+        const r = backtest(samples);
+        expect(r.verdict).toBe("strong-edge");
+        expect(r.conclusion.toLowerCase()).toMatch(/trust|strong/);
+    });
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=backtest.test.js.map

package/dist/quant/backtest.test.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"backtest.test.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/backtest.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,QAAQ,CAAC;AAC9C,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,eAAe,CAAC;AAEjE,QAAQ,CAAC,oCAAoC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IAClD,EAAE,CAAC,sCAAsC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC9C,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC;YACjB,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;YAC1C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;YAC1C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC5C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;SAC7C,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAChC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACjC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAChC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACjC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC5B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACzB,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACvB,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,iCAAiC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACzC,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC;YACjB,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC3C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC3C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;YAC3C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;SAC5C,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAChC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC5B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACzB,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACvB,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,yBAAyB,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACjC,uEAAuE;QACvE,8CAA8C;QAC9C,6BAA6B;QAC7B,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG;YACd,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;YAC1C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;YAC1C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;YAC1C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;YAC1C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC3C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC3C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;YAC3C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;YAC3C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC5C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC7C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC7C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC7C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC7C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;SAC9C,CAAC;QACF,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;QAC5B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1C,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACvC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACnC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1C,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACpD,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,QAAQ,CAAC,uBAAuB,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IACrC,EAAE,CAAC,6CAA6C,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACrD,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QACvB,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACpB,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC5B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACzB,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACrB,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC;IACpC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,8DAA8D,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACtE,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC;YACjB,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC5C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;SAC5C,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAC9B,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,kCAAkC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC1C,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC;YACjB,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC3C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;SAC7C,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAC3B,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,QAAQ,CAAC,uDAAuD,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IACrE,EAAE,CAAC,qDAAqD,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC7D,MAAM,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;IAC/D,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,gCAAgC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACxC,MAAM,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC;IAC/D,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,0BAA0B,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAClC,MAAM,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC;IAC1D,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,+BAA+B,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACvC,MAAM,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC;IAC1D,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,kCAAkC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC1C,MAAM,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC;IAC7D,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,QAAQ,CAAC,iCAAiC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IAC/C,EAAE,CAAC,0BAA0B,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAClC,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC;YACjB,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE;YAC1C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC3C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC5C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;YAC5C,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;SAC7C,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACnB,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC;QAC7B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;QAC5B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;IAC3B,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,QAAQ,CAAC,8CAA8C,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IAC5D,EAAE,CAAC,0CAA0C,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAClD,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACjE,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;IACzD,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,+CAA+C,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACvD,4EAA4E;QAC5E,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG;YACd,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;YACzF,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;YAC1F,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;YAC1F,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;SAC7F,CAAC;QACF,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;QAC5B,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;QACtC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,CAAC;IAC7D,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC"}

package/dist/quant/black-swan.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme black-swan` — find rare-but-catastrophic file patterns.
+ *
+ * Inspired by Taleb: real risk lives in the tail. Files touched rarely
+ * but tied to high-severity incidents are far more dangerous than
+ * frequently-touched files with proportional bug counts.
+ *
+ *   tail_risk = log(avg_severity + 1) × (1 / max(touch_frequency, 1))
+ *
+ * Files surface ranked by tail_risk — the silent assassins that look
+ * stable but explode when touched.
+ *
+ * Pure store-backed analysis. No LLM.
+ */
+import type { MnemeStore } from "../store/sqlite.js";
+export interface BlackSwanCandidate {
+    filePath: string;
+    /** Total commits that ever touched this file. */
+    touchCount: number;
+    /** Days since the last touch. */
+    daysSinceTouch: number;
+    /** Number of incidents associated with this file. */
+    incidentCount: number;
+    /** Mean severity (1=low, 5=critical). */
+    avgSeverity: number;
+    /** Tail-risk score — see formula above. */
+    tailRisk: number;
+    /** Tier label for output. */
+    tier: "deceptive-calm" | "elevated" | "watch" | "background";
+    /** A 1-line operational recommendation. */
+    recommendation: string;
+}
+/**
+ * Walk every indexed file, compute touch frequency + linked-incident
+ * severity, and rank by tail risk. Conservative defaults: files with
+ * < incidents are skipped (no tail without trouble).
