sapor 0.3.6

data/lib/sapor/regional_data/wallonia-2014.psv

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+# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
+# Copyright (C) 2020 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+#
+# This file is part of SAPoR.
+#
+# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the
+# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software
+# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later
+# version.
+#
+# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
+# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR
+# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the GNU General Public License for more details.
+#
+# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in /doc/gpl.txt
+#
+
+# Source: Official results by IBZ,
+#         downloaded on 21 July 2017,
+# URL: http://elections2014.belgium.be/fr/wal/results/results_start.html
+
+Brabant Wallon | MR              | 97,349
+Brabant Wallon | PS              | 45,723
+Brabant Wallon | cdH             | 28,314
+Brabant Wallon | Ecolo           | 27,555
+Brabant Wallon | DéFI            | 10,945
+Brabant Wallon | Parti Populaire |  9,563
+Brabant Wallon | PTB             |  6,592
+Brabant Wallon | La Droite       |  2,539
+Brabant Wallon | PIRATE          |  3,612
+Brabant Wallon | R.W.F.          |  1,277
+Brabant Wallon | NATION          |    867
+Brabant Wallon | NWA             |    453
+
+Hainaut | MR                   | 162,607
+Hainaut | DéFI                 |  16,843
+Hainaut | Ecolo                |  48,789
+Hainaut | PS                   | 279,646
+Hainaut | cdH                  |  93,321
+Hainaut | Parti Populaire      |  35,228
+Hainaut | PTB                  |  42,629
+Hainaut | MG                   |   2,419
+Hainaut | La Droite            |  11,076
+Hainaut | Debout les Belges    |  16,618
+Hainaut | R.W.F.               |   2,759
+Hainaut | R                    |     789
+Hainaut | Rassemblement Wallon |   3,298
+Hainaut | P+                   |   2,280
+Hainaut | NATION               |   6,923
+Hainaut | NWA                  |   1,804
+Hainaut | FW                   |   1,466
+Hainaut | Wallonie d’Abord     |   2,789
+Hainaut | Atomique             |     892
+
+Liège | PS                 | 185,907
+Liège | MR                 | 158,527
+Liège | cdH                |  81,364
+Liège | Ecolo              |  57,654
+Liège | PTB                |  51,064
+Liège | Parti Populaire    |  33,993
+Liège | DéFI               |  13,383
+Liège | La Droite          |   9,764
+Liège | Wallonie d’Abord   |   6,293
+Liège | PP PARTIPENSIONNES |   4,811
+Liège | VEGA               |   3,501
+Liège | ISLAM              |   3,169
+Liège | R.W.F.             |   2,426
+Liège | VLC                |   1,927
+Liège | NATION             |   1,234
+Liège | MG                 |   1,050
+Liège | FW                 |     596
+Liège | NWA                |     420
+Liège | R                  |     390
+
+Luxembourg | cdH                | 49,460
+Luxembourg | MR                 | 46,546
+Luxembourg | PS                 | 38,295
+Luxembourg | Ecolo              | 14,034
+Luxembourg | Parti Populaire    |  7,771
+Luxembourg | DéFI               |  3,270
+Luxembourg | PTB                |  2,848
+Luxembourg | MG                 |    960
+Luxembourg | R.W.F.             |    721
+Luxembourg | Rassemblement R    |    487
+Luxembourg | Union des Liberaux |    483
+
+Namur | PS              | 83,082
+Namur | MR              | 81,334
+Namur | cdH             | 58,036
+Namur | Ecolo           | 28,454
+Namur | PTB             | 14,749
+Namur | Parti Populaire | 13,025
+Namur | DéFI            |  7,389
+Namur | La Droite       |  5,059
+Namur | R.W.F.          |  2,548
+Namur | NATION          |  1,815
+Namur | R               |    710
+Namur | Rassemblement R |    595
+Namur | FW              |    557
+Namur | MG              |    529
+Namur | UdL             |    192

data/lib/sapor/regional_data/wallonia-20190526.psv

@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
+# Copyright (C) 2020 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+#
+# This file is part of SAPoR.
+#
+# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the
+# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software
+# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later
+# version.
+#
+# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
+# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR
+# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the GNU General Public License for more details.
