autogluon.timeseries 1.4.1b20251215__py3-none-any.whl → 1.5.1b20260122__py3-none-any.whl

autogluon/timeseries/configs/hyperparameter_presets.py

@@ -12,51 +12,36 @@ def get_hyperparameter_presets() -> dict[str, dict[str, dict[str, Any] | list[di
             "DirectTabular": {"max_num_samples": 100_000},
         },
         "light": {
-            "Naive": {},
             "SeasonalNaive": {},
             "ETS": {},
             "Theta": {},
             "RecursiveTabular": {},
             "DirectTabular": {},
             "TemporalFusionTransformer": {},
-            "Chronos": {"model_path": "bolt_small"},
-        },
-        "light_inference": {
-            "SeasonalNaive": {},
-            "DirectTabular": {},
-            "RecursiveTabular": {},
-            "TemporalFusionTransformer": {},
-            "PatchTST": {},
+            "Chronos2": {"model_path": "autogluon/chronos-2-small"},
         },
         "default": {
             "SeasonalNaive": {},
             "AutoETS": {},
-            "NPTS": {},
             "DynamicOptimizedTheta": {},
             "RecursiveTabular": {},
             "DirectTabular": {},
             "TemporalFusionTransformer": {},
-            "PatchTST": {},
             "DeepAR": {},
-            "Chronos": [
-                {
-                    "ag_args": {"name_suffix": "ZeroShot"},
-                    "model_path": "bolt_base",
-                },
+            "Chronos2": [
+                {},
                 {
-                    "ag_args": {"name_suffix": "FineTuned"},
-                    "model_path": "bolt_small",
+                    "ag_args": {"name_suffix": "SmallFineTuned"},
+                    "model_path": "autogluon/chronos-2-small",
                     "fine_tune": True,
-                    "target_scaler": "standard",
-                    "covariate_regressor": {"model_name": "CAT", "model_hyperparameters": {"iterations": 1_000}},
+                    "eval_during_fine_tune": True,
                 },
             ],
-            "TiDE": {
-                "encoder_hidden_dim": 256,
-                "decoder_hidden_dim": 256,
-                "temporal_hidden_dim": 64,
-                "num_batches_per_epoch": 100,
-                "lr": 1e-4,
+            "Chronos": {
+                "ag_args": {"name_suffix": "WithRegressor"},
+                "model_path": "bolt_small",
+                "target_scaler": "standard",
+                "covariate_regressor": {"model_name": "CAT", "model_hyperparameters": {"iterations": 1000}},
             },
         },
     }

autogluon/timeseries/configs/predictor_presets.py

@@ -2,10 +2,7 @@
 
 from typing import Any
 
-from . import get_hyperparameter_presets
-
 TIMESERIES_PRESETS_ALIASES = dict(
-    chronos="chronos_small",
     best="best_quality",
     high="high_quality",
     medium="medium_quality",
@@ -16,10 +13,8 @@ TIMESERIES_PRESETS_ALIASES = dict(
 
 
 def get_predictor_presets() -> dict[str, Any]:
-    hp_presets = get_hyperparameter_presets()
-
     predictor_presets = dict(
-        best_quality={"hyperparameters": "default", "num_val_windows": 2},
+        best_quality={"hyperparameters": "default", "num_val_windows": "auto", "refit_every_n_windows": "auto"},
         high_quality={"hyperparameters": "default"},
         medium_quality={"hyperparameters": "light"},
         fast_training={"hyperparameters": "very_light"},
@@ -62,39 +57,6 @@ def get_predictor_presets() -> dict[str, Any]:
             "hyperparameters": {"Chronos": {"model_path": "bolt_base"}},
             "skip_model_selection": True,
         },
-        # Original Chronos models
-        chronos_tiny={
-            "hyperparameters": {"Chronos": {"model_path": "tiny"}},
-            "skip_model_selection": True,
-        },
-        chronos_mini={
-            "hyperparameters": {"Chronos": {"model_path": "mini"}},
-            "skip_model_selection": True,
-        },
-        chronos_small={
-            "hyperparameters": {"Chronos": {"model_path": "small"}},
-            "skip_model_selection": True,
-        },
-        chronos_base={
-            "hyperparameters": {"Chronos": {"model_path": "base"}},
-            "skip_model_selection": True,
-        },
-        chronos_large={
-            "hyperparameters": {"Chronos": {"model_path": "large", "batch_size": 8}},
-            "skip_model_selection": True,
-        },
-        chronos_ensemble={
-            "hyperparameters": {
-                "Chronos": {"model_path": "small"},
-                **hp_presets["light_inference"],
-            }
-        },
-        chronos_large_ensemble={
-            "hyperparameters": {
-                "Chronos": {"model_path": "large", "batch_size": 8},
-                **hp_presets["light_inference"],
-            }
-        },
     )
 
     # update with aliases

autogluon/timeseries/models/abstract/abstract_timeseries_model.py

@@ -668,7 +668,6 @@ class AbstractTimeSeriesModel(TimeSeriesModelBase, TimeSeriesTunable, metaclass=
         pass
 
     def _preprocess_time_limit(self, time_limit: float) -> float:
-        original_time_limit = time_limit
         max_time_limit_ratio = self._extra_ag_args.get("max_time_limit_ratio", self.default_max_time_limit_ratio)
         max_time_limit = self._extra_ag_args.get("max_time_limit")
 
@@ -677,16 +676,6 @@ class AbstractTimeSeriesModel(TimeSeriesModelBase, TimeSeriesTunable, metaclass=
         if max_time_limit is not None:
             time_limit = min(time_limit, max_time_limit)
 
-        if original_time_limit != time_limit:
-            time_limit_og_str = f"{original_time_limit:.2f}s" if original_time_limit is not None else "None"
-            time_limit_str = f"{time_limit:.2f}s" if time_limit is not None else "None"
-            logger.debug(
-                f"\tTime limit adjusted due to model hyperparameters: "
-                f"{time_limit_og_str} -> {time_limit_str} "
-                f"(ag.max_time_limit={max_time_limit}, "
-                f"ag.max_time_limit_ratio={max_time_limit_ratio}"
-            )
-
         return time_limit
 
     def _get_search_space(self):

autogluon/timeseries/models/autogluon_tabular/per_step.py

@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ class PerStepTabularModel(AbstractTimeSeriesModel):
         If None, automatically determined based on available memory to prevent OOM errors.
     """
 
