hkjc 0.3.6__py3-none-any.whl → 0.3.8__py3-none-any.whl

hkjc/__init__.py

@@ -5,15 +5,16 @@ This module re-exports commonly used symbols from the submodules.
 from importlib.metadata import version as _version
 
 __all__ = ["live_odds", "qpbanker",
-		    "generate_all_qp_trades", "generate_pareto_qp_trades",
-			"speedpro_energy", "speedmap","harveille_model"]
+           "generate_all_qp_trades", "generate_all_pla_trades", "pareto_filter",
+                        "speedpro_energy", "speedmap", "harveille_model"]
 
 try:
-	__version__ = _version(__name__)
+    __version__ = _version(__name__)
 except Exception:  # pragma: no cover - best-effort version resolution
-	__version__ = "0.0.0"
+    __version__ = "0.0.0"
 
 from .live_odds import live_odds
-from .processing import generate_all_qp_trades, generate_pareto_qp_trades
+from .processing import generate_all_qp_trades, generate_all_pla_trades
+from .optimization import pareto_filter
 from .speedpro import speedmap, speedpro_energy
-from . import harville_model
+from . import harville_model

hkjc/live_odds.py

@@ -3,8 +3,6 @@
 from __future__ import annotations
 from typing import Tuple, List
 
-from .harville_model import fit_harville_to_odds
-
 import requests
 from cachetools.func import ttl_cache
 import numpy as np
@@ -87,7 +85,7 @@ def _fetch_live_odds(date: str, venue_code: str, race_number: int, odds_type: Tu
     ]
 
 
-def live_odds(date: str, venue_code: str, race_number: int, odds_type: List[str] = ['PLA', 'QPL'], fit_harville=False) -> dict:
+def live_odds(date: str, venue_code: str, race_number: int, odds_type: List[str] = ['PLA', 'QPL']) -> dict:
     """Fetch live odds as numpy arrays.
 
     Args:
@@ -112,7 +110,7 @@ def live_odds(date: str, venue_code: str, race_number: int, odds_type: List[str]
     except Exception:
         raise ValueError("Date must be in 'YYYY-MM-DD' format")
 
-    mandatory_types = ['WIN','PLA','QIN','QPL'] if fit_harville else ['PLA']
+    mandatory_types = ['PLA']
 
     data = _fetch_live_odds(date, venue_code, race_number,
                             odds_type=tuple(set(mandatory_types+odds_type)))
@@ -129,24 +127,11 @@ def live_odds(date: str, venue_code: str, race_number: int, odds_type: List[str]
     for entry in data:
         if entry["Type"] in ["QIN", "QPL"]:
             horse_ids = list(map(int, entry["HorseID"].split(",")))
-            odds[entry["Type"]][horse_ids[0] - 1, horse_ids[1] - 1] = entry["Odds"]
-            odds[entry["Type"]][horse_ids[1] - 1, horse_ids[0] - 1] = entry["Odds"]
-        elif entry["Type"] in ["PLA","WIN"]:
+            odds[entry["Type"]][horse_ids[0] - 1,
+                                horse_ids[1] - 1] = entry["Odds"]
+            odds[entry["Type"]][horse_ids[1] - 1,
+                                horse_ids[0] - 1] = entry["Odds"]
+        elif entry["Type"] in ["PLA", "WIN"]:
             odds[entry["Type"]][int(entry["HorseID"]) - 1] = entry["Odds"]
 
-    if fit_harville:
-        fit_res = fit_harville_to_odds(
-            W_obs=odds['WIN'],
-            Qin_obs=odds['QIN'],
-            Q_obs=odds['QPL'],
-            b_obs=odds['PLA']
-        )
-        if fit_res['success']:
-            odds['PLA'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['b_fitted'], posinf=0)
-            odds['QPL'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['Q_fitted'], posinf=0)
-            odds['WIN'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['W_fitted'], posinf=0)
-            odds['QIN'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['Qin_fitted'], posinf=0)
-        else:
-            print(f"[WARNING] Harville model fitting failed: {fit_res.get('message','')}")
-
     return {t: odds[t] for t in odds_type}

hkjc/optimization.py

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import polars as pl
 from typing import List, Union
 
