alberta-framework 0.1.0__py3-none-any.whl

alberta_framework/utils/statistics.py

@@ -0,0 +1,527 @@
+"""Statistical analysis utilities for publication-quality experiments.
+
+Provides functions for computing confidence intervals, significance tests,
+effect sizes, and multiple comparison corrections.
+"""
+
+from typing import TYPE_CHECKING, NamedTuple
+
+import numpy as np
+from numpy.typing import NDArray
+
+if TYPE_CHECKING:
+    from alberta_framework.utils.experiments import AggregatedResults
+
+
+class StatisticalSummary(NamedTuple):
+    """Summary statistics for a set of values.
+
+    Attributes:
+        mean: Arithmetic mean
+        std: Standard deviation
+        sem: Standard error of the mean
+        ci_lower: Lower bound of confidence interval
+        ci_upper: Upper bound of confidence interval
+        median: Median value
+        iqr: Interquartile range
+        n_seeds: Number of samples
+    """
+
+    mean: float
+    std: float
+    sem: float
+    ci_lower: float
+    ci_upper: float
+    median: float
+    iqr: float
+    n_seeds: int
+
+
+class SignificanceResult(NamedTuple):
+    """Result of a statistical significance test.
+
+    Attributes:
+        test_name: Name of the test performed
+        statistic: Test statistic value
+        p_value: P-value of the test
+        significant: Whether the result is significant at the given alpha
+        alpha: Significance level used
+        effect_size: Effect size (e.g., Cohen's d)
+        method_a: Name of first method
+        method_b: Name of second method
+    """
+
+    test_name: str
+    statistic: float
+    p_value: float
+    significant: bool
+    alpha: float
+    effect_size: float
+    method_a: str
+    method_b: str
+
+
+def compute_statistics(
+    values: NDArray[np.float64] | list[float],
+    confidence_level: float = 0.95,
+) -> StatisticalSummary:
+    """Compute comprehensive statistics for a set of values.
+
+    Args:
+        values: Array of values (e.g., final performance across seeds)
+        confidence_level: Confidence level for CI (default 0.95)
+
+    Returns:
+        StatisticalSummary with all statistics
+    """
+    arr = np.asarray(values)
+    n = len(arr)
+
+    mean = float(np.mean(arr))
+    std = float(np.std(arr, ddof=1)) if n > 1 else 0.0
+    sem = std / np.sqrt(n) if n > 1 else 0.0
+    median = float(np.median(arr))
+    q75, q25 = np.percentile(arr, [75, 25])
+    iqr = float(q75 - q25)
+
+    # Compute confidence interval
+    try:
+        from scipy import stats
+
+        if n > 1:
+            t_value = float(stats.t.ppf((1 + confidence_level) / 2, n - 1))
+            margin = t_value * sem
+            ci_lower = mean - margin
+            ci_upper = mean + margin
+        else:
+            ci_lower = ci_upper = mean
+    except ImportError:
+        # Fallback without scipy: use normal approximation
+        z_value = 1.96 if confidence_level == 0.95 else 2.576  # 95% or 99%
+        margin = z_value * sem
+        ci_lower = mean - margin
+        ci_upper = mean + margin
+
+    return StatisticalSummary(
+        mean=mean,
+        std=std,
+        sem=sem,
+        ci_lower=float(ci_lower),
+        ci_upper=float(ci_upper),
+        median=median,
+        iqr=iqr,
+        n_seeds=n,
+    )
+
+
+def compute_timeseries_statistics(
+    metric_array: NDArray[np.float64],
+    confidence_level: float = 0.95,
+) -> tuple[NDArray[np.float64], NDArray[np.float64], NDArray[np.float64]]:
+    """Compute mean and confidence intervals for timeseries data.
