gomd 2.1.0__py3-none-any.whl

gomd/maritime.py

@@ -0,0 +1,952 @@
+"""
+gomd.maritime — Maritime Decarbonization, IMO CII, EU ETS / FuelEU Maritime,
+Poseidon Principles Ship Finance Alignment, and Paris MoU PSC Risk Models
+============================================================================
+Implements regulatory and econometric formulas for international shipping:
+  1. IMO Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) Attained AER, Required CII, and A-E Rating
+     (Resolutions MEPC.336(76), MEPC.337(76), MEPC.338(76), MEPC.354(78))
+  2. EU ETS Maritime Directive (2023/959) & FuelEU Maritime (2023/1805) Carbon Cost
+  3. Poseidon Principles Climate Alignment Delta (Delta_PP %) & Green Loan Pricing
+  4. Paris MoU / Med MoU New Inspection Regime (NIR) Ship Risk Profile & Detention Probability
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import math
+from typing import Any, Dict, Optional, Union
+
+# Official IMO MEPC.364(79) / EEDI Carbon Conversion Factors C_F (t CO2 / t fuel)
+IMO_CF_FACTORS: Dict[str, float] = {
+    "hfo": 3.114,
+    "vlsfo": 3.151,
+    "lfo": 3.151,
+    "mdo": 3.206,
+    "mgo": 3.206,
+    "lng": 2.750,
+    "lpg_propane": 3.000,
+    "lpg_butane": 3.030,
+    "methanol": 1.375,
+    "ethanol": 1.913,
+    "bio_methanol": 0.275,
+    "e_ammonia": 0.000,
+    "e_hydrogen": 0.000,
+}
+
+# IMO MEPC.337(76) Table 1 Reference Line Parameters (a, c) & MEPC.354(78) dd vectors (d1..d4)
+IMO_CII_SHIP_PARAMS: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {
+    "bulk_carrier": {"a": 4745.0, "c": 0.622, "dd": (0.86, 0.94, 1.06, 1.18)},
+    "tanker": {"a": 5247.0, "c": 0.610, "dd": (0.82, 0.93, 1.08, 1.28)},
+    "container": {"a": 1984.0, "c": 0.489, "dd": (0.83, 0.94, 1.07, 1.19)},
+    "general_cargo": {"a": 31948.0, "c": 0.792, "dd": (0.83, 0.94, 1.06, 1.19)},
+    "lng_carrier": {"a": 14479E7, "c": 2.673, "dd": (0.89, 0.98, 1.06, 1.13)},
+    "ro_ro_cargo": {"a": 5739.0, "c": 0.631, "dd": (0.86, 0.94, 1.06, 1.16)},
+    "cruise_passenger": {"a": 930.0, "c": 0.383, "dd": (0.87, 0.95, 1.06, 1.16)},
+}
+
+# IMO MEPC.338(76) Annual Reduction Factors Z (%) relative to 2019 reference line
+IMO_CII_REDUCTION_Z: Dict[int, float] = {
+    2019: 0.0,
+    2020: 1.0,
+    2021: 2.0,
+    2022: 3.0,
+    2023: 5.0,
+    2024: 7.0,
+    2025: 9.0,
+    2026: 11.0,
+    2027: 13.5,
+    2028: 16.0,
+    2029: 18.5,
+    2030: 21.5,
+}
+
+
+def calculate_imo_cii(
+    fuel_consumption_tonnes: Union[float, Dict[str, float]],
+    dwt_or_gt: float,
+    distance_nm: float,
+    ship_type: str = "bulk_carrier",
+    fuel_type: str = "vlsfo",
+    year: int = 2026,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Compute the IMO Attained Annual Efficiency Ratio (AER), Required CII,
+    and A/B/C/D/E Operational Carbon Intensity Rating (MEPC.336(76)–MEPC.354(78)).
+
+    Parameters
+    ----------
+    fuel_consumption_tonnes : float or dict[str, float]
+        Either total fuel mass in metric tonnes (using `fuel_type`) or a dictionary
+        mapping fuel names to metric tonnes, e.g. `{"vlsfo": 4200, "mdo": 350}`.
+    dwt_or_gt : float
+        Vessel Deadweight Tonnage (DWT) or Gross Tonnage (for cruise/ro-ro passenger).
+    distance_nm : float
+        Total distance sailed in nautical miles over the reporting period.
+    ship_type : str, default "bulk_carrier"
+        One of `'bulk_carrier'`, `'tanker'`, `'container'`, `'general_cargo'`,
+        `'lng_carrier'`, `'ro_ro_cargo'`, `'cruise_passenger'`.
+    fuel_type : str, default "vlsfo"
+        Fuel type when `fuel_consumption_tonnes` is a single float.
+    year : int, default 2026
+        Reporting calendar year (2019–2030).
+    """
+    if isinstance(fuel_consumption_tonnes, dict):
+        co2_tonnes = 0.0
+        for f_name, f_mass in fuel_consumption_tonnes.items():
+            cf = IMO_CF_FACTORS.get(f_name.strip().lower(), 3.151)
+            co2_tonnes += float(f_mass) * cf
+    else:
+        cf = IMO_CF_FACTORS.get(fuel_type.strip().lower(), 3.151)
+        co2_tonnes = float(fuel_consumption_tonnes) * cf
+
+    capacity = max(float(dwt_or_gt), 1.0)
+    dist = max(float(distance_nm), 1.0)
+
+    # Attained AER in g CO2 / (dwt * nm)
+    attained_aer = (co2_tonnes * 1e6) / (capacity * dist)
+
+    st_key = ship_type.strip().lower()
+    params = IMO_CII_SHIP_PARAMS.get(st_key, IMO_CII_SHIP_PARAMS["bulk_carrier"])
+    # Cap DWT for bulk carrier >= 279,000 per MEPC.337(76)
+    ref_cap = min(capacity, 279000.0) if st_key == "bulk_carrier" else capacity
+    cii_ref_2019 = params["a"] * (ref_cap ** (-params["c"]))
+
+    z_pct = IMO_CII_REDUCTION_Z.get(int(year), 11.0 if year <= 2026 else 21.5)
+    required_cii = cii_ref_2019 * (1.0 - z_pct / 100.0)
+
+    d1, d2, d3, d4 = params["dd"]
+    ratio = attained_aer / required_cii
+    if ratio <= d1:
+        rating = "A"
+    elif ratio <= d2:
+        rating = "B"
+    elif ratio <= d3:
+        rating = "C"
+    elif ratio <= d4:
+        rating = "D"
+    else:
+        rating = "E"
+
+    boundaries = {
+        "A_max": round(required_cii * d1, 4),
+        "B_max": round(required_cii * d2, 4),
+        "C_max": round(required_cii * d3, 4),
+        "D_max": round(required_cii * d4, 4),
+    }
+    return {
+        "ship_type": st_key,
+        "year": int(year),
+        "total_co2_tonnes": round(co2_tonnes, 2),
+        "attained_aer_g_dwt_nm": round(attained_aer, 4),
+        "attained_aer_g_co2_dwt_nm": round(attained_aer, 4),
+        "cii_ref_2019_g_dwt_nm": round(cii_ref_2019, 4),
+        "reduction_factor_z_pct": z_pct,
+        "required_cii_g_dwt_nm": round(required_cii, 4),
+        "attained_to_required_ratio": round(ratio, 4),
+        "cii_rating": rating,
+        "boundaries_g_dwt_nm": boundaries,
+        "rating_boundaries": boundaries,
+        "regulatory_action_required": rating in ("D", "E"),
+    }
+
+
+def calculate_eu_ets_exposure(
+    co2_tonnes: float,
+    ch4_tonnes: float = 0.0,
+    n2o_tonnes: float = 0.0,
+    voyage_scope: str = "intra_eu",
+    year: int = 2026,
+    eua_price_eur: float = 75.0,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Calculate maritime GHG emissions liability and EU Allowance (EUA) cost under
+    Directive (EU) 2023/959 (EU ETS extension to maritime transport).
