policyengine-uk 2.35.0__py3-none-any.whl

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/stamp_duty/statistics.yaml

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+description: Stamp Duty Land Tax statistics
+metadata:
+  economy: false
+  propagate_metadata_to_children: true
+  reference:
+  - href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-stamp-tax-statistics
+    title: UK Stamp Tax statistics
+  unit: currency-GBP
+non_residential:
+  corporate:
+    revenue:
+      2019-01-01: 2965000000
+      2020-01-01: 2425000000
+    transaction_values:
+      2019-01-01: 103395000000
+      2020-01-01: 77080000000
+    transactions:
+      2019-01-01: 78800
+      2020-01-01: 65300
+  household:
+    revenue:
+      2019-01-01: 210000000
+      2020-01-01: 230000000
+    transaction_values:
+      2019-01-01: 7025000000
+      2020-01-01: 7150000000
+    transactions:
+      2019-01-01: 27800
+      2020-01-01: 24500
+  metadata:
+    reference:
+    - href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-stamp-tax-statistics
+      title: UK Stamp Tax statistics (Table 6b)
+residential:
+  corporate:
+    revenue:
+      2019-01-01: 885000000
+      2020-01-01: 705000000
+    transaction_values:
+      2019-01-01: 31640000000
+      2020-01-01: 30460000000
+    transactions:
+      2019-01-01: 104200
+      2020-01-01: 91600
+  household:
+    first_time_buyers_relief:
+      brackets:
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 400
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 0
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 12500
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 20
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 38200
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 25
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 26500
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 30
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 13700
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 35
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 6900
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 40
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 3400
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 45
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 1700
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 50
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 900
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 55
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 300
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 60
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 100
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 65
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 100
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 70
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 0
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 75
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 100
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 80
+      description: Number of claims for First Time Buyer's Relief
+      metadata:
+        reference:
+        - href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-stamp-tax-statistics
+          title: UK Stamp Tax statistics (Table 6a) (Experimental)
+    revenue:
+      2019-01-01: 7540000000
+      2020-01-01: 5310000000
+    transaction_values:
+      2019-01-01: 269690000000
+      2020-01-01: 310380000000
+    transactions:
+      2019-01-01: 918600
+      2020-01-01: 933700
+    transactions_by_age:
+      brackets:
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 2100
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 0
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 34300
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 20
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 121100
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 25
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 139600
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 30
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 114200
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 35
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 88400
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 40
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 70400
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 45
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 66200
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 50
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 62300
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 55
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 46500
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 60
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 34300
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 65
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 26800
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 70
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 16100
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 75
+      - amount:
+          2020-01-01: 15400
+        threshold:
+          2018-01-01: 80
+      description: Number of transactions by age
+      metadata:
+        reference:
+        - href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-stamp-tax-statistics
+          title: UK Stamp Tax statistics (Table 6c) (Experimental)
+  metadata:
+    reference:
+    - href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-stamp-tax-statistics
+      title: UK Stamp Tax statistics (Table 6a)

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/tax_free_childcare/age/disability.yaml

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+description: HMRC extends the tax-free childcare program eligibility to children with disabilities up to this age threshold.
+metadata:
+  unit: year
+  period: year
+  label: tax-free childcare disability age limit
+  reference:
+    - title: Childcare Payments Act 2014 - c. 28 - section 14
+      href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/28/notes/division/6/4/1
+    - title: Tax-free childcare guidance
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/tax-free-childcare?step-by-step-nav=d78aeaf6-1747-4d72-9619-f16efb4dd89d
+values:
+  2015-01-01: 17

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/tax_free_childcare/age/standard.yaml

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+description: HMRC extends the tax-free childcare program eligibility to children up to this age threshold.
+metadata:
+  unit: year
+  period: year
+  label: tax-free childcare standard age limit
+  reference:
+    - title: Childcare Payments Act 2014 - c. 28 - section 14
+      href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/28/notes/division/6/4/1
+    - title: Tax-free childcare guidance
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/tax-free-childcare?step-by-step-nav=d78aeaf6-1747-4d72-9619-f16efb4dd89d
+values:
+  2015-01-01: 12

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/tax_free_childcare/contribution/disabled_child.yaml