+
+    Args:
+        metric_array: Array of shape (n_seeds, n_steps)
+        confidence_level: Confidence level for CI
+
+    Returns:
+        Tuple of (mean, ci_lower, ci_upper) arrays of shape (n_steps,)
+    """
+    n_seeds = metric_array.shape[0]
+    mean = np.mean(metric_array, axis=0)
+    std = np.std(metric_array, axis=0, ddof=1)
+    sem = std / np.sqrt(n_seeds)
+
+    try:
+        from scipy import stats
+
+        t_value = stats.t.ppf((1 + confidence_level) / 2, n_seeds - 1)
+    except ImportError:
+        t_value = 1.96 if confidence_level == 0.95 else 2.576
+
+    margin = t_value * sem
+    ci_lower = mean - margin
+    ci_upper = mean + margin
+
+    return mean, ci_lower, ci_upper
+
+
+def cohens_d(
+    values_a: NDArray[np.float64] | list[float],
+    values_b: NDArray[np.float64] | list[float],
+) -> float:
+    """Compute Cohen's d effect size.
+
+    Args:
+        values_a: Values for first group
+        values_b: Values for second group
+
+    Returns:
+        Cohen's d (positive means a > b)
+    """
+    a = np.asarray(values_a)
+    b = np.asarray(values_b)
+
+    mean_a = np.mean(a)
+    mean_b = np.mean(b)
+
+    n_a = len(a)
+    n_b = len(b)
+
+    # Pooled standard deviation
+    var_a = np.var(a, ddof=1) if n_a > 1 else 0.0
+    var_b = np.var(b, ddof=1) if n_b > 1 else 0.0
+
+    pooled_std = np.sqrt(((n_a - 1) * var_a + (n_b - 1) * var_b) / (n_a + n_b - 2))
+
+    if pooled_std == 0:
+        return 0.0
+
+    return float((mean_a - mean_b) / pooled_std)
+
+
+def ttest_comparison(
+    values_a: NDArray[np.float64] | list[float],
+    values_b: NDArray[np.float64] | list[float],
+    paired: bool = True,
+    alpha: float = 0.05,
+    method_a: str = "A",
+    method_b: str = "B",
+) -> SignificanceResult:
+    """Perform t-test comparison between two methods.
+
+    Args:
+        values_a: Values for first method
+        values_b: Values for second method
+        paired: Whether to use paired t-test (default True for same seeds)
+        alpha: Significance level
+        method_a: Name of first method
+        method_b: Name of second method
+
+    Returns:
+        SignificanceResult with test results
+    """
+    a = np.asarray(values_a)
+    b = np.asarray(values_b)
+
+    try:
+        from scipy import stats
+
+        if paired:
+            result = stats.ttest_rel(a, b)
+            test_name = "paired t-test"
+        else:
+            result = stats.ttest_ind(a, b)
+            test_name = "independent t-test"
+        # scipy returns (statistic, pvalue) tuple
+        stat_val = float(result[0])
+        p_val = float(result[1])
+    except ImportError:
+        raise ImportError("scipy is required for t-test. Install with: pip install scipy")
+
+    effect = cohens_d(a, b)
+
+    return SignificanceResult(
+        test_name=test_name,
+        statistic=stat_val,
+        p_value=p_val,
+        significant=p_val < alpha,
+        alpha=alpha,
+        effect_size=effect,
+        method_a=method_a,
+        method_b=method_b,
+    )
+
+
+def mann_whitney_comparison(
+    values_a: NDArray[np.float64] | list[float],
+    values_b: NDArray[np.float64] | list[float],
+    alpha: float = 0.05,
+    method_a: str = "A",
+    method_b: str = "B",
+) -> SignificanceResult:
+    """Perform Mann-Whitney U test (non-parametric).
+
+    Args:
+        values_a: Values for first method
+        values_b: Values for second method
+        alpha: Significance level
+        method_a: Name of first method
+        method_b: Name of second method
+
+    Returns:
+        SignificanceResult with test results
+    """
+    a = np.asarray(values_a)
+    b = np.asarray(values_b)
+
+    try:
+        from scipy import stats
+
+        result = stats.mannwhitneyu(a, b, alternative="two-sided")
+        # scipy returns (statistic, pvalue) tuple
+        stat_val = float(result[0])
+        p_val = float(result[1])
+    except ImportError:
+        raise ImportError(
+            "scipy is required for Mann-Whitney test. Install with: pip install scipy"
+        )
+
+    # Compute rank-biserial correlation as effect size
+    n_a, n_b = len(a), len(b)
+    r = 1 - (2 * stat_val) / (n_a * n_b)
+
+    return SignificanceResult(
+        test_name="Mann-Whitney U",
+        statistic=stat_val,
+        p_value=p_val,
+        significant=p_val < alpha,
+        alpha=alpha,
+        effect_size=r,
+        method_a=method_a,
+        method_b=method_b,
+    )
+
+
+def wilcoxon_comparison(
+    values_a: NDArray[np.float64] | list[float],
+    values_b: NDArray[np.float64] | list[float],
+    alpha: float = 0.05,
+    method_a: str = "A",
+    method_b: str = "B",
+) -> SignificanceResult:
+    """Perform Wilcoxon signed-rank test (paired non-parametric).
