@aglyn/plugins-ai 1.0.0-beta.143

package/src/lib/model/ai-experiment.js

@@ -0,0 +1,395 @@
+/**
+ * @license
+ * Copyright 2026 Aglyn LLC
+ *
+ * Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
+ * you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
+ * You may obtain a copy of the License at
+ *
+ *   http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
+ *
+ * Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
+ * distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
+ * WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
+ * See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
+ * limitations under the License.
+ */ import { _ as _extends } from "@swc/helpers/_/_extends";
+export const AI_EXPERIMENT_TASKS = [
+    'variants',
+    'explain'
+];
+/** The task a job's inputs name, or `null` when they name none this step runs. */ export function aiExperimentTask(inputs) {
+    const value = inputs == null ? void 0 : inputs['task'];
+    return typeof value === 'string' && AI_EXPERIMENT_TASKS.includes(value) ? value : null;
+}
+export const AI_EXPERIMENT_TARGETS = [
+    'screen',
+    'section',
+    'email'
+];
+/** The target a job's inputs name, or `null` when they name none. */ export function aiExperimentTarget(inputs) {
+    const value = inputs == null ? void 0 : inputs['target'];
+    return typeof value === 'string' && AI_EXPERIMENT_TARGETS.includes(value) ? value : null;
+}
+/**
+ * How many variants a proposal may hold, the cap the A/B testing card stores
+ * and the page runner buckets against. Proposing a fifth would be proposing
+ * something nothing can save.
+ */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_VARIANTS = 4;
+/** The fewest a test can be: a control and one challenger. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_VARIANTS = 2;
+/** How long a variant's name may run, as the card's own field holds one. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_NAME_MAX_CHARS = 60;
+/** How long one line of a variant's copy may run. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_LINE_MAX_CHARS = 200;
+/** How long a variant's body may run. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_BODY_MAX_CHARS = 1200;
+/** How long the sentence saying what a variant changes may run. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_RATIONALE_MAX_CHARS = 200;
+/** How much of what is under test is sent. Past this it is a document, not a subject. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_SUBJECT_MAX_CHARS = 4000;
+// ── The result ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+/**
+ * The reader marketing registers for its A/B test results, and the columns it
+ * publishes. Named here rather than imported because the owner is another
+ * plugin: a table that does not carry these columns is one this step cannot
+ * read, and it says so instead of guessing.
+ */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_READER = 'marketing.experiments';
+export const AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS = {
+    test: 'test',
+    variant: 'variant',
+    exposures: 'shown',
+    conversions: 'conversions',
+    rate: 'rate',
+    lift: 'lift',
+    confidence: 'confidence'
+};
+/**
+ * The exposures each arm needs before a comparison is read at all. Below this
+ * a test is early rather than inconclusive, which is a different thing to tell
+ * someone: one says wait, the other says stop.
+ */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPOSURES = 200;
+/**
+ * The successes and failures each arm needs, at the pooled rate, for the
+ * normal approximation behind a two-proportion test to be worth reading. The
+ * textbook condition, and the reason a test with plenty of traffic and almost
+ * no conversions is still too early to call.
+ */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPECTED = 5;
+/**
+ * The confidence a single comparison is called at: the same 95% the A/B
+ * testing card's auto-winner offers, so the explanation and the card agree
+ * about what "confident" means when there is one challenger.
+ */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_CONFIDENCE = 0.95;
+/**
+ * The confidence ONE comparison must clear when a test has `challengers` of
+ * them (Šidák): testing three challengers at 95% each would call a winner by
+ * chance about one time in seven, so the bar rises with the number of chances
+ * taken. With one challenger this is exactly `AI_EXPERIMENT_CONFIDENCE`.
+ */ export function aiExperimentConfidenceThreshold(challengers) {
+    const count = Math.max(1, Math.floor(challengers));
+    return AI_EXPERIMENT_CONFIDENCE ** (1 / count);
+}
+/** The verdicts that name an arm, and so let an explanation name one. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_DECIDED_VERDICTS = [
+    'winner',
+    'control'
+];
+/** Whether a verdict lets an explanation name a winner. */ export function aiExperimentVerdictNamesWinner(verdict) {
+    return AI_EXPERIMENT_DECIDED_VERDICTS.includes(verdict);
+}
+const num = (value)=>typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) ? value : 0;
+const maybe = (value)=>typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) ? value : null;
+const text = (value)=>typeof value === 'string' ? value.trim() : '';
+/** Whether a table is the A/B test results, by the columns it publishes. */ export function isAiExperimentTable(table) {
+    var _ref;
+    const keys = new Set(((_ref = table == null ? void 0 : table.columns) != null ? _ref : []).map((column)=>column.key));
+    return Object.values(AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS).every((key)=>keys.has(key));
+}
+/** The tests a results table holds, by the name it labels each with. */ export function aiExperimentTestNames(table) {
+    var _ref;
+    if (!isAiExperimentTable(table)) return [];
+    const names = [];
+    for (const row of (_ref = table == null ? void 0 : table.rows) != null ? _ref : []){
+        const name = text(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.test]);
+        if (name && !names.includes(name)) names.push(name);
+    }
+    return names;
+}
+/**
+ * One test's arms, in the order the table gave them — the control first, as
+ * the reader's own note says it publishes them. An empty list where the table
+ * is not the results, or holds no such test.