-    ag_priority = 70
+    ag_priority = 80
     _dummy_freq = "D"
 
     def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs):

autogluon/timeseries/models/chronos/chronos2.py

@@ -76,9 +76,14 @@ class Chronos2Model(AbstractTimeSeriesModel):
         Extra keyword arguments passed to ``transformers.TrainingArguments``
     revision : str, default = None
         Model revision to use (branch name or commit hash). If None, the default branch (usually "main") is used.
+    disable_known_covariates : bool, default = False
+        If True, known covariates won't be used by the model even if they are present in the dataset.
+    disable_past_covariates : bool, default = False
+        If True, past covariates won't be used by the model even if they are present in the dataset.
     """
 
     ag_model_aliases = ["Chronos-2"]
+    ag_priority = 75
     fine_tuned_ckpt_name: str = "fine-tuned-ckpt"
 
     _supports_known_covariates = True
@@ -142,7 +147,7 @@ class Chronos2Model(AbstractTimeSeriesModel):
         self.load_model_pipeline()
 
         # NOTE: This must be placed after load_model_pipeline to ensure that the loggers are available in loggerDict
-        self._update_transformers_loggers(logging.ERROR if verbosity <= 3 else logging.INFO)
+        self._update_transformers_loggers(logging.ERROR if verbosity <= 3 else logging.WARNING)
 
         if self.get_hyperparameter("fine_tune"):
             self._fine_tune(train_data, val_data, time_limit=time_limit, verbosity=verbosity)
@@ -175,6 +180,8 @@ class Chronos2Model(AbstractTimeSeriesModel):
             "fine_tune_eval_max_items": 256,
             "fine_tune_lora_config": None,
             "revision": None,
+            "disable_known_covariates": False,
+            "disable_past_covariates": False,
         }
 
     @property
@@ -196,14 +203,34 @@ class Chronos2Model(AbstractTimeSeriesModel):
             "fine_tune_lora_config",
             "fine_tune_trainer_kwargs",
             "revision",
+            "disable_known_covariates",
+            "disable_past_covariates",
         ]
 
+    def _remove_disabled_covariates(
+        self, past_df: pd.DataFrame, future_df: pd.DataFrame | None
+    ) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame | None]:
+        """Remove covariates from dataframes based on disable flags."""
+        cols_to_remove = []
+        if self.get_hyperparameter("disable_past_covariates"):
+            cols_to_remove.extend(self.covariate_metadata.past_covariates)
+        if self.get_hyperparameter("disable_known_covariates"):
+            cols_to_remove.extend(self.covariate_metadata.known_covariates)
+            future_df = None
+
+        if cols_to_remove:
+            past_df = past_df.drop(columns=cols_to_remove)
+
+        return past_df, future_df
+
     def _predict(
         self,
         data: TimeSeriesDataFrame,
         known_covariates: TimeSeriesDataFrame | None = None,
         **kwargs,
     ) -> TimeSeriesDataFrame:
+        from .utils import timeout_callback
+
         if self._model_pipeline is None:
             self.load_model_pipeline()
         assert self._model_pipeline is not None
@@ -224,6 +251,9 @@ class Chronos2Model(AbstractTimeSeriesModel):
         cross_learning = self.get_hyperparameter("cross_learning")
         context_length = self.get_hyperparameter("context_length")
         future_df = known_covariates.reset_index().to_data_frame() if known_covariates is not None else None
+        time_limit = kwargs.get("time_limit")
+
+        context_df, future_df = self._remove_disabled_covariates(context_df, future_df)
 
         forecast_df = self._model_pipeline.predict_df(
             df=context_df,
@@ -235,6 +265,7 @@ class Chronos2Model(AbstractTimeSeriesModel):
             batch_size=batch_size,
             validate_inputs=False,
             cross_learning=cross_learning,
+            after_batch=timeout_callback(time_limit),
         )
 
         forecast_df = forecast_df.rename(columns={"predictions": "mean"}).drop(columns="target_name")
@@ -277,8 +308,11 @@ class Chronos2Model(AbstractTimeSeriesModel):
         from .utils import LoggerCallback, TimeLimitCallback
 
         def convert_data(df: TimeSeriesDataFrame):
+            past_df = df.reset_index().to_data_frame()
+            past_df, _ = self._remove_disabled_covariates(past_df, None)
+
             inputs, _, _ = convert_df_input_to_list_of_dicts_input(
-                df=df.reset_index().to_data_frame(),
+                df=past_df,
                 future_df=None,
                 target_columns=[self.target],
                 prediction_length=self.prediction_length,
@@ -288,13 +322,13 @@ class Chronos2Model(AbstractTimeSeriesModel):
             # The above utility will only split the dataframe into target and past_covariates, where past_covariates contains
             # past values of both past-only and known-future covariates. We need to add future_covariates to enable fine-tuning
             # with known covariates by indicating which covariates are known in the future.
-            known_covariates = self.covariate_metadata.known_covariates
-
-            if len(known_covariates) > 0:
-                for input_dict in inputs:
-                    # NOTE: the covariates are empty because the actual values are not used
-                    # This only indicates which covariates are known in the future
-                    input_dict["future_covariates"] = {name: np.array([]) for name in known_covariates}
+            if not self.get_hyperparameter("disable_known_covariates"):
+                known_covariates = self.covariate_metadata.known_covariates
+                if len(known_covariates) > 0:
+                    for input_dict in inputs:
+                        # NOTE: the covariates are empty because the actual values are not used
+                        # This only indicates which covariates are known in the future
+                        input_dict["future_covariates"] = {name: np.array([]) for name in known_covariates}
 
             return inputs
 

autogluon/timeseries/models/chronos/model.py

@@ -471,7 +471,7 @@ class ChronosModel(AbstractTimeSeriesModel):
         for logger_name in logging.root.manager.loggerDict:
             if "transformers" in logger_name:
                 transformers_logger = logging.getLogger(logger_name)
-                transformers_logger.setLevel(logging.ERROR if verbosity <= 3 else logging.INFO)
+                transformers_logger.setLevel(logging.ERROR if verbosity <= 3 else logging.WARNING)
 
