policyengine-uk 2.45.4__py3-none-any.whl → 2.47.2__py3-none-any.whl

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml

@@ -15,14 +15,58 @@ obr:
       2019-01-01: 0.022
       2020-01-01: 0.003
       2021-01-01: 0.059
-      2022-01-01: 0.064
-      2023-01-01: 0.069
-      2024-01-01: 0.047
-      2025-01-01: 0.037
-      2026-01-01: 0.022
-      2027-01-01: 0.021
-      2028-01-01: 0.023
-      2029-01-01: 0.025
+      2022-01-01: 0.1287
+      2023-01-01: 0.0748
+      2024-01-01: 0.0331
+      2025-01-01: 0.0416
+      2026-01-01: 0.0308
+      2027-01-01: 0.0300
+      2028-01-01: 0.0283
+      2029-01-01: 0.0283
+      2030-01-01: 0.0238
+      2031-01-01: 0.0230
+      2032-01-01: 0.0237
+      2033-01-01: 0.0238
+      2034-01-01: 0.0238
+      2035-01-01: 0.0239
+      2036-01-01: 0.0239
+      2037-01-01: 0.0239
+      2038-01-01: 0.0239
+      2039-01-01: 0.0239
+      2040-01-01: 0.0239
+      2041-01-01: 0.0239
+      2042-01-01: 0.0239
+      2043-01-01: 0.0239
+      2044-01-01: 0.0239
+      2045-01-01: 0.0239
+      2046-01-01: 0.0239
+      2047-01-01: 0.0239
+      2048-01-01: 0.0239
+      2049-01-01: 0.0239
+      2050-01-01: 0.0239
+      2051-01-01: 0.0239
+      2052-01-01: 0.0239
+      2053-01-01: 0.0239
+      2054-01-01: 0.0239
+      2055-01-01: 0.0239
+      2056-01-01: 0.0239
+      2057-01-01: 0.0239
+      2058-01-01: 0.0239
+      2059-01-01: 0.0239
+      2060-01-01: 0.0239
+      2061-01-01: 0.0239
+      2062-01-01: 0.0239
+      2063-01-01: 0.0239
+      2064-01-01: 0.0239
+      2065-01-01: 0.0239
+      2066-01-01: 0.0239
+      2067-01-01: 0.0239
+      2068-01-01: 0.0239
+      2069-01-01: 0.0239
+      2070-01-01: 0.0239
+      2071-01-01: 0.0239
+      2072-01-01: 0.0239
+      2073-01-01: 0.0239
     metadata:
       unit: /1
       label: retail price index growth
@@ -45,14 +89,58 @@ obr:
       2019-01-01: 0.022
       2020-01-01: 0.003
       2021-01-01: 0.059
-      2022-01-01: 0.064
-      2023-01-01: 0.069
-      2024-01-01: 0.047
-      2025-01-01: 0.037
-      2026-01-01: 0.022
-      2027-01-01: 0.021
-      2028-01-01: 0.023
-      2029-01-01: 0.025
+      2022-01-01: 0.0644
+      2023-01-01: 0.0688
+      2024-01-01: 0.0467
+      2025-01-01: 0.0371
+      2026-01-01: 0.0216
+      2027-01-01: 0.0207
+      2028-01-01: 0.0225
+      2029-01-01: 0.0253
+      2030-01-01: 0.0292
+      2031-01-01: 0.0332
+      2032-01-01: 0.0371
+      2033-01-01: 0.0374
+      2034-01-01: 0.0377
+      2035-01-01: 0.0380
+      2036-01-01: 0.0383
+      2037-01-01: 0.0383
+      2038-01-01: 0.0383
+      2039-01-01: 0.0383
+      2040-01-01: 0.0383
+      2041-01-01: 0.0383
+      2042-01-01: 0.0383
+      2043-01-01: 0.0383
+      2044-01-01: 0.0383
+      2045-01-01: 0.0383
