prediction-market-agent-tooling 0.64.12.dev660__py3-none-any.whl → 0.65.0__py3-none-any.whl

prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/seer_subgraph_handler.py

@@ -5,6 +5,10 @@ from typing import Any
 from subgrounds import FieldPath
 from web3.constants import ADDRESS_ZERO
 
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.constants import (
+    NO_OUTCOME_LOWERCASE_IDENTIFIER,
+    YES_OUTCOME_LOWERCASE_IDENTIFIER,
+)
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.gtypes import ChecksumAddress
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.loggers import logger
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.agent_market import FilterBy, SortBy
@@ -70,18 +74,11 @@ class SeerSubgraphHandler(BaseSubgraphHandler):
         # We do an extra check for the invalid outcome for safety.
         return [m for m in markets if len(m.outcomes) == 3]
 
-    @staticmethod
-    def filter_binary_markets(markets: list[SeerMarket]) -> list[SeerMarket]:
-        return [
-            market
-            for market in markets
-            if {"yes", "no"}.issubset({o.lower() for o in market.outcomes})
-        ]
-
     @staticmethod
     def _build_where_statements(
         filter_by: FilterBy,
         include_conditional_markets: bool = False,
+        include_categorical_markets: bool = True,
     ) -> dict[Any, Any]:
         now = to_int_timestamp(utcnow())
 
@@ -103,14 +100,27 @@ class SeerSubgraphHandler(BaseSubgraphHandler):
             and_stms["parentMarket"] = ADDRESS_ZERO.lower()
 
         # We are only interested in binary markets of type YES/NO/Invalid.
-        or_stms = {}
-        or_stms["or"] = [
-            {"outcomes_contains": ["YES"]},
-            {"outcomes_contains": ["Yes"]},
-            {"outcomes_contains": ["yes"]},
-        ]
+        yes_stms, no_stms = {}, {}
+        if not include_categorical_markets:
+            # Create single OR conditions with all variations
+            yes_stms["or"] = [
+                {"outcomes_contains": [variation]}
+                for variation in [
+                    YES_OUTCOME_LOWERCASE_IDENTIFIER,
+                    YES_OUTCOME_LOWERCASE_IDENTIFIER.capitalize(),
+                    YES_OUTCOME_LOWERCASE_IDENTIFIER.upper(),
+                ]
+            ]
+            no_stms["or"] = [
+                {"outcomes_contains": [variation]}
+                for variation in [
+                    NO_OUTCOME_LOWERCASE_IDENTIFIER,
+                    NO_OUTCOME_LOWERCASE_IDENTIFIER.capitalize(),
+                    NO_OUTCOME_LOWERCASE_IDENTIFIER.upper(),
+                ]
+            ]
 
-        where_stms: dict[str, t.Any] = {"and": [and_stms, or_stms]}
+        where_stms: dict[str, t.Any] = {"and": [and_stms, yes_stms, no_stms]}
         return where_stms
 
     def _build_sort_params(
@@ -139,18 +149,22 @@ class SeerSubgraphHandler(BaseSubgraphHandler):
 
         return sort_direction, sort_by_field
 
-    def get_bicategorical_markets(
+    def get_markets(
         self,
         filter_by: FilterBy,
+        sort_by: SortBy = SortBy.NONE,
         limit: int | None = None,
-        sort_by_field: FieldPath | None = None,
-        sort_direction: str | None = None,
         include_conditional_markets: bool = True,
+        include_categorical_markets: bool = True,
     ) -> list[SeerMarket]:
+        sort_direction, sort_by_field = self._build_sort_params(sort_by)
+
         """Returns markets that contain 2 categories plus an invalid outcome."""
         # Binary markets on Seer contain 3 outcomes: OutcomeA, outcomeB and an Invalid option.
         where_stms = self._build_where_statements(
-            filter_by=filter_by, include_conditional_markets=include_conditional_markets
+            filter_by=filter_by,
+            include_conditional_markets=include_conditional_markets,
+            include_categorical_markets=include_categorical_markets,
         )
 
         # These values can not be set to `None`, but they can be omitted.
@@ -169,28 +183,7 @@ class SeerSubgraphHandler(BaseSubgraphHandler):
         )
         fields = self._get_fields_for_markets(markets_field)
         markets = self.do_query(fields=fields, pydantic_model=SeerMarket)
-        two_category_markets = self.filter_bicategorical_markets(markets)
-        return two_category_markets
-
-    def get_binary_markets(
-        self,
-        filter_by: FilterBy,
-        sort_by: SortBy = SortBy.NONE,
-        limit: int | None = None,
-        include_conditional_markets: bool = True,
-    ) -> list[SeerMarket]:
-        sort_direction, sort_by_field = self._build_sort_params(sort_by)
-
-        two_category_markets = self.get_bicategorical_markets(
-            limit=limit,
-            include_conditional_markets=include_conditional_markets,
-            sort_direction=sort_direction,
-            sort_by_field=sort_by_field,
-            filter_by=filter_by,
-        )
-        # Now we additionally filter markets based on YES/NO being the only outcomes.
-        binary_markets = self.filter_binary_markets(two_category_markets)
-        return binary_markets
+        return markets
 
     def get_market_by_id(self, market_id: HexBytes) -> SeerMarket:
         markets_field = self.seer_subgraph.Query.market(id=market_id.hex().lower())

prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/betting_strategies/kelly_criterion.py