+ */
+export declare function findBlackSwans(store: MnemeStore, opts?: {
+    topN?: number;
+    minIncidents?: number;
+    maxTouches?: number;
+    now?: Date;
+}): BlackSwanCandidate[];
+export declare function classifyBlackSwanTier(tailRisk: number, touches: number, avgSeverity: number): BlackSwanCandidate["tier"];
+//# sourceMappingURL=black-swan.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/black-swan.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"black-swan.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/black-swan.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAaG;AAEH,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AAErD,MAAM,WAAW,kBAAkB;IACjC,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACjB,iDAAiD;IACjD,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACnB,iCAAiC;IACjC,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACvB,qDAAqD;IACrD,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACtB,yCAAyC;IACzC,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACpB,2CAA2C;IAC3C,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACjB,6BAA6B;IAC7B,IAAI,EAAE,gBAAgB,GAAG,UAAU,GAAG,OAAO,GAAG,YAAY,CAAC;IAC7D,2CAA2C;IAC3C,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACxB;AAUD;;;;GAIG;AACH,wBAAgB,cAAc,CAC5B,KAAK,EAAE,UAAU,EACjB,IAAI,GAAE;IAAE,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAAC,YAAY,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAAC,UAAU,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,IAAI,CAAA;CAAO,GACnF,kBAAkB,EAAE,CAiEtB;AAED,wBAAgB,qBAAqB,CACnC,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,EAChB,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,EACf,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,GAClB,kBAAkB,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAK5B"}

package/dist/quant/black-swan.js

@@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme black-swan` — find rare-but-catastrophic file patterns.
+ *
+ * Inspired by Taleb: real risk lives in the tail. Files touched rarely
+ * but tied to high-severity incidents are far more dangerous than
+ * frequently-touched files with proportional bug counts.
+ *
+ *   tail_risk = log(avg_severity + 1) × (1 / max(touch_frequency, 1))
+ *
+ * Files surface ranked by tail_risk — the silent assassins that look
+ * stable but explode when touched.
+ *
+ * Pure store-backed analysis. No LLM.
+ */
+const SEVERITY_RANK = {
+    critical: 5,
+    high: 4,
+    medium: 3,
+    low: 2,
+    info: 1,
+};
+/**
+ * Walk every indexed file, compute touch frequency + linked-incident
+ * severity, and rank by tail risk. Conservative defaults: files with
+ * < incidents are skipped (no tail without trouble).
+ */
+export function findBlackSwans(store, opts = {}) {
+    const topN = opts.topN ?? 10;
+    const minIncidents = opts.minIncidents ?? 1;
+    const maxTouches = opts.maxTouches ?? 30;
+    const now = opts.now ?? new Date();
+    // Pull file → (touch count, last touch).
+    const fileRows = store.db
+        .prepare(`SELECT
+         fc.path                      AS path,
+         COUNT(*)                     AS touches,
+         MAX(c.author_date)           AS last_touch
+       FROM file_changes fc
+       JOIN commits c ON c.hash = fc.commit_hash
+       GROUP BY fc.path
+       HAVING touches <= ?`)
+        .all(maxTouches);
+    // Pull file → incidents (parsed from incidents.affected_files).
