sapor 0.3.6

data/Example-UnitedKingdom-Referendum.md

@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+Example: United Kingdom Referendum
+==================================
+
+The following file is a valid poll file for a British referendum poll. It is
+based on the results of a poll conducted between 4 and 6 March by ICM.
+    
+    Area=UK
+    Type=Referendum
+    ==
+    Remain=819
+    Leave=816
+    Other=368   
+
+The following call will use the poll file to run an analysis, provided it has
+been saved as 2016-04-06-ICM.poll.
+
+    sapor analyze 2016-04-06-ICM.poll
+
+For this file, the log will look like below.
+
+    2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Analyzing as a set of dichotomies...
+    2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice    MPF      CI(95%)     P(≥50%)
+    Leave    50.0%   33.3%– 66.7%  100.0%
+    Remain   50.0%   33.3%– 66.7%  100.0%
+    Other    16.7%    0.0%– 33.3%    0.0%
+    2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 33.3%.
+    2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Number of data points: 3.
+    2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice    MPF      CI(95%)     P(≥50%)
+    Leave    38.9%   33.3%– 44.4%    0.0%
+    Remain   38.9%   33.3%– 44.4%    0.0%
+    Other    16.7%   11.1%– 22.2%    0.0%
+    2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 11.1%.
+    2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Number of data points: 9.
+    2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice    MPF      CI(95%)     P(≥50%)
+    Leave    42.6%   37.0%– 44.4%    0.0%
+    Remain   42.6%   37.0%– 44.4%    0.0%
+    Other    16.7%   14.8%– 22.2%    0.0%
+    2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.70%.
+    2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Number of data points: 27.
+    2016-03-25 09:05:46 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice    MPF      CI(95%)     P(≥50%)
+    Remain   41.4%   38.3%– 43.2%    0.0%
+    Leave    40.1%   38.3%– 43.2%    0.0%
+    Other    17.9%   16.0%– 21.0%    0.0%
+    2016-03-25 09:05:46 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.23%.
+    2016-03-25 09:05:46 INFO: Number of data points: 81.
+    2016-03-25 09:05:48 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice    MPF      CI(95%)     P(≥50%)
+    Remain   40.9%   38.7%– 43.2%    0.0%
+    Leave    40.5%   38.3%– 43.2%    0.0%
+    Other    18.3%   16.5%– 20.2%    0.0%
+    2016-03-25 09:05:48 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
+    2016-03-25 09:05:48 INFO: Number of data points: 243.
+    2016-03-25 09:05:53 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice    MPF      CI(95%)     P(≥50%)
+    Remain   40.9%   38.7%– 43.1%    0.0%
+    Leave    40.7%   38.5%– 42.9%    0.0%
+    Other    18.3%   16.7%– 20.2%    0.0%
+    2016-03-25 09:05:53 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.137%.
+    2016-03-25 09:05:53 INFO: Number of data points: 729.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:13 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice    MPF      CI(95%)     P(≥50%)
+    Remain   40.9%   38.7%– 43.1%    0.0%
+    Leave    40.7%   38.6%– 42.9%    0.0%
+    Other    18.4%   16.7%– 20.2%    0.0%
+    2016-03-25 09:06:15 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.046%.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:15 INFO: Number of data points: 2,187.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:17 INFO: Analyzing as a polychotomy...
+    2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice  Result    MPRF    MPF      CI(95%)      P(>↓)
+    Remain   40.9%   17.8%   35.6%   35.6%– 35.6%  100.0%
+    Leave    40.7%   17.8%   35.5%   35.5%– 35.5%        
+    2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 100%.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: 1 simulations out of 1 data points, 1 / 55,460 of search space size (55,460).
+    2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice  Result    MPRF    MPF      CI(95%)      P(>↓)
+    Remain   40.9%   35.7%   35.7%   35.6%– 35.8%  100.0%
+    Leave    40.7%   35.5%   35.5%   35.5%– 35.5%        
+    2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 17.9%.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: 2 simulations out of 2 data points, 1 / 27,730 of search space size (55,460).
+    2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice  Result    MPRF    MPF      CI(95%)      P(>↓)
+    Remain   40.9%   36.0%   36.0%   35.7%– 36.0%  100.0%
+    Leave    40.7%   35.6%   35.6%   35.5%– 35.6%        
+    2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.300%.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: 4 simulations out of 4 data points, 1 / 13,865 of search space size (55,460).
+    2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice  Result    MPRF    MPF      CI(95%)      P(>↓)
+    Remain   40.9%   36.6%   36.6%   36.3%– 36.6%  100.0%
+    Leave    40.7%   35.8%   35.8%   35.7%– 35.8%        
+    2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.600%.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: 8 simulations out of 8 data points, 1 / 6,933 of search space size (55,460).
+    2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice  Result    MPRF    MPF      CI(95%)      P(>↓)
+    Remain   40.9%   37.7%   37.7%   37.4%– 37.7%  100.0%
+    Leave    40.7%   36.1%   36.1%   36.0%– 36.2%        
+    2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.10%.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: 16 simulations out of 16 data points, 1 / 3,466 of search space size (55,460).
+    2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice  Result    MPRF    MPF      CI(95%)      P(>↓)
+    Remain   40.9%   39.8%   39.8%   39.4%– 39.9%  100.0%
+    Leave    40.7%   36.9%   36.9%   36.7%– 36.9%        
+    2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.19%.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: 32 simulations out of 32 data points, 1 / 1,733 of search space size (55,460).
+    2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice  Result    MPRF    MPF      CI(95%)      P(>↓)
+    Remain   40.9%   43.3%   43.3%   41.9%– 44.1%  100.0%
+    Leave    40.7%   38.0%   38.0%   37.5%– 38.3%        
+    2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.50%.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: 64 simulations out of 64 data points, 1 / 867 of search space size (55,460).
+    2016-03-25 09:06:21 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice  Result    MPRF    MPF      CI(95%)      P(>↓)
+    Remain   40.9%   40.7%   40.9%   39.6%– 42.9%   53.6%
+    Leave    40.7%   40.8%   40.8%   38.1%– 41.2%        
+    2016-03-25 09:06:21 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.80%.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:21 INFO: 128 simulations out of 128 data points, 1 / 433 of search space size (55,460).
+    2016-03-25 09:06:22 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice  Result    MPRF    MPF      CI(95%)      P(>↓)
+    Remain   40.9%   40.7%   40.9%   39.0%– 42.9%   52.5%
+    Leave    40.7%   40.8%   40.8%   38.1%– 43.3%        
+    2016-03-25 09:06:22 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.80%.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:22 INFO: 256 simulations out of 256 data points, 1 / 217 of search space size (55,460).
+    2016-03-25 09:06:24 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
+    Choice  Result    MPRF    MPF      CI(95%)      P(>↓)
+    Remain   40.9%   40.7%   40.9%   39.0%– 42.9%   47.8%
+    Leave    40.7%   40.8%   40.8%   38.1%– 43.2%        
+    2016-03-25 09:06:24 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.046%.
+    2016-03-25 09:06:24 INFO: 512 simulations out of 512 data points, 1 / 108 of search space size (55,460).
+    2016-03-25 09:06:24 INFO: Done.

