wsba-hockey 0.1.1__py3-none-any.whl → 0.1.4__py3-none-any.whl

wsba_hockey/tools/xg_model.py

@@ -0,0 +1,374 @@
+import pandas as pd
+import numpy as np
+import xgboost as xgb
+import scipy.sparse as sp
+import joblib
+from zipfile import ZipFile
+import requests as rs
+
+### XG_MODEL FUNCTIONS ###
+# Provided in this file are functions vital to the goal prediction model in the WSBA Hockey Python package. #
+
+## GLOBAL VARIABLES ##
+#Newest season
+new_full = '20242025'
+new = '2024'
+
+def prep_xG_data(pbp):
+    #Prep data for xG training and calculation
+
+    events = ['faceoff','hit','giveaway','takeaway','blocked-shot','missed-shot','shot-on-goal','goal']
+    shot_types = ['wrist','deflected','tip-in','slap','backhand','snap','wrap-around','poke','bat','cradle','between-legs']
+    fenwick_events = ['missed-shot','shot-on-goal','goal']
+    
+    #Informal groupby
+    data = pbp.sort_values(by=['season','game_id','period','seconds_elapsed','event_num'])
+
+    #Add event time details - prevent leaking between games by setting value to zero when no time has occured in game
+    data["seconds_since_last"] = np.where(data['seconds_elapsed']==0,0,data['seconds_elapsed']-data['seconds_elapsed'].shift(1))
+    data["event_length"] = np.where(data['seconds_elapsed']==0,0,data['seconds_since_last'].shift(-1))
+    
+    #Create last event columns
+    data["event_team_last"] = data['event_team_abbr'].shift(1)
+    data["event_type_last"] = data['event_type'].shift(1)
+    data["x_fixed_last"] = data['x_fixed'].shift(1)
+    data["y_fixed_last"] = data['y_fixed'].shift(1)
+    data["zone_code_last"] = data['zone_code'].shift(1)    
+
+    data.sort_values(['season','game_id','period','seconds_elapsed','event_num'],inplace=True)
+    data['score_state'] = np.where(data['away_team_abbr']==data['event_team_abbr'],data['away_score']-data['home_score'],data['home_score']-data['away_score'])
+    data['strength_diff'] = np.where(data['away_team_abbr']==data['event_team_abbr'],data['away_skaters']-data['home_skaters'],data['home_skaters']-data['away_skaters'])
+    data['fenwick_state'] = np.where(data['away_team_abbr']==data['event_team_abbr'],data['away_fenwick']-data['home_fenwick'],data['home_fenwick']-data['away_fenwick'])
+    data['distance_from_last'] = np.sqrt((data['x_fixed'] - data['x_fixed_last'])**2 + (data['y_fixed'] - data['y_fixed_last'])**2)
+
+    #Rush and rebounds are included and graded off of the speed of the event (an event cannot be a rush event unless it also occurs in the offensive zone)
+    data['rush_mod'] = np.where((data['event_type'].isin(fenwick_events))&(data['zone_code_last'].isin(['N','D']))&(data['x_fixed']>25)&(data['seconds_since_last']<5),5-data['seconds_since_last'],0)
+    data['rebound_mod'] = np.where((data['event_type'].isin(fenwick_events))&(data['event_type_last'].isin(fenwick_events))&(data['seconds_since_last']<3),3-data['seconds_since_last'],0)
+
+    #Create boolean variables
+    data["is_goal"]=(data['event_type']=='goal').astype(int)
+    data["is_home"]=(data['home_team_abbr']==data['event_team_abbr']).astype(int)
+
+    #Boolean variables for shot types and prior events
+    for shot in shot_types:
+        data[shot] = (data['shot_type']==shot).astype(int)
+    for event in events[0:len(events)-1]:
+        data[f'prior_{event}_same'] = ((data['event_type_last']==event)&(data['event_team_last']==data['event_team_abbr'])).astype(int)
+        data[f'prior_{event}_opp'] = ((data['event_type_last']==event)&(data['event_team_last']!=data['event_team_abbr'])).astype(int)
+    
+    data['prior_faceoff'] = (data['event_type_last']=='faceoff').astype(int)
+    
+    #Return: pbp data prepared to train and calculate the xG model
+    return data
+
