ygl-trees 0.77.3 → 0.78.0

package/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -1,5 +1,11 @@
 # Changelog
 
+## 0.78.0（2026-10-17）预测回测管线
+- **新命令** `research predict audit`：扫描 [预测·N天] 断言——deadline 解析（显式日期优先,created+horizon 推导兜底）、本地可测判据自动实测（树/kb 计数,或语义 any-hit）、npm 版本数 registry 探测（3s 超时,--offline 关闭）
+- 判定四态：hit / miss / pending（含已达标标记）/ manual（外部判据）——只报告不仲裁,给出待 resolve 命令建议
+- 修复 lifecycle 测试并行负载超时抖动（5s→20s 余量）
+- 解锁 pred-val/backtest-pipeline（能力落地即解锁）
+
 ## 0.77.3（2026-10-17）node list 位置参数 UX + 树漂移修正
 - **UX**：node list <tree> 位置参数现在真的选中该树（此前静默忽略并回退 current_tree——巡检中实际踩中）
 - 非树名位置参数给显式提示而非静默误导；-t 标志仍优先

package/README.md

@@ -125,6 +125,7 @@ evidence add    从来源摘原文片段，带 locator（页码/章节）
 claim add       写下断言
 claim link      断言 ↔ 证据，自动算 supported / refuted / contested
 claim resolve   人工仲裁出口：--as supported|refuted|contested，事件留痕；后续新证据链接会重新推导
+predict audit   预测回测：扫描 [预测·N天] 断言，本地可测判据自动测（树/kb 计数、npm 版本数），判 hit/miss/pending/manual——只报告不仲裁，给出待 resolve 建议
 ```
 
 **JSON 纪律**：写命令在 `--json` 下 stdout 只有一个 JSON 对象（重复时带 `duplicate: true`），Agent 可直接 `JSON.parse` 全量输出。

package/dist/bundle/bin.cjs

@@ -6143,6 +6143,125 @@ var init_eval_enhance = require_rolldown_runtime.__esmMin((() => {
 	init_eval();
 }));
 //#endregion
+//#region packages/research/pipeline/src/predict.ts
+var predict_exports = /* @__PURE__ */ require_rolldown_runtime.__exportAll({
+	auditPredictions: () => auditPredictions,
+	measureCriterion: () => measureCriterion,
+	measureNpmVersions: () => measureNpmVersions,
+	parsePrediction: () => parsePrediction
+});
+/** Extract `[预测·X]` horizon + deadline. Explicit `YYYY-MM-DD 前` wins;
+*  otherwise derive from claim creation date + horizon days (7天/90天). */
+function parsePrediction(text, created) {
+	const h = text.match(/\[预测·([^\]]+)\]/);
+	const horizon = h ? h[1] : "";
+	const d = text.match(/(\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2})\s*前/);
+	if (d) return {
+		horizon,
+		deadline: d[1]
+	};
+	const days = horizon.match(/(\d+)\s*天/);
+	if (days && created) {
+		const t = Date.parse(created.replace(" ", "T"));
+		if (!Number.isNaN(t)) return {
+			horizon,
+			deadline: new Date(t + +days[1] * 864e5).toISOString().slice(0, 10)
+		};
+	}
+	return {
+		horizon,
+		deadline: ""
+	};
+}
+/** Locally measurable criterion matchers. Null → manual. */
+function measureCriterion(crit, db) {
+	const tree = crit.match(/树\s*≥\s*(\d+)/);
+	const kb = crit.match(/kb\s*≥\s*(\d+)/);
+	if (!tree && !kb) return null;
+	const parts = [];
+	const hits = [];
+	if (tree) {
+		const n = db.get("SELECT COUNT(*) c FROM trees").c;
+		parts.push(`trees=${n}/${tree[1]}`);
+		hits.push(n >= +tree[1]);
+	}
+	if (kb) {
+		const n = db.get("SELECT COUNT(*) c FROM kb_notes").c;
+		parts.push(`kb=${n}/${kb[1]}`);
+		hits.push(n >= +kb[1]);
+	}
+	const hit = crit.includes(" 或 ") ? hits.some(Boolean) : hits.every(Boolean);
