sapor 0.1b1
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- checksums.yaml +7 -0
- data/Area Class Diagram.dia +0 -0
- data/Area Class Diagram.png +0 -0
- data/Class Diagram.dia +0 -0
- data/Class Diagram.png +0 -0
- data/Examples.md +361 -0
- data/LICENSE +674 -0
- data/README.md +70 -0
- data/Rakefile +18 -0
- data/Technical Documentation.md +14 -0
- data/bin/create_installation_package.sh +49 -0
- data/bin/install.sh +45 -0
- data/bin/sapor.rb +22 -0
- data/bin/sapor.sh +105 -0
- data/lib/sapor.rb +44 -0
- data/lib/sapor/binomials_cache.rb +45 -0
- data/lib/sapor/combinations_distribution.rb +180 -0
- data/lib/sapor/dichotomies.rb +98 -0
- data/lib/sapor/dichotomy.rb +138 -0
- data/lib/sapor/first_past_the_post.rb +78 -0
- data/lib/sapor/leveled_proportional.rb +64 -0
- data/lib/sapor/log4r_logger.rb +49 -0
- data/lib/sapor/log_facade.rb +40 -0
- data/lib/sapor/number_formatter.rb +45 -0
- data/lib/sapor/poll.rb +137 -0
- data/lib/sapor/polychotomy.rb +359 -0
- data/lib/sapor/proportional.rb +128 -0
- data/lib/sapor/pseudorandom_multirange_enumerator.rb +87 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/area.rb +80 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2012-2015.psv +100 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia-2012.psv +87 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/catalonia.rb +90 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/norway.rb +408 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/united_kingdom.rb +1075 -0
- data/lib/sapor/regional_data/utopia.rb +66 -0
- data/sapor.gemspec +35 -0
- data/spec/integration/area_spec.rb +28 -0
- data/spec/integration/poll_spec.rb +107 -0
- data/spec/integration/sample.poll +7 -0
- data/spec/spec_helper.rb +31 -0
- data/spec/unit/area_spec.rb +115 -0
- data/spec/unit/binomials_cache_spec.rb +34 -0
- data/spec/unit/catalonia_spec.rb +82 -0
- data/spec/unit/combinations_distribution_spec.rb +241 -0
- data/spec/unit/denominators_spec.rb +34 -0
- data/spec/unit/dichotomies_spec.rb +154 -0
- data/spec/unit/dichotomy_spec.rb +320 -0
- data/spec/unit/first_past_the_post_spec.rb +53 -0
- data/spec/unit/leveled_proportional_spec.rb +51 -0
- data/spec/unit/norway_spec.rb +47 -0
- data/spec/unit/number_formatter_spec.rb +173 -0
- data/spec/unit/poll_spec.rb +105 -0
- data/spec/unit/polychotomy_spec.rb +332 -0
- data/spec/unit/proportional_spec.rb +86 -0
- data/spec/unit/pseudorandom_multirange_enumerator_spec.rb +82 -0
- metadata +119 -0
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# encoding: utf-8
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#
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# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
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# Copyright (C) 2014 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
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#
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# This file is part of SAPoR.
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#
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# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the
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# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software
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# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later
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# version.
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#
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# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
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# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR
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# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the GNU General Public License for more details.
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#
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# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in /doc/gpl.txt
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#
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module Sapor
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#
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# Module to format numbers.
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#
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module NumberFormatter
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def three_digits_percentage(number)
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if number >= 0.9995 || number < 0.000005
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sprintf('%.0f', number * 100) + '%'
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elsif number >= 0.09995
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sprintf('%.1f', number * 100) + '%'
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elsif number >= 0.009995
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sprintf('%.2f', number * 100) + '%'
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else
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sprintf('%.3f', number * 100) + '%'
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end
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end
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def six_char_percentage(number)
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sprintf('%5.1f', number * 100) + '%'
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end
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def with_thousands_separator(integer)
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integer.to_s.reverse.gsub(/...(?=.)/, '\&,').reverse
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end
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end
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end
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data/lib/sapor/poll.rb
ADDED
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# encoding: utf-8
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#
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# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
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# Copyright (C) 2014 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
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#
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# This file is part of SAPoR.
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#
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# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the
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# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software
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# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later
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# version.
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#
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# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
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# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR
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# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the GNU General Public License for more details.
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#
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# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in /doc/gpl.txt
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#
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module Sapor
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OTHER = 'Other'
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#
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# Represents a poll.