+def wsba_xG(pbp, train = False, overwrite = False, model_path = "tools/xg_model/wsba_xg.joblib", train_runs = 20, cv_runs = 20):
+    #Train and calculate the WSBA Expected Goals model
+    
+    target = "is_goal"
+    continous = ['event_distance',
+                'event_angle',
+                'seconds_elapsed',
+                'period',
+                'x_fixed',
+                'y_fixed',
+                'x_fixed_last',
+                'y_fixed_last',
+                'distance_from_last',
+                'seconds_since_last',
+                'score_state',
+                'strength_diff',
+                'fenwick_state',
+                'rush_mod',
+                'rebound_mod']
+    boolean = ['is_home',
+            'wrist',
+            'deflected',
+            'tip-in',
+            'slap',
+            'backhand',
+            'snap',
+            'wrap-around',
+            'poke',
+            'bat',
+            'cradle',
+            'between-legs',
+            'prior_shot-on-goal_same',
+            'prior_missed-shot_same',
+            'prior_blocked-shot_same',
+            'prior_giveaway_same',
+            'prior_takeaway_same',
+            'prior_hit_same',
+            'prior_shot-on-goal_opp',
+            'prior_missed-shot_opp',
+            'prior_blocked-shot_opp',
+            'prior_giveaway_opp',
+            'prior_takeaway_opp',
+            'prior_hit_opp',
+            'prior_faceoff']
+    
+    #Prep Data
+    pbp = prep_xG_data(pbp)
+    #Filter unwanted date:
+    #Shots must occur in specified events and strength states, occur before the shootout, and have valid coordinates
+    events = ['faceoff','hit','giveaway','takeaway','blocked-shot','missed-shot','shot-on-goal','goal']
+    fenwick_events = ['missed-shot','shot-on-goal','goal']
+    strengths = ['3v3',
+                '3v4',
+                '3v5',
+                '4v3',
+                '4v4',
+                '4v5',
+                '4v6',
+                '5v3',
+                '5v4',
+                '5v5',
+                '5v6',
+                '6v4',
+                '6v5']
+    
+    data = pbp.loc[(pbp['event_type'].isin(events))&
+                   (pbp['strength_state'].isin(strengths))&
+                   (pbp['period'] < 5)&
+                   (pbp['x_fixed'].notna())&
+                   (pbp['y_fixed'].notna())&
+                   ~((pbp['x_fixed']==0)&(pbp['y_fixed']==0)&(pbp['x_fixed'].isin(fenwick_events))&(pbp['event_distance']!=90))]
+
+    #Convert to sparse
+    data_sparse = sp.csr_matrix(data[[target]+continous+boolean])
+
+    #Target and Predictors
+    is_goal_vect = data_sparse[:, 0].A
+    predictors = data_sparse[:, 1:]
+
+    #XGB DataModel
+    xgb_matrix = xgb.DMatrix(data=predictors,label=is_goal_vect)
+
+    if train == True:
+        # Number of runs
+        run_num = train_runs
+
+        # DataFrames to store results
+        best_df = pd.DataFrame(columns=["max_depth", "eta", "gamma", "subsample", "colsample_bytree", "min_child_weight", "max_delta_step"])
+        best_ll = pd.DataFrame(columns=["ll", "ll_rounds", "auc", "auc_rounds", "seed"])
+
+        # Loop
+        for i in range(run_num):
+            print(f"### LOOP: {i+1} ###")
+            
+            param = {
+                "objective": "binary:logistic",
+                "eval_metric": ["logloss", "auc"],
+                "max_depth": 6,
+                "eta": np.random.uniform(0.06, 0.11),
+                "gamma": np.random.uniform(0.06, 0.12),
+                "subsample": np.random.uniform(0.76, 0.84),
+                "colsample_bytree": np.random.uniform(0.76, 0.8),
+                "min_child_weight": np.random.randint(5, 23),
+                "max_delta_step": np.random.randint(4, 9)
+            }
+            