+	return {
+		actual: parts.join(" · "),
+		hit
+	};
+}
+/** npm version count since a date — registry probe with a hard 3s timeout,
+*  offline-safe fallback to manual. */
+async function measureNpmVersions(pkg, since, fetchImpl) {
+	try {
+		const ctl = new AbortController();
+		const t = setTimeout(() => ctl.abort(), 3e3);
+		const r = await fetchImpl(`https://registry.npmjs.org/${pkg}`, { signal: ctl.signal });
+		clearTimeout(t);
+		if (!r.ok) return null;
+		const times = (await r.json()).time || {};
+		const versions = Object.entries(times).filter(([v, ts]) => v !== "created" && v !== "modified" && String(ts) >= since).map(([v]) => v);
+		return {
+			actual: `npm versions since ${since}: ${versions.length} (${versions.slice(-3).join(",")})`,
+			hit: versions.length > 0
+		};
+	} catch {
+		return null;
+	}
+}
+async function auditPredictions(inp) {
+	const today = inp.today || (/* @__PURE__ */ new Date()).toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+	const rows = [];
+	for (const c of inp.claims) {
+		if (!c.text.startsWith("[预测·")) continue;
+		const { horizon, deadline } = parsePrediction(c.text, c.created);
+		const m = c.text.match(/\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}\s*前\s*(.+?)(?:——|$)/) || c.text.match(/\]\s*(.+?)(?:——|$)/);
+		const criterion = m ? m[1].trim() : "";
+		const daysLeft = deadline ? Math.round((Date.parse(deadline) - Date.parse(today)) / 864e5) : null;
+		let measure = measureCriterion(criterion, inp.db);
+		if (!measure && /npm 再发\s*≥\s*(\d+)\s*个版本/.test(criterion)) {
+			const need = +criterion.match(/npm 再发\s*≥\s*(\d+)/)[1];
+			const base = c.text.match(/基线\s*\S*?@?(\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2})/);
+			const since = base ? base[1] : (c.created || today).slice(0, 10);
+			if (inp.npmProbe !== false) {
+				const v = await measureNpmVersions("ygl-trees", since, inp.fetchImpl || fetch);
+				if (v) {
+					const n = +(v.actual.match(/:\s*(\d+)/) || [0, 0])[1];
+					measure = {
+						actual: `${v.actual} · need ≥${need}`,
+						hit: n >= need
+					};
+				}
+			}
+		}
+		let verdict;
+		let hint;
+		if (!measure) {
+			verdict = "manual";
+			hint = "外部世界判据——人工核验后 claim resolve";
+		} else if (daysLeft !== null && daysLeft > 0) verdict = "pending";
+		else verdict = measure.hit ? "hit" : "miss";
+		rows.push({
+			claim_id: c.id,
+			horizon,
+			deadline,
+			criterion,
+			actual: measure ? measure.actual + (verdict === "pending" && measure.hit ? " · 已达标" : "") : "—",
+			verdict,
+			days_left: daysLeft,
+			hint
+		});
+	}
+	return rows;
+}
+require_rolldown_runtime.__esmMin((() => {}));
+//#endregion
 //#region packages/research/pipeline/src/cmds.ts
 /** research group — collect → screen → extract → claim.
 *  `source fetch` is async (Node 18+ global fetch) and returns a promise.