+ */ export function readAiExperimentArms(table, test) {
+    var _ref;
+    if (!isAiExperimentTable(table)) return [];
+    const wanted = test.trim();
+    const arms = [];
+    for (const row of (_ref = table == null ? void 0 : table.rows) != null ? _ref : []){
+        if (text(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.test]) !== wanted) continue;
+        const id = text(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.variant]);
+        if (!id) continue;
+        arms.push({
+            id,
+            exposures: Math.max(0, num(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.exposures])),
+            conversions: Math.max(0, num(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.conversions])),
+            rate: maybe(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.rate]),
+            lift: maybe(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.lift]),
+            confidence: maybe(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.confidence])
+        });
+        if (arms.length === AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_VARIANTS) break;
+    }
+    return arms;
+}
+/** What an arm is told to wait for, in words with no figure in them. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_EXPOSURES = 'at least one variant has not been shown to enough visitors yet';
+export const AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_CONVERSIONS = 'too little has converted yet for the comparison to mean anything';
+export const AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_SPREAD = 'no variant is far enough from the first one for the difference to be more than chance';
+export const AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_UNREADABLE = 'these figures do not describe a test with a first variant and something to compare against it';
+/**
+ * What a test's figures support (AGL-2914), decided before a model is asked
+ * anything.
+ *
+ * The first arm is the control, as the results reader publishes it. A verdict
+ * is reached in this order, and the first answer wins:
+ *
+ * 1. fewer than two arms — `unreadable`;
+ * 2. an arm under `AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPOSURES`, or one whose expected
+ *    successes or failures at the pooled rate are under
+ *    `AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPECTED` — `too-early`. The second is what stops a
+ *    test with a hundred thousand visitors and four conversions reading as a
+ *    decided one;
+ * 3. a challenger whose confidence clears the multiplicity-corrected
+ *    threshold — `winner`, the most confident of them;
+ * 4. every challenger below `1 - threshold`, which is the same statement made
+ *    about the control — `control`;
+ * 5. anything else — `inconclusive`.
+ *
+ * A challenger the owner could not compare (`confidence` is `null`) can never
+ * win, and leaves the control undecided too: not knowing is not evidence.
+ */ export function readAiExperimentResult(test, arms) {
+    const kept = arms.slice(0, AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_VARIANTS);
+    const challengers = Math.max(1, kept.length - 1);
+    const threshold = aiExperimentConfidenceThreshold(challengers) * 100;
+    const reading = (verdict, winnerId, reasons)=>({
+            verdict,
+            test: test.trim(),
+            arms: kept,
+            winnerId,
+            threshold: Math.round(threshold * 100) / 100,
+            reasons
+        });
+    if (kept.length < AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_VARIANTS) {
+        return reading('unreadable', null, [
+            AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_UNREADABLE
+        ]);
+    }
+    if (kept.some((arm)=>arm.exposures < AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPOSURES)) {
+        return reading('too-early', null, [
+            AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_EXPOSURES
+        ]);
+    }
+    const exposures = kept.reduce((sum, arm)=>sum + arm.exposures, 0);
+    const conversions = kept.reduce((sum, arm)=>sum + arm.conversions, 0);
+    const pooled = exposures > 0 ? conversions / exposures : 0;
+    const approximates = kept.every((arm)=>arm.exposures * pooled >= AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPECTED && arm.exposures * (1 - pooled) >= AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPECTED);
+    if (!approximates) {
+        return reading('too-early', null, [
+            AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_CONVERSIONS
+        ]);
+    }
+    const rest = kept.slice(1);
+    let best = null;
+    let allBehind = true;
+    for (const arm of rest){
+        var _best_confidence;
+        if (arm.confidence === null) {
+            allBehind = false;
+            continue;
+        }
+        if (arm.confidence >= threshold && (!best || arm.confidence > ((_best_confidence = best.confidence) != null ? _best_confidence : 0))) {
+            best = arm;
+        }
+        if (arm.confidence > 100 - threshold) allBehind = false;
+    }
+    if (best) return reading('winner', best.id, []);
+    if (allBehind) return reading('control', kept[0].id, []);
+    return reading('inconclusive', null, [
+        AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_SPREAD
+    ]);
+}
+// ── The explanation ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+/** How long the sentence stating what happened may run. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_HEADLINE_MAX_CHARS = 280;
+/** How many sentences of detail an explanation may carry. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_POINTS = 4;
+/** How long one of them may run. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_POINT_MAX_CHARS = 280;
+/** How long the sentence saying what to do next may run. */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_MAX_CHARS = 280;
+/**
+ * Words an explanation may not use where the reading found no winner. A
+ * verdict of `too-early` or `inconclusive` describes an experiment that has
+ * not answered, and a sentence like "B is the clear winner" contradicts it
+ * however the rest of the paragraph is hedged.
+ */ const VERDICT_WORDS = /\b(?:winner|winning|won|wins|beat(?:s|en)?|out ?perform(?:s|ed|ing)?|clear(?:ly)? (?:ahead|better|best)|significant(?:ly)?|conclusive(?:ly)?|proven?|declare)\b/i;
+/**
+ * Telling someone to ship one variant is naming a winner whatever words it
+ * avoids, so a recommendation is refused on an undecided result too. This is
+ * the second belt; the first is that `winnerId` is the reading's and the
+ * answer cannot set it.
+ */ const RECOMMENDS = /\b(?:roll(?:ing)? (?:it |them |this |that )?out|ship(?:ping)?|go with|switch(?:ing)? to|adopt|pick|choose|keep) \b/i;
+/**
+ * What to do next where the result decided nothing. Code's sentence rather
+ * than the model's: "what next" is where an explanation that may not name a
+ * winner would name one anyway, and the honest answer is the same every time.
