timeprice 0.6.0 → 0.8.0

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data/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -5,6 +5,105 @@ Format: [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.1.0/).
 
 ## [Unreleased]
 
+## [0.8.0] - 2026-05-17
+
+### Added
+- **Offline forecasting past the bundled data.** New `Timeprice::Forecast`
+  module: `CpiForecaster.project` and `FxForecaster.project` use a
+  trailing-window CAGR for the point estimate and ±1σ of year-over-year
+  changes for the band. Pure-Ruby, deterministic, no network calls or
+  stats dependencies. Defaults: 10-year window for CPI, 5-year for FX;
+  horizon caps 5y CPI / 2y FX (caps raise `horizon_exceeds_cap`
+  warnings, they don't block). `Forecast::Result` is a frozen value
+  object with `value`, `low`, `high`, `projection_method`, `sigma_pct`,
+  `last_known_date`, `target_date`, `horizon_months`, `basis_kind`,
+  `warnings`. `Timeprice.forecast(...)` is the public dispatcher.
+- `Timeprice.compare` accepts `forecast: true`; when the target date
+  is past the bundled CPI window the result carries a populated
+  `forecast: { basis_kind:, projection_method:, window_years:,
+  sigma_pct:, last_known_date:, horizon_months:, low:, high:,
+  warnings: }` block and `granularity: :forecast`.
+- CLI: `timeprice compare --forecast` prints the range, basis, and
+  caveats; `--json` exposes the same fields machine-readably.
+- `Timeprice::Compare.series_for(from:, to:, forecast:, amount:)` returns
+  annual sample points for the chart strip; forecast points carry
+  `:low` / `:high` for the ±1σ band.
+- `rake forecast:backtest` reports per-country MAPE for the bundled
+  data with assertions, so accuracy regressions are caught in CI.
+
+### Web calculator
+- Inline **📈 Forecast this date** affordance replaces the old form-level
+  checkbox. It only appears when the entered target year is past the
+  destination country's bundled CPI window. Clicking toggles
+  `state.form.forecast` and re-computes; the toggle round-trips through
+  the existing `&forecast=1` URL param.
+- New SVG strip beneath the result paints the measured polyline, the
+  dashed forecast line, a striped ±1σ fan, and tick labels — answers
+  "how did we get this number?" visually.
+- Amount input now carries locale thousands separators with a
+  caret-preserving live formatter; `parseAmount` strips them before
+  parsing.
+- From/To rows reflow to `label + currency (60%) + 'in' + date (40%)`
+  on a single line, all three form rows ending at the same right edge.
+- Footer meta line ("refreshed …, gem v…") now hydrates from
+  `Timeprice.metadata` at boot; the HTML carries placeholders only, so
+  releases no longer hand-edit the index.
+
+### Changed
+- `thor` is now a development dependency, not a runtime dependency. The
+  CLI (`exe/timeprice`) still works exactly as before, but users who only
+  `require "timeprice"` as a library no longer pull in thor and its
+  transitive stdlib (`set`, `digest`, `erb`, etc.). The ruby.wasm site
+  bundle drops ~200 KB raw / ~55 KB gzipped. CLI users need to run
+  `gem install thor` once; `bin/timeprice` prints a clear hint if it's
+  missing.
+
+### Breaking changes (planned for 1.0.0)
+- Public API methods (`inflation`, `exchange`, `compare`) now accept
+  `Timeprice::Date` in addition to strings. The accepted string formats
+  (`YYYY`, `YYYY-MM`, `YYYY-Qn`, `YYYY-MM-DD`) are unchanged. Unparseable
+  input now raises `Timeprice::InvalidDate` instead of a generic
+  `ArgumentError` at the boundary.
+- `Timeprice.metadata` returns a `MetadataSnapshot` value object. Hash
+  access (`meta[:countries]`), `to_h`, and `JSON.generate(meta)` keep
+  working — the wire shape is byte-identical. New code should treat the
+  result as a frozen `Data` instance.
+- `Timeprice::Point` gains `Point.parse(currency, date)` as the
+  canonical constructor; it routes the date through `Timeprice::Date`.
+- Implementation modules (`Timeprice::Inflation`, `::Exchange`,
+  `::Compare`, `::Metadata`) are marked `@api private`. They will be
+  relocated to `Timeprice::Internal::` in a future major release; depend
+  on the `Timeprice.<method>` facade.
+
+## [0.7.0] - 2026-05-15
+
+### Fixed
+- `Exchange.resolve_rate` no longer raises `DataNotFound` when one
+  triangulation leg falls back to the annual rate and the other resolves
+  on a daily date. Annual rates are year-wide, so they now adopt the
+  daily leg's effective date. Daily-vs-daily mismatches still raise.
+- `Compare.run` short-circuits CPI with `cpi_ratio: 1.0` when both
+  points share a date — there's no time-elapsed inflation to apply, and
+  the daily `YYYY-MM-DD` grain that this path produces would otherwise
+  blow up CPI's monthly-max lookup.
+- Web UI: `humaniseError` now recognises `DataNotFound`, FX
+  triangulation, and "No FX rate" patterns so a Ruby backtrace can no
+  longer surface in the result block.
+
+### Refactor (internal)
+- `Timeprice::Schema` owns the on-disk format definition; both the
+  reader (DataLoader) and the writer (data pipeline) reference it.
+- Data pipeline moved from `scripts/` to `tools/data_pipeline/`. Run via
+  `bundle exec rake data:refresh` and `bundle exec rake data:check_schema`.
+- Provider self-registration replaces the hand-written orchestration
+  list. Seven World Bank CPI subclasses collapsed into a factory call.
+- `Tools::DataPipeline::Series` value object replaces positional
+  `[monthly, annual]` / `[monthly, quarterly, annual]` returns.
+- Typed `Tools::DataPipeline::Error` hierarchy (HttpError, ShapeError,
+  ValidationError, SchemaError) replaces bare string raises.
+- Adopted the Weirich convention: `fail` for new exceptions, `raise` for
+  re-throws inside rescue blocks.
+
 ## [0.6.0] - 2026-05-12
 
