vibebusiness 1.2.87 → 1.2.89

package/.next/standalone/data/hypotheses.json

@@ -1,269 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "hypotheses": [
-    {
-      "id": "hyp-10x-moment",
-      "created_at": "2026-02-18T00:00:00.000Z",
-      "updated_at": "2026-02-19T19:31:25.151Z",
-      "title": "The 10x Moment in Under 5 Minutes Drives Conversion",
-      "statement": "If the first vibe cycle produces a specific, actionable business recommendation the founder didn't already know — in under 60 seconds — then D7 retention will exceed 40% and free-to-paid conversion will exceed 11.7%.",
-      "description": "The single highest-leverage product bet. The first-run experience must feel like a senior advisor just reviewed the entire business. Not generic advice, but recommendations grounded in actual codebase, actual metrics, actual goals. This creates the 'story worth telling' — the tweet that says 'I just ran one command and got a better analysis than a $5K consultant.'",
-      "funnel_stage": "activation",
-      "priority": "critical",
-      "status": "stated",
-      "evidence_for": [
-        "Cursor achieved $4M→$50M ARR in 7 months with Cmd+K and codebase indexing — two 'magic moments'",
-        "Supabase's 'spin up a production database in 30 seconds' created explosive word-of-mouth",
-        "Apps with time-to-first-value under 3 minutes see ~2x higher retention",
-        "Developer tools Day 1 retention benchmark is 25-30%; 2x for fast time-to-value"
-      ],
-      "evidence_against": [
-        "Current first-run experience requires manual setup — not yet under 60 seconds",
-        "Quality of first recommendation depends heavily on available context (bare codebase vs rich project)"
-      ],
-      "validation_criteria": [
-        "Measure time from npx vibebusiness to first actionable recommendation (target: <60 seconds)",
-        "Track D7 retention among users who complete first vibe cycle (target: >40%)",
-        "Track free-to-paid conversion among users who experienced 10x moment (target: >11.7%)",
-        "Collect qualitative feedback: 'Was this recommendation something you didn't already know?'"
-      ],
-      "validation_ideas": [
-        "idea-3b117679",
-        "idea-37e82b41",
-        "idea-13892dc2",
-        "idea-21f18d48",
-        "idea-6414baaa",
-        "idea-57b687b0",
-        "idea-ac64b9f5",
-        "idea-8e38d06e"
-      ],
-      "reference_model": "Activation (AARRR) — Time-to-value optimization, 'aha moment' identification",
-      "effort_to_test": "l",
-      "tags": [
-        "activation",
-        "retention",
-        "conversion",
-        "first-run",
-        "critical-bet"
-      ]
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "hyp-indie-hackers-wtp",
-      "created_at": "2026-02-18T00:00:00.000Z",
-      "updated_at": "2026-02-19T19:26:20.979Z",
-      "title": "Indie Hackers Will Pay $29/month for an AI Product Manager",
-      "statement": "If VibeBusiness provides persistent business context, real metric integrations, and actionable weekly recommendations, then indie hackers will convert to Pro at $29/month at rates exceeding 8% of active free users.",
-      "description": "Indie hackers typically budget $20-100/month for essential tools (Cursor $20, Supabase $25, Vercel $20). The #1 pain point is decision paralysis: 'What should I build? What should I focus on?' No current tool in their stack provides business intelligence. $29/month sits below Cursor ($20/mo) for code and above throwaway tools — signaling quality without friction.",
-      "funnel_stage": "monetization",
-      "priority": "critical",
-      "status": "stated",
-      "evidence_for": [
-        "Developer tools achieve highest freemium conversion of any SaaS category at 11.7%",
-        "Usage-limited freemium converts at 8.3% (73% better than feature-limited)",
-        "Indie hacker tool budget is $20-100/month — $29 fits comfortably",
-        "Decision paralysis is the #1 pain point across r/SaaS, Indie Hackers, and Hacker News surveys",
-        "No existing tool fills the 'AI product manager for solo founders' gap"
-      ],
-      "evidence_against": [
-        "AI-native gross retention is only 27-40% — significantly below traditional SaaS",
-        "'Just use Claude/ChatGPT directly' objection is common",
-        "No revenue data yet to validate willingness to pay"
-      ],
-      "validation_criteria": [
-        "Launch Pro tier at $29/month and measure conversion rate (target: >8% of active free users)",
-        "Track monthly churn among Pro users (target: <5%)",
-        "Survey paying users: 'What would you do if VibeBusiness disappeared?' (must pass Sean Ellis test: >40% 'very disappointed')",
-        "Compare retention of paying users vs free users at D30"
-      ],
-      "validation_ideas": [
-        "idea-f0f8ee79",
-        "idea-141b5aa7",
-        "idea-cd2e2717",
-        "idea-d39f0f48",
-        "idea-7c25480d",
-        "idea-88be6c65",
-        "idea-76e9ff3b"
-      ],
-      "reference_model": "Pricing & Monetization — Value-based pricing, willingness-to-pay research",
-      "effort_to_test": "m",
-      "tags": [
-        "pricing",
-        "conversion",
-        "indie-hackers",
-        "willingness-to-pay"
-      ]
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "hyp-build-in-public",