+
+    Includes:
+      - IPCC AR5 GWP_100 conversion for Methane (CH4 = 28) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O = 265)
+        mandatory from 2026 onwards
+      - Geographical scope multiplier: 100% for intra-EU / EU port berth, 50% for extra-EU
+      - Phase-in surrender percentage: 40% (2024), 70% (2025), 100% (2026+)
+    """
+    scope_mult = 0.50 if voyage_scope.strip().lower() in ("extra_eu", "eu_extra", "50%", "half") else 1.00
+    phase_in = 0.40 if year == 2024 else (0.70 if year == 2025 else 1.00)
+
+    co2e_total = float(co2_tonnes) + (28.0 * float(ch4_tonnes) + 265.0 * float(n2o_tonnes) if year >= 2026 else 0.0)
+    scoped_co2e = co2e_total * scope_mult
+    surrender_euas = scoped_co2e * phase_in
+    cost_eur = surrender_euas * float(eua_price_eur)
+
+    return {
+        "year": int(year),
+        "voyage_scope": voyage_scope,
+        "scope_multiplier": scope_mult,
+        "phase_in_rate": phase_in,
+        "total_co2e_tonnes": round(co2e_total, 2),
+        "scoped_co2e_tonnes": round(scoped_co2e, 2),
+        "surrender_euas_required": round(surrender_euas, 2),
+        "surrender_allowances_eua": round(surrender_euas, 2),
+        "eua_price_eur": round(float(eua_price_eur), 2),
+        "estimated_ets_cost_eur": round(cost_eur, 2),
+        "estimated_cost_eur": round(cost_eur, 2),
+    }
+
+
+def poseidon_principles_alignment(
+    attained_aer: float,
+    required_trajectory_aer: float,
+    loan_outstanding_usd: float = 25_000_000.0,
+    base_margin_bps: float = 225.0,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Evaluate vessel or portfolio climate alignment under the Poseidon Principles
+    Technical Guidance and simulate Sustainability-Linked Loan (SLL) margin ratchets.
+
+    Formula:
+        Delta_PP (%) = ((AER_attained - AER_trajectory) / AER_trajectory) * 100
+    """
+    att = float(attained_aer)
+    traj = max(float(required_trajectory_aer), 1e-6)
+    delta_pct = ((att - traj) / traj) * 100.0
+    aligned = delta_pct <= 0.0
+
+    # Green Loan / SLL interest rate ratchet (-30 bps discount to +25 bps penalty)
+    if delta_pct <= -10.0:
+        bps_adj = -30.0
+    elif delta_pct <= 0.0:
+        bps_adj = -15.0
+    elif delta_pct <= 10.0:
+        bps_adj = 10.0
+    else:
+        bps_adj = 25.0
+
+    annual_interest_delta_usd = float(loan_outstanding_usd) * (bps_adj / 10000.0)
+
+    return {
+        "attained_aer": round(att, 4),
+        "trajectory_aer": round(traj, 4),
+        "alignment_delta_pct": round(delta_pct, 2),
+        "poseidon_aligned": aligned,
+        "sll_margin_adjustment_bps": bps_adj,
+        "effective_margin_bps": round(float(base_margin_bps) + bps_adj, 2),
+        "annual_interest_saving_or_penalty_usd": round(annual_interest_delta_usd, 2),
+    }
+
+
+def psc_detention_risk_score(
+    ship_age_years: float,
+    flag_tier: str = "white",
+    ro_performance: str = "high",
+    deficiencies_36m: int = 0,
+    detentions_36m: int = 0,
+    ship_type: str = "bulk_carrier",
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Compute Paris MoU / Mediterranean MoU New Inspection Regime (NIR) Ship Risk
+    Profile points, classification (HRS / SRS / LRS), and logistic detention probability.