+#
+# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in /doc/gpl.txt
+#
+
+# Source: Web page with the official results of the elections of 26 May 2019,
+#         downloaded on 23 November 2019,
+# URL: https://verkiezingen2019.belgium.be/nl/verkiezingen?el=WL
+
+Brabant wallon | Mouvement Réformateur        | 81,684
+Brabant wallon | Ecolo                        | 47,410
+Brabant wallon | Parti Socialiste             | 35,803
+Brabant wallon | Centre démocrate humaniste   | 20,216
+Brabant wallon | Parti du Travail de Belgique | 18,074
+Brabant wallon | DéFI                         | 15,196
+Brabant wallon | Parti Populaire              |  6,547
+Brabant wallon | Listes Destexhe              |  6,031
+Brabant wallon | DierAnimal                   |  3,675
+Brabant wallon | Collectif Citoyen            |  2,818
+Brabant wallon | Wallonie Insoumise           |  1,892
+Brabant wallon | Turquoise                    |    590
+
+Hainaut | Parti Socialiste             | 239,616
+Hainaut | Mouvement Réformateur        | 122,336
+Hainaut | Parti du Travail de Belgique | 115,073
+Hainaut | Ecolo                        |  83,938
+Hainaut | Centre démocrate humaniste   |  63,296
+Hainaut | DéFI                         |  26,907
+Hainaut | Parti Populaire              |  27,361
+Hainaut | Collectif Citoyen            |  10,545
+Hainaut | Listes Destexhe              |   8,900
+Hainaut | DierAnimal                   |   6,347
+Hainaut | AGIR                         |   5,967
+Hainaut | NATION                       |   4,759
+Hainaut | La Droite                    |   3,407
+Hainaut | Demain                       |   1,659
+Hainaut | Parti Communiste de Belgique |     944
+
+Liège | Parti Socialiste             | 154,893
+Liège | Mouvement Réformateur        | 124,103
+Liège | Ecolo                        |  93,921
+Liège | Parti du Travail de Belgique |  93,293
+Liège | Centre démocrate humaniste   |  56,816
+Liège | Parti Populaire              |  26,047
+Liège | DéFI                         |  23,144
+Liège | Listes Destexhe              |   9,955
+Liège | Collectif Citoyen            |   8,786
+Liège | Wallonie Insoumise           |   6,263
+Liège | DierAnimal                   |   5,393
+Liège | Demain                       |   2,784
+Liège | NATION                       |   2,070
+Liège | REFERENDUM                   |     621
+
+Luxembourg | Mouvement Réformateur        | 41,705
+Luxembourg | Centre démocrate humaniste   | 37,151
+Luxembourg | Parti Socialiste             | 32,317
+Luxembourg | Ecolo                        | 24,323
+Luxembourg | Parti du Travail de Belgique | 14,933
+Luxembourg | Parti Populaire              |  5,044
+Luxembourg | DéFI                         |  4,786
+Luxembourg | Collectif Citoyen            |  2,070
+Luxembourg | Listes Destexhe              |  1,549
+Luxembourg | NATION                       |  1,170
+
+Namur | Parti Socialiste             | 69,793
+Namur | Mouvement Réformateur        | 66,050
+Namur | Centre démocrate humaniste   | 46,296
+Namur | Ecolo                        | 45,039
+Namur | Parti du Travail de Belgique | 36,970
+Namur | DéFI                         | 14,186
+Namur | Parti Populaire              |  9,623
+Namur | Listes Destexhe              |  4,443
+Namur | DierAnimal                   |  3,002
+Namur | Collectif Citoyen            |  2,454
+Namur | NATION                       |  1,650
+Namur | AGIR                         |  1,179

data/lib/sapor/regional_data/wallonia.rb

@@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
+# encoding: utf-8
+#
+# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
+# Copyright (C) 2020 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+#
+# This file is part of SAPoR.
+#
+# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the
+# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software
+# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later
+# version.
+#
+# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
+# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR
+# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the GNU General Public License for more details.
+#
+# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in /doc/gpl.txt
+#
+
+module Sapor
+  #
+  # The regional data for Wallonia.