@@ -6719,7 +6838,52 @@ function run$8(env, action, rest, args) {
 			return 1;
 		});
 	}
-	out(ctx, paint(C.dim, "  research: query add|list · source add|list|search|show|rm · evidence add|list · claim add|link|list", ctx.color));
+	if (sub === "predict") {
+		if (subAction === "audit") {
+			const claims = store.db.all("SELECT id, text, status, created FROM claims WHERE project_id=? AND text LIKE '[预测·%' ORDER BY created", [project.id]);
+			if (!claims.length) {
+				if (ctx.json) console.log("[]");
+				else out(ctx, paint(C.dim, "  no [预测·…] claims in this project", ctx.color));
+				return 0;
+			}
+			const { auditPredictions } = require_rolldown_runtime.__toCommonJS(predict_exports);
+			return (async () => {
+				const rows = await auditPredictions({
+					claims,
+					db: store.db,
+					npmProbe: args.flags.offline !== true
+				});
+				if (ctx.json) console.log(JSON.stringify(rows, null, 2));
+				else {
+					head(ctx, `prediction audit — ${project.name} (${rows.length} predictions)`);
+					table(ctx, rows, [
+						"claim",
+						"horizon",
+						"deadline",
+						"判据",
+						"实测",
+						"判定",
+						"days"
+					], [
+						"claim_id",
+						"horizon",
+						"deadline",
+						"criterion",
+						"actual",
+						"verdict",
+						"days_left"
+					]);
+					const actionable = rows.filter((r) => r.verdict === "hit" || r.verdict === "miss");
+					for (const r of actionable) out(ctx, paint(C.dim, `  → research claim resolve ${r.claim_id} --as ${r.verdict === "hit" ? "supported" : "refuted"}   # ${r.deadline} 已到`, ctx.color));
+					for (const r of rows.filter((x) => x.verdict === "manual")) out(ctx, paint(C.dim, `  · ${r.claim_id}: ${r.hint}`, ctx.color));
+				}
+				return 0;
+			})();
+		}
+		bad(ctx, "usage: research predict audit [--offline]");
+		return 2;
+	}
+	out(ctx, paint(C.dim, "  research: query add|list · source add|list|search|show|rm · evidence add|list · claim add|link|list · predict audit", ctx.color));
 	return 0;
 }
 //#endregion

package/dist/packages/research/pipeline/src/cmds.js

@@ -599,6 +599,45 @@ function run(env, action, rest, args) {
             });
         }
     }
-    (0, fmt_1.out)(ctx, (0, fmt_1.paint)(fmt_1.C.dim, "  research: query add|list · source add|list|search|show|rm · evidence add|list · claim add|link|list", ctx.color));
+    // ---------------------------------------------------------------- predict group
+    // pred-val/backtest-pipeline: deadline audit of `[预测·N天]` claims.
+    // Measures locally-measurable criteria, reports hit/miss/pending/manual —
+    // never auto-resolves (arbitration stays human, frozen contract).
+    if (sub === "predict") {
+        if (subAction === "audit") {
+            const claims = store.db.all("SELECT id, text, status, created FROM claims WHERE project_id=? AND text LIKE '[预测·%' ORDER BY created", [project.id]);
+            if (!claims.length) {
+                if (ctx.json)
+                    console.log("[]");
+                else
+                    (0, fmt_1.out)(ctx, (0, fmt_1.paint)(fmt_1.C.dim, "  no [预测·…] claims in this project", ctx.color));
+                return 0;
+            }
+            const { auditPredictions } = require("./predict");
+            return (async () => {
+                const rows = await auditPredictions({ claims, db: store.db, npmProbe: args.flags.offline !== true });
+                if (ctx.json) {
+                    console.log(JSON.stringify(rows, null, 2));
+                }
+                else {
+                    (0, fmt_1.head)(ctx, `prediction audit — ${project.name} (${rows.length} predictions)`);
+                    (0, fmt_1.table)(ctx, rows, ["claim", "horizon", "deadline", "判据", "实测", "判定", "days"], [
