@lucern/confidence 0.1.0-alpha.2

package/dist/v1/operations/dynamics/decay.js

@@ -0,0 +1,271 @@
+// src/v1/operations/subjectiveLogic/index.ts
+function opinion(belief, disbelief, uncertainty, baseRate = 0.5) {
+  const b = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, belief));
+  const d = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, disbelief));
+  const u = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, uncertainty));
+  const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));
+  const sum = b + d + u;
+  if (sum === 0) {
+    return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a };
+  }
+  return {
+    b: b / sum,
+    d: d / sum,
+    u: u / sum,
+    a
+  };
+}
+
+// src/v1/operations/dynamics/decay.ts
+var DECAY_TIERS = {
+  FRESH: {
+    maxAgeDays: 30,
+    weight: 1,
+    label: "fresh",
+    action: "Full confidence \u2014 recently validated",
+    rescoreInDays: 30
+  },
+  AGING: {
+    maxAgeDays: 90,
+    weight: 0.8,
+    label: "aging",
+    action: "Evidence refresh recommended",
+    rescoreInDays: 14
+  },
+  STALE: {
+    maxAgeDays: 180,
+    weight: 0.5,
+    label: "stale",
+    action: "Evidence update required before trusting",
+    rescoreInDays: 7
+  },
+  EXPIRED: {
+    maxAgeDays: Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,
+    weight: 0.2,
+    label: "expired",
+    action: "Full re-evaluation needed",
+    rescoreInDays: 0
+  }
+};
+var DEADLINE_URGENCY = {
+  DISTANT: {
+    minDaysToDeadline: 365,
+    urgencyMultiplier: 1,
+    label: "distant",
+    rescoreIntervalDays: 90,
+    action: "Quarterly confidence check"
+  },
+  APPROACHING: {
+    minDaysToDeadline: 180,
+    urgencyMultiplier: 0.9,
+    label: "approaching",
+    rescoreIntervalDays: 30,
+    action: "Monthly confidence check \u2014 conditions may be shifting"
+  },
+  NEAR: {
+    minDaysToDeadline: 90,
+    urgencyMultiplier: 0.75,
+    label: "near",
+    rescoreIntervalDays: 14,
+    action: "Biweekly rescore \u2014 deadline within 3 months"
+  },
+  IMMINENT: {
+    minDaysToDeadline: 30,
+    urgencyMultiplier: 0.6,
+    label: "imminent",
+    rescoreIntervalDays: 7,
+    action: "Weekly rescore \u2014 deadline within 1 month"
+  },
+  CRITICAL: {
+    minDaysToDeadline: 7,
+    urgencyMultiplier: 0.4,
+    label: "critical",
+    rescoreIntervalDays: 1,
+    action: "Daily rescore \u2014 deadline THIS WEEK"
+  },
+  OVERDUE: {
+    minDaysToDeadline: Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY,
+    urgencyMultiplier: 0.2,
+    label: "overdue",
+    rescoreIntervalDays: 0,
+    action: "OVERDUE \u2014 must validate or archive immediately"
+  }
+};
+function normalizeBeliefConfidence(confidence) {
+  if (typeof confidence !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(confidence)) {
+    return null;
+  }
+  if (confidence >= 0 && confidence <= 1) {
+    return confidence;
+  }
+  if (confidence > 1 && confidence <= 100) {
+    return confidence / 100;
+  }
+  return null;
+}
+function hasResolvedPredictionOutcome(predictionMeta) {
+  if (!predictionMeta || typeof predictionMeta !== "object") {
+    return false;
+  }
+  const outcome = predictionMeta.outcome;
+  return outcome === "confirmed" || outcome === "disconfirmed" || outcome === "partial" || outcome === "expired";
+}
+function resolveLifecycleBucket(args) {
+  if (normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) === 0 || normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) === 1 || hasResolvedPredictionOutcome(args.predictionMeta)) {
+    return "fact";
+  }
+  if (args.beliefStatus === "assumption" || args.beliefStatus === "hypothesis" || args.beliefStatus === "belief" || args.beliefStatus === "fact") {
+    if (normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) !== null && (args.beliefStatus === "assumption" || args.beliefStatus === "hypothesis")) {
+      return "belief";
+    }
+    return args.beliefStatus;
+  }
+  return "assumption";
+}
+function lifecycleMultiplier(status) {
+  if (status === "assumption") {
+    return 0.65;
+  }
+  if (status === "hypothesis") {
+    return 0.8;
+  }
+  return 1;
+}
+function computeBaseDecay(lastScoredAt) {
+  const ageDays = (Date.now() - lastScoredAt) / (1e3 * 60 * 60 * 24);
+  let tier = DECAY_TIERS.EXPIRED;
+  if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.FRESH.maxAgeDays) {
+    tier = DECAY_TIERS.FRESH;
+  } else if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.AGING.maxAgeDays) {
+    tier = DECAY_TIERS.AGING;
+  } else if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.STALE.maxAgeDays) {
+    tier = DECAY_TIERS.STALE;
+  }
+  return { ageDays, tier, weight: tier.weight };
+}
+function computeDeadlineUrgency(expectedBy) {
+  if (!expectedBy) {
+    return null;
+  }
+  const daysToDeadline = (expectedBy - Date.now()) / (1e3 * 60 * 60 * 24);
+  let urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.DISTANT;
+  if (daysToDeadline < 0) {
+    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.OVERDUE;
+  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 7) {
+    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.CRITICAL;
+  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 30) {
+    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.IMMINENT;
+  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 90) {
+    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.NEAR;
+  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 180) {
+    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.APPROACHING;
+  }
+  return {
+    daysToDeadline: Math.round(daysToDeadline),
+    urgencyTier,
+    urgencyMultiplier: urgencyTier.urgencyMultiplier,
+    isOverdue: daysToDeadline < 0
+  };
+}
+function computeEffectiveDecay(lastScoredAt, expectedBy, beliefStatus) {
+  const base = computeBaseDecay(lastScoredAt);
+  const urgency = computeDeadlineUrgency(expectedBy);
+  const effectiveWeight = (urgency ? base.weight * urgency.urgencyMultiplier : base.weight) * lifecycleMultiplier(beliefStatus);
+  const urgencyRescoreDays = urgency?.urgencyTier.rescoreIntervalDays ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY;
+  const rescoreInDays = Math.min(base.tier.rescoreInDays, urgencyRescoreDays);
+  const rescoreByDate = lastScoredAt + rescoreInDays * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1e3;
+  let action = base.tier.action;
+  if (urgency && urgency.urgencyTier.label !== "distant") {