data/Examples.md

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+Examples
+========
+
+Election Polls
+--------------
+
+* [Catalonia](Example-Catalonia.md)
+* [Flanders](Example-Flanders.md)
+* [Greece](Example-Greece.md)
+* [Oslo](Example-Oslo.md)
+
+Referendum Polls
+----------------
+
+* [United Kingdom](Example-UnitedKingdom-Referendum.md)

data/LICENSE

@@ -0,0 +1,674 @@
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+  9. Acceptance Not Required for Having Copies.
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+  11. Patents.
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+  A "contributor" is a copyright holder who authorizes use under this
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+  If you convey a covered work, knowingly relying on a patent license,
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+  A patent license is "discriminatory" if it does not include within
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+or that patent license was granted, prior to 28 March 2007.
+
+  Nothing in this License shall be construed as excluding or limiting
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+
+  12. No Surrender of Others' Freedom.
+
+  If conditions are imposed on you (whether by court order, agreement or
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+
+  13. Use with the GNU Affero General Public License.
+
+  Notwithstanding any other provision of this License, you have
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+
+  14. Revised Versions of this License.
+
+  The Free Software Foundation may publish revised and/or new versions of
+the GNU General Public License from time to time.  Such new versions will
+be similar in spirit to the present version, but may differ in detail to
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+
+  Each version is given a distinguishing version number.  If the
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+
+  If the Program specifies that a proxy can decide which future
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+
+  Later license versions may give you additional or different
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+  15. Disclaimer of Warranty.
+
+  THERE IS NO WARRANTY FOR THE PROGRAM, TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY
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+  16. Limitation of Liability.
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+  IN NO EVENT UNLESS REQUIRED BY APPLICABLE LAW OR AGREED TO IN WRITING
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+
+  17. Interpretation of Sections 15 and 16.
+
+  If the disclaimer of warranty and limitation of liability provided
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+
+                     END OF TERMS AND CONDITIONS
+
+            How to Apply These Terms to Your New Programs
+
+  If you develop a new program, and you want it to be of the greatest
+possible use to the public, the best way to achieve this is to make it
+free software which everyone can redistribute and change under these terms.
+
+  To do so, attach the following notices to the program.  It is safest
+to attach them to the start of each source file to most effectively
+state the exclusion of warranty; and each file should have at least
+the "copyright" line and a pointer to where the full notice is found.
+
+    {one line to give the program's name and a brief idea of what it does.}
+    Copyright (C) {year}  {name of author}
+
+    This program is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
+    it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
+    the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
+    (at your option) any later version.
+
+    This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
+    but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
+    MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the
+    GNU General Public License for more details.
+
+    You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
+    along with this program.  If not, see {http://www.gnu.org/licenses/}.
+
+Also add information on how to contact you by electronic and paper mail.
+
+  If the program does terminal interaction, make it output a short
+notice like this when it starts in an interactive mode:
+
+    sapor  Copyright (C) 2013  Filip van Laenen
+    This program comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY; for details type `show w'.
+    This is free software, and you are welcome to redistribute it
+    under certain conditions; type `show c' for details.
+
+The hypothetical commands `show w' and `show c' should show the appropriate
+parts of the General Public License.  Of course, your program's commands
+might be different; for a GUI interface, you would use an "about box".
+
+  You should also get your employer (if you work as a programmer) or school,
+if any, to sign a "copyright disclaimer" for the program, if necessary.
+For more information on this, and how to apply and follow the GNU GPL, see
+{http://www.gnu.org/licenses/}.
+
+  The GNU General Public License does not permit incorporating your program
+into proprietary programs.  If your program is a subroutine library, you
+may consider it more useful to permit linking proprietary applications with
+the library.  If this is what you want to do, use the GNU Lesser General
+Public License instead of this License.  But first, please read
+{http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/why-not-lgpl.html}.