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+description: HMRC provides tax-free childcare contribution up to this yearly amount for households with disabled children.
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-GBP
+  period: year
+  label: tax-free childcare disabled child yearly limit
+  reference:
+    - title: Childcare Payments Act 2014 - c. 28 - section 19
+      href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/28/notes/division/6/5/5
+    - title: Tax-free childcare guidance
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/tax-free-childcare?step-by-step-nav=d78aeaf6-1747-4d72-9619-f16efb4dd89d
+values:
+  2015-01-01: 4_000

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/tax_free_childcare/contribution/rate.yaml

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+description: The government contribution to childcare expenses (as a percentage of total household and government contributions) is this percentage.
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: tax-free childcare contribution rate
+  reference:
+    - title: Childcare Payments Act 2014 - section 21
+      href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/28/notes/division/6/5/7
+    - title: Tax-Free Childcare guidance
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/tax-free-childcare?step-by-step-nav=d78aeaf6-1747-4d72-9619-f16efb4dd89d
+values:
+  2015-01-01: 0.2

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/tax_free_childcare/contribution/standard_child.yaml

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+description: HMRC provides tax-free childcare contribution up to this yearly amount for households with children under standard eligibility.
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-GBP
+  period: year
+  label: tax-free childcare standard yearly limit
+  reference:
+    - title: Childcare Payments Act 2014 - c. 28 - section 19
+      href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/28/notes/division/6/5/5
+    - title: Tax-free childcare guidance
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/tax-free-childcare?step-by-step-nav=d78aeaf6-1747-4d72-9619-f16efb4dd89d
+values:
+  2015-01-01: 2_000

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/tax_free_childcare/disqualifying_benefits.yaml

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+description: HMRC limits Tax-Free Childcare to benefit units that do not receive any of these programs.
+metadata:
+  reference: 
+  - title: The Childcare Payments (Eligibility) Regulations 2015 - Part 16 and 18
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2015/9780111127063
+  period: year
+  unit: program
+  label: tax-free childcare disqualifying benefits
+values:
+  2015-01-01:
+    - working_tax_credit
+    - child_tax_credit
+    - universal_credit

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/tax_free_childcare/income/countable_sources.yaml

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+description: HMRC includes these income sources when determining eligibility for Tax-Free Childcare.
+metadata:
+  reference:
+    - title: The Childcare Payments (Eligibility) Regulations 2015 - Part 9 and 10
+      href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2015/9780111127063
+  period: year
+  unit: program
+  label: tax-free childcare countable income sources
+values:
+  2015-01-01:
+    - employment_income
+    - self_employment_income

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/tax_free_childcare/income/income_limit.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+description: HMRC limits tax-free childcare eligibility to households where individual adjusted income does not exceed this yearly threshold.
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-GBP
+  period: year
+  label: tax-free childcare maximum adjusted income threshold
+  reference:
+    - title: The Childcare Payments (Eligibility) Regulations 2015 - Regulation 15
+      href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2015/448/regulation/15#commentary-key-e27c923eee152accd495af8425536e29
+    - title: Tax-free childcare guidance
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/tax-free-childcare?step-by-step-nav=d78aeaf6-1747-4d72-9619-f16efb4dd89d
+values:
+  2015-01-01: 100_000

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/tax_free_childcare/minimum_weekly_hours.yaml

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+description: HMRC limits tax-free childcare to benefit units in which each spouse earns at least the product of their minimum wage and this number of hours per week.
+metadata:
+  period: year
+  unit: hour
+  label: tax-free childcare weekly work hours minimum
+  reference:
+    - title: The Childcare Payments (Eligibility) (Amendment) Regulations 2016 - regulation 3
+      href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2016/793/regulation/3/made
+values:
+  2016-01-01: 16

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/vat/reduced_rate.yaml

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+description: A reduced rate of VAT applicable to select goods and services (domestic fuel and power).
+values:
+  1994-04-01: 0.05
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  reference:
+    - title: GOV.UK
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rates-of-vat-on-different-goods-and-services#power-utilities-energy-and-energy-saving-heating
+  label: VAT reduced rate

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/vat/reduced_rate_share.yaml