+            # Cross-validation
+            seed = np.random.randint(0, 10000)
+            np.random.seed(seed)
+            
+            cv_results = xgb.cv(
+                params=param,
+                dtrain=xgb_matrix,
+                num_boost_round=1000,
+                nfold=5,
+                early_stopping_rounds=25,
+                metrics=["logloss", "auc"],
+                seed=seed
+            )
+            
+            # Record results
+            best_df.loc[i] = param
+            best_ll.loc[i] = [
+                cv_results["test-logloss-mean"].min(),
+                cv_results["test-logloss-mean"].idxmin(),
+                cv_results["test-auc-mean"].max(),
+                cv_results["test-auc-mean"].idxmax(),
+                seed
+            ]
+
+        # Combine results
+        best_all = pd.concat([best_df, best_ll], axis=1).dropna()
+
+        # Arrange to get best run
+        best_all = best_all.sort_values(by="auc", ascending=False)
+
+        if overwrite == True:
+            best_all.to_csv("xg_model/testing/xg_model_training_runs.csv",index=False)
+        else: 
+            best_old = pd.read_csv("xg_model/testing/xg_model_training_runs.csv")
+            best_comb = pd.concat([best_old,best_all])
+            best_comb.to_csv("xg_model/testing/xg_model_training_runs.csv",index=False)
+
+        # Final parameters
+        param_7_EV = {
+            "objective": "binary:logistic",
+            "eval_metric": ["logloss", "auc"],
+            "eta": 0.068,
+            "gamma": 0.12,
+            "subsample": 0.78,
+            "max_depth": 6,
+            "colsample_bytree": 0.76,
+            "min_child_weight": 5,
+            "max_delta_step": 5,
+        }
+
+        # CV rounds Loop
+        run_num = cv_runs
+        cv_test = pd.DataFrame(columns=["AUC_rounds", "AUC", "LL_rounds", "LL", "seed"])
+
+        for i in range(run_num):
+            print(f"### LOOP: {i+1} ###")
+            
+            seed = np.random.randint(0, 10000)
+            np.random.seed(seed)
+            
+            cv_rounds = xgb.cv(
+                params=param_7_EV,
+                dtrain=xgb_matrix,
+                num_boost_round=1000,
+                nfold=5,
+                early_stopping_rounds=25,
+                metrics=["logloss", "auc"],
+                seed=seed
+            )
+            
+            # Record results
+            cv_test.loc[i] = [
+                cv_rounds["test-auc-mean"].idxmax(),
+                cv_rounds["test-auc-mean"].max(),
+                cv_rounds["test-logloss-mean"].idxmin(),
+                cv_rounds["test-logloss-mean"].min(),
+                seed
+            ]
+
+        # Clean results and sort to find the number of rounds to use and seed
+        cv_final = cv_test.sort_values(by="AUC", ascending=False)
+        if overwrite == True:
+            cv_final.to_csv("xg_model/testing/xg_model_cv_runs.csv",index=False)
+        else:
+            cv_old = pd.read_csv("xg_model/testing/xg_model_cv_runs.csv")
+            cv_comb = pd.concat([cv_old,cv_final])
+            cv_comb.to_csv("xg_model/testing/xg_model_cv_runs.csv")
+        cv_final.loc[len(cv_final)] = cv_test.mean()
+
+        # Train the final model
+        np.random.seed(556)
+        
+        if overwrite == False:
+            model = joblib.load(model_path)
+        else:
+            ""
+
+        model = xgb.train(
+            params=param_7_EV,
+            dtrain=xgb_matrix,
+            num_boost_round=189,
+            verbose_eval=2
+        )
+
+        joblib.dump(model,model_path)
+        
+    else:
+        model = joblib.load(model_path)
+        pbp['xG'] = np.where(pbp['event_type'].isin(fenwick_events),model.predict(xgb_matrix),"")