         self._check_fit_params()
         self._log_unused_hyperparameters()
@@ -639,7 +639,7 @@ class ChronosModel(AbstractTimeSeriesModel):
             batch_size=batch_size,
             shuffle=False,
             num_workers=num_workers,
-            on_batch=timeout_callback(seconds=time_limit),
+            after_batch=timeout_callback(seconds=time_limit),
         )
 
     def _get_context_length(self, data: TimeSeriesDataFrame) -> int:

autogluon/timeseries/models/chronos/utils.py

@@ -255,7 +255,7 @@ class ChronosInferenceDataset:
 
 class ChronosInferenceDataLoader(torch.utils.data.DataLoader):
     def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs):
-        self.callback: Callable = kwargs.pop("on_batch", lambda: None)
+        self.callback: Callable = kwargs.pop("after_batch", lambda: None)
         super().__init__(*args, **kwargs)
 
     def __iter__(self):  # type: ignore

autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/array_based/models.py

@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ class BaseTabularEnsemble(ArrayBasedTimeSeriesEnsembleModel, ABC):
 
     def _get_default_hyperparameters(self) -> dict[str, Any]:
         default_hps = super()._get_default_hyperparameters()
-        default_hps.update({"model_name": "GBM", "model_hyperparameters": {}})
+        default_hps.update({"model_name": "CAT", "model_hyperparameters": {}})
         return default_hps
 
     def _get_ensemble_regressor(self):
@@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ class TabularEnsemble(BaseTabularEnsemble):
 
     Other Parameters
     ----------------
-    model_name : str, default = "GBM"
+    model_name : str, default = "CAT"
         Name of the AutoGluon-Tabular model to use for ensemble learning. Model name should be registered
         in AutoGluon-Tabular model registry.
     model_hyperparameters : dict, default = {}

autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/per_item_greedy.py

@@ -102,7 +102,7 @@ class PerItemGreedyEnsemble(AbstractTimeSeriesEnsembleModel):
             self.average_weight = self.average_weight[models_to_keep]
 
         weights_for_printing = {model: round(float(weight), 2) for model, weight in self.average_weight.items()}
-        logger.info(f"\tAverage ensemble weights: {pprint.pformat(weights_for_printing, width=200)}")
+        logger.info(f"\tAverage ensemble weights: {pprint.pformat(weights_for_printing, width=1000)}")
 
     def _split_predictions_per_item(
         self, predictions_per_window: dict[str, list[TimeSeriesDataFrame]]

autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/weighted/greedy.py

@@ -14,6 +14,8 @@ class GreedyEnsemble(AbstractWeightedTimeSeriesEnsembleModel):
     """Greedy ensemble selection algorithm that iteratively builds an ensemble by selecting models with
     replacement.
 
+    Also known as ``WeightedEnsemble`` for backward compatibility.
+
     This class implements the Ensemble Selection algorithm by Caruana et al. [Car2004]_, which starts
     with an empty ensemble and repeatedly adds the model that most improves the ensemble's validation
     performance. Models can be selected multiple times, allowing the algorithm to assign higher effective

autogluon/timeseries/models/gluonts/models.py

@@ -41,10 +41,8 @@ class DeepARModel(AbstractGluonTSModel):
         Number of steps to unroll the RNN for before computing predictions
     disable_static_features : bool, default = False
         If True, static features won't be used by the model even if they are present in the dataset.
-        If False, static features will be used by the model if they are present in the dataset.
     disable_known_covariates : bool, default = False
         If True, known covariates won't be used by the model even if they are present in the dataset.
-        If False, known covariates will be used by the model if they are present in the dataset.
     num_layers : int, default = 2
         Number of RNN layers
     hidden_size : int, default = 40
@@ -170,13 +168,10 @@ class TemporalFusionTransformerModel(AbstractGluonTSModel):
         Distribution output object that defines how the model output is converted to a forecast, and how the loss is computed.
     disable_static_features : bool, default = False
         If True, static features won't be used by the model even if they are present in the dataset.
-        If False, static features will be used by the model if they are present in the dataset.
     disable_known_covariates : bool, default = False
         If True, known covariates won't be used by the model even if they are present in the dataset.
-        If False, known covariates will be used by the model if they are present in the dataset.
     disable_past_covariates : bool, default = False
         If True, past covariates won't be used by the model even if they are present in the dataset.
-        If False, past covariates will be used by the model if they are present in the dataset.
     hidden_dim : int, default = 32
         Size of the LSTM & transformer hidden states.
     variable_dim : int, default = 32
@@ -470,10 +465,8 @@ class TiDEModel(AbstractGluonTSModel):
         Number of past values used for prediction.
     disable_static_features : bool, default = False
         If True, static features won't be used by the model even if they are present in the dataset.
-        If False, static features will be used by the model if they are present in the dataset.
     disable_known_covariates : bool, default = False
         If True, known covariates won't be used by the model even if they are present in the dataset.
-        If False, known covariates will be used by the model if they are present in the dataset.
     feat_proj_hidden_dim : int, default = 4
         Size of the feature projection layer.
     encoder_hidden_dim : int, default = 64

autogluon/timeseries/models/local/statsforecast.py

@@ -269,7 +269,7 @@ class AutoETSModel(AbstractProbabilisticStatsForecastModel):
         This significantly speeds up fitting and usually leads to no change in accuracy.
     """
 
-    ag_priority = 70
+    ag_priority = 60
     init_time_in_seconds = 0  # C++ models require no compilation
     allowed_local_model_args = [
         "damped",

autogluon/timeseries/predictor.py

@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ from typing import Any, Literal, Type, cast, overload
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
 
