policyengine-uk 2.40.1__py3-none-any.whl → 2.65.6__py3-none-any.whl

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
Files changed (258) hide show
  1. policyengine_uk/__init__.py +5 -3
  2. policyengine_uk/data/__init__.py +1 -0
  3. policyengine_uk/data/dataset_schema.py +70 -18
  4. policyengine_uk/data/economic_assumptions.py +36 -10
  5. policyengine_uk/data/filter_dataset.py +52 -0
  6. policyengine_uk/dynamics/labour_supply.py +343 -0
  7. policyengine_uk/dynamics/participation.py +629 -0
  8. policyengine_uk/dynamics/progression.py +384 -0
  9. policyengine_uk/microsimulation.py +105 -0
  10. policyengine_uk/model_api.py +1 -0
  11. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/boe/base_rate.yaml +34 -0
  12. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/boe/index.yaml +2 -0
  13. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/behavioral_responses/employee_salary_sacrifice_reduction_rate.yaml +14 -0
  14. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/behavioral_responses/salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut_rate.yaml +22 -0
  15. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/cec/state_pension_increase.yaml +1 -1
  16. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/ubi_center/carbon_tax.yaml +2 -2
  17. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/ubi_center/land_value_tax.yaml +3 -3
  18. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dcms/bbc/tv_licence/colour.yaml +5 -5
  19. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dfe/education_spending.yaml +1 -1
  20. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dft/rail/fare_index.yaml +32 -0
  21. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dft/rail/prior_law_fare_index.yaml +32 -0
  22. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dft/rail/ridership_index.yaml +30 -0
  23. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dft/spending.yaml +2 -2
  24. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/ESA/income/earn_disregard.yaml +1 -1
  25. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/ESA/income/income_disregard_couple.yaml +1 -1
  26. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/ESA/income/income_disregard_lone_parent.yaml +1 -1
  27. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/ESA/income/income_disregard_single.yaml +1 -1
  28. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/ESA/income/pension_disregard.yaml +1 -1
  29. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/IIDB/maximum.yaml +1 -1
  30. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/JSA/contrib/amount_over_25.yaml +1 -1
  31. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/JSA/contrib/earn_disregard.yaml +1 -1
  32. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/JSA/contrib/pension_disregard.yaml +1 -1
  33. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/JSA/income/amount_18_24.yaml +7 -7
  34. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/JSA/income/amount_over_25.yaml +7 -7
  35. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/JSA/income/income_disregard_couple.yaml +1 -1
  36. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/JSA/income/income_disregard_lone_parent.yaml +1 -1
  37. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/JSA/income/income_disregard_single.yaml +1 -1
  38. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/LHA/shared_accommodation_age_threshold.yaml +12 -0
  39. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/attendance_allowance/higher.yaml +7 -7
  40. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/attendance_allowance/lower.yaml +7 -7
  41. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/benefit_cap.yaml +3 -3
  42. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/carer_premium/couple.yaml +2 -2
  43. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/carer_premium/single.yaml +6 -6
  44. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/carers_allowance/rate.yaml +7 -7
  45. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/disability_premia/disability_couple.yaml +1 -1
  46. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/disability_premia/enhanced_couple.yaml +1 -1
  47. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/disability_premia/enhanced_single.yaml +1 -1
  48. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/disability_premia/severe_couple.yaml +1 -1
  49. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/dla/mobility/higher.yaml +4 -4
  50. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/dla/mobility/lower.yaml +8 -8
  51. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/dla/self_care/higher.yaml +7 -7
  52. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/dla/self_care/lower.yaml +8 -8
  53. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/dla/self_care/middle.yaml +7 -7
  54. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/allowances/lone_parent/aged.yaml +1 -1
  55. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/allowances/lone_parent/older.yaml +3 -3
  56. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/allowances/single/aged.yaml +1 -1
  57. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/allowances/single/older.yaml +3 -3
  58. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/means_test/income_disregard/worker.yaml +1 -1
  59. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/non_dep_deduction/amount.yaml +1 -1
  60. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/takeup.yaml +7 -7
  61. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/income_support/amounts/amount_16_24.yaml +1 -1
  62. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/income_support/amounts/amount_couples_over_18.yaml +1 -1
  63. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/income_support/means_test/earn_disregard.yaml +1 -1
  64. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/income_support/means_test/income_disregard_couple.yaml +1 -1
  65. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/income_support/means_test/income_disregard_lone_parent.yaml +1 -1
  66. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/income_support/means_test/income_disregard_single.yaml +1 -1
  67. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/income_support/means_test/pension_disregard.yaml +1 -1
  68. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/income_support/takeup.yaml +7 -7
  69. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/carer/addition.yaml +4 -4
  70. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/minimum_guarantee.yaml +9 -9
  71. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/severe_disability/addition.yaml +3 -3
  72. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/savings_credit/threshold.yaml +5 -5
  73. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pip/daily_living/enhanced.yaml +7 -7
  74. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pip/daily_living/standard.yaml +8 -8
  75. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pip/mobility/enhanced.yaml +4 -4
  76. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pip/mobility/standard.yaml +9 -9
  77. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/sda/maximum.yaml +7 -7
  78. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/state_pension/basic_state_pension/amount.yaml +11 -11
  79. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/state_pension/new_state_pension/amount.yaml +4 -4
  80. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/tax_credits/child_tax_credit/limit/child_count.yaml +10 -1
  81. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/tax_credits/child_tax_credit/takeup.yaml +7 -7
  82. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/tax_credits/working_tax_credit/takeup.yaml +7 -7
  83. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/elements/carer/amount.yaml +3 -3
  84. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/elements/child/amount.yaml +2 -4
  85. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/elements/child/disabled/amount.yaml +2 -4
  86. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/elements/child/first/higher_amount.yaml +6 -8