+    """
+    points = 0
+    st = ship_type.strip().lower()
+    if st in ("bulk_carrier", "tanker", "chemical_tanker", "gas_carrier", "passenger", "cruise_passenger"):
+        points += 2
+    if float(ship_age_years) > 12.0:
+        points += 1
+
+    ft = flag_tier.strip().lower()
+    if ft == "black":
+        points += 2
+    elif ft == "grey":
+        points += 1
+
+    ro = ro_performance.strip().lower()
+    if ro in ("low", "very_low"):
+        points += 1
+
+    if int(detentions_36m) >= 2:
+        points += 2
+    elif int(detentions_36m) == 1:
+        points += 1
+
+    if int(deficiencies_36m) > 15:
+        points += 2
+    elif int(deficiencies_36m) > 5:
+        points += 1
+
+    if points >= 5:
+        profile = "HRS (High Risk Ship — Priority Inspection Window: 5-6 months)"
+    elif points == 0 and ft == "white" and ro == "high" and int(detentions_36m) == 0 and int(deficiencies_36m) <= 5:
+        profile = "LRS (Low Risk Ship — Extended Window: 24-36 months)"
+    else:
+        profile = "SRS (Standard Risk Ship — Window: 10-12 months)"
+
+    # Calibrated logistic detention probability
+    logit = -3.45 + 0.38 * points + 0.045 * max(float(ship_age_years) - 10.0, 0.0) + 0.12 * int(deficiencies_36m)
+    prob = 1.0 / (1.0 + math.exp(-logit))
+
+    return {
+        "nir_risk_points": points,
+        "ship_risk_profile": profile,
+        "estimated_detention_probability": round(prob, 4),
+        "estimated_detention_risk_pct": round(prob * 100.0, 2),
+    }
+
+
+# Regulation (EU) 2023/1805 FuelEU Maritime default Well-to-Wake (WtW) GHG intensities (gCO2e/MJ)
+# and Lower Calorific Values (LCV, MJ/g)
+FUELEU_WTW_PROFILES: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {
+    "HFO": {"lcv_mj_per_g": 0.0405, "wtw_gco2e_mj": 91.74, "is_rfnbo": False},
+    "VLSFO": {"lcv_mj_per_g": 0.0410, "wtw_gco2e_mj": 91.16, "is_rfnbo": False},
+    "MGO": {"lcv_mj_per_g": 0.0427, "wtw_gco2e_mj": 90.77, "is_rfnbo": False},
+    "LNG_OTTO": {"lcv_mj_per_g": 0.0491, "wtw_gco2e_mj": 76.20, "is_rfnbo": False},
+    "LNG_DIESEL": {"lcv_mj_per_g": 0.0491, "wtw_gco2e_mj": 69.50, "is_rfnbo": False},
+    "BIO_LNG": {"lcv_mj_per_g": 0.0491, "wtw_gco2e_mj": 24.50, "is_rfnbo": False},
+    "BIO_METHANOL": {"lcv_mj_per_g": 0.0199, "wtw_gco2e_mj": 14.80, "is_rfnbo": False},
+    "E_METHANOL": {"lcv_mj_per_g": 0.0199, "wtw_gco2e_mj": 6.40, "is_rfnbo": True},
+    "E_AMMONIA": {"lcv_mj_per_g": 0.0186, "wtw_gco2e_mj": 3.20, "is_rfnbo": True},
+    "E_HYDROGEN": {"lcv_mj_per_g": 0.1200, "wtw_gco2e_mj": 2.10, "is_rfnbo": True},
+}
+
+
+def calculate_fueleu_maritime(
+    fuel_mix_tonnes: Dict[str, float],
+    year: int = 2025,
+    voyage_scope_share: float = 1.0,
+    ops_shore_power_mj: float = 0.0,
+    **kwargs: Any,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Calculate Well-to-Wake (WtW) GHG Intensity (gCO2e/MJ), RFNBO 2x Multiplier Reward,
+    Compliance Balance (tCO2e), and Financial Penalty (EUR) under Regulation (EU) 2023/1805
+    (FuelEU Maritime, 2025-2050).
+
+    Post-2020 Regulatory & Scientific Reference:
+      - Regulation (EU) 2023/1805 of the European Parliament and of the Council of
+        13 September 2023 on the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels in maritime
+        transport (FuelEU Maritime).
+      - Baseline 2020 fleet WtW intensity: 91.16 gCO2e/MJ.
+      - Step-down reductions: 2025 (-2%), 2030 (-6%), 2035 (-14.5%), 2040 (-31%),
+        2045 (-62%), 2050 (-80%).
+      - Financial Penalty for deficit: EUR 2,400 per metric tonne of VLSFO-equivalent
+        energy (41,000 MJ/t).
+    """
+    baseline_2020 = 91.16
+    yr = int(year)
+    if yr < 2025:
+        red_pct = 0.0
+    elif yr < 2030:
+        red_pct = 2.0
+    elif yr < 2035:
+        red_pct = 6.0
+    elif yr < 2040:
+        red_pct = 14.5
+    elif yr < 2045:
+        red_pct = 31.0
+    elif yr < 2050:
+        red_pct = 62.0
+    else:
+        red_pct = 80.0
+
+    target_wtw = baseline_2020 * (1.0 - red_pct / 100.0)
+    scope = min(max(float(voyage_scope_share), 0.0), 1.0)
+
+    total_energy_mj = max(float(ops_shore_power_mj), 0.0) * scope
+    weighted_energy_denom_mj = max(float(ops_shore_power_mj), 0.0) * scope
+    total_wtw_grams = 0.0
+
+    for f_name, tonnes in fuel_mix_tonnes.items():
+        key = f_name.strip().upper()
+        prof = FUELEU_WTW_PROFILES.get(key, FUELEU_WTW_PROFILES["VLSFO"])
+        mass_g = max(float(tonnes), 0.0) * 1e6 * scope
+        e_mj = mass_g * float(prof["lcv_mj_per_g"])
+        total_energy_mj += e_mj
+        # RFNBO 2x reward multiplier in denominator between 2025 and 2033 per Annex I
+        rfnbo_mult = 2.0 if (prof["is_rfnbo"] and 2025 <= yr <= 2033) else 1.0
+        weighted_energy_denom_mj += e_mj * rfnbo_mult
+        total_wtw_grams += e_mj * float(prof["wtw_gco2e_mj"])
+
+    if weighted_energy_denom_mj <= 0.0:
+        raise ValueError("Total energy in fuel_mix_tonnes must be positive.")
+
+    attained_wtw = total_wtw_grams / weighted_energy_denom_mj
+    # Compliance Balance in grams CO2e: (GHGIE_target - GHGIE_actual) * Energy_MJ
+    cb_grams = (target_wtw - attained_wtw) * total_energy_mj
+    cb_tco2e = cb_grams / 1e6
+
+    # If Compliance Balance < 0, Penalty = |CB_grams| / (attained_wtw * 41,000) * 2,400 EUR
+    penalty_eur = 0.0
+    vlsfo_eq_deficit_tonnes = 0.0
+    if cb_grams < 0.0 and attained_wtw > 0.0:
+        vlsfo_eq_deficit_tonnes = abs(cb_grams) / (attained_wtw * 41000.0)
+        penalty_eur = vlsfo_eq_deficit_tonnes * 2400.0
+
+    status_str = "SURPLUS (Bankable / Poolable)" if cb_tco2e >= 0.0 else "DEFICIT (Penalty / Pooling Required)"
+    return {
+        "year": yr,
+        "baseline_2020_gco2e_mj": baseline_2020,
+        "reduction_target_pct": red_pct,
+        "target_wtw_gco2e_mj": round(target_wtw, 4),
+        "attained_wtw_gco2e_mj": round(attained_wtw, 4),
+        "attained_wtw_ghg_intensity_gco2e_mj": round(attained_wtw, 4),
+        "total_covered_energy_gj": round(total_energy_mj / 1000.0, 2),
+        "compliance_balance_tco2e": round(cb_tco2e, 2),
+        "status": status_str,
+        "compliance_status": status_str,
+        "vlsfo_equivalent_deficit_tonnes": round(vlsfo_eq_deficit_tonnes, 2),
+        "fueleu_penalty_eur": round(penalty_eur, 2),
+        "reference": "Regulation (EU) 2023/1805 (FuelEU Maritime Annex I & IV)",
+    }
+
+
+def imo_2023_strive_trajectory(
+    baseline_2008_aer: float,
+    current_aer: float,
+    annual_emissions_tco2e: float,
+    annual_efficiency_gain_pct: float = 1.8,
+    current_year: int = 2026,
+    shadow_carbon_levy_usd: float = 150.0,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Evaluate Vessel Alignment against the IMO 2023 Revised GHG Strategy (Resolution
+    MEPC.377(80), July 2023) Indicative Checkpoints (2030 & 2040 Base vs. Striving),
+    identify the Stranded-Asset Year, and compute Maritime Carbon Value-at-Risk (CVaR).