+from autogluon.common.utils.decorators import apply_presets
 from autogluon.common.utils.log_utils import (
     add_log_to_file,
     set_logger_verbosity,
@@ -17,7 +18,6 @@ from autogluon.common.utils.log_utils import (
 )
 from autogluon.common.utils.system_info import get_ag_system_info
 from autogluon.common.utils.utils import check_saved_predictor_version, setup_outputdir
-from autogluon.core.utils.decorators import apply_presets
 from autogluon.core.utils.loaders import load_pkl, load_str
 from autogluon.core.utils.savers import save_pkl, save_str
 from autogluon.timeseries import __version__ as current_ag_version
@@ -414,9 +414,9 @@ class TimeSeriesPredictor:
         hyperparameter_tune_kwargs: str | dict | None = None,
         excluded_model_types: list[str] | None = None,
         ensemble_hyperparameters: dict[str, Any] | list[dict[str, Any]] | None = None,
-        num_val_windows: int | tuple[int, ...] = 1,
+        num_val_windows: int | tuple[int, ...] | Literal["auto"] = 1,
         val_step_size: int | None = None,
-        refit_every_n_windows: int | None = 1,
+        refit_every_n_windows: int | None | Literal["auto"] = 1,
         refit_full: bool = False,
         enable_ensemble: bool = True,
         skip_model_selection: bool = False,
@@ -487,18 +487,23 @@ class TimeSeriesPredictor:
             Available presets:
 
             - ``"fast_training"``: Simple statistical and tree-based ML models. These models are fast to train but may not be very accurate.
-            - ``"medium_quality"``: Same models as above, plus deep learning models ``TemporalFusionTransformer`` and Chronos-Bolt (small). Produces good forecasts with reasonable training time.
+            - ``"medium_quality"``: Same models as above, plus deep learning models ``TemporalFusionTransformer`` and Chronos-2 (small). Produces good forecasts with reasonable training time.
             - ``"high_quality"``: A mix of multiple DL, ML and statistical forecasting models available in AutoGluon that offers the best forecast accuracy. Much more accurate than ``medium_quality``, but takes longer to train.
             - ``"best_quality"``: Same models as in ``"high_quality"``, but performs validation with multiple backtests. Usually better than ``high_quality``, but takes even longer to train.
 
-            Available presets with the `Chronos-Bolt <https://github.com/amazon-science/chronos-forecasting>`_ model:
+            Available presets with the `Chronos-2 and Chronos-Bolt <https://github.com/amazon-science/chronos-forecasting>`_ models:
 
+            - ``"chronos2"``: `Chronos-2 <https://huggingface.co/amazon/chronos-2>`_ base model for zero-shot forecasting.
+            - ``"chronos2_small"``: Smaller Chronos-2 model for faster zero-shot forecasting with lower memory footprint.
+            - ``"chronos2_ensemble"``: Ensemble combining zero-shot Chronos-2 base model with fine-tuned Chronos-2 small model for improved accuracy.
             - ``"bolt_{model_size}"``: where model size is one of ``tiny,mini,small,base``. Uses the Chronos-Bolt pretrained model for zero-shot forecasting.
-              See the documentation for ``ChronosModel`` or see `Hugging Face <https://huggingface.co/collections/amazon/chronos-models-65f1791d630a8d57cb718444>`_ for more information.
 
-            Exact definitions of these presets can be found in the source code
-            [`1 <https://github.com/autogluon/autogluon/blob/stable/timeseries/src/autogluon/timeseries/configs/presets_configs.py>`_,
-            `2 <https://github.com/autogluon/autogluon/blob/stable/timeseries/src/autogluon/timeseries/models/presets.py>`_].
+            See the documentation for ``Chronos2`` and ``Chronos`` models in :ref:`Forecasting Time Series - Model Zoo <forecasting_model_zoo>`
+            or see `Hugging Face <https://huggingface.co/collections/amazon/chronos-models-65f1791d630a8d57cb718444>`_ for more information.
+
+            Exact definitions of all presets can be found in the source code
+            [`1 <https://github.com/autogluon/autogluon/blob/stable/timeseries/src/autogluon/timeseries/configs/predictor_presets.py>`_,
+            `2 <https://github.com/autogluon/autogluon/blob/stable/timeseries/src/autogluon/timeseries/configs/hyperparameter_presets.py>`_].
 
             If no ``presets`` are selected, user-provided values for ``hyperparameters`` will be used (defaulting to their
             default values specified below).
@@ -574,6 +579,8 @@ class TimeSeriesPredictor:
                 * "bayes": Perform HPO with HyperOpt on GluonTS-backed models via Ray tune. Perform random search on other models.
                 * "auto": alias for "bayes"
 
+            To enable HyperOpt, install the corresponding extra with ``pip install "autogluon.timeseries[ray]"``.
+
             The "scheduler" and "searcher" key are required when providing a dict.
 
             Example::
@@ -618,10 +625,13 @@ class TimeSeriesPredictor:
                 )
 
             When using multi-layer ensembling, ``num_val_windows`` must be a tuple of integers, and  ``len(ensemble_hyperparameters)`` must match ``len(num_val_windows)``.
-        num_val_windows : int | tuple[int, ...], default = 1
+        num_val_windows : int | tuple[int, ...] | "auto", default = 1
             Number of backtests done on ``train_data`` for each trained model to estimate the validation performance.
             This parameter is also used to control multi-layer ensembling.
 
+            If set to ``"auto"``, the value will be determined automatically based on dataset properties (number of
+            time series and median time series length).
+
             Increasing this parameter increases the training time roughly by a factor of
             ``num_val_windows // refit_every_n_windows``. See ``refit_every_n_windows`` and ``val_step_size`` for
             details.
@@ -663,11 +673,13 @@ class TimeSeriesPredictor:
             provided when creating the predictor.
 
             If ``tuning_data`` is provided and ``len(ensemble_hyperparameters) == 1``, then this parameter is ignored.
-        refit_every_n_windows: int or None, default = 1
+        refit_every_n_windows: int | None | "auto", default = 1
             When performing cross validation, each model will be retrained every ``refit_every_n_windows`` validation
             windows, where the number of validation windows is specified by ``num_val_windows``. Note that in the
             default setting where ``num_val_windows=1``, this argument has no effect.
 