  87. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/elements/child/limit/child_count.yaml +6 -1
  88. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/elements/child/severely_disabled/amount.yaml +3 -5
  89. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/elements/childcare/cap.yaml +2 -6
  90. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/elements/disabled/amount.yaml +4 -6
  91. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/elements/housing/non_dep_deduction/amount.yaml +4 -1
  92. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/rebalancing/active.yaml +9 -0
  93. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/rebalancing/new_claimant_health_element.yaml +9 -0
  94. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/rebalancing/standard_allowance_uplift.yaml +13 -0
  95. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/standard_allowance/amount.yaml +5 -5
  96. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/taxable_income_test/maximum_taxable_income.yaml +2 -1
  97. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/taxable_income_test/use_maximum_taxable_income.yaml +1 -0
  98. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dynamic/obr_labour_supply_assumptions.yaml +9 -0
  99. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/create_economic_assumption_indices.py +1 -1
  100. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml +522 -153
  101. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/cgt/additional_rate.yaml +5 -0
  102. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/cgt/basic_rate.yaml +5 -0
  103. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/cgt/higher_rate.yaml +4 -0
  104. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/child_benefit/amount/additional.yaml +6 -6
  105. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/child_benefit/amount/eldest.yaml +8 -8
  106. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/child_benefit/takeup/by_age.yaml +1 -1
  107. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py +464 -0
  108. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/petrol_and_diesel.yaml +86 -10
  109. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/personal_allowance/amount.yaml +6 -0
  110. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/income_tax/earned_taxable_income_exclusions.yaml +2 -1
  111. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/income_tax/income_tax_additions.yaml +1 -0
  112. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/income_tax/rates/dividends.yaml +12 -0
  113. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/income_tax/rates/property.yaml +46 -0
  114. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/income_tax/rates/savings.yaml +46 -0
  115. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/income_tax/rates/scotland/rates.yaml +2 -2
  116. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/income_tax/rates/uk.yaml +14 -2
  117. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/class_1/rates/employee/additional.yaml +4 -6
  118. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/class_1/rates/employer.yaml +3 -3
  119. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/class_1/thresholds/secondary_threshold.yaml +14 -4
  120. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/class_2/flat_rate.yaml +2 -2
  121. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/salary_sacrifice_pension_cap.yaml +16 -0
  122. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/interest_rates/index.yaml +12 -0
  123. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/interest_rates/plan_1/boe_margin.yaml +11 -0
  124. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/interest_rates/plan_2/additional_rate.yaml +27 -0
  125. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/interest_rates/plan_2/index.yaml +16 -0
  126. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/interest_rates/plan_2/upper_threshold.yaml +48 -0
  127. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/interest_rates/postgraduate_additional_rate.yaml +11 -0
  128. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/postgraduate_repayment_rate.yaml +9 -0
  129. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/repayment_rate.yaml +9 -0
  130. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/thresholds/plan_1.yaml +25 -0
  131. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/thresholds/plan_2.yaml +58 -0
  132. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/thresholds/plan_4.yaml +19 -0
  133. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/thresholds/plan_5.yaml +16 -0
  134. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/student_loans/thresholds/postgraduate.yaml +21 -0
  135. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/vat/reduced_rate_share.yaml +3 -3
  136. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/indices/private_rent_index.yaml +9 -9
  137. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/revenue_scotland/lbtt/non_residential.yaml +2 -2
  138. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/revenue_scotland/lbtt/rent.yaml +2 -2
  139. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/revenue_scotland/lbtt/residential/first_time_buyer_rate.yaml +2 -2
  140. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/revenue_scotland/lbtt/residential/rate.yaml +2 -2
  141. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/wra/land_transaction_tax/non_residential.yaml +2 -2
  142. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/wra/land_transaction_tax/rent.yaml +2 -2
  143. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/wra/land_transaction_tax/residential/higher_rate.yaml +1 -1
  144. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/wra/land_transaction_tax/residential/primary.yaml +2 -2
  145. policyengine_uk/parameters/household/consumption/carbon/consumption.yaml +8 -6
  146. policyengine_uk/parameters/household/consumption/carbon/intensity.yaml +4 -1
  147. policyengine_uk/parameters/household/consumption/carbon/production.yaml +12 -7
  148. policyengine_uk/parameters/household/consumption/carbon/production_by_source.yaml +76 -41
  149. policyengine_uk/parameters/household/consumption/fuel/prices/petrol.yaml +1 -1
  150. policyengine_uk/parameters/household/poverty/absolute_poverty_threshold_bhc.yaml +1 -1
  151. policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/adjust_budgets.py +0 -1
  152. policyengine_uk/scenarios/__init__.py +4 -0
  153. policyengine_uk/scenarios/pip_reform.py +23 -0
  154. policyengine_uk/scenarios/reindex_benefit_cap.py +32 -0
  155. policyengine_uk/scenarios/repeal_two_child_limit.py +10 -0
  156. policyengine_uk/scenarios/uc_reform.py +50 -0
  157. policyengine_uk/simulation.py +619 -0
  158. policyengine_uk/system.py +3 -257
  159. policyengine_uk/tax_benefit_system.py +141 -0
  160. policyengine_uk/tests/behavioral_responses/test_labor_supply_responses.yaml +183 -0
  161. policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/reforms_config.yaml +8 -8
  162. policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/test_reform_impacts.py +2 -2
  163. policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/test_salary_sacrifice_cap_reform.py +401 -0
  164. policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/test_validity.py +2 -3
  165. policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/update_reform_impacts.py +104 -40
  166. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.yaml +105 -0
  167. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/child_benefit.yaml +2 -0
  168. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/income_support.yaml +0 -23
  169. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dcms/bbc/tv-licence/tv_licence.yaml +3 -0
  170. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dfe/extended_childcare_entitlement/extended_childcare_entitlement.yaml +17 -17
  171. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/basic_state_pension.yaml +44 -0
  172. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/gift_aid.yaml +71 -0
  173. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/personal_allowance.yaml +161 -0
  174. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee.yaml +107 -0