+    action = `${urgency.urgencyTier.action}. ${base.tier.action}`;
+  }
+  return {
+    ageDays: base.ageDays,
+    baseTier: base.tier,
+    baseWeight: base.weight,
+    urgency,
+    effectiveWeight: Math.max(0, Math.min(1, effectiveWeight)),
+    rescoreByDate,
+    rescoreInDays,
+    action
+  };
+}
+function getRescoringSchedule(opts) {
+  const lifecycleStatus = resolveLifecycleBucket({
+    beliefStatus: opts.beliefStatus,
+    confidence: opts.confidence,
+    predictionMeta: opts.predictionMeta
+  });
+  const decayState = computeEffectiveDecay(
+    opts.lastScoredAt,
+    opts.expectedBy,
+    lifecycleStatus
+  );
+  const daysUntilRescore = (decayState.rescoreByDate - Date.now()) / (1e3 * 60 * 60 * 24);
+  const isOverdue = daysUntilRescore < 0;
+  let priority;
+  let reason;
+  if (isOverdue && lifecycleStatus === "assumption") {
+    priority = "critical";
+    reason = `Untested assumption is stale (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d) \u2014 validate or supersede`;
+  } else if (isOverdue && lifecycleStatus === "hypothesis" || lifecycleStatus === "hypothesis" && daysUntilRescore < 7) {
+    priority = "high";
+    reason = `Hypothesis aging without validation (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d) \u2014 run/finish sprint testing`;
+  } else if (decayState.urgency?.isOverdue) {
+    priority = "critical";
+    reason = `Prediction deadline passed ${Math.abs(decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline)}d ago \u2014 validate or archive`;
+  } else if (isOverdue && decayState.baseTier.label === "expired") {
+    priority = "critical";
+    reason = `Not scored in ${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d \u2014 confidence severely degraded`;
+  } else if (isOverdue && decayState.baseTier.label === "stale") {
+    priority = "high";
+    reason = `Stale (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d since scoring) \u2014 evidence update required`;
+  } else if (decayState.urgency && decayState.urgency.urgencyTier.label === "critical") {
+    priority = "critical";
+    reason = `Deadline in ${decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline}d \u2014 needs immediate rescoring`;
+  } else if (decayState.urgency && decayState.urgency.urgencyTier.label === "imminent") {
+    priority = "high";
+    reason = `Deadline in ${decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline}d \u2014 weekly rescoring required`;
+  } else if (isOverdue) {
+    priority = "high";
+    reason = `Rescore overdue by ${Math.abs(Math.round(daysUntilRescore))}d`;
+  } else if (opts.temporalNature === "forecast" && daysUntilRescore < 7) {
+    priority = "medium";
+    reason = `Forecast belief \u2014 next rescore due in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;
+  } else if (daysUntilRescore < 14) {
+    priority = "medium";
+    reason = `Rescore due in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;
+  } else {
+    priority = "low";
+    reason = `On schedule \u2014 next rescore in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;
+  }
+  if ((opts.confidence ?? 0) >= 0.8 && decayState.baseTier.label !== "fresh" && priority === "medium") {
+    priority = "high";
+    reason = `High-confidence belief (${((opts.confidence ?? 0) * 100).toFixed(0)}%) aging without rescore \u2014 ${reason}`;
+  }
+  return {
+    nextRescoreBy: decayState.rescoreByDate,
+    daysUntilRescore: Math.round(daysUntilRescore),
+    isOverdue,
+    priority,
+    reason,
+    decay: decayState
+  };
+}
+function decay(current, daysSinceLastUpdate, halfLifeDays = 90) {
+  if (daysSinceLastUpdate <= 0) {
+    return current;
+  }
+  const decayFactor = Math.pow(0.5, daysSinceLastUpdate / halfLifeDays);
+  const certainty = current.b + current.d;
+  const lostCertainty = certainty - certainty * decayFactor;
+  return opinion(
+    current.b * decayFactor,
+    current.d * decayFactor,
+    current.u + lostCertainty,
+    current.a
+  );
+}
+
+export { DEADLINE_URGENCY, DECAY_TIERS, computeBaseDecay, computeDeadlineUrgency, computeEffectiveDecay, decay, getRescoringSchedule };
+//# sourceMappingURL=decay.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=decay.js.map

package/dist/v1/operations/dynamics/decay.js.map

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type { Opinion } from \"../../types\";\n\nexport function opinion(\n  belief: number,\n  disbelief: number,\n  uncertainty: number,\n  baseRate: number = 0.5\n): Opinion {\n  const b = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, belief));\n  const d = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, disbelief));\n  const u = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, uncertainty));\n  const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n  const sum = b + d + u;\n\n  if (sum === 0) {\n    return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a };\n  }\n\n  return {\n    b: b / sum,\n    d: d / sum,\n    u: u / sum,\n    a,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function vacuous(baseRate: number = 0.5): Opinion {\n  return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a: baseRate };\n}\n\nexport function dogmatic(probability: number, baseRate: number = 0.5): Opinion {\n  const p = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, probability));\n  return { b: p, d: 1 - p, u: 0, a: baseRate };\n}\n\nexport function project(o: Opinion): number {\n  return o.b + o.a * o.u;\n}\n\nexport function confidenceLevel(o: Opinion): \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\" {\n  const projected = project(o);\n  if (o.u > 0.5) {\n    return \"low\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.8 && o.u < 0.2) {\n    return \"high\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.6) {\n    return \"medium\";\n  }\n  return \"low\";\n}\n\nexport function cumulativeFusion(left: Opinion, right: Opinion): Opinion {\n  if (left.u === 0 && right.u === 0) {\n    return opinion(\n      (left.b + right.b) / 2,\n      (left.d + right.d) / 2,\n      0,\n      (left.a + right.a) / 2\n    );\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u - left.u * right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous((left.a + right.a) / 2);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (left.u * right.u) / k,\n    (left.a + right.a) / 2\n  );\n}\n\nexport function averagingFusion(left: Opinion, right: Opinion): Opinion {\n  if (left.u === 0 && right.u === 0) {\n    return opinion(\n      (left.b + right.b) / 2,\n      (left.d + right.d) / 2,\n      0,\n      (left.a + right.a) / 2\n    );\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous((left.a + right.a) / 2);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (2 * left.u * right.u) / k,\n    (left.a + right.a) / 2\n  );\n}\n\nexport function trustDiscount(sourceOpinion: Opinion, trust: number): Opinion {\n  const weight = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, Math.abs(trust)));\n  return opinion(\n    weight * sourceOpinion.b,\n    weight * sourceOpinion.d,\n    1 - weight * (sourceOpinion.b + sourceOpinion.d),\n    sourceOpinion.a\n  );\n}\n\nconst EPSILON = 1e-9;\n\nfunction childBaseRateFallback(\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number | undefined\n): number {\n  if (fallbackBaseRate !