wicked-garden 12.27.0

package/skills/product/strategy/refs/frameworks.md

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+---
+phase_relevance: ["clarify", "design", "review"]
+archetype_relevance: ["*"]
+---
+# Strategic Analysis Frameworks
+
+Reference guide for business analysis frameworks used in product.
+
+## ROI Analysis
+
+### Financial Metrics
+
+**Return on Investment (ROI)**:
+```
+ROI = (Total Benefits - Total Costs) / Total Costs × 100%
+```
+
+**Payback Period**:
+```
+Payback Period = Initial Investment / Net Annual Benefit
+```
+
+**Net Present Value (NPV)**:
+```
+NPV = -Initial Investment + Σ(Annual Net Benefit / (1 + Discount Rate)^year)
+```
+
+### Cost Categories
+
+**Development Costs**:
+- Engineering hours × loaded rate
+- Design and planning
+- Testing and QA
+- Deployment
+
+**Operational Costs** (annual):
+- Infrastructure (servers, services)
+- Maintenance and updates
+- Support and documentation
+- Technical debt service
+
+**Opportunity Costs**:
+- Alternative projects forgone
+- Strategic initiatives delayed
+- Resource allocation tradeoffs
+
+### Benefit Categories
+
+**Revenue Impact**:
+- New revenue streams
+- Revenue protection (churn reduction)
+- Pricing improvements
+- Market expansion
+
+**Cost Savings**:
+- Labor automation
+- Infrastructure efficiency
+- Process improvements
+- Error reduction
+
+**Risk Mitigation**:
+- Security improvements
+- Compliance adherence
+- Technical debt reduction
+- System reliability
+
+## Value Proposition Canvas
+
+### Customer Profile
+
+**Jobs-to-be-Done**:
+- Functional jobs (tasks to complete)
+- Emotional jobs (how they want to feel)
+- Social jobs (how they want to be perceived)
+
+**Pains**:
+- Obstacles and frustrations
+- Risks and fears
+- Undesired outcomes
+
+**Gains**:
+- Desired outcomes
+- Benefits sought
+- Aspirations
+
+### Value Map
+
+**Products/Services**:
+- What we offer
+- Features and capabilities
+
+**Pain Relievers**:
+- How we reduce/eliminate pains
+- How we mitigate risks
+
+**Gain Creators**:
+- How we create desired outcomes
+- How we enable benefits
+
+### Fit Assessment
+
+**Problem-Solution Fit**:
+- Do we solve real pains?
+- Do we create desired gains?
+- Is the job getting done?
+
+**Product-Market Fit**:
+- Do customers actually buy it?
+- Is there repeatable demand?
+- Can we scale delivery?
+
+## Porter's Five Forces
+
+### 1. Competitive Rivalry
+- Number of competitors
+- Industry growth rate
+- Product differentiation
+- Switching costs
+- Exit barriers
+
+### 2. Supplier Power
+- Supplier concentration
+- Importance of volume to supplier
+- Differentiation of inputs
+- Switching costs
+
+### 3. Buyer Power
+- Buyer concentration
+- Buyer volume
+- Price sensitivity
+- Product differentiation
+
+### 4. Threat of Substitutes
+- Substitute performance
+- Switching costs
+- Buyer propensity to substitute
+
+### 5. Threat of New Entrants
+- Entry barriers (capital, expertise, network)
+- Economies of scale
+- Access to distribution
+- Regulatory requirements
+
+## SWOT Analysis
+
+### Matrix Structure
+
+|              | Helpful              | Harmful              |
+|--------------|---------------------|---------------------|
+| **Internal** | Strengths           | Weaknesses          |
+| **External** | Opportunities       | Threats             |
+
+### Strategy Development from SWOT
+
+**SO Strategies** (Strengths × Opportunities):
+- Use strengths to pursue opportunities
+- Aggressive growth strategies
+
+**WO Strategies** (Weaknesses × Opportunities):
+- Overcome weaknesses to pursue opportunities
+- Developmental strategies
+
+**ST Strategies** (Strengths × Threats):
+- Use strengths to avoid threats
+- Defensive strategies
+
+**WT Strategies** (Weaknesses × Threats):
+- Minimize weaknesses and avoid threats
+- Survival strategies
+
+## Technology Adoption Lifecycle
+
+| Segment | % | Characteristics |
+|---|---|---|
+| Innovators | 2.5% | Enthusiasts, high risk tolerance, small market |
+| Early Adopters | 13.5% | Visionaries, willing to pay premium, reference customers |
+| Early Majority | 34% | Pragmatists, need proven solutions, large market |
+| Late Majority | 34% | Conservatives, price sensitive, commodity expectations |
+| Laggards | 16% | Skeptics, resist change, forced adoption |
+
+**The Chasm**: Critical transition between Early Adopters and Early Majority — different buying criteria, requires whole product and beachhead strategy.
