openenergyid 0.1.21__py3-none-any.whl

openenergyid/mvlr/mvlr.py

@@ -0,0 +1,450 @@
+"""Multi-variable linear regression based on statsmodels
+and Ordinary Least Squares (ols)."""
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+import statsmodels.formula.api as fm
+from patsy import LookupFactor, ModelDesc, Term  # pylint: disable=no-name-in-module
+from statsmodels.sandbox.regression.predstd import wls_prediction_std
+
+from openenergyid.enums import Granularity
+
+
+class MultiVariableLinearRegression:
+    """Multi-variable linear regression.
+
+    Based on statsmodels and Ordinary Least Squares (ols).
+
+    Pass a dataframe with the variable to be modelled y (dependent variable)
+    and the possible independent variables x.
+    Specify as string the name of the dependent variable, and optionally pass a list with names of
+    independent variables to try
+    (by default all other columns will be tried as independent variables).
+
+    The analysis is based on a forward-selection approach: starting from a simple model,
+    the model is iteratively refined and verified until no statistical relevant improvements
+    can be obtained.
+    Each model in the iteration loop is stored in the attribute self.list_of_fits.
+    The selected model is self.fit (=pointer to the last element of self.list_of_fits).
+
+    The dataframe can contain daily, weekly, monthly, yearly ... values.  Each row is an instance.
+    """
+
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        data: pd.DataFrame,
+        y: str,
+        p_max: float = 0.05,
+        list_of_x: list[str] = None,
+        confint: float = 0.95,
+        cross_validation: bool = False,
+        allow_negative_predictions: bool = False,
+        granularity: Granularity = None,
+        single_use_exog_prefixes: list[str] = None,
+        exogs__disallow_negative_coefficient: list[str] = None,
+    ):
+        """Parameters
+        ----------
+        data : TimeSeries
+            Datetimeindex and both independent variables (x) and dependent variable (y) as columns
+        y : str
+            Name of the dependent (endogeneous) variable to model
+        p_max : float (default=0.05)
+            Acceptable p-value of the t-statistic for estimated parameters
+        list_of_x : list of str (default=None)
+            If None (default), try to build a model with all columns in the dataframe
+            If a list with column names is given, only try these columns as independent variables
+        confint : float, default=0.95
+            Two-sided confidence interval for predictions.
+        cross_validation : bool, default=False
+            If True, compute the model based on cross-validation (leave one out)
+            Only possible if the df has less than 15 entries.
+            Note: this will take much longer computation times!
+        allow_negative_predictions : bool, default=False
+            If True, allow predictions to be negative.
+            For gas consumption or PV production, this is not physical
+            so allow_negative_predictions should be False
+        granularity : Granularity, default=None
+            Granularity of the data. Is only used for the output of the model.
+            If None, the granularity is not set.
+        single_use_exog_prefixes : list of str, default=None
+            List of variable prefixes that indicate a variable type that should only be used once.
+            For example, if the list contains "HDD", only one of the columns "HDD1", "HDD2", "HDD3" etc.
+            will be used as an independent variable.
+            Once the best fit using a variable with a given prefix is found, the other variables with the same
+            prefix will not be used as independent variables.
+        exogs__disallow_negative_coefficient : list of str, default=None
+            List of variable names for which the coefficient is not allowed to be negative.
+        """
+        self.data = data.copy()
+        if y not in self.data.columns:
+            raise AssertionError(
+                f"The dependent variable {y} is not a column in the dataframe",
+            )
+        self.y = y
+
+        self.p_max = p_max
+        self.list_of_x = list_of_x or [x for x in self.data.columns if x != self.y]
+        self.confint = confint
+        self.cross_validation = cross_validation
+        self.allow_negative_predictions = allow_negative_predictions
+        self.granularity = granularity
+        self.single_use_exog_prefixes = single_use_exog_prefixes
+        self.exogs__disallow_negative_coefficient = exogs__disallow_negative_coefficient
+        self._fit = None
+        self._list_of_fits = []
+        self.list_of_cverrors = []
+
+    @property
+    def fit(self) -> fm.ols:
+        """Fits a model to the data.
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+            The fitted model.
+
+        Raises
+        ------
+            UnboundLocalError: If `do_analysis()` has not been run before calling `fit()`.
+        """
+        if self._fit is None:
+            raise UnboundLocalError(
+                'Run "do_analysis()" first to fit a model to the data.',
+            )
+        else:
+            return self._fit
+
+    @property
+    def list_of_fits(self) -> list[fm.ols]:
+        """Returns the list of fits generated by the model.
+
+        Raises
+        ------
+            UnboundLocalError: If the model has not been fitted yet.
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+            list: The list of fits generated by the model.
+        """
+        if not self._list_of_fits:
+            raise UnboundLocalError(
+                'Run "do_analysis()" first to fit a model to the data.',
+            )
+        else:
+            return self._list_of_fits
+
+    def do_analysis(self):
+        """Find the best model (fit) and create self.list_of_fits and self.fit"""
+        if self.cross_validation:
+            return self._do_analysis_cross_validation()
+        else:
+            return self._do_analysis_no_cross_validation()
+
+    def _do_analysis_no_cross_validation(self):
+        """Find the best model (fit) and create self.list_of_fits and self.fit"""
+        # first model is just the mean
+        response_term = [Term([LookupFactor(self.y)])]
+        model_terms = [Term([])]  # empty term is the intercept
+        all_model_terms_dict = {x: Term([LookupFactor(x)]) for x in self.list_of_x}