+                        "claim_id", "horizon", "deadline", "criterion", "actual", "verdict", "days_left",
+                    ]);
+                    const actionable = rows.filter((r) => r.verdict === "hit" || r.verdict === "miss");
+                    for (const r of actionable) {
+                        (0, fmt_1.out)(ctx, (0, fmt_1.paint)(fmt_1.C.dim, `  → research claim resolve ${r.claim_id} --as ${r.verdict === "hit" ? "supported" : "refuted"}   # ${r.deadline} 已到`, ctx.color));
+                    }
+                    for (const r of rows.filter((x) => x.verdict === "manual")) {
+                        (0, fmt_1.out)(ctx, (0, fmt_1.paint)(fmt_1.C.dim, `  · ${r.claim_id}: ${r.hint}`, ctx.color));
+                    }
+                }
+                return 0;
+            })();
+        }
+        (0, fmt_1.bad)(ctx, "usage: research predict audit [--offline]");
+        return 2;
+    }
+    (0, fmt_1.out)(ctx, (0, fmt_1.paint)(fmt_1.C.dim, "  research: query add|list · source add|list|search|show|rm · evidence add|list · claim add|link|list · predict audit", ctx.color));
     return 0;
 }

package/dist/packages/research/pipeline/src/predict.js

@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
+"use strict";
+/**
+ * Prediction backtest pipeline (spec: pred-val/backtest-pipeline).
+ *
+ * Predictions are claims whose text starts with `[预测·<horizon>]` and contains
+ * a deadline (`YYYY-MM-DD 前`) plus one or more criteria separated by ` 或 `.
+ * The audit parses those locally-measurable criteria, measures the current
+ * actual from the workspace DB (or a fast registry probe for npm counts), and
+ * reports hit / miss / pending / manual — it NEVER auto-resolves; resolution
+ * stays a human arbitration (frozen contract).
+ */
+Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
+exports.parsePrediction = parsePrediction;
+exports.measureCriterion = measureCriterion;
+exports.measureNpmVersions = measureNpmVersions;
+exports.auditPredictions = auditPredictions;
+/** Extract `[预测·X]` horizon + deadline. Explicit `YYYY-MM-DD 前` wins;
+ *  otherwise derive from claim creation date + horizon days (7天/90天). */
+function parsePrediction(text, created) {
+    const h = text.match(/\[预测·([^\]]+)\]/);
+    const horizon = h ? h[1] : "";
+    const d = text.match(/(\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2})\s*前/);
+    if (d)
+        return { horizon, deadline: d[1] };
+    const days = horizon.match(/(\d+)\s*天/);
+    if (days && created) {
+        const t = Date.parse(created.replace(" ", "T"));
+        if (!Number.isNaN(t)) {
+            return { horizon, deadline: new Date(t + +days[1] * 86400000).toISOString().slice(0, 10) };
+        }
+    }
+    return { horizon, deadline: "" };
+}
+/** Locally measurable criterion matchers. Null → manual. */
+function measureCriterion(crit, db) {
+    // 树≥N / kb≥N — workspace counts (pure local truth)
+    const tree = crit.match(/树\s*≥\s*(\d+)/);
+    const kb = crit.match(/kb\s*≥\s*(\d+)/);
+    if (!tree && !kb)
+        return null;
+    const parts = [];
+    const hits = [];
+    if (tree) {
+        const n = db.get("SELECT COUNT(*) c FROM trees").c;
+        parts.push(`trees=${n}/${tree[1]}`);
+        hits.push(n >= +tree[1]);
+    }
+    if (kb) {
+        const n = db.get("SELECT COUNT(*) c FROM kb_notes").c;
+        parts.push(`kb=${n}/${kb[1]}`);
+        hits.push(n >= +kb[1]);
+    }
+    const hasOr = crit.includes(" 或 ");
+    const hit = hasOr ? hits.some(Boolean) : hits.every(Boolean);
+    return { actual: parts.join(" · "), hit };
+}
+/** npm version count since a date — registry probe with a hard 3s timeout,