+  #
+  class Wallonia < Area
+    include Singleton
+    def area_code
+      'BE-WAL'
+    end
+
+    CDH_PARTY = 'Centre démocrate humaniste'.freeze
+    ECOLO_PARTY = 'Ecolo'.freeze
+    MR_PARTY = 'Mouvement Réformateur'.freeze
+    PS_PARTY = 'Parti Socialiste'.freeze
+    PTB_PARTY = 'Parti du Travail de Belgique'.freeze
+
+    def coalitions
+      [[CDH_PARTY, ECOLO_PARTY, MR_PARTY],
+       [CDH_PARTY, ECOLO_PARTY, PS_PARTY],
+       [CDH_PARTY, MR_PARTY],
+       [CDH_PARTY, PS_PARTY],
+       [CDH_PARTY, PS_PARTY, PTB_PARTY],
+       [ECOLO_PARTY, MR_PARTY],
+       [ECOLO_PARTY, MR_PARTY, PS_PARTY],
+       [ECOLO_PARTY, PS_PARTY],
+       [ECOLO_PARTY, PS_PARTY, PTB_PARTY],
+       [ECOLO_PARTY, PTB_PARTY],
+       [MR_PARTY, PS_PARTY],
+       [PS_PARTY, PTB_PARTY]]
+    end
+
+    def no_of_seats
+      SEAT_DISTRIBUTION.values.inject(:+)
+    end
+
+    def overall_election_results_of_2019
+      if @overall_election_results_of_2019.nil?
+        @overall_election_results_of_2019 = \
+          summarize_election_results(election_results_of_2019)
+      end
+      @overall_election_results_of_2019
+    end
+
+    def population_size
+      # Voter turnout on 26 May 2019
+      # Source: https://verkiezingen2019.belgium.be/nl/verkiezingen?el=WL
+      # Retrieved on 7 December 2019
+      2_034_813
+    end
+
+    def seats(simulation)
+      electoral_system.project(simulation)
+    end
+
+    def threshold
+      THRESHOLD
+    end
+
+    private
+
+    # Source: https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waals_Parlement
+    # Retrieved on 21 July 2017
+    SEAT_DISTRIBUTION = { 'Brabant wallon' => 8,
+                          'Hainaut' => 27,
+                          'Liège' => 23,
+                          'Luxembourg' => 6,
+                          'Namur' => 11 }.freeze
+
+    THRESHOLD = 0.05
+
+    def election_results_of_2019
+      if @election_results_of_2019.nil?
+        @election_results_of_2019 = load_election_results( \
+          'wallonia-20190526.psv'
+        )
+      end
+      @election_results_of_2019
+    end
+
+    def electoral_system
+      if @electoral_system.nil?
+        @electoral_system = MultiDistrictProportional.new( \
+          overall_election_results_of_2019,
+          election_results_of_2019,
+          SEAT_DISTRIBUTION,
+          DhondtDenominators,
+          THRESHOLD
+        )
+      end
+      @electoral_system
+    end
+  end
+end

data/lib/sapor/representatives_polychotomy.rb

@@ -0,0 +1,338 @@
+# encoding: utf-8
+#
+# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
+# Copyright (C) 2020 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
+#
+# This file is part of SAPoR.
+#
+# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the
+# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software
+# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later
+# version.
+#
+# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
+# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR
+# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the GNU General Public License for more details.
+#
+# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in /doc/gpl.txt
+#
+
+module Sapor
+  #
+  # Represents a polychotomy for the election of representatives.
+  #
+  class RepresentativesPolychotomy < Polychotomy
+    include NumberFormatter
+
+    def initialize(results, area, dichotomies, max_error, logger = nil)
+      @logger = logger
+      @coalitions = area.coalitions
+      super(results, area, dichotomies, max_error)
+      @seats = create_new_seats_distributions
+    end
+
+    def refine
+      no_of_new_simulations = 0
+      new_votes = create_new_votes_distributions
+      new_seats = create_new_seats_distributions
+      last_logger_info = 0
+      while @no_of_data_points == 0 || no_of_new_simulations == 0 ||
+            no_of_new_simulations < @no_of_simulations
+        no_of_new_simulations += try_next_data_point(new_votes, new_seats)
+        if @logger != nil && no_of_new_simulations > 0 && no_of_new_simulations % 131_072 == 0 && last_logger_info < no_of_new_simulations
+          @logger.info("#{with_thousands_separator(@no_of_simulations + no_of_new_simulations)} simulations done so far.")