+      2046-01-01: 0.0383
+      2047-01-01: 0.0383
+      2048-01-01: 0.0383
+      2049-01-01: 0.0383
+      2050-01-01: 0.0383
+      2051-01-01: 0.0383
+      2052-01-01: 0.0383
+      2053-01-01: 0.0383
+      2054-01-01: 0.0383
+      2055-01-01: 0.0383
+      2056-01-01: 0.0383
+      2057-01-01: 0.0383
+      2058-01-01: 0.0383
+      2059-01-01: 0.0383
+      2060-01-01: 0.0383
+      2061-01-01: 0.0383
+      2062-01-01: 0.0383
+      2063-01-01: 0.0383
+      2064-01-01: 0.0383
+      2065-01-01: 0.0383
+      2066-01-01: 0.0383
+      2067-01-01: 0.0383
+      2068-01-01: 0.0383
+      2069-01-01: 0.0383
+      2070-01-01: 0.0383
+      2071-01-01: 0.0383
+      2072-01-01: 0.0383
+      2073-01-01: 0.0383
     metadata:
       unit: /1
       label: average earnings growth
@@ -76,14 +164,58 @@ obr:
       2019-01-01: 0.017
       2020-01-01: 0.006
       2021-01-01: 0.04
-      2022-01-01: 0.1
-      2023-01-01: 0.057
-      2024-01-01: 0.023
-      2025-01-01: 0.032
-      2026-01-01: 0.019
-      2027-01-01: 0.02
-      2028-01-01: 0.02
-      2029-01-01: 0.02
+      2022-01-01: 0.1004
+      2023-01-01: 0.0567
+      2024-01-01: 0.0233
+      2025-01-01: 0.0318
+      2026-01-01: 0.0193
+      2027-01-01: 0.0200
+      2028-01-01: 0.0200
+      2029-01-01: 0.0200
+      2030-01-01: 0.0200
+      2031-01-01: 0.0200
+      2032-01-01: 0.0200
+      2033-01-01: 0.0200
+      2034-01-01: 0.0200
+      2035-01-01: 0.0200
+      2036-01-01: 0.0200
+      2037-01-01: 0.0200
+      2038-01-01: 0.0200
+      2039-01-01: 0.0200
+      2040-01-01: 0.0200
+      2041-01-01: 0.0200
+      2042-01-01: 0.0200
+      2043-01-01: 0.0200
+      2044-01-01: 0.0200
+      2045-01-01: 0.0200
+      2046-01-01: 0.0200
+      2047-01-01: 0.0200
+      2048-01-01: 0.0200
+      2049-01-01: 0.0200
+      2050-01-01: 0.0200
+      2051-01-01: 0.0200
+      2052-01-01: 0.0200
+      2053-01-01: 0.0200
+      2054-01-01: 0.0200
+      2055-01-01: 0.0200
+      2056-01-01: 0.0200
+      2057-01-01: 0.0200
+      2058-01-01: 0.0200
+      2059-01-01: 0.0200
+      2060-01-01: 0.0200
+      2061-01-01: 0.0200
+      2062-01-01: 0.0200
+      2063-01-01: 0.0200
+      2064-01-01: 0.0200
+      2065-01-01: 0.0200
+      2066-01-01: 0.0200
+      2067-01-01: 0.0200
+      2068-01-01: 0.0200
+      2069-01-01: 0.0200
+      2070-01-01: 0.0200
+      2071-01-01: 0.0200
+      2072-01-01: 0.0200
+      2073-01-01: 0.0200
     metadata:
       unit: /1
       label: consumer price index growth
@@ -113,6 +245,68 @@ obr:
         - title: ONS CPI series excluding housing costs
           href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/adhocs/2863consumerpriceindicesseriesexcludingrentsmaintenancerepairsandwaterchargesfortheperiodjanuary1996toapril2025
 
