@event4u/agent-config 6.1.0 → 7.0.0
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json +35 -3
- package/AGENTS.md +8 -7
- package/CHANGELOG.md +408 -0
- package/CONTRIBUTING.md +1 -1
- package/README.md +17 -15
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/agent-status.md +2 -2
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/agents/audit.md +3 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/agents/init.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/agents/optimize.md +4 -4
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/analyze/decision.md +108 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/analyze/incident.md +120 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/analyze/near-miss.md +113 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/analyze/postmortem.md +130 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/analyze/premortem.md +104 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/analyze.md +124 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/brand/identity.md +27 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/brand/review.md +27 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/brand/strategy.md +27 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/brand/tokens.md +28 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/brand/voice.md +27 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/brand.md +58 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/check-current-md.md +3 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/condense.md +2 -2
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/council/debate.md +2 -2
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/council/default.md +45 -18
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/fix/portability.md +3 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/fix/refs.md +3 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/implement-ticket.md +36 -6
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/knowledge/cross-repo.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/memory/add.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/mission/upgrade.md +182 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/optimize/skills.md +2 -2
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/orchestrate.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/pr/create.md +6 -4
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/review-changes.md +8 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/roadmap/materialize.md +73 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/skill/preview.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/skills/discover.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/threat-model.md +4 -4
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/upstream-contribute.md +3 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/video/from-script.md +2 -2
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/video/from-song.md +3 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/video/scene.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/video/storyboard.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/commands/video.md +3 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/contexts/communication/rules-auto/source-of-truth-mechanics.md +3 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/contexts/communication/rules-auto/user-interaction-mechanics.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/contexts/execution/evidence-discipline.md +153 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/contexts/execution/project-intelligence.md +264 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/contexts/execution/roadmap-process-loop.md +2 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/personas/ai-video-technical-director.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/personas/brand-strategist.md +74 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/personas/design-director.md +74 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/brand-consistency.md +77 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/brand-source-of-truth.md +57 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/direct-answers.md +2 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/domain-safety-disclaimer.md +2 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/git-history-discipline.md +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/icon-consistency.md +53 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/image-likeness-and-rights.md +67 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/lethal-trifecta-guard.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/persona-governance.md +2 -2
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/provider-lifecycle-discipline.md +3 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/roadmap-progress-sync.md +10 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/security-sensitive-stop.md +9 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/size-enforcement.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/source-confidentiality.md +3 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/source-discovery-gate.md +98 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/think-before-action.md +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/ui-audit-gate.md +2 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/untrusted-input-defense.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/rules/user-interaction.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/scripts/archive_completed_roadmaps.ts +392 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/scripts/update_roadmap_progress.ts +824 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/adr-create/SKILL.md +5 -5
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/agent-security-review/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/agents-md-thin-root/SKILL.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/ai-council/SKILL.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/analysis-autonomous-mode/SKILL.md +9 -13
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/blade-ui/SKILL.md +12 -5
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/blameless-post-mortem/SKILL.md +199 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand/ATTRIBUTION.md +38 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand/SKILL.md +115 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand/data/archetypes.csv +13 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand/data/color-psychology.csv +14 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand/data/logo-style-fit.csv +13 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand/data/manifest.json +226 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand/data/messaging-frameworks.csv +13 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand/data/naming-patterns.csv +13 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand/data/typography-principles.csv +13 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand/data/voice-tone.csv +13 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-asset-generation/SKILL.md +89 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-asset-generation/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-audit/SKILL.md +67 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-audit/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-identity/SKILL.md +101 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-identity/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-strategy/SKILL.md +83 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-strategy/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-to-tokens/SKILL.md +102 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-to-tokens/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-to-tokens/templates/marp-brand-deck.md.example +46 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/brand-to-tokens/templates/reveal-brand-deck.yaml +32 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/canvas-design/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/check-refs/SKILL.md +5 -5
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/code-review/SKILL.md +6 -15
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/command-writing/SKILL.md +2 -2
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/complexity-first-planning/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/context-authoring/SKILL.md +2 -2
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/context-document/SKILL.md +35 -2
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/corpus-grounding/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/corpus-grounding/scripts/bm25_search.ts +482 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/corpus-grounding/scripts/decision_engine.ts +803 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/corpus-grounding/scripts/ground.ts +541 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/corpus-grounding/scripts/schema_validator.ts +309 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/database/SKILL.md +26 -4