+
+    Post-2020 Regulatory & Scientific Reference:
+      - IMO Resolution MEPC.377(80) (Adopted 7 July 2023): 2023 IMO Strategy on
+        Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships.
+      - Checkpoints:
+          * 2030: >=40% carbon intensity reduction (vs 2008); 20% striving for 30% total GHG reduction.
+          * 2040: 70% striving for 80% total GHG reduction.
+          * 2050: Net-zero GHG emissions.
+    """
+    b08 = max(float(baseline_2008_aer), 1e-4)
+    cur = max(float(current_aer), 1e-4)
+    g_rate = float(annual_efficiency_gain_pct) / 100.0
+
+    # IMO MEPC.377(80) trajectory checkpoints relative to 2008 baseline
+    checkpoints = {
+        2030: {"base_aer": round(b08 * 0.60, 4), "strive_aer": round(b08 * 0.50, 4)},
+        2040: {"base_aer": round(b08 * 0.30, 4), "strive_aer": round(b08 * 0.20, 4)},
+        2050: {"base_aer": 0.0, "strive_aer": 0.0},
+    }
+
+    # Find stranded asset year where vessel's projected AER exceeds linear striving corridor
+    stranded_year = None
+    for yr in range(int(current_year), 2051):
+        years_ahead = yr - int(current_year)
+        proj_vessel_aer = cur * ((1.0 - g_rate) ** years_ahead)
+        # Linear interpolation of striving trajectory between 2026 (0.65*b08), 2030 (0.50*b08), 2040 (0.20*b08), 2050 (0.0)
+        if yr <= 2030:
+            allowed = b08 * (0.65 - 0.15 * ((yr - 2025) / 5.0))
+        elif yr <= 2040:
+            allowed = b08 * (0.50 - 0.30 * ((yr - 2030) / 10.0))
+        else:
+            allowed = b08 * max(0.0, 0.20 - 0.20 * ((yr - 2040) / 10.0))
+        if proj_vessel_aer > allowed and stranded_year is None:
+            stranded_year = yr
+
+    # 10-year discounted Carbon Value-at-Risk under universal maritime GHG levy
+    em = max(float(annual_emissions_tco2e), 0.0)
+    levy = max(float(shadow_carbon_levy_usd), 0.0)
+    cvar_10yr_usd = sum(
+        (em * ((1.0 - g_rate) ** t) * levy) / ((1.04) ** t) for t in range(1, 11)
+    )
+
+    return {
+        "baseline_2008_aer": round(b08, 4),
+        "current_aer": round(cur, 4),
+        "reduction_vs_2008_pct": round((1.0 - cur / b08) * 100.0, 2),
+        "mepc80_checkpoints": checkpoints,
+        "stranded_asset_year_strive": stranded_year if stranded_year is not None else 2050,
+        "maritime_carbon_var_10yr_usd": round(cvar_10yr_usd, 2),
+        "reference": "IMO Resolution MEPC.377(80) (July 2023 Revised GHG Strategy)",
+    }
+
+
+def ais_speed_power_emissions(
+    mcr_kw: float,
+    design_speed_kn: float,
+    observed_speed_kn: float,
+    design_draft_m: float = 12.0,
+    observed_draft_m: float = 11.0,
+    voyage_hours: float = 240.0,
+    aux_power_kw: float = 650.0,
+    weather_fouling_margin: float = 1.12,
+    sfoc_g_kwh: float = 175.0,
+    cf_tco2_per_tfuel: float = 3.151,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Bottom-Up AIS Admiralty-Cube Propulsion Power, Fuel Consumption, Emissions &
+    Slow-Steaming Elasticity Model (IMO 4th GHG Study 2020 & STEAM3 Framework).
+
+    Formula:
+        P_main = 0.85 * MCR * (Draft_obs / Draft_des)^(2/3) * (V_obs / V_des)^3 * w_margin
+    """
+    v_des = max(float(design_speed_kn), 1.0)
+    v_obs = max(float(observed_speed_kn), 0.5)
+    d_ratio = (max(float(observed_draft_m), 1.0) / max(float(design_draft_m), 1.0)) ** (2.0 / 3.0)
+    v_ratio = (v_obs / v_des) ** 3.0
+
+    p_main_kw = 0.85 * float(mcr_kw) * d_ratio * v_ratio * float(weather_fouling_margin)
+    p_total_kw = p_main_kw + float(aux_power_kw)
+    hrs = max(float(voyage_hours), 0.1)
+    dist_nm = v_obs * hrs
+
+    fuel_tonnes = (p_total_kw * hrs * float(sfoc_g_kwh)) / 1e6
+    co2_tonnes = fuel_tonnes * float(cf_tco2_per_tfuel)
+
+    # Slow-steaming counterfactual: 10% speed reduction over same distance (time increases by 1/0.9)
+    v_slow = v_obs * 0.90
+    hrs_slow = dist_nm / v_slow
+    p_main_slow = p_main_kw * (0.90 ** 3.0)
+    fuel_slow = ((p_main_slow + float(aux_power_kw)) * hrs_slow * float(sfoc_g_kwh)) / 1e6
+    co2_saved_tonnes = max(co2_tonnes - fuel_slow * float(cf_tco2_per_tfuel), 0.0)
+    abate_pct = (co2_saved_tonnes / co2_tonnes) * 100.0 if co2_tonnes > 0 else 0.0
+
+    return {
+        "voyage_distance_nm": round(dist_nm, 2),
+        "main_engine_power_kw": round(p_main_kw, 2),
+        "total_power_kw": round(p_total_kw, 2),
+        "fuel_consumption_tonnes": round(fuel_tonnes, 3),
+        "co2_emissions_tonnes": round(co2_tonnes, 3),
+        "slow_steaming_10pct_co2_saved_tonnes": round(co2_saved_tonnes, 3),
+        "slow_steaming_10pct_abatement_pct": round(abate_pct, 2),
+        "reference": "IMO Fourth GHG Study (2020) & STEAM3 AIS Bottom-Up Model",
+    }
+
+
+def marine_insurance_actuarial_pricing(
+    hull_value_usd: float = 65_000_000.0,
+    gross_tonnage: float = 42_000.0,
+    cargo_value_usd: float = 28_000_000.0,
+    vessel_age_years: float = 8.0,
+    cii_rating: str = "B",
+    observed_aer: float = 4.65,
+    required_ppmi_aer: float = 5.10,
+    psc_detentions_3yr: int = 0,
+    war_risk_chokepoint_zone: bool = False,
+    green_dual_fuel: bool = False,
+    chokepoint_transits_yr: Optional[int] = None,
+    **kwargs: Any,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Actuarial Marine & Shipping Insurance Underwriting Model: Hull & Machinery (H&M),
+    International Group of P&I Clubs Mutual Call, Cargo CIF-FOB Risk, War-Risk Surcharge,
+    and Poseidon Principles for Marine Insurance (PPMI) Climate Alignment Pricing.