== undefined) {\n    return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, fallbackBaseRate));\n  }\n\n  if (Math.abs(ifTrue.a - ifFalse.a) <= EPSILON) {\n    return ifTrue.a;\n  }\n\n  return (ifTrue.a + ifFalse.a) / 2;\n}\n\nfunction computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n  opinionA: Opinion,\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number\n): number {\n  const denominator =\n    1 - opinionA.a * ifTrue.u - (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.u;\n\n  if (ifTrue.u + ifFalse.u < 2 - EPSILON && Math.abs(denominator) > EPSILON) {\n    const baseRate =\n      (opinionA.a * ifTrue.b + (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.b) / denominator;\n    if (baseRate >= -EPSILON && baseRate <= 1 + EPSILON) {\n      return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n    }\n  }\n\n  return fallbackBaseRate;\n}\n\nfunction safeCorrectionTerm(\n  numerator: number,\n  denominator: number\n): number | undefined {\n  if (Math.abs(denominator) <= EPSILON) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  const value = numerator / denominator;\n  if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  return Math.max(0, value);\n}\n\nexport function conditionalDeduction(\n  opinionA: Opinion,\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate?: number\n): Opinion {\n  const fallbackChildBaseRate = childBaseRateFallback(\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackBaseRate\n  );\n  const childBaseRate = computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n    opinionA,\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackChildBaseRate\n  );\n  const projectedAntecedent = project(opinionA);\n  const projectedAntecedentComplement = 1 - projectedAntecedent;\n  const intermediateBelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.b +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.b +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.b * opinionA.a + ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateDisbelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.d +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.d +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.d * opinionA.a + ifFalse.d * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateUncertainty =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.u +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.u +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedVacuousDeduction =\n    ifTrue.b * opinionA.a +\n    ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a) +\n    childBaseRate *\n      (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedConditionalA =\n    ifTrue.b + childBaseRate * (1 - ifTrue.b - ifTrue.d);\n  let correction = 0;\n\n  if (\n    (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d > ifFalse.d) ||\n    (ifTrue.b <= ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d)\n  ) {\n    correction = 0;\n  } else if (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d) {\n    const beliefGap = ifTrue.b - ifFalse.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifFalse.d - ifTrue.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) * beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  } else {\n    const beliefGap = ifFalse.b - ifTrue.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifTrue.d - ifFalse.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) *\n            beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    intermediateBelief - childBaseRate * correction,\n    intermediateDisbelief - (1 - childBaseRate) * correction,\n    intermediateUncertainty + correction,\n    childBaseRate\n  );\n}\n\n/**\n * Abductive inference over a conditional.\n * Given an opinion on Y and conditionals P(Y|X), P(Y|~X), infer an opinion on X.\n */\nexport function conditionalAbduction(\n  opinionY: Opinion,\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  baseRateX: number\n): Opinion {\n  const priorX = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRateX));\n  const probabilityY = project(opinionY);\n  const probabilityGivenTrue = project(ifTrue);\n  const probabilityGivenFalse = project(ifFalse);\n\n  const posteriorIfYDenominator =\n    probabilityGivenTrue * priorX +\n    probabilityGivenFalse * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfY =\n    posteriorIfYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : (probabilityGivenTrue * priorX) / posteriorIfYDenominator;\n\n  const posteriorIfNotYDenominator =\n    (1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX +\n    (1 - probabilityGivenFalse) * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfNotY =\n    posteriorIfNotYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : ((1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX) / posteriorIfNotYDenominator;\n\n  const projectedX =\n    probabilityY * posteriorIfY + (1 - probabilityY) * posteriorIfNotY;\n  const uncertainty = Math.max(\n    opinionY.u * 0.5,\n    probabilityY * ifTrue.u + (1 - probabilityY) * ifFalse.u\n  );\n\n  return opinion(\n    projectedX * (1 - uncertainty),\n    (1 - projectedX) * (1 - uncertainty),\n    uncertainty,\n    priorX\n  );\n}\n\nexport function negate(o: Opinion): Opinion {\n  return { b: o.d, d: o.b, u: o.u, a: 1 - o.a };\n}\n\nexport function constraintFusion(\n  left: Opinion,\n  right: Opinion,\n  mode: \"pressure\" | \"redistribute\" = \"pressure\"\n): { o1: Opinion; o2: Opinion } {\n  if (mode === \"redistribute\") {\n    