+  cpih:
+    description: Consumer price index including owner occupiers' housing costs year-on-year growth.
+    values:
+      2022-01-01: 0.0877
+      2023-01-01: 0.0555
+      2024-01-01: 0.0320
+      2025-01-01: 0.0374
+      2026-01-01: 0.0227
+      2027-01-01: 0.0210
+      2028-01-01: 0.0205
+      2029-01-01: 0.0209
+      2030-01-01: 0.0224
+      2031-01-01: 0.0230
+      2032-01-01: 0.0237
+      2033-01-01: 0.0238
+      2034-01-01: 0.0238
+      2035-01-01: 0.0239
+      2036-01-01: 0.0239
+      2037-01-01: 0.0239
+      2038-01-01: 0.0239
+      2039-01-01: 0.0239
+      2040-01-01: 0.0239
+      2041-01-01: 0.0239
+      2042-01-01: 0.0239
+      2043-01-01: 0.0239
+      2044-01-01: 0.0239
+      2045-01-01: 0.0239
+      2046-01-01: 0.0239
+      2047-01-01: 0.0239
+      2048-01-01: 0.0239
+      2049-01-01: 0.0239
+      2050-01-01: 0.0239
+      2051-01-01: 0.0239
+      2052-01-01: 0.0239
+      2053-01-01: 0.0239
+      2054-01-01: 0.0239
+      2055-01-01: 0.0239
+      2056-01-01: 0.0239
+      2057-01-01: 0.0239
+      2058-01-01: 0.0239
+      2059-01-01: 0.0239
+      2060-01-01: 0.0239
+      2061-01-01: 0.0239
+      2062-01-01: 0.0239
+      2063-01-01: 0.0239
+      2064-01-01: 0.0239
+      2065-01-01: 0.0239
+      2066-01-01: 0.0239
+      2067-01-01: 0.0239
+      2068-01-01: 0.0239
+      2069-01-01: 0.0239
+      2070-01-01: 0.0239
+      2071-01-01: 0.0239
+      2072-01-01: 0.0239
+      2073-01-01: 0.0239
+    metadata:
+      unit: /1
+      label: CPIH growth
+      reference:
+        - title: OBR EFO March 2025
+          href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
+
   non_labour_income:
     description: Non-labour income year-on-year growth.
     values:
@@ -317,14 +511,58 @@ ons:
     description: Population year-on-year growth.
     values:
       2021-01-01: 0.004
-      2022-01-01: 0.003
-      2023-01-01: 0.014
-      2024-01-01: 0.01
-      2025-01-01: 0.011
-      2026-01-01: 0.007
-      2027-01-01: 0.008
-      2028-01-01: 0.004
-      2029-01-01: 0.005
+      2022-01-01: 0.0093
+      2023-01-01: 0.0131
+      2024-01-01: 0.0107
+      2025-01-01: 0.0072
+      2026-01-01: 0.0038
+      2027-01-01: 0.0037
+      2028-01-01: 0.0040
+      2029-01-01: 0.0044
+      2030-01-01: 0.0045
+      2031-01-01: 0.0043
+      2032-01-01: 0.0042
+      2033-01-01: 0.0041
+      2034-01-01: 0.0040
+      2035-01-01: 0.0039
+      2036-01-01: 0.0038
+      2037-01-01: 0.0037
+      2038-01-01: 0.0036
+      2039-01-01: 0.0035
+      2040-01-01: 0.0035
+      2041-01-01: 0.0034
+      2042-01-01: 0.0034
+      2043-01-01: 0.0033
+      2044-01-01: 0.0032
+      2045-01-01: 0.0032
+      2046-01-01: 0.0031
+      2047-01-01: 0.0030
+      2048-01-01: 0.0029
+      2049-01-01: 0.0028
+      2050-01-01: 0.0027
+      2051-01-01: 0.0025
+      2052-01-01: 0.0024
+      2053-01-01: 0.0022
+      2054-01-01: 0.0021
+      2055-01-01: 0.0020
+      2056-01-01: 0.0019
+      2057-01-01: 0.0018
+      2058-01-01: 0.0017
+      2059-01-01: 0.0016
+      2060-01-01: 0.0016
+      2061-01-01: 0.0016
+      2062-01-01: 0.0015
+      2063-01-01: 0.0015
+      2064-01-01: 0.0015
+      2065-01-01: 0.0015
+      2066-01-01: 0.0015
+      2067-01-01: 0.0015
+      2068-01-01: 0.0015
+      2069-01-01: 0.0015
+      2070-01-01: 0.0015
+      2071-01-01: 0.0015
+      2072-01-01: 0.0015
+      2073-01-01: 0.0014
     metadata:
       unit: /1
       label: population growth