+
+    Args:
+        values_a: Values for first method
+        values_b: Values for second method
+        alpha: Significance level
+        method_a: Name of first method
+        method_b: Name of second method
+
+    Returns:
+        SignificanceResult with test results
+    """
+    a = np.asarray(values_a)
+    b = np.asarray(values_b)
+
+    try:
+        from scipy import stats
+
+        result = stats.wilcoxon(a, b, alternative="two-sided")
+        # scipy returns (statistic, pvalue) tuple
+        stat_val = float(result[0])
+        p_val = float(result[1])
+    except ImportError:
+        raise ImportError(
+            "scipy is required for Wilcoxon test. Install with: pip install scipy"
+        )
+
+    effect = cohens_d(a, b)
+
+    return SignificanceResult(
+        test_name="Wilcoxon signed-rank",
+        statistic=stat_val,
+        p_value=p_val,
+        significant=p_val < alpha,
+        alpha=alpha,
+        effect_size=effect,
+        method_a=method_a,
+        method_b=method_b,
+    )
+
+
+def bonferroni_correction(
+    p_values: list[float],
+    alpha: float = 0.05,
+) -> tuple[list[bool], float]:
+    """Apply Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons.
+
+    Args:
+        p_values: List of p-values from multiple tests
+        alpha: Family-wise significance level
+
+    Returns:
+        Tuple of (list of significant booleans, corrected alpha)
+    """
+    n_tests = len(p_values)
+    corrected_alpha = alpha / n_tests
+    significant = [p < corrected_alpha for p in p_values]
+    return significant, corrected_alpha
+
+
+def holm_correction(
+    p_values: list[float],
+    alpha: float = 0.05,
+) -> list[bool]:
+    """Apply Holm-Bonferroni step-down correction.
+
+    More powerful than Bonferroni while still controlling FWER.
+
+    Args:
+        p_values: List of p-values from multiple tests
+        alpha: Family-wise significance level
+
+    Returns:
+        List of significant booleans
+    """
+    n_tests = len(p_values)
+
+    # Sort p-values and track original indices
+    sorted_indices = np.argsort(p_values)
+    sorted_p = [p_values[i] for i in sorted_indices]
+
+    # Apply Holm correction
+    significant_sorted = []
+    for i, p in enumerate(sorted_p):
+        corrected_alpha = alpha / (n_tests - i)
+        if p < corrected_alpha:
+            significant_sorted.append(True)
+        else:
+            # Once we fail to reject, all subsequent are not significant
+            significant_sorted.extend([False] * (n_tests - i))
+            break
+
+    # Restore original order
+    significant = [False] * n_tests
+    for orig_idx, sig in zip(sorted_indices, significant_sorted, strict=False):
+        significant[orig_idx] = sig
+
+    return significant
+
+
+def pairwise_comparisons(
+    results: "dict[str, AggregatedResults]",  # noqa: F821
+    metric: str = "squared_error",
+    test: str = "ttest",
+    correction: str = "bonferroni",
+    alpha: float = 0.05,
+    window: int = 100,
+) -> dict[tuple[str, str], SignificanceResult]:
+    """Perform all pairwise comparisons between methods.