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/decision-record/SKILL.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/decision-record/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/decision-review/SKILL.md +179 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/description-assist/SKILL.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/design-intelligence/SKILL.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/design-intelligence/data/manifest.json +23 -6
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/design-intelligence/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/design-tokens/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/design-tokens/scripts/tokens.ts +888 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/doc-coauthoring/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/eloquent/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/emit-tickets/SKILL.md +198 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/estimate-ticket/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/git-workflow/SKILL.md +33 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/guideline-writing/SKILL.md +2 -2
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/iconography/SKILL.md +88 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/iconography/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/image-analyser/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/image-creator/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/image-editing/SKILL.md +100 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/image-editing/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/image-generation/SKILL.md +95 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/image-generation/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/image-provider-routing/SKILL.md +96 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/image-provider-routing/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/launch-readiness/SKILL.md +21 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/learning-to-rule-or-skill/SKILL.md +12 -8
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/lint-skills/SKILL.md +5 -5
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/logo-generation/SKILL.md +98 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/logo-generation/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/markitdown/SKILL.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/md-language-check/SKILL.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/motion-choreographer/SKILL.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/php-coder/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/prediction-pool-optimizer/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/premortem/SKILL.md +137 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/prompt-engineering-image/SKILL.md +115 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/prompt-engineering-image/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/prompt-validator/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/react-shadcn-ui/SKILL.md +12 -5
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/react-shadcn-ui/scripts/shadcn_add.ts +388 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/reasoning-orchestrator/SKILL.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/reasoning-orchestrator/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/refine-ticket/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/roadmap-management/SKILL.md +16 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/roadmap-writing/SKILL.md +76 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/root-cause-frameworks/SKILL.md +146 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/rule-refactor/SKILL.md +9 -9
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/rule-writing/SKILL.md +7 -7
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/script-writing/SKILL.md +2 -2
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/security-audit/SKILL.md +5 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/skill-improvement-pipeline/SKILL.md +19 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/skill-management/SKILL.md +3 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/skill-reviewer/SKILL.md +1 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/skill-writing/SKILL.md +5 -5
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/skill-writing/evals/triggers.json +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/source-discovery/SKILL.md +182 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/standards-from-config/SKILL.md +93 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/systematic-debugging/SKILL.md +7 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/tailwind-engineer/scripts/tailwind_config_gen.ts +561 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/threat-modeling/SKILL.md +1 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/typography-system/SKILL.md +138 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/typography-system/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/upstream-contribute/SKILL.md +3 -3
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/verify-repair-loop/SKILL.md +209 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/verify-repair-loop/evals/output-schema.yml +20 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/skills/verify-repair-loop/evals/triggers.json +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/agent-settings.md +7 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/contexts/knowledge-card.md +69 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/contexts/lesson-card.md +73 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/roadmaps.md +29 -1
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/README.md +6 -6
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/check_memory.ts +640 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/check_memory_proposal.ts +351 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/implement_ticket/__main__.ts +27 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/memory_hash.ts +333 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/memory_lookup.ts +1067 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/memory_report.ts +846 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/memory_signal.ts +422 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/memory_status.ts +191 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/pr_review_routing.ts +523 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/pr_risk_review.ts +0 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/telemetry/aggregator.ts +0 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/telemetry/boundary.ts +164 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/telemetry/engagement.ts +479 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/telemetry/report_renderer.ts +394 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/telemetry/settings.ts +210 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/telemetry_record.ts +255 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/telemetry_report.ts +189 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/telemetry_status.ts +312 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/tier_usage_report.ts +597 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/__main__.ts +14 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/_lib/agent_settings.ts +1118 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/_lib/user_global_paths.ts +329 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/cli.ts +206 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/cli_args.ts +249 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/delivery_state.ts +225 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/backend/analyze.ts +125 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/backend/implement.ts +189 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/backend/index.ts +94 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/backend/memory.ts +193 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/backend/plan.ts +267 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/backend/refine.ts +518 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/backend/report.ts +379 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/backend/test.ts +268 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/backend/verify.ts +258 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/index.ts +32 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/mixed/contract.ts +243 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/mixed/index.ts +108 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/mixed/stitch.ts +259 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/mixed/ui.ts +216 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui/_passthrough.ts +40 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui/app_spec.ts +241 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui/apply.ts +216 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui/audit.ts +506 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui/design.ts +325 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui/index.ts +102 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui/polish.ts +462 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui/review.ts +474 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui/scaffold.ts +352 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui_trivial/_skipped.ts +33 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui_trivial/apply.ts +213 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui_trivial/index.ts +111 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui_trivial/refine.ts +126 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui_trivial/report.ts +112 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/directives/ui_trivial/test.ts +164 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/dispatcher.ts +515 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/emitters.ts +119 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/errors.ts +24 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hook_bootstrap.ts +104 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/builtin/_chat_history_base.ts +176 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/builtin/chat_history_append.ts +41 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/builtin/chat_history_halt_append.ts +89 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/builtin/decision_gate.ts +193 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/builtin/decision_trace.ts +304 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/builtin/directive_set_guard.ts +110 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/builtin/halt_surface_audit.ts +118 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/builtin/index.ts +17 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/builtin/memory_visibility.ts +161 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/builtin/state_shape_validation.ts +45 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/builtin/trace.ts +134 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/context.ts +94 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/events.ts +58 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/exceptions.ts +85 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/index.ts +27 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/registry.ts +66 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/runner.ts +90 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/hooks/settings.ts +260 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/input_builders.ts +260 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/intent/classify.ts +466 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/migration/v0_to_v1.ts +531 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/orchestration.ts +366 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/persona_policy.ts +97 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/resolvers/diff.ts +135 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/resolvers/file.ts +175 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/resolvers/prompt.ts +115 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/scoring/confidence.ts +415 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/scoring/decision_engine.ts +466 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/scoring/decision_trace.ts +298 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/scoring/memory_visibility.ts +444 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/stack/detect.ts +252 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/stack/runner.ts +745 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/state.ts +1151 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/scripts/work_engine/state_io.ts +413 -0
- package/dist/agent-src/templates/tickets.md +120 -0
- package/dist/cli/commands/commands.js +2 -2
- package/dist/cli/commands/commands.js.map +1 -1
- package/dist/cli/commands/doctorShell.js +4 -22
- package/dist/cli/commands/doctorShell.js.map +1 -1
- package/dist/cli/commands/packs.js +1 -1
- package/dist/cli/commands/packs.js.map +1 -1
- package/dist/cli/commands/recordTriggerEval.js +179 -0
- package/dist/cli/commands/recordTriggerEval.js.map +1 -0
- package/dist/cli/commands/recordTriggerEval.test.js +113 -0
- package/dist/cli/commands/recordTriggerEval.test.js.map +1 -0
- package/dist/cli/commands/workspaces.js +1 -1
- package/dist/cli/commands/workspaces.js.map +1 -1
- package/dist/cli/main.js +22 -1
- package/dist/cli/main.js.map +1 -1
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- package/src/scripts/lint_agents_layout.py +0 -197
- package/src/scripts/lint_agents_md.py +0 -210
- package/src/scripts/lint_archived_skills.py +0 -159
- package/src/scripts/lint_artefact_frontmatter.py +0 -188
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- package/src/scripts/lint_command_verbs.py +0 -206
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- package/src/scripts/lint_context_spine_usage.py +0 -137
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- package/src/scripts/lint_discovery_vocabulary.py +0 -222
- package/src/scripts/lint_empty_roadmaps.py +0 -80
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- package/src/scripts/lint_explain_trace.py +0 -80
- package/src/scripts/lint_featured_skills.py +0 -144
- package/src/scripts/lint_flows.py +0 -215
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- package/src/scripts/lint_ghostwriter_source.py +0 -242
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- package/src/scripts/lint_handoffs.py +0 -217
- package/src/scripts/lint_hidden_unicode.py +0 -132
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- package/src/scripts/lint_hook_manifest.py +0 -217
- package/src/scripts/lint_instruction_smuggling.py +0 -107
- package/src/scripts/lint_load_context.py +0 -196
- package/src/scripts/lint_marketplace.py +0 -180
- package/src/scripts/lint_marketplace_install_completeness.py +0 -198
- package/src/scripts/lint_mcp_config_security.py +0 -124
- package/src/scripts/lint_mcp_registry_manifest.py +0 -69
- package/src/scripts/lint_media_policy_linkage.py +0 -140
- package/src/scripts/lint_model_tier_coverage.py +0 -73
- package/src/scripts/lint_namespace.py +0 -135
- package/src/scripts/lint_namespace_collisions.py +0 -103
- package/src/scripts/lint_new_skill_gate.py +0 -144
- package/src/scripts/lint_no_new_atomic_commands.py +0 -180
- package/src/scripts/lint_one_off_age.py +0 -184
- package/src/scripts/lint_orchestration_dsl.py +0 -217
- package/src/scripts/lint_orchestrator_auto_detect.py +0 -111
- package/src/scripts/lint_pack_boundaries.py +0 -147
- package/src/scripts/lint_pack_dependencies.py +0 -137
- package/src/scripts/lint_pack_first_win.py +0 -121
- package/src/scripts/lint_persona_governance.py +0 -164
- package/src/scripts/lint_positioning.py +0 -143
- package/src/scripts/lint_profile_overlay_set_only.py +0 -179
- package/src/scripts/lint_readme_jargon.py +0 -131
- package/src/scripts/lint_readme_size.py +0 -33
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- package/src/scripts/lint_roadmap_ci_steps.py +0 -186
- package/src/scripts/lint_roadmap_complexity.py +0 -220
- package/src/scripts/lint_role_experiences.py +0 -255
- package/src/scripts/lint_rule_interactions.py +0 -170
- package/src/scripts/lint_rule_tiers.py +0 -90
- package/src/scripts/lint_showcase_sessions.py +0 -148
- package/src/scripts/lint_skill_frontmatter_safety.py +0 -144
- package/src/scripts/lint_skill_tools.py +0 -168
- package/src/scripts/lint_topics_yaml.py +0 -89
- package/src/scripts/lint_trust_coherence.py +0 -212
- package/src/scripts/lint_value_dashboard.py +0 -218
- package/src/scripts/lint_workspace_boundary.py +0 -122
- package/src/scripts/mcp_parity_smoke.py +0 -316
- package/src/scripts/mcp_render.py +0 -173
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- package/src/scripts/mcp_server/catalog.py +0 -125
- package/src/scripts/mcp_server/metadata.py +0 -75
- package/src/scripts/mcp_server/prompts.py +0 -442
- package/src/scripts/mcp_server/requirements.txt +0 -4
- package/src/scripts/mcp_server/resources.py +0 -201
- package/src/scripts/mcp_server/server.py +0 -270
- package/src/scripts/mcp_server/telemetry.py +0 -128
- package/src/scripts/mcp_server/tools.py +0 -926
- package/src/scripts/mcp_telemetry_health.py +0 -214
- package/src/scripts/mcp_telemetry_query.py +0 -203
- package/src/scripts/mcp_telemetry_store.py +0 -211
- package/src/scripts/measure_augment_budget.py +0 -214