-def _pareto_filter(
+def pareto_filter(
     df: pl.DataFrame, 
     groupby: List[str], 
     by: List[str], 

hkjc/processing.py

@@ -4,8 +4,8 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 from typing import Tuple, List
 
 from .live_odds import live_odds
-from .qpbanker import win_probability, expected_value, average_odds
-from .optimization import _pareto_filter
+from .strategy import qpbanker, place_only
+from .harville_model import fit_harville_to_odds
 
 import polars as pl
 import numpy as np
@@ -17,16 +17,17 @@ def _all_subsets(lst): return [list(x) for r in range(
     1, len(lst)+1) for x in combinations(lst, r)]  # list subsets of a list
 
 
-def _process_single_qp_trade(banker: int, covered: List[int], odds_pla: List[float], odds_qpl: List[float], rebate: float) -> Tuple[int, List, float, float]:
+def _process_single_qp_trade(banker: int, covered: List[int], pla_odds: np.ndarray, qpl_odds: np.ndarray, rebate: float) -> Tuple[int, List, float, float, float]:
     """Process a single qp trade.
     """
-    win_prob = win_probability(odds_pla, banker, covered)
-    exp_value = expected_value(odds_pla, odds_qpl, banker, covered, rebate)
-    ave_odds = average_odds(odds_qpl, banker, covered)
+    win_prob = qpbanker.win_probability(pla_odds, banker, covered)
+    exp_value = qpbanker.expected_value(
+        pla_odds, qpl_odds, banker, covered, rebate)
+    ave_odds = qpbanker.average_odds(qpl_odds, banker, covered)
     return (banker, covered, win_prob, exp_value, ave_odds)
 
 
-def generate_all_qp_trades(date: str, venue_code: str, race_number: int, rebate: float = 0.12, fit_harville=False) -> pl.DataFrame:
+def generate_all_qp_trades(date: str, venue_code: str, race_number: int, rebate: float = 0.12, fit_harville: bool = False) -> pl.DataFrame:
     """Generate all possible qp tickets for the specified race.
 
     Args:
@@ -41,10 +42,26 @@ def generate_all_qp_trades(date: str, venue_code: str, race_number: int, rebate:
     """
 
     odds = live_odds(date, venue_code, race_number,
-                     odds_type=['PLA', 'QPL'], fit_harville=fit_harville)
+                     odds_type=['PLA', 'QPL'] + (['WIN', 'QIN'] if fit_harville else []))
     N = len(odds['PLA'])
     candidates = np.arange(1, N+1)
 
+    if fit_harville:
+        fit_res = fit_harville_to_odds(
+            W_obs=odds['WIN'],
+            Qin_obs=odds['QIN'],
+            Q_obs=odds['QPL'],
+            b_obs=odds['PLA']
+        )
+        if fit_res['success']:
+            odds['PLA'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['b_fitted'], posinf=0)
+            odds['QPL'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['Q_fitted'], posinf=0)
+            odds['WIN'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['W_fitted'], posinf=0)
+            odds['QIN'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['Qin_fitted'], posinf=0)
+        else:
+            print(
+                f"[WARNING] Harville model fitting failed: {fit_res.get('message','')}")
+
     results = [_process_single_qp_trade(banker, covered, odds['PLA'], odds['QPL'], rebate)
                for banker in tqdm(candidates, desc="Processing bankers")
                for covered in _all_subsets(candidates[candidates != banker])]
@@ -55,21 +72,53 @@ def generate_all_qp_trades(date: str, venue_code: str, race_number: int, rebate:
     return df
 
 
-def generate_pareto_qp_trades(date: str, venue_code: str, race_number: int, rebate: float = 0.12, groupby: List[str] = [], fit_harville=False) -> pl.DataFrame:
-    """Generate qp tickets that are Pareto optimal for the specified race.
+def _process_single_pla_trade(covered: List[int], pla_odds: np.ndarray, p_matrix: np.ndarray, rebate: float = 0.1) -> Tuple[List, float, float, float]:
+    """Process a single place-only trade.
+    """
+    win_prob = place_only.win_probability(p_matrix, covered)
+    exp_value = place_only.expected_value(pla_odds, p_matrix, covered, rebate)
+    ave_odds = place_only.average_odds(pla_odds, covered)
+    return (covered, win_prob, exp_value, ave_odds)
+
+
+def generate_all_pla_trades(date: str, venue_code: str, race_number: int, rebate: float = 0.1) -> pl.DataFrame:
+    """Generate all possible place-only tickets for the specified race.
 
     Args:
         date (str): Date in 'YYYY-MM-DD' format.
         venue_code (str): Venue code, e.g., 'ST' for Shatin, 'HV' for Happy Valley.
         race_number (int): Race number.
         rebate (float, optional): The rebate percentage. Defaults to 0.12.
-        groupby (List[str], optional): Columns to group by when determining Pareto optimality. Defaults to [] (global optimal).
-        harville_fit (bool, optional): Whether to fit the odds using Harville model. Defaults to False.
 