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#
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class Poll
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include NumberFormatter
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attr_reader :area, :logger
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AREA_KEY = 'Area'
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AREAS_MAP = {}
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[Catalonia.instance, Norway.instance, UnitedKingdom.instance, Utopia.instance].map { |area| AREAS_MAP[area.area_code] = area }
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def initialize(metadata, results)
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@logger = LogFacade.create_logger
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@area = lookup_area(metadata.delete(AREA_KEY))
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@results = interpret(results)
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end
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def analyze(max_error = 0.001)
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analyze_as_dichotomies(max_error)
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analyze_as_polychotomy(max_error)
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@logger.info('Done.')
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end
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def confidence_interval(choice, level = 0.95)
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@analysis.confidence_interval(choice, level) unless @analysis.nil?
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end
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def most_probable_fraction(choice)
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@analysis.most_probable_fraction(choice) unless @analysis.nil?
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end
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def most_probable_value(choice)
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@analysis.most_probable_value(choice) unless @analysis.nil?
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end
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def result(choice)
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@results[choice]
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end
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private
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def self.line_to_hash(line, current, results)
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if line.chomp.eql?('==')
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current = results
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else
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elements = line.chomp.split('=')
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current[elements.first] = elements.last
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end
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current
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end
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def self.as_hashes(lines)
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metadata = {}
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results = {}
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current = metadata
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lines.each do |line|
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current = line_to_hash(line, current, results)
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end
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[metadata, results]
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end
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def self.from_lines(lines)
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hashes = as_hashes(lines)
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metadata = hashes.first
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results = hashes.last
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new(metadata, results)
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end
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def self.from_file(filename)
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from_lines(File.open(filename))
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end
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def interpret(results)
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interpreted = {}
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results.each_pair do |key, value|
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interpreted[key] = value.to_i
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end
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interpreted
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end
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def lookup_area(area_code)
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AREAS_MAP[area_code]
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end
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def population_size
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@area.population_size
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end
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def threshold
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@area.threshold
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end
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def analyze_until_convergence(max_error)
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while @analysis.error_estimate > max_error
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@analysis.refine
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@logger.info(@analysis.report)
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@logger.info('Error estimate: ε ≤' \
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" #{three_digits_percentage(@analysis.error_estimate)}.")
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@logger.info(@analysis.progress_report)
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end
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end
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def analyze_as_dichotomies(max_error)
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@logger.info('Analyzing as a set of dichotomies...')
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@analysis = Dichotomies.new(@results, population_size, threshold)
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analyze_until_convergence(max_error)
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end
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def analyze_as_polychotomy(max_error)
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@logger.info('Analyzing as a polychotomy...')
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@analysis = Polychotomy.new(@results, @area, @analysis, max_error)
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analyze_until_convergence(max_error)
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end
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end
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end
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# encoding: utf-8
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2
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#
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3
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# Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)
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4
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# Copyright (C) 2014 Filip van Laenen <f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org>
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5
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#
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6
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# This file is part of SAPoR.
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7
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#
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8
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# SAPoR is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the
|
9
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# terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software
|
10
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# Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later
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# version.
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12
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#
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# SAPoR is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
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# WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR
|
15
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# A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the GNU General Public License for more details.
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#
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# You can find a copy of the GNU General Public License in /doc/gpl.txt
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#
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require 'prime'
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module Sapor
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#
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# Represents a polychotomy.