@@ -98,7 +98,7 @@ def get_kelly_bet_full(
     check_is_valid_probability(confidence)
 
     if max_bet == 0:
-        return SimpleBet(direction=True, size=CollateralToken(0))
+        return SimpleBet(size=CollateralToken(0), direction=True)
 
     x = yes_outcome_pool_size.value
     y = no_outcome_pool_size.value

prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/cow/cow_order.py

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ from datetime import timedelta
 
 import httpx
 import tenacity
+from cachetools import TTLCache, cached
 from cowdao_cowpy.common.api.errors import UnexpectedResponseError
 from cowdao_cowpy.common.chains import Chain
 from cowdao_cowpy.common.config import SupportedChainId
@@ -23,7 +24,12 @@ from cowdao_cowpy.order_book.generated.model import (
     TokenAmount,
 )
 from cowdao_cowpy.subgraph.client import BaseModel
-from tenacity import retry_if_not_exception_type, stop_after_attempt, wait_fixed
+from tenacity import (
+    retry_if_not_exception_type,
+    stop_after_attempt,
+    wait_exponential,
+    wait_fixed,
+)
 from web3 import Web3
 
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.config import APIKeys
@@ -88,8 +94,8 @@ def get_sell_token_amount(
 
 
 @tenacity.retry(
-    stop=stop_after_attempt(3),
-    wait=wait_fixed(1),
+    stop=stop_after_attempt(4),
+    wait=wait_exponential(min=4, max=10),
     retry=retry_if_not_exception_type(NoLiquidityAvailableOnCowException),
 )
 def get_quote(
@@ -133,6 +139,7 @@ def get_quote(
         raise
 
 
+@cached(TTLCache(maxsize=100, ttl=5 * 60))
 def get_buy_token_amount_else_raise(
     sell_amount: Wei,
     sell_token: ChecksumAddress,

prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/is_predictable.py

@@ -15,14 +15,13 @@ from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.utils import (
 # I tried to make it return a JSON, but it didn't work well in combo with asking it to do chain of thought.
 QUESTION_IS_PREDICTABLE_BINARY_PROMPT = """Main signs about a fully qualified question (sometimes referred to as a "market"):
 - The market's question needs to be specific, without use of pronouns.
-- The market's question needs to have a clear future event.
+- The market must refer to a future event — not something that already happened. This is a hard requirement. If the event has already occurred, the question is not fully qualified, even if it is specific and answerable.
 - The market's question needs to have a clear time frame.
 - The event in the market's question doesn't have to be ultra-specific, it will be decided by a crowd later on.
 - If the market's question contains date, but without an year, it's okay.
 - If the market's question contains year, but without an exact date, it's okay.
 - The market's question can not be about itself or refer to itself.
 - The answer is probably Google-able, after the event happened.
-- The potential answer can be only "Yes" or "No".
 
 Follow a chain of thought to evaluate if the question is fully qualified:
 
@@ -59,7 +58,7 @@ If the question is vague and the description contains the information required t
 
 Follow a chain of thought to evaluate if the question doesn't need the description to be answered.
 
-Start by examining detaily the question and the description. Write down their parts, what they refer to and what they contain. 
+Start by examining the question and the description in detail. Write down their parts, what they refer to and what they contain. 
 
 Continue by writing comparison of the question and the description content. Write down what the question contains and what the description contains.
 

prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/langfuse_client_utils.py

@@ -7,8 +7,8 @@ from pydantic import BaseModel
 
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.loggers import logger
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.data_models import (
+    CategoricalProbabilisticAnswer,
     PlacedTrade,
-    ProbabilisticAnswer,
     ResolvedBet,
     TradeType,
 )
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.utils import DatetimeUTC
 class ProcessMarketTrace(BaseModel):
     timestamp: int
     market: OmenAgentMarket
-    answer: ProbabilisticAnswer
+    answer: CategoricalProbabilisticAnswer
     trades: list[PlacedTrade]
 
     @property
@@ -118,10 +118,10 @@ def trace_to_omen_agent_market(trace: TraceWithDetails) -> OmenAgentMarket | Non
         return None
 
 
-def trace_to_answer(trace: TraceWithDetails) -> ProbabilisticAnswer:
+def trace_to_answer(trace: TraceWithDetails) -> CategoricalProbabilisticAnswer:
     assert trace.output is not None, "Trace output is None"
     assert trace.output["answer"] is not None, "Trace output result is None"
-    return ProbabilisticAnswer.model_validate(trace.output["answer"])
+    return CategoricalProbabilisticAnswer.model_validate(trace.output["answer"])
 
 
 def trace_to_trades(trace: TraceWithDetails) -> list[PlacedTrade]:

prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/omen/sell_positions.py

@@ -47,9 +47,10 @@ def sell_all(
             continue
 
         old_balance = new_balance
+        bet_outcome = bet.fpmm.outcomes[bet.outcomeIndex]
         agent_market.sell_tokens(
-            bet.boolean_outcome,
-            current_token_balance,
+            outcome=bet_outcome,
+            amount=current_token_balance,
             auto_withdraw=auto_withdraw,
             api_keys=api_keys,
         )

prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/utils.py

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 import os
 import subprocess
 from datetime import datetime
+from math import prod
 from typing import Any, NoReturn, Optional, Type, TypeVar
 
 import pytz
@@ -189,31 +190,43 @@ def prob_uncertainty(prob: Probability) -> float:
 
 def calculate_sell_amount_in_collateral(
     shares_to_sell: OutcomeToken,
-    holdings: OutcomeToken,
-    other_holdings: OutcomeToken,
+    outcome_index: int,
+    pool_balances: list[OutcomeToken],
     fees: MarketFees,
 ) -> CollateralToken:
     """
-    Computes the amount of collateral that needs to be sold to get `shares` amount of shares.
+    Computes the amount of collateral that needs to be sold to get `shares`
+    amount of shares. Returns None if the amount can't be computed.
 