+
+## TAM/SAM/SOM Framework
+
+### Total Addressable Market (TAM)
+- Maximum revenue if 100% market share
+- All potential customers globally
+- Top-down: Industry size × relevant percentage
+- Bottom-up: All potential customers × ARPU
+
+### Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM)
+- Portion we can realistically serve
+- Geographic/capability constraints
+- Our business model limitations
+- TAM × percentage we can serve
+
+### Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)
+- What we can capture in 1-3 years
+- Given competition and resources
+- Realistic market share
+- Near-term revenue target
+
+### Calculation Methods
+
+**Top-Down**:
+1. Start with total market size
+2. Apply filters (geography, segment, etc.)
+3. Calculate addressable portion
+
+**Bottom-Up**:
+1. Count target customers
+2. Estimate conversion rate
+3. Calculate average revenue per customer
+4. Multiply: Customers × Conversion × ARPU
+
+## Competitive Positioning
+
+### Positioning Strategies
+
+**Cost Leadership**:
+- Lowest cost producer
+- High volume, low margin
+- Process excellence
+- Economies of scale
+
+**Differentiation**:
+- Unique features/benefits
+- Premium pricing
+- Innovation focus
+- Brand strength
+
+**Focus/Niche**:
+- Specific segment
+- Specialized expertise
+- Deep customer understanding
+- Segment dominance
+
+**Blue Ocean**:
+- Create new market space
+- Make competition irrelevant
+- Innovate on value
+- Breakthrough thinking
+
+### Differentiation Axes
+
+- Performance (better/faster/stronger)
+- Experience (easier/simpler/delightful)
+- Price (cheaper/better value)
+- Niche (specialized/customized)
+- Innovation (novel/unique approach)
+
+## Value Scoring Framework
+
+### Five Dimensions (1-5 each)
+
+**Clarity**: Is the value obvious?
+- 5: Crystal clear
+- 3: Somewhat clear
+- 1: Very unclear
+
+**Relevance**: Does target customer care?
+- 5: Critical need
+- 3: Moderate need
+- 1: Not solving real problem
+
+**Differentiation**: Is it unique/better?
+- 5: Unique and defensible
+- 3: Some differentiation
+- 1: No clear differentiation
+
+**Credibility**: Is it believable/provable?
+- 5: Highly credible
+- 3: Somewhat credible
+- 1: Not believable
+
+**Defensibility**: Can we sustain this?
+- 5: Highly defensible
+- 3: Some defensibility
+- 1: Easily copied
+
+### Total Score Interpretation
+
+- **20-25**: Strong value proposition
+- **15-19**: Solid, may need refinement
+- **10-14**: Weak, needs rework
+- **< 10**: Not viable
+
+## Market Maturity Stages
+
+| Stage | Characteristics | Risk/Opportunity |
+|---|---|---|
+| Emerging (0-2y) | Few solutions, high uncertainty | Market may not materialize |
+| Growing (2-5y) | Clear need, standards forming | Capture share early |
+| Mature (5y+) | Dominant players, commoditization | Differentiation harder |
+| Declining | Disrupted, shrinking investment | Avoid unless niche play |

package/skills/product/strategy/refs/templates-competitive-market.md

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+---
+phase_relevance: ["clarify", "design", "review"]
+archetype_relevance: ["*"]
+---
+# Strategic Analysis Templates: Competitive & Market Analysis
+
+Competitive analysis, market analysis, and quick decision templates for business strategy.