+          last_logger_info = no_of_new_simulations
+        end
+      end
+      unless @no_of_simulations == 0
+        @error_estimate = calculate_error_estimate(new_votes)
+      end
+      @votes = merge_distributions(@votes, new_votes)
+      @seats = merge_distributions(@seats, new_seats)
+      @no_of_simulations += no_of_new_simulations
+    end
+
+    def try_next_data_point(new_votes, new_seats)
+      data_point = next_data_point
+      if data_point[OTHER] >= 0
+        simulate(new_votes, new_seats, data_point)
+        new_simulation = 1
+      else
+        new_simulation = 0
+      end
+      @no_of_data_points += 1
+      new_simulation
+    end
+
+    def report
+      choice_lengths = @choices.map(&:length)
+      choice_lengths << 6
+      max_choice_width = choice_lengths.max
+      max_seats_width = @area.no_of_seats.to_s.size
+      sorted_choices = sort_choices_by_result
+      choice_lines = sorted_choices.map.with_index do |choice, i|
+        next_choice = sorted_choices[i + 1]
+        create_choice_report_line(choice, next_choice, max_choice_width, max_seats_width)
+      end
+      coalition_lengths = @coalitions.map { |coalition| coalition_label(coalition).length }
+      coalition_lengths << 6
+      max_coalition_width = coalition_lengths.max
+      sorted_coalitions = sort_coalitions_by_result
+      coalition_lines = sorted_coalitions.map do |coalition|
+        create_coalition_report_line(coalition, max_coalition_width, max_seats_width)
+      end
+      'Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence' \
+      " intervals:\n" + 'Choice'.ljust(max_choice_width) +
+        "  Result    MPRF    MPF      CI(95%)      P(>↓)  Seats\n" +
+        choice_lines.join("\n") + "\n" +
+        'Coalition'.ljust(max_coalition_width) + '  Result    MPRF    MPF' \
+        "      CI(95%)     P(>50%)  Seats  P(>50%)\n" +
+        coalition_lines.join("\n")
+    end
+
+    def progress_report
+      space_size_ratio = space_size.to_f / @no_of_data_points
+      if space_size_ratio > 10
+        space_size_ratio = with_thousands_separator(space_size_ratio.round)
+      else
+        space_size_ratio = space_size_ratio.round(1)
+      end
+      "#{with_thousands_separator(@no_of_simulations)} simulations out of " \
+      "#{with_thousands_separator(@no_of_data_points)} data" \
+      " points, 1 / #{space_size_ratio} of search space size" \
+      " (#{with_thousands_separator(space_size)})."
+    end
+
+    def write_outputs(filename)
+      write_rankings(filename)
+      write_seats_confidence_intervals(filename)
+      write_seats_probabilities(filename)
+      write_coalitions_seats_confidence_intervals(filename)
+      write_coalitions_seats_probabilities(filename)
+      write_state_summary(filename)
+    end
+
+    private
+
+    def create_new_seats_distributions
+      seats = {}
+      @choices.each do |choice|
+        seats[choice] = CombinationsDistribution.new
+        Range.new(0, @area.no_of_seats).each do |value|
+          seats[choice][value] = 0.to_lf
+        end
+      end
+      @coalitions.each do |coalition|
+        seats[coalition] = CombinationsDistribution.new
+        Range.new(0, @area.no_of_seats).each do |value|
+          seats[coalition][value] = 0.to_lf
+        end
+      end
+      seats
+    end
+
+    def create_new_votes_distributions
+      votes = {}
+      @choices.each do |choice|
+        unless choice == OTHER
+          votes[choice] = CombinationsDistribution.new
+          @ranges[choice].each do |value|
+            votes[choice][value] = 0.to_lf
+          end
+        end
+      end
+      @coalitions.each do |coalition|
+        votes[coalition] = CombinationsDistribution.new
+      end
+      votes
+    end
+
+    def simulate(votes, seats, data_point)
+      combinations = 1.to_lf
+      data_point.each do |choice, value|
+        combinations *= BinomialsCache.binomial(value, @results[choice])
+      end
+      @combinations_sum += combinations
+      data_point.each do |choice, value|
+        votes[choice][value] += combinations unless choice == OTHER
+      end
+      @choices.each do |a|
+        @choices.each do |b|
+          if data_point[a] > data_point[b]
+            @comparisons[a + '>' + b] += combinations
+          end
+        end
+      end
+      @choices.sort { |a, b| data_point[b] <=> data_point[a] }.each_with_index do |choice, i|
+        @rankings[choice + '@' + i.to_s] += combinations
+      end
+      @coalitions.each do |coalition|
+        coalition_value = coalition.map { |choice| data_point.key?(choice) ? data_point[choice] : 0 }.inject(:+)
+        if votes[coalition][coalition_value].nil?