+
+    Args:
+        results: Dictionary mapping config name to AggregatedResults
+        metric: Metric to compare
+        test: Test to use ("ttest", "mann_whitney", or "wilcoxon")
+        correction: Multiple comparison correction ("bonferroni" or "holm")
+        alpha: Significance level
+        window: Number of final steps to average
+
+    Returns:
+        Dictionary mapping (method_a, method_b) to SignificanceResult
+    """
+    from alberta_framework.utils.experiments import AggregatedResults
+
+    names = list(results.keys())
+    n = len(names)
+
+    if n < 2:
+        return {}
+
+    # Extract final values for each method
+    final_values: dict[str, NDArray[np.float64]] = {}
+    for name, agg in results.items():
+        if not isinstance(agg, AggregatedResults):
+            raise TypeError(f"Expected AggregatedResults, got {type(agg)}")
+        arr = agg.metric_arrays[metric]
+        final_window = min(window, arr.shape[1])
+        final_values[name] = np.mean(arr[:, -final_window:], axis=1)
+
+    if test not in ("ttest", "mann_whitney", "wilcoxon"):
+        raise ValueError(f"Unknown test: {test}")
+
+    # Perform all pairwise comparisons
+    comparisons: dict[tuple[str, str], SignificanceResult] = {}
+    p_values: list[float] = []
+
+    for i in range(n):
+        for j in range(i + 1, n):
+            name_a, name_b = names[i], names[j]
+            values_a = final_values[name_a]
+            values_b = final_values[name_b]
+
+            if test == "ttest":
+                result = ttest_comparison(
+                    values_a, values_b, paired=True, alpha=alpha,
+                    method_a=name_a, method_b=name_b,
+                )
+            elif test == "mann_whitney":
+                result = mann_whitney_comparison(
+                    values_a, values_b, alpha=alpha,
+                    method_a=name_a, method_b=name_b,
+                )
+            else:  # wilcoxon
+                result = wilcoxon_comparison(
+                    values_a, values_b, alpha=alpha,
+                    method_a=name_a, method_b=name_b,
+                )
+
+            comparisons[(name_a, name_b)] = result
+            p_values.append(result.p_value)
+
+    # Apply multiple comparison correction
+    if correction == "bonferroni":
+        significant_list, _ = bonferroni_correction(p_values, alpha)
+    elif correction == "holm":
+        significant_list = holm_correction(p_values, alpha)
+    else:
+        raise ValueError(f"Unknown correction: {correction}")
+
+    # Update significance based on correction
+    corrected_comparisons: dict[tuple[str, str], SignificanceResult] = {}
+    for (key, result), sig in zip(comparisons.items(), significant_list, strict=False):
+        corrected_comparisons[key] = SignificanceResult(
+            test_name=f"{result.test_name} ({correction})",
+            statistic=result.statistic,
+            p_value=result.p_value,
+            significant=sig,
+            alpha=alpha,
+            effect_size=result.effect_size,
+            method_a=result.method_a,
+            method_b=result.method_b,
+        )
+
+    return corrected_comparisons
+
+
+def bootstrap_ci(
+    values: NDArray[np.float64] | list[float],
+    statistic: str = "mean",
+    confidence_level: float = 0.95,
+    n_bootstrap: int = 10000,
+    seed: int = 42,
+) -> tuple[float, float, float]:
+    """Compute bootstrap confidence interval.
+
+    Args:
+        values: Array of values
+        statistic: Statistic to bootstrap ("mean" or "median")
+        confidence_level: Confidence level
+        n_bootstrap: Number of bootstrap samples
+        seed: Random seed
+
+    Returns:
+        Tuple of (point_estimate, ci_lower, ci_upper)
+    """
+    arr = np.asarray(values)
+    rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
+
+    stat_func = np.mean if statistic == "mean" else np.median
+    point_estimate = float(stat_func(arr))
+
+    # Generate bootstrap samples
+    bootstrap_stats_list: list[float] = []
+    for _ in range(n_bootstrap):
+        sample = rng.choice(arr, size=len(arr), replace=True)
+        bootstrap_stats_list.append(float(stat_func(sample)))
+
+    bootstrap_stats = np.array(bootstrap_stats_list)
+
+    # Percentile method
+    lower_percentile = (1 - confidence_level) / 2 * 100
+    upper_percentile = (1 + confidence_level) / 2 * 100
+    ci_lower = float(np.percentile(bootstrap_stats, lower_percentile))
+    ci_upper = float(np.percentile(bootstrap_stats, upper_percentile))
+
+    return point_estimate, ci_lower, ci_upper

alberta_framework/utils/timing.py

@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
+"""Timing utilities for measuring and reporting experiment durations.
