prediction-market-agent-tooling 0.16.0__py3-none-any.whl → 0.17.0__py3-none-any.whl

prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/agents.py

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ from prediction_market_agent_tooling.benchmark.utils import (
     OutcomePrediction,
     Prediction,
 )
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.gtypes import Probability
 
 
 class AbstractBenchmarkedAgent:
@@ -86,7 +87,8 @@ class RandomAgent(AbstractBenchmarkedAgent):
         p_yes, confidence = random.random(), random.random()
         return Prediction(
             outcome_prediction=OutcomePrediction(
-                p_yes=p_yes,
+                decision=p_yes > 0.5,
+                p_yes=Probability(p_yes),
                 confidence=confidence,
                 info_utility=None,
             ),
@@ -109,7 +111,8 @@ class FixedAgent(AbstractBenchmarkedAgent):
         p_yes, confidence = 1.0 if self.fixed_answer else 0.0, 1.0
         return Prediction(
             outcome_prediction=OutcomePrediction(
-                p_yes=p_yes,
+                decision=self.fixed_answer,
+                p_yes=Probability(p_yes),
                 confidence=confidence,
                 info_utility=None,
             ),

prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/utils.py

@@ -3,12 +3,11 @@ import typing as t
 
 from pydantic import BaseModel
 
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.agent import Answer
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.data_models import Resolution
 
 
-class OutcomePrediction(BaseModel):
-    p_yes: float
-    confidence: float
+class OutcomePrediction(Answer):
     info_utility: t.Optional[float]
 
     @property

prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent.py

@@ -6,6 +6,8 @@ import typing as t
 from datetime import datetime
 
 from loguru import logger
+from pydantic import BaseModel, BeforeValidator
+from typing_extensions import Annotated
 
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.config import APIKeys, PrivateCredentials
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.constants import (
@@ -21,6 +23,7 @@ from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.gcp.utils import (
     gcp_function_is_active,
     gcp_resolve_api_keys_secrets,
 )
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.gtypes import Probability
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.agent_market import (
     AgentMarket,
     FilterBy,
@@ -39,6 +42,40 @@ from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.utils import DatetimeWithTimezone, ut
 MAX_AVAILABLE_MARKETS = 20
 
 
+def to_boolean_outcome(value: str | bool) -> bool:
+    if isinstance(value, bool):
+        return value
+
+    elif isinstance(value, str):
+        value = value.lower().strip()
+
+        if value in {"true", "yes", "y", "1"}:
+            return True
+
+        elif value in {"false", "no", "n", "0"}:
+            return False
+
+        else:
+            raise ValueError(f"Expected a boolean string, but got {value}")
+
+    else:
+        raise ValueError(f"Expected a boolean or a string, but got {value}")
+
+
+Decision = Annotated[bool, BeforeValidator(to_boolean_outcome)]
+
+
+class Answer(BaseModel):
+    decision: Decision  # Warning: p_yes > 0.5 doesn't necessarily mean decision is True! For example, if our p_yes is 55%, but market's p_yes is 80%, then it might be profitable to bet on False.
+    p_yes: Probability
+    confidence: float
+    reasoning: str | None = None
+
+    @property
+    def p_no(self) -> Probability:
+        return Probability(1 - self.p_yes)
+
+
 class DeployableAgent:
     def __init__(self) -> None:
         self.load()
@@ -58,7 +95,7 @@ class DeployableAgent:
         """
         return markets[:1]
 
-    def answer_binary_market(self, market: AgentMarket) -> bool | None:
+    def answer_binary_market(self, market: AgentMarket) -> Answer | None:
         """
         Answer the binary market. This method must be implemented by the subclass.
         """
@@ -157,7 +194,7 @@ def {entrypoint_function_name}(request) -> str:
         if cron_schedule:
             schedule_deployed_gcp_function(fname, cron_schedule=cron_schedule)
 
-    def calculate_bet_amount(self, answer: bool, market: AgentMarket) -> BetAmount:
+    def calculate_bet_amount(self, answer: Answer, market: AgentMarket) -> BetAmount:
         """
         Calculate the bet amount. By default, it returns the minimum bet amount.
         """
@@ -205,7 +242,7 @@ def {entrypoint_function_name}(request) -> str:
                 )
                 market.place_bet(
                     amount=amount,
-                    outcome=result,
+                    outcome=result.decision,
                 )
 
     def after(self, market_type: MarketType) -> None:

prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent_example.py

@@ -1,7 +1,11 @@
 import random
 import typing as t
 
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.agent import DeployableAgent
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.agent import (
+    Answer,
+    DeployableAgent,
+    Probability,
+)
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.agent_market import AgentMarket
 
 
@@ -9,10 +13,16 @@ class DeployableCoinFlipAgent(DeployableAgent):
     def pick_markets(self, markets: t.Sequence[AgentMarket]) -> t.Sequence[AgentMarket]:
         return random.sample(markets, 1)
 
-    def answer_binary_market(self, market: AgentMarket) -> bool | None:
-        return random.choice([True, False])
+    def answer_binary_market(self, market: AgentMarket) -> Answer | None:
+        decision = random.choice([True, False])
+        return Answer(
+            decision=decision,
+            p_yes=Probability(float(decision)),
+            confidence=0.5,
+            reasoning="I flipped a coin to decide.",
+        )
 
 
 class DeployableAlwaysRaiseAgent(DeployableAgent):
-    def answer_binary_market(self, market: AgentMarket) -> bool | None:
+    def answer_binary_market(self, market: AgentMarket) -> Answer | None:
         raise RuntimeError("I always raise!")