 ### Added

data/README.md

@@ -6,6 +6,10 @@ Offline historical inflation & FX for Ruby — bundled data, no API keys, monthl
 [![Gem Version](https://img.shields.io/gem/v/timeprice.svg)](https://rubygems.org/gems/timeprice)
 [![Ruby](https://img.shields.io/badge/ruby-%3E%3D%203.2-ruby.svg)](https://www.ruby-lang.org/)
 
+**Try it without installing anything → [patrick204nqh.github.io/timeprice](https://patrick204nqh.github.io/timeprice/).** The page boots the gem in your browser via ruby.wasm — same code, same numbers, no backend.
+
+[![timeprice calculator screenshot](docs/img/calculator.png)](https://patrick204nqh.github.io/timeprice/)
+
 ## Why this exists
 
 Every other "historical inflation / FX" library wants you to wire up an API key, eat a rate
@@ -28,6 +32,14 @@ gem "timeprice", "~> 0.1"
 
 Requires Ruby >= 3.2.
 
+The CLI also needs the `thor` gem, kept out of timeprice's runtime
+dependencies so library users (`require "timeprice"`) and the ruby.wasm
+site bundle don't carry it:
+
+```bash
+gem install thor
+```
+
 ## CLI examples
 
 ```bash
@@ -48,6 +60,38 @@ $ timeprice compare 100 --from "2010 USD" --to "2024 VND"
     -> inflate x1.8970 VN -> 3,530,921 VND (2024, annual)
 ```
 
+### Forecasting (target dates past the bundled data)
+
+`compare` accepts target dates beyond the last bundled CPI / FX point when
+you pass `--forecast` (CLI) or `forecast: true` (Ruby). The forecast uses a
+trailing-window CAGR with a ±1σ band derived from historical year-over-year
+volatility — no network calls, no stats dependencies, fully deterministic.
+
+```bash
+$ timeprice compare 100 --from "2010 USD" --to "2030 VND" --forecast
+4,297,876 VND  in 2030  (forecast)
+  100.00 USD (2010)
+    -> fx @ 18,612.92     -> 1,861,292 VND (2010)
+    -> inflate x2.3091 VN -> 4,297,876 VND (2030, forecast)
+
+  range     4,133,277 VND  —  4,297,876 VND  —  4,467,270 VND
+            (low -1σ)        (most likely)      (high +1σ)
+
+  basis     trailing 10y CAGR · last data 2026-03
+            sigma ±1.0%/yr · horizon +46mo
+```
+
+Defaults: 10-year window for CPI, 5-year for FX. Horizon caps (5y CPI, 2y
+FX) don't block the forecast — they raise a `horizon_exceeds_cap` warning
+in the result. Run `bundle exec rake forecast:backtest` to see per-country
+MAPE for the bundled data.
+
+On the web calculator the forecast is opt-in per query: when you enter a
+target date past the bundled CPI window, an inline **📈 Forecast this
+date** button appears under the result. A small SVG strip below the result
+visualises the measured series and, when forecast is on, a striped fan band
+for the projected tail.
+
 The first line of each result is the answer — pipe through `head -1` if a
 script only needs the headline figure.
 