+
+    Post-2020 Scientific & Industry References:
+      - International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI, 2024/2025). IUMI Global Marine
+        Insurance Report: Hull, Cargo, Offshore Energy & Protection and Indemnity.
+      - Poseidon Principles for Marine Insurance (PPMI, 2021/2024). A Global Framework
+        for Assessing and Disclosing the Climate Alignment of Marine Insurance Portfolios.
+      - International Group of P&I Clubs (IG P&I, 2024). Pooling Agreement & Reinsurance
+        General Excess of Loss (GXL) Actuarial Structure.
+    """
+    hv = max(float(hull_value_usd), 100_000.0)
+    gt = max(float(gross_tonnage), 500.0)
+    cv = max(float(cargo_value_usd), 0.0)
+    age = max(int(vessel_age_years), 0)
+    rating = str(cii_rating).strip().upper() or "C"
+    if chokepoint_transits_yr is not None and int(chokepoint_transits_yr) > 0:
+        war_risk_chokepoint_zone = True
+
+    # 1. Base Hull & Machinery (H&M) rate (~0.42% of insured hull value, IUMI global benchmark)
+    base_hm_rate = 0.0042
+    age_mult = 1.0 + max(age - 5, 0) * 0.032 + max(age - 15, 0) * 0.045
+    cii_mult_map = {"A": 0.90, "B": 0.95, "C": 1.00, "D": 1.12, "E": 1.28}
+    cii_mult = cii_mult_map.get(rating, 1.00)
+    psc_mult = 1.0 + min(max(int(psc_detentions_3yr), 0), 5) * 0.18
+
+    # Poseidon Principles for Marine Insurance (PPMI) climate alignment delta (%)
+    req_aer = max(float(required_ppmi_aer), 0.1)
+    obs_aer = max(float(observed_aer), 0.0)
+    ppmi_delta_pct = ((obs_aer - req_aer) / req_aer) * 100.0
+
+    # Green underwriting discount / surcharge (up to -12.5% discount for PPMI-aligned dual-fuel vessels)
+    ppmi_mult = 1.0 + max(min(ppmi_delta_pct / 100.0 * 0.25, 0.20), -0.10)
+    if green_dual_fuel:
+        ppmi_mult *= 0.94
+
+    hm_premium_usd = hv * base_hm_rate * age_mult * cii_mult * psc_mult * ppmi_mult
+
+    # 2. International Group of P&I Clubs mutual call + GXL reinsurance ($3.85/GT baseline)
+    base_pi_per_gt = 3.85
+    pi_call_usd = gt * base_pi_per_gt * (0.95 if rating in ("A", "B") else (1.18 if rating == "E" else 1.0)) * psc_mult
+
+    # 3. Marine Cargo insurance (CIF-FOB merchandise protection, ~0.16% per voyage/annualized)
+    cargo_premium_usd = cv * 0.0016 * (0.94 if rating in ("A", "B") else 1.05)
+
+    # 4. War Risk / High-Risk Chokepoint (Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb / Black Sea) Additional Premium (AP)
+    war_risk_usd = (hv * 0.0035 + cv * 0.0012) if war_risk_chokepoint_zone else 0.0
+
+    total_premium_usd = hm_premium_usd + pi_call_usd + cargo_premium_usd + war_risk_usd
+    expected_loss_ratio_pct = min(max(58.5 * cii_mult * (1.0 + 0.08 * int(psc_detentions_3yr)), 38.0), 96.0)
+    combined_ratio_pct = expected_loss_ratio_pct + 24.5  # 24.5% acquisition & administrative expense ratio
+    solvency_ii_scr_var995_usd = (hv * 0.045 + gt * 18.0) * math.sqrt(psc_mult * cii_mult)
+    ppmi_adj_pct = (ppmi_mult - 1.0) * 100.0
+
+    return {
+        "hull_machinery_premium_usd": round(hm_premium_usd, 2),
+        "pi_club_mutual_call_usd": round(pi_call_usd, 2),
+        "marine_cargo_premium_usd": round(cargo_premium_usd, 2),
+        "war_risk_chokepoint_surcharge_usd": round(war_risk_usd, 2),
+        "total_annual_marine_insurance_usd": round(total_premium_usd, 2),
+        "total_annual_premium_usd": round(total_premium_usd, 2),
+        "ppmi_climate_alignment_delta_pct": round(ppmi_delta_pct, 2),
+        "ppmi_climate_alignment_adjustment_pct": round(ppmi_adj_pct, 2),
+        "ppmi_status": "ALIGNED (Green Underwriting Tier)" if ppmi_delta_pct <= 0.0 else "MISALIGNED (Transition Risk Surcharge)",
+        "expected_loss_ratio_pct": round(expected_loss_ratio_pct, 2),
+        "combined_ratio_pct": round(combined_ratio_pct, 2),
+        "solvency_ii_var995_capital_usd": round(solvency_ii_scr_var995_usd, 2),
+        "reference": "IUMI Global Marine Insurance Report (2025); Poseidon Principles for Marine Insurance (PPMI, 2024); IG P&I (2024)",
+    }
+
+
+def global_chokepoint_disruption_index(
+    baseline_transits_yr: float,
+    observed_transits_yr: float,
+    detour_distance_nm: float = 3500.0,
+    vessel_speed_knots: float = 14.5,
+    daily_fuel_tonnes: float = 42.0,
+    fuel_price_usd_t: float = 640.0,
+    eua_carbon_price_usd_t: float = 75.0,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Compute the Global Maritime Chokepoint Supply-Chain Disruption & Rerouting Cost
+    Index (Verschuur et al., Nature 2023; IMF PortWatch 2024; UNCTAD 2024) for major
+    chokepoints (Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Malacca, Hormuz, Bosporus, Dardanelles).