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- package/src/scripts/measure_patterns.py +0 -376
- package/src/scripts/measure_projection_bytes.py +0 -159
- package/src/scripts/measure_rule_budget.py +0 -347
- package/src/scripts/measure_skill_reduction.py +0 -102
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- package/src/scripts/memory_report.py +0 -314
- package/src/scripts/memory_signal.py +0 -165
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- package/src/scripts/mine_session.py +0 -356
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- package/src/scripts/move_artefact.py +0 -143
- package/src/scripts/new_skill.py +0 -148
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- package/src/scripts/pack_mcp_content.py +0 -293
- package/src/scripts/plan_physical_move.py +0 -353
- package/src/scripts/prediction-pool/poisson_sim.py +0 -167
- package/src/scripts/prediction-pool/pool_winsim.py +0 -236
- package/src/scripts/prediction-pool/score_ev.py +0 -188
- package/src/scripts/print_required_checks.py +0 -196
- package/src/scripts/probe_projection_fidelity.py +0 -202
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- package/src/scripts/roadmap_progress_hook.py +0 -274
- package/src/scripts/router_telemetry.py +0 -470
- package/src/scripts/run_skill_evals.py +0 -185
- package/src/scripts/runtime_dispatcher.py +0 -276
- package/src/scripts/runtime_handler.py +0 -148
- package/src/scripts/runtime_registry.py +0 -166
- package/src/scripts/score_skill_selection.py +0 -198
- package/src/scripts/security_audit_config.py +0 -153
- package/src/scripts/setup_eval_venv.sh +0 -58
- package/src/scripts/skill_collision_clusters.py +0 -162
- package/src/scripts/skill_discovery.py +0 -254
- package/src/scripts/skill_linter.py +0 -3694
- package/src/scripts/skill_overlap.py +0 -204
- package/src/scripts/skill_preview.py +0 -179
- package/src/scripts/skill_tools/__init__.py +0 -22
- package/src/scripts/skill_tools/audit_persona_coverage.py +0 -147
- package/src/scripts/skill_tools/audit_user_type_coverage.py +0 -148
- package/src/scripts/skill_tools/run_block_d_eval.py +0 -129
- package/src/scripts/skill_tools/score_skill_relevance.py +0 -169
- package/src/scripts/skill_tools/suggest_skill_for_task.py +0 -113
- package/src/scripts/skill_trigger_eval.py +0 -682
- package/src/scripts/skill_usage_collect.py +0 -191
- package/src/scripts/skill_usage_report.py +0 -162
- package/src/scripts/smoke_path_resolution.py +0 -93
- package/src/scripts/smoke_quickstart.py +0 -144
- package/src/scripts/snapshot_agent_outputs.py +0 -144
- package/src/scripts/spotcheck_thin_root.py +0 -134
- package/src/scripts/sync_agent_settings.py +0 -180
- package/src/scripts/sync_github_metadata.py +0 -147
- package/src/scripts/sync_gitignore.py +0 -291
- package/src/scripts/sync_yaml_rt.py +0 -734
- package/src/scripts/telegraph_stats.py +0 -119
- package/src/scripts/tool_registry.py +0 -146
- package/src/scripts/tools/__init__.py +0 -1
- package/src/scripts/tools/adapter_errors.py +0 -63
- package/src/scripts/tools/base_adapter.py +0 -91
- package/src/scripts/tools/github_adapter.py +0 -128
- package/src/scripts/tools/jira_adapter.py +0 -115
- package/src/scripts/trigger_coverage.py +0 -129
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- package/src/scripts/validate_agent_settings.py +0 -124
- package/src/scripts/validate_decision_engine.py +0 -136
- package/src/scripts/validate_discovery_manifest.py +0 -94
- package/src/scripts/validate_frontmatter.py +0 -647
- package/src/scripts/validate_pack_yaml.py +0 -179
- package/src/scripts/validate_safe_paths.py +0 -118
- package/src/scripts/validate_telegraph_carveouts.py +0 -129
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- package/src/scripts/verify_physical_move.py +0 -185
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""Poisson tournament simulator for prediction-pool-optimizer.
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Honest replacement for "I simulated 10,000 runs" — this actually runs them.
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Goals per match are drawn from a Poisson whose rate comes from each team's
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attack / defence strength; group stages are round-robin, then a single-
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elimination bracket runs over the qualifiers. Aggregates advancement and
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title probabilities over N runs.
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It is an APPROXIMATION, stated as such: real tournament bracket pairings
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(winner-of-A vs runner-up-of-B …) are format-specific. Provide an explicit
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`bracket` (list of name pairs per round, or "auto" for a random seed) to
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control this; the default "auto" randomly seeds qualifiers and is good
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enough for outright/advancement estimates, not for exact-pairing bonus
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questions.
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Input JSON shape:
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{
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"base_goals": 1.35, # league-average goals per side
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"teams": { "Germany": {"att": 1.3, "def": 0.8}, ... }, # att/def multipliers (1.0 = average)
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"groups": [ ["Germany","Scotland","Hungary","Switzerland"], ... ],
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"advance_per_group": 2,
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"bracket": "auto" # or omit; "auto" = random seed of qualifiers
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}
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Usage:
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python3 scripts/prediction-pool/poisson_sim.py teams.json --runs 20000 [--seed 1]
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import argparse
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import json
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import math
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import random
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import sys
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def _poisson(rate: float, rng: random.Random) -> int:
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"""Knuth's algorithm — stdlib only, no numpy."""
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return 0
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lam_h = base * h.get("att", 1.0) * a.get("def", 1.0)
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def _play(home: str, away: str, teams: dict, base: float, rng: random.Random,
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lam_h, lam_a = _rates(home, away, teams, base)
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def _knockout(qualifiers: list[str], teams: dict, base: float, rng: random.Random) -> str:
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ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Poisson tournament simulator (stdlib only).")
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ap.add_argument("config", help="Path to teams/groups JSON.")
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ap.add_argument("--runs", type=int, default=20000, help="Number of simulated tournaments.")
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""Field model + P(finish 1st) simulator for prediction-pool-optimizer.
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Honest operationalisation of the large-pool strategy note: in a big pool the
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target is **P(finish ahead of the whole field)**, not E(points). Maximizing EV
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makes your tip-set converge with everyone else's EV-max set, so you cannot open
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the gap you need. This script measures that — and greedily finds the few tips
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worth flipping off EV-max to manufacture upside.
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What it does:
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1. Models the FIELD: each opponent commits one tip per match, drawn from a
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softmax over the per-match EV table (temperature controls spread — low =
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the crowd clusters tightly on EV-max, high = noisy). This is a model of
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the crowd, stated as such; feed a real field distribution if you have one.