@@ -88,6 +132,33 @@ r.cpi_ratio  # => 1.897026680414...
 All result objects are `Data.define` value objects — they support `.to_h`, `==`, and
 pattern matching, so you can hand them to JSON, RSpec, or `case/in` without ceremony.
 
+### Introspection: `Timeprice.metadata`
+
+`Timeprice.metadata` returns a frozen, JSON-serialisable snapshot of the bundled
+dataset — version, refresh date, country list with per-granularity CPI ranges, currency
+list, and FX daily coverage. Use it to populate dropdowns or validate date inputs
+without hardcoding what the gem already knows.
+
+```ruby
+Timeprice.metadata
+# => {
+#   version: "0.8.0",
+#   generated_at: "2026-05-12",
+#   countries: [
+#     { code: "US", name: "United States", currency: "USD",
+#       granularities: ["monthly", "annual"],
+#       cpi: { monthly: { min: "1990-01", max: "2026-03" },
+#              annual:  { min: "1990",    max: "2024"    } } },
+#     ...
+#   ],
+#   currencies: [{ code: "USD", name: "US dollar" }, ...],
+#   fx: { base: "USD", daily_min: "1999-01-04", daily_max: "2026-05-11" }
+# }
+```
+
+The browser calculator linked at the top of this README is the canonical consumer —
+it reads metadata at boot so the UI never disagrees with the dataset.
+
 ## Supported countries, currencies, and data ranges
 
 Coverage is derived from the bundled `data/` files. Re-check with `timeprice sources`.
@@ -102,7 +173,7 @@ Coverage is derived from the bundled `data/` files. Re-check with `timeprice sou
 | Australia | AUD | ABS 6401.0 (quarterly) + World Bank `FP.CPI.TOTL` (annual baseline) | Quarterly + annual | 1948-Q3 → present |
 | Canada | CAD | Statistics Canada WDS (table 18-10-0004-01, vector `v41690973`) + World Bank annual baseline | Monthly + annual | 1914-01 → present |
 | Korea (Rep.) | KRW | IMF Data Portal CPI dataflow + World Bank annual baseline | Monthly + annual | 1990-01 → present |
-| China | CNY | World Bank `FP.CPI.TOTL` (annual primary) + IMF Data Portal CPI dataflow (monthly layer) | Monthly + annual | 1990-01 → present |
+| China | CNY | World Bank `FP.CPI.TOTL` (annual primary) + IMF Data Portal CPI dataflow (monthly layer) | Monthly + annual | 1993-01 → present |
 | Russia | RUB | World Bank `FP.CPI.TOTL` (annual primary) + IMF Data Portal CPI dataflow (monthly layer) | Monthly + annual | 1992-01 → present |
 
 **FX (USD base):** ECB reference rates via Frankfurter for **EUR / GBP / JPY / AUD /
@@ -287,7 +358,7 @@ Bundled data lives under `data/` in schema v3 and is self-describing:
   currencies sourced at annual resolution (today only VND). Used as the
   fallback tier when no daily rate covers the requested date.
 
-`scripts/check_schema_stability.rb` enforces the shape in CI.
+`tools/data_pipeline/schema_check.rb` enforces the shape in CI.
 
