policyengine-uk 2.36.1__py3-none-any.whl → 2.37.0__py3-none-any.whl

policyengine_uk/data/dataset_schema.py

@@ -86,6 +86,13 @@ class UKDataset:
             household=self.household.copy(),
         )
 
+    def validate(self):
+        # Check for NaNs in the tables
+        for df in self.tables:
+            for col in df.columns:
+                if df[col].isna().any():
+                    raise ValueError(f"Column '{col}' contains NaN values.")
+
     @staticmethod
     def from_simulation(
         simulation: "Microsimulation", fiscal_year: int = 2025

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml

@@ -263,3 +263,21 @@ ons:
       reference:
         - title: ONS Population Projections
           href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/
+ofwat:
+  water_bills:
+    description: Water and sewerage bills year-on-year growth.
+    values:
+      2022-01-01: 0.052
+      2023-01-01: 0.092
+      2024-01-01: 0.044
+      2025-01-01: 0.061
+      2026-01-01: 0.061
+      2027-01-01: 0.051
+      2028-01-01: 0.038
+      2029-01-01: 0.043
+    metadata:
+      unit: /1
+      label: water bills growth
+      reference:
+        - title: Ofwat (and custom projections)
+          href: https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/price-review/

policyengine_uk/utils/water/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+# Water bills projections
+
+In this folder, we have:
+
+* `forecast_water_bills.py` - A script that projects water bills based on historical data and proposed increases.
+* `ofwat_increases.csv` A CSV with the data from [here](https://www.ccw.org.uk/our-work/price-review/how-much-will-my-water-and-sewerage-bills-increase-by-2030/breakdown-of-water-companies-bill-increases-2025-30/) with proposed pre-inflation increases for each water company.

policyengine_uk/utils/water/forecast_water_bills.py

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+import pandas as pd
+from pathlib import Path
+
+
+def project_water_bills():
+    df_pre_2025 = pd.DataFrame(
+        {
+            "Year": [2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025],
+            "Oftwat avg bills (real)": [486, 470, 486, 492, 503],
+            "CPIH": [113.1, 123.0, 129.9, 134.0, 139.0],
+        }
+    )
+
+    df_pre_2025["Oftwat avg bills (nominal)"] = (
+        df_pre_2025["Oftwat avg bills (real)"] * df_pre_2025["CPIH"] / 100
+    )
+    df_pre_2025["Oftwat avg bills (nominal)"] = (
+        df_pre_2025["Oftwat avg bills (nominal)"]
+        / df_pre_2025["Oftwat avg bills (nominal)"].iloc[0]
+        * 100
+    ).round(1)
+    df_pre_2025["Nominal YoY change"] = (
+        df_pre_2025["Oftwat avg bills (nominal)"].pct_change() * 100
+    ).round(1)
+
+    proposed_increases = pd.read_csv(
+        Path(__file__).parent / "ofwat_increases.csv"
+    )
+    avg_bills_2025_onwards = (
+        proposed_increases[proposed_increases.columns[1:]].mean()[1:].values
+    )
+
+    df_post_2025 = pd.DataFrame(
+        {
+            "Year": [2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029],
+            "CPIH": [139.0, 142.2, 145.2, 148.2, 151.3],
+            "Pre-inflation avg bills (nominal)": avg_bills_2025_onwards,
+        }
+    )
+
+    # Add CPIH to each year's change
+
+    df_post_2025["Avg bills (nominal)"] = df_post_2025[
+        "Pre-inflation avg bills (nominal)"
+    ].values
+    df_post_2025["CPIH change"] = df_post_2025["CPIH"].pct_change() * 100
+
+    for year in range(2026, 2030):
+        row = df_post_2025[df_post_2025["Year"] == year].iloc[0]
+        cpi_change = (
+            row["CPIH"]
+            / df_post_2025[df_post_2025["Year"] == year - 1]["CPIH"].values[0]
+            - 1
+        ) * 100
+        # Increase the nominal bills by the CPIH change
+        addition = df_post_2025.loc[
+            df_post_2025["Year"] == year - 1, "Avg bills (nominal)"
+        ].values[0] * (cpi_change / 100)
+        # Add addition to this and future years
+        df_post_2025.loc[
+            df_post_2025["Year"] >= year, "Avg bills (nominal)"
+        ] += addition
+
+    df_post_2025["Relative change"] = (
+        df_post_2025["Avg bills (nominal)"].pct_change() * 100
+    ).round(1)
+
+    df_post_2025
+
+    combined_water_forecast = pd.DataFrame(
+        {
+            "Year": list(range(2022, 2030)),
+            "Average nominal bills YoY change": df_pre_2025[
+                "Nominal YoY change"
+            ].tolist()[1:]
+            + df_post_2025["Relative change"].tolist()[1:],
+        }
+    )
+
+    print(combined_water_forecast.to_markdown(index=False))

policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/water_and_sewerage_charges.py

@@ -7,3 +7,4 @@ class water_and_sewerage_charges(Variable):
     label = "water and sewerage charges"
     documentation = "Total amount spent on water and sewerage charges"
     definition_period = YEAR
+    uprating = "gov.economic_assumptions.indices.ofwat.water_bills"

{policyengine_uk-2.36.1.data → policyengine_uk-2.37.0.data}/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -5,6 +5,12 @@ All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
 The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/), 
 and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0.html).
 