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2. Pre-draws R outcome scenarios from the Poisson grids and pre-scores every
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opponent once, so evaluating any of MY tip-sets is cheap.
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3. Reports P(win) for the EV-max-everywhere baseline, then runs a greedy
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flip search: repeatedly flip the single tip that most raises P(win),
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reporting the EV cost and the P(win) gain per flip, up to --max-flips.
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The lesson it makes concrete: with small N the EV-max set already wins often
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and flips do not help (don't add variance you don't need); with large N and a
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deficit, a handful of calculated flips can lift P(win) materially at a small
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EV cost. The crossover is empirical — run it.
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It is an APPROXIMATION: the field is a softmax-EV model, not your real pool's
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tips, and the Poisson grids are only as good as the lambdas you feed (de-vigged
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consensus odds — see reference/odds-and-bonus.md). Outcomes and EV are exact
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for that model; the field shape is a prior.
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Input JSON:
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{
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"rule": {"exact": 5, "diff": 3, "tendency": 2},
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"participants": 120, # field size N; opponents modelled = N-1 (capped by --max-opponents)
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"my_lead": 0, # my current points minus the rival-to-beat's (negative = behind)
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"field_temperature": 0.6, # softmax temp for crowd spread around EV-max
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"matches": [
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{"match": "A", "lh": 2.0, "la": 0.7},
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{"match": "B", "lh": 0.6, "la": 2.1}
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]
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}
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Usage:
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python3 scripts/prediction-pool/pool_winsim.py pool.json --runs 4000 --max-flips 4 [--seed 1]
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import argparse
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import json
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import math
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import random
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import sys
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from pathlib import Path
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# Reuse the exact-score engine.
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sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent))
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from score_ev import ev_table, grid, _score # noqa: E402
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def _parse_tip(s: str) -> tuple[int, int]:
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return int(h), int(a)
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def _flat_grid(g):
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"""Flatten a joint grid into (prob, (h,a)) pairs for sampling."""
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flat = []
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for h in range(len(g)):
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for a in range(len(g[h])):
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p = g[h][a]
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if p > 0:
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flat.append((p, (h, a)))
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return flat
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def _sample_outcome(flat, rng: random.Random) -> tuple[int, int]:
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acc += p
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return ha
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return flat[-1][1]
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def _softmax_pick(rows, temperature: float, rng: random.Random) -> tuple[int, int]:
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"""Pick a tip (h,a) from EV rows via softmax(EV / temperature)."""
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if temperature <= 0:
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h, a, _ = rows[0]
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return h, a
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top = rows[:24] # the tail has negligible mass; cap for speed
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mx = top[0][2]
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weights = [math.exp((ev - mx) / temperature) for _, _, ev in top]
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tot = sum(weights)
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r = rng.random() * tot
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acc = 0.0
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for (h, a, _), w in zip(top, weights):
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acc += w
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if r <= acc:
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return h, a
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h, a, _ = top[-1]
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return h, a
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def run(cfg: dict, runs: int, max_flips: int, max_opponents: int, top_flip: int,
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seed: int):
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rng = random.Random(seed)
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rule = cfg.get("rule", {"exact": 4, "diff": 3, "tendency": 2})
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pe, pd, pt = float(rule["exact"]), float(rule["diff"]), float(rule["tendency"])
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n = int(cfg.get("participants", 20))
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my_lead = float(cfg.get("my_lead", 0))
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temp = float(cfg.get("field_temperature", 0.6))
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matches = cfg["matches"]
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n_opp = max(0, min(n - 1, max_opponents))
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# Per match: EV table + sampling grid.
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per = []
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for m in matches:
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rows, _ = ev_table(m["lh"], m["la"], pe, pd, pt, max_tip=6)
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g = grid(m["lh"], m["la"])
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per.append({"name": m.get("match", "?"), "rows": rows, "flat": _flat_grid(g)})
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# Pre-draw R outcome scenarios (one actual scoreline per match per run).
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scenarios = [[_sample_outcome(p["flat"], rng) for p in per] for _ in range(runs)]
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# Model the field: each opponent commits a fixed tip per match (softmax-EV),
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# then score each opponent across all scenarios. Keep the per-scenario field
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# MAX so any of my tip-sets can be evaluated against it cheaply.
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field_max = [(-1e9) for _ in range(runs)]
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for _ in range(n_opp):
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opp_tips = [_softmax_pick(p["rows"], temp, rng) for p in per]
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for s_idx, sc in enumerate(scenarios):
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tot = 0.0
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for (th, ta), (ah, aa) in zip(opp_tips, sc):
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tot += _score(th, ta, ah, aa, pe, pd, pt)
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if tot > field_max[s_idx]:
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field_max[s_idx] = tot
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def my_total(tipset, s_idx):
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sc = scenarios[s_idx]
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tot = 0.0
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for (th, ta), (ah, aa) in zip(tipset, sc):
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tot += _score(th, ta, ah, aa, pe, pd, pt)
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return tot
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def p_win(tipset):
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wins = 0
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149
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for s_idx in range(runs):
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if my_total(tipset, s_idx) + my_lead > field_max[s_idx]:
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wins += 1
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return wins / runs
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|
-
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154
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# Baseline: EV-max on every match.