     Returns:
-        pl.DataFrame: DataFrame with all Pareto trades and their metrics.
+        pl.DataFrame: DataFrame with all possible trades and their metrics.
     """
-    df = generate_all_qp_trades(date, venue_code, race_number, rebate, harville_fit=fit_harville)
-    pareto_df = _pareto_filter(df, groupby=groupby, by=[
-                               'WinProb', 'ExpValue'], maximize=True)
-    return pareto_df
+
+    odds = live_odds(date, venue_code, race_number,
+                     odds_type=['PLA', 'QPL', 'WIN', 'QIN'])
+    N = len(odds['PLA'])
+    candidates = np.arange(1, N+1)
+
+    fit_res = fit_harville_to_odds(
+        W_obs=odds['WIN'],
+        Qin_obs=odds['QIN'],
+        Q_obs=odds['QPL'],
+        b_obs=odds['PLA']
+    )
+    if fit_res['success']:
+        odds['PLA'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['b_fitted'], posinf=0)
+        odds['QPL'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['Q_fitted'], posinf=0)
+        odds['WIN'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['W_fitted'], posinf=0)
+        odds['QIN'] = np.nan_to_num(1/fit_res['Qin_fitted'], posinf=0)
+    else:
+        raise RuntimeError(
+            f"[ERROR] Harville model fitting failed: {fit_res.get('message','')}")
+    p_matrix = fit_res['P_fitted']
+
+    results = [_process_single_pla_trade(covered, odds['PLA'], p_matrix, rebate)
+               for covered in _all_subsets(candidates)]
+
+    df = (pl.DataFrame(results, schema=['Covered', 'WinProb', 'ExpValue', 'AvgOdds'])
+          .with_columns(pl.col('Covered').list.len().alias('NumCovered')))
+
+    return df

hkjc/speedpro.py

@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ def speedpro_energy(race_date: str) -> pl.DataFrame:
 
     df = (df.with_columns(pl.col('RunnerNumber').str.to_integer())
           .with_columns(pl.col('SpeedPRO_Energy_Difference').str.to_integer())
-          .select(['RaceNumber', 'RunnerNumber', 'HorseName', 'FitnessRatings','SpeedPRO_Energy_Difference']))
+          .select(['RaceNo', 'RunnerNumber', 'HorseName', 'FitnessRatings','SpeedPRO_Energy_Difference']))
 
     return df
 

hkjc/strategy/place_only.py

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+"""Functions to perform probability and expectation calculations for the place-only strategy.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import List
+import numpy as np
+
+
+def win_probability(p_matrix: np.ndarray, covered: List[int]) -> float:
+    """Calculate the probability of winning at least one ticket in the place-only strategy.
+
+    Args:
+        p_matrix (np.ndarray): An array of place probabilities for the horses (0-indexed). p_ij is the probability of horse i placing in position j.
+        covered (List[int]): A list of horse numbers in the cover set (1-indexed).
+
+    Returns:
+        float: probability
+    """
+    
+    win_prob = 1-np.prod(1-np.sum(p_matrix[covered, :3], axis=1))
+    return win_prob
+
+
+def expected_value(pla_odds: np.ndarray, p_matrix: np.ndarray, covered: List[int], rebate: float = 0.10) -> float:
+    """Calculate the expected value (per dollar) of the place-only strategy using constant stake.
+
+    Args:
+        pla_odds (np.ndarray): An array of place odds for the horses (0-indexed).
+        p_matrix (np.ndarray): An array of place probabilities for the horses (0-indexed). p_ij is the probability of horse i placing in position j.
+        covered (List[int]): A list of horse numbers in the cover set (1-indexed).
+        rebate (float, optional): The rebate percentage. Defaults to 0.10.
+    
+    Returns:
+            float: expected value per dollar staked
+    """
+    true_prob = np.sum(p_matrix[:, :3], axis=1)
+    C = len(covered)
+    ev = np.sum((true_prob*(pla_odds-rebate))[covered])/C - (1-rebate)
+    return ev
+
+def average_odds(pla_odds: np.ndarray, covered: List[int]) -> float:
+    """Calculate the (harmonic) average odds across the covered set.
+
+    Args:
+        pla_odds (np.ndarray): An array of place odds for the horses (0-indexed).
+        covered (List[int]): A list of horse numbers in the cover set (1-indexed).
+        
+    Returns:
+            float: average odds
+    """
+    C = len(covered)
+    avg_odds = C / sum([1/pla_odds[c-1] for c in covered])
+    return avg_odds

hkjc/{qpbanker.py → strategy/qpbanker.py}

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 from typing import List
 import numpy as np
 
+
 def _pla_odds_partition(pla_odds: np.ndarray, banker: int, covered: List[int]) -> tuple[float, float, float]:
     """Partition the place odds into banker, covered and eliminated sets.
 