+ */ export const AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_TOO_EARLY = 'Leave the test running until every variant has been shown to enough visitors to compare.';
+export const AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_INCONCLUSIVE = 'These variants are too close to separate. Try a bigger change rather than a longer test.';
+export const AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_UNREADABLE = 'Open the test in A/B testing and check it has a first variant and at least one to compare against it.';
+/** The next step an undecided verdict carries; empty for a decided one, which the answer writes. */ export function aiExperimentNextStep(verdict) {
+    if (verdict === 'too-early') return AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_TOO_EARLY;
+    if (verdict === 'inconclusive') return AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_INCONCLUSIVE;
+    if (verdict === 'unreadable') return AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_UNREADABLE;
+    return '';
+}
+const CLAIM_UNSUPPORTED = 'claims-a-winner';
+const WINNER_UNKNOWN = 'names-an-arm-the-figures-do-not';
+const WINNER_UNSUPPORTED = 'names-a-winner-the-reading-did-not';
+const trim = (value, max)=>(typeof value === 'string' ? value : '').trim().slice(0, max);
+/**
+ * The model's explanation held to the reading (AGL-2914).
+ *
+ * The reading decided the verdict; this decides what may be said about it.
+ * Where the reading found no winner, the named arm is removed and any sentence
+ * that claims one is dropped — not softened, dropped, because a hedge in front
+ * of a claim still reads as the claim. Where it found one, the answer may only
+ * name THAT arm; another is removed as well.
+ *
+ * An explanation left with no headline is no explanation, and the step fails
+ * rather than showing an empty card.
+ */ export function checkAiExperimentExplanation(answer, reading) {
+    if (!answer) return null;
+    const decided = aiExperimentVerdictNamesWinner(reading.verdict);
+    const findings = [];
+    const named = trim(answer.winner, AI_EXPERIMENT_NAME_MAX_CHARS);
+    let winnerId = null;
+    if (named) {
+        const arm = reading.arms.find((entry)=>entry.id.toLowerCase() === named.toLowerCase());
+        if (!arm) findings.push(`${WINNER_UNKNOWN}:${named}`);
+        else if (!decided || arm.id !== reading.winnerId) {
+            findings.push(`${WINNER_UNSUPPORTED}:${arm.id}`);
+        } else winnerId = arm.id;
+    }
+    // The reading's own answer, never the model's: a decided verdict names its
+    // arm even where the answer forgot to.
+    if (decided && !winnerId) winnerId = reading.winnerId;
+    const allowed = (sentence)=>decided || !(VERDICT_WORDS.test(sentence) || RECOMMENDS.test(sentence));
+    const headline = trim(answer.headline, AI_EXPERIMENT_HEADLINE_MAX_CHARS);
+    if (!headline || !allowed(headline)) {
+        if (headline) findings.push(`${CLAIM_UNSUPPORTED}:headline`);
+        // An explanation whose one statement of what happened cannot be shown is
+        // no explanation; the step fails rather than showing an empty card.
+        return null;
+    }
+    const points = [];
+    for (const raw of Array.isArray(answer.points) ? answer.points : []){
+        if (points.length === AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_POINTS) break;
+        const point = trim(raw, AI_EXPERIMENT_POINT_MAX_CHARS);
+        if (!point) continue;
+        if (!allowed(point)) {
+            findings.push(`${CLAIM_UNSUPPORTED}:point`);
+            continue;
+        }
+        points.push(point);
+    }
+    // On an undecided result the next step is the verdict's own sentence, so the
+    // one field that invites a recommendation cannot carry a smuggled winner.
+    const answered = trim(answer.next, AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_MAX_CHARS);
+    const next = decided ? answered : aiExperimentNextStep(reading.verdict);
+    if (!decided && answered) findings.push(`${CLAIM_UNSUPPORTED}:next`);
+    return {
+        verdict: reading.verdict,
+        test: reading.test,
+        headline,
+        points,
+        winnerId,
+        next,
+        findings
+    };
+}
+// ── The variants ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+const MARKUP = /<\/?[a-z][^>]*>/i;
+const VARIANT_COPY_MISSING = 'variant-has-no-copy';
+const VARIANT_MARKUP = 'variant-carries-markup';
+const VARIANT_DUPLICATE = 'variant-repeats-another';
+const VARIANT_OFF_TARGET = 'variant-fills-another-targets-fields';
+/**
+ * The fields a target's variant fills. An email varies its subject line, its
+ * preheader and its body; a screen or a section varies the copy on it. A
+ * variant that fills the other target's fields is answering a different
+ * question, and those fields are dropped.
+ */ export function aiExperimentVariantFields(target) {
+    return target === 'email' ? [
+        'subject',
+        'preheader',
+        'body'
+    ] : [
+        'headline',
+        'body'
+    ];
+}
+/**
+ * A variants answer, held to what the A/B testing card can store (AGL-2914):
+ * between two and four variants, each with copy for the target under test,
+ * none repeating another's copy, and no markup anywhere — the card's fields
+ * are plain text and the besigner writes the elements.
+ *
+ * Returns the proposal with what could not be kept removed, or `null` when
+ * nothing usable is left.
