policyengine-uk 2.39.0__py3-none-any.whl → 2.39.1__py3-none-any.whl

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/LHA/freeze.yaml

@@ -2,7 +2,8 @@ description: While this parameter is true, LHA rates are frozen in cash terms.
 values:
   2015-01-01: false
   2020-01-01: true
-  2024-01-01: false
+  2023-12-31: false
+  2024-01-01: true
 metadata:
   unit: bool
   label: LHA freeze

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/minimum_guarantee.yaml

@@ -1,33 +1,37 @@
 description: Minimum income guarantee (basic amount) for Pension Credit
 SINGLE:
-  2015-04-06: 151.20
-  2016-04-06: 155.60
-  2017-04-06: 159.35
-  2018-04-06: 163.00
-  2019-04-06: 167.25
-  2020-04-06: 173.75
-  2021-04-06: 177.10
-  2022-04-01: 182.60
-  2023-04-01: 201.05
-  2024-04-01: 218.15
-  2025-04-01: 221.85
+  values:
+    2015-04-06: 151.20
+    2016-04-06: 155.60
+    2017-04-06: 159.35
+    2018-04-06: 163.00
+    2019-04-06: 167.25
+    2020-04-06: 173.75
+    2021-04-06: 177.10
+    2022-04-01: 182.60
+    2023-04-01: 201.05
+    2024-04-01: 218.15
+    2025-04-01: 221.85
+  metadata:
+    uprating: gov.benefit_uprating_cpi
 COUPLE:
-  2015-04-06: 230.85
-  2016-04-06: 237.55
-  2017-04-06: 243.25
-  2018-04-06: 248.80
-  2019-04-06: 255.25
-  2020-04-06: 265.20
-  2021-04-06: 270.30
-  2022-04-01: 278.70
-  2023-04-01: 306.85
-  2024-04-01: 332.95
-  2025-04-01: 338.61
+  values:
+    2015-04-06: 230.85
+    2016-04-06: 237.55
+    2017-04-06: 243.25
+    2018-04-06: 248.80
+    2019-04-06: 255.25
+    2020-04-06: 265.20
+    2021-04-06: 270.30
+    2022-04-01: 278.70
+    2023-04-01: 306.85
+    2024-04-01: 332.95
+    2025-04-01: 338.61
+  metadata:
+    uprating: gov.benefit_uprating_cpi
 metadata:
   period: week
-  name: pc_min_guarantee
   label: Pension Credit minimum guarantee
-  uprating: gov.benefit_uprating_cpi
   unit: currency-GBP
   reference:
     - title: The State Pension Credit Regulations 2002 reg. 6

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml

@@ -298,14 +298,16 @@ ofwat:
       2022-01-01: 0.052
       2023-01-01: 0.092
       2024-01-01: 0.044
-      2025-01-01: 0.061
-      2026-01-01: 0.061
-      2027-01-01: 0.051
-      2028-01-01: 0.038
-      2029-01-01: 0.043
+      2025-01-01: 0.260
+      2026-01-01: 0.055
+      2027-01-01: 0.046
+      2028-01-01: 0.045
+      2029-01-01: 0.045
     metadata:
       unit: /1
       label: water bills growth
       reference:
         - title: Ofwat (and custom projections)
-          href: https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/price-review/
+          href: https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/price-review/
+        - title: Ofwat 2025-26 media statement
+          href: https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/average-bills-2025-26-press-statement/

policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/reforms_config.yaml

@@ -16,11 +16,11 @@ reforms:
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.child_benefit.amount.additional: 25
 - name: Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%
-  expected_impact: -41.2
+  expected_impact: -37.7
   parameters:
     gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.reduction_rate: 0.2
 - name: Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%
-  expected_impact: 12.2
+  expected_impact: 12.3
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.1
 - name: Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp

policyengine_uk/utils/water/forecast_water_bills.py

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import pandas as pd
 from pathlib import Path
+from microdf import MicroDataFrame
 
 
 def project_water_bills():
@@ -26,14 +27,17 @@ def project_water_bills():
     proposed_increases = pd.read_csv(
         Path(__file__).parent / "ofwat_increases.csv"
     )
+    proposed_increases = MicroDataFrame(
+        proposed_increases, weights="Customers"
+    )
     avg_bills_2025_onwards = (
-        proposed_increases[proposed_increases.columns[1:]].mean()[1:].values
+        proposed_increases[proposed_increases.columns[2:]].mean().values
     )
 
     df_post_2025 = pd.DataFrame(
         {
-            "Year": [2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029],
-            "CPIH": [139.0, 142.2, 145.2, 148.2, 151.3],
+            "Year": [2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029],
+            "CPIH": [134.0, 139.0, 142.2, 145.2, 148.2, 151.3],
             "Pre-inflation avg bills (nominal)": avg_bills_2025_onwards,
         }
     )
@@ -45,7 +49,7 @@ def project_water_bills():
     ].values
     df_post_2025["CPIH change"] = df_post_2025["CPIH"].pct_change() * 100
 
-    for year in range(2026, 2030):
+    for year in range(2025, 2030):
         row = df_post_2025[df_post_2025["Year"] == year].iloc[0]
         cpi_change = (
             row["CPIH"]
@@ -65,6 +69,8 @@ def project_water_bills():
         df_post_2025["Avg bills (nominal)"].pct_change() * 100
     ).round(1)
 
+    df_post_2025.to_csv("test.csv")
+
     df_post_2025
 
     combined_water_forecast = pd.DataFrame(
@@ -72,9 +78,13 @@ def project_water_bills():
             "Year": list(range(2022, 2030)),
             "Average nominal bills YoY change": df_pre_2025[
                 "Nominal YoY change"
-            ].tolist()[1:]
+            ].tolist()[1:-1]
             + df_post_2025["Relative change"].tolist()[1:],
         }
     )
 
     print(combined_water_forecast.to_markdown(index=False))
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    project_water_bills()

{policyengine_uk-2.39.0.data → policyengine_uk-2.39.1.data}/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -5,6 +5,12 @@ All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
 The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/), 
 and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0.html).
 
+## [2.39.1] - 2025-07-16 11:08:29
+
+### Fixed
+
+- Improved water bills projections.
+
 ## [2.39.0] - 2025-07-15 11:58:59
 
 ### Added
@@ -1949,6 +1955,7 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 
 
 
+[2.39.1]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.39.0...2.39.1
 [2.39.0]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.38.2...2.39.0
 [2.38.2]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.38.1...2.38.2
 [2.38.1]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.38.0...2.38.1

{policyengine_uk-2.39.0.dist-info → policyengine_uk-2.39.1.dist-info}/METADATA

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.4
 Name: policyengine-uk
-Version: 2.39.0
+Version: 2.39.1
 Summary: PolicyEngine tax and benefit system for the UK
 Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
 Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