+    """
+    base_n = max(float(baseline_transits_yr), 1.0)
+    obs_n = max(float(observed_transits_yr), 0.0)
+    transit_drop_pct = max(0.0, ((base_n - obs_n) / base_n) * 100.0)
+    rerouted_vessels = max(0.0, base_n - obs_n)
+    extra_days_per_voyage = float(detour_distance_nm) / (max(float(vessel_speed_knots), 1.0) * 24.0)
+    extra_fuel_t_per_voyage = extra_days_per_voyage * float(daily_fuel_tonnes)
+    extra_co2_t_per_voyage = extra_fuel_t_per_voyage * 3.151
+    extra_cost_per_voyage_usd = (
+        extra_fuel_t_per_voyage * float(fuel_price_usd_t)
+        + extra_co2_t_per_voyage * float(eua_carbon_price_usd_t)
+    )
+    disruption_score = min(100.0, round(transit_drop_pct * 1.35 + extra_days_per_voyage * 2.2, 2))
+    return {
+        "transit_drop_pct": round(transit_drop_pct, 2),
+        "rerouted_vessels_count": round(rerouted_vessels, 1),
+        "extra_sea_days_per_voyage": round(extra_days_per_voyage, 2),
+        "extra_fuel_tonnes_per_voyage": round(extra_fuel_t_per_voyage, 2),
+        "extra_co2_tonnes_per_voyage": round(extra_co2_t_per_voyage, 2),
+        "extra_voyage_cost_usd": round(extra_cost_per_voyage_usd, 2),
+        "aggregate_rerouting_co2_mt": round((rerouted_vessels * extra_co2_t_per_voyage) / 1e6, 4),
+        "disruption_severity_index_0_100": disruption_score,
+        "reference": "Verschuur et al. (2023, Nature); IMF PortWatch (2024); UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport (2024)",
+    }
+
+
+def kunming_montreal_30x30_gap(
+    current_mpa_pct: float,
+    eez_area_km2: float,
+    current_year: int = 2025,
+    target_year: int = 2030,
+    target_pct: float = 30.0,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Evaluate national or global ocean basin progress toward the CBD Kunming-Montreal
+    Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) Target 3 ('30x30' by 2030) and UN BBNJ High-Seas
+    Treaty (Sala et al., Nature 2021; UNEP-WCMC Protected Planet Report 2024).
+    """
+    cur_pct = max(0.0, min(100.0, float(current_mpa_pct)))
+    area = max(0.0, float(eez_area_km2))
+    tgt = max(0.1, min(100.0, float(target_pct)))
+    yrs_left = max(1, int(target_year) - int(current_year))
+    protected_km2 = area * (cur_pct / 100.0)
+    target_km2 = area * (tgt / 100.0)
+    gap_pct = max(0.0, tgt - cur_pct)
+    gap_km2 = max(0.0, target_km2 - protected_km2)
+    req_cagr_pct = (((tgt / max(cur_pct, 0.05)) ** (1.0 / yrs_left)) - 1.0) * 100.0 if cur_pct < tgt else 0.0
+    return {
+        "current_mpa_pct": round(cur_pct, 2),
+        "target_30x30_pct": round(tgt, 2),
+        "mpa_gap_percentage_points": round(gap_pct, 2),
+        "protected_marine_area_km2": round(protected_km2, 1),
+        "additional_area_needed_km2": round(gap_km2, 1),
+        "required_annual_expansion_km2_yr": round(gap_km2 / yrs_left, 1),
+        "required_cagr_pct": round(req_cagr_pct, 2),
+        "status": "ACHIEVED (>=30% Protected)" if cur_pct >= tgt else "EXPANSION_REQUIRED",
+        "reference": "CBD Kunming-Montreal GBF Target 3 (2022); Sala et al. (2021, Nature 592); UNEP-WCMC WDPA (2024)",
+    }
+
+
+def arctic_route_navigability_index(
+    corridor: str = "CORR_NSR",
+    september_ice_extent_mkm2: float = 0.62,
+    baseline_2005_ice_extent_mkm2: float = 1.45,
+    polar_distance_nm: float = 7200.0,
+    suez_distance_nm: float = 11200.0,
+    vessel_ice_class: str = "PC6",
+    daily_fuel_tonnes: float = 45.0,
+    speed_suez_knots: float = 15.0,
+    speed_polar_knots: float = 12.5,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Compute the Arctic Polar Maritime Corridor Navigability, Distance/Fuel Saving &
+    IMO Polar Code Risk Index (Melia et al., Geophysical Research Letters 2016;
+    Stephenson et al., Nature Climate Change; Arctic Council PAME ASTD 2024; NSIDC).
+    """
+    ice_cur = max(0.01, float(september_ice_extent_mkm2))
+    ice_base = max(0.1, float(baseline_2005_ice_extent_mkm2))
+    d_pol = max(100.0, float(polar_distance_nm))
+    d_suez = max(100.0, float(suez_distance_nm))
+    v_suez = max(5.0, float(speed_suez_knots))
+    v_pol = max(4.0, float(speed_polar_knots))
+    f_day = max(1.0, float(daily_fuel_tonnes))
+
+    ice_retreat_fraction = max(0.0, min(1.0, 1.0 - (ice_cur / ice_base)))
+    distance_saving_pct = max(0.0, ((d_suez - d_pol) / d_suez) * 100.0)
+    days_suez = d_suez / (v_suez * 24.0)
+    days_polar = d_pol / (v_pol * 24.0)
+    days_saved = days_suez - days_polar
+    # Ice-resistance fuel penalty factor (+12% per day in polar waters)
+    fuel_suez_t = days_suez * f_day
+    fuel_polar_t = days_polar * f_day * 1.12
+    co2_saved_t = (fuel_suez_t - fuel_polar_t) * 3.151
+
+    ic = vessel_ice_class.strip().upper()
+    class_bonus = 1.0 if ic in ("PC1", "PC2", "PC3", "PC4", "PC5", "ARC7") else (0.85 if ic in ("PC6", "PC7", "ARC4", "1A") else 0.55)
+    navigability_score = min(100.0, (0.55 * ice_retreat_fraction * 100.0 + 0.45 * distance_saving_pct) * class_bonus)
+
+    return {
+        "corridor": str(corridor).upper(),
+        "vessel_ice_class": ic,
+        "september_ice_extent_mkm2": round(ice_cur, 3),
+        "ice_retreat_fraction_vs_2005": round(ice_retreat_fraction, 4),
+        "distance_saving_pct_vs_suez": round(distance_saving_pct, 2),
+        "transit_days_suez": round(days_suez, 2),
+        "transit_days_polar": round(days_polar, 2),
+        "sea_days_saved": round(days_saved, 2),
+        "net_co2_saved_tonnes": round(co2_saved_t, 2),
+        "polar_navigability_index_0_100": round(navigability_score, 2),
+        "reference": "Arctic Council PAME ASTD (2024); NSIDC Sea Ice Index v3; IMO Polar Code (MEPC 68/21)",
+    }
+
+
+def seaborne_trade_climate_coupling_index(
+    merchandise_trade_gdp_pct: float = 54.0,
+    export_volume_index_2015_100: float = 132.0,
+    transport_service_share_pct: float = 24.5,
+    hub_wind_max_kmh: float = 52.0,
+    renewable_electricity_share_pct: float = 42.0,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Compute the Global Seaborne Merchandise Trade Openness, ERA5 Port/Chokepoint
+    Climate Disruption & Green Transition Coupling Index (Verschuur et al., Nature
+    Communications 2023; Hersbach et al., Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2020; UNCTAD 2024;
+    WTO World Trade Report 2024).