 ## Author
 

data/data/cpi/au.json

@@ -0,0 +1,419 @@
+{
+  "country": "AU",
+  "index": {
+    "base_period": "2010",
+    "rebased_at": null
+  },
+  "provenance": [
+    {
+      "from": "1948-Q3",
+      "provider": "abs",
+      "series": "quarterly",
+      "to": "2026-Q1"
+    },
+    {
+      "from": "1960",
+      "provider": "world_bank",
+      "series": "annual",
+      "to": "2024"
+    }
+  ],
+  "providers": [
+    {
+      "fetched_at": "2026-05-16",
+      "id": "world_bank",
+      "label": "World Bank FP.CPI.TOTL (annual, AU baseline)",
+      "status": "ok"
+    },
+    {
+      "fetched_at": "2026-05-16",
+      "id": "abs",
+      "label": "ABS 6401.0 Consumer Price Index (quarterly) + World Bank (annual baseline)",
+      "status": "ok"
+    }
+  ],
+  "schema_version": 4,
+  "series": {
+    "annual": {
+      "1960": 7.96045859451027,
+      "1961": 8.14256048564101,
+      "1962": 8.11654592976519,
+      "1963": 8.16857504151683,
+      "1964": 8.40270492027182,
+      "1965": 8.68886615903322,
+      "1966": 8.97502627366723,
+      "1967": 9.28720094417707,
+      "1968": 9.52133194705944,
+      "1969": 9.83350661756927,
+      "1970": 10.1716958439549,
+      "1971": 10.7960455596837,
+      "1972": 11.4464105807065,
+      "1973": 12.4869928157393,
+      "1974": 14.4120721988047,
+      "1975": 16.5972911452823,
+      "1976": 18.8085321418182,
+      "1977": 21.1238298630209,
+      "1978": 22.8147722478579,
+      "1979": 24.8959404650147,
+      "1980": 27.4193553826422,
+      "1981": 30.0208109702242,
+      "1982": 33.4287230358843,
+      "1983": 36.7845992450285,
+      "1984": 38.2414196200022,
+      "1985": 40.8168591528718,
+      "1986": 44.5109290849112,
+      "1987": 48.3090482474348,
+      "1988": 51.7950084772319,
+      "1989": 55.6971918586048,
+      "1990": 59.7814801287815,
+      "1991": 61.6805397100433,
+      "1992": 62.3048875522264,
+      "1993": 63.3975018966839,
+      "1994": 64.6462013281415,
+      "1995": 67.6378752538607,
+      "1996": 69.4068620557434,
+      "1997": 69.5629546369261,
+      "1998": 70.1612864243969,
+      "1999": 71.2018761536123,
+      "2000": 74.3756549681352,
+      "2001": 77.6534867602337,
+      "2002": 79.9687807343452,
+      "2003": 82.1540056761687,
+      "2004": 84.0790850592342,
+      "2005": 86.3423506710122,
+      "2006": 89.4120690137771,
+      "2007": 91.493237230934,
+      "2008": 95.4734650293526,
+      "2009": 97.1644149083721,
+      "2010": 99.9999999999999,
+      "2011": 103.30384784681,
+      "2012": 105.124870505209,
+      "2013": 107.700306290987,
+      "2014": 110.379813789798,
+      "2015": 112.044747614105,
+      "2016": 113.475551934366,
+      "2017": 115.686785436719,
+      "2018": 117.898022686164,
+      "2019": 119.797089761608,
+      "2020": 120.811652194838,
+      "2021": 124.271592622831,
+      "2022": 132.466181470806,
+      "2023": 139.880337389597,
+      "2024": 144.309741509281
+    },
+    "monthly": {},
+    "quarterly": {
+      "1948-Q3": 2.59,
+      "1948-Q4": 2.63,
+      "1949-Q1": 2.71,
+      "1949-Q2": 2.74,
+      "1949-Q3": 2.82,
+      "1949-Q4": 2.86,
+      "1950-Q1": 2.9,
+      "1950-Q2": 3.02,
+      "1950-Q3": 3.05,
+      "1950-Q4": 3.17,
+      "1951-Q1": 3.32,
+      "1951-Q2": 3.52,
+      "1951-Q3": 3.71,
+      "1951-Q4": 3.98,
+      "1952-Q1": 4.1,
+      "1952-Q2": 4.25,
+      "1952-Q3": 4.33,
+      "1952-Q4": 4.37,
+      "1953-Q1": 4.41,
+      "1953-Q2": 4.45,
+      "1953-Q3": 4.48,
+      "1953-Q4": 4.45,
+      "1954-Q1": 4.48,
+      "1954-Q2": 4.48,
+      "1954-Q3": 4.48,
+      "1954-Q4": 4.48,
+      "1955-Q1": 4.52,
+      "1955-Q2": 4.56,
+      "1955-Q3": 4.6,
+      "1955-Q4": 4.64,
+      "1956-Q1": 4.68,
+      "1956-Q2": 4.83,
+      "1956-Q3": 4.95,
+      "1956-Q4": 4.95,
+      "1957-Q1": 4.95,
+      "1957-Q2": 4.99,
+      "1957-Q3": 4.99,
+      "1957-Q4": 4.99,
+      "1958-Q1": 5.03,
+      "1958-Q2": 5.03,
+      "1958-Q3": 5.03,
+      "1958-Q4": 5.06,
+      "1959-Q1": 5.1,
+      "1959-Q2": 5.1,
+      "1959-Q3": 5.14,
+      "1959-Q4": 5.18,
+      "1960-Q1": 5.22,
+      "1960-Q2": 5.3,
+      "1960-Q3": 5.37,
+      "1960-Q4": 5.41,
+      "1961-Q1": 5.45,
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+}