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155
|
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ev_max_set = [(p["rows"][0][0], p["rows"][0][1]) for p in per]
|
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156
|
-
base_pwin = p_win(ev_max_set)
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157
|
-
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|
158
|
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# Greedy flips: repeatedly flip the one tip that most raises P(win),
|
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159
|
-
# considering each match's top-`top_flip` EV candidates.
|
|
160
|
-
current = list(ev_max_set)
|
|
161
|
-
flips = []
|
|
162
|
-
used = set()
|
|
163
|
-
for _ in range(max_flips):
|
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164
|
-
best = None
|
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165
|
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for mi, p in enumerate(per):
|
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166
|
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if mi in used:
|
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167
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-
continue
|
|
168
|
-
for h, a, ev in p["rows"][:top_flip]:
|
|
169
|
-
if (h, a) == current[mi]:
|
|
170
|
-
continue
|
|
171
|
-
trial = list(current)
|
|
172
|
-
trial[mi] = (h, a)
|
|
173
|
-
pw = p_win(trial)
|
|
174
|
-
ev_cost = p["rows"][0][2] - ev
|
|
175
|
-
if best is None or pw > best["pwin"]:
|
|
176
|
-
best = {"mi": mi, "tip": (h, a), "pwin": pw, "ev_cost": ev_cost,
|
|
177
|
-
"name": p["name"]}
|
|
178
|
-
if best is None or best["pwin"] <= (flips[-1]["pwin"] if flips else base_pwin):
|
|
179
|
-
break
|
|
180
|
-
current[best["mi"]] = best["tip"]
|
|
181
|
-
used.add(best["mi"])
|
|
182
|
-
flips.append(best)
|
|
183
|
-
|
|
184
|
-
return {
|
|
185
|
-
"participants": n, "opponents_modelled": n_opp, "runs": runs,
|
|
186
|
-
"my_lead": my_lead, "field_temperature": temp,
|
|
187
|
-
"rule": {"exact": pe, "diff": pd, "tendency": pt},
|
|
188
|
-
"ev_max_set": [f"{per[i]['name']}={h}:{a}" for i, (h, a) in enumerate(ev_max_set)],
|
|
189
|
-
"p_win_ev_max": round(base_pwin, 4),
|
|
190
|
-
"flips": [
|
|
191
|
-
{"match": f["name"], "to": f"{f['tip'][0]}:{f['tip'][1]}",
|
|
192
|
-
"ev_cost": round(f["ev_cost"], 3), "p_win_after": round(f["pwin"], 4)}
|
|
193
|
-
for f in flips
|
|
194
|
-
],
|
|
195
|
-
"p_win_after_flips": round((flips[-1]["pwin"] if flips else base_pwin), 4),
|
|
196
|
-
}
|
|
197
|
-
|
|
198
|
-
|
|
199
|
-
def main(argv=None) -> int:
|
|
200
|
-
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Field model + P(win) simulator.")
|
|
201
|
-
ap.add_argument("config", help="JSON config (rule, participants, my_lead, matches)")
|
|
202
|
-
ap.add_argument("--runs", type=int, default=4000, help="outcome scenarios (default 4000)")
|
|
203
|
-
ap.add_argument("--max-flips", type=int, default=4, help="max tips to flip off EV-max")
|
|
204
|
-
ap.add_argument("--max-opponents", type=int, default=300,
|
|
205
|
-
help="cap opponents modelled (default 300)")
|
|
206
|
-
ap.add_argument("--top-flip", type=int, default=4,
|
|
207
|
-
help="EV candidates per match to consider when flipping")
|
|
208
|
-
ap.add_argument("--seed", type=int, default=1)
|
|
209
|
-
ap.add_argument("--json", action="store_true", help="emit JSON instead of text")
|
|
210
|
-
args = ap.parse_args(argv)
|
|
211
|
-
|
|
212
|
-
cfg = json.loads(Path(args.config).read_text())
|
|
213
|
-
res = run(cfg, args.runs, args.max_flips, args.max_opponents, args.top_flip, args.seed)
|
|
214
|
-
|
|
215
|
-
if args.json:
|
|
216
|
-
print(json.dumps(res, indent=2))
|
|
217
|
-
return 0
|
|
218
|
-
|
|
219
|
-
print(f"participants {res['participants']} (modelled {res['opponents_modelled']}) "
|
|
220
|
-
f"runs {res['runs']} my_lead {res['my_lead']} field_temp {res['field_temperature']}")
|
|
221
|
-
print(f"EV-max set: {', '.join(res['ev_max_set'])}")
|
|
222
|
-
print(f"P(win) all-EV-max : {res['p_win_ev_max']:.4f}")
|
|
223
|
-
if not res["flips"]:
|
|
224
|
-
print("greedy flips: none improved P(win) — EV-max is already best (small/easy field).")
|
|
225
|
-
else:
|
|
226
|
-
print("suggested flips (greedy, each raises P(win) most):")
|
|
227
|
-
for f in res["flips"]:
|
|
228
|
-
print(f" flip {f['match']} -> {f['to']} (EV cost {f['ev_cost']:+.3f}) "
|
|
229
|
-
f"P(win) {f['p_win_after']:.4f}")
|
|
230
|
-
print(f"P(win) after flips: {res['p_win_after_flips']:.4f} "
|
|
231
|
-
f"(+{res['p_win_after_flips'] - res['p_win_ev_max']:.4f})")
|
|
232
|
-
return 0
|
|
233
|
-
|
|
234
|
-
|
|
235
|
-
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
|
236
|
-
sys.exit(main())
|
|
@@ -1,188 +0,0 @@
|
|
|
1
|
-
#!/usr/bin/env python3
|
|
2
|
-
"""Exact-score EV optimiser for prediction-pool-optimizer.
