@lucern/confidence 0.1.0-alpha.2

package/README.md

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+# Confidence
+
+Pillar 6 module for Lucern's Reactive Confidence System.
+
+Scope:
+- Append-only confidence scoring from Subjective Logic opinions
+- Five confidence dynamics: propagation, revision, decay, defeat, and cascade
+- Subjective Logic operators for fusion, discounting, deduction, negation, and constraint handling
+- Epistemic contract evaluation helpers and modulation planning
+
+This module contains the pure logic for confidence updates. Convex-facing adapters remain in the kernel and graph-primitives layers.
+
+Constraints:
+- `modulateConfidence` remains append-only at the mutation boundary
+- Confidence history continues to be written through the existing belief-confidence ledger
+- Public mutation signatures do not change; only the pure scoring and evaluation math moves here
+
+## SL rigor
+
+- The canonical confidence shape is the 4-tuple `(b, d, u, a)`.
+- `b + d + u = 1`, and the projected scalar remains `P = b + a*u`.
+- Use `opinionFromScalar(value, mode, options?)` for scalar conversion.
+- Supported modes are `base_rate`, `dogmatic`, and `projected_with_u`.
+- `toDogmaticOpinion()` remains as a deprecated shim to the explicit dogmatic mode.
+- Bridge operators live in `src/v1/operations/bridge/index.ts` and default to Jøsang's non-informative weight `W = 2`.
+- `opinionFromBeta(alpha, beta, W, a)` maps binomial evidence counts into `(b, d, u, a)` with `b = alpha/(alpha + beta + W)`, `d = beta/(alpha + beta + W)`, and `u = W/(alpha + beta + W)`.
+- `opinionFromDirichlet(alpha[], W, a[])` maps multinomial evidence counts into `({ b[] }, u, { a[] })` with the same denominator `sum(alpha) + W`.
+- `projectDirichletOpinion()` maps a Dirichlet opinion back into its projected multinomial probability vector.
+- `betaFromOpinion()` maps a non-dogmatic opinion back into `(alpha, beta)`.
+- The conditional pair is `conditionalDeduction()` for forward inference and `conditionalAbduction()` for inverse inference.
+- `depends_on` uses textbook conditional deduction only when edge metadata provides both `conditionalA` and `conditionalNotA`; otherwise it falls back to the Lucern-specific `dampedDependencyCascade()`.
+- `temporalDecay(sourceOpinion, now, { referenceTime, halfLifeMs })` ages evidential mass back into uncertainty while preserving `a`; the default half-life is 90 days in the kernel adapter.
+- `src/v1/operations/operatorTaxonomy.ts` is the hard boundary between `SL_CANONICAL`, `SL_APPROXIMATION`, and `LUCERN_SPECIFIC` exports.
+- Confidence triggers are worktree-canonical: use `worktree_outcome` and `worktree_completed`, not `sprint_*`.