+ *  offline-safe fallback to manual. */
+async function measureNpmVersions(pkg, since, fetchImpl) {
+    try {
+        const ctl = new AbortController();
+        const t = setTimeout(() => ctl.abort(), 3000);
+        const r = await fetchImpl(`https://registry.npmjs.org/${pkg}`, { signal: ctl.signal });
+        clearTimeout(t);
+        if (!r.ok)
+            return null;
+        const meta = await r.json();
+        const times = meta.time || {};
+        const versions = Object.entries(times)
+            .filter(([v, ts]) => v !== "created" && v !== "modified" && String(ts) >= since)
+            .map(([v]) => v);
+        return { actual: `npm versions since ${since}: ${versions.length} (${versions.slice(-3).join(",")})`, hit: versions.length > 0 };
+    }
+    catch {
+        return null;
+    }
+}
+async function auditPredictions(inp) {
+    const today = inp.today || new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+    const rows = [];
+    for (const c of inp.claims) {
+        if (!c.text.startsWith("[预测·"))
+            continue;
+        const { horizon, deadline } = parsePrediction(c.text, c.created);
+        // criterion: prefer the "DATE 前" anchor; fall back to "] " (no-date texts)
+        const m = c.text.match(/\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}\s*前\s*(.+?)(?:——|$)/) || c.text.match(/\]\s*(.+?)(?:——|$)/);
+        const criterion = m ? m[1].trim() : "";
+        const daysLeft = deadline ? Math.round((Date.parse(deadline) - Date.parse(today)) / 86400000) : null;
+        let measure = measureCriterion(criterion, inp.db);
+        // npm version criterion → registry probe (opt-out for offline/tests)
+        if (!measure && /npm 再发\s*≥\s*(\d+)\s*个版本/.test(criterion)) {
+            const need = +criterion.match(/npm 再发\s*≥\s*(\d+)/)[1];
+            const base = c.text.match(/基线\s*\S*?@?(\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2})/);
+            const since = base ? base[1] : (c.created || today).slice(0, 10);
+            if (inp.npmProbe !== false) {
+                const v = await measureNpmVersions("ygl-trees", since, inp.fetchImpl || fetch);
+                if (v) {
+                    const n = +(v.actual.match(/:\s*(\d+)/) || [0, 0])[1];
+                    measure = { actual: `${v.actual} · need ≥${need}`, hit: n >= need };
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        let verdict;
+        let hint;
+        if (!measure) {
+            verdict = "manual";
+            hint = "外部世界判据——人工核验后 claim resolve";
+        }
+        else if (daysLeft !== null && daysLeft > 0)
+            verdict = "pending";
+        else
+            verdict = measure.hit ? "hit" : "miss";
+        rows.push({
+            claim_id: c.id, horizon, deadline, criterion,
+            actual: measure ? measure.actual + (verdict === "pending" && measure.hit ? " · 已达标" : "") : "—",
+            verdict, days_left: daysLeft, hint,
+        });
+    }
+    return rows;
+}

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "ygl-trees",
-  "version": "0.77.3",
+  "version": "0.78.0",
   "description": "猿光 · 科技树 — database-centric CLI for research → production → knowledge reuse, built for AI agents.",
   "type": "commonjs",
   "main": "dist/apps/cli/index.js",
@@ -26,9 +26,9 @@
     "reflect-metadata": "^0.2.2",
     "typeorm": "^1.1.2",
     "@deepseek-ai/cordis": "~4.0.5-alpha.2",
-    "@deepseek-ai/cosmokit": "~1.8.6-alpha.2",
     "@deepseek-ai/cordis-plugin-timer": "~1.1.7-alpha.2",
-    "@deepseek-ai/schemastery": "~3.18.5-alpha.2"
+    "@deepseek-ai/schemastery": "~3.18.5-alpha.2",
+    "@deepseek-ai/cosmokit": "~1.8.6-alpha.2"
   },
   "devDependencies": {
     "@types/node": "^20.0.0",