const leftProjected = project(left);\n    const rightProjected = project(right);\n    const total = leftProjected + rightProjected;\n\n    if (total <= 1) {\n      return { o1: left, o2: right };\n    }\n\n    const scale = 1 / total;\n    return {\n      o1: opinion(\n        left.b * scale,\n        left.d + left.b * (1 - scale),\n        left.u,\n        left.a\n      ),\n      o2: opinion(\n        right.b * scale,\n        right.d + right.b * (1 - scale),\n        right.u,\n        right.a\n      ),\n    };\n  }\n\n  const pressureLeft = right.b * 0.5;\n  const pressureRight = left.b * 0.5;\n\n  return {\n    o1: opinion(\n      left.b - pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.d + pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.u,\n      left.a\n    ),\n    o2: opinion(\n      right.b - pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.d + pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.u,\n      right.a\n    ),\n  };\n}\n\nexport function evidenceBalance(o: Opinion): number {\n  const total = o.b + o.d;\n  if (total === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  return (o.b - o.d) / total;\n}\n\nexport function areTensioned(left: Opinion, right: Opinion): boolean {\n  return (\n    project(left) > 0.5 &&\n    project(right) > 0.5 &&\n    (left.d > 0.2 || right.d > 0.2)\n  );\n}\n\nexport function informationGain(o: Opinion): number {\n  if (o.u === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  if (o.u === 1) {\n    return 1;\n  }\n  return o.u * (1 - Math.abs(o.b - o.d));\n}\n","import type {\n  BeliefLifecycleBucket,\n  DeadlineUrgency,\n  DeadlineUrgencyTier,\n  DecayTier,\n  EffectiveDecay,\n  Opinion,\n  RescoringSchedule,\n} from \"../../types\";\nimport { opinion } from \"../subjectiveLogic\";\n\nexport const DECAY_TIERS: Record<string, DecayTier> = {\n  FRESH: {\n    maxAgeDays: 30,\n    weight: 1,\n    label: \"fresh\",\n    action: \"Full confidence — recently validated\",\n    rescoreInDays: 30,\n  },\n  AGING: {\n    maxAgeDays: 90,\n    weight: 0.8,\n    label: \"aging\",\n    action: \"Evidence refresh recommended\",\n    rescoreInDays: 14,\n  },\n  STALE: {\n    maxAgeDays: 180,\n    weight: 0.5,\n    label: \"stale\",\n    action: \"Evidence update required before trusting\",\n    rescoreInDays: 7,\n  },\n  EXPIRED: {\n    maxAgeDays: Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n    weight: 0.2,\n    label: \"expired\",\n    action: \"Full re-evaluation needed\",\n    rescoreInDays: 0,\n  },\n};\n\nexport const DEADLINE_URGENCY: Record<string, DeadlineUrgencyTier> = {\n  DISTANT: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 365,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 1,\n    label: \"distant\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 90,\n    action: \"Quarterly confidence check\",\n  },\n  APPROACHING: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 180,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.9,\n    label: \"approaching\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 30,\n    action: \"Monthly confidence check — conditions may be shifting\",\n  },\n  NEAR: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 90,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.75,\n    label: \"near\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 14,\n    action: \"Biweekly rescore — deadline within 3 months\",\n  },\n  IMMINENT: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 30,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.6,\n    label: \"imminent\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 7,\n    action: \"Weekly rescore — deadline within 1 month\",\n  },\n  CRITICAL: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 7,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.4,\n    label: \"critical\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 1,\n    action: \"Daily rescore — deadline THIS WEEK\",\n  },\n  OVERDUE: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.2,\n    label: \"overdue\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 0,\n    action: \"OVERDUE — must validate or archive immediately\",\n  },\n};\n\nfunction normalizeBeliefConfidence(confidence: unknown): number | null {\n  if (typeof confidence !== \"number\" || !Number.isFinite(confidence)) {\n    return null;\n  }\n  if (confidence >= 0 && confidence <= 1) {\n    return confidence;\n  }\n  if (confidence > 1 && confidence <= 100) {\n    return confidence / 100;\n  }\n  return null;\n}\n\nfunction hasResolvedPredictionOutcome(predictionMeta: unknown): boolean {\n  if (!predictionMeta || typeof predictionMeta !== \"object\") {\n    return false;\n  }\n\n  const outcome = (predictionMeta as { outcome?: unknown }).outcome;\n  return (\n    outcome === \"confirmed\" ||\n    outcome === \"disconfirmed\" ||\n    outcome === \"partial\" ||\n    outcome === \"expired\"\n  );\n}\n\nfunction resolveLifecycleBucket(args: {\n  beliefStatus?: string | null;\n  confidence?: unknown;\n  predictionMeta?: unknown;\n}): BeliefLifecycleBucket {\n  if (\n    normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) === 0 ||\n    normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) === 1 ||\n    hasResolvedPredictionOutcome(args.predictionMeta)\n  ) {\n    return \"fact\";\n  }\n\n  if (\n    args.beliefStatus === \"assumption\" ||\n    args.beliefStatus === \"hypothesis\" ||\n    args.beliefStatus === \"belief\" ||\n    args.beliefStatus === \"fact\"\n  ) {\n    if (\n      normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) !