+        return pbp
+
+def moneypuck_xG(pbp,repo_path = "tools/xg_model/moneypuck/shots_2007-2023.zip"):
+    #Given play-by-play, return itself with xG column sourced from MoneyPuck.com
+
+    #If file is already in the repository downloading is not necessary
+    try:
+        db = pd.read_parquet("tools/xg_model/moneypuck/shots/shots_2007-2023.parquet")
+    except:
+        url = 'https://peter-tanner.com/moneypuck/downloads/shots_2007-2023.zip'
+
+        response = rs.get(url)
+
+        if response.status_code == 200:
+            with open(repo_path, 'wb') as file:
+                file.write(response.content)
+            print('File downloaded successfully')
+        else:
+            print('Failed to download file')
+
+        with ZipFile(repo_path, 'r') as zObject: 
+            zObject.extractall( 
+                path="tools/xg_model/moneypuck/shots/")
+        
+        db = pd.read_csv("tools/xg_model/moneypuck/shots/shots_2007-2023.csv")  
+    
+    #Repeat process with active/most recent season
+    #For the new/recent season, only scrape if the supplied pbp data contains the season
+    if new in list(pbp['season'].astype(str).str[0:4]):
+        url = f'https://peter-tanner.com/moneypuck/downloads/shots_{new}.zip'
+        repo_path = f"tools/xg_model/moneypuck/shots_{new}.zip"
+
+        response = rs.get(url)
+
+        if response.status_code == 200:
+            with open(repo_path, 'wb') as file:
+                file.write(response.content)
+            print('File downloaded successfully')
+        else:
+            print('Failed to download file')
+
+        with ZipFile(repo_path, 'r') as zObject: 
+            zObject.extractall( 
+                path="tools/xg_model/moneypuck/shots/")
+            
+        new_season = pd.read_csv(f"tools/xg_model/moneypuck/shots/shots_{new}.csv")
+        #Convert to parquet
+        new_season.to_parquet(f"tools/xg_model/moneypuck/shots/shots_{new}.csv",index=False)
+    else:
+        new_season = pd.DataFrame()
+    #Combine shots
+    moneypuck = pd.concat([db,new_season])
+
+    #Find game ids that occur in supplied pbp and filter moneypuck shots accordingly
+    moneypuck['game_id'] = moneypuck['season'].astype(str)+"0"+moneypuck['game_id'].astype(str)
+    moneypuck['event'] = moneypuck['event'].replace({
+        "SHOT":"shot-on-goal",
+        "MISS":"missed-shot",
+        "BLOCK":"blocked-shot",
+        "GOAL":"goal"
+    })
+    
+    #Manual Team Rename
+    moneypuck['teamCode'] = moneypuck['teamCode'].replace({
+        "L.A":"LAK",
+        "N.J":"NJD",
+        "S.J":"SJS",
+        "T.B":"TBL",
+    })
+    pbp['event_team_abbr'] = pbp['event_team_abbr'].replace({
+        "L.A":"LAK",
+        "N.J":"NJD",
+        "S.J":"SJS",
+        "T.B":"TBL",
+        "PHX":'ARI'
+    })
+
+    #Managing oddities in datatypes
+    moneypuck[['game_id','period','time']] = moneypuck[['game_id','period','time']].astype(int)
+    pbp[['game_id','period','seconds_elapsed']] = pbp[['game_id','period','seconds_elapsed']].astype(int)
+
+    #Modify and merge
+    moneypuck = moneypuck[['game_id','period','time','event','teamCode','shooterPlayerId','xGoal']]
+    comb = pd.merge(pbp,moneypuck
+                    ,left_on=['game_id','period','seconds_elapsed','event_type','event_team_abbr','event_player_1_id']
+                    ,right_on=['game_id','period','time','event','teamCode','shooterPlayerId']
+                    ,how='left')
+    
+    #Drop and rename
+    pbp_xg = comb.drop(columns=['time', 'event', 'teamCode', 'shooterPlayerId']).rename(columns={'xGoal':'xG'})
+    
+    if pbp_xg['xG'].isnull().all():
+        print("No MoneyPuck xG values were found for this game...")
+
+    #Return: play-by-play with moneypuck xG column
+    return pbp_xg