+            If set to ``"auto"``, the value will be determined automatically based on ``num_val_windows``.
+
             If set to ``None``, models will only be fit once for the first (oldest) validation window. By default,
             ``refit_every_n_windows=1``, i.e., all models will be refit for each validation window.
         refit_full : bool, default = False
@@ -739,12 +751,33 @@ class TimeSeriesPredictor:
 
         if val_step_size is None:
             val_step_size = self.prediction_length
+        median_timeseries_length = int(train_data.num_timesteps_per_item().median())
+
+        # Early validation: check length mismatch when num_val_windows is explicitly provided
+        if num_val_windows != "auto" and ensemble_hyperparameters is not None:
+            num_layers = len(ensemble_hyperparameters) if isinstance(ensemble_hyperparameters, list) else 1
+            num_windows_tuple = num_val_windows if isinstance(num_val_windows, tuple) else (num_val_windows,)
+            if len(num_windows_tuple) != num_layers:
+                raise ValueError(
+                    f"Length mismatch: num_val_windows has {len(num_windows_tuple)} element(s) but "
+                    f"ensemble_hyperparameters has {num_layers} layer(s). These must match when num_val_windows "
+                    f"is explicitly provided. Use num_val_windows='auto' to automatically determine the number of windows."
+                )
+
+        if num_val_windows == "auto":
+            num_val_windows = self._recommend_num_val_windows_auto(
+                median_timeseries_length=median_timeseries_length,
+                val_step_size=val_step_size,
+                num_items=train_data.num_items,
+                ensemble_hyperparameters=ensemble_hyperparameters,
+            )
+            logger.info(f"Automatically setting num_val_windows={num_val_windows} based on dataset properties")
 
         num_val_windows, ensemble_hyperparameters = self._validate_and_normalize_validation_and_ensemble_inputs(
             num_val_windows=num_val_windows,
             ensemble_hyperparameters=ensemble_hyperparameters,
             val_step_size=val_step_size,
-            median_timeseries_length=train_data.num_timesteps_per_item().median(),
+            median_timeseries_length=median_timeseries_length,
             tuning_data_provided=tuning_data is not None,
         )
 
@@ -753,6 +786,12 @@ class TimeSeriesPredictor:
             tuning_data = self._check_and_prepare_data_frame_for_evaluation(tuning_data, name="tuning_data")
             logger.info(f"Provided tuning_data has {self._get_dataset_stats(tuning_data)}")
 
+        if refit_every_n_windows == "auto":
+            refit_every_n_windows = self._recommend_refit_every_n_windows_auto(num_val_windows)
+            logger.info(
+                f"Automatically setting refit_every_n_windows={refit_every_n_windows} based on num_val_windows"
+            )
+
         if sum(num_val_windows) <= 1 and refit_every_n_windows is not None and refit_every_n_windows > 1:
             logger.warning(
                 f"\trefit_every_n_windows provided as {refit_every_n_windows} but num_val_windows is set to "
@@ -790,6 +829,37 @@ class TimeSeriesPredictor:
         self.save()
         return self
 
+    def _recommend_num_val_windows_auto(
+        self,
+        num_items: int,
+        median_timeseries_length: int,
+        val_step_size: int,
+        ensemble_hyperparameters: dict[str, Any] | list[dict[str, Any]] | None = None,
+    ) -> tuple[int, ...]:
+        if num_items < 20:
+            recommended_windows = 5
+        elif num_items < 100:
+            recommended_windows = 3
+        else:
+            recommended_windows = 2
+
+        min_train_length = max(2 * self.prediction_length + 1, 10)
+        max_windows = int((median_timeseries_length - min_train_length - self.prediction_length) // val_step_size + 1)
+        total_windows = min(recommended_windows, max(1, max_windows))
+
+        num_layers = len(ensemble_hyperparameters) if isinstance(ensemble_hyperparameters, list) else 1
+        if total_windows >= num_layers:
+            # Distribute windows: most to first layer, 1 to each remaining layer
+            return (total_windows - num_layers + 1,) + (1,) * (num_layers - 1)
+        else:
+            # Insufficient windows: return tuple matching num_layers, will be reduced downstream
+            return (1,) * num_layers
+
+    def _recommend_refit_every_n_windows_auto(self, num_val_windows: tuple[int, ...]) -> int:
+        # Simple mapping for total_windows -> refit_ever_n_windows: 1 -> 1, 2 -> 1, 3 -> 2, 4 -> 2, 5 -> 2
+        total_windows = sum(num_val_windows)
+        return int(round(total_windows**0.5))
+
     def _validate_and_normalize_validation_and_ensemble_inputs(
         self,
         num_val_windows: int | tuple[int, ...],
@@ -799,18 +869,8 @@ class TimeSeriesPredictor:
         tuning_data_provided: bool,
     ) -> tuple[tuple[int, ...], list[dict[str, Any]] | None]:
         """Validate and normalize num_val_windows and ensemble_hyperparameters for multi-layer ensembling."""
-        original_num_val_windows = num_val_windows if isinstance(num_val_windows, tuple) else (num_val_windows,)
-
-        if ensemble_hyperparameters is not None:
-            if isinstance(ensemble_hyperparameters, dict):
-                ensemble_hyperparameters = [ensemble_hyperparameters]
-
-            if len(ensemble_hyperparameters) != len(original_num_val_windows):
-                raise ValueError(
-                    f"Length mismatch: num_val_windows has {len(original_num_val_windows)} layers but "
-                    f"ensemble_hyperparameters has {len(ensemble_hyperparameters)} layers. "
-                    f"These must match for multi-layer ensembling."
-                )
+        if ensemble_hyperparameters is not None and isinstance(ensemble_hyperparameters, dict):
+            ensemble_hyperparameters = [ensemble_hyperparameters]
 
         num_val_windows = self._normalize_num_val_windows_input(num_val_windows, tuning_data_provided)
         num_val_windows = self._reduce_num_val_windows_if_necessary(

autogluon/timeseries/trainer/trainer.py

@@ -495,7 +495,6 @@ class TimeSeriesTrainer(AbstractTrainer[TimeSeriesModelBase]):
                     time_reserved_for_ensemble = min(
                         self.max_ensemble_time_limit, time_left / (num_base_models - i + 1)
                     )
-                    logger.debug(f"Reserving {time_reserved_for_ensemble:.1f}s for ensemble")
                 else:
                     time_reserved_for_ensemble = 0.0
                 time_left_for_model = (time_left - time_reserved_for_ensemble) / (num_base_models - i)
@@ -869,9 +868,6 @@ class TimeSeriesTrainer(AbstractTrainer[TimeSeriesModelBase]):
         # start timer and cap subsample size if it's greater than the number of items in the provided data set
         time_start = time.time()
         if subsample_size > data.num_items:
-            logger.info(
-                f"Subsample_size {subsample_size} is larger than the number of items in the data and will be ignored"
-            )
             subsample_size = data.num_items
 
         # set default number of iterations and cap iterations if the number of items in the data is smaller

autogluon/timeseries/version.py

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
 """This is the autogluon version file."""
 