+ */ export function checkAiExperimentVariants(answer, target) {
+    if (!answer) return null;
+    const fields = aiExperimentVariantFields(target);
+    const others = [
+        'headline',
+        'body',
+        'subject',
+        'preheader'
+    ].filter((field)=>!fields.includes(field));
+    const findings = [];
+    const variants = [];
+    const seen = new Set();
+    for (const raw of Array.isArray(answer.variants) ? answer.variants : []){
+        if (variants.length === AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_VARIANTS) break;
+        if (!raw) continue;
+        const variant = {
+            name: trim(raw.name, AI_EXPERIMENT_NAME_MAX_CHARS),
+            headline: '',
+            body: '',
+            subject: '',
+            preheader: '',
+            rationale: trim(raw.rationale, AI_EXPERIMENT_RATIONALE_MAX_CHARS)
+        };
+        if (others.some((field)=>typeof raw[field] === 'string' && raw[field].trim())) {
+            findings.push(VARIANT_OFF_TARGET);
+        }
+        for (const field of fields){
+            variant[field] = trim(raw[field], field === 'body' ? AI_EXPERIMENT_BODY_MAX_CHARS : AI_EXPERIMENT_LINE_MAX_CHARS);
+        }
+        const copy = fields.map((field)=>variant[field]).filter(Boolean);
+        if (!copy.length) {
+            findings.push(VARIANT_COPY_MISSING);
+            continue;
+        }
+        if (copy.some((value)=>MARKUP.test(value))) {
+            findings.push(VARIANT_MARKUP);
+            continue;
+        }
+        const key = JSON.stringify(copy).toLowerCase();
+        if (seen.has(key)) {
+            findings.push(VARIANT_DUPLICATE);
+            continue;
+        }
+        seen.add(key);
+        variants.push(_extends({}, variant, {
+            name: variant.name || `Variant ${variants.length + 1}`
+        }));
+    }
+    // One variant is not a test: the card refuses it and so does this.
+    if (variants.length < AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_VARIANTS) return null;
+    return {
+        proposal: {
+            goal: trim(answer.goal, AI_EXPERIMENT_RATIONALE_MAX_CHARS),
+            variants
+        },
+        findings
+    };
+}
+
+//# sourceMappingURL=ai-experiment.js.map

package/src/lib/model/ai-experiment.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../../../../../../../libs/plugins/ai/src/lib/model/ai-experiment.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * @license\n * Copyright 2026 Aglyn LLC\n *\n * Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the \"License\");\n * you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.\n * You may obtain a copy of the License at\n *\n *   http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0\n *\n * Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software\n * distributed under the License is distributed on an \"AS IS\" BASIS,\n * WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.\n * See the License for the specific language governing permissions and\n * limitations under the License.\n */\n\nimport type { PluginFigureTable } from '@aglyn/aglyn/plugin-manager/plugin-figures'\n\n/**\n * A/B tests by AI (AGL-2914): what an `experiment` job proposes, and what it\n * is allowed to say about a result.\n *\n * ## The test is not ours\n *\n * A/B testing is the marketing plugin's: it models the experiment document,\n * buckets visitors, counts exposures and conversions, compares a challenger\n * with the control and decides an auto-winner. None of that is restated here,\n * and none of it is imported — a plugin never imports another plugin. This\n * module is the AI layer over it, and it reaches the test through the two\n * generic seams core already publishes: the figure reader marketing registers\n * for its results, and the job inputs a console surface hands the door.\n *\n * ## Variants are proposed, never written\n *\n * A variant of a screen or a section is a screen VERSION, and a variant of an\n * email is that email's own copy: both belong to editors a person already\n * uses, and the experiment document belongs to marketing. So a variants\n * answer is a proposal, like a theme's or a listing's — words a person puts\n * into the A/B testing card, or does not. Nothing here writes an experiment,\n * starts one, or moves traffic.\n *\n * ## The verdict is code's, and the words are the model's\n *\n * `readAiExperimentResult` decides what a result supports BEFORE a model is\n * asked anything, from the arms' own counts and the confidence marketing\n * published beside them. The model is then asked to explain that verdict, and\n * `checkAiExperimentExplanation` holds it to it: an explanation may name a\n * winner only where the reading found one, and a winner it names anyway is\n * dropped rather than shown. A confident explanation of noise is worse than\n * no explanation, so the one thing the model is never trusted with is whether\n * there is something to explain.\n */\n\n/** What an `experiment` job was asked for. */\nexport type AiExperimentTask = 'variants' | 'explain'\n\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_TASKS: readonly AiExperimentTask[] = [\n  'variants',\n  'explain',\n]\n\n/** The task a job's inputs name, or `null` when they name none this step runs. */\nexport function aiExperimentTask(\n  inputs: Readonly<Record<string, unknown>> | null | undefined,\n): AiExperimentTask | null {\n  const value = inputs?.['task']\n  return typeof value === 'string' &&\n    (AI_EXPERIMENT_TASKS as readonly string[]).includes(value)\n    ? (value as AiExperimentTask)\n    : null\n}\n\n/**\n * What the experiment varies, in the words the A/B testing card uses. The job\n * carries it as an input because the card that opens the job knows it; it is\n * never read out of marketing's own document.