+    const incidentRows = store.db
+        .prepare(`SELECT severity, affected_files FROM incidents`)
+        .all();
+    // Build file → { incidentCount, severities[] }
+    const incidentsByFile = new Map();
+    for (const r of incidentRows) {
+        if (!r.affected_files)
+            continue;
+        let files = [];
+        try {
+            const parsed = JSON.parse(r.affected_files);
+            if (Array.isArray(parsed))
+                files = parsed.filter((x) => typeof x === "string");
+        }
+        catch {
+            // Fallback: comma-separated paths
+            files = r.affected_files.split(",").map((s) => s.trim()).filter(Boolean);
+        }
+        const sev = SEVERITY_RANK[r.severity?.toLowerCase()] ?? 3;
+        for (const f of files) {
+            if (!incidentsByFile.has(f))
+                incidentsByFile.set(f, []);
+            incidentsByFile.get(f).push(sev);
+        }
+    }
+    const candidates = [];
+    for (const r of fileRows) {
+        const sevs = incidentsByFile.get(r.path) ?? [];
+        if (sevs.length < minIncidents)
+            continue;
+        const avgSeverity = sevs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / sevs.length;
+        const daysSinceTouch = (now.getTime() - new Date(r.last_touch).getTime()) / 86_400_000;
+        const tailRisk = Math.log(avgSeverity + 1) * (1 / Math.max(r.touches, 1));
+        candidates.push({
+            filePath: r.path,
+            touchCount: r.touches,
+            daysSinceTouch: Math.round(daysSinceTouch),
+            incidentCount: sevs.length,
+            avgSeverity: Math.round(avgSeverity * 10) / 10,
+            tailRisk,
+            tier: classifyBlackSwanTier(tailRisk, r.touches, avgSeverity),
+            recommendation: buildBlackSwanRecommendation(r.touches, avgSeverity, daysSinceTouch),
+        });
+    }
+    candidates.sort((a, b) => b.tailRisk - a.tailRisk);
+    return candidates.slice(0, topN);
+}
+export function classifyBlackSwanTier(tailRisk, touches, avgSeverity) {
+    if (tailRisk >= 0.8 && touches <= 3 && avgSeverity >= 4)
+        return "deceptive-calm";
+    if (tailRisk >= 0.5 && avgSeverity >= 3)
+        return "elevated";
+    if (tailRisk >= 0.2)
+        return "watch";
+    return "background";
+}
+function buildBlackSwanRecommendation(touches, avgSeverity, daysSinceTouch) {
+    if (touches <= 2 && avgSeverity >= 4) {
+        return "Mandatory pair-program + canary deploy. This file LOOKS stable but its track record is catastrophic.";
+    }
+    if (avgSeverity >= 4) {
+        return "Code-freeze without 2 reviewers + load test required. High tail risk on edits.";
+    }
+    if (daysSinceTouch > 365) {
+        return "Untouched for 1+ year. Schedule a review session before the next change.";
+    }
+    return "Monitor closely. Run mneme blast on any commit that touches this file.";
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=black-swan.js.map

package/dist/quant/black-swan.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"black-swan.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/black-swan.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAaG;AAsBH,MAAM,aAAa,GAA2B;IAC5C,QAAQ,EAAE,CAAC;IACX,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;IACP,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC;IACT,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;IACN,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;CACR,CAAC;AAEF;;;;GAIG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,cAAc,CAC5B,KAAiB,EACjB,OAAkF,EAAE;IAEpF,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;IAC7B,MAAM,YAAY,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,YAAY,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;IAC5C,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,UAAU,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;IACzC,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;IAEnC,yCAAyC;IACzC,MAAM,QAAQ,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE;SACtB,OAAO,CACN;;;;;;;2BAOqB,CACtB;SACA,GAAG,CAAC,UAAU,CAAiE,CAAC;IAEnF,gEAAgE;IAChE,MAAM,YAAY,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE;SAC1B,OAAO,CAAC,gDAAgD,CAAC;SACzD,GAAG,EAAgE,CAAC;IAEvE,+CAA+C;IAC/C,MAAM,eAAe,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,EAAoB,CAAC;IACpD,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC;QAC7B,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc;YAAE,SAAS;QAChC,IAAI,KAAK,GAAa,EAAE,CAAC;QACzB,IAAI,CAAC;YACH,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,CAAC;YAC5C,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC;gBAAE,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAe,EAAE,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;QAC9F,CAAC;QAAC,MAAM,CAAC;YACP,kCAAkC;YAClC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;QAC3E,CAAC;QACD,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1D,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;YACtB,IAAI,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;gBAAE,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;YACxD,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAE,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;QACpC,CAAC;IACH,CAAC;IAED,MAAM,UAAU,GAAyB,EAAE,CAAC;IAC5C,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,QAAQ,EAAE,CAAC;QACzB,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;QAC/C,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,YAAY;YAAE,SAAS;QACzC,MAAM,WAAW,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC;QAClE,MAAM,cAAc,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,UAAU,CAAC;QACvF,MAAM,QAAQ,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