     Taken from https://github.com/protofire/omen-exchange/blob/29d0ab16bdafa5cc0d37933c1c7608a055400c73/app/src/util/tools/fpmm/trading/index.ts#L99
     Simplified for binary markets.
     """
+
     if shares_to_sell == 0:
         return CollateralToken(0)
 
-    for v in [shares_to_sell, holdings, other_holdings]:
-        if v <= 0:
-            raise ValueError(
-                f"All share args must be greater than 0, got {[shares_to_sell, holdings, other_holdings]=}"
-            )
+    if not (0 <= outcome_index < len(pool_balances)):
+        raise IndexError("Invalid outcome index")
+
+    if any([v <= 0 for v in pool_balances]):
+        raise ValueError("All pool balances must be greater than 0")
+
+    holdings = pool_balances[outcome_index]
+    other_holdings = [v for i, v in enumerate(pool_balances) if i != outcome_index]
 
     def f(r: float) -> float:
-        R = OutcomeToken((r + fees.absolute) / (1 - fees.bet_proportion))
-        first_term = other_holdings - R
-        second_term = holdings + shares_to_sell - R
-        third_term = holdings * other_holdings
-        return ((first_term * second_term) - third_term).value
+        R = (r + fees.absolute) / (1 - fees.bet_proportion)
+
+        # First term: product of (h_i - R) for i != outcome_index
+        first_term = prod(h.value - R for h in other_holdings)
+
+        # Second term: (h_o + s - R)
+        second_term = holdings.value + shares_to_sell.value - R
+
+        # Third term: product of all holdings (including outcome_index)
+        total_product = prod(h.value for h in pool_balances)
+
+        return (first_term * second_term) - total_product
 
     amount_to_sell = newton(f, 0)
     return CollateralToken(float(amount_to_sell) * 0.999999)  # Avoid rounding errors

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.64.12.dev660.dist-info → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.65.0.dist-info}/METADATA

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.3
 Name: prediction-market-agent-tooling
-Version: 0.64.12.dev660
+Version: 0.65.0
 Summary: Tools to benchmark, deploy and monitor prediction market agents.
 Author: Gnosis
 Requires-Python: >=3.10,<3.13
@@ -182,7 +182,7 @@ from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.agent_market import SortBy
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.omen.omen import OmenAgentMarket
 
 # Place a bet on the market closing soonest
-market = OmenAgentMarket.get_binary_markets(limit=1, sort_by=SortBy.CLOSING_SOONEST)[0]
+market = OmenAgentMarket.get_markets(limit=1, sort_by=SortBy.CLOSING_SOONEST)[0]
 market.place_bet(outcome=True, amount=market.get_bet_amount(0.1))
 
 # View your positions

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.64.12.dev660.dist-info → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.65.0.dist-info}/RECORD