\n */\nexport type AiExperimentTarget = 'screen' | 'section' | 'email'\n\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_TARGETS: readonly AiExperimentTarget[] = [\n  'screen',\n  'section',\n  'email',\n]\n\n/** The target a job's inputs name, or `null` when they name none. */\nexport function aiExperimentTarget(\n  inputs: Readonly<Record<string, unknown>> | null | undefined,\n): AiExperimentTarget | null {\n  const value = inputs?.['target']\n  return typeof value === 'string' &&\n    (AI_EXPERIMENT_TARGETS as readonly string[]).includes(value)\n    ? (value as AiExperimentTarget)\n    : null\n}\n\n/**\n * How many variants a proposal may hold, the cap the A/B testing card stores\n * and the page runner buckets against. Proposing a fifth would be proposing\n * something nothing can save.\n */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_VARIANTS = 4\n\n/** The fewest a test can be: a control and one challenger. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_VARIANTS = 2\n\n/** How long a variant's name may run, as the card's own field holds one. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_NAME_MAX_CHARS = 60\n\n/** How long one line of a variant's copy may run. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_LINE_MAX_CHARS = 200\n\n/** How long a variant's body may run. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_BODY_MAX_CHARS = 1_200\n\n/** How long the sentence saying what a variant changes may run. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_RATIONALE_MAX_CHARS = 200\n\n/** How much of what is under test is sent. Past this it is a document, not a subject. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_SUBJECT_MAX_CHARS = 4_000\n\n/**\n * One variant a proposal holds. `headline` and `body` are a screen's or a\n * section's copy; `subject` and `preheader` are an email's. A variant carries\n * the fields its target has and leaves the rest empty, so what a person pastes\n * into the card is what that card has a place for.\n */\nexport interface AiExperimentVariantProposal {\n  name: string\n  headline: string\n  body: string\n  subject: string\n  preheader: string\n  /** One sentence: what this variant changes and what it is testing. */\n  rationale: string\n}\n\n/** A variants answer as the step keeps it. */\nexport interface AiExperimentVariantsProposal {\n  /** What the variants are trying to move, in the person's own terms. */\n  goal: string\n  variants: AiExperimentVariantProposal[]\n}\n\n// ── The result ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * The reader marketing registers for its A/B test results, and the columns it\n * publishes. Named here rather than imported because the owner is another\n * plugin: a table that does not carry these columns is one this step cannot\n * read, and it says so instead of guessing.\n */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_READER = 'marketing.experiments'\n\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS = {\n  test: 'test',\n  variant: 'variant',\n  exposures: 'shown',\n  conversions: 'conversions',\n  rate: 'rate',\n  lift: 'lift',\n  confidence: 'confidence',\n} as const\n\n/**\n * One arm of a test, as the figures report it. `lift` and `confidence` are the\n * owner's own comparison against the control, as percentages, and are `null`\n * on the control row and wherever the owner could not compare.\n */\nexport interface AiExperimentArm {\n  id: string\n  /** The exposures the reader counted: visitors shown this arm. */\n  exposures: number\n  conversions: number\n  /** Conversions over exposures, as a percentage; `null` with no exposures. */\n  rate: number | null\n  /** Relative change against the control, as a percentage; `null` on the control. */\n  lift: number | null\n  /** The owner's confidence that this arm beats the control, as a percentage. */\n  confidence: number | null\n}\n\n/**\n * The exposures each arm needs before a comparison is read at all. Below this\n * a test is early rather than inconclusive, which is a different thing to tell\n * someone: one says wait, the other says stop.\n */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPOSURES = 200\n\n/**\n * The successes and failures each arm needs, at the pooled rate, for the\n * normal approximation behind a two-proportion test to be worth reading. The\n * textbook condition, and the reason a test with plenty of traffic and almost\n * no conversions is still too early to call.\n */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPECTED = 5\n\n/**\n * The confidence a single comparison is called at: the same 95% the A/B\n * testing card's auto-winner offers, so the explanation and the card agree\n * about what \"confident\" means when there is one challenger.\n */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_CONFIDENCE = 0.95\n\n/**\n * The confidence ONE comparison must clear when a test has `challengers` of\n * them (Šidák): testing three challengers at 95% each would call a winner by\n * chance about one time in seven, so the bar rises with the number of chances\n * taken. With one challenger this is exactly `AI_EXPERIMENT_CONFIDENCE`.\n */\nexport function aiExperimentConfidenceThreshold(challengers: number): number {\n  const count = Math.max(1, Math.floor(challengers))\n  return AI_EXPERIMENT_CONFIDENCE ** (1 / count)\n}\n\n/**\n * What a result supports:\n *\n * - `unreadable` — the figures do not describe a test with a control and a\n *   challenger, so there is nothing to read;\n * - `too-early` — an arm is under the exposure floor, or so little has\n *   converted that the comparison behind the confidence is not worth reading;\n * - `inconclusive` — enough has happened, and no arm is far enough from the\n *   control for the difference to be more than chance;\n * - `winner` — a challenger is ahead by more than chance explains;\n * - `control` — every challenger is behind by more than chance explains.\n */\nexport type AiExperimentVerdict =\n  | 'unreadable'\n  | 'too-early'\n  | 'inconclusive'\n  | 'winner'\n  | 'control'\n\n/** The verdicts that name an arm, and so let an explanation name one. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_DECIDED_VERDICTS: readonly AiExperimentVerdict[] = [\n  'winner',\n  'control',\n]\n\n/** Whether a verdict lets an explanation name a winner. */\nexport function aiExperimentVerdictNamesWinner(\n  verdict: AiExperimentVerdict,\n): boolean {\n  return AI_EXPERIMENT_DECIDED_VERDICTS.includes(verdict)\n}\n\nexport interface AiExperimentReading {\n  verdict: AiExperimentVerdict\n  /** The test's name as the figures label it. */\n  test: string\n  /** The control first, then its challengers in the order the figures gave them. */\n  arms: AiExperimentArm[]\n  /** The arm the verdict names, on `winner` and `control`; `null` otherwise. */\n  winnerId: string | null\n  /** The confidence one comparison had to clear, as a percentage. */\n  threshold: number\n  /**\n   * Why the verdict is not a winner, in the words the explanation is asked to\n   * use; empty where it is one. Never a number — the figures carry those.\n   */\n  reasons: string[]\n}\n\nconst num = (value: unknown): number =>\n  typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) ? value : 0\n\nconst maybe = (value: unknown): number | null =>\n  typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) ? value : null\n\nconst text = (value: unknown): string =>\n  typeof value === 'string' ? value.trim() : ''\n\n/** Whether a table is the A/B test results, by the columns it publishes. */\nexport function isAiExperimentTable(\n  table: Pick<PluginFigureTable, 'columns'> | null | undefined,\n): boolean {\n  const keys = new Set((table?.columns ?? []).map((column) => column.key))\n  return Object.values(AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS).every((key) =>\n    keys.has(key),\n  )\n}\n\n/** The tests a results table holds, by the name it labels each with. */\nexport function aiExperimentTestNames(\n  table: Pick<PluginFigureTable, 'columns' | 'rows'> | null | undefined,\n): string[] {\n  if (!isAiExperimentTable(table)) return []\n  const names: string[] = []\n  for (const row of table?.rows ?? []) {\n    const name = text(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.test])\n    if (name && !names.includes(name)) names.push(name)\n  }\n  return names\n}\n\n/**\n * One test's arms, in the order the table gave them — the control first, as\n * the reader's own note says it publishes them. An empty list where the table\n * is not the results, or holds no such test.\n */\nexport function readAiExperimentArms(\n  table: Pick<PluginFigureTable, 'columns' | 'rows'> | null | undefined,\n  test: string,\n): AiExperimentArm[] {\n  if (!isAiExperimentTable(table)) return []\n  const wanted = test.trim()\n  const arms: AiExperimentArm[] = []\n  for (const row of table?.rows ?? []) {\n    if (text(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.test]) !== wanted) continue\n    const id = text(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.variant])\n    if (!id) continue\n    arms.push({\n      id,\n      exposures: Math.max(0, num(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.exposures])),\n      conversions: Math.max(\n        0,\n        num(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.conversions]),\n      ),\n      rate: maybe(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.rate]),\n      lift: maybe(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.lift]),\n      confidence: maybe(row[AI_EXPERIMENT_FIGURE_COLUMNS.confidence]),\n    })\n    if (arms.length === AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_VARIANTS) break\n  }\n  return arms\n}\n\n/** What an arm is told to wait for, in words with no figure in them. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_EXPOSURES =\n  'at least one variant has not been shown to enough visitors yet'\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_CONVERSIONS =\n  'too little has converted yet for the comparison to mean anything'\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_SPREAD =\n  'no variant is far enough from the first one for the difference to be more than chance'\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_UNREADABLE =\n  'these figures do not describe a test with a first variant and something to compare against it'\n\n/**\n * What a test's figures support (AGL-2914), decided before a model is asked\n * anything.\n *\n * The first arm is the control, as the results reader publishes it. A verdict\n * is reached in this order, and the first answer wins:\n *\n * 1. fewer than two arms — `unreadable`;\n * 2. an arm under `AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPOSURES`, or one whose expected\n *    successes or failures at the pooled rate are under\n *    `AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPECTED` — `too-early`. The second is what stops a\n *    test with a hundred thousand visitors and four conversions reading as a\n *    decided one;\n * 3. a challenger whose confidence clears the multiplicity-corrected\n *    threshold — `winner`, the most confident of them;\n * 4. every challenger below `1 - threshold`, which is the same statement made\n *    about the control — `control`;\n * 5. anything else — `inconclusive`.\n *\n * A challenger the owner could not compare (`confidence` is `null`) can never\n * win, and leaves the control undecided too: not knowing is not evidence.