{policyengine_uk-2.39.0.dist-info → policyengine_uk-2.39.1.dist-info}/RECORD

@@ -134,7 +134,7 @@ policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/JSA/income/income_disregard_single.yaml,sha25
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/JSA/income/takeup.yaml,sha256=YAkrZhjU_SXOQgPktzV6QFlXKVSyhJv26ENNOL67qj8,631
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/LHA/README.md,sha256=5tGqv1Y9604EHSpFrveWSSku3Fz1OXayWJ1SkLaPvSw,26
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/LHA/__init__.py,sha256=YMNgG4e3yHHtoJ6hpx5Zuz3MT-IODSC1Q1yNNANqNtk,136
-policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/LHA/freeze.yaml,sha256=mUZ8UeQw3E0vyRzPEeJNx_WziqE5WM_CQlUEzvZoBJ4,188
+policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/LHA/freeze.yaml,sha256=WtWomrgei1cmzRMX6PS71L_8GpXAF4wG5VNUmXV1agY,207
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/LHA/lha_list_of_rents.csv.gz,sha256=SVaiCl5aBL5aAKvWuEHSm5baJ8pTnlIt1XBTcDESCgI,853159
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/LHA/percentile.yaml,sha256=TtPLtgck3uJxlrk9PX2R9Ytk9lVkSU4GkCYEKCPE7Ds,247
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/LHA/means_test/earn_disregard.yaml,sha256=qOLXvpxZT0fvI1WV_NKinNJHqeGQ5tQ_Fa07v_ly-kA,319
@@ -215,7 +215,7 @@ policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/takeup.yaml,sha256=6uqvO5g7v73
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/additions.yaml,sha256=ENATVc8mGRdlaxd44Dzt32cPRI62FmDIMNqWMfWlFXY,312
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/earnings_sources.yaml,sha256=grWpDff51dcA450BMOdrYkeIaAsTHa0fKw1eVifa9wQ,456
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/income.yaml,sha256=k2U8I3RqBELV4_QBrOgFumUBgzMneVFWeHUmeOjWiA0,518
-policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/minimum_guarantee.yaml,sha256=c4l4rZxJiWYHYxEWJ16ikA12mw09zkErWq_NrHnXl1g,857
+policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/minimum_guarantee.yaml,sha256=Rvgt6yoR9hTwrgrN2IUsw_F24fXnTlbdjUTXb5iZjJI,961
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/carer/addition.yaml,sha256=WYo1LA8YobxJQRgdSXr8JD_RET4eJWhhvR9g60C_HG0,540
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/child/addition.yaml,sha256=OVKTox12TFpCB6_ovOaO5YqVt140P3autTP9iNdP_as,512
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/child/disability/addition.yaml,sha256=oGBPstiGFPuD5g1ovEIkpOkzzqaF8GX4cosJKMTCG3M,564
@@ -313,7 +313,7 @@ policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/taxable_incom
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/create_economic_assumption_indices.py,sha256=Z4dYghSit5gXo4V3wBpnLIc9zgTX4cfEyb_TUlJkTGY,1937
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/lag_average_earnings.py,sha256=ksHcyUQkLAJmKizCeSg8j0hzPc7ajgIvbExWLgCra4U,701
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/lag_cpi.py,sha256=IdtaMLN1_OSu-RFZsQV8vBlbOvXsPlnNlsOuinRHrxg,642
-policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml,sha256=Vdd8sJJ29wjq0kin1cdy6fglwDTJ1bBXusVIuH0tpC0,8414
+policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml,sha256=Ofy--y8LdS-aSaKCDKCbNQaEkUDSRGTWPG2t7xhh5lU,8542
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/README.md,sha256=nkHVZl6lsjI93sR8uC7wAbul3_61wJrsP08iaW8f5lk,7
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/minimum_wage.yaml,sha256=1oMbevU0ESHR51mcAG39POd1DA1FgPUep4hL6ojj-P4,2049
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/README.md,sha256=9ud50i_gMjGj6VymF-nzFDTzkFRMMJx6ybpLwbWzvpI,17
@@ -528,7 +528,7 @@ policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/disable_simulated_benefits.py,sha256=siEs1E
 policyengine_uk/tests/test_parameter_metadata.py,sha256=_2w2dSokAf5Jskye_KIL8eh80N7yIrUszlmqnZtwQws,450
 policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_variables.py,sha256=9Y-KpmzhyRGy9eEqocK9z91NXHX5QIF3mDMNGvegb7Q,1398
 policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/README.md,sha256=1toB1Z06ynlUielTrsAaeo9Vb-c3ZrB3tbbR4E1xUGk,3924
-policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/reforms_config.yaml,sha256=_MXQn3I0fJmJ7M4xgbDAhSlGrIThBxXXY4i6E-JWTaQ,1086
+policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/reforms_config.yaml,sha256=KFVhg0L3uN4DMRdFOUzGhfb5CkGNiY1HkiOhhLuwI3A,1086
 policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/test_reform_impacts.py,sha256=xM3M2pclEhA9JIFpnuiPMy1fEBFOKcSzroRPk73FPls,2635
 policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/test_validity.py,sha256=RWhbSKrnrZCNQRVmGYlM8hnpe1_Blo5_xP8vr8u3kV0,694
 policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/update_reform_impacts.py,sha256=2pxp2RNLWxV4CesGKKHmg3qBs79Jq2Jcq3GJIBk4euU,4824
@@ -689,7 +689,7 @@ policyengine_uk/utils/create_triple_lock.py,sha256=E8qR51cq5jPL6EOXFoPi1qJhrcUBX
 policyengine_uk/utils/parameters.py,sha256=OQTzTkHMdwbphCo0mV7_n_FJT0rdwIKNFTsk_lsdETE,1301
 policyengine_uk/utils/solve_private_school_attendance_factor.py,sha256=LUZCgHKAQTY5qHlGJutn7pOFUWT0AP16YcJy-YUjQ3Q,1609
 policyengine_uk/utils/water/README.md,sha256=sdBI-JZ-jcRoSUfwNx5wjv5Ig_nM8OPvvjSsSMs_Wh8,443
-policyengine_uk/utils/water/forecast_water_bills.py,sha256=0wiX-1f5EI2iAEwqMg3J7oByFObsqQmylMgQvmONSmo,2555
+policyengine_uk/utils/water/forecast_water_bills.py,sha256=B4vtfJuR8XfBP-KHGyhRp2Oo7X7buN-lDH6tBIXqE2U,2788
 policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/cec/non_primary_residence_wealth_tax.py,sha256=Hx5HCHc9ioK6InqTgTt6fX9JwI0sroTLgPB5N5YCJz0,668
 policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/attends_private_school.py,sha256=OfTnVcRhuBNI6bIPdlbLdVvhCYWYu0eHTXNbLeGl3Bs,2422
 policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py,sha256=IF1XfNNYFuYPiZd4HiGF4aAiPcY1_vGA_nAgTW7M2wg,851
@@ -1368,10 +1368,10 @@ policyengine_uk/variables/misc/spi_imputed.py,sha256=iPVlBF_TisM0rtKvO-3-PQ2UYCe
 policyengine_uk/variables/misc/uc_migrated.py,sha256=zFNcUJaO8gwmbL1iY9GKgUt3G6J9yrCraqBV_5dCvlM,306
 policyengine_uk/variables/misc/categories/lower_middle_or_higher.py,sha256=C54tHYz2DmOyvQYCC1bF8RJwRZinhAq_e3aYC-9F5fM,157
 policyengine_uk/variables/misc/categories/lower_or_higher.py,sha256=81NIbLLabRr9NwjpUZDuV8IV8_mqmp5NM-CZvt55TwE,129
-policyengine_uk-2.39.0.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/CHANGELOG.md,sha256=KvU18ZBXdQYcd0jzGoFGHIl8_GG6_pQ0G4NJMZzuQFk,56283
-policyengine_uk-2.39.0.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/LICENSE,sha256=dql8h4yceoMhuzlcK0TT_i-NgTFNIZsgE47Q4t3dUYI,34520
-policyengine_uk-2.39.0.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/README.md,sha256=PCy7LRLdUDQS8U4PaeHeBVnyBZAqHv1dAVDDvEcom20,1976
-policyengine_uk-2.39.0.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=ILZCXSl-3ByPaMHPWyNpj8ldsYt5PTIBO7GzqToQVpI,3495
-policyengine_uk-2.39.0.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=qtCwoSJWgHk21S1Kb4ihdzI2rlJ1ZKaIurTj_ngOhyQ,87
-policyengine_uk-2.39.0.dist-info/licenses/LICENSE,sha256=dql8h4yceoMhuzlcK0TT_i-NgTFNIZsgE47Q4t3dUYI,34520
-policyengine_uk-2.39.0.dist-info/RECORD,,
+policyengine_uk-2.39.1.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/CHANGELOG.md,sha256=9xWtKSUL-NedCNAXY9dRa7PNH05UNpUArpSUZmmrapY,56445
+policyengine_uk-2.39.1.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/LICENSE,sha256=dql8h4yceoMhuzlcK0TT_i-NgTFNIZsgE47Q4t3dUYI,34520
+policyengine_uk-2.39.1.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/README.md,sha256=PCy7LRLdUDQS8U4PaeHeBVnyBZAqHv1dAVDDvEcom20,1976
+policyengine_uk-2.39.1.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=5_-o4LmxvmHaiNuDaGXTyGZezLTWoVwDEjRj-TrjYT8,3495
+policyengine_uk-2.39.1.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=qtCwoSJWgHk21S1Kb4ihdzI2rlJ1ZKaIurTj_ngOhyQ,87
+policyengine_uk-2.39.1.dist-info/licenses/LICENSE,sha256=dql8h4yceoMhuzlcK0TT_i-NgTFNIZsgE47Q4t3dUYI,34520
+policyengine_uk-2.39.1.dist-info/RECORD,,