+        # ...then add another term for each candidate
+        # model_terms += [Term([LookupFactor(c)]) for c in candidates]
+        model_desc = ModelDesc(response_term, model_terms)
+        self._list_of_fits.append(fm.ols(model_desc, data=self.data).fit())
+        # try to improve the model until no improvements can be found
+
+        while all_model_terms_dict:
+            # try each x and overwrite the best_fit if we find a better one
+            # the first best_fit is the one from the previous round
+            ref_fit = self._list_of_fits[-1]
+            best_fit = self._list_of_fits[-1]
+            best_bic = best_fit.bic
+            for x, term in all_model_terms_dict.items():
+                # make new_fit, compare with best found so far
+                model_desc = ModelDesc(
+                    response_term,
+                    ref_fit.model.formula.rhs_termlist + [term],
+                )
+                fit = fm.ols(model_desc, data=self.data).fit()
+
+                # Check if the coefficient of the variable is allowed to be negative
+                if (
+                    self.exogs__disallow_negative_coefficient is not None
+                    and x in self.exogs__disallow_negative_coefficient
+                    and fit.params[x] < 0
+                ):
+                    continue
+
+                if fit.bic < best_bic:
+                    best_bic = fit.bic
+                    best_fit = fit
+                    best_x = x
+            # Sometimes, the obtained fit may be better, but contains unsignificant parameters.
+            # Correct the fit by removing the unsignificant parameters and estimate again
+            best_fit = self._prune(best_fit, p_max=self.p_max)
+
+            # if best_fit does not contain more variables than ref fit, exit
+            if len(best_fit.model.formula.rhs_termlist) == len(
+                ref_fit.model.formula.rhs_termlist,
+            ):
+                break
+
+            self._list_of_fits.append(best_fit)
+            all_model_terms_dict.pop(best_x)
+
+            # Check if `best_x` starts with a prefix that should only be used once
+            # If so, remove all other variables with the same prefix from the list of candidates
+            if self.single_use_exog_prefixes:
+                for prefix in self.single_use_exog_prefixes:
+                    if best_x.startswith(prefix):
+                        all_model_terms_dict = {
+                            k: v
+                            for k, v in all_model_terms_dict.items()
+                            if not k.startswith(prefix)
+                        }
+
+        self._fit = self._list_of_fits[-1]
+
+    def _do_analysis_cross_validation(self):
+        """Find the best model (fit) based on cross-valiation (leave one out)"""
+        assert (
+            len(self.data) < 15
+        ), "Cross-validation is not implemented if your sample contains more than 15 datapoints"
+
+        # initialization: first model is the mean, but compute cv correctly.
+        errors = []
+        response_term = [Term([LookupFactor(self.y)])]
+        model_terms = [Term([])]  # empty term is the intercept
+        model_desc = ModelDesc(response_term, model_terms)
+        for i in self.data.index:
+            # make new_fit, compute cross-validation and store error
+            df_ = self.data.drop(i, axis=0)
+            fit = fm.ols(model_desc, data=df_).fit()
+            cross_prediction = self._predict(fit=fit, data=self.data.loc[[i], :])
+            errors.append(cross_prediction["predicted"] - cross_prediction[self.y])
+
+        self._list_of_fits = [fm.ols(model_desc, data=self.data).fit()]
+        self.list_of_cverrors = [np.mean(np.abs(np.array(errors)))]
+
+        # try to improve the model until no improvements can be found
+        all_model_terms_dict = {x: Term([LookupFactor(x)]) for x in self.list_of_x}
+        while all_model_terms_dict:
+            # import pdb;pdb.set_trace()
+            # try each x in all_exog and overwrite if we find a better one
+            # at the end of iteration (and not earlier), save the best of the iteration
+            better_model_found = False
+            best = dict(fit=self._list_of_fits[-1], cverror=self.list_of_cverrors[-1])
+            for x, term in all_model_terms_dict.items():
+                model_desc = ModelDesc(
+                    response_term,
+                    self._list_of_fits[-1].model.formula.rhs_termlist + [term],
+                )
+                # cross_validation, currently only implemented for monthly data
+                # compute the mean error for a given formula based on leave-one-out.
+                errors = []
+                for i in self.data.index:
+                    # make new_fit, compute cross-validation and store error
+                    df_ = self.data.drop(i, axis=0)
+                    fit = fm.ols(model_desc, data=df_).fit()
+                    cross_prediction = self._predict(
+                        fit=fit,
+                        data=self.data.loc[[i], :],
+                    )
+                    errors.append(
+                        cross_prediction["predicted"] - cross_prediction[self.y],
+                    )
+                cverror = np.mean(np.abs(np.array(errors)))
+                # compare the model with the current fit
+                if cverror < best["cverror"]:
+                    # better model, keep it
+                    # first, reidentify using all the datapoints
+                    best["fit"] = fm.ols(model_desc, data=self.data).fit()
+                    best["cverror"] = cverror
+                    better_model_found = True
+                    best_x = x
+
+            if better_model_found:
+                self._list_of_fits.append(best["fit"])
+                self.list_of_cverrors.append(best["cverror"])
+
+            else:
+                # if we did not find a better model, exit
+                break
+
+            # next iteration with the found exog removed
+            all_model_terms_dict.pop(best_x)
+
+            # Check if `best_x` starts with a prefix that should only be used once
+            # If so, remove all other variables with the same prefix from the list of candidates
+            if self.single_use_exog_prefixes:
+                for prefix in self.single_use_exog_prefixes:
+                    if best_x.startswith(prefix):
+                        all_model_terms_dict = {
+                            k: v
+                            for k, v in all_model_terms_dict.items()
+                            if not k.startswith(prefix)
+                        }
+
+        self._fit = self._list_of_fits[-1]
+
+    def _prune(self, fit: fm.ols, p_max: float) -> fm.ols:
+        """If the fit contains statistically insignificant parameters, remove them.
+        Returns a pruned fit where all parameters have p-values of the t-statistic below p_max
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        fit: fm.ols fit object
+            Can contain insignificant parameters
+        p_max : float
+            Maximum allowed probability of the t-statistic
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        fit: fm.ols fit object
+            Won't contain any insignificant parameters
+
+        """
+
+        def remove_from_model_desc(x: str, model_desc: ModelDesc) -> ModelDesc:
+            """Return a model_desc without x"""
+            rhs_termlist = []
+            for t in model_desc.rhs_termlist:
+                if not t.factors:
+                    # intercept, add anyway
+                    rhs_termlist.append(t)
+                elif x != t.factors[0]._varname:  # pylint: disable=protected-access
+                    # this is not the term with x
+                    rhs_termlist.append(t)
+
+            md = ModelDesc(model_desc.lhs_termlist, rhs_termlist)
+            return md
+
+        corrected_model_desc = ModelDesc(
+            fit.model.formula.lhs_termlist[:],
+            fit.model.formula.rhs_termlist[:],
+        )
+        pars_to_prune = fit.pvalues.where(fit.pvalues > p_max).dropna().index.tolist()
+        try:
+            pars_to_prune.remove("Intercept")
+        except ValueError:
+            pass
+        while pars_to_prune:
+            corrected_model_desc = remove_from_model_desc(
+                pars_to_prune[0],
+                corrected_model_desc,
+            )
+            fit = fm.ols(corrected_model_desc, data=self.data).fit()
+            pars_to_prune = fit.pvalues.where(fit.pvalues > p_max).dropna().index.tolist()
+            try:
+                pars_to_prune.remove("Intercept")
+            except ValueError:
+                pass
+        return fit
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def find_best_rsquared(list_of_fits: list[fm.ols]) -> fm.ols:
+        """Return the best fit, based on rsquared"""
+        res = sorted(list_of_fits, key=lambda x: x.rsquared)
+        return res[-1]
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def find_best_akaike(list_of_fits: list[fm.ols]) -> fm.ols:
+        """Return the best fit, based on Akaike information criterion"""
+        res = sorted(list_of_fits, key=lambda x: x.aic)
+        return res[0]
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def find_best_bic(list_of_fits: list[fm.ols]) -> fm.ols:
+        """Return the best fit, based on Akaike information criterion"""
+        res = sorted(list_of_fits, key=lambda x: x.bic)
+        return res[0]
+
+    def _predict(self, fit: fm.ols, data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """Return a df with predictions and confidence interval
+
+        Notes
+        -----
+        The df will contain the following columns:
+        - 'predicted': the model output
+        - 'interval_u', 'interval_l': upper and lower confidence bounds.
+        The result will depend on the following attributes of self:
+        confint : float (default=0.95)
+            Confidence level for two-sided hypothesis
+        allow_negative_predictions : bool (default=True)
+            If False, correct negative predictions to zero
+            (typically for energy consumption predictions)
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        fit : Statsmodels fit
+        data : pandas DataFrame or None (default)
+            If None, use self.data
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        result : pandas DataFrame
+            Copy of df with additional columns 'predicted', 'interval_u' and 'interval_l'
+        """
+        # Add model results to data as column 'predictions'
+        result = data.copy()
+        if "Intercept" in fit.model.exog_names:
+            result["Intercept"] = 1.0
+        result["predicted"] = fit.predict(result)
+        if not self.allow_negative_predictions:
+            result.loc[result["predicted"] < 0, "predicted"] = 0
+
+        _prstd, interval_l, interval_u = wls_prediction_std(
+            fit,
+            result[fit.model.exog_names],
+            alpha=1 - self.confint,
+        )
+        result["interval_l"] = interval_l
+        result["interval_u"] = interval_u
+
+        if "Intercept" in result:
+            result.drop(labels=["Intercept"], axis=1, inplace=True)
+
+        return result
+
+    def add_prediction(self):
+        """Add predictions and confidence interval to self.df
+        self.df will contain the following columns:
+        - 'predicted': the model output
+        - 'interval_u', 'interval_l': upper and lower confidence bounds.
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        None, but the result depends on the following attributes of self:
+        confint : float (default=0.95)
+            Confidence level for two-sided hypothesis
+        allow_negative_predictions : bool (default=True)
+            If False, correct negative predictions to zero
+            (typically for energy consumption predictions)
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        Nothing, adds columns to self.df
+        """
+        self.data = self._predict(fit=self.fit, data=self.data)
+
+    def validate(
+        self, min_rsquared: float = 0.75, max_f_pvalue: float = 0.05, max_pvalues: float = 0.05
+    ) -> bool:
+        """Checks if the model is valid.
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+            bool: True if the model is valid, False otherwise.
+        """
+        if self.fit.rsquared_adj < min_rsquared:
+            return False
+
+        if self.fit.f_pvalue > max_f_pvalue:
+            return False
+
+        param_keys = self.fit.pvalues.keys().tolist()
+        param_keys.remove("Intercept")
+        for k in param_keys:
+            if self.fit.pvalues[k] > max_pvalues:
+                return False
+
+        return True