  175. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer.yaml +95 -0
  176. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_interest_rate.yaml +153 -0
  177. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_repayment.yaml +130 -0
  178. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/household/wealth/vehicle.yaml +27 -0
  179. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/reforms/nov_2025_budget/income_source_tax_rates.yaml +235 -0
  180. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/reforms/nov_2025_budget/income_tax_freeze.yaml +83 -0
  181. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/reforms/parametric/basic_income/basic_income.yaml +1 -0
  182. policyengine_uk/tests/test_behavioral_responses.py +215 -0
  183. policyengine_uk/tests/test_fiscal_year_parameters.py +131 -0
  184. policyengine_uk/utils/__init__.py +1 -0
  185. policyengine_uk/utils/compare.py +28 -0
  186. policyengine_uk/utils/create_ahc_deflator.py +169 -0
  187. policyengine_uk/utils/create_triple_lock.py +1 -1
  188. policyengine_uk/utils/dependencies.py +259 -0
  189. policyengine_uk/utils/parameters.py +12 -1
  190. policyengine_uk/utils/scenario.py +225 -0
  191. policyengine_uk/utils/solve_private_school_attendance_factor.py +4 -6
  192. policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/education_budget_change.py +0 -1
  193. policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/baseline_employer_cost.py +5 -1
  194. policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py +23 -23
  195. policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_response_capital_incidence.py +1 -1
  196. policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_response_consumer_incidence.py +1 -1
  197. policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/other_public_spending_budget_change.py +0 -1
  198. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/targeted_childcare_entitlement/targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible.py +0 -1
  199. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dft/rail_subsidy_spending.py +16 -1
  200. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dft/rail_usage.py +16 -0
  201. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/BRMA_LHA_rate.py +7 -2
  202. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/LHA_category.py +4 -2
  203. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/additional_state_pension.py +4 -2
  204. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/basic_state_pension.py +26 -8
  205. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_CTC_eligible.py +1 -1
  206. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt.py +9 -13
  207. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt_earnings.py +66 -0
  208. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt_health_disability.py +75 -0
  209. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt_other.py +66 -0
  210. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_allowance.py +5 -4
  211. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/gov_tax.py +0 -2
  212. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/household_tax.py +0 -1
  213. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/gift_aid.py +23 -0
  214. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/personal_allowance.py +9 -2
  215. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/income_tax_pre_charges.py +1 -0
  216. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/liability/property_income_tax.py +75 -0
  217. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/income_tax/liability/savings_income_tax.py +4 -4
  218. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut.py +43 -0
  219. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee.py +38 -0
  220. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer.py +27 -0
  221. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/pensions/pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice_adjusted.py +31 -0
  222. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/pensions/salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income.py +41 -0
  223. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/student_loans/__init__.py +2 -0
  224. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/student_loans/plan_1_interest_rate.py +23 -0
  225. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/student_loans/plan_2_interest_rate.py +31 -0
  226. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/student_loans/plan_4_interest_rate.py +22 -0
  227. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/student_loans/plan_5_interest_rate.py +18 -0
  228. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/student_loans/postgraduate_interest_rate.py +23 -0
  229. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_plan.py +27 -0
  230. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_repayment.py +91 -0
  231. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/student_loans/student_loan_repayment_rate.py +31 -0
  232. policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/would_claim_child_benefit.py +5 -1
  233. policyengine_uk/variables/household/demographic/benunit/benunit_count_adults.py +11 -0
  234. policyengine_uk/variables/household/demographic/is_disabled_for_benefits.py +13 -1
  235. policyengine_uk/variables/household/income/hbai_household_net_income.py +29 -1
  236. policyengine_uk/variables/household/income/hbai_household_net_income_ahc.py +13 -0
  237. policyengine_uk/variables/household/income/household_net_income.py +5 -1
  238. policyengine_uk/variables/household/income/inflation_adjustment.py +24 -0
  239. policyengine_uk/variables/household/post_tax_income.py +12 -0
  240. policyengine_uk/variables/household/wealth/num_vehicles.py +9 -0
  241. policyengine_uk/variables/household/wealth/owns_vehicle.py +17 -0
  242. policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/council_tax.py +0 -35
  243. policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/employee_pension_contributions.py +8 -1
  244. policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/employee_pension_contributions_reported.py +16 -0
  245. policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice.py +16 -0
  246. policyengine_uk/variables/input/employment_income.py +2 -0
  247. policyengine_uk/variables/input/rent.py +0 -40
  248. policyengine_uk/variables/input/savings_interest_income.py +3 -1
  249. {policyengine_uk-2.40.1.dist-info → policyengine_uk-2.65.6.dist-info}/METADATA +17 -8
  250. {policyengine_uk-2.40.1.dist-info → policyengine_uk-2.65.6.dist-info}/RECORD +252 -173
  251. {policyengine_uk-2.40.1.dist-info → policyengine_uk-2.65.6.dist-info}/WHEEL +1 -1
  252. policyengine_uk/repo.py +0 -3
  253. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/abolitions/abolition_parameters.yaml +0 -250
  254. policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/high_income_incident_tax_change.py +0 -22
  255. policyengine_uk-2.40.1.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/CHANGELOG.md +0 -2285
  256. policyengine_uk-2.40.1.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/README.md +0 -37
  257. policyengine_uk-2.40.1.dist-info/licenses/LICENSE +0 -661
  258. {policyengine_uk-2.40.1.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template → policyengine_uk-2.65.6.dist-info/licenses}/LICENSE +0 -0
policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml CHANGED
@@ -1,7 +1,21 @@
1
+ # OBR Economic Projections
2
+ #
3
+ # Data sources:
4
+ # - 2009-2024: OBR outturn data from detailed forecast tables
5
+ # - 2025-2030: OBR forecast from latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO)
6
+ # - 2031+: OBR long-run equilibrium assumptions:
7
+ # - CPI: 2.0% (Bank of England target)
8
+ # - RPI/CPIH: ~2.4% (CPI + 0.4pp wedge, reflecting housing costs growth)
9
+ # - Average earnings: ~3.8% (productivity growth + inflation)
10
+ # Note: RPI will align with CPIH methodology from February 2030 per ONS plans
11
+ #
12
+ # See: https://obr.uk/box/the-long-run-difference-between-rpi-and-cpi-inflation/
13
+
1
14
  obr:
2
15
  rpi:
3
16
  description: Retail price index year-on-year growth.