\n */\nexport function readAiExperimentResult(\n  test: string,\n  arms: readonly AiExperimentArm[],\n): AiExperimentReading {\n  const kept = arms.slice(0, AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_VARIANTS)\n  const challengers = Math.max(1, kept.length - 1)\n  const threshold = aiExperimentConfidenceThreshold(challengers) * 100\n  const reading = (\n    verdict: AiExperimentVerdict,\n    winnerId: string | null,\n    reasons: string[],\n  ): AiExperimentReading => ({\n    verdict,\n    test: test.trim(),\n    arms: kept,\n    winnerId,\n    threshold: Math.round(threshold * 100) / 100,\n    reasons,\n  })\n\n  if (kept.length < AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_VARIANTS) {\n    return reading('unreadable', null, [AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_UNREADABLE])\n  }\n  if (kept.some((arm) => arm.exposures < AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPOSURES)) {\n    return reading('too-early', null, [AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_EXPOSURES])\n  }\n  const exposures = kept.reduce((sum, arm) => sum + arm.exposures, 0)\n  const conversions = kept.reduce((sum, arm) => sum + arm.conversions, 0)\n  const pooled = exposures > 0 ? conversions / exposures : 0\n  const approximates = kept.every(\n    (arm) =>\n      arm.exposures * pooled >= AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPECTED &&\n      arm.exposures * (1 - pooled) >= AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_EXPECTED,\n  )\n  if (!approximates) {\n    return reading('too-early', null, [AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_CONVERSIONS])\n  }\n\n  const rest = kept.slice(1)\n  let best: AiExperimentArm | null = null\n  let allBehind = true\n  for (const arm of rest) {\n    if (arm.confidence === null) {\n      allBehind = false\n      continue\n    }\n    if (\n      arm.confidence >= threshold &&\n      (!best || arm.confidence > (best.confidence ?? 0))\n    ) {\n      best = arm\n    }\n    if (arm.confidence > 100 - threshold) allBehind = false\n  }\n  if (best) return reading('winner', best.id, [])\n  if (allBehind) return reading('control', kept[0].id, [])\n  return reading('inconclusive', null, [AI_EXPERIMENT_REASON_SPREAD])\n}\n\n// ── The explanation ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** How long the sentence stating what happened may run. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_HEADLINE_MAX_CHARS = 280\n\n/** How many sentences of detail an explanation may carry. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_POINTS = 4\n\n/** How long one of them may run. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_POINT_MAX_CHARS = 280\n\n/** How long the sentence saying what to do next may run. */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_MAX_CHARS = 280\n\n/** An explanation as the model answers it. */\nexport interface AiExperimentExplanationAnswer {\n  headline: string\n  points: string[]\n  /** The variant the answer says won; empty when it names none. */\n  winner: string\n  next: string\n}\n\n/** An explanation as the step keeps it, after the reading has had its say. */\nexport interface AiExperimentExplanation {\n  verdict: AiExperimentVerdict\n  test: string\n  headline: string\n  points: string[]\n  /**\n   * The arm the explanation names, which is the arm the READING named: an\n   * answer that named another, or named one where the reading named none, has\n   * had it removed.\n   */\n  winnerId: string | null\n  next: string\n  /** What was dropped from the answer, for the log; never shown to a customer. */\n  findings: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Words an explanation may not use where the reading found no winner. A\n * verdict of `too-early` or `inconclusive` describes an experiment that has\n * not answered, and a sentence like \"B is the clear winner\" contradicts it\n * however the rest of the paragraph is hedged.\n */\nconst VERDICT_WORDS =\n  /\\b(?:winner|winning|won|wins|beat(?:s|en)?|out ?perform(?:s|ed|ing)?|clear(?:ly)? (?:ahead|better|best)|significant(?:ly)?|conclusive(?:ly)?|proven?|declare)\\b/i\n\n/**\n * Telling someone to ship one variant is naming a winner whatever words it\n * avoids, so a recommendation is refused on an undecided result too. This is\n * the second belt; the first is that `winnerId` is the reading's and the\n * answer cannot set it.\n */\nconst RECOMMENDS =\n  /\\b(?:roll(?:ing)? (?:it |them |this |that )?out|ship(?:ping)?|go with|switch(?:ing)? to|adopt|pick|choose|keep) \\b/i\n\n/**\n * What to do next where the result decided nothing. Code's sentence rather\n * than the model's: \"what next\" is where an explanation that may not name a\n * winner would name one anyway, and the honest answer is the same every time.\n */\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_TOO_EARLY =\n  'Leave the test running until every variant has been shown to enough visitors to compare.'\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_INCONCLUSIVE =\n  'These variants are too close to separate. Try a bigger change rather than a longer test.'\nexport const AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_UNREADABLE =\n  'Open the test in A/B testing and check it has a first variant and at least one to compare against it.'\n\n/** The next step an undecided verdict carries; empty for a decided one, which the answer writes. */\nexport function aiExperimentNextStep(verdict: AiExperimentVerdict): string {\n  if (verdict === 'too-early') return AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_TOO_EARLY\n  if (verdict === 'inconclusive') return AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_INCONCLUSIVE\n  if (verdict === 'unreadable') return AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_UNREADABLE\n  return ''\n}\n\nconst CLAIM_UNSUPPORTED = 'claims-a-winner'\nconst WINNER_UNKNOWN = 'names-an-arm-the-figures-do-not'\nconst WINNER_UNSUPPORTED = 'names-a-winner-the-reading-did-not'\n\nconst trim = (value: unknown, max: number): string =>\n  (typeof value === 'string' ? value : '').trim().slice(0, max)\n\n/**\n * The model's explanation held to the reading (AGL-2914).\n *\n * The reading decided the verdict; this decides what may be said about it.\n * Where the reading found no winner, the named arm is removed and any sentence\n * that claims one is dropped — not softened, dropped, because a hedge in front\n * of a claim still reads as the claim. Where it found one, the answer may only\n * name THAT arm; another is removed as well.