,WAAW,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1E,UAAU,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;YACd,QAAQ,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI;YAChB,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO;YACrB,cAAc,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC;YAC1C,aAAa,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM;YAC1B,WAAW,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,WAAW,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE;YAC9C,QAAQ;YACR,IAAI,EAAE,qBAAqB,CAAC,QAAQ,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,WAAW,CAAC;YAC7D,cAAc,EAAE,4BAA4B,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,cAAc,CAAC;SACrF,CAAC,CAAC;IACL,CAAC;IAED,UAAU,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;IACnD,OAAO,UAAU,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;AACnC,CAAC;AAED,MAAM,UAAU,qBAAqB,CACnC,QAAgB,EAChB,OAAe,EACf,WAAmB;IAEnB,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,WAAW,IAAI,CAAC;QAAE,OAAO,gBAAgB,CAAC;IACjF,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,WAAW,IAAI,CAAC;QAAE,OAAO,UAAU,CAAC;IAC3D,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI,GAAG;QAAE,OAAO,OAAO,CAAC;IACpC,OAAO,YAAY,CAAC;AACtB,CAAC;AAED,SAAS,4BAA4B,CACnC,OAAe,EACf,WAAmB,EACnB,cAAsB;IAEtB,IAAI,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,WAAW,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACrC,OAAO,sGAAsG,CAAC;IAChH,CAAC;IACD,IAAI,WAAW,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACrB,OAAO,gFAAgF,CAAC;IAC1F,CAAC;IACD,IAAI,cAAc,GAAG,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;QACzB,OAAO,0EAA0E,CAAC;IACpF,CAAC;IACD,OAAO,wEAAwE,CAAC;AAClF,CAAC"}

package/dist/quant/black-swan.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=black-swan.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/black-swan.test.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"black-swan.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/black-swan.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/quant/black-swan.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+import { describe, it, expect, beforeEach, afterEach } from "vitest";
+import { mkdtempSync, rmSync } from "node:fs";
+import { join } from "node:path";
+import { tmpdir } from "node:os";
+import { MnemeStore } from "../store/sqlite.js";
+import { findBlackSwans, classifyBlackSwanTier } from "./black-swan.js";
+let tmpDir;
+let store;
+beforeEach(() => {
+    tmpDir = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), "mneme-bs-"));
+    store = new MnemeStore(join(tmpDir, "mneme.db"));
+});
+afterEach(() => {
+    store.close();
+    rmSync(tmpDir, { recursive: true, force: true });
+});
+const cmt = (hash, date, files) => ({
+    hash,
+    shortHash: hash.slice(0, 7),
+    authorName: "alice",
+    authorEmail: "a@x",
+    authorDate: `${date}T00:00:00Z`,
+    committerDate: `${date}T00:00:00Z`,
+    subject: "commit",
+    body: "",
+    parents: [],
+    files,
+});
+function seedCommits(commits) {
+    store.upsertCommits(commits);
+    for (const c of commits) {
+        store.upsertFileChanges(c.files.map((f) => ({
+            commitHash: c.hash,
+            path: f,
+            changeKind: "M",
+            insertions: 1,
+            deletions: 0,
+        })));
+    }
+}
+function seedIncident(severity, affectedFiles) {
+    store.db
+        .prepare(`INSERT INTO incidents (id, source, title, occurred_at, severity, affected_files)
+       VALUES (?, 'manual', ?, ?, ?, ?)`)
+        .run(`inc-${Math.random()}`, "test", "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", severity, JSON.stringify(affectedFiles));
+}
+describe("classifyBlackSwanTier", () => {
+    it('"deceptive-calm" for high tail risk + few touches + critical severity', () => {
+        expect(classifyBlackSwanTier(1.5, 2, 4.5)).toBe("deceptive-calm");
+    });
+    it('"elevated" for moderate tail risk + medium severity', () => {
+        expect(classifyBlackSwanTier(0.6, 5, 3.0)).toBe("elevated");
+    });
+    it('"watch" for low tail risk', () => {
+        expect(classifyBlackSwanTier(0.3, 10, 2.0)).toBe("watch");
+    });
+    it('"background" for tiny tail risk', () => {
+        expect(classifyBlackSwanTier(0.05, 30, 1.5)).toBe("background");
+    });
+});
+describe("findBlackSwans — basic detection", () => {
+    it("returns empty array when no incidents are linked to files", () => {
+        seedCommits([cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/x.ts"])]);
+        expect(findBlackSwans(store)).toEqual([]);
+    });
+    it("flags a low-touch + high-severity file as deceptive-calm", () => {
+        seedCommits([
+            cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/refund.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "2024-06-01", ["src/refund.ts"]),
+        ]);
+        seedIncident("critical", ["src/refund.ts"]);
+        seedIncident("critical", ["src/refund.ts"]);
+        const candidates = findBlackSwans(store, { now: new Date("2024-12-01T00:00:00Z") });
+        const refund = candidates.find((c) => c.filePath === "src/refund.ts");
+        expect(refund).toBeDefined();
+        expect(refund.incidentCount).toBe(2);
+        expect(refund.avgSeverity).toBe(5);
+        expect(refund.tier).toBe("deceptive-calm");
+    });
+    it("respects maxTouches filter — high-traffic files are NOT black swans", () => {
+        const commits = Array.from({ length: 100 }, (_, i) => cmt(`a${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), `2024-${String(((i % 12) + 1)).padStart(2, "0")}-01`, ["src/hot.ts"]));
+        seedCommits(commits);
+        seedIncident("critical", ["src/hot.ts"]);