== null &&\n      (args.beliefStatus === \"assumption\" || args.beliefStatus === \"hypothesis\")\n    ) {\n      return \"belief\";\n    }\n    return args.beliefStatus;\n  }\n\n  return \"assumption\";\n}\n\nfunction lifecycleMultiplier(status: BeliefLifecycleBucket | string | null | undefined) {\n  if (status === \"assumption\") {\n    return 0.65;\n  }\n  if (status === \"hypothesis\") {\n    return 0.8;\n  }\n  return 1;\n}\n\nexport function computeBaseDecay(lastScoredAt: number): {\n  ageDays: number;\n  tier: DecayTier;\n  weight: number;\n} {\n  const ageDays = (Date.now() - lastScoredAt) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);\n  let tier = DECAY_TIERS.EXPIRED;\n\n  if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.FRESH.maxAgeDays) {\n    tier = DECAY_TIERS.FRESH;\n  } else if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.AGING.maxAgeDays) {\n    tier = DECAY_TIERS.AGING;\n  } else if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.STALE.maxAgeDays) {\n    tier = DECAY_TIERS.STALE;\n  }\n\n  return { ageDays, tier, weight: tier.weight };\n}\n\nexport function computeDeadlineUrgency(\n  expectedBy: number | null | undefined\n): DeadlineUrgency {\n  if (!expectedBy) {\n    return null;\n  }\n\n  const daysToDeadline = (expectedBy - Date.now()) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);\n  let urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.DISTANT;\n\n  if (daysToDeadline < 0) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.OVERDUE;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 7) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.CRITICAL;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 30) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.IMMINENT;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 90) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.NEAR;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 180) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.APPROACHING;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    daysToDeadline: Math.round(daysToDeadline),\n    urgencyTier,\n    urgencyMultiplier: urgencyTier.urgencyMultiplier,\n    isOverdue: daysToDeadline < 0,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function computeEffectiveDecay(\n  lastScoredAt: number,\n  expectedBy?: number | null,\n  beliefStatus?: BeliefLifecycleBucket | string | null\n): EffectiveDecay {\n  const base = computeBaseDecay(lastScoredAt);\n  const urgency = computeDeadlineUrgency(expectedBy);\n  const effectiveWeight =\n    (urgency ? base.weight * urgency.urgencyMultiplier : base.weight) *\n    lifecycleMultiplier(beliefStatus);\n\n  const urgencyRescoreDays =\n    urgency?.urgencyTier.rescoreIntervalDays ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY;\n  const rescoreInDays = Math.min(base.tier.rescoreInDays, urgencyRescoreDays);\n  const rescoreByDate = lastScoredAt + rescoreInDays * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;\n\n  let action = base.tier.action;\n  if (urgency && urgency.urgencyTier.label !== \"distant\") {\n    action = `${urgency.urgencyTier.action}. ${base.tier.action}`;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    ageDays: base.ageDays,\n    baseTier: base.tier,\n    baseWeight: base.weight,\n    urgency,\n    effectiveWeight: Math.max(0, Math.min(1, effectiveWeight)),\n    rescoreByDate,\n    rescoreInDays,\n    action,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function getRescoringSchedule(opts: {\n  lastScoredAt: number;\n  temporalNature?: \"factual\" | \"forecast\" | \"unknown\" | null;\n  expectedBy?: number | null;\n  predictionMeta?: { expectedBy?: number; outcome?: unknown } | null;\n  confidence?: number;\n  beliefStatus?: string | null;\n}): RescoringSchedule {\n  const lifecycleStatus = resolveLifecycleBucket({\n    beliefStatus: opts.beliefStatus,\n    confidence: opts.confidence,\n    predictionMeta: opts.predictionMeta,\n  });\n\n  const decayState = computeEffectiveDecay(\n    opts.lastScoredAt,\n    opts.expectedBy,\n    lifecycleStatus\n  );\n  const daysUntilRescore =\n    (decayState.rescoreByDate - Date.now()) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);\n  const isOverdue = daysUntilRescore < 0;\n\n  let priority: RescoringSchedule[\"priority\"];\n  let reason: string;\n\n  if (isOverdue && lifecycleStatus === \"assumption\") {\n    priority = \"critical\";\n    reason = `Untested assumption is stale (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d) — validate or supersede`;\n  } else if (\n    (isOverdue && lifecycleStatus === \"hypothesis\") ||\n    (lifecycleStatus === \"hypothesis\" && daysUntilRescore < 7)\n  ) {\n    priority = \"high\";\n    reason = `Hypothesis aging without validation (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d) — run/finish sprint testing`;\n  } else if (decayState.urgency?.isOverdue) {\n    priority = \"critical\";\n    reason = `Prediction deadline passed ${Math.abs(decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline)}d ago — validate or archive`;\n  } else if (isOverdue && decayState.baseTier.label === \"expired\") {\n    priority = \"critical\";\n    reason = `Not scored in ${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d — confidence severely degraded`;\n  } else if (isOverdue && decayState.baseTier.label === \"stale\") {\n    priority = \"high\";\n    reason = `Stale (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d since scoring) — evidence update required`;\n  } else if (\n    decayState.urgency &&\n    decayState.urgency.urgencyTier.label === \"critical\"\n  ) {\n    priority = \"critical\";\n    reason = `Deadline in ${decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline}d — needs immediate rescoring`;\n  } else if (\n    decayState.urgency &&\n    decayState.urgency.urgencyTier.label === \"imminent\"\n  ) {\n    priority = \"high\";\n    reason = `Deadline in ${decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline}d — weekly rescoring required`;\n  } else if (isOverdue) {\n    priority = \"high\";\n    reason = `Rescore overdue by ${Math.abs(Math.round(daysUntilRescore))}d`;\n  } else if (opts.temporalNature === \"forecast\" && daysUntilRescore < 7) {\n    priority = \"medium\";\n    reason = `Forecast belief — next rescore due in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;\n  } else if (daysUntilRescore < 14) {\n    priority = \"medium\";\n    reason = `Rescore due in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;\n  } else {\n    priority = \"low\";\n    reason = `On schedule — next rescore in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;\n  }\n\n  if (\n    (opts.confidence ?? 0) >= 0.8 &&\n    decayState.baseTier.label !== \"fresh\" &&\n    priority === \"medium\"\n  ) {\n    priority = \"high\";\n    reason = `High-confidence belief (${((opts.confidence ?? 0) * 100).toFixed(0)}%) aging without rescore — ${reason}`;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    nextRescoreBy: decayState.rescoreByDate,\n    daysUntilRescore: Math.round(daysUntilRescore),\n    isOverdue,\n    priority,\n    reason,\n    decay: decayState,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function decay(\n  current: Opinion,\n  daysSinceLastUpdate: number,\n  halfLifeDays: number = 90\n): Opinion {\n  if (daysSinceLastUpdate <= 0) {\n    return current;\n  }\n\n  const decayFactor = Math.pow(0.5, daysSinceLastUpdate / halfLifeDays);\n  const certainty = current.b + current.d;\n  const lostCertainty = certainty - certainty * decayFactor;\n\n  return opinion(\n    current.b * decayFactor,\n    current.d * decayFactor,\n    current.u + lostCertainty,\n    current.a\n  );\n}\n"]}