\n *\n * An explanation left with no headline is no explanation, and the step fails\n * rather than showing an empty card.\n */\nexport function checkAiExperimentExplanation(\n  answer: AiExperimentExplanationAnswer | null,\n  reading: AiExperimentReading,\n): AiExperimentExplanation | null {\n  if (!answer) return null\n  const decided = aiExperimentVerdictNamesWinner(reading.verdict)\n  const findings: string[] = []\n\n  const named = trim(answer.winner, AI_EXPERIMENT_NAME_MAX_CHARS)\n  let winnerId: string | null = null\n  if (named) {\n    const arm = reading.arms.find(\n      (entry) => entry.id.toLowerCase() === named.toLowerCase(),\n    )\n    if (!arm) findings.push(`${WINNER_UNKNOWN}:${named}`)\n    else if (!decided || arm.id !== reading.winnerId) {\n      findings.push(`${WINNER_UNSUPPORTED}:${arm.id}`)\n    } else winnerId = arm.id\n  }\n  // The reading's own answer, never the model's: a decided verdict names its\n  // arm even where the answer forgot to.\n  if (decided && !winnerId) winnerId = reading.winnerId\n\n  const allowed = (sentence: string): boolean =>\n    decided || !(VERDICT_WORDS.test(sentence) || RECOMMENDS.test(sentence))\n\n  const headline = trim(answer.headline, AI_EXPERIMENT_HEADLINE_MAX_CHARS)\n  if (!headline || !allowed(headline)) {\n    if (headline) findings.push(`${CLAIM_UNSUPPORTED}:headline`)\n    // An explanation whose one statement of what happened cannot be shown is\n    // no explanation; the step fails rather than showing an empty card.\n    return null\n  }\n  const points: string[] = []\n  for (const raw of Array.isArray(answer.points) ? answer.points : []) {\n    if (points.length === AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_POINTS) break\n    const point = trim(raw, AI_EXPERIMENT_POINT_MAX_CHARS)\n    if (!point) continue\n    if (!allowed(point)) {\n      findings.push(`${CLAIM_UNSUPPORTED}:point`)\n      continue\n    }\n    points.push(point)\n  }\n  // On an undecided result the next step is the verdict's own sentence, so the\n  // one field that invites a recommendation cannot carry a smuggled winner.\n  const answered = trim(answer.next, AI_EXPERIMENT_NEXT_MAX_CHARS)\n  const next = decided ? answered : aiExperimentNextStep(reading.verdict)\n  if (!decided && answered) findings.push(`${CLAIM_UNSUPPORTED}:next`)\n  return {\n    verdict: reading.verdict,\n    test: reading.test,\n    headline,\n    points,\n    winnerId,\n    next,\n    findings,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── The variants ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nconst MARKUP = /<\\/?[a-z][^>]*>/i\n\nconst VARIANT_COPY_MISSING = 'variant-has-no-copy'\nconst VARIANT_MARKUP = 'variant-carries-markup'\nconst VARIANT_DUPLICATE = 'variant-repeats-another'\nconst VARIANT_OFF_TARGET = 'variant-fills-another-targets-fields'\n\n/**\n * The fields a target's variant fills. An email varies its subject line, its\n * preheader and its body; a screen or a section varies the copy on it. A\n * variant that fills the other target's fields is answering a different\n * question, and those fields are dropped.\n */\nexport function aiExperimentVariantFields(\n  target: AiExperimentTarget,\n): Array<keyof AiExperimentVariantProposal> {\n  return target === 'email'\n    ? ['subject', 'preheader', 'body']\n    : ['headline', 'body']\n}\n\n/**\n * A variants answer, held to what the A/B testing card can store (AGL-2914):\n * between two and four variants, each with copy for the target under test,\n * none repeating another's copy, and no markup anywhere — the card's fields\n * are plain text and the besigner writes the elements.\n *\n * Returns the proposal with what could not be kept removed, or `null` when\n * nothing usable is left.\n */\nexport function checkAiExperimentVariants(\n  answer: AiExperimentVariantsProposal | null,\n  target: AiExperimentTarget,\n): { proposal: AiExperimentVariantsProposal; findings: string[] } | null {\n  if (!answer) return null\n  const fields = aiExperimentVariantFields(target)\n  const others = (\n    ['headline', 'body', 'subject', 'preheader'] as Array<\n      keyof AiExperimentVariantProposal\n    >\n  ).filter((field) => !fields.includes(field))\n  const findings: string[] = []\n  const variants: AiExperimentVariantProposal[] = []\n  const seen = new Set<string>()\n\n  for (const raw of Array.isArray(answer.variants) ? answer.variants : []) {\n    if (variants.length === AI_EXPERIMENT_MAX_VARIANTS) break\n    if (!raw) continue\n    const variant: AiExperimentVariantProposal = {\n      name: trim(raw.name, AI_EXPERIMENT_NAME_MAX_CHARS),\n      headline: '',\n      body: '',\n      subject: '',\n      preheader: '',\n      rationale: trim(raw.rationale, AI_EXPERIMENT_RATIONALE_MAX_CHARS),\n    }\n    if (others.some((field) => typeof raw[field] === 'string' && raw[field].trim())) {\n      findings.push(VARIANT_OFF_TARGET)\n    }\n    for (const field of fields) {\n      variant[field] = trim(\n        raw[field],\n        field === 'body'\n          ? AI_EXPERIMENT_BODY_MAX_CHARS\n          : AI_EXPERIMENT_LINE_MAX_CHARS,\n      )\n    }\n    const copy = fields.map((field) => variant[field]).filter(Boolean)\n    if (!copy.length) {\n      findings.push(VARIANT_COPY_MISSING)\n      continue\n    }\n    if (copy.some((value) => MARKUP.test(value))) {\n      findings.push(VARIANT_MARKUP)\n      continue\n    }\n    const key = JSON.stringify(copy).toLowerCase()\n    if (seen.has(key)) {\n      findings.push(VARIANT_DUPLICATE)\n      continue\n    }\n    seen.add(key)\n    variants.push({\n      ...variant,\n      name: variant.name || `Variant ${variants.length + 1}`,\n    })\n  }\n  // One variant is not a test: the card refuses it and so does this.\n  if (variants.length < AI_EXPERIMENT_MIN_VARIANTS) return null\n  return {\n    proposal: {\n      goal: trim(answer.goal, AI_EXPERIMENT_RATIONALE_MAX_CHARS),\n      variants,\n    },\n    findings,\n  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