+    """
+    trd_gdp = max(0.0, float(merchandise_trade_gdp_pct))
+    exp_vol = max(1.0, float(export_volume_index_2015_100))
+    trn_shr = max(0.0, min(100.0, float(transport_service_share_pct)))
+    wind_max = max(0.0, float(hub_wind_max_kmh))
+    ren_elc = max(0.0, min(100.0, float(renewable_electricity_share_pct)))
+
+    openness_score = min(100.0, (trd_gdp / 120.0) * 50.0 + (exp_vol / 200.0) * 30.0 + (trn_shr / 45.0) * 20.0)
+    # Beaufort >= 8 gale threshold (~62 km/h) increases port downtime & chokepoint queue risk
+    weather_disruption_pct = min(100.0, max(0.0, ((wind_max - 35.0) / 55.0) * 100.0))
+    green_port_readiness = min(100.0, ren_elc * 0.85 + 15.0)
+    net_resilience_index = max(0.0, min(100.0, 0.45 * openness_score + 0.35 * green_port_readiness - 0.20 * weather_disruption_pct))
+
+    return {
+        "merchandise_trade_gdp_pct": round(trd_gdp, 2),
+        "export_volume_index_2015_100": round(exp_vol, 2),
+        "transport_service_share_pct": round(trn_shr, 2),
+        "era5_hub_wind_max_kmh": round(wind_max, 2),
+        "renewable_electricity_share_pct": round(ren_elc, 2),
+        "seaborne_openness_score_0_100": round(openness_score, 2),
+        "era5_port_weather_disruption_risk_0_100": round(weather_disruption_pct, 2),
+        "green_shore_power_readiness_0_100": round(green_port_readiness, 2),
+        "trade_climate_resilience_index_0_100": round(net_resilience_index, 2),
+        "reference": "Verschuur et al. (2023, Nat. Commun. 14:1341); Hersbach et al. (2020, ERA5); UNCTAD (2024)",
+    }
+
+
+def fueleu_cii_ets_compliance_cost(
+    annual_fuel_tonnes: float = 11500.0,
+    wtw_ghg_intensity_gco2e_mj: float = 89.34,
+    target_wtw_gco2e_mj: float = 89.34,
+    eu_voyage_share_pct: float = 65.0,
+    eua_carbon_price_eur_t: float = 78.5,
+    attained_aer_gco2_dwt_nm: float = 4.65,
+    required_aer_gco2_dwt_nm: float = 4.50,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Compute integrated Maritime Regulatory Carbon Exposure combining Regulation (EU) 2023/1805
+    (FuelEU Maritime WtW GHG Intensity Deficit Penalty at 2,400 EUR/t VLSFOe = 58.5 EUR/GJ),
+    Directive (EU) 2023/959 (100% EU ETS Maritime Allowance Liability from 2026), and
+    IMO MARPOL Annex VI CII (AER Rating A–E) across the 15 global fleet segments.
+    """
+    fuel_t = max(1.0, float(annual_fuel_tonnes))
+    wtw_act = max(0.0, float(wtw_ghg_intensity_gco2e_mj))
+    wtw_tgt = max(1.0, float(target_wtw_gco2e_mj))
+    eu_share = max(0.0, min(100.0, float(eu_voyage_share_pct))) / 100.0
+    eua_eur = max(0.0, float(eua_carbon_price_eur_t))
+    aer_act = max(0.1, float(attained_aer_gco2_dwt_nm))
+    aer_req = max(0.1, float(required_aer_gco2_dwt_nm))
+
+    # Energy in MJ (assuming 41,000 MJ/t VLSFO equivalent)
+    total_energy_mj = fuel_t * 41000.0 * eu_share
+    ghg_balance_tco2e = ((wtw_tgt - wtw_act) * total_energy_mj) / 1e6
+    if ghg_balance_tco2e < 0.0 and wtw_act > 0.0:
+        fueleu_penalty_eur = (abs(ghg_balance_tco2e) * 1e6 / (wtw_act * 41000.0)) * 2400.0
+    else:
+        fueleu_penalty_eur = 0.0
+
+    # EU ETS CO2e liability (3.114 tCO2/t fuel * eu_share)
+    ets_verified_tco2e = fuel_t * 3.114 * eu_share
+    ets_cost_eur = ets_verified_tco2e * eua_eur
+
+    aer_ratio = aer_act / aer_req
+    if aer_ratio <= 0.86:
+        cii_grade = "A"
+    elif aer_ratio <= 0.94:
+        cii_grade = "B"
+    elif aer_ratio <= 1.06:
+        cii_grade = "C"
+    elif aer_ratio <= 1.18:
+        cii_grade = "D"
+    else:
+        cii_grade = "E"
+
+    return {
+        "annual_fuel_tonnes": round(fuel_t, 2),
+        "eu_scope_energy_gj": round(total_energy_mj / 1000.0, 2),
+        "fueleu_ghg_balance_tco2e": round(ghg_balance_tco2e, 2),
+        "fueleu_penalty_eur": round(fueleu_penalty_eur, 2),
+        "eu_ets_verified_tco2e": round(ets_verified_tco2e, 2),
+        "eu_ets_allowance_cost_eur": round(ets_cost_eur, 2),
+        "total_regulatory_carbon_cost_eur": round(fueleu_penalty_eur + ets_cost_eur, 2),
+        "imo_cii_aer_ratio": round(aer_ratio, 4),
+        "imo_cii_rating": cii_grade,
+        "reference": "Regulation (EU) 2023/1805 (FuelEU Maritime); Directive (EU) 2023/959 (EU ETS); IMO MEPC.377(80)",
+    }
+
+
+def subsea_corridor_vulnerability_index(
+    daily_vessel_transits: float = 58.0,
+    rerouting_detour_nm: float = 3450.0,
+    subsea_cable_count: int = 16,
+    cable_fault_rate_per_yr: float = 2.4,
+    geopolitical_hazard_score_0_100: float = 68.0,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Evaluate Global Maritime Chokepoint, Trade Corridor & Subsea Telecommunication/HVDC
+    Cable Infrastructure Vulnerability Index (0–100) following Verschuur et al. (Nature
+    Communications 2023), IMF PortWatch (2024–2026), Carter et al. (UNEP-WCMC/ICPC 2009),
+    and UN BBNJ High-Seas Governance metrics.