4
17
  values:
18
+ # Outturn (2009-2024)
5
19
  2009-01-01: 0.018
6
20
  2010-01-01: 0.008
7
21
  2011-01-01: 0.016
@@ -15,23 +29,72 @@ obr:
15
29
  2019-01-01: 0.022
16
30
  2020-01-01: 0.003
17
31
  2021-01-01: 0.059
18
- 2022-01-01: 0.064
19
- 2023-01-01: 0.069
20
- 2024-01-01: 0.047
21
- 2025-01-01: 0.037
22
- 2026-01-01: 0.022
23
- 2027-01-01: 0.021
24
- 2028-01-01: 0.023
25
- 2029-01-01: 0.025
32
+ 2022-01-01: 0.1158
33
+ 2023-01-01: 0.0969
34
+ 2024-01-01: 0.0359
35
+ # Forecast (2025-2030)
36
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0433
37
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0371
38
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0313
39
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0287
40
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0291
41
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0231
42
+ # Long-run assumptions (2031+)
43
+ 2031-01-01: 0.0230
44
+ 2032-01-01: 0.0237
45
+ 2033-01-01: 0.0238
46
+ 2034-01-01: 0.0238
47
+ 2035-01-01: 0.0239
48
+ 2036-01-01: 0.0239
49
+ 2037-01-01: 0.0239
50
+ 2038-01-01: 0.0239
51
+ 2039-01-01: 0.0239
52
+ 2040-01-01: 0.0239
53
+ 2041-01-01: 0.0239
54
+ 2042-01-01: 0.0239
55
+ 2043-01-01: 0.0239
56
+ 2044-01-01: 0.0239
57
+ 2045-01-01: 0.0239
58
+ 2046-01-01: 0.0239
59
+ 2047-01-01: 0.0239
60
+ 2048-01-01: 0.0239
61
+ 2049-01-01: 0.0239
62
+ 2050-01-01: 0.0239
63
+ 2051-01-01: 0.0239
64
+ 2052-01-01: 0.0239
65
+ 2053-01-01: 0.0239
66
+ 2054-01-01: 0.0239
67
+ 2055-01-01: 0.0239
68
+ 2056-01-01: 0.0239
69
+ 2057-01-01: 0.0239
70
+ 2058-01-01: 0.0239
71
+ 2059-01-01: 0.0239
72
+ 2060-01-01: 0.0239
73
+ 2061-01-01: 0.0239
74
+ 2062-01-01: 0.0239
75
+ 2063-01-01: 0.0239
76
+ 2064-01-01: 0.0239
77
+ 2065-01-01: 0.0239
78
+ 2066-01-01: 0.0239
79
+ 2067-01-01: 0.0239
80
+ 2068-01-01: 0.0239
81
+ 2069-01-01: 0.0239
82
+ 2070-01-01: 0.0239
83
+ 2071-01-01: 0.0239
84
+ 2072-01-01: 0.0239
85
+ 2073-01-01: 0.0239
26
86
  metadata:
27
87
  unit: /1
28
88
  label: retail price index growth
29
89
  reference:
30
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025
31
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
90
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
91
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
92
+ - title: OBR long-run RPI-CPI wedge methodology (2031+ values derived from this)
93
+ href: https://obr.uk/box/the-long-run-difference-between-rpi-and-cpi-inflation/
32
94
  average_earnings:
33
95
  description: Average earnings year-on-year growth.
34
96
  values:
97
+ # Outturn (2009-2024)
35
98
  2009-01-01: 0.018
36
99
  2010-01-01: 0.008
37
100
  2011-01-01: 0.016
@@ -45,24 +108,73 @@ obr:
45
108
  2019-01-01: 0.022
46
109
  2020-01-01: 0.003
47
110
  2021-01-01: 0.059
48
- 2022-01-01: 0.064
49
- 2023-01-01: 0.069
50
- 2024-01-01: 0.047
51
- 2025-01-01: 0.037
52
- 2026-01-01: 0.022
53
- 2027-01-01: 0.021
54
- 2028-01-01: 0.023
55
- 2029-01-01: 0.025
111
+ 2022-01-01: 0.0614
112
+ 2023-01-01: 0.0622
113
+ 2024-01-01: 0.0493
114
+ # Forecast (2025-2030)
115
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0517
116
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0333
117
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0225
118
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0210
119
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0221
120
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0232
121
+ # Long-run assumptions (2031+)
122
+ 2031-01-01: 0.0332
123
+ 2032-01-01: 0.0371
124
+ 2033-01-01: 0.0374
125
+ 2034-01-01: 0.0377
126
+ 2035-01-01: 0.0380
127
+ 2036-01-01: 0.0383
128
+ 2037-01-01: 0.0383
129
+ 2038-01-01: 0.0383
130
+ 2039-01-01: 0.0383
131
+ 2040-01-01: 0.0383
132
+ 2041-01-01: 0.0383
133
+ 2042-01-01: 0.0383
134
+ 2043-01-01: 0.0383
135
+ 2044-01-01: 0.0383
136
+ 2045-01-01: 0.0383
137
+ 2046-01-01: 0.0383
138
+ 2047-01-01: 0.0383
139
+ 2048-01-01: 0.0383
140
+ 2049-01-01: 0.0383
141
+ 2050-01-01: 0.0383
142
+ 2051-01-01: 0.0383
143
+ 2052-01-01: 0.0383
144
+ 2053-01-01: 0.0383
145
+ 2054-01-01: 0.0383
146
+ 2055-01-01: 0.0383
147
+ 2056-01-01: 0.0383
148
+ 2057-01-01: 0.0383
149
+ 2058-01-01: 0.0383
150
+ 2059-01-01: 0.0383
151
+ 2060-01-01: 0.0383
152
+ 2061-01-01: 0.0383
153
+ 2062-01-01: 0.0383
154
+ 2063-01-01: 0.0383
155
+ 2064-01-01: 0.0383
156
+ 2065-01-01: 0.0383
157
+ 2066-01-01: 0.0383
158
+ 2067-01-01: 0.0383
159
+ 2068-01-01: 0.0383
160
+ 2069-01-01: 0.0383
161
+ 2070-01-01: 0.0383
162
+ 2071-01-01: 0.0383
163
+ 2072-01-01: 0.0383
164
+ 2073-01-01: 0.0383
56
165
  metadata:
57
166
  unit: /1
58
167
  label: average earnings growth
59
168
  reference:
60
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.6, Row Q)
61
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
169
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.6)
170
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
171
+ - title: OBR long-run economic methodology (2031+ values derived from this)
172
+ href: https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/potential-output-and-the-output-gap/
62
173
 
63
174
  consumer_price_index:
64
175
  description: Consumer price index year-on-year growth.