+## [2.37.0] - 2025-07-14 10:36:08
+
+### Added
+
+- Water bills projections.
+
 ## [2.36.1] - 2025-07-13 19:47:46
 
 ### Fixed
@@ -1918,6 +1924,7 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 
 
 
+[2.37.0]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.36.1...2.37.0
 [2.36.1]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.36.0...2.36.1
 [2.36.0]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.35.1...2.36.0
 [2.35.1]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.35.0...2.35.1

{policyengine_uk-2.36.1.dist-info → policyengine_uk-2.37.0.dist-info}/METADATA

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.4
 Name: policyengine-uk
-Version: 2.36.1
+Version: 2.37.0
 Summary: PolicyEngine tax and benefit system for the UK
 Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
 Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

{policyengine_uk-2.36.1.dist-info → policyengine_uk-2.37.0.dist-info}/RECORD

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ policyengine_uk/modelled_policies.yaml,sha256=TLhvmkuI9ip-Fjq63n66RzDErCkN8K4BzY
 policyengine_uk/repo.py,sha256=-dqpIMUD7UUj94ql9XwaMrFJUYKvNhFQ_9uj83Z8uh0,55
 policyengine_uk/system.py,sha256=A17rqR23iIMdvskuucahMvGZnMxwzuTYqGiFGKRu9kE,8613
 policyengine_uk/data/__init__.py,sha256=9o7hH2qcHChfwDYq8Oqf2jE3b5WDS3TXJm3bf9VC4Ks,58
-policyengine_uk/data/dataset_schema.py,sha256=Ad7dt1zBQbL7nvZN2RoaucD5wj_zHkkFvTCpZXU8aN0,3694
+policyengine_uk/data/dataset_schema.py,sha256=kZuDKeBFBmK2B8MKWSAmDhHsTkzOY_WM5FnKcT8G4rA,3942
 policyengine_uk/data/economic_assumptions.py,sha256=heEro-NYCszFzW-TJ3Vt3DUUrpDkysOpyvZVymJN3-8,5722
 policyengine_uk/data/uprating_growth_factors.csv,sha256=6H5dq02mRsSgBJ9cYe4lut3fsvVzJXL20FvwT7SnlVc,10378
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/README.md,sha256=bHUep1_2pLHD3Or8SwjStOWXDIbW9OuYxOd4ml8IXcM,13
@@ -311,7 +311,7 @@ policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/state_pension
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/taxable_income_test/maximum_taxable_income.yaml,sha256=gLj2M2zoCMPuZ-0UgNSf-FTA5I4CCXhxBsd3qVro7Ck,260
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/taxable_income_test/use_maximum_taxable_income.yaml,sha256=pHldHvNHeGhG0mcn7LvjYA3b-q_AxrAxm5bu-mkTn1A,261
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/create_economic_assumption_indices.py,sha256=Z4dYghSit5gXo4V3wBpnLIc9zgTX4cfEyb_TUlJkTGY,1937
-policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml,sha256=LyvtJYhIekZQkEtpy-CkqGOyhnukAqpwEQdbfJLxBZU,6959
+policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml,sha256=D4EiVeOtPiFdNAeLos8nxMLwPk0avInFtr2g5XtSl4s,7428
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/README.md,sha256=nkHVZl6lsjI93sR8uC7wAbul3_61wJrsP08iaW8f5lk,7
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/minimum_wage.yaml,sha256=1oMbevU0ESHR51mcAG39POd1DA1FgPUep4hL6ojj-P4,2049
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/README.md,sha256=9ud50i_gMjGj6VymF-nzFDTzkFRMMJx6ybpLwbWzvpI,17
@@ -686,6 +686,8 @@ policyengine_uk/utils/__init__.py,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TImW-5JCeuQeRkm5NMpJWZG3h
 policyengine_uk/utils/create_triple_lock.py,sha256=E8qR51cq5jPL6EOXFoPi1qJhrcUBXg3dfWTvdqWN2Bo,948
 policyengine_uk/utils/parameters.py,sha256=OQTzTkHMdwbphCo0mV7_n_FJT0rdwIKNFTsk_lsdETE,1301
 policyengine_uk/utils/solve_private_school_attendance_factor.py,sha256=LUZCgHKAQTY5qHlGJutn7pOFUWT0AP16YcJy-YUjQ3Q,1609