+          votes[coalition][coalition_value] = combinations
+        else
+          votes[coalition][coalition_value] += combinations
+        end
+      end
+      projection = @area.seats(data_point)
+      @choices.each do |choice|
+        if projection.key?(choice)
+          seats[choice][projection[choice]] += combinations
+        else
+          seats[choice][0] += combinations
+        end
+      end
+      @coalitions.each do |coalition|
+        coalition_value = coalition.map { |choice| projection.key?(choice) ? projection[choice] : 0 }.inject(:+)
+        if seats[coalition][coalition_value].nil?
+          seats[coalition][coalition_value] = combinations
+        else
+          seats[coalition][coalition_value] += combinations
+        end
+      end
+    end
+
+    def calculate_error_estimate(new_simulations)
+      error_estimate = 0
+      @choices.each do |choice|
+        unless choice == OTHER
+          mpv_new = calculate_most_probable_fraction(choice, new_simulations)
+          mpv_old = calculate_most_probable_fraction(choice, @votes)
+          delta = (mpv_new - mpv_old).abs
+          error_estimate = [error_estimate, delta].max
+        end
+      end
+      error_estimate
+    end
+
+    def merge_distributions(distributions1, distributions2)
+      merged_distributions = {}
+      @choices.each do |choice|
+        unless choice == OTHER
+          merged_distributions[choice] = distributions1[choice] + \
+                                         distributions2[choice]
+        end
+      end
+      @coalitions.each do |coalition|
+        merged_distributions[coalition] = distributions1[coalition] + \
+                                          distributions2[coalition]
+      end
+      merged_distributions
+    end
+
+    def coalition_label(coalition)
+      coalition.sort.join(' + ')
+    end
+
+    def sort_coalitions_by_result
+      @coalitions.sort do |a, b|
+        comparison = result(b) <=> result(a)
+        if comparison == 0
+          coalition_label(a) <=> coalition_label(b)
+        else
+          comparison
+        end
+      end
+    end
+
+    def coalition_result(coalition)
+      coalition.map { |choice| @results[choice].to_f }.inject(:+) / @results.values.inject(:+)
+    end
+
+    def create_choice_report_line(choice, next_choice, max_choice_width, max_seats_width)
+      ci_values = @votes[choice].confidence_interval(0.95)
+      confidence_interval = ci_values.map { |x| x.to_f / @area.population_size }
+      ci_seats = @seats[choice].confidence_interval(0.95)
+      choice.ljust(max_choice_width) + '  ' + \
+        six_char_percentage(result(choice)) + '  ' + \
+        six_char_percentage(most_probable_rounded_fraction(choice)) + '  ' + \
+        six_char_percentage(most_probable_fraction(choice)) + '  ' + \
+        six_char_percentage(confidence_interval.first) + '–' + \
+        six_char_percentage(confidence_interval.last) + '  ' + \
+        (next_choice.nil? ? '      ' : six_char_percentage(larger_than(choice, next_choice))) + '  ' + \
+        (max_seats_width == 1 ? ' ' : '') + \
+        ci_seats.first.to_s.rjust(max_seats_width) + '–' + \
+        ci_seats.last.to_s.rjust(max_seats_width)
+    end
+
+    def create_coalition_report_line(coalition, max_coalition_width, max_seats_width)
+      ci_values = @votes[coalition].confidence_interval(0.95)
+      majority_votes_probability = @votes[coalition].threshold_probability(0.5, @area.population_size)
+      confidence_interval = ci_values.map { |x| x.to_f / @area.population_size }
+      ci_seats = @seats[coalition].confidence_interval(0.95)
+      seats_majority = 1 + @area.no_of_seats / 2
+      majority_seats_probability = @seats[coalition].value_threshold_probability(seats_majority)
+      coalition_label(coalition).ljust(max_coalition_width) + '  ' + \
+        six_char_percentage(coalition_result(coalition)) + '  ' + \