@@ -19,73 +19,63 @@ prediction_market_agent_tooling/abis/proxy.abi.json,sha256=h24GXZ6Q0bSZlwh7zOv0E
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/abis/seer_gnosis_router.abi.json,sha256=DyADzOXhy9MDS31ReVrG7ibpWbw1jVy19nExZ80xfRY,6839
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/abis/seer_market_factory.abi.json,sha256=g7RVxZVUWlTXIgTV2W6kO4twQM909Qv58zAr7Dk4XIc,13553
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/__init__.py,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TImW-5JCeuQeRkm5NMpJWZG3hSuFU,0
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/agents.py,sha256=B1-uWdyeN4GGKMWGK_-CcAFJg1m9Y_XuaeIHPB29QR8,3971
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/benchmark.py,sha256=MqTiaaJ3cYiOLUVR7OyImLWxcEya3Rl5JyFYW-K0lwM,17097
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/utils.py,sha256=D0MfUkVZllmvcU0VOurk9tcKT7JTtwwOp-63zuCBVuc,2880
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/agents.py,sha256=zC5tUM6pPTWtqSddOOSYV_fxHYmZb5uGAb4Ru87Tah8,4221
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/benchmark.py,sha256=KwMZzwise3sgmhdjw7xCgHMmjKHdHqQC-zc9untOLWg,17832
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/utils.py,sha256=xQd7p9H08-OtN3iC4QT2i9bkUTmrXa6rxGXeg9yMhgU,2986
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/chains.py,sha256=1qQstoqXMwqwM7k-KH7MjMz8Ei-D83KZByvDbCZpAxs,116
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/config.py,sha256=rdpRHZyoTvRIDn7Qu6eViOjPBkR9Z0MOdEMFsQOuAIE,10822
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent.py,sha256=dobqPUQkaDPhsvMmXwibNKu4hSSTXTvmfa3F46ylLBc,26560
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent_example.py,sha256=dIIdZashExWk9tOdyDjw87AuUcGyM7jYxNChYrVK2dM,1001
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/betting_strategy.py,sha256=p25t7VU7I4hSkSl6SpzI_W55kLbYEySQdBqeschmARY,12918
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/constants.py,sha256=M5ty8URipYMGe_G-RzxRydK3AFL6CyvmqCraJUrLBnE,82
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent.py,sha256=kxfJNfuvGJ2LFReI-PCyjGuubZKIrPEYiyphaS6eKcM,25476
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent_example.py,sha256=yS1fWkHynr9MYGNOM2WsCnRWLPaffY4bOc6bIudrdd4,1377
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/betting_strategy.py,sha256=YYayGjTKW02d3BUavJ8M3NmFk41oldEM3FHbwppZGRM,17184
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/constants.py,sha256=Qe9cllgsGMkecfmbhXoFkPxuJyG6ATsrT87RF9SmPWM,249
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/gcp/deploy.py,sha256=CYUgnfy-9XVk04kkxA_5yp0GE9Mw5caYqlFUZQ2j3ks,3739
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/gcp/kubernetes_models.py,sha256=OsPboCFGiZKsvGyntGZHwdqPlLTthITkNF5rJFvGgU8,2582
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/gcp/utils.py,sha256=WI2ycX1X-IlTRoNoG4ggFlRwPL28kwM9VGDFD2fePLo,5699
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/trade_interval.py,sha256=Xk9j45alQ_vrasGvsNyuW70XHIQ7wfvjoxNR3F6HYCw,1155
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/gtypes.py,sha256=bUIZfZIGvIi3aiZNu5rVE9kRevw8sfMa4bcze6QeBg8,6058
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/jobs/__init__.py,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TImW-5JCeuQeRkm5NMpJWZG3hSuFU,0
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/jobs/jobs_models.py,sha256=8vYafsK1cqMWQtjBoq9rruroF84xAVD00vBTMWH6QMg,2166
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/jobs/omen/omen_jobs.py,sha256=Pf6QxPXGyie-2l_wZUjaGPTjZTlpv50_JhP40mULBaU,5048
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/jobs/jobs_models.py,sha256=DoZ9dlvVhpNrnINiR1uy6YUOsuzI_L-avBt362y5xXM,2467
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/jobs/omen/omen_jobs.py,sha256=qbTZ9HVvu_iP4dDxuvOZxAp6JsRKejvEW2YDYCnRmd4,5039
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/loggers.py,sha256=hF_n-E5iMSqh3dY5G6LkQRHyReMYGPNTLu82dDFh1PU,5187
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/logprobs_parser.py,sha256=Du1Yc-fAVSixQX_Zx6KWpgSzI_ZYhv5tS1b8IcOPPr8,4979
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/agent_market.py,sha256=1NomilM0GCXcRq_1N_cr2AbSK5ONTowFeRbrhc7V5zE,14929
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/agent_market.py,sha256=smKuMaP1zyTtw31Robbj3ospF03xptWX0EDKPJbHH9I,19070
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/base_subgraph_handler.py,sha256=7RaYO_4qAmQ6ZGM8oPK2-CkiJfKmV9MxM-rJlduaecU,1971
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/blockchain_utils.py,sha256=qm21scopQ6dfewkoqQF6lWLDGg2BblsKUdC9aG93Hmc,2249
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/blockchain_utils.py,sha256=gZMwCTO-1d2ALXeY7-LP6U4kCpotJ6GMPZwN11kFOfE,2604
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/categorize.py,sha256=jsoHWvZk9pU6n17oWSCcCxNNYVwlb_NXsZxKRI7vmsk,1301