package/dist/v1/operations/dynamics/defeat.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+import { Opinion, EdgeMetadata, PropagationResult } from '../../types.js';
+
+declare function applyNegativeSupport(source: Opinion, target: Opinion, weight: number, metadata?: EdgeMetadata): PropagationResult;
+declare function applyNegativeEvidence(source: Opinion, target: Opinion, weight: number): PropagationResult;
+
+export { applyNegativeEvidence, applyNegativeSupport };

package/dist/v1/operations/dynamics/defeat.js

@@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
+// src/v1/operations/subjectiveLogic/index.ts
+function opinion(belief, disbelief, uncertainty, baseRate = 0.5) {
+  const b = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, belief));
+  const d = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, disbelief));
+  const u = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, uncertainty));
+  const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));
+  const sum = b + d + u;
+  if (sum === 0) {
+    return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a };
+  }
+  return {
+    b: b / sum,
+    d: d / sum,
+    u: u / sum,
+    a
+  };
+}
+function vacuous(baseRate = 0.5) {
+  return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a: baseRate };
+}
+function project(o) {
+  return o.b + o.a * o.u;
+}
+function cumulativeFusion(left, right) {
+  if (left.u === 0 && right.u === 0) {
+    return opinion(
+      (left.b + right.b) / 2,
+      (left.d + right.d) / 2,
+      0,
+      (left.a + right.a) / 2
+    );
+  }
+  const k = left.u + right.u - left.u * right.u;
+  if (k === 0) {
+    return vacuous((left.a + right.a) / 2);
+  }
+  return opinion(
+    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,
+    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,
+    left.u * right.u / k,
+    (left.a + right.a) / 2
+  );
+}
+function trustDiscount(sourceOpinion, trust) {
+  const weight = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, Math.abs(trust)));
+  return opinion(
+    weight * sourceOpinion.b,
+    weight * sourceOpinion.d,
+    1 - weight * (sourceOpinion.b + sourceOpinion.d),
+    sourceOpinion.a
+  );
+}
+function negate(o) {
+  return { b: o.d, d: o.b, u: o.u, a: 1 - o.a };
+}
+function constraintFusion(left, right, mode = "pressure") {
+  if (mode === "redistribute") {
+    const leftProjected = project(left);
+    const rightProjected = project(right);
+    const total = leftProjected + rightProjected;
+    if (total <= 1) {
+      return { o1: left, o2: right };
+    }
+    const scale = 1 / total;
+    return {
+      o1: opinion(
+        left.b * scale,
+        left.d + left.b * (1 - scale),
+        left.u,
+        left.a
+      ),
+      o2: opinion(
+        right.b * scale,
+        right.d + right.b * (1 - scale),
+        right.u,
+        right.a
+      )
+    };
+  }
+  const pressureLeft = right.b * 0.5;
+  const pressureRight = left.b * 0.5;
+  return {
+    o1: opinion(
+      left.b - pressureLeft * 0.3,
+      left.d + pressureLeft * 0.3,
+      left.u,
+      left.a
+    ),
+    o2: opinion(
+      right.b - pressureRight * 0.3,
+      right.d + pressureRight * 0.3,
+      right.u,
+      right.a
+    )
+  };
+}
+
+// src/v1/operations/dynamics/defeat.ts
+function applyNegativeSupport(source, target, weight, metadata = {}) {
+  if (metadata.constraint === "xor") {
+    const result = constraintFusion(
+      source,
+      target,
+      metadata.normalization ?? "pressure"
+    );
+    return {
+      opinion: result.o2,
+      operator: "constraint_fusion",
+      rationale: `XOR constraint: source belief at ${project(source).toFixed(
+        2
+      )} pressures target`
+    };
+  }
+  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(source), Math.abs(weight));
+  return {
+    opinion: cumulativeFusion(target, discounted),
+    operator: "cumulative_fusion",
+    rationale: `Contradicting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(
+      2
+    )}) from source at ${project(source).toFixed(2)}`
+  };
+}
+function applyNegativeEvidence(source, target, weight) {
+  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(source), Math.abs(weight));
+  return {
+    opinion: cumulativeFusion(target, discounted),
+    operator: "cumulative_fusion",
+    rationale: `Contradicting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(2)})`
+  };
+}
+
+export { applyNegativeEvidence, applyNegativeSupport };
+//# sourceMappingURL=defeat.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=defeat.js.map

package/dist/v1/operations/dynamics/defeat.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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type { Opinion } from \"../../types\";\n\nexport function opinion(\n  belief: number,\n  disbelief: number,\n  uncertainty: number,\n  baseRate: number = 0.5\n): Opinion {\n  const b = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, belief));\n  const d = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, disbelief));\n  const u = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, uncertainty));\n  const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n  const sum = b + d + u;\n\n  if (sum === 0) {\n    return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a };\n  }\n\n  return {\n    b: b / sum,\n    d: d / sum,\n    u: u / sum,\n    a,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function vacuous(baseRate: number = 0.5): Opinion {\n  return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a: baseRate };\n}\n\nexport function dogmatic(probability: number, baseRate: number = 0.5): Opinion {\n  const p = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, probability));\n  return { b: p, d: 1 - p, u: 0, a: baseRate };\n}\n\nexport function project(o: Opinion): number {\n  return o.b + o.a * o.u;\n}\n\nexport function confidenceLevel(o: Opinion): \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\" {\n  const projected = project(o);\n  if (o.u > 0.5) {\n    return \"low\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.8 && o.u < 0.2) {\n    return \"high\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.6) {\n    return \"medium\";\n  }\n  return \"low\";\n}\n\nexport function cumulativeFusion(left: Opinion, right: Opinion): Opinion {\n  if (left.u === 0 && right.u === 0) {\n    return opinion(\n      (left.b + right.b) / 2,\n      (left.d + right.d) / 2,\n      0,\n      (left.a + right.a) / 2\n    );\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u - left.u * right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous((left.a + right.a) / 2);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (left.u * right.u) / k,\n    (left.a + right.a) / 2\n  );\n}\n\nexport function averagingFusion(left: Opinion, right: Opinion): Opinion {\n  if (left.u === 0 && right.u === 0) {\n    return opinion(\n      (left.b + right.b) / 2,\n      (left.d + right.d) / 2,\n      0,\n      (left.a + right.a) / 2\n    );\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous((left.a + right.a) / 2);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (2 * left.u * right.u) / k,\n    (left.a + right.a) / 2\n  );\n}\n\nexport function trustDiscount(sourceOpinion: Opinion, trust: number): Opinion {\n  const weight = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, Math.abs(trust)));\n  return opinion(\n    weight * sourceOpinion.b,\n    weight * sourceOpinion.d,\n    1 - weight * (sourceOpinion.b + sourceOpinion.d),\n    sourceOpinion.a\n  );\n}\n\nconst EPSILON = 1e-9;\n\nfunction childBaseRateFallback(\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number | undefined\n): number {\n  if (fallbackBaseRate !== undefined) {\n    return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, fallbackBaseRate));\n  }\n\n  if (Math.abs(ifTrue.a - ifFalse.a) <= EPSILON) {\n    return ifTrue.a;\n  }\n\n  return (ifTrue.a + ifFalse.a) / 2;\n}\n\nfunction computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n  opinionA: Opinion,\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number\n): number {\n  const denominator =\n    1 - opinionA.a * ifTrue.u - (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.u;\n\n  if (ifTrue.u + ifFalse.u < 2 - EPSILON && Math.abs(denominator) > EPSILON) {\n    const baseRate =\n      (opinionA.a * ifTrue.b + (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.b) / denominator;\n    if (baseRate >= -EPSILON && baseRate <= 1 + EPSILON) {\n      return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n    }\n  }\n\n  return fallbackBaseRate;\n}\n\nfunction safeCorrectionTerm(\n  numerator: number,\n  denominator: number\n): number | undefined {\n  if (Math.abs(denominator) <= EPSILON) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  const value = numerator / denominator;\n  if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  return Math.max(0, value);\n}\n\nexport function conditionalDeduction(\n  opinionA: Opinion,\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate?: number\n): Opinion {\n  const fallbackChildBaseRate = childBaseRateFallback(\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackBaseRate\n  );\n  const childBaseRate = computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n    opinionA,\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackChildBaseRate\n  );\n  const projectedAntecedent = project(opinionA);\n  const projectedAntecedentComplement = 1 - projectedAntecedent;\n  const intermediateBelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.b +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.b +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.b * opinionA.a + ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateDisbelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.d +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.d +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.d * opinionA.a + ifFalse.d * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateUncertainty =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.u +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.u +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedVacuousDeduction =\n    ifTrue.b * opinionA.a +\n    ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a) +\n    childBaseRate *\n      (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedConditionalA =\n    ifTrue.b + childBaseRate * (1 - ifTrue.b - ifTrue.d);\n  let correction = 0;\n\n  if (\n    (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d > ifFalse.d) ||\n    (ifTrue.b <= ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d)\n  ) {\n    correction = 0;\n  } else if (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d) {\n    const beliefGap = ifTrue.b - ifFalse.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifFalse.d - ifTrue.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) * beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  } else {\n    const beliefGap = ifFalse.b - ifTrue.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifTrue.d - ifFalse.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) *\n            beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    intermediateBelief - childBaseRate * correction,\n    intermediateDisbelief - (1 - childBaseRate) * correction,\n    intermediateUncertainty + correction,\n    childBaseRate\n  );\n}\n\n/**\n * Abductive inference over a conditional.\n * Given an opinion on Y and conditionals P(Y|X), P(Y|~X), infer an opinion on X.