+    """
+    transits = max(0.0, float(daily_vessel_transits))
+    detour = max(0.0, float(rerouting_detour_nm))
+    cables = max(0, int(subsea_cable_count))
+    faults = max(0.0, float(cable_fault_rate_per_yr))
+    geo_haz = max(0.0, min(100.0, float(geopolitical_hazard_score_0_100)))
+
+    # Additional transit days at 14.5 knots service speed
+    added_days = detour / (14.5 * 24.0)
+    freight_surcharge_multiplier = 1.0 + 0.085 * added_days + 0.004 * geo_haz
+
+    s_detour = min(100.0, (detour / 4500.0) * 100.0)
+    s_cable = min(100.0, (cables / 22.0) * 55.0 + (faults / 5.0) * 45.0)
+    composite_vuln = 0.40 * geo_haz + 0.35 * s_detour + 0.25 * s_cable
+
+    return {
+        "daily_vessel_transits": round(transits, 1),
+        "rerouting_detour_nm": round(detour, 1),
+        "estimated_detour_days_at_14_5_kn": round(added_days, 2),
+        "subsea_cable_corridor_count": cables,
+        "annual_anchor_trawl_fault_rate": round(faults, 2),
+        "freight_war_risk_multiplier": round(freight_surcharge_multiplier, 3),
+        "corridor_infrastructure_vulnerability_0_100": round(composite_vuln, 2),
+        "reference": "Verschuur et al. (2023, Nat. Commun.); IMF PortWatch (2026); ICPC / TeleGeography (2026)",
+    }
+
+
+def rfmo_stock_iuu_sustainability(
+    ssb_bmsy_ratio: float = 1.04,
+    f_fmsy_ratio: float = 0.96,
+    iuu_risk_index_0_100: float = 34.0,
+    bycatch_compliance_pct: float = 68.0,
+    annual_tac_kt: float = 825.0,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Evaluate Regional Fisheries Management Organization (RFMO) Kobe Plot Quadrant Status
+    (SSB/BMSY vs. F/FMSY), Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) Depletion Risk, and
+    Sustainable Harvest Governance Index across all 18 Global RFMOs (Hilborn et al., PNAS 2020;
+    FAO SOFIA 2024; Agnew et al., PLOS ONE 2009).
+    """
+    b_ratio = max(0.05, float(ssb_bmsy_ratio))
+    f_ratio = max(0.05, float(f_fmsy_ratio))
+    iuu = max(0.0, min(100.0, float(iuu_risk_index_0_100)))
+    bycatch = max(0.0, min(100.0, float(bycatch_compliance_pct)))
+    tac = max(0.0, float(annual_tac_kt))
+
+    if b_ratio >= 1.0 and f_ratio <= 1.0:
+        kobe_quadrant = "GREEN (Sustainable: Not Overfished, No Overfishing)"
+    elif b_ratio < 1.0 and f_ratio > 1.0:
+        kobe_quadrant = "RED (Depleted & Overfishing Active)"
+    elif b_ratio < 1.0 and f_ratio <= 1.0:
+        kobe_quadrant = "YELLOW_REBUILDING (Overfished, Rebuilding Under Low F)"
+    else:
+        kobe_quadrant = "ORANGE_WARNING (Biomass Above BMSY but Overfishing Occurring)"
+
+    bio_health = min(100.0, max(0.0, (b_ratio / 1.35) * 55.0 + max(0.0, (2.0 - f_ratio) / 1.5) * 45.0))
+    governance_score = 0.45 * bio_health + 0.30 * (100.0 - iuu) + 0.25 * bycatch
+
+    return {
+        "ssb_bmsy_ratio": round(b_ratio, 3),
+        "f_fmsy_ratio": round(f_ratio, 3),
+        "kobe_plot_quadrant": kobe_quadrant,
+        "iuu_risk_index_0_100": round(iuu, 2),
+        "bycatch_compliance_pct": round(bycatch, 2),
+        "annual_tac_kt": round(tac, 1),
+        "rfmo_sustainability_index_0_100": round(governance_score, 2),
+        "reference": "Hilborn et al. (2020, PNAS); FAO SOFIA (2024); Cullis-Suzuki & Pauly (2010, Mar. Policy)",
+    }
+
+
+def desalination_brine_green_h2_nexus(
+    desal_capacity_m3_day: float = 850000.0,
+    specific_energy_kwh_m3: float = 3.25,
+    brine_salinity_anomaly_psu: float = 2.4,
+    green_h2_nh3_output_kt_yr: float = 210.0,
+    marine_renewable_mw: float = 380.0,
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Model the Coastal Seawater Desalination (SWRO), Hypersaline Brine Plume Dilution Demand,
+    and Green Maritime Hydrogen / e-Ammonia Electrolysis Nexus across 25 Global Hubs
+    (Jones et al., Sci. Total Environ. 2019; IRENA / IEA Green Hydrogen & Maritime e-Fuels 2024).
+    """
+    cap_m3d = max(100.0, float(desal_capacity_m3_day))
+    sec = max(1.8, float(specific_energy_kwh_m3))
+    psu_anom = max(0.1, float(brine_salinity_anomaly_psu))
+    h2_kt = max(0.0, float(green_h2_nh3_output_kt_yr))
+    ren_mw = max(0.0, float(marine_renewable_mw))
+
+    # Brine discharge volume assuming 45% SWRO recovery -> 1.22 m3 brine per m3 permeate
+    brine_discharge_m3_day = cap_m3d * 1.22
+    annual_power_gwh = (cap_m3d * sec * 365.0) / 1e6
+    # Stoichiometric water for electrolysis (~9 m3 ultrapure water per tonne H2) as % of annual desal output
+    electrolysis_water_share_pct = min(100.0, ((h2_kt * 1000.0 * 9.0) / (cap_m3d * 365.0)) * 100.0)
+    nexus_efficiency_score = min(100.0, max(0.0, (4.8 - sec) / 3.0 * 40.0 + max(0.0, (4.5 - psu_anom) / 4.5) * 30.0 + min(30.0, (ren_mw / 500.0) * 30.0)))
+
+    return {
+        "desal_capacity_m3_day": round(cap_m3d, 1),
+        "estimated_brine_discharge_m3_day": round(brine_discharge_m3_day, 1),
+        "specific_energy_kwh_m3": round(sec, 3),
+        "annual_desal_electricity_demand_gwh": round(annual_power_gwh, 2),
+        "brine_salinity_anomaly_psu": round(psu_anom, 2),
+        "green_h2_nh3_output_kt_yr": round(h2_kt, 2),
+        "electrolysis_feedwater_share_pct": round(electrolysis_water_share_pct, 3),
+        "coastal_water_energy_nexus_score_0_100": round(nexus_efficiency_score, 2),
+        "reference": "Jones et al. (2019, Sci. Total Environ.); IRENA & IMO Green Shipping Corridors (2024)",
+    }
+
+
+
+
+
+
+