package/dist/index.d.ts

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+export { BeliefLifecycleBucket, ConfidencePolicyConfig, ConfidenceScoringMode, ContractConfirmedRule, ContractDisconfirmedRule, ContractExpiredRule, ContractModulationPlan, ContractPartialRule, DeadlineUrgency, DeadlineUrgencyLabel, DeadlineUrgencyTier, DecayTier, DecayTierLabel, DirichletOpinion, EdgeConstraint, EdgeMetadata, EdgeNormalization, EffectiveDecay, EpistemicContractCompositeOperator, EpistemicContractCondition, EpistemicContractConditionType, EpistemicContractDirection, EpistemicContractEvaluationResult, EpistemicContractLineageSource, EpistemicContractModulation, EpistemicContractRecord, EpistemicContractSchedule, EpistemicContractStatus, EvidentialAction, EvidentialEvaluatorConfig, EvidentialMetric, EvidentialMetricSnapshot, EvidentialOperator, MarketIndexComparatorConfig, MetricCheckerEvaluatorConfig, Opinion, PropagationMode, PropagationResult, ReferenceCheckCounterConfig, RescoringSchedule, SLOperator, StoredOpinionFields, TemporalDeadlineEvaluatorConfig, TupleContradictionPolicy, TupleContradictionTransition, VerificationConfidenceTrigger } from './v1/types.js';
+export { ConfidenceEngine, ContractEvaluatorPort, SubjectiveLogicOperatorPort } from './v1/interfaces.js';
+export { DEFAULT_TEMPORAL_DECAY_HALF_LIFE_MS, TemporalDecayParams, temporalDecay } from './v1/operations/temporalDecay.js';
+export { DEFAULT_NON_INFORMATIVE_WEIGHT, betaFromOpinion, opinionFromBeta, opinionFromDirichlet, projectDirichletOpinion } from './v1/operations/bridge/index.js';
+export { OpinionFromScalarMode, clamp01, confidenceFromOpinion, confidenceFromSL, hasProjectedOpinionChanged, opinionFromBaseRate, opinionFromDogmatic, opinionFromProjected, opinionFromScalar, readOpinionFromRecord, toDogmaticOpinion, toStoredOpinionFields } from './v1/operations/scoring.js';
+export { DEFAULT_TUPLE_CONTRADICTION_BELIEF_THRESHOLD, DEFAULT_TUPLE_CONTRADICTION_DISBELIEF_THRESHOLD, detectTupleContradiction, evaluateTupleContradictionTransition, normalizeTupleContradictionPolicy } from './v1/operations/contradiction/detectTupleContradiction.js';
+export { areTensioned, averagingFusion, conditionalAbduction, conditionalDeduction, confidenceLevel, constraintFusion, cumulativeFusion, dogmatic, evidenceBalance, informationGain, negate, opinion, project, trustDiscount, vacuous } from './v1/operations/subjectiveLogic/index.js';
+export { PROPAGATION_TRAVERSAL_SPECS, PropagationEdgeType, PropagationTraversalDirection, PropagationTraversalSpec, getPropagationTraversalSpecs, isPropagationEdgeType, propagateAllEdges, propagateThroughEdge } from './v1/operations/dynamics/propagation.js';
+export { bayesianUpdate, reviseConfidence, reviseConfidenceOpinion } from './v1/operations/dynamics/revision.js';
+export { DEADLINE_URGENCY, DECAY_TIERS, computeBaseDecay, computeDeadlineUrgency, computeEffectiveDecay, decay, getRescoringSchedule } from './v1/operations/dynamics/decay.js';
+export { applyNegativeEvidence, applyNegativeSupport } from './v1/operations/dynamics/defeat.js';
+export { dampedDependencyCascade, dampedDependencyOpinion } from './v1/operations/dynamics/cascade.js';
+export { BUILT_IN_EVIDENTIAL_ALIASES, BUILT_IN_EVIDENTIAL_EVALUATOR, BUILT_IN_MARKET_INDEX_COMPARATOR, BUILT_IN_METRIC_CHECKER, BUILT_IN_REFERENCE_CHECK_COUNTER, BUILT_IN_TEMPORAL_DEADLINE, buildComparisonRationale, buildEvidentialRationale, compareMetricValue, createInheritedContractRecord, deriveContractModulationPlan, deriveContractStatus, deriveVerificationTrigger, getEvaluatorInputRecord, normalizeEvidentialAction, parseComparisonOperator, parseEvidentialEvaluatorConfig, parseMarketIndexComparatorConfig, parseMetricCheckerConfig, parseNumericThreshold, parseReferenceCheckCounterConfig, parseTemporalDeadlineConfig, pickFiniteNumber, resolveComparisonResult } from './v1/operations/contracts/epistemicContract.js';
+export { ConfidenceOperatorName, OPERATOR_TAXONOMY, OPERATOR_TAXONOMY_BY_TAG, OPERATOR_TAXONOMY_ENTRIES, OPERATOR_TAXONOMY_TAGS, OperatorTaxonomyEntry, OperatorTaxonomyTag, PUBLIC_OPERATOR_EXPORT_NAMES } from './v1/operations/operatorTaxonomy.js';
+import './v1/operations/approximation.js';
+import './v1/operations/canonical.js';
+import './v1/operations/lucern.js';