policyengine_uk/simulation.py

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 # Standard library imports
-from typing import Dict, Optional, Union, Type
+from typing import Dict, Optional, Union, Type, List
 
 # Third-party imports
 import numpy as np
@@ -23,9 +23,12 @@ from policyengine_uk.utils.scenario import Scenario
 from policyengine_uk.data.economic_assumptions import (
     extend_single_year_dataset,
 )
+from policyengine_uk.utils.dependencies import get_variable_dependencies
 
 from .tax_benefit_system import CountryTaxBenefitSystem
 
+from microdf import MicroDataFrame
+
 
 class Simulation(CoreSimulation):
     """UK-specific simulation class for calculating tax and benefit outcomes.
@@ -36,6 +39,10 @@ class Simulation(CoreSimulation):
 
     default_input_period: int = 2025
     default_calculation_period: int = 2025
+    baseline: "Simulation"
+
+    calculated_periods: List[str] = []
+    _variable_dependencies: Dict[str, List[str]] = None
 
     def __init__(
         self,
@@ -103,10 +110,6 @@ class Simulation(CoreSimulation):
         else:
             raise ValueError(f"Unsupported dataset type: {dataset.__class__}")
 
-        # Handle behavioral responses for earnings and capital gains
-        self.move_values("employment_income", "employment_income_before_lsr")
-        self.move_values("capital_gains", "capital_gains_before_response")
-
         self.input_variables = self.get_known_variables()
 
         # Universal Credit reform (July 2025). Needs closer integration in the baseline,
@@ -123,6 +126,23 @@ class Simulation(CoreSimulation):
             if scenario.simulation_modifier is not None:
                 scenario.simulation_modifier(self)
 
+        if scenario is not None:
+            self.baseline = Simulation(
+                scenario=None,
+                situation=situation,
+                dataset=dataset,
+                trace=trace,
+            )
+        else:
+            self.baseline = self.clone()
+
+        self.calculated_periods = []
+
+    def reset_calculations(self):
+        for variable in self.tax_benefit_system.variables:
+            if variable not in self.input_variables:
+                self.delete_arrays(variable)
+
     def get_known_variables(self):
         variables = []
         for variable in self.tax_benefit_system.variables:
@@ -167,6 +187,10 @@ class Simulation(CoreSimulation):
         builder.build_from_dict(self.tax_benefit_system, situation, self)
         self.has_axes = builder.has_axes
 
+        self.dataset = UKSingleYearDataset.from_simulation(
+            self, fiscal_year=self.default_input_period
+        )
+
     def build_from_url(self, url: str) -> None:
         """Build simulation from a HuggingFace dataset URL.
 
@@ -199,14 +223,11 @@ class Simulation(CoreSimulation):
         # Determine dataset type and build accordingly
         if UKMultiYearDataset.validate_file_path(dataset, False):
             self.build_from_multi_year_dataset(UKMultiYearDataset(dataset))
-            self.dataset = dataset
         elif UKSingleYearDataset.validate_file_path(dataset, False):
             self.build_from_single_year_dataset(UKSingleYearDataset(dataset))
-            self.dataset = dataset
         else:
             dataset = Dataset.from_file(dataset, self.default_input_period)
             self.build_from_dataset(dataset)
-            self.dataset = dataset
 
     def build_from_dataframe(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
         """Build simulation from a pandas DataFrame.
@@ -407,13 +428,43 @@ class Simulation(CoreSimulation):
                 simulation.set_input(variable_target, known_period, array)
                 holder.delete_arrays(known_period)
 