+
+This module provides a simple Timer context manager for measuring execution time
+and formatting durations in a human-readable format.
+
+Example:
+    >>> from alberta_framework.utils.timing import Timer
+    >>>
+    >>> with Timer("Training"):
+    ...     # run training code
+    ...     pass
+    Training completed in 1.23s
+    >>>
+    >>> # Or capture the duration:
+    >>> with Timer("Experiment") as t:
+    ...     # run experiment
+    ...     pass
+    >>> print(f"Took {t.duration:.2f} seconds")
+"""
+
+import time
+from collections.abc import Callable
+from types import TracebackType
+
+
+def format_duration(seconds: float) -> str:
+    """Format a duration in seconds as a human-readable string.
+
+    Args:
+        seconds: Duration in seconds
+
+    Returns:
+        Formatted string like "1.23s", "2m 30.5s", or "1h 5m 30s"
+
+    Examples:
+        >>> format_duration(0.5)
+        '0.50s'
+        >>> format_duration(90.5)
+        '1m 30.50s'
+        >>> format_duration(3665)
+        '1h 1m 5.00s'
+    """
+    if seconds < 60:
+        return f"{seconds:.2f}s"
+    elif seconds < 3600:
+        minutes = int(seconds // 60)
+        secs = seconds % 60
+        return f"{minutes}m {secs:.2f}s"
+    else:
+        hours = int(seconds // 3600)
+        remaining = seconds % 3600
+        minutes = int(remaining // 60)
+        secs = remaining % 60
+        return f"{hours}h {minutes}m {secs:.2f}s"
+
+
+class Timer:
+    """Context manager for timing code execution.
+
+    Measures wall-clock time for a block of code and optionally prints
+    the duration when the block completes.
+
+    Attributes:
+        name: Description of what is being timed
+        duration: Elapsed time in seconds (available after context exits)
+        start_time: Timestamp when timing started
+        end_time: Timestamp when timing ended
+
+    Example:
+        >>> with Timer("Training loop"):
+        ...     for i in range(1000):
+        ...         pass
+        Training loop completed in 0.01s
+
+        >>> # Silent timing (no print):
+        >>> with Timer("Silent", verbose=False) as t:
+        ...     time.sleep(0.1)
+        >>> print(f"Elapsed: {t.duration:.2f}s")
+        Elapsed: 0.10s
+
+        >>> # Custom print function:
+        >>> with Timer("Custom", print_fn=lambda msg: print(f">> {msg}")):
+        ...     pass
+        >> Custom completed in 0.00s
+    """
+
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        name: str = "Operation",
+        verbose: bool = True,
+        print_fn: Callable[[str], None] | None = None,
+    ):
+        """Initialize the timer.
+
+        Args:
+            name: Description of the operation being timed
+            verbose: Whether to print the duration when done
+            print_fn: Custom print function (defaults to built-in print)
+        """
+        self.name = name
+        self.verbose = verbose
+        self.print_fn = print_fn or print
+        self.start_time: float = 0.0
+        self.end_time: float = 0.0
+        self.duration: float = 0.0
+
+    def __enter__(self) -> "Timer":
+        """Start the timer."""
+        self.start_time = time.perf_counter()
+        return self
+
+    def __exit__(
+        self,
+        exc_type: type[BaseException] | None,
+        exc_val: BaseException | None,
+        exc_tb: TracebackType | None,
+    ) -> None:
+        """Stop the timer and optionally print the duration."""
+        self.end_time = time.perf_counter()
+        self.duration = self.end_time - self.start_time
+
+        if self.verbose:
+            formatted = format_duration(self.duration)
+            self.print_fn(f"{self.name} completed in {formatted}")
+
+    def elapsed(self) -> float:
+        """Get elapsed time since timer started (can be called during execution).
+
+        Returns:
+            Elapsed time in seconds
+        """
+        return time.perf_counter() - self.start_time
+
+    def __repr__(self) -> str:
+        """Return string representation."""
+        if self.duration > 0:
+            return f"Timer(name={self.name!r}, duration={self.duration:.2f}s)"
+        return f"Timer(name={self.name!r})"