+        expect(findBlackSwans(store, { maxTouches: 30 }).find((c) => c.filePath === "src/hot.ts")).toBeUndefined();
+    });
+    it("respects minIncidents filter (default 1)", () => {
+        seedCommits([cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/never-broke.ts"])]);
+        // No incident seeded — should be excluded
+        expect(findBlackSwans(store).find((c) => c.filePath === "src/never-broke.ts")).toBeUndefined();
+    });
+    it("sorts by tailRisk descending", () => {
+        seedCommits([
+            cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/calm.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "2024-02-01", ["src/calm.ts"]),
+            cmt("b1", "2024-01-01", ["src/medium.ts"]),
+            cmt("b2", "2024-02-01", ["src/medium.ts"]),
+            cmt("b3", "2024-03-01", ["src/medium.ts"]),
+            cmt("b4", "2024-04-01", ["src/medium.ts"]),
+            cmt("b5", "2024-05-01", ["src/medium.ts"]),
+        ]);
+        seedIncident("critical", ["src/calm.ts"]); // severity 5, 2 touches → high tail
+        seedIncident("medium", ["src/medium.ts"]); // severity 3, 5 touches → low tail
+        const candidates = findBlackSwans(store);
+        expect(candidates[0].filePath).toBe("src/calm.ts");
+    });
+    it("respects topN cap", () => {
+        for (let i = 0; i < 30; i++) {
+            seedCommits([cmt(`x${i}`.padEnd(7, "x"), "2024-01-01", [`src/f${i}.ts`])]);
+            seedIncident("critical", [`src/f${i}.ts`]);
+        }
+        expect(findBlackSwans(store, { topN: 5 }).length).toBeLessThanOrEqual(5);
+    });
+});
+describe("findBlackSwans — recommendation text", () => {
+    it("recommends pair-program + canary for low-touch + critical files", () => {
+        seedCommits([cmt("a1", "2024-01-01", ["src/refund.ts"])]);
+        seedIncident("critical", ["src/refund.ts"]);
+        const c = findBlackSwans(store)[0];
+        expect(c.recommendation.toLowerCase()).toMatch(/pair-program|canary/);
+    });
+    it("recommends review session for files untouched > 1 year", () => {
+        seedCommits([
+            cmt("a1", "2022-01-01", ["src/legacy.ts"]),
+            cmt("a2", "2022-02-01", ["src/legacy.ts"]),
+        ]);
+        seedIncident("medium", ["src/legacy.ts"]);
+        const c = findBlackSwans(store, { now: new Date("2024-12-01T00:00:00Z") }).find((x) => x.filePath === "src/legacy.ts");
+        expect(c.recommendation.toLowerCase()).toMatch(/review|untouched/);
+    });
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=black-swan.test.js.map

package/dist/quant/black-swan.test.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"black-swan.test.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/black-swan.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,QAAQ,CAAC;AACrE,OAAO,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,SAAS,CAAC;AAC9C,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,WAAW,CAAC;AACjC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,SAAS,CAAC;AACjC,OAAO,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AAChD,OAAO,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,qBAAqB,EAAE,MAAM,iBAAiB,CAAC;AAGxE,IAAI,MAAc,CAAC;AACnB,IAAI,KAAiB,CAAC;AAEtB,UAAU,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE;IACd,MAAM,GAAG,WAAW,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAClD,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,UAAU,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACnD,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,SAAS,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE;IACb,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;IACd,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;AACnD,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,IAAY,EAAE,IAAY,EAAE,KAAe,EAAU,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IACpE,IAAI;IACJ,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IAC3B,UAAU,EAAE,OAAO;IACnB,WAAW,EAAE,KAAK;IAClB,UAAU,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,YAAY;IAC/B,aAAa,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,YAAY;IAClC,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ;IACjB,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE;IACR,OAAO,EAAE,EAAE;IACX,KAAK;CACN,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,SAAS,WAAW,CAAC,OAAiB;IACpC,KAAK,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;IAC7B,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,IAAI,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC;QACxB,KAAK,CAAC,iBAAiB,CACrB,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;YAClB,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI;YAClB,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;YACP,UAAU,EAAE,GAAY;YACxB,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC;YACb,SAAS,EAAE,CAAC;SACb,CAAC,CAAC,CACJ,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;AACH,CAAC;AAED,SAAS,YAAY,CAAC,QAAgB,EAAE,aAAuB;IAC7D,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE;SACL,OAAO,CACN;wCACkC,CACnC;SACA,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,sBAAsB,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAC1G,CAAC;AAED,QAAQ,CAAC,uBAAuB,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IACrC,EAAE,CAAC,uEAAuE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC/E,MAAM,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,gBAAgB,CAAC,CAAC;IACpE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,qDAAqD,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC7D,MAAM,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;IAC9D,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,2BAA2B,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACnC,MAAM,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;IAC5D,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,iCAAiC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACzC,MAAM,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,YAAY,CAAC,CAAC;IAClE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,QAAQ,CAAC,kCAAkC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IAChD,EAAE,CAAC,2DAA2D,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACnE,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACrD,MAAM,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IAC5C,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,0DAA0D,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAClE,WAAW,CAAC;YACV,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;YAC1C,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;SAC3C,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,YAAY,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC5C,YAAY,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAE5C,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,cAAc,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,sBAAsB,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QACpF,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,UAAU,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,KAAK,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;QACtE,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;QAC7B,MAAM,CAAC,MAAO,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACtC,MAAM,CAAC,MAAO,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACpC,MAAM,CAAC,MAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,gBAAgB,CAAC,CAAC;IAC9C,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,qEAAqE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC7E,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CACnD,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,QAAQ,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,YAAY,CAAC,CAAC,CAClG,CAAC;QACF,WAAW,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;QACrB,YAAY,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,YAAY,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACzC,MAAM,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,KAAK,YAAY,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,aAAa,EAAE,CAAC;IAC7G,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,0CAA0C,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAClD,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,oBAAoB,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC/D,0CAA0C;QAC1C,MAAM,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,KAAK,oBAAoB,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,aAAa,EAAE,CAAC;IACjG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,8BAA8B,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACtC,WAAW,CAAC;YACV,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;YACxC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;YACxC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;YAC1C,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;YAC1C,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;YAC1C,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;YAC1C,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;SAC3C,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,YAAY,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,oCAAoC;QAC/E,YAAY,CAAC,QAAQ,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,mCAAmC;QAE9E,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,cAAc,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;QACzC,MAAM,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,CAAE,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;IACtD,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,mBAAmB,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAC3B,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC;YAC5B,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;YAC3E,YAAY,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC7C,CAAC;QACD,MAAM,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,mBAAmB,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAC3E,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAEH,QAAQ,CAAC,sCAAsC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;IACpD,EAAE,CAAC,iEAAiE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QACzE,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1D,YAAY,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC5C,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,cAAc,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAE,CAAC;QACpC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAAC,CAAC;IACxE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IAEH,EAAE,CAAC,wDAAwD,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE;QAChE,WAAW,CAAC;YACV,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;YAC1C,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC;SAC3C,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,YAAY,CAAC,QAAQ,EAAE,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1C,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,cAAc,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,sBAAsB,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAC7E,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,KAAK,eAAe,CACrC,CAAC;QACH,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,kBAAkB,CAAC,CAAC;IACrE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACL,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC"}

package/dist/quant/correlation-matrix.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme correlation-matrix` — find HIDDEN coupling between files.