+    def calculate_all(self, year: int) -> None:
+        person, benunit, household = (
+            pd.DataFrame(),
+            pd.DataFrame(),
+            pd.DataFrame(),
+        )
+        period = str(year)
+        for variable in self.tax_benefit_system.variables.values():
+            entity = variable.entity.key
+            result = self.calculate(variable.name, period).values
+            if entity == "person":
+                person[variable.name] = result
+            elif entity == "benunit":
+                benunit[variable.name] = result
+            elif entity == "household":
+                household[variable.name] = result
+
+        person = MicroDataFrame(person, weights="person_weight")
+        benunit = MicroDataFrame(benunit, weights="benunit_weight")
+        household = MicroDataFrame(household, weights="household_weight")
+
+        return UKSingleYearDataset(
+            person=person,
+            benunit=benunit,
+            household=household,
+            fiscal_year=year,
+        )
+
     def calculate(
         self,
-        variable_name: str,
+        variable_name: str = None,
         period: str = None,
         map_to: str = None,
         decode_enums: bool = False,
     ):
+        if variable_name is None:
+            return self.calculate_all()
         tracer: SimpleTracer = self.tracer
         if len(tracer.stack) == 0:
             # Only decode enums to string values when we're not within
@@ -428,3 +479,127 @@ class Simulation(CoreSimulation):
         return super().calculate(
             variable_name, period, map_to=map_to, decode_enums=decode_enums
         )
+
+    def apply_dynamics(self, year: int):
+        """Apply dynamics to the simulation for a specific year.
+
+        Args:
+            year: Year to apply dynamics for
+        """
+        # Apply OBR labour supply dynamics if enabled
+        from policyengine_uk.dynamics.labour_supply import (
+            apply_labour_supply_responses,
+        )
+
+        return apply_labour_supply_responses(self, year=str(year))
+
+    def get_variable_dependencies(self, variable_name: str, depth: int = 1):
+        if self._variable_dependencies is None:
+            self._variable_dependencies = {}
+            self._example_simulation = Simulation(
+                situation={
+                    "age": 30,
+                },
+                trace=True,
+            )
+            self._example_simulation.calculate("hbai_household_net_income")
+            for (
+                variable
+            ) in self._example_simulation.tax_benefit_system.variables:
+                try:
+                    dependencies = get_variable_dependencies(
+                        variable, self._example_simulation
+                    )
+                    self._variable_dependencies[variable] = dependencies
+                except Exception as e:
+                    self._variable_dependencies[variable] = []
+
+        if variable_name not in self._variable_dependencies:
+            raise ValueError(
+                f"Variable '{variable_name}' not found in simulation dependencies."
+            )
+        dependencies = self._variable_dependencies[variable_name]
+
+        if depth <= 1:
+            return dependencies
+
+        all_dependencies = set(dependencies)
+        for dep in dependencies:
+            try:
+                sub_dependencies = self.get_variable_dependencies(
+                    dep, depth - 1
+                )
+                all_dependencies.update(sub_dependencies)
+            except ValueError:
+                continue
+        return list(all_dependencies)
+
+    def compare(
+        self,
+        other: "Simulation",
+        variables: list[str] = None,
+        period: str = None,
+        change_only: bool = False,
+    ):
+        """Compare two simulations for a specific variable list.
+
+        Args:
+            other: Another Simulation instance to compare against
+            variables: List of variable names to compare. If None, compares all variables.
+
+        Returns:
+            DataFrame with comparison results
+        """
+
+        if variables is None:
+            variables = self.input_variables + [
+                "hbai_household_net_income",
+            ]
+
+        df_self = self.calculate_dataframe(variables, period=period)
+        df_other = other.calculate_dataframe(variables, period=period)
+
+        df_combined = pd.concat(
+            [df_self, df_other], axis=1, keys=["self", "other"]
+        )
+        # Reset columns, then order by variable name first then self/other
+        df_combined.columns = [
+            f"{var}_{entity}" for entity, var in df_combined.columns
+        ]
+        # Add change where applicable (numeric only)
+        for variable in variables:
+            self_col = f"{variable}_self"
+            other_col = f"{variable}_other"
+            try:
+                df_combined[f"{variable}_change"] = (
+                    df_combined[other_col] - df_combined[self_col]
+                )
+            except:
+                # For other data types, use XOR
+                df_combined[f"{variable}_change"] = (
+                    df_combined[other_col] != df_combined[self_col]
+                )
+        columns = []
+
+        for variable in variables:
+            columns.extend(
+                [
+                    f"{variable}_self",
+                    f"{variable}_other",
+                    f"{variable}_change",
+                ]
+            )
+
+        if change_only:
+            variables_to_include = []
+            for variable in variables:
+                if df_combined[f"{variable}_change"].mean() > 0:
+                    variables_to_include.extend(
+                        [
+                            f"{variable}_self",
+                            f"{variable}_other",
+                            f"{variable}_change",
+                        ]
+                    )
+            columns = variables_to_include
+        return df_combined[columns]