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+description: Assumed share of expenditure which is reduced-rate VAT liable.
+metadata:
+  economy: false
+  propagate_metadata_to_children: true
+  reference:
+  - href: https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/vat/
+    title: OBR
+  unit: /1
+values:
+  2000-01-01: 0.03

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/vat/standard_rate.yaml

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+description: The highest VAT rate, applicable to most goods and services.
+values:
+  1973-04-01: 0.1
+  1974-07-29: 0.08
+  1979-06-18: 0.15
+  1991-04-01: 0.175
+  2008-12-01: 0.15
+  2010-01-01: 0.175
+  2011-01-04: 0.2
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  reference:
+    - title: LexisNexis historic VAT rates
+      href: https://www.lexisnexis.co.uk/tolley/tax/guidance/historic-vat-rates
+  label: VAT standard rate

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/indices/private_rent_index.yaml

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+description: Index of private rental prices across the UK.
+values:
+  2015-01-01: 100.0
+  2015-02-01: 100.2
+  2015-03-01: 100.3
+  2015-04-01: 100.6
+  2015-05-01: 100.9
+  2015-06-01: 101.0
+  2015-07-01: 101.2
+  2015-08-01: 101.5
+  2015-09-01: 101.7
+  2015-10-01: 101.8
+  2015-11-01: 102.1
+  2015-12-01: 102.2
+  2016-01-01: 102.6
+  2016-02-01: 102.7
+  2016-03-01: 102.9
+  2016-04-01: 103.2
+  2016-05-01: 103.4
+  2016-06-01: 103.4
+  2016-07-01: 103.6
+  2016-08-01: 103.8
+  2016-09-01: 104.0
+  2016-10-01: 104.2
+  2016-11-01: 104.4
+  2016-12-01: 104.6
+  2017-01-01: 104.8
+  2017-02-01: 104.9
+  2017-03-01: 104.9
+  2017-04-01: 105.1
+  2017-05-01: 105.2
+  2017-06-01: 105.3
+  2017-07-01: 105.4
+  2017-08-01: 105.5
+  2017-09-01: 105.6
+  2017-10-01: 105.7
+  2017-11-01: 105.8
+  2017-12-01: 105.9
+  2018-01-01: 106.0
+  2018-02-01: 106.0
+  2018-03-01: 106.1
+  2018-04-01: 106.1
+  2018-05-01: 106.2
+  2018-06-01: 106.3
+  2018-07-01: 106.4
+  2018-08-01: 106.5
+  2018-09-01: 106.6
+  2018-10-01: 106.7
+  2018-11-01: 106.8
+  2018-12-01: 107.0
+  2019-01-01: 107.1
+  2019-02-01: 107.2
+  2019-03-01: 107.3
+  2019-04-01: 107.4
+  2019-05-01: 107.6
+  2019-06-01: 107.7
+  2019-07-01: 107.8
+  2019-08-01: 107.9
+  2019-09-01: 108.0
+  2019-10-01: 108.1
+  2019-11-01: 108.3
+  2019-12-01: 108.5
+  2020-01-01: 108.6
+  2020-02-01: 108.7
+  2020-03-01: 108.8
+  2020-04-01: 109.0
+  2020-05-01: 109.2
+  2020-06-01: 109.3
+  2020-07-01: 109.3
+  2020-08-01: 109.5
+  2020-09-01: 109.6
+  2020-10-01: 109.7
+  2020-11-01: 109.8
+  2020-12-01: 110.0
+  2021-01-01: 110.0
+  2021-02-01: 110.1
+  2021-03-01: 110.2
+  2021-04-01: 110.3
+  2021-05-01: 110.4
+  2021-06-01: 110.6
+  2021-07-01: 110.7
+  2021-08-01: 110.9
+  2021-09-01: 111.1
+  2021-10-01: 111.4
+  2021-11-01: 111.7
+  2021-12-01: 112.0
+  2022-01-01: 112.3
+  2022-02-01: 112.5
+  2022-03-01: 112.8
+  2022-04-01: 113.2
+  2022-05-01: 113.6
+  2022-06-01: 113.9
+  2022-07-01: 114.3
+  2022-08-01: 114.7
+  2022-09-01: 115.2
+  2022-10-01: 115.6
+  2022-11-01: 116.2
+  2022-12-01: 116.7
+  2023-01-01: 117.3
+  2023-02-01: 117.7
+  2023-03-01: 118.1
+  2023-04-01: 118.7
+  2023-05-01: 119.2
+  2023-06-01: 119.8
+  2023-07-01: 120.4
+  2023-08-01: 121.1
+  2023-09-01: 121.8
+  2023-10-01: 122.7
+  2023-11-01: 123.4
+  2023-12-01: 123.9
+  2024-01-01: 124.6
+metadata:
+  label: Private rental prices index
+  uprating: gov.obr.consumer_price_index
+  reference:
+    - title: ONS Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, UK monthly estimates
+      href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/indexofprivatehousingrentalpricesreferencetables