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#
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class Polychotomy
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include NumberFormatter
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attr_reader :error_estimate, :no_of_data_points, :no_of_simulations
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def initialize(results, area, dichotomies, max_error)
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@results = results
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@area = area
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@choices = results.keys
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@coalitions = area.coalitions
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@ranges = extract_ranges_from_dichotomies(dichotomies, max_error)
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range_sizes = @ranges.values.map(&:size)
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@enum = PseudoRandomMultiRangeEnumerator.new(range_sizes).each
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@no_of_simulations = 0
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@no_of_data_points = 0
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@distributions = create_new_votes_distributions # TODO: Rename to @votes
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@seats = create_new_seats_distributions
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@comparisons = {}
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@choices.each do |a|
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@choices.each do |b|
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@comparisons[a + '>' + b] = 0.to_lf
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end
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end
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@combinations_sum = 0.to_lf
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@error_estimate = 1.0
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end
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def range(choice)
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@ranges[choice]
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end
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def space_size
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@enum.size
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end
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def most_probable_value(key)
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if @no_of_simulations == 0
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nil
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else
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@distributions[key].most_probable_value
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end
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end
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def calculate_most_probable_fraction(key, distributions)
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distributions[key].most_probable_value.to_f / @area.population_size
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end
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def most_probable_fraction(key)
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if @no_of_simulations == 0
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nil
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else
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calculate_most_probable_fraction(key, @distributions)
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end
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end
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def refine
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no_of_new_simulations = 0
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new_votes = create_new_votes_distributions
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new_seats = create_new_seats_distributions
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while @no_of_data_points == 0 || no_of_new_simulations == 0 ||
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no_of_new_simulations < @no_of_simulations
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no_of_new_simulations += try_next_data_point(new_votes, new_seats)
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end
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unless @no_of_simulations == 0
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@error_estimate = calculate_error_estimate(new_votes)
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end
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@distributions = merge_distributions(@distributions, new_votes)
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@seats = merge_distributions(@seats, new_seats)
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@no_of_simulations += no_of_new_simulations
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end
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def try_next_data_point(new_votes, new_seats)
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data_point = next_data_point
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if data_point[OTHER] >= 0
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simulate(new_votes, new_seats, data_point)
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new_simulation = 1
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else
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new_simulation = 0
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end
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@no_of_data_points += 1
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new_simulation
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end