65
176
  values:
177
+ # Outturn (2009-2024)
66
178
  2009-01-01: 0.022
67
179
  2010-01-01: 0.035
68
180
  2011-01-01: 0.043
@@ -75,240 +187,478 @@ obr:
75
187
  2018-01-01: 0.023
76
188
  2019-01-01: 0.017
77
189
  2020-01-01: 0.006
78
- 2021-01-01: 0.040
79
- 2022-01-01: 0.100
80
- 2023-01-01: 0.057
81
- 2024-01-01: 0.023
82
- 2025-01-01: 0.032
83
- 2026-01-01: 0.019
84
- 2027-01-01: 0.020
85
- 2028-01-01: 0.020
86
- 2029-01-01: 0.020
190
+ 2021-01-01: 0.04
191
+ 2022-01-01: 0.0907
192
+ 2023-01-01: 0.0730
193
+ 2024-01-01: 0.0253
194
+ # Forecast (2025-2030)
195
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0345
196
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0248
197
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0202
198
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0204
199
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0204
200
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0200
201
+ # Long-run assumptions (2031+): Bank of England 2% target
202
+ 2031-01-01: 0.0200
203
+ 2032-01-01: 0.0200
204
+ 2033-01-01: 0.0200
205
+ 2034-01-01: 0.0200
206
+ 2035-01-01: 0.0200
207
+ 2036-01-01: 0.0200
208
+ 2037-01-01: 0.0200
209
+ 2038-01-01: 0.0200
210
+ 2039-01-01: 0.0200
211
+ 2040-01-01: 0.0200
212
+ 2041-01-01: 0.0200
213
+ 2042-01-01: 0.0200
214
+ 2043-01-01: 0.0200
215
+ 2044-01-01: 0.0200
216
+ 2045-01-01: 0.0200
217
+ 2046-01-01: 0.0200
218
+ 2047-01-01: 0.0200
219
+ 2048-01-01: 0.0200
220
+ 2049-01-01: 0.0200
221
+ 2050-01-01: 0.0200
222
+ 2051-01-01: 0.0200
223
+ 2052-01-01: 0.0200
224
+ 2053-01-01: 0.0200
225
+ 2054-01-01: 0.0200
226
+ 2055-01-01: 0.0200
227
+ 2056-01-01: 0.0200
228
+ 2057-01-01: 0.0200
229
+ 2058-01-01: 0.0200
230
+ 2059-01-01: 0.0200
231
+ 2060-01-01: 0.0200
232
+ 2061-01-01: 0.0200
233
+ 2062-01-01: 0.0200
234
+ 2063-01-01: 0.0200
235
+ 2064-01-01: 0.0200
236
+ 2065-01-01: 0.0200
237
+ 2066-01-01: 0.0200
238
+ 2067-01-01: 0.0200
239
+ 2068-01-01: 0.0200
240
+ 2069-01-01: 0.0200
241
+ 2070-01-01: 0.0200
242
+ 2071-01-01: 0.0200
243
+ 2072-01-01: 0.0200
244
+ 2073-01-01: 0.0200
87
245
  metadata:
88
246
  unit: /1
89
247
  label: consumer price index growth
90
248
  reference:
91
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025
92
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
249
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
250
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
251
+ - title: Bank of England inflation target (2031+ assumes 2% target)
252
+ href: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation
253
+
254
+ consumer_price_index_ahc:
255
+ description: Consumer price index year-on-year growth, modified to remove housing costs.
256
+ values:
257
+ 2022-01-01: 0.107
258
+ 2023-01-01: 0.057
259
+ 2024-01-01: 0.018
260
+ 2025-01-01: 0.027
261
+ 2026-01-01: 0.017
262
+ 2027-01-01: 0.019
263
+ 2028-01-01: 0.019
264
+ 2029-01-01: 0.019
265
+ metadata:
266
+ unit: /1
267
+ label: after housing costs consumer price index growth
268
+ reference:
269
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025
270
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
271
+ - title: ONS CPI weights
272
+ href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/consumerpriceinflationupdatingweightsannexatablesw1tow3
273
+ - title: ONS CPI series excluding housing costs
274
+ href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/adhocs/2863consumerpriceindicesseriesexcludingrentsmaintenancerepairsandwaterchargesfortheperiodjanuary1996toapril2025
275
+
276
+ cpih:
277
+ description: Consumer price index including owner occupiers' housing costs year-on-year growth.