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/local_authorities/README.md

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+# Local Authorities

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/local_authorities/domestic_rates/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+# Domestic Rates

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/local_authorities/domestic_rates/rates.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+ANTRIM_AND_NEWTOWNABBEY:
+  2022-01-01: 0.008292
+ARDS_AND_NORTH_DOWN:
+  2022-01-01: 0.008192
+ARMAGH_CITY_BANBRIDGE_AND_CRAIGAVON:
+  2022-01-01: 0.00917
+BELFAST:
+  2022-01-01: 0.008136
+CAUSEWAY_COAST_AND_GLENS:
+  2022-01-01: 0.008702
+DERRY_CITY_AND_STRABANE:
+  2022-01-01: 0.009853
+FERMANAGH_AND_OMAGH:
+  2022-01-01: 0.008393
+LISBURN_AND_CASTLEREAGH:
+  2022-01-01: 0.007847
+MID_AND_EAST_ANTRIM:
+  2022-01-01: 0.009149
+MID_ULSTER:
+  2022-01-01: 0.008079
+NEWRY_MOURNE_AND_DOWN:
+  2022-01-01: 0.00872
+description: Annual domestic rates for each local authority.
+metadata:
+  economy: false
+  propagate_metadata_to_children: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/add_per_capita_parameters.py

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+from policyengine_core.parameters import (
+    ParameterNode,
+    Parameter,
+    get_parameter,
+)
+
+PARAMETERS_TO_ADD_FOR = [
+    "gov.obr.employment_income",
+    "gov.obr.mixed_income",
+    "gov.obr.non_labour_income",
+    "gov.obr.gdp",
+]
+
+YEARS = list(range(2019, 2035))
+
+
+def add_per_capita_parameters(parameters: ParameterNode) -> ParameterNode:
+    population = parameters.gov.ons.population
+
+    new_node = ParameterNode("gov.obr.per_capita", data={})
+
+    for parameter in PARAMETERS_TO_ADD_FOR:
+        parameter_node: ParameterNode = get_parameter(parameters, parameter)
+        values = {}
+        for year in YEARS:
+            parameter_per_capita = round(
+                parameter_node(year) * 1e9 / population(year)
+            )
+            values[f"{year}-01-01"] = parameter_per_capita
+        name = parameter_node.name.split(".")[-1]
+        new_parameter = Parameter(
+            "gov.obr.per_capita." + name,
+            data={
+                "values": values,
+            },
+        )
+        new_node.add_child(name, new_parameter)
+
+    parameters.gov.obr.add_child("per_capita", new_node)
+    return parameters