|
|
3
|
-
|
|
4
|
-
Honest replacement for eyeballing the favourite — given each side's expected
|
|
5
|
-
goals (lambda) and the pool's scoring rule, this builds the full Poisson
|
|
6
|
-
score grid and computes the expected points of EVERY candidate tip, then
|
|
7
|
-
prints the EV-maximizing scoreline. It exists to kill two recurring failure
|
|
8
|
-
modes:
|
|
9
|
-
|
|
10
|
-
1. Hallucinated high scorelines (4:2, 1:4, 3:2 ...). Under any partial-points
|
|
11
|
-
rule these are almost never EV-max for a moderate favourite — the points
|
|
12
|
-
live in the tendency and goal-difference tiers, not the exact high score.
|
|
13
|
-
2. Under-tipped draws. A correctly-tipped draw banks the goal-difference
|
|
14
|
-
tier on every draw scoreline, so a 1:1 can beat a 1:0 in a close game.
|
|
15
|
-
The grid surfaces this; intuition does not.
|
|
16
|
-
|
|
17
|
-
The scoring model (configurable points per tier):
|
|
18
|
-
|
|
19
|
-
exact result → --exact (default 4)
|
|
20
|
-
goal diff → --diff (default 3) # same difference, not exact; draw-on-draw lands here
|
|
21
|
-
tendency → --tendency (default 2) # same W/D/L sign only
|
|
22
|
-
else → 0
|
|
23
|
-
|
|
24
|
-
For kicktipp's common "2 / 3 / 5" config run with --tendency 2 --diff 3 --exact 5.
|
|
25
|
-
|
|
26
|
-
It is an APPROXIMATION only in its goal model: a Poisson per side with the
|
|
27
|
-
provided lambdas, sides independent. That is the standard football scoreline
|
|
28
|
-
model and is robust to small lambda changes — but the lambdas themselves must
|
|
29
|
-
come from de-vigged consensus odds (see reference/odds-and-bonus.md), not a
|
|
30
|
-
guess. Feed it real numbers and the EV-max is exact for that model.
|
|
31
|
-
|
|
32
|
-
Input — either two lambdas on the CLI:
|
|
33
|
-
|
|
34
|
-
python3 scripts/prediction-pool/score_ev.py --lh 2.0 --la 0.7
|
|
35
|
-
python3 scripts/prediction-pool/score_ev.py --lh 0.6 --la 2.1 --tendency 2 --diff 3 --exact 5
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36
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-
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37
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or a JSON file of named matches (batch):
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38
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-
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39
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python3 scripts/prediction-pool/score_ev.py matches.json --tendency 2 --diff 3 --exact 5
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40
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-
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41
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matches.json:
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42
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[
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43
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{"match": "Senegal-Iraq", "lh": 2.0, "la": 0.7},
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44
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{"match": "Qatar-Switzerland", "lh": 0.6, "la": 2.1}
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45
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]
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46
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-
"""
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47
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from __future__ import annotations
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48
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-
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49
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import argparse
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50
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import json
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51
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-
import math
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52
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import sys
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53
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from pathlib import Path
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54
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-
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55
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MAX_GOALS = 12 # truncation of the Poisson grid; tail beyond this is negligible
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56
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-
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57
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-
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58
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def _pois_pmf(k: int, rate: float) -> float:
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59
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if rate <= 0:
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60
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return 1.0 if k == 0 else 0.0
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61
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return math.exp(-rate) * rate ** k / math.factorial(k)
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62
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-
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63
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-
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64
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def _sign(x: int) -> int:
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65
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return (x > 0) - (x < 0)
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66
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-
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67
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-
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|
68
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def _score(th: int, ta: int, ah: int, aa: int,
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69
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pts_exact: float, pts_diff: float, pts_tend: float) -> float:
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70
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"""Points a tip (th:ta) earns against an actual result (ah:aa)."""
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71
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if th == ah and ta == aa:
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72
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return pts_exact
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73
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if (th - ta) == (ah - aa):
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74
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return pts_diff
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75
|
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if _sign(th - ta) == _sign(ah - aa):
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76
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return pts_tend
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|
77
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return 0.0
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|
78
|
-
|
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79
|
-
|
|
80
|
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def grid(lh: float, la: float, max_goals: int = MAX_GOALS):
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81
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"""Joint probability of every actual scoreline up to max_goals."""
|
|
82
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ph = [_pois_pmf(k, lh) for k in range(max_goals + 1)]
|
|
83
|
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pa = [_pois_pmf(k, la) for k in range(max_goals + 1)]
|
|
84
|
-
return [[ph[h] * pa[a] for a in range(max_goals + 1)] for h in range(max_goals + 1)]
|
|
85
|
-
|
|
86
|
-
|
|
87
|
-
def ev_table(lh: float, la: float, pts_exact: float, pts_diff: float, pts_tend: float,
|
|
88
|
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max_tip: int = 6, max_goals: int = MAX_GOALS):
|
|
89
|
-
"""EV (expected points) of every candidate tip up to max_tip goals/side."""