{hkjc-0.3.6.dist-info → hkjc-0.3.8.dist-info}/METADATA

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.4
 Name: hkjc
-Version: 0.3.6
+Version: 0.3.8
 Summary: Library for scrapping HKJC data and perform basic analysis
 Requires-Python: >=3.11
 Requires-Dist: cachetools>=6.2.0

hkjc-0.3.8.dist-info/RECORD

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+hkjc/__init__.py,sha256=jgA3OiBaRifvNd5b5qR7VqdBTFfY1t9zQwhiQYh-Q4o,714
+hkjc/harville_model.py,sha256=MZjPLS-1nbEhp1d4Syuq13DtraKnd7TlNqBmOOCwxgc,15976
+hkjc/historical.py,sha256=wKTJi--0Mx_x0vO0ysOGD37oM8453woQK-cLzPOLgiQ,336
+hkjc/live_odds.py,sha256=HQZCvEMUG4YNVj2IaFshU5HD0j5mfBSSDhksNla-ERk,4768
+hkjc/optimization.py,sha256=p_NwPfl8qrcg2XWfHX4D7_jSRT819oVcctK-4VuvtME,3783
+hkjc/processing.py,sha256=MCP42v-DgQBVUx7g2yhlfbZusj7Q60N2sqzFBdIUb94,5028
+hkjc/py.typed,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TImW-5JCeuQeRkm5NMpJWZG3hSuFU,0
+hkjc/speedpro.py,sha256=5KFcVwxcblSaP8_G6W15h1Nkt-yJHJ7gVKwo3kpumS4,1964
+hkjc/strategy/place_only.py,sha256=Dfzqr1PmWd9xHpylXO0Zlww9xMoIFPQ_gMHvRunw_1Q,2049
+hkjc/strategy/qpbanker.py,sha256=MQxjwsfhllKZroKS8w8Q3bi3HMjGc1DAyBIjNZAp3yQ,4805
+hkjc-0.3.8.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=VNe1lDBAfidKWBTMaBd5al2srXFCLWBOegOzh49xfE0,413
+hkjc-0.3.8.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=qtCwoSJWgHk21S1Kb4ihdzI2rlJ1ZKaIurTj_ngOhyQ,87
+hkjc-0.3.8.dist-info/RECORD,,

hkjc-0.3.6.dist-info/RECORD

@@ -1,12 +0,0 @@
-hkjc/__init__.py,sha256=xKkhk53z9aGyGkiwQ_RNc7Qa82lp1Oinyx83m_pBv_E,627
-hkjc/harville_model.py,sha256=MZjPLS-1nbEhp1d4Syuq13DtraKnd7TlNqBmOOCwxgc,15976
-hkjc/historical.py,sha256=wKTJi--0Mx_x0vO0ysOGD37oM8453woQK-cLzPOLgiQ,336
-hkjc/live_odds.py,sha256=m3sO5AIam73Qr2my8aUW4slE7G8xZk6tnMDRPAWS_bs,5447
-hkjc/optimization.py,sha256=OArQ3w9bwcIV_lTNuE5za6AROoa90xk_gwAoGwQ-8RE,3784
-hkjc/processing.py,sha256=1RZi-xPMV_rcfmfDHmd-MVRKL9fDd6XKolD5dzvxaiQ,3307
-hkjc/py.typed,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TImW-5JCeuQeRkm5NMpJWZG3hSuFU,0
-hkjc/qpbanker.py,sha256=vhvYb5_nGrKgYgre9gGF6tgswovca5C9pZVOPGxEP1Q,4804
-hkjc/speedpro.py,sha256=Tb8YqWnD7nnRv0I5onnWxGtsRi3bQZZumWnZncT2n4M,1968
-hkjc-0.3.6.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=I7hzvISiv67h4oCrJY0OpuywtRfk_WKvnBBHNbAQmlE,413
-hkjc-0.3.6.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=qtCwoSJWgHk21S1Kb4ihdzI2rlJ1ZKaIurTj_ngOhyQ,87
-hkjc-0.3.6.dist-info/RECORD,,