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+description: Average earnings index.
+values:
+  2008-01-01: 100.0
+  2009-01-01: 101.8
+  2010-01-01: 102.7
+  2011-01-01: 104.3
+  2012-01-01: 105.0
+  2013-01-01: 109.9
+  2014-01-01: 110.5
+  2015-01-01: 112.8
+  2016-01-01: 115.4
+  2017-01-01: 119.1
+  2018-01-01: 122.2
+  2019-01-01: 124.8
+  2020-01-01: 125.2
+  2021-01-01: 132.5
+  2022-01-01: 141.1
+  2023-01-01: 150.8
+  2024-01-01: 157.8
+  2025-01-01: 163.7
+  2026-01-01: 167.2
+  2027-01-01: 170.7
+  2028-01-01: 174.5
+  2029-01-01: 178.9
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-GBP
+  label: average earnings
+  reference:
+    - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.6, Row Q)
+      href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+description: OBR forecast for CPI
+values:
+  2005-01-01: 90
+  2009-01-01: 87.3
+  2010-01-01: 90.3
+  2011-01-01: 94.2
+  2012-01-01: 96.7
+  2013-01-01: 98.9
+  2014-01-01: 100.0
+  2015-01-01: 100.1
+  2016-01-01: 101.2
+  2017-01-01: 104.1
+  2018-01-01: 106.4
+  2019-01-01: 108.3
+  2020-01-01: 108.9
+  2021-01-01: 113.2
+  2022-01-01: 124.6
+  2023-01-01: 131.7
+  2024-01-01: 134.7
+  2025-01-01: 139.0
+  2026-01-01: 141.7
+  2027-01-01: 144.5
+  2028-01-01: 147.4
+  2029-01-01: 150.4
+metadata:
+  reference:
+    - title: OBR March 2025 EFO
+      href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/council_tax.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+description: OBR forecast for council tax per household.
+values:
+  2023-01-01: 1_851.4  # 44.5bn / 24.041m households = £1,851 per household
+  2024-01-01: 1_970.1  # 47.7bn / 24.209m households = £1,970 per household
+  2025-01-01: 2_060.1  # 50.2bn / 24.367m households = £2,060 per household
+  2026-01-01: 2_152.7  # 52.8bn / 24.525m households = £2,153 per household
+  2027-01-01: 2_252.9  # 55.6bn / 24.686m households = £2,253 per household
+  2028-01-01: 2_354.3  # 58.5bn / 24.844m households = £2,354 per household
+  2029-01-01: 2_460.4  # 61.5bn / 24.998m households = £2,460 per household
+metadata:
+  label: Council tax uprating
+  reference:
+    - title: OBR March 2025 EFO
+      href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
+  # Calculations based on:
+  # - Council tax receipts from OBR March 2025 EFO, Table A.5: Current receipts (£bn)
+  # - Household population data from ons.household.yaml
+  # - Per household = Total receipts (£bn) / Number of households (millions) × 1000

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/employment_income.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+description: OBR forecast for employment income.
+values:
+  2008-01-01: 659.1
+  2009-01-01: 657.0
+  2010-01-01: 666.8
+  2011-01-01: 675.7
+  2012-01-01: 688.8
+  2013-01-01: 730.0
+  2014-01-01: 748.9
+  2015-01-01: 775.6
+  2016-01-01: 802.3
+  2017-01-01: 837.8
+  2018-01-01: 870.1
+  2019-01-01: 896.3
+  2020-01-01: 898.0
+  2021-01-01: 966.5
+  2022-01-01: 1041.6
+  2023-01-01: 1120.5
+  2024-01-01: 1188.6
+  2025-01-01: 1239.8
+  2026-01-01: 1272.5
+  2027-01-01: 1305.3
+  2028-01-01: 1340.7
+  2029-01-01: 1382.0
+metadata:
+  reference:
+    - title: OBR March 2025 EFO
+      href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/extend_forecast.py

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+from policyengine_core.parameters import (
+    ParameterNode,
+    Parameter,
+    get_parameter,
+)
+
+PARAMETERS_TO_EXTEND = [
+    "gov.obr.employment_income",
+    "gov.obr.mixed_income",
+    "gov.obr.non_labour_income",
+    "gov.obr.house_prices",
+    "gov.obr.consumer_price_index",
+    "gov.obr.mortgage_interest",
+    "gov.obr.rent",
+]
+
+YEARS = list(range(2030, 2035))
+
+
+def extend_obr_forecast(
+    parameters: ParameterNode, lookback: int = 5
+) -> ParameterNode:
+    for parameter in PARAMETERS_TO_EXTEND:
+        # Extend with the the trend from the last 5 years of the forecast.
+        parameter: Parameter = get_parameter(parameters, parameter)
+        lookback_start_value = parameter(YEARS[0] - lookback)
+        lookback_end_value = parameter(YEARS[0] - 1)
+        trend = (lookback_end_value - lookback_start_value) / lookback
+        for year in YEARS:
+            new_value = parameter(year - 1) + trend
+            parameter.update(start=year, value=new_value, stop=None)
+    return parameters