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/data_models.py,sha256=OZdq7VfTenxPk_3mI7DvpGMFMBPrq2pvFwcMb47BnNY,4663
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/data_models.py,sha256=vFlX1iNWJcYZlImPkTOQCp2C0veIO7HuAxe0Wf_S8yg,6952
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/manifold/__init__.py,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TImW-5JCeuQeRkm5NMpJWZG3hSuFU,0
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/manifold/api.py,sha256=ih92UTZdSbmy6tTUgSCps_HqYQXpMSsfne5Np5znVEM,7217
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/manifold/data_models.py,sha256=DWNvK6Qdxz7Lxqpe-qQE4X-mw8GFGpukGfnjT_ohcZA,6364
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/manifold/manifold.py,sha256=TakZ0SqyDFal0QECKCkKkuqqeUm1o3mTpesQIuYInig,4800
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/manifold/utils.py,sha256=_gGlWid0sPF127Omx5qQ1fq17frLInv0wdyXJBMGVzM,670
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/manifold/api.py,sha256=tWnjuqvU8pcCuja2B_ynHeds1iiEFc6QWHjeSO_GSxY,7676
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/manifold/data_models.py,sha256=QzRfR2g_3vzCw4azj_lOSKSFAZczjAWlM0lQy2dZry8,6704
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/manifold/manifold.py,sha256=dUVBkTqnD7M35H20nvSFG6dalYi9CbYZ8cyAqEMz9AE,4700
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/manifold/utils.py,sha256=aprL6vd4xZjzRDRyuhKkw5MnjPNFvwoqjDGLu9XoLXQ,361
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/market_fees.py,sha256=YeK3ynjYIguB0xf6sO5iyg9lOdW_HD4C6nbJfiGyRCU,1351
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/markets.py,sha256=Aseaflknwqsqg6wsCSnWU2Aoc5jH4g0aomnCI3VYRRU,4125
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/markets.py,sha256=cXN37xnNNOFJUcdmfD9osrGiffTxGVzWVNUFAPyPGkc,4119
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/metaculus/api.py,sha256=4TRPGytQQbSdf42DCg2M_JWYPAuNjqZ3eBqaQBLkNks,2736
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/metaculus/data_models.py,sha256=FaBCTPPezXbBwZ9p791CiVgQ4vB696xnMbz9XVXmiVI,3267
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/metaculus/metaculus.py,sha256=86TIx6cavEWc8Cv4KpZxSvwiSw9oFybXE3YB49pg-CA,4377
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/metaculus/metaculus.py,sha256=6iuUpDXgdbFOh-XuxH0rbeAf_m55r2KbHTaSTePNSWA,5614
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/__init__.py,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TImW-5JCeuQeRkm5NMpJWZG3hSuFU,0
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/cow_contracts.py,sha256=sl1L4cK5nAJwZ2wdhLzqh8p7h_IEValNvLwKUlInKxw,957
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/data_models.py,sha256=4YEOpU-ypq8IBxlEr_qgrKKWwE7wKG6VE_Dq-UKVdOE,30513
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen.py,sha256=NKeTT2gU6uZ9a4gGpa9Dxy6msFQp_41Ug85hIdCmQy4,51733
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/data_models.py,sha256=0jCxgUEVpaggt_avkNqgXAnZWdA6D-ew9PE2gm0aqDk,29930
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen.py,sha256=jyoAV-E_Qcbqqs4oi7junE3rHTG3kaYLMtIVzEkNC6M,49981
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_constants.py,sha256=D9oflYKafLQiHYtB5sScMHqmXyzM8JP8J0yATmc4SQQ,233
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_contracts.py,sha256=c6Z-hZzOybnmU-xRgzKElZmy_238Mf2mQ6dSUaYP_tY,29834
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_resolving.py,sha256=Cyi9Ci-Z-K8WCZWVLs9oSuJC6qRobi_CpqDCno_5F-0,10238
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_subgraph_handler.py,sha256=j-x_0Cm8IO-qynIXutu0iSPwrRDxdeCPYf5UHm6MJbs,39446
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_contracts.py,sha256=f0dKbdVM2OUTSpkCSZdPtKqeckS2c48j3rjnK8oD3wE,29716
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_resolving.py,sha256=05x-Yb0bUsJSEtsWQLqSHyl4HqLChksIb64OGygN-Rw,10226
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_subgraph_handler.py,sha256=ONwcLinp4uzlvLGmDDtGcE7_zrFoDVBTNshrYtw3ffk,39678
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/polymarket/api.py,sha256=UZ4_TG8ceb9Y-qgsOKs8Qiv8zDt957QkT8IX2c83yqo,4800
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/polymarket/data_models.py,sha256=utGN-Lhjsa-RHX5WW_jcqgWXtRkEZn0JemwYZkt3Lng,4344
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/polymarket/data_models_web.py,sha256=LVEsNw2nUx5poiU1m803NNqG5-fs8-MODQRyGLqy4mE,12585
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/polymarket/polymarket.py,sha256=6rc9qulPl90MxXKB55XiiWKLhjfAyG_eUzAlqpq1UIE,3339
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/polymarket/data_models.py,sha256=U1SXTz93FIG3GO1h5BJWSt1hPKn_YAMBeZ3k8IS-ook,4552