+        six_char_percentage(most_probable_rounded_fraction(coalition)) + '  ' + \
+        six_char_percentage(most_probable_fraction(coalition)) + '  ' + \
+        six_char_percentage(confidence_interval.first) + '–' + \
+        six_char_percentage(confidence_interval.last) + '   ' + \
+        six_char_percentage(majority_votes_probability) + '  ' + \
+        (max_seats_width == 1 ? ' ' : '') + \
+        ci_seats.first.to_s.rjust(max_seats_width) + '–' + \
+        ci_seats.last.to_s.rjust(max_seats_width) + '    ' + \
+        six_char_percentage(majority_seats_probability)
+    end
+    
+    def write_seats_confidence_intervals(filename)
+      ci_filename = filename.gsub('.poll', '-polychotomy-seats-confidence-intervals.psv')
+      File.open(ci_filename, 'w') do |file| 
+        file.puts('Choice | CI(80%) Bottom | CI(80%) Top | CI(90%) Bottom | CI(90%) Top | CI(95%) Bottom | CI(95%) Top | CI(99%) Bottom | CI(99%) Top') 
+        @choices.each do | choice |
+          unless choice == OTHER
+            ci80 = @seats[choice].confidence_interval(0.8)
+            ci90 = @seats[choice].confidence_interval(0.9)
+            ci95 = @seats[choice].confidence_interval(0.95)
+            ci99 = @seats[choice].confidence_interval(0.99)
+            file.puts(choice + ' | ' + ci80.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                      ci80.last.to_s + ' | ' + ci90.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                      ci90.last.to_s + ' | ' + ci95.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                      ci95.last.to_s + ' | ' + ci99.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                      ci99.last.to_s)
+          end
+        end
+      end
+    end    
+
+    def write_seats_probabilities(filename)
+      ci_filename = filename.gsub('.poll', '-polychotomy-seats-probabilities.psv')
+      File.open(ci_filename, 'w') do |file| 
+        file.puts('Choice | ' + Range.new(0, @area.no_of_seats).to_a.join(' | '))
+        @choices.each do | choice |
+          unless choice == OTHER
+            file.puts(choice + ' | ' + @seats[choice].probabilities(Range.new(0, @area.no_of_seats).to_a).join(' | '))
+          end
+        end
+      end
+    end    
+
+    def write_coalitions_seats_confidence_intervals(filename)
+      ci_filename = filename.gsub('.poll', '-polychotomy-coalitions-seats-confidence-intervals.psv')
+      File.open(ci_filename, 'w') do |file| 
+        file.puts('Coalition | CI(80%) Bottom | CI(80%) Top | CI(90%) Bottom | CI(90%) Top | CI(95%) Bottom | CI(95%) Top | CI(99%) Bottom | CI(99%) Top') 
+        @coalitions.each do | coalition |
+          ci80 = @seats[coalition].confidence_interval(0.8)
+          ci90 = @seats[coalition].confidence_interval(0.9)
+          ci95 = @seats[coalition].confidence_interval(0.95)
+          ci99 = @seats[coalition].confidence_interval(0.99)
+          file.puts(coalition_label(coalition) + ' | ' + ci80.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                    ci80.last.to_s + ' | ' + ci90.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                    ci90.last.to_s + ' | ' + ci95.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                    ci95.last.to_s + ' | ' + ci99.first.to_s + ' | ' + \
+                    ci99.last.to_s)
+        end
+      end
+    end    
+
+    def write_coalitions_seats_probabilities(filename)
+      ci_filename = filename.gsub('.poll', '-polychotomy-coalitions-seats-probabilities.psv')
+      File.open(ci_filename, 'w') do |file| 
+        file.puts('Coalition | ' + Range.new(0, @area.no_of_seats).to_a.join(' | '))
+        @coalitions.each do | coalition |
+          file.puts(coalition_label(coalition) + ' | ' + @seats[coalition].probabilities(Range.new(0, @area.no_of_seats).to_a).join(' | '))
+        end
+      end
+    end
+  end
+end