|
|
90
|
-
g = grid(lh, la, max_goals)
|
|
91
|
-
rows = []
|
|
92
|
-
for th in range(max_tip + 1):
|
|
93
|
-
for ta in range(max_tip + 1):
|
|
94
|
-
ev = 0.0
|
|
95
|
-
for ah in range(max_goals + 1):
|
|
96
|
-
for aa in range(max_goals + 1):
|
|
97
|
-
p = g[ah][aa]
|
|
98
|
-
if p <= 0:
|
|
99
|
-
continue
|
|
100
|
-
s = _score(th, ta, ah, aa, pts_exact, pts_diff, pts_tend)
|
|
101
|
-
if s:
|
|
102
|
-
ev += p * s
|
|
103
|
-
rows.append((th, ta, ev))
|
|
104
|
-
rows.sort(key=lambda r: r[2], reverse=True)
|
|
105
|
-
return rows, g
|
|
106
|
-
|
|
107
|
-
|
|
108
|
-
def _modal(g) -> tuple[int, int, float]:
|
|
109
|
-
best = (0, 0, 0.0)
|
|
110
|
-
for h in range(len(g)):
|
|
111
|
-
for a in range(len(g[h])):
|
|
112
|
-
if g[h][a] > best[2]:
|
|
113
|
-
best = (h, a, g[h][a])
|
|
114
|
-
return best
|
|
115
|
-
|
|
116
|
-
|
|
117
|
-
def _p_draw(g) -> float:
|
|
118
|
-
return sum(g[i][i] for i in range(len(g)))
|
|
119
|
-
|
|
120
|
-
|
|
121
|
-
def analyse(lh: float, la: float, pts_exact: float, pts_diff: float, pts_tend: float,
|
|
122
|
-
max_tip: int = 6, top: int = 6):
|
|
123
|
-
rows, g = ev_table(lh, la, pts_exact, pts_diff, pts_tend, max_tip)
|
|
124
|
-
mh, ma, mp = _modal(g)
|
|
125
|
-
return {
|
|
126
|
-
"lambda": [lh, la],
|
|
127
|
-
"rule": {"exact": pts_exact, "diff": pts_diff, "tendency": pts_tend},
|
|
128
|
-
"ev_max": {"tip": f"{rows[0][0]}:{rows[0][1]}", "ev": round(rows[0][2], 3)},
|
|
129
|
-
"modal_result": {"score": f"{mh}:{ma}", "prob": round(mp, 3)},
|
|
130
|
-
"p_draw": round(_p_draw(g), 3),
|
|
131
|
-
"ranked": [{"tip": f"{h}:{a}", "ev": round(ev, 3)} for h, a, ev in rows[:top]],
|
|
132
|
-
}
|
|
133
|
-
|
|
134
|
-
|
|
135
|
-
def _print_one(name: str | None, res: dict) -> None:
|
|
136
|
-
if name:
|
|
137
|
-
print(f"\n## {name}")
|
|
138
|
-
lh, la = res["lambda"]
|
|
139
|
-
r = res["rule"]
|
|
140
|
-
print(f"lambda {lh}:{la} rule exact={r['exact']} diff={r['diff']} tendency={r['tendency']}")
|
|
141
|
-
print(f"EV-max tip : {res['ev_max']['tip']} (EV {res['ev_max']['ev']})")
|
|
142
|
-
print(f"modal score: {res['modal_result']['score']} (P {res['modal_result']['prob']}) "
|
|
143
|
-
f"P(draw) {res['p_draw']}")
|
|
144
|
-
print("ranked by EV:")
|
|
145
|
-
for row in res["ranked"]:
|
|
146
|
-
flag = " <- EV-max" if row["tip"] == res["ev_max"]["tip"] else ""
|
|
147
|
-
print(f" {row['tip']:>5} EV {row['ev']:.3f}{flag}")
|
|
148
|
-
|
|
149
|
-
|
|
150
|
-
def main(argv=None) -> int:
|
|
151
|
-
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Exact-score EV optimiser (Poisson grid).")
|
|
152
|
-
ap.add_argument("matches", nargs="?", help="JSON file of matches [{match,lh,la}]")
|
|
153
|
-
ap.add_argument("--lh", type=float, help="home expected goals (lambda)")
|
|
154
|
-
ap.add_argument("--la", type=float, help="away expected goals (lambda)")
|
|
155
|
-
ap.add_argument("--exact", type=float, default=4.0, help="points for exact result (default 4)")
|
|
156
|
-
ap.add_argument("--diff", type=float, default=3.0, help="points for correct goal difference (default 3)")
|
|
157
|
-
ap.add_argument("--tendency", type=float, default=2.0, help="points for correct tendency (default 2)")
|
|
158
|
-
ap.add_argument("--max-tip", type=int, default=6, help="max goals/side to consider as a tip")
|
|
159
|
-
ap.add_argument("--top", type=int, default=6, help="rows to print per match")
|
|
160
|
-
ap.add_argument("--json", action="store_true", help="emit JSON instead of text")
|
|
161
|
-
args = ap.parse_args(argv)
|
|
162
|
-
|
|
163
|
-
jobs: list[tuple[str | None, float, float]] = []
|
|
164
|
-
if args.matches:
|
|
165
|
-
data = json.loads(Path(args.matches).read_text())
|
|
166
|
-
for m in data:
|
|
167
|
-
jobs.append((m.get("match"), float(m["lh"]), float(m["la"])))
|
|
168
|
-
elif args.lh is not None and args.la is not None:
|
|
169
|
-
jobs.append((None, args.lh, args.la))
|
|
170
|
-
else:
|
|
171
|
-
ap.error("provide either a matches JSON file or --lh and --la")
|
|
172
|
-
|
|
173
|
-
out = []
|
|
174
|
-
for name, lh, la in jobs:
|
|
175
|
-
res = analyse(lh, la, args.exact, args.diff, args.tendency, args.max_tip, args.top)
|
|
176
|
-
if name:
|
|
177
|
-
res["match"] = name
|
|
178
|
-
out.append(res)
|
|
179
|
-
if not args.json:
|
|
180
|
-
_print_one(name, res)
|
|
181
|
-
|
|
182
|
-
if args.json:
|
|
183
|
-
print(json.dumps(out, indent=2))
|
|
184
|
-
return 0
|
|
185
|
-
|
|
186
|
-
|
|
187
|
-
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
|
188
|
-
sys.exit(main())
|