+
+## Competitive Analysis Template
+
+```markdown
+## Competitive Analysis: {Market/Category}
+
+### Competitive Position: LEADER | CHALLENGER | FOLLOWER | NICHE
+**Strategic Stance**: {Head-to-head | Differentiation | Niche | Blue Ocean}
+**Analysis Date**: {date}
+
+### Competitive Landscape
+
+**Market Characteristics**:
+- Market Size: ${size}
+- Growth Rate: {%}
+- Maturity Stage: {Emerging | Growing | Mature | Declining}
+
+**Competitive Set**:
+- Direct Competitors: {count} ({names})
+- Indirect Competitors: {count} ({names})
+- Substitutes: {alternatives}
+
+### Five Forces Assessment
+
+| Force | Intensity | Impact on Profitability | Trend |
+|-------|-----------|------------------------|-------|
+| Competitive Rivalry | H/M/L | {how it affects us} | ↑/→/↓ |
+| Supplier Power | H/M/L | {how it affects us} | ↑/→/↓ |
+| Buyer Power | H/M/L | {how it affects us} | ↑/→/↓ |
+| Threat of Substitutes | H/M/L | {how it affects us} | ↑/→/↓ |
+| Threat of New Entrants | H/M/L | {how it affects us} | ↑/→/↓ |
+
+**Overall Market Attractiveness**: {ATTRACTIVE | NEUTRAL | UNATTRACTIVE}
+
+**Key Insights**:
+- {insight from five forces}
+
+### Competitive Matrix
+
+| Competitor | Strengths | Weaknesses | Position | Price | Share | Trend |
+|------------|-----------|------------|----------|-------|-------|-------|
+| **Us** | {strengths} | {weaknesses} | {position} | ${price} | {%} | ↑/→/↓ |
+| Competitor A | {strengths} | {weaknesses} | {position} | ${price} | {%} | ↑/→/↓ |
+| Competitor B | {strengths} | {weaknesses} | {position} | ${price} | {%} | ↑/→/↓ |
+
+### Feature Comparison
+
+| Feature | Category | Us | Comp A | Comp B | Importance |
+|---------|----------|-----|--------|--------|------------|
+| {feature} | {cat} | ✓/✗/◐ | ✓/✗/◐ | ✓/✗/◐ | H/M/L |
+
+Legend: ✓ = Full, ◐ = Partial, ✗ = None
+
+### SWOT Analysis
+
+**STRENGTHS** (Internal, Positive):
+- {internal advantage we have}
+- {capability or resource strength}
+
+**WEAKNESSES** (Internal, Negative):
+- {internal limitation}
+- {gap vs competitors}
+
+**OPPORTUNITIES** (External, Positive):
+- {market trend favoring us}
+- {unmet customer need}
+
+**THREATS** (External, Negative):
+- {competitive threat}
+- {market shift risk}
+
+### Positioning Map
+
+```
+        {Axis 1 High (e.g., Performance)}
+                    |
+                    | [Comp A]
+                    |
+{Axis 2 Low} -------+------- {Axis 2 High}
+     (e.g., Price)  |     (e.g., Price)
+                    | [Us]
+                    | [Comp B]
+        {Axis 1 Low (e.g., Performance)}
+```
+
+**White Space**: {Underserved segments or positioning gaps}
+
+### Win/Loss Analysis
+
+**We Win When**:
+- {criteria that tilts decisions toward us}
+- {objection we overcome well}
+
+**We Lose When**:
+- {criteria that tilts decisions away}
+- {objection we can't overcome}
+
+**Win Rate**: {%} ({sample size})
+
+### Strategic Recommendations
+
+**Immediate Actions** (0-3 months):
+1. {action} - {why} - {owner}
+2. {action} - {why} - {owner}
+
+**Medium-term Moves** (3-12 months):
+1. {initiative} - {rationale}
+2. {initiative} - {rationale}
+
+**Positioning Focus**:
+- **Where to compete**: {market segment or category}
+- **How to differentiate**: {key differentiator}
+- **What to emphasize**: {messaging focus}
+
+**Competitive Risks & Mitigation**:
+| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
+|------|-------------|--------|------------|
+| {threat} | H/M/L | H/M/L | {strategy} |
+
+**Opportunities to Exploit**:
+| Opportunity | Window | Action Required |
+|-------------|--------|-----------------|
+| {gap or weakness} | {timeframe} | {how to capitalize} |
+```
+
+## Market Analysis Template
+
+```markdown
+## Market Analysis: {Market/Category}
+
+### Market Attractiveness: {X}/25
+**Assessment**: HIGHLY ATTRACTIVE | ATTRACTIVE | NEUTRAL | UNATTRACTIVE
+**Analysis Date**: {date}
+
+### Market Sizing
+
+**TAM** (Total Addressable Market): ${amount}
+- Definition: {what market we're measuring}
+- Method: {Top-down | Bottom-up}
+- Calculation: {formula used}
+
+**SAM** (Serviceable Addressable Market): ${amount}
+- Definition: {portion we can serve}