policyengine_uk/tax_benefit_system.py

@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ from policyengine_core.parameters.operations.uprate_parameters import (
     uprate_parameters,
 )
 from policyengine_core.taxbenefitsystems import TaxBenefitSystem
+from policyengine_core.variables import Variable
 
 # PolicyEngine UK imports
 from policyengine_uk.entities import BenUnit, Household, Person
@@ -56,6 +57,8 @@ class CountryTaxBenefitSystem(TaxBenefitSystem):
     modelled_policies = COUNTRY_DIR / "modelled_policies.yaml"
     auto_carry_over_input_variables: bool = True
 
+    variables: Dict[str, Variable]
+
     def reset_parameter_caches(self):
         """Reset all caches in the tax-benefit system."""
         self._parameters_at_instant_cache = {}
@@ -102,7 +105,7 @@ class CountryTaxBenefitSystem(TaxBenefitSystem):
     def __init__(self):
         """Initialize the UK tax-benefit system with entities and parameters."""
         self._parameters_at_instant_cache: Dict[str, Any] = {}
-        self.variables: Dict[Any, Any] = {}
+        self.variables = {}
 
         # Create copies of entity classes to avoid modifying originals
         person, benunit, household = (

policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/reforms_config.yaml

@@ -1,10 +1,10 @@
 reforms:
 - name: Raise basic rate by 1pp
-  expected_impact: 7.6
+  expected_impact: 8.0
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[0].rate: 0.21
 - name: Raise higher rate by 1pp
-  expected_impact: 4.7
+  expected_impact: 4.8
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].rate: 0.42
 - name: Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year
@@ -12,22 +12,22 @@ reforms:
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount: 13000
 - name: Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child
-  expected_impact: -1.4
+  expected_impact: -1.3
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.child_benefit.amount.additional: 25
 - name: Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%
-  expected_impact: -39.7
+  expected_impact: -33.8
   parameters:
     gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.reduction_rate: 0.2
 - name: Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%
-  expected_impact: 12.3
+  expected_impact: 12.7
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.1
 - name: Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp
-  expected_impact: 18.9
+  expected_impact: 20.9
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.vat.standard_rate: 0.22
 - name: Raise additional rate by 3pp
-  expected_impact: 5.4
+  expected_impact: 5.1
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].rate: 0.48

policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/test_validity.py

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-from policyengine import Simulation
+from policyengine_uk import Microsimulation
 import pytest
 
 YEARS = range(2024, 2026)
@@ -6,8 +6,7 @@ YEARS = range(2024, 2026)
 
 @pytest.mark.parametrize("year", YEARS)
 def test_not_nan(year):
-    baseline = Simulation(scope="macro", country="uk")
-    baseline = baseline.baseline_simulation
+    baseline = Microsimulation()
     for variable in baseline.tax_benefit_system.variables:
         requires_computation_after = baseline.tax_benefit_system.variables[
             variable