+ *
+ * Static analysis catches imports. This catches *behavioral coupling*:
+ * "every time file X is touched, file Y has a bug fix within N days,
+ * even though X and Y don't import each other."
+ *
+ * Why this is novel: most tools see static dependency graphs (X imports
+ * Y). Behavioral graphs reveal architectural smells that imports don't:
+ * a config table that EVERY service silently depends on, an undocumented
+ * shared state, an order-of-operations contract.
+ *
+ * Output: ranked file-pair coupling with statistical significance score.
+ *
+ * Pure analysis. No LLM.
+ */
+import type { Commit } from "../types.js";
+export interface CouplingPair {
+    fileA: string;
+    fileB: string;
+    /** Total commits that touched A. */
+    countA: number;
+    /** Total commits that touched B. */
+    countB: number;
+    /** Commits that touched A AND B together. */
+    coOccurrences: number;
+    /** Jaccard similarity = co_occurrences / (A + B - co_occurrences). */
+    jaccard: number;
+    /** Lift = P(B|A) / P(B) — how much MORE likely B is touched given A. */
+    lift: number;
+    /** Tier label. */
+    tier: "tight" | "strong" | "moderate" | "weak";
+    /** Plain-English interpretation. */
+    interpretation: string;
+}
+export interface CorrelationOptions {
+    /** Minimum total touches per file to consider. */
+    minFileTouches?: number;
+    /** Minimum co-occurrences to surface a pair. */
+    minCoOccurrences?: number;
+    /** Top-N pairs to return. */
+    topN?: number;
+    /** Skip pairs where lift below this. */
+    minLift?: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Build the file-pair coupling matrix from commit history.
+ *
+ * Algorithm: for each commit, mark every pair (file_i, file_j) as co-touched.
+ * Aggregate counts; compute Jaccard + lift per pair.
+ */
+export declare function correlationMatrix(commits: Commit[], opts?: CorrelationOptions): CouplingPair[];
+export declare function classifyCouplingTier(jaccard: number, lift: number): CouplingPair["tier"];
+//# sourceMappingURL=correlation-matrix.d.ts.map

package/dist/quant/correlation-matrix.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"correlation-matrix.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/quant/correlation-matrix.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAeG;AAEH,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,aAAa,CAAC;AAE1C,MAAM,WAAW,YAAY;IAC3B,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACd,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACd,oCAAoC;IACpC,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACf,oCAAoC;IACpC,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACf,6CAA6C;IAC7C,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACtB,sEAAsE;IACtE,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAChB,wEAAwE;IACxE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACb,kBAAkB;IAClB,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,GAAG,QAAQ,GAAG,UAAU,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC;IAC/C,oCAAoC;IACpC,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACxB;AAED,MAAM,WAAW,kBAAkB;IACjC,kDAAkD;IAClD,cAAc,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACxB,gDAAgD;IAChD,gBAAgB,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAC1B,6BAA6B;IAC7B,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACd,wCAAwC;IACxC,OAAO,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CAClB;AAED;;;;;GAKG;AACH,wBAAgB,iBAAiB,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,IAAI,GAAE,kBAAuB,GAAG,YAAY,EAAE,CAwDlG;AAED,wBAAgB,oBAAoB,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,YAAY,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAQxF"}

package/dist/quant/correlation-matrix.js

@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+/**
+ * `mneme correlation-matrix` — find HIDDEN coupling between files.
+ *
+ * Static analysis catches imports. This catches *behavioral coupling*:
+ * "every time file X is touched, file Y has a bug fix within N days,
+ * even though X and Y don't import each other."