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def report
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choice_lengths = @choices.map(&:length)
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choice_lengths << 6
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max_choice_width = choice_lengths.max
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max_seats_width = @area.no_of_seats.to_s.size
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sorted_choices = sort_choices_by_result
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choice_lines = sorted_choices.map.with_index do |choice, i|
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next_choice = sorted_choices[i + 1]
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create_choice_report_line(choice, next_choice, max_choice_width, max_seats_width)
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118
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end
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coalition_lengths = @coalitions.map { |coalition| coalition_label(coalition).length }
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coalition_lengths << 6
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max_coalition_width = coalition_lengths.max
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sorted_coalitions = sort_coalitions_by_result
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coalition_lines = sorted_coalitions.map do |coalition|
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create_coalition_report_line(coalition, max_coalition_width, max_seats_width)
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end
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'Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence' \
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" intervals:\n" + 'Choice'.ljust(max_choice_width) +
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" Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats\n" +
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choice_lines.join("\n") + "\n" +
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'Coalition'.ljust(max_coalition_width) + " Result MPRF MPF" +
|
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" CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)\n" +
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coalition_lines.join("\n")
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end
|
134
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|
135
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def progress_report
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136
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space_size_ratio = space_size / @no_of_data_points
|
137
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if space_size_ratio > 10
|
138
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space_size_ratio = with_thousands_separator(space_size_ratio.round)
|
139
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else
|
140
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space_size_ratio = space_size_ratio.round(1)
|
141
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end
|
142
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"#{with_thousands_separator(@no_of_simulations)} simulations out of " \
|
143
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"#{with_thousands_separator(@no_of_data_points)} data" \
|
144
|
+
" points, 1 / #{space_size_ratio} of search space size" \
|
145
|
+
" (#{with_thousands_separator(space_size)})."
|
146
|
+
end
|
147
|
+
|
148
|
+
private
|
149
|
+
|
150
|
+
def extract_ranges_from_dichotomies(dichotomies, max_error)
|
151
|
+
ranges = {}
|
152
|
+
level = 1 - (max_error**2)
|
153
|
+
@choices.each do |choice|
|
154
|
+
unless choice == OTHER
|
155
|
+
ranges[choice] = dichotomies.confidence_interval_values(choice,
|
156
|
+
level).sort
|
157
|
+
end
|
158
|
+
end
|
159
|
+
ranges
|
160
|
+
end
|
161
|
+
|
162
|
+
def create_new_seats_distributions
|
163
|
+
distributions = {}
|
164
|
+
@choices.each do |choice|
|
165
|
+
distributions[choice] = CombinationsDistribution.new
|
166
|
+
Range.new(0, @area.no_of_seats).each do |value|
|
167
|
+
distributions[choice][value] = 0.to_lf
|
168
|
+
end
|
169
|
+
end
|
170
|
+
@coalitions.each do |coalition|
|
171
|
+
distributions[coalition] = CombinationsDistribution.new
|
172
|
+
Range.new(0, @area.no_of_seats).each do |value|
|
173
|
+
distributions[coalition][value] = 0.to_lf
|
174
|
+
end
|
175
|
+
end
|
176
|
+
distributions
|
177
|
+
end
|
178
|
+
|
179
|
+
def create_new_votes_distributions
|
180
|
+
distributions = {}
|
181
|
+
@choices.each do |choice|
|
182
|
+
unless choice == OTHER
|
183
|
+
distributions[choice] = CombinationsDistribution.new
|
184
|
+
@ranges[choice].each do |value|
|
185
|
+
distributions[choice][value] = 0.to_lf
|
186
|
+
end
|
187
|
+
end
|
188
|
+
end
|
189
|
+
@coalitions.each do |coalition|
|
190
|
+
distributions[coalition] = CombinationsDistribution.new
|
191
|
+
end
|
192
|
+
distributions
|
193
|
+
end
|
194
|
+
|
195
|
+
def next_data_point
|
196
|
+
indexes = @enum.next
|
197
|
+
data_point = {}
|
198
|
+
indexes.each_with_index do |ix, i|
|
199
|
+
data_point[@ranges.keys[i]] = @ranges.values[i][ix]
|
200
|
+
end
|
201
|
+
data_point[OTHER] = @area.population_size - data_point.values.inject(:+)
|
202
|
+
data_point
|
203
|
+
end
|
204
|
+
|
205
|
+
def simulate(votes, seats, data_point)
|
206
|
+
combinations = 1.to_lf
|
207
|
+
data_point.each do |choice, value|
|
208
|
+
combinations *= BinomialsCache.binomial(value, @results[choice])
|
209
|
+
end
|
210
|
+
@combinations_sum += combinations
|
211
|
+
data_point.each do |choice, value|
|
212
|
+
votes[choice][value] += combinations unless choice == OTHER
|
213
|
+
end
|
214
|
+
@choices.each do |a|
|
215
|
+
@choices.each do |b|
|
216
|
+
if data_point[a] > data_point[b]
|