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/polymarket/data_models_web.py,sha256=wCwpZ8Kppy8JG_1HZDfEK_Gg1g1sL7NCbGoPeTeMSko,12756
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/polymarket/polymarket.py,sha256=meAhQ5_gwVDvlSxhGGVAvRB7B47zKLnRvZ-_13tKtwY,3433
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/polymarket/utils.py,sha256=8kTeVjXPcXC6DkDvWYsZQLY7x8DS6CEp_yznSEazsNU,2037
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/data_models.py,sha256=TcsDgbk2id1JJ_XT9bnvO4M75dTvOtbzQX67918OQ8E,7442
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/price_manager.py,sha256=EuOe6zCmEEWXz1loXaQQOYC7ZNQ0cDJn0rZadK1dBlc,5460
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/seer.py,sha256=fx2daHPKRXXNsQYFKI8S0x879WX4FM7uSFAmf2AGWXI,20608
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/data_models.py,sha256=G0i-fnVaK16KWDYVI6w3lvyte6Op7ca_iIC8IfrXmlM,4702
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/price_manager.py,sha256=ciplVu2BnI9D9REq9x9cVlBLlzhzZSMmNWTulfO2YRg,5787
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/seer.py,sha256=5uSKUhyM_3PTguYi9yiD3-E5Famb6M_fayBX1NqebAE,20273
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/seer_contracts.py,sha256=kH9nPXsx6UM5er42g2f3fLvy36sY5JM2f_beXeuNgUc,3790
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/seer_subgraph_handler.py,sha256=KKRI493VNNAY9tR1AjzNraeH76MvDsBV6GsiLZas0_Y,9859
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/seer_subgraph_handler.py,sha256=v7gOlRRsbj1xpQiz3D3TE6gbO8_Itg2xhPeTqU9DBsc,9701
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/subgraph_data_models.py,sha256=0izxS8Mtzonfdl9UqvFVXrdj0hVzieroekXhogfZKCw,1817
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/monitor/financial_metrics/financial_metrics.py,sha256=fjIgjDIx5MhH5mwf7S0cspLOOSU3elYLhGYoIiM26mU,2746
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/monitor/markets/manifold.py,sha256=TS4ERwTfQnot8dhekNyVNhJYf5ysYsjF-9v5_kM3aVI,3334
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/monitor/markets/metaculus.py,sha256=LOnyWWBFdg10-cTWdb76nOsNjDloO8OfMT85GBzRCFI,1455
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/monitor/markets/omen.py,sha256=EqiJYTvDbSu7fBpbrBmCuf3fc6GHr4MxWrBGa69MIyc,3305
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/monitor/markets/polymarket.py,sha256=wak8o4BYaGbLpshQD12OrsqNABdanyID6ql95lEG2io,1870
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/monitor/monitor.py,sha256=yvSXwV-3DSAm3vsFZnFC9jEQzlaB9KUOxI6pOyNKGQk,14147
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/monitor/monitor_app.py,sha256=-_6w_ZvQ-Ad5qaeuo7NKTXUOOZ_6OrR8jMe25BGOY4k,4615
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/monitor/monitor_settings.py,sha256=Xiozs3AsufuJ04JOe1vjUri-IAMWHjjmc2ugGGiHNH4,947
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/py.typed,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TImW-5JCeuQeRkm5NMpJWZG3hSuFU,0
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/_generic_value.py,sha256=pD_PI13lpPp1gFoljHwa_Lzlp-u2pu0m-Z7LcxwDM2U,10618
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/balances.py,sha256=Osab21btfJDw2Y-jT_TV-KHGrseCRxcsYeW6WcOMB8E,1050
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/betting_strategies/kelly_criterion.py,sha256=L9yp3m_81i-y85dGZH1rYRv9YXYYt1w3RGroFAAYSbw,4873
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/betting_strategies/market_moving.py,sha256=36ucOuF38bdB4rnSPNjC1qpidBo30Ff4P5Kb-7emKEQ,5469
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/betting_strategies/minimum_bet_to_win.py,sha256=-FUSuQQgjcWSSnoFxnlAyTeilY6raJABJVM2QKkFqAY,438
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/betting_strategies/kelly_criterion.py,sha256=duylr4I06L0-Vpeomatzt3_dxs6bijt41TJPwm1YjRg,4873
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/betting_strategies/stretch_bet_between.py,sha256=THMXwFlskvzbjnX_OiYtDSzI8XVFyULWfP2525_9UGc,429
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/betting_strategies/utils.py,sha256=68zFWUj43GUaSpOPowVrbI-t6qbCE29RsVHNzCVuJ9U,175
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/caches/db_cache.py,sha256=rZIGhgijquwwPtp_qncSAPR1SDF2XxIVZL1ir0fgzWw,12127
@@ -93,7 +83,7 @@ prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/caches/inmemory_cache.py,sha256=ZW5iI5rmjq
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/caches/serializers.py,sha256=vFDx4fsPxclXp2q0sv27j4al_M_Tj9aR2JJP-xNHQXA,2151
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/contract.py,sha256=pdr9ZYmj4QVUfgVKdvOU6ucYdBpJGdha_FMR_LgtcEs,22912
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/costs.py,sha256=EaAJ7v9laD4VEV3d8B44M4u3_oEO_H16jRVCdoZ93Uw,954
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/cow/cow_order.py,sha256=nZafUa5d23mFnEL2arm3jLdqdA9zl-z_fN39ceovwg4,9079