-__version__ = "1.4.1b20251215"
+__version__ = "1.5.1b20260122"
 __lite__ = False

{autogluon_timeseries-1.4.1b20251215.dist-info → autogluon_timeseries-1.5.1b20260122.dist-info}/METADATA

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.4
 Name: autogluon.timeseries
-Version: 1.4.1b20251215
+Version: 1.5.1b20260122
 Summary: Fast and Accurate ML in 3 Lines of Code
 Home-page: https://github.com/autogluon/autogluon
 Author: AutoGluon Community
@@ -53,22 +53,22 @@ Requires-Dist: fugue>=0.9.0
 Requires-Dist: tqdm<5,>=4.38
 Requires-Dist: orjson~=3.9
 Requires-Dist: einops<1,>=0.7
-Requires-Dist: chronos-forecasting<2.4,>=2.2.0
+Requires-Dist: chronos-forecasting<2.4,>=2.2.2
 Requires-Dist: peft<0.18,>=0.13.0
 Requires-Dist: tensorboard<3,>=2.9
-Requires-Dist: autogluon.core==1.4.1b20251215
-Requires-Dist: autogluon.common==1.4.1b20251215
-Requires-Dist: autogluon.features==1.4.1b20251215
-Requires-Dist: autogluon.tabular[catboost,lightgbm,xgboost]==1.4.1b20251215
+Requires-Dist: autogluon.core==1.5.1b20260122
+Requires-Dist: autogluon.common==1.5.1b20260122
+Requires-Dist: autogluon.features==1.5.1b20260122
+Requires-Dist: autogluon.tabular[catboost,lightgbm,xgboost]==1.5.1b20260122
 Provides-Extra: tests
 Requires-Dist: pytest; extra == "tests"
 Requires-Dist: ruff>=0.0.285; extra == "tests"
 Requires-Dist: flaky<4,>=3.7; extra == "tests"
 Requires-Dist: pytest-timeout<3,>=2.1; extra == "tests"
 Provides-Extra: ray
-Requires-Dist: autogluon.core[raytune]==1.4.1b20251215; extra == "ray"
+Requires-Dist: autogluon.core[raytune]==1.5.1b20260122; extra == "ray"
 Provides-Extra: all
-Requires-Dist: autogluon.core[raytune]==1.4.1b20251215; extra == "all"
+Requires-Dist: autogluon.core[raytune]==1.5.1b20260122; extra == "all"
 Dynamic: author
 Dynamic: classifier
 Dynamic: description

{autogluon_timeseries-1.4.1b20251215.dist-info → autogluon_timeseries-1.5.1b20260122.dist-info}/RECORD