217
|
+
@comparisons[a + '>' + b] += combinations
|
218
|
+
end
|
219
|
+
end
|
220
|
+
end
|
221
|
+
@coalitions.each do |coalition|
|
222
|
+
coalition_value = coalition.map { |choice| data_point.key?(choice) ? data_point[choice] : 0}.inject(:+)
|
223
|
+
if votes[coalition][coalition_value].nil?
|
224
|
+
votes[coalition][coalition_value] = combinations
|
225
|
+
else
|
226
|
+
votes[coalition][coalition_value] += combinations
|
227
|
+
end
|
228
|
+
end
|
229
|
+
projection = @area.seats(data_point)
|
230
|
+
@choices.each do |choice|
|
231
|
+
if projection.key?(choice)
|
232
|
+
seats[choice][projection[choice]] += combinations
|
233
|
+
else
|
234
|
+
seats[choice][0] += combinations
|
235
|
+
end
|
236
|
+
end
|
237
|
+
@coalitions.each do |coalition|
|
238
|
+
coalition_value = coalition.map { |choice| projection.key?(choice) ? projection[choice] : 0}.inject(:+)
|
239
|
+
if seats[coalition][coalition_value].nil?
|
240
|
+
seats[coalition][coalition_value] = combinations
|
241
|
+
else
|
242
|
+
seats[coalition][coalition_value] += combinations
|
243
|
+
end
|
244
|
+
end
|
245
|
+
end
|
246
|
+
|
247
|
+
def calculate_error_estimate(new_simulations)
|
248
|
+
error_estimate = 0
|
249
|
+
@choices.each do |choice|
|
250
|
+
unless choice == OTHER
|
251
|
+
mpv_new = calculate_most_probable_fraction(choice, new_simulations)
|
252
|
+
mpv_old = calculate_most_probable_fraction(choice, @distributions)
|
253
|
+
delta = (mpv_new - mpv_old).abs
|
254
|
+
error_estimate = [error_estimate, delta].max
|
255
|
+
end
|
256
|
+
end
|
257
|
+
error_estimate
|
258
|
+
end
|
259
|
+
|
260
|
+
def merge_distributions(distributions1, distributions2)
|
261
|
+
merged_distributions = {}
|
262
|
+
@choices.each do |choice|
|
263
|
+
unless choice == OTHER
|
264
|
+
merged_distributions[choice] = distributions1[choice] + \
|
265
|
+
distributions2[choice]
|
266
|
+
end
|
267
|
+
end
|
268
|
+
@coalitions.each do |coalition|
|
269
|
+
merged_distributions[coalition] = distributions1[coalition] + \
|
270
|
+
distributions2[coalition]
|
271
|
+
end
|
272
|
+
merged_distributions
|
273
|
+
end
|
274
|
+
|
275
|
+
def sort_choices_by_result
|
276
|
+
sorted_choices = @choices.reject { |choice| choice == OTHER }
|
277
|
+
sorted_choices.sort do |a, b|
|
278
|
+
comparison = result(b) <=> result(a)
|
279
|
+
if comparison == 0
|
280
|
+
a <=> b
|
281
|
+
else
|
282
|
+
comparison
|
283
|
+
end
|
284
|
+
end
|
285
|
+
end
|
286
|
+
|
287
|
+
def coalition_label(coalition)
|
288
|
+
coalition.sort.join(' + ')
|
289
|
+
end
|
290
|
+
|
291
|
+
def sort_coalitions_by_result
|
292
|
+
@coalitions.sort do |a, b|
|
293
|
+
comparison = result(b) <=> result(a)
|
294
|
+
if comparison == 0
|
295
|
+
coalition_label(a) <=> coalition_label(b)
|
296
|
+
else
|
297
|
+
comparison
|
298
|
+
end
|
299
|
+
end
|
300
|
+
end
|
301
|
+
|
302
|
+
def result(choice)
|
303
|
+
@results[choice].to_f / @results.values.inject(:+)
|
304
|
+
end
|
305
|
+
|
306
|
+
def coalition_result(coalition)
|
307
|
+
coalition.map { |choice| @results[choice].to_f }.inject(:+) / @results.values.inject(:+)
|
308
|
+
end
|
309
|
+
|
310
|
+
def larger_than(a, b)
|
311
|
+
probability = @comparisons[a + '>' + b] / @combinations_sum
|
312
|
+
probability.mantissa * (10**probability.exponent)
|
313
|
+
end
|
314
|
+
|
315
|
+
def create_choice_report_line(choice, next_choice, max_choice_width, max_seats_width)
|
316
|
+
ci_values = @distributions[choice].confidence_interval(0.95)
|
317
|
+
confidence_interval = ci_values.map { |x| x.to_f / @area.population_size }
|
318
|
+
ci_seats = @seats[choice].confidence_interval(0.95)
|
319
|
+
choice.ljust(max_choice_width) + ' ' + \
|
320
|
+
six_char_percentage(result(choice)) + ' ' + \
|
321
|
+
six_char_percentage(most_probable_rounded_fraction(choice)) + ' ' + \
|
322
|
+
six_char_percentage(most_probable_fraction(choice)) + ' ' + \
|
323
|
+
six_char_percentage(confidence_interval.first) + '–' + \
|
324
|
+
six_char_percentage(confidence_interval.last) + ' ' + \
|
325
|
+
(next_choice.nil? ? ' ' : six_char_percentage(larger_than(choice, next_choice))) + ' ' + \
|
326
|
+
(max_seats_width == 1 ? ' ' : '') + \
|
327
|
+
ci_seats.first.to_s.rjust(max_seats_width) + '–' + \
|
328
|
+
ci_seats.last.to_s.rjust(max_seats_width)
|
329
|
+
end
|
330
|
+
|
331
|
+
def create_coalition_report_line(coalition, max_coalition_width, max_seats_width)
|
332
|
+
ci_values = @distributions[coalition].confidence_interval(0.95)
|
333
|
+
majority_votes_probability = @distributions[coalition].threshold_probability(0.5, @area.population_size)
|
334
|
+
confidence_interval = ci_values.map { |x| x.to_f / @area.population_size }
|
335
|
+
ci_seats = @seats[coalition].confidence_interval(0.95)
|
336
|
+
seats_majority = 1 + @area.no_of_seats / 2
|
337
|
+
majority_seats_probability = @seats[coalition].value_threshold_probability(seats_majority)
|
338
|
+
coalition_label(coalition).ljust(max_coalition_width) + ' ' + \
|
339
|
+
six_char_percentage(coalition_result(coalition)) + ' ' + \
|
340
|
+
six_char_percentage(most_probable_rounded_fraction(coalition)) + ' ' + \
|
341
|
+
six_char_percentage(most_probable_fraction(coalition)) + ' ' + \
|
342
|
+
six_char_percentage(confidence_interval.first) + '–' + \
|
343
|
+
six_char_percentage(confidence_interval.last) + ' ' + \
|
344
|
+
six_char_percentage(majority_votes_probability) + ' ' + \
|
345
|
+
(max_seats_width == 1 ? ' ' : '') + \
|
346
|
+
ci_seats.first.to_s.rjust(max_seats_width) + '–' + \
|
347
|
+
ci_seats.last.to_s.rjust(max_seats_width) + ' ' + \
|
348
|
+
six_char_percentage(majority_seats_probability)
|
349
|
+
end
|
350
|
+
|
351
|
+
def most_probable_rounded_fraction(key)
|
352
|
+
if @no_of_simulations == 0
|
353
|
+
nil
|
354
|
+
else
|
355
|
+
@distributions[key].most_probable_rounded_fraction(@area.population_size)
|
356
|
+
end
|
357
|
+
end
|
358
|
+
end
|
359
|
+
end
|