278
+ values:
279
+ # Outturn (2022-2024)
280
+ 2022-01-01: 0.0792
281
+ 2023-01-01: 0.0679
282
+ 2024-01-01: 0.0327
283
+ # Forecast (2025-2030)
284
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0393
285
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0267
286
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0215
287
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0208
288
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0211
289
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0213
290
+ # Long-run assumptions (2031+): CPI + 0.4pp wedge for housing costs
291
+ 2031-01-01: 0.0230
292
+ 2032-01-01: 0.0237
293
+ 2033-01-01: 0.0238
294
+ 2034-01-01: 0.0238
295
+ 2035-01-01: 0.0239
296
+ 2036-01-01: 0.0239
297
+ 2037-01-01: 0.0239
298
+ 2038-01-01: 0.0239
299
+ 2039-01-01: 0.0239
300
+ 2040-01-01: 0.0239
301
+ 2041-01-01: 0.0239
302
+ 2042-01-01: 0.0239
303
+ 2043-01-01: 0.0239
304
+ 2044-01-01: 0.0239
305
+ 2045-01-01: 0.0239
306
+ 2046-01-01: 0.0239
307
+ 2047-01-01: 0.0239
308
+ 2048-01-01: 0.0239
309
+ 2049-01-01: 0.0239
310
+ 2050-01-01: 0.0239
311
+ 2051-01-01: 0.0239
312
+ 2052-01-01: 0.0239
313
+ 2053-01-01: 0.0239
314
+ 2054-01-01: 0.0239
315
+ 2055-01-01: 0.0239
316
+ 2056-01-01: 0.0239
317
+ 2057-01-01: 0.0239
318
+ 2058-01-01: 0.0239
319
+ 2059-01-01: 0.0239
320
+ 2060-01-01: 0.0239
321
+ 2061-01-01: 0.0239
322
+ 2062-01-01: 0.0239
323
+ 2063-01-01: 0.0239
324
+ 2064-01-01: 0.0239
325
+ 2065-01-01: 0.0239
326
+ 2066-01-01: 0.0239
327
+ 2067-01-01: 0.0239
328
+ 2068-01-01: 0.0239
329
+ 2069-01-01: 0.0239
330
+ 2070-01-01: 0.0239
331
+ 2071-01-01: 0.0239
332
+ 2072-01-01: 0.0239
333
+ 2073-01-01: 0.0239
334
+ metadata:
335
+ unit: /1
336
+ label: CPIH growth
337
+ reference:
338
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
339
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
340
+ - title: OBR long-run RPI-CPI wedge methodology (2031+ values derived from this)
341
+ href: https://obr.uk/box/the-long-run-difference-between-rpi-and-cpi-inflation/
93
342
 
94
343
  non_labour_income:
95
344
  description: Non-labour income year-on-year growth.
96
345
  values:
97
- 2021-01-01: 0.072
98
- 2022-01-01: 0.138
99
- 2023-01-01: 0.066
100
- 2024-01-01: 0.08
101
- 2025-01-01: 0.068
102
- 2026-01-01: 0.056
103
- 2027-01-01: 0.045
104
- 2028-01-01: 0.034
105
- 2029-01-01: 0.035
346
+ # Outturn (2021-2024)
347
+ 2021-01-01: 0.0870
348
+ 2022-01-01: 0.0987
349
+ 2023-01-01: 0.1215
350
+ 2024-01-01: 0.0492
351
+ # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12
352
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0519
353
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0565
354
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0474
355
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0364
356
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0302
357
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0292
106
358
  metadata:
107
359
  unit: /1
108
360
  label: non-labour income growth
109
361
  reference:
110
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025
111
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
362
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12)
363
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
112
364
 
113
365
  council_tax:
114
366
  england:
115
367
  description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in England.
116
368
  values:
369
+ # Outturn (2023-2024)
117
370
  2023-01-01: 0.051
118
371
  2024-01-01: 0.051
119
- 2025-01-01: 0.050
120
- 2026-01-01: 0.043
121
- 2027-01-01: 0.043
122
- 2028-01-01: 0.043
123
- 2029-01-01: 0.043
372
+ # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1
373
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0781
374
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0530
375
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0579
376
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0565
377
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0547
378
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0542
124
379
  metadata:
125
380
  unit: /1
126
381
  reference:
127
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (2023-2025 based on outturn)
128
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
382
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1)
383
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
129
384
  scotland:
130
385
  description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Scotland.
131
386
  values:
387
+ # Outturn (2023-2024)
132
388
  2023-01-01: 0.052
133
389
  2024-01-01: 0.001
134
- 2025-01-01: 0.088
135
- 2026-01-01: 0.027
136
- 2027-01-01: 0.027
137
- 2028-01-01: 0.027
138
- 2029-01-01: 0.027
390
+ # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1
391
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0384
392
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0384
393
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0384
394
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0384
395
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0384
396
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0384
139
397
  metadata:
140
398
  unit: /1
141
399
  reference:
142
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (2023-2025 based on outturn)
143
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
400
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1)
401
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
144
402
  wales:
145
403
  description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Wales.
146
404
  values:
405
+ # Outturn (2023-2024)
147
406
  2023-01-01: 0.058
148
407
  2024-01-01: 0.077
149
- 2025-01-01: 0.072
150
- 2026-01-01: 0.041
151
- 2027-01-01: 0.041
152
- 2028-01-01: 0.041
153
- 2029-01-01: 0.041
408
+ # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1
409
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0581
410
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0581
411
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0581
412
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0581
413
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0581
414
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0581
154
415
  metadata:
155
416
  unit: /1
156
417
  reference:
157
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (2023-2025 based on outturn)
158
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
418
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1)
419
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
159
420
 
160
421
  per_capita:
161
422
  gdp:
162
- description: Per capita GDP year-on-year growth.
423
+ description: Per capita nominal GDP year-on-year growth.
163
424
  values:
164
- 2021-01-01: 0.125
165
- 2022-01-01: 0.092
166
- 2023-01-01: 0.05
167
- 2024-01-01: 0.038
168
- 2025-01-01: 0.028
169
- 2026-01-01: 0.028
170
- 2027-01-01: 0.031
171
- 2028-01-01: 0.033
172
- 2029-01-01: 0.033
425
+ # Outturn (2021-2024) - derived from nominal GDP growth minus population growth
426
+ 2021-01-01: 0.0892
427
+ 2022-01-01: 0.1019
428
+ 2023-01-01: 0.0532
429
+ 2024-01-01: 0.0372
430
+ # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.4 minus population growth
431
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0418
432
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0327
433
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0326
434
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0302
435
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0294
436
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0306
173
437
  metadata:
174
438
  unit: /1
175
439
  label: per capita GDP growth
176
440
  reference:
177
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025
178
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
441
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.4)
442
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
179
443
 
180
444
  mixed_income:
181
445
  description: Per capita mixed income year-on-year growth.