\n */\nexport function conditionalAbduction(\n  opinionY: Opinion,\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  baseRateX: number\n): Opinion {\n  const priorX = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRateX));\n  const probabilityY = project(opinionY);\n  const probabilityGivenTrue = project(ifTrue);\n  const probabilityGivenFalse = project(ifFalse);\n\n  const posteriorIfYDenominator =\n    probabilityGivenTrue * priorX +\n    probabilityGivenFalse * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfY =\n    posteriorIfYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : (probabilityGivenTrue * priorX) / posteriorIfYDenominator;\n\n  const posteriorIfNotYDenominator =\n    (1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX +\n    (1 - probabilityGivenFalse) * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfNotY =\n    posteriorIfNotYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : ((1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX) / posteriorIfNotYDenominator;\n\n  const projectedX =\n    probabilityY * posteriorIfY + (1 - probabilityY) * posteriorIfNotY;\n  const uncertainty = Math.max(\n    opinionY.u * 0.5,\n    probabilityY * ifTrue.u + (1 - probabilityY) * ifFalse.u\n  );\n\n  return opinion(\n    projectedX * (1 - uncertainty),\n    (1 - projectedX) * (1 - uncertainty),\n    uncertainty,\n    priorX\n  );\n}\n\nexport function negate(o: Opinion): Opinion {\n  return { b: o.d, d: o.b, u: o.u, a: 1 - o.a };\n}\n\nexport function constraintFusion(\n  left: Opinion,\n  right: Opinion,\n  mode: \"pressure\" | \"redistribute\" = \"pressure\"\n): { o1: Opinion; o2: Opinion } {\n  if (mode === \"redistribute\") {\n    const leftProjected = project(left);\n    const rightProjected = project(right);\n    const total = leftProjected + rightProjected;\n\n    if (total <= 1) {\n      return { o1: left, o2: right };\n    }\n\n    const scale = 1 / total;\n    return {\n      o1: opinion(\n        left.b * scale,\n        left.d + left.b * (1 - scale),\n        left.u,\n        left.a\n      ),\n      o2: opinion(\n        right.b * scale,\n        right.d + right.b * (1 - scale),\n        right.u,\n        right.a\n      ),\n    };\n  }\n\n  const pressureLeft = right.b * 0.5;\n  const pressureRight = left.b * 0.5;\n\n  return {\n    o1: opinion(\n      left.b - pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.d + pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.u,\n      left.a\n    ),\n    o2: opinion(\n      right.b - pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.d + pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.u,\n      right.a\n    ),\n  };\n}\n\nexport function evidenceBalance(o: Opinion): number {\n  const total = o.b + o.d;\n  if (total === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  return (o.b - o.d) / total;\n}\n\nexport function areTensioned(left: Opinion, right: Opinion): boolean {\n  return (\n    project(left) > 0.5 &&\n    project(right) > 0.5 &&\n    (left.d > 0.2 || right.d > 0.2)\n  );\n}\n\nexport function informationGain(o: Opinion): number {\n  if (o.u === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  if (o.u === 1) {\n    return 1;\n  }\n  return o.u * (1 - Math.abs(o.b - o.d));\n}\n","import type { EdgeMetadata, Opinion, PropagationResult } from \"../../types\";\nimport {\n  constraintFusion,\n  cumulativeFusion,\n  negate,\n  project,\n  trustDiscount,\n} from \"../subjectiveLogic\";\n\nexport function applyNegativeSupport(\n  source: Opinion,\n  target: Opinion,\n  weight: number,\n  metadata: EdgeMetadata = {}\n): PropagationResult {\n  if (metadata.constraint === \"xor\") {\n    const result = constraintFusion(\n      source,\n      target,\n      metadata.normalization ?? \"pressure\"\n    );\n    return {\n      opinion: result.o2,\n      operator: \"constraint_fusion\",\n      rationale: `XOR constraint: source belief at ${project(source).toFixed(\n        2\n      )} pressures target`,\n    };\n  }\n\n  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(source), Math.abs(weight));\n  return {\n    opinion: cumulativeFusion(target, discounted),\n    operator: \"cumulative_fusion\",\n    rationale: `Contradicting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(\n      2\n    )}) from source at ${project(source).toFixed(2)}`,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function applyNegativeEvidence(\n  source: Opinion,\n  target: Opinion,\n  weight: number\n): PropagationResult {\n  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(source), Math.abs(weight));\n  return {\n    opinion: cumulativeFusion(target, discounted),\n    operator: \"cumulative_fusion\",\n    rationale: `Contradicting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(2)})`,\n  };\n}\n"]}

package/dist/v1/operations/dynamics/propagation.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+import { Opinion, EdgeMetadata, PropagationResult } from '../../types.js';
+
+type PropagationTraversalDirection = "outgoing" | "incoming";
+declare const EDGE_PROPAGATION_RULES: {
+    supports: {
+        direction: "outgoing";
+        handler: (source: Opinion, target: Opinion, weight: number, metadata: EdgeMetadata) => PropagationResult;
+    };
+    informs: {
+        direction: "outgoing";
+        handler: (source: Opinion, target: Opinion, weight: number) => PropagationResult;
+    };
+    depends_on: {
+        direction: "incoming";
+        handler: (source: Opinion, target: Opinion, _weight: number, metadata: EdgeMetadata) => PropagationResult;
+    };
+    derived_from: {
+        direction: "incoming";
+        handler: (_source: Opinion, target: Opinion) => {
+            opinion: Opinion;
+            operator: "trust_discount";
+            rationale: string;
+        };
+    };
+    contains: {
+        direction: "outgoing";
+        handler: (_source: Opinion, target: Opinion) => {
+            opinion: Opinion;
+            operator: "trust_discount";
+            rationale: string;
+        };
+    };
+    tests: {
+        direction: "outgoing";
+        handler: (_source: Opinion, target: Opinion) => {
+            opinion: Opinion;
+            operator: "trust_discount";
+            rationale: string;
+        };
+    };
+};
+type PropagationEdgeType = keyof typeof EDGE_PROPAGATION_RULES;
+type PropagationTraversalSpec = {
+    edgeType: PropagationEdgeType;
+    direction: PropagationTraversalDirection;
+};
+declare const PROPAGATION_TRAVERSAL_SPECS: readonly PropagationTraversalSpec[];
+declare function isPropagationEdgeType(edgeType: string): edgeType is PropagationEdgeType;
+declare function getPropagationTraversalSpecs(): readonly PropagationTraversalSpec[];
+declare function propagateThroughEdge(sourceOpinion: Opinion, targetOpinion: Opinion, edgeType: string, weight?: number, metadata?: EdgeMetadata): PropagationResult;
+declare function propagateAllEdges(currentOpinion: Opinion, incomingEdges: Array<{
+    sourceOpinion: Opinion;
+    edgeType: string;
+    weight: number;
+    metadata: EdgeMetadata;
+}>): PropagationResult;
+
+export { PROPAGATION_TRAVERSAL_SPECS, type PropagationEdgeType, type PropagationTraversalDirection, type PropagationTraversalSpec, getPropagationTraversalSpecs, isPropagationEdgeType, propagateAllEdges, propagateThroughEdge };