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
-autogluon.timeseries-1.4.1b20251215-py3.11-nspkg.pth,sha256=kAlKxjI5mE3Pwwqphu2maN5OBQk8W8ew70e_qbI1c6A,482
+autogluon.timeseries-1.5.1b20260122-py3.11-nspkg.pth,sha256=kAlKxjI5mE3Pwwqphu2maN5OBQk8W8ew70e_qbI1c6A,482
 autogluon/timeseries/__init__.py,sha256=_CrLLc1fkjen7UzWoO0Os8WZoHOgvZbHKy46I8v_4k4,304
 autogluon/timeseries/learner.py,sha256=9kGn0ACGfbyZRlZmwkrgBbkwq7c2715yKDCh1EK3EWQ,14961
-autogluon/timeseries/predictor.py,sha256=0jFU63BNGIq0Y33hj-XmXobetYNObuIHpNKk29ydUUA,103144
+autogluon/timeseries/predictor.py,sha256=egBu6YKVe8GRrLJ1khOKflzSu-VDSH5_mCCQuaXQNRY,106686
 autogluon/timeseries/regressor.py,sha256=HDdqi7MYRheW3uZy5c50sqVDAHap0ooyQBdOvKEKkWM,11718
 autogluon/timeseries/splitter.py,sha256=2rypDxDKkqOC2v5nPJ6m0cmHQTZ9D6qUFrQV1HC9lz4,2329
-autogluon/timeseries/version.py,sha256=l3nl_aPmIgPmCpYmL6FcaeflMlmZ3u1TwxKWLeIjjMg,91
+autogluon/timeseries/version.py,sha256=MnD7Xa8VoA14eqZRxJp2qccaD7BlVLoiG_OaIqHKK5E,91
 autogluon/timeseries/configs/__init__.py,sha256=wiLBwxZkDTQBJkSJ9-xz3p_yJxX0dbHe108dS1P5O6A,183
-autogluon/timeseries/configs/hyperparameter_presets.py,sha256=uxL5H9k9kiDcXl16bWZ57Y1HUwwwmfSaQEpUrS-J4yU,2018
-autogluon/timeseries/configs/predictor_presets.py,sha256=sYnrs0A1ae5yzHcLLMl4v5oU9kPB3m7nK-rPzjCasFo,3577
+autogluon/timeseries/configs/hyperparameter_presets.py,sha256=F38QMemh3LR4cT60xMZctI6O1XTOgNpVSleGOKMfhQQ,1586
+autogluon/timeseries/configs/predictor_presets.py,sha256=2CkUXIFtup5w5sQkIhoU5G84b9jiNfcUC0yEug3izGY,2327
 autogluon/timeseries/dataset/__init__.py,sha256=UvnhAN5tjgxXTHoZMQDy64YMDj4Xxa68yY7NP4vAw0o,81
 autogluon/timeseries/dataset/ts_dataframe.py,sha256=IOIkwV_VPV3JvilNt98gZ77gMHIpk-Ug-trDvqSk_Jg,52228
 autogluon/timeseries/metrics/__init__.py,sha256=iFGLMOtDJ470dbmmx1BsdUKBx4RwI6ZQGFat3Z-wpzI,3567
@@ -18,25 +18,25 @@ autogluon/timeseries/metrics/utils.py,sha256=_Nz6GLbs91WhqN1PoA53wD4xEEuPIQ0juV5
 autogluon/timeseries/models/__init__.py,sha256=zPdwxiveOTGU9658tDPMFXbflZ5fzd_AJdbCacbfZ0s,1375
 autogluon/timeseries/models/registry.py,sha256=dkuyKG5UK2xiGtXcsuyRDXrI-YC84zkPre8Z3wt9T_A,2115
 autogluon/timeseries/models/abstract/__init__.py,sha256=Htfkjjc3vo92RvyM8rIlQ0PLWt3jcrCKZES07UvCMV0,146
-autogluon/timeseries/models/abstract/abstract_timeseries_model.py,sha256=7j_ULO_d7SUUprHqnMjF_4pz8rDXODyyFeboJaQohAw,32489
+autogluon/timeseries/models/abstract/abstract_timeseries_model.py,sha256=80ShlklwAnGoMEKjMDjgoVrkGG6x2Eg3nOwbjJVMCqk,31909
 autogluon/timeseries/models/abstract/model_trial.py,sha256=xKD6Nw8hIqAq4HxNVcGUhr9BuEqzFn7FX0TenvZHU0Q,3753
 autogluon/timeseries/models/abstract/tunable.py,sha256=thl_wJjB9ao1T5NNF1RVH5k3yFqmao0irX-eUNqDs8k,7111
 autogluon/timeseries/models/autogluon_tabular/__init__.py,sha256=E5fZsdFPgVdyCVyj5bGmn_lQFlCMn2NvuRLBMcCFvhM,205
 autogluon/timeseries/models/autogluon_tabular/mlforecast.py,sha256=FJlYqMZJaltTlh54LMrDOgICgGanIymBI2F4OevVQ6A,36690
-autogluon/timeseries/models/autogluon_tabular/per_step.py,sha256=kc0OIveCUfMbl1yGANW42EaRFZZNmlr1AJdcG-nqihA,23360
+autogluon/timeseries/models/autogluon_tabular/per_step.py,sha256=q2V8dSyHns7gkcDwAIpczFse3vHHyYSm4LjJ4KICsWo,23360
 autogluon/timeseries/models/autogluon_tabular/transforms.py,sha256=AkXEInK4GocApU5GylECH01qgz5cLLLqC9apuN0eUbQ,2873
 autogluon/timeseries/models/autogluon_tabular/utils.py,sha256=Fn3Vu_Q0PCtEUbtNgLp1xIblg7dOdpFlF3W5kLHgruI,63
 autogluon/timeseries/models/chronos/__init__.py,sha256=dIoAImmZc0dTlut4CZkJxcg1bpuHKZkS8x8Y6fBoUAY,113
-autogluon/timeseries/models/chronos/chronos2.py,sha256=86pWzlExDMp6FGD0ob1Tui2cJQBgeYljGTRUqIRzBNM,15177
-autogluon/timeseries/models/chronos/model.py,sha256=49QF2aM-piPLWd2oD1_0qaWTCUaInCxx_8aHBh8Q-wY,33675
-autogluon/timeseries/models/chronos/utils.py,sha256=t80Cz3EdEOzI2youjVSNYrz1_Xhi-BiaiLsodI5fYtM,14446
+autogluon/timeseries/models/chronos/chronos2.py,sha256=N8TW1EaYwqPqeRbntlkhz9L7uADBna0LDZPMYWH4w3c,16800
+autogluon/timeseries/models/chronos/model.py,sha256=npTcHR6nSi7lfCzZfVl_9G6iHJwIMRm3wfqjOAnBcIQ,33681
+autogluon/timeseries/models/chronos/utils.py,sha256=33_kycc7AVasS3c7-AuVFtqBTZzV_yszr-MpKe28S3M,14449
 autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/__init__.py,sha256=3_Vn6RHpjouthrEoXs1guKUpUX6JoUgMVCgxPt2pyLw,1302
 autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/abstract.py,sha256=gAaspq4f67MTfs7KW6ADVU0KfPeBKySPstCqUeC7JYs,4579
 autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/ensemble_selection.py,sha256=hepycVJTtbibzTKq5Sk04L_vUuYlLFItkSybaCc_Jv8,6366
-autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/per_item_greedy.py,sha256=UlPtSBwzbzVtcf_o8HGMJDbpnWb95KcuvcS_z-AiT5k,7868
+autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/per_item_greedy.py,sha256=XaUEUO6fQD7Ck7X0882pvax5e3g55o_g8uMBnSP-c5M,7869
 autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/array_based/__init__.py,sha256=u4vGTH9gP6oATYKkxnvoiDZvc5rqfnfgrODHxIvHP7U,207
 autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/array_based/abstract.py,sha256=Oci1XEgFFTle0JF5Z8PhnMjG1iPrhhtunoKUPUPhTLw,10190
-autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/array_based/models.py,sha256=Jb_Rw944B1fG4_ZnysgpmQ-rbMUpv9MXfdj6t1xq2yY,8603
+autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/array_based/models.py,sha256=UOV3t3QH_j0AGg2y3gJIWZ5rS5tHI39z3yUJlhkEyA0,8603
 autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/array_based/regressor/__init__.py,sha256=OJPZZzowllw7Ks0aXF8Hye1_1Ql8XhRfdtv3e3A_4AE,424
 autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/array_based/regressor/abstract.py,sha256=MSeYWwxH1mL3lrsHbDpzAg61Bovs2Fxkxl3qzj5QrXE,2771
 autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/array_based/regressor/linear_stacker.py,sha256=4rUYEXcyyZ8hPITzg1tSDWmHSGfwqrTp5dd-b7MP5Hs,7245
@@ -45,16 +45,16 @@ autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/array_based/regressor/tabular.py,sha256=prH
 autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/weighted/__init__.py,sha256=_LipTsDnYvTFmjZWsb1Vrm-eALsVVfUlF2gOpcaqE2Q,206
 autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/weighted/abstract.py,sha256=meGVoSfPOjmEwTKGRTUQJ1N9bZtpewJ217TGqKNye04,1839
 autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/weighted/basic.py,sha256=KsFcdmhkjywqSYvx9rdWoFzjLO-czKsOj3CWuC61SS4,3715
-autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/weighted/greedy.py,sha256=NN51NnrbHd7zdJs2kErm6bs-B_OcbjlkD2j2Q00IUOE,2589
+autogluon/timeseries/models/ensemble/weighted/greedy.py,sha256=ziyudzlLDPLW_vGuh2U9uZ2YH0h478mRpM3H9q7nf4M,2657
 autogluon/timeseries/models/gluonts/__init__.py,sha256=YfyNYOkhhNsloA4MAavfmqKO29_q6o4lwPoV7L4_h7M,355
 autogluon/timeseries/models/gluonts/abstract.py,sha256=qJ60DSkzSI4E1kx5RGeGBehkiMvcAVGSUXYSpZXo8nk,27699
 autogluon/timeseries/models/gluonts/dataset.py,sha256=ApR-r4o0OV4jQ2hYUppJ4yjvWX02JoHod5O4acEKiHw,5074
-autogluon/timeseries/models/gluonts/models.py,sha256=1Z3x3-jVoae5X4cSnDIgJMvTJ9_O94aDSW8HEnBaL5k,25907
+autogluon/timeseries/models/gluonts/models.py,sha256=Djb2R_2ZSK-xQ1wvFwWGXxshSQeFD9WsMLdF4yxuGnQ,25232
 autogluon/timeseries/models/local/__init__.py,sha256=TiKY7M6Foy8vtshfZiStEH58_XG62w4oF1TQYAQ1B0s,344
 autogluon/timeseries/models/local/abstract_local_model.py,sha256=7pbyE4vhXgoCEcHAhxpxBVCOEG-LSrBptGwjLXd-s8o,11335
 autogluon/timeseries/models/local/naive.py,sha256=w0XuMcgcTvTUEi2iXcd6BGvyHKB-kpqbv9c9iK4pMOA,7490
 autogluon/timeseries/models/local/npts.py,sha256=mKuDsGnaYV8QkIgGR8se-1pXb2JAxzafESt2g_21ENA,4530
-autogluon/timeseries/models/local/statsforecast.py,sha256=gt9evIxlymisBlBZU7aRFtZQ3mgyX7a0xtmvFyKRXK4,33275
+autogluon/timeseries/models/local/statsforecast.py,sha256=h_WpYGAEA761ehhZv6RZXsGC-WVr4BkPh1C8xUbcKuQ,33275
 autogluon/timeseries/models/multi_window/__init__.py,sha256=Bq7AT2Jxdd4WNqmjTdzeqgNiwn1NCyWp4tBIWaM-zfI,60
 autogluon/timeseries/models/multi_window/multi_window_model.py,sha256=bv8_ux-7JXPwhbFXeBN893xQo6echCCMwqH4aEMK250,12937
 autogluon/timeseries/models/toto/__init__.py,sha256=rQaVjZJV5ZsJGC0jhQ6CA4nYeXdV1KtlyDz2i2usQnY,54
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ autogluon/timeseries/trainer/__init__.py,sha256=_tw3iioJfvtIV7wnjtEMv0yS8oabmCFx
 autogluon/timeseries/trainer/ensemble_composer.py,sha256=zGa8vocPQGsHf-7ti8DsHwjEA176FkCt7up2LwWCK4Y,19465
 autogluon/timeseries/trainer/model_set_builder.py,sha256=kROApbu10_ro-GVYlnx3oTKZj2TcNswWbOFB1QyBCOc,10737
 autogluon/timeseries/trainer/prediction_cache.py,sha256=KKs22UUGrVfQN_81IgzL7Bfc8tjWk3k6YW3uHURaSs0,5496
-autogluon/timeseries/trainer/trainer.py,sha256=igUml9D4eXOq_fryhQquU2tnl8hyrdUTzdqUz0IJ6Ig,56308
+autogluon/timeseries/trainer/trainer.py,sha256=vraCZtARPV3gNHlhktmDlbTr8Mn59H-JOIaXAdpTDw8,56057
 autogluon/timeseries/trainer/utils.py,sha256=7N4vRP6GFUlRAahxQ9PqppdIMFqMz3wpZ5u-_onR24M,588
 autogluon/timeseries/transforms/__init__.py,sha256=fKlT4pkJ_8Gl7IUTc3uSDzt2Xow5iH5w6fPB3ePNrTg,127
 autogluon/timeseries/transforms/covariate_scaler.py,sha256=CpTtokiE1uEg_RJa4kEUUuBwXZpPL11OC2fgCkRpGlQ,6986
@@ -93,11 +93,11 @@ autogluon/timeseries/utils/datetime/base.py,sha256=3NdsH3NDq4cVAOSoy3XpaNixyNlbj
 autogluon/timeseries/utils/datetime/lags.py,sha256=dijskkPDJXhXbRHGQZPhUFuEom3typKbOeET7cxkHGY,5965
 autogluon/timeseries/utils/datetime/seasonality.py,sha256=-w3bULdkIZKP-JrO1ahHLyNCanLhejocHlasZShuwA0,802
 autogluon/timeseries/utils/datetime/time_features.py,sha256=kEOFls4Nzh8nO0Pcz1DwLsC_NA3hMI4JUlZI3kuvuts,2666
-autogluon_timeseries-1.4.1b20251215.dist-info/licenses/LICENSE,sha256=CeipvOyAZxBGUsFoaFqwkx54aPnIKEtm9a5u2uXxEws,10142
-autogluon_timeseries-1.4.1b20251215.dist-info/licenses/NOTICE,sha256=7nPQuj8Kp-uXsU0S5so3-2dNU5EctS5hDXvvzzehd7E,114
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