182
446
  values:
183
- 2021-01-01: 0.06
184
- 2022-01-01: 0.063
185
- 2023-01-01: 0.024
186
- 2024-01-01: 0.048
187
- 2025-01-01: 0.047
188
- 2026-01-01: 0.031
189
- 2027-01-01: 0.031
190
- 2028-01-01: 0.036
191
- 2029-01-01: 0.038
447
+ # Outturn (2021-2024) - derived from mixed income growth minus population growth
448
+ 2021-01-01: 0.0635
449
+ 2022-01-01: 0.0296
450
+ 2023-01-01: -0.0060
451
+ 2024-01-01: 0.0273
452
+ # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 minus population growth
453
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0024
454
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0362
455
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0374
456
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0351
457
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0358
458
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0364
192
459
  metadata:
193
460
  unit: /1
194
461
  label: per capita mixed income growth
195
462
  reference:
196
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025
197
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
463
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12)
464
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
198
465
 
199
466
  non_labour_income:
200
467
  description: Per capita non-labour income year-on-year growth.
201
468
  values:
202
- 2021-01-01: 0.068
203
- 2022-01-01: 0.134
204
- 2023-01-01: 0.052
205
- 2024-01-01: 0.069
206
- 2025-01-01: 0.057
207
- 2026-01-01: 0.049
208
- 2027-01-01: 0.038
209
- 2028-01-01: 0.029
210
- 2029-01-01: 0.03
469
+ # Outturn (2021-2024) - derived from non-labour income growth minus population growth
470
+ 2021-01-01: 0.0830
471
+ 2022-01-01: 0.0894
472
+ 2023-01-01: 0.1084
473
+ 2024-01-01: 0.0385
474
+ # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 minus population growth
475
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0447
476
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0527
477
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0437
478
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0324
479
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0258
480
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0247
211
481
  metadata:
212
482
  unit: /1
213
483
  label: per capita non-labour income growth
214
484
  reference:
215
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025
216
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
485
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12)
486
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
217
487
 
218
488
  house_prices:
219
489
  description: House prices year-on-year growth.
220
490
  values:
491
+ # Outturn (2021-2024)
221
492
  2021-01-01: 0.082
222
- 2022-01-01: 0.083
223
- 2023-01-01: -0.01
224
- 2024-01-01: 0.027
225
- 2025-01-01: 0.024
226
- 2026-01-01: 0.025
227
- 2027-01-01: 0.026
228
- 2028-01-01: 0.023
229
- 2029-01-01: 0.024
493
+ 2022-01-01: 0.0926
494
+ 2023-01-01: 0.0036
495
+ 2024-01-01: 0.0083
496
+ # Forecast (2025-2030)
497
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0294
498
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0222
499
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0279
500
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0272
501
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0257
502
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0242
230
503
  metadata:
231
504
  unit: /1
232
505
  label: house prices growth
233
506
  reference:
234
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025
235
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
507
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.16)
508
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
236
509
 
237
510
  mortgage_interest:
238
511
  description: Mortgage interest year-on-year growth.
239
512
  values:
240
- 2021-01-01: 0.003
241
- 2022-01-01: 0.262
242
- 2023-01-01: 0.485
243
- 2024-01-01: 0.221
244
- 2025-01-01: 0.136
245
- 2026-01-01: 0.126
246
- 2027-01-01: 0.082
247
- 2028-01-01: 0.042
248
- 2029-01-01: 0.047
513
+ # Outturn (2021-2024)
514
+ 2021-01-01: -0.0226
515
+ 2022-01-01: 0.1462
516
+ 2023-01-01: 0.5224
517
+ 2024-01-01: 0.2730
518
+ # Forecast (2025-2030)
519
+ 2025-01-01: 0.1098
520
+ 2026-01-01: 0.1435
521
+ 2027-01-01: 0.1032
522
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0470
523
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0466
524
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0553
249
525
  metadata:
250
526
  unit: /1
251
527
  label: mortgage interest growth
252
528
  reference:
253
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025
254
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
529
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
530
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
255
531
 
256
532
  social_rent:
257
533
  description: Rent year-on-year growth (CPI+1%, one year lagged).
258
534
  values:
259
- 2022-01-01: 0.050
260
- 2023-01-01: 0.070
261
- 2024-01-01: 0.067
262
- 2025-01-01: 0.033
263
- 2026-01-01: 0.042
264
- 2027-01-01: 0.029
535
+ # Outturn (2022-2024)
536
+ 2022-01-01: 0.05
537
+ 2023-01-01: 0.07
538
+ 2024-01-01: 0.083
539
+ # Forecast (2025-2030): Derived from CPI+1%, one year lagged
540
+ 2025-01-01: 0.035
541
+ 2026-01-01: 0.045
542
+ 2027-01-01: 0.035
265
543
  2028-01-01: 0.030
266
544
  2029-01-01: 0.030
545
+ 2030-01-01: 0.030
267
546
  metadata:
268
547
  unit: /1
269
548
  label: social rent growth
270
549
  reference:
271
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025
272
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
550
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (derived from CPI+1%, one year lagged)
551
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
273
552
  rent:
274
553
  description: Rent year-on-year growth, private and social (ONS series D7GQ).
275
-
276
554
  values:
277
- 2022-01-01: 0.041
278
- 2023-01-01: 0.063
279
- 2024-01-01: 0.074
280
- 2025-01-01: 0.057
281
- 2026-01-01: 0.036
282
- 2027-01-01: 0.027
283
- 2028-01-01: 0.023
284
- 2029-01-01: 0.024
555
+ # Outturn (2022-2024)
556
+ 2022-01-01: 0.0347
557
+ 2023-01-01: 0.0575
558
+ 2024-01-01: 0.0716
559
+ # Forecast (2025-2030)
560
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0546
561
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0334
562
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0311
563
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0243
564
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0234
565
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0254
285
566
 
286
567
  metadata:
287
568
  unit: /1
288
569
  label: rent growth
289
570
  reference:
290
- - title: OBR EFO March 2025
291
- href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
571
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
572
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
292
573
 
293
574
  ons:
294
575
  population:
295
576
  description: Population year-on-year growth.