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.16.0.dist-info → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.17.0.dist-info}/METADATA

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.1
 Name: prediction-market-agent-tooling
-Version: 0.16.0
+Version: 0.17.0
 Summary: Tools to benchmark, deploy and monitor prediction market agents.
 Author: Gnosis
 Requires-Python: >=3.10,<3.12

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.16.0.dist-info → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.17.0.dist-info}/RECORD

@@ -8,12 +8,12 @@ prediction_market_agent_tooling/abis/omen_oracle.abi.json,sha256=YPZ-FLvd4PA9pYd
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/abis/omen_realitio.abi.json,sha256=7HmFkBF_rq83UTaH2kRRsEfc_WZuf4n-qvkB4nhvweo,15953
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/abis/wxdai.abi.json,sha256=m3qC06Yug-pToI0lSFe1f8e6gKMIulnV3MA2K0X51hI,6055
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/__init__.py,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TImW-5JCeuQeRkm5NMpJWZG3hSuFU,0
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/agents.py,sha256=HtZGjY0En7lmUaLyynZSNO_YjsCg-hlRi6YQ4ZGQyHc,3829
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/agents.py,sha256=HPIFJvackW110ch3UkktbxhU48gMRVo4gQse84Klhdc,4000
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/benchmark.py,sha256=xiHKzZx5GHSsDerFHMZ9j_LXAXnSaITSvv67iPe3MEU,21095
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/utils.py,sha256=mRHhkS-_TrDSh4uyz-d36bKlJdwDk1w6gyfzXUc2Mrs,2875
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/utils.py,sha256=iS1BzyXcCMfMm1Rx--1QCH0pHvBTblTndcDQFbTUJ2s,2897
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/config.py,sha256=Cvl9RWlOEPRzdSE7-ChTyKSMNTgNoOYmtJ0lT5yDqpE,3570
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent.py,sha256=ju-BDe8Ek1mTLWMoIyp_LLcNt2KhxgITa0O8OtgW_ko,7788
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent_example.py,sha256=vwswPCOutCG9vIqJT5lBcI1FZy3QRkNyVbNIJdn6wvk,652
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent.py,sha256=hpk2VvRBHU1d7_tcYaZg5V3bvhehl7ZgUjn3jc6iAMY,8916
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent_example.py,sha256=KaTJm43cwbBZR2BmTEyB1ohChAqwYlBUqaaVumsWQe4,891
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/constants.py,sha256=M5ty8URipYMGe_G-RzxRydK3AFL6CyvmqCraJUrLBnE,82
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/gcp/deploy.py,sha256=CYUgnfy-9XVk04kkxA_5yp0GE9Mw5caYqlFUZQ2j3ks,3739
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/gcp/kubernetes_models.py,sha256=qYIHRxQLac3yxtZ8ChikiPG9O1aUQucHW0muTSm1nto,2627
@@ -63,8 +63,8 @@ prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/safe.py,sha256=gNgcY6ugckx3DbupR8VBezDgh1d
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/singleton.py,sha256=CiIELUiI-OeS7U7eeHEt0rnVhtQGzwoUdAgn_7u_GBM,729
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/utils.py,sha256=6MRfLr5xGPEQGobLz_eCsE_p-XaAeOCcmygwgNCIvqE,5044
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/web3_utils.py,sha256=tl_uN-SpKK4nXpqlSozefzMXpbAe9rFzaCB9IQ0QJxY,8335
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.16.0.dist-info/LICENSE,sha256=6or154nLLU6bELzjh0mCreFjt0m2v72zLi3yHE0QbeE,7650
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.16.0.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=04au1XZEKq0NQvrz0zZ75fDY4tPmxcQGPtimlgEwX6k,5468
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.16.0.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=sP946D7jFCHeNz5Iq4fL4Lu-PrWrFsgfLXbbkciIZwg,88
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.16.0.dist-info/entry_points.txt,sha256=m8PukHbeH5g0IAAmOf_1Ahm-sGAMdhSSRQmwtpmi2s8,81
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.16.0.dist-info/RECORD,,
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.17.0.dist-info/LICENSE,sha256=6or154nLLU6bELzjh0mCreFjt0m2v72zLi3yHE0QbeE,7650
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.17.0.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=Z-mAb4_umw_MR5dyNTEybglqltb3DTvvmOufBifARTk,5468
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.17.0.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=sP946D7jFCHeNz5Iq4fL4Lu-PrWrFsgfLXbbkciIZwg,88
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.17.0.dist-info/entry_points.txt,sha256=m8PukHbeH5g0IAAmOf_1Ahm-sGAMdhSSRQmwtpmi2s8,81
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.17.0.dist-info/RECORD,,