+policyengine_uk/utils/water/README.md,sha256=sdBI-JZ-jcRoSUfwNx5wjv5Ig_nM8OPvvjSsSMs_Wh8,443
+policyengine_uk/utils/water/forecast_water_bills.py,sha256=0wiX-1f5EI2iAEwqMg3J7oByFObsqQmylMgQvmONSmo,2555
 policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/cec/non_primary_residence_wealth_tax.py,sha256=Hx5HCHc9ioK6InqTgTt6fX9JwI0sroTLgPB5N5YCJz0,668
 policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/attends_private_school.py,sha256=OfTnVcRhuBNI6bIPdlbLdVvhCYWYu0eHTXNbLeGl3Bs,2422
 policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py,sha256=IF1XfNNYFuYPiZd4HiGF4aAiPcY1_vGA_nAgTW7M2wg,851
@@ -1358,16 +1360,16 @@ policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/mortgage_interest_repayment
 policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/non_residential_rent.py,sha256=ksf_xqI_iezcZzRG4TNHDJGcPji8ar1diRmw84RKpR0,316
 policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/personal_pension_contributions.py,sha256=dZToRCzd-0QhCE2hDnpzqIfjx_uPv2keNK4VblzbpdU,293
 policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/property_purchased.py,sha256=an296H9Lqw2fFcQLqQeUFv5e0Y7RW0MPjU90CF4o7D0,292
-policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/water_and_sewerage_charges.py,sha256=MQK3USx_JNPvIuKL_-kcn3AI64rqAjHvBv7tcYD6Y6I,273
+policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/water_and_sewerage_charges.py,sha256=nuv-35GU4hiRYfqjjS58YE4UZ2i3Z-TgSKlFSWKrW3M,341
 policyengine_uk/variables/misc/in_original_frs.py,sha256=sqqMJDPkhqaWBjCXU6W06JZLge0qxVD-B-iumHs0DI0,303
 policyengine_uk/variables/misc/spi_imputed.py,sha256=iPVlBF_TisM0rtKvO-3-PQ2UYCe6CVOm5sDPv97XFnU,298
 policyengine_uk/variables/misc/uc_migrated.py,sha256=zFNcUJaO8gwmbL1iY9GKgUt3G6J9yrCraqBV_5dCvlM,306
 policyengine_uk/variables/misc/categories/lower_middle_or_higher.py,sha256=C54tHYz2DmOyvQYCC1bF8RJwRZinhAq_e3aYC-9F5fM,157
 policyengine_uk/variables/misc/categories/lower_or_higher.py,sha256=81NIbLLabRr9NwjpUZDuV8IV8_mqmp5NM-CZvt55TwE,129
-policyengine_uk-2.36.1.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/CHANGELOG.md,sha256=m-ZT7wfCBbHi9WgVmDIhNNhPBA5zjAOUSdn3FzLBvgg,55384
-policyengine_uk-2.36.1.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/LICENSE,sha256=dql8h4yceoMhuzlcK0TT_i-NgTFNIZsgE47Q4t3dUYI,34520
-policyengine_uk-2.36.1.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/README.md,sha256=PCy7LRLdUDQS8U4PaeHeBVnyBZAqHv1dAVDDvEcom20,1976
-policyengine_uk-2.36.1.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=ODug4dKAhvlw8nUOuFoCngAgorw6BulDbr93nKFMsio,3453
-policyengine_uk-2.36.1.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=qtCwoSJWgHk21S1Kb4ihdzI2rlJ1ZKaIurTj_ngOhyQ,87
-policyengine_uk-2.36.1.dist-info/licenses/LICENSE,sha256=dql8h4yceoMhuzlcK0TT_i-NgTFNIZsgE47Q4t3dUYI,34520
-policyengine_uk-2.36.1.dist-info/RECORD,,
+policyengine_uk-2.37.0.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/CHANGELOG.md,sha256=VOafV5TKivt1vJtRfwzFfcUyOXUEg-dp1EvX18Ginzo,55537
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+policyengine_uk-2.37.0.data/data/share/openfisca/openfisca-country-template/README.md,sha256=PCy7LRLdUDQS8U4PaeHeBVnyBZAqHv1dAVDDvEcom20,1976
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+policyengine_uk-2.37.0.dist-info/licenses/LICENSE,sha256=dql8h4yceoMhuzlcK0TT_i-NgTFNIZsgE47Q4t3dUYI,34520
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