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/cow/cow_order.py,sha256=-nuV2rrLKWKnMn7mN3knRdRemwGiq46OY6m6jX4sm7c,9219
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/custom_exceptions.py,sha256=Fh8z1fbwONvP4-j7AmV_PuEcoqb6-QXa9PJ9m7guMcM,93
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/datetime_utc.py,sha256=8_WackjtjC8zHXrhQFTGQ6e6Fz_6llWoKR4CSFvIv9I,2766
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/db/db_manager.py,sha256=GtzHH1NLl8HwqC8Z7s6eTlIQXuV0blxfaV2PeQrBnfQ,3013
@@ -104,11 +94,11 @@ prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/image_gen/image_gen.py,sha256=i7ole0NMprEL
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/image_gen/market_thumbnail_gen.py,sha256=jgOow4zw6g8dIJrog6Tp-3NQs4wjUJ3VgVKyMQv-0QM,1286
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/ipfs/ipfs_handler.py,sha256=CTTMfTvs_8PH4kAtlQby2aeEKwgpmxtuGbd4oYIdJ2A,1201
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/is_invalid.py,sha256=TAHQXiiusAU45xJ11ZyEP7PnEfcjfzVG7qHRbsHiAd0,5335
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/is_predictable.py,sha256=qVd6zqay2Dg2fyeAuZvAFqSHMg71TcPfCZULsVk2XvA,6797
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/is_predictable.py,sha256=gAis7mrHeK5RwMERYR9QJb2rF7lHvCxL6hlOrswSqSo,6911
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/langfuse_.py,sha256=jI_4ROxqo41CCnWGS1vN_AeDVhRzLMaQLxH3kxDu3L8,1153
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/langfuse_client_utils.py,sha256=636bHCxwfWSbQYQQ0ipeyJUDXCbAC1zP6ZqzeLL2GJk,6582
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/langfuse_client_utils.py,sha256=6IvsqqNNfBtwonAqcdhkDi-GN0pMS8dID3vFGUZoEoM,6626
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/omen/reality_accuracy.py,sha256=M1SF7iSW1gVlQSTskdVFTn09uPLST23YeipVIWj54io,2236
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/omen/sell_positions.py,sha256=7b2qHGQ_2V3ke_UTR9wQeJW88z5ub1GTre9Y_zd4e9E,2387
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/omen/sell_positions.py,sha256=Q4oI7_QI3AkyxlH10VvxDahYVrphQa1Wnox2Ce_cf_k,2452
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/parallelism.py,sha256=6Gou0hbjtMZrYvxjTDFUDZuxmE2nqZVbb6hkg1hF82A,1022
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/relevant_news_analysis/data_models.py,sha256=95l84aztFaxcRLLcRQ46yKJbIlOEuDAbIGLouyliDzA,1316
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/relevant_news_analysis/relevant_news_analysis.py,sha256=CddJem7tk15NAudJDwmuL8znTycbR-YI8kTNtd3LzG8,5474
@@ -124,10 +114,10 @@ prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/tokens/main_token.py,sha256=1rbwpdCusPgQIV
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/tokens/token_utils.py,sha256=fhs-FH9m9IbzGa-30R3ZleSKLeKfLEDoJ7F5Om285Vk,1369
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/tokens/usd.py,sha256=yuW8iPPtcpP4eLH2nORMDAfztcq0Nv2ascSrCquF1f8,3115
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/transaction_cache.py,sha256=K5YKNL2_tR10Iw2TD9fuP-CTGpBbZtNdgbd0B_R7pjg,1814
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/utils.py,sha256=AC2a68jwASMWuQi-w8twl8b_M52YwrEJ81abmuEaqMY,6661
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/utils.py,sha256=Jzpck3_QwShhejhgbAhmNxPSOPQJssBQep0eVemVjZ4,7064
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/web3_utils.py,sha256=zRq-eeBGWt8uUGN9G_WfjmJ0eVvO8aWE9S0Pz_Y6AOA,12342
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.64.12.dev660.dist-info/LICENSE,sha256=6or154nLLU6bELzjh0mCreFjt0m2v72zLi3yHE0QbeE,7650
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.64.12.dev660.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=wajlfqxBT6kAwuG6yP5PWxB4v6eTM9li14k9m9SAaaU,8749
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.64.12.dev660.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=b4K_helf-jlQoXBBETfwnf4B04YC67LOev0jo4fX5m8,88
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.64.12.dev660.dist-info/entry_points.txt,sha256=m8PukHbeH5g0IAAmOf_1Ahm-sGAMdhSSRQmwtpmi2s8,81
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.64.12.dev660.dist-info/RECORD,,
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.65.0.dist-info/LICENSE,sha256=6or154nLLU6bELzjh0mCreFjt0m2v72zLi3yHE0QbeE,7650
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.65.0.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=y1MAlJYLGomNEXjCKul5qGed38uRLULoYAtzh-xFZ2E,8734
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.65.0.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=b4K_helf-jlQoXBBETfwnf4B04YC67LOev0jo4fX5m8,88
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.65.0.dist-info/entry_points.txt,sha256=m8PukHbeH5g0IAAmOf_1Ahm-sGAMdhSSRQmwtpmi2s8,81
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.65.0.dist-info/RECORD,,