openenergyid-0.1.21.dist-info/METADATA

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+Metadata-Version: 2.4
+Name: openenergyid
+Version: 0.1.21
+Summary: Open Source Python library for energy analytics and simulations
+Project-URL: Homepage, https://energyid.eu
+Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/EnergieID/OpenEnergyID
+Project-URL: Bugs Tracker, https://github.com/EnergieID/OpenEnergyID/issues
+Author-email: Jan Pecinovsky <jan@energieid.be>, Max Helskens <max@energieid.be>
+Maintainer-email: Jan Pecinovsky <jan@energieid.be>
+License: MIT License
+        
+        Copyright (c) 2023 EnergieID cvba-so
+        
+        Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+        of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+        in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+        to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+        copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+        furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+        
+        The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+        copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+        
+        THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+        IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+        FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+        AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+        LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+        OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+        SOFTWARE.
+License-File: LICENSE
+Keywords: analytics,energy,simulation
+Classifier: Development Status :: 3 - Alpha
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Developers
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
+Classifier: License :: OSI Approved :: MIT License
+Classifier: Natural Language :: English
+Classifier: Operating System :: OS Independent
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
+Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering
+Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Mathematics
+Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Physics
+Classifier: Topic :: Software Development :: Libraries :: Python Modules
+Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
+
+# OpenEnergyID
+
+Open Source Python library for energy data analytics and simulations
+
+[*more info for developers*](DEVELOPERS.md)

openenergyid-0.1.21.dist-info/RECORD

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+openenergyid-0.1.21.dist-info/licenses/LICENSE,sha256=NgRdcNHwyXVCXZ8sJwoTp0DCowThJ9LWWl4xhbV1IUY,1074
+openenergyid-0.1.21.dist-info/RECORD,,

openenergyid-0.1.21.dist-info/WHEEL

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+Wheel-Version: 1.0
+Generator: hatchling 1.27.0
+Root-Is-Purelib: true
+Tag: py2-none-any
+Tag: py3-none-any

openenergyid-0.1.21.dist-info/licenses/LICENSE

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+MIT License
+
+Copyright (c) 2023 EnergieID cvba-so
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+SOFTWARE.