296
577
  values:
297
578
  2021-01-01: 0.004
298
- 2022-01-01: 0.003
299
- 2023-01-01: 0.014
300
- 2024-01-01: 0.01
301
- 2025-01-01: 0.011
302
- 2026-01-01: 0.007
303
- 2027-01-01: 0.008
304
- 2028-01-01: 0.004
305
- 2029-01-01: 0.005
579
+ 2022-01-01: 0.0093
580
+ 2023-01-01: 0.0131
581
+ 2024-01-01: 0.0107
582
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0072
583
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0038
584
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0037
585
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0040
586
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0044
587
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0045
588
+ 2031-01-01: 0.0043
589
+ 2032-01-01: 0.0042
590
+ 2033-01-01: 0.0041
591
+ 2034-01-01: 0.0040
592
+ 2035-01-01: 0.0039
593
+ 2036-01-01: 0.0038
594
+ 2037-01-01: 0.0037
595
+ 2038-01-01: 0.0036
596
+ 2039-01-01: 0.0035
597
+ 2040-01-01: 0.0035
598
+ 2041-01-01: 0.0034
599
+ 2042-01-01: 0.0034
600
+ 2043-01-01: 0.0033
601
+ 2044-01-01: 0.0032
602
+ 2045-01-01: 0.0032
603
+ 2046-01-01: 0.0031
604
+ 2047-01-01: 0.0030
605
+ 2048-01-01: 0.0029
606
+ 2049-01-01: 0.0028
607
+ 2050-01-01: 0.0027
608
+ 2051-01-01: 0.0025
609
+ 2052-01-01: 0.0024
610
+ 2053-01-01: 0.0022
611
+ 2054-01-01: 0.0021
612
+ 2055-01-01: 0.0020
613
+ 2056-01-01: 0.0019
614
+ 2057-01-01: 0.0018
615
+ 2058-01-01: 0.0017
616
+ 2059-01-01: 0.0016
617
+ 2060-01-01: 0.0016
618
+ 2061-01-01: 0.0016
619
+ 2062-01-01: 0.0015
620
+ 2063-01-01: 0.0015
621
+ 2064-01-01: 0.0015
622
+ 2065-01-01: 0.0015
623
+ 2066-01-01: 0.0015
624
+ 2067-01-01: 0.0015
625
+ 2068-01-01: 0.0015
626
+ 2069-01-01: 0.0015
627
+ 2070-01-01: 0.0015
628
+ 2071-01-01: 0.0015
629
+ 2072-01-01: 0.0015
630
+ 2073-01-01: 0.0014
306
631
  metadata:
307
632
  unit: /1
308
633
  label: population growth
309
634
  reference:
310
635
  - title: ONS Population Projections
311
636
  href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/
637
+ household_interest_income:
638
+ description: Household interest income year-on-year growth from ONS National Accounts D.41g.
639
+ values:
640
+ # Outturn from ONS HAXV - Total household interest received (D.41)
641
+ # https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/haxv/ukea
642
+ 2020-01-01: 0.000
643
+ 2021-01-01: 0.225 # 19.6/16.0 - 1
644
+ 2022-01-01: 1.210 # 43.3/19.6 - 1
645
+ 2023-01-01: 0.987 # 86.0/43.3 - 1
646
+ 2024-01-01: 0.142 # 98.2/86.0 - 1
647
+ # Forecast: use OBR non-labour income growth as proxy (Table 1.12)
648
+ 2025-01-01: 0.0519
649
+ 2026-01-01: 0.0565
650
+ 2027-01-01: 0.0474
651
+ 2028-01-01: 0.0364
652
+ 2029-01-01: 0.0302
653
+ 2030-01-01: 0.0292
654
+ metadata:
655
+ unit: /1
656
+ label: household interest income growth
657
+ reference:
658
+ - title: ONS National Accounts D.41g - Households interest received (HAXV series)
659
+ href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/haxv/ukea
660
+ - title: OBR EFO November 2025 - Non-labour income growth used as proxy for 2025+ (Table 1.12)
661
+ href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
312
662
  private_rental_prices:
313
663
  UNITED_KINGDOM:
314
664
  description: Private rental prices year-on-year growth in United Kingdom.
@@ -487,7 +837,7 @@ ofwat:
487
837
  2022-01-01: 0.052
488
838
  2023-01-01: 0.092
489
839
  2024-01-01: 0.044
490
- 2025-01-01: 0.260
840
+ 2025-01-01: 0.26
491
841
  2026-01-01: 0.055
492
842
  2027-01-01: 0.046
493
843
  2028-01-01: 0.045
@@ -504,16 +854,35 @@ finance_ni:
504
854
  domestic_rates:
505
855
  description: Domestic rates year-on-year growth.
506
856
  values:
507
- 2024-01-01: 0.050
857
+ 2024-01-01: 0.05
508
858
  2025-01-01: 0.047
509
- 2026-01-01: 0.0
510
- 2027-01-01: 0.0
511
- 2028-01-01: 0.0
512
- 2029-01-01: 0.0
513
- 2020-01-01: 0.0
859
+ 2026-01-01: 0
860
+ 2027-01-01: 0
861
+ 2028-01-01: 0
862
+ 2029-01-01: 0
863
+ 2020-01-01: 0
514
864
  metadata:
515
865
  unit: /1
516
866
  label: domestic rates growth
517
867
  reference:
518
868
  - title: Finance NI (based on outturn)
519
- href: https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/
869
+ href: https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/
870
+
871
+ carbon_intensity:
872
+ description: Carbon intensity year-over-year growth (decline).
873
+ values:
874
+ 2022-01-01: -0.049
875
+ 2023-01-01: -0.049
876
+ 2024-01-01: -0.049
877
+ 2025-01-01: -0.049
878
+ 2026-01-01: -0.049
879
+ 2027-01-01: -0.049
880
+ 2028-01-01: -0.049
881
+ 2029-01-01: -0.049
882
+ 2030-01-01: -0.049
883
+ metadata:
884
+ unit: /1
885
+ label: carbon intensity growth
886
+ reference:
887
+ - title: "Energy and emissions projections: 2023 to 2050"
888
+ href: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-and-emissions-projections-2023-to-2050