prediction_market_agent_tooling/monitor/financial_metrics/financial_metrics.py

@@ -1,68 +0,0 @@
-import numpy as np
-import pandas as pd
-
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.data_models import (
-    SharpeOutput,
-    SimulatedBetDetail,
-)
-
-
-class SharpeRatioCalculator:
-    def __init__(
-        self, details: list[SimulatedBetDetail], risk_free_rate: float = 0.0
-    ) -> None:
-        self.details = details
-        self.df = pd.DataFrame([d.model_dump() for d in self.details])
-        self.risk_free_rate = risk_free_rate
-
-    def __has_df_valid_columns_else_exception(
-        self, required_columns: list[str]
-    ) -> None:
-        if not set(required_columns).issubset(self.df.columns):
-            raise ValueError(
-                f"Dataframe doesn't contain all the required columns. {required_columns=} {self.df.columns=}"
-            )
-
-    def prepare_wallet_daily_balance_df(
-        self, timestamp_col_name: str, profit_col_name: str
-    ) -> pd.DataFrame:
-        self.__has_df_valid_columns_else_exception(
-            [timestamp_col_name, profit_col_name]
-        )
-        df = self.df.copy()
-        df[timestamp_col_name] = pd.to_datetime(df[timestamp_col_name])
-        df.sort_values(timestamp_col_name, ascending=True, inplace=True)
-
-        df["profit_cumsum"] = df[profit_col_name].cumsum()
-        df["profit_cumsum"] = df["profit_cumsum"] + 50
-
-        df = df.drop_duplicates(subset=timestamp_col_name, keep="last")
-        df.set_index(timestamp_col_name, inplace=True)
-        # We generate a new Dataframe with daily wallet balances, derived by the final wallet balance
-        # from the previous day.
-        wallet_balance_daily_df = df[["profit_cumsum"]].resample("D").ffill()
-        wallet_balance_daily_df.dropna(inplace=True)
-        wallet_balance_daily_df["returns"] = wallet_balance_daily_df[
-            "profit_cumsum"
-        ].pct_change()
-        return wallet_balance_daily_df
-
-    def calculate_annual_sharpe_ratio(
-        self, timestamp_col_name: str = "timestamp", profit_col_name: str = "sim_profit"
-    ) -> SharpeOutput:
-        wallet_daily_balance_df = self.prepare_wallet_daily_balance_df(
-            timestamp_col_name=timestamp_col_name, profit_col_name=profit_col_name
-        )
-
-        daily_volatility = wallet_daily_balance_df["returns"].std()
-        annualized_volatility = daily_volatility * np.sqrt(365)
-        mean_daily_return = wallet_daily_balance_df["returns"].mean()
-        daily_sharpe_ratio = (
-            mean_daily_return - self.risk_free_rate
-        ) / daily_volatility
-        annualized_sharpe_ratio = daily_sharpe_ratio * np.sqrt(365)
-        return SharpeOutput(
-            annualized_volatility=annualized_volatility,
-            mean_daily_return=mean_daily_return,
-            annualized_sharpe_ratio=annualized_sharpe_ratio,
-        )

prediction_market_agent_tooling/monitor/markets/manifold.py

@@ -1,90 +0,0 @@
-import typing as t
-
-from google.cloud.functions_v2.types.functions import Function
-
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.config import APIKeys
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.constants import MARKET_TYPE_KEY
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.data_models import ResolvedBet
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.manifold.api import (
-    get_authenticated_user,
-    get_resolved_manifold_bets,
-    manifold_to_generic_resolved_bet,
-)
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.markets import MarketType
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.monitor.monitor import (
-    DeployedAgent,
-    KubernetesCronJob,
-)
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.utils import DatetimeUTC
-
-
-class DeployedManifoldAgent(DeployedAgent):
-    manifold_user_id: str
-
-    @property
-    def public_id(self) -> str:
-        return self.manifold_user_id
-
-    def get_resolved_bets(self) -> list[ResolvedBet]:
-        bets, markets = get_resolved_manifold_bets(
-            user_id=self.manifold_user_id,
-            start_time=self.start_time,
-            end_time=self.end_time,
-        )
-        return [manifold_to_generic_resolved_bet(b, m) for b, m in zip(bets, markets)]
-
-    @classmethod
-    def from_env_vars_without_prefix(
-        cls: t.Type["DeployedManifoldAgent"],
-        env_vars: dict[str, t.Any] | None = None,
-        extra_vars: dict[str, t.Any] | None = None,
-    ) -> "DeployedManifoldAgent":
-        # If manifold_user_id is not provided, try to use it from APIKeys initialized from env_vars (will work in case that secret manifold api key was in the env).
-        api_keys = APIKeys(**env_vars) if env_vars else None
-        if (
-            env_vars
-            and "manifold_user_id" not in env_vars
-            and api_keys
-            and api_keys.MANIFOLD_API_KEY is not None
-            and api_keys.MANIFOLD_API_KEY
-            != APIKeys().MANIFOLD_API_KEY  # Check that it didn't get if from the default env.
-        ):
-            env_vars["manifold_user_id"] = api_keys.manifold_user_id
-        return super().from_env_vars_without_prefix(
-            env_vars=env_vars, extra_vars=extra_vars
-        )
-
-    @staticmethod
-    def from_api_keys(
-        name: str,
-        start_time: DatetimeUTC,
-        api_keys: APIKeys,
-    ) -> "DeployedManifoldAgent":
-        return DeployedManifoldAgent(
-            name=name,
-            start_time=start_time,
-            manifold_user_id=get_authenticated_user(
-                api_key=api_keys.manifold_api_key.get_secret_value()
-            ).id,
-        )
-
-    @classmethod
-    def from_all_gcp_functions(
-        cls: t.Type["DeployedManifoldAgent"],
-        filter_: t.Callable[[Function], bool] = lambda function: function.labels[
-            MARKET_TYPE_KEY
-        ]
-        == MarketType.MANIFOLD.value,
-    ) -> t.Sequence["DeployedManifoldAgent"]:
-        return super().from_all_gcp_functions(filter_=filter_)
-
-    @classmethod
-    def from_all_gcp_cronjobs(
-        cls: t.Type["DeployedManifoldAgent"],
-        namespace: str,
-        filter_: t.Callable[
-            [KubernetesCronJob], bool
-        ] = lambda cronjob: cronjob.metadata.labels[MARKET_TYPE_KEY]
-        == MarketType.MANIFOLD.value,
-    ) -> t.Sequence["DeployedManifoldAgent"]:
-        return super().from_all_gcp_cronjobs(namespace=namespace, filter_=filter_)