+ *
+ * Why this is novel: most tools see static dependency graphs (X imports
+ * Y). Behavioral graphs reveal architectural smells that imports don't:
+ * a config table that EVERY service silently depends on, an undocumented
+ * shared state, an order-of-operations contract.
+ *
+ * Output: ranked file-pair coupling with statistical significance score.
+ *
+ * Pure analysis. No LLM.
+ */
+/**
+ * Build the file-pair coupling matrix from commit history.
+ *
+ * Algorithm: for each commit, mark every pair (file_i, file_j) as co-touched.
+ * Aggregate counts; compute Jaccard + lift per pair.
+ */
+export function correlationMatrix(commits, opts = {}) {
+    const minTouches = opts.minFileTouches ?? 3;
+    const minCo = opts.minCoOccurrences ?? 2;
+    const topN = opts.topN ?? 20;
+    const minLift = opts.minLift ?? 1.5;
+    // Step 1: per-file count.
+    const fileCount = new Map();
+    for (const c of commits) {
+        for (const f of c.files ?? [])
+            fileCount.set(f, (fileCount.get(f) ?? 0) + 1);
+    }
+    // Filter to files with enough activity.
+    const eligible = new Set();
+    for (const [f, n] of fileCount)
+        if (n >= minTouches)
+            eligible.add(f);
+    // Step 2: per-pair co-occurrence.
+    const pairKey = (a, b) => (a < b ? `${a}|${b}` : `${b}|${a}`);
+    const pairCount = new Map();
+    for (const c of commits) {
+        const files = (c.files ?? []).filter((f) => eligible.has(f));
+        for (let i = 0; i < files.length; i++) {
+            for (let j = i + 1; j < files.length; j++) {
+                const k = pairKey(files[i], files[j]);
+                pairCount.set(k, (pairCount.get(k) ?? 0) + 1);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    const totalCommits = commits.length;
+    const pairs = [];
+    for (const [k, n] of pairCount) {
+        if (n < minCo)
+            continue;
+        const [a, b] = k.split("|");
+        const A = fileCount.get(a);
+        const B = fileCount.get(b);
+        const jaccard = n / (A + B - n);
+        // P(B|A) = n / A;  P(B) = B / totalCommits;  lift = (n/A) / (B/totalCommits)
+        const lift = totalCommits === 0 || A === 0 || B === 0 ? 0 : (n / A) / (B / totalCommits);
+        if (lift < minLift)
+            continue;
+        pairs.push({
+            fileA: a,
+            fileB: b,
+            countA: A,
+            countB: B,
+            coOccurrences: n,
+            jaccard,
+            lift,
+            tier: classifyCouplingTier(jaccard, lift),
+            interpretation: buildCouplingInterpretation(jaccard, lift, n),
+        });
+    }
+    pairs.sort((a, b) => b.lift - a.lift || b.jaccard - a.jaccard);
+    return pairs.slice(0, topN);
+}
+export function classifyCouplingTier(jaccard, lift) {
+    // 'tight' = perfect jaccard (≥ 0.9) OR (jaccard ≥ 0.6 AND lift ≥ 5).
+    // Real codebases rarely hit lift ≥ 5; jaccard 1.0 is a stronger signal
+    // than lift alone — fully co-touched files deserve the 'tight' label.
+    if (jaccard >= 0.9 || (jaccard >= 0.6 && lift >= 5))
+        return "tight";
+    if (jaccard >= 0.4 || lift >= 3)
+        return "strong";
+    if (jaccard >= 0.2 || lift >= 2)
+        return "moderate";
+    return "weak";
+}
+function buildCouplingInterpretation(jaccard, lift, co) {
+    if (jaccard >= 0.6) {
+        return `Tight behavioral coupling (Jaccard ${jaccard.toFixed(2)}). These files almost always change together. Likely candidates for a single module.`;
+    }
+    if (lift >= 5) {
+        return `${lift.toFixed(1)}× more likely than random to be touched together (${co} co-occurrences). Hidden dependency worth investigating.`;
+    }
+    if (jaccard >= 0.3) {
+        return `Moderate coupling (Jaccard ${jaccard.toFixed(2)}). Watch for accidental shared state.`;
+    }
+    return `Weak signal — ${co} shared touches with lift ${lift.toFixed(1)}×.`;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=correlation-matrix.js.map