+- Constraints: {geographic, capability, etc.}
+- Percentage of TAM: {%}
+
+**SOM** (Serviceable Obtainable Market): ${amount}
+- Definition: {realistic 1-3yr target}
+- Assumptions: {market share, conversion rate}
+- Percentage of SAM: {%}
+
+**Sizing Confidence**: {HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW}
+- Sources: {data sources used}
+- Assumptions: {key assumptions}
+
+### Customer Segmentation
+
+| Segment | Size ($) | Growth | Fit | Access | Priority |
+|---------|----------|--------|-----|--------|----------|
+| {segment} | ${size} | {%/yr} | H/M/L | H/M/L | P{n} |
+
+**Primary Target Segment**: {segment name}
+- **Why**: {rationale for priority}
+- **Characteristics**: {key attributes}
+- **Needs**: {primary needs}
+- **Approach**: {go-to-market strategy}
+
+**Secondary Segments**: {segments to pursue next}
+
+### Adoption Forecast
+
+**Market Maturity**: {Emerging | Growing | Mature | Declining}
+**Current Adopter Stage**: {Innovators | Early Adopters | Early Majority | Late Majority}
+
+**Adoption Curve Position**:
+```
+[Diagram or description of where market is on adoption curve]
+```
+
+**Penetration Forecast**:
+| Year | Target Adopters | Customers | Penetration | Revenue |
+|------|-----------------|-----------|-------------|---------|
+| Y1 | {stage} | {count} | {%} | ${amount} |
+| Y2 | {stage} | {count} | {%} | ${amount} |
+| Y3 | {stage} | {count} | {%} | ${amount} |
+
+**Adoption Accelerators**:
+- {factor driving faster adoption}
+- {factor driving faster adoption}
+
+**Adoption Barriers**:
+- {factor slowing adoption}
+- {factor slowing adoption}
+
+### Market Trends
+
+**Key Trends**:
+| Trend | Type | Probability | Impact | Timing | Our Response |
+|-------|------|-------------|--------|--------|--------------|
+| {trend} | Tech/Market/Regulatory/Economic | H/M/L | H/M/L | {years} | {action} |
+
+**Trend Implications**:
+- {how trend affects our strategy}
+- {opportunity or threat}
+
+### Timing Assessment
+
+**Market Timing**: TOO EARLY | RIGHT TIME | TOO LATE | WRONG TIME
+
+**Rationale**:
+{Why this is/isn't the right time based on:}
+- Problem recognition: {level}
+- Solution awareness: {level}
+- Infrastructure readiness: {level}
+- Competitive landscape: {state}
+
+**Timing Risks**:
+- {risk if too early}
+- {risk if too late}
+
+**Windows of Opportunity**:
+- Primary window: {timeframe and why}
+- Secondary window: {timeframe and why}
+
+### Market Attractiveness Score
+
+| Factor | Score (1-5) | Weight | Weighted | Rationale |
+|--------|-------------|--------|----------|-----------|
+| Size | {score} | 20% | {calc} | {why} |
+| Growth | {score} | 25% | {calc} | {why} |
+| Margins | {score} | 20% | {calc} | {why} |
+| Competition | {score} | 20% | {calc} | {why} |
+| Access | {score} | 15% | {calc} | {why} |
+| **TOTAL** | | **100%** | **{/5}** | |
+
+### Go-to-Market Recommendations
+
+**Market Entry Strategy**: {Beachhead | Bowling Pin | Platform | etc.}
+
+**Target Segment Priority**:
+1. {segment} - {approach} - {rationale}
+2. {segment} - {approach} - {rationale}
+
+**Key Success Factors**:
+- {what must go right for market success}
+- {critical capability or resource}
+
+**Market Entry Risks**:
+| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
+|------|-----------|--------|------------|
+| {risk} | H/M/L | H/M/L | {strategy} |
+
+**Red Flags to Monitor**:
+- {warning sign that would change assessment}
+- {metric to track}
+
+**Next Steps**:
+1. {validation activity}
+2. {market research needed}
+3. {decision to make}
+```
+
+## Quick Decision Template
+
+For fast strategic decisions:
+
+```markdown
+## Quick Strategic Check: {Decision}
+
+**Decision**: {What are we deciding?}
+**Timeframe**: {When do we need to decide?}
+
+### 3-Bullet Assessment
+
+**Business Case**:
+- ROI: {quick estimate} | Payback: {timeframe}
+
+**Strategic Fit**:
+- {How this aligns with strategy}
+
+**Risk Level**: {LOW | MEDIUM | HIGH}
+- {Primary risk}
+
+### Recommendation: APPROVE | CONDITIONAL | REJECT
+
+**Why**: {One sentence rationale}
+
+**Conditions** (if any):
+- {Condition to meet}
+
+**Next Step**: {Immediate action}
+```