-      "created_at": "2026-02-18T00:00:00.000Z",
-      "updated_at": "2026-02-18T00:00:00.000Z",
-      "title": "Build-in-Public Drives Organic Acquisition at Zero Cost",
-      "statement": "If the founder posts daily on X/Twitter documenting the VibeBusiness journey (90% value, 10% product), then organic npm downloads will exceed 500/week within 90 days of consistent posting.",
-      "description": "Cursor reached $100M ARR with zero marketing budget. Marc Louvion earned $1.2M and gained 87K followers through build-in-public. The 180K+ build-in-public community on X is highly engaged. Indie Hackers delivers 23.1% conversion per engaged post vs Product Hunt's 3.1%. This is the lowest-cost, highest-ROI acquisition channel.",
-      "funnel_stage": "acquisition",
-      "priority": "high",
-      "status": "stated",
-      "evidence_for": [
-        "Cursor: $100M ARR with zero marketing budget, 36% free-to-paid conversion",
-        "Marc Louvion: $1.2M revenue and 87K followers through build-in-public on X",
-        "180K+ build-in-public community is highly engaged",
-        "Indie Hackers: 23.1% conversion per engaged post",
-        "53% of PLG acquisition comes from organic search (long-term)"
-      ],
-      "evidence_against": [
-        "Requires consistent daily effort — hard for solo founder with product work",
-        "Build-in-public fatigue: everyone is doing it now, harder to stand out",
-        "89% of surveyed founders wouldn't launch on Product Hunt again (diminishing returns)"
-      ],
-      "validation_criteria": [
-        "Post daily on X/Twitter for 90 consecutive days",
-        "Track npm weekly downloads (target: 500/week by day 90)",
-        "Track follower growth rate (target: 10+ net new followers/day)",
-        "Measure referral traffic from X/Twitter to GitHub/npm",
-        "Track Show HN and r/SaaS post engagement vs downloads"
-      ],
-      "validation_ideas": [],
-      "reference_model": "Growth Marketing — Bullseye Framework, community-led growth",
-      "effort_to_test": "m",
-      "tags": [
-        "acquisition",
-        "build-in-public",
-        "twitter",
-        "community",
-        "plg"
-      ]
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "hyp-byok-adoption",
-      "created_at": "2026-02-18T00:00:00.000Z",
-      "updated_at": "2026-02-19T19:26:20.979Z",
-      "title": "BYOK Model Reduces Adoption Friction for Target Segment",
-      "statement": "If VibeBusiness targets Claude Code power users (who already pay $100-200/month for Claude Max), then BYOK setup friction will not significantly impact conversion — at least 60% of installers will complete their first vibe cycle.",
-      "description": "BYOK creates onboarding friction (users need API keys), but our primary target already has Claude Code installed and authenticated. The detection flow auto-discovers Claude CLI in PATH. For users without Claude Code, BYOK API key fallback supports Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google. As AI costs drop 83-90% over 16 months, BYOK becomes less friction-heavy and more of a tailwind.",
-      "funnel_stage": "activation",
-      "priority": "high",
-      "status": "stated",
-      "evidence_for": [
-        "Target users already pay $100-200/month for Claude Max — BYOK is free for them",
-        "Auto-detection of Claude CLI in PATH eliminates manual key entry for most users",
-        "AI inference costs dropped 83-90% in 16 months — trend makes BYOK less friction-heavy",
-        "Cline model: free open-source tool + BYOK, raised $32M — validates the model"
-      ],
-      "evidence_against": [
-        "Users without Claude Code face API key setup friction",
-        "BYOK limits per-user revenue (can't monetize AI compute)",
-        "Some users may be confused by the 'bring your own key' concept"
-      ],
-      "validation_criteria": [
-        "Measure completion rate of npx vibebusiness init (target: >60% of installers complete first vibe cycle)",
-        "Track drop-off at API key setup step",
-        "Compare completion rates: Claude CLI auto-detected vs manual BYOK setup",
-        "Survey users who dropped off during setup: why?"
-      ],
-      "validation_ideas": [
-        "idea-6631456b",
-        "idea-b5e5adbb",
-        "idea-8ed5995b",
-        "idea-026b93d1"
-      ],
-      "reference_model": "Product-Led Growth — Onboarding and activation, time-to-value optimization",
-      "effort_to_test": "s",
-      "tags": [
-        "activation",
-        "onboarding",
-        "byok",
-        "friction"
-      ]
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "hyp-memory-switching-cost",
-      "created_at": "2026-02-18T00:00:00.000Z",
-      "updated_at": "2026-02-19T19:13:20.208Z",
-      "title": "MEMORY.md Accumulation Creates Meaningful Switching Costs by Day 30",
-      "statement": "If MEMORY.md accumulates 700+ observations by Day 30 and users can see this growth visually, then D30 retention will exceed 25% and users who reach Day 30 will have <3% monthly churn.",
-      "description": "After months of vibe cycles, MEMORY.md contains deep understanding of codebase patterns, historical KPI trends, user preferences, and decision outcomes. This is analogous to Salesforce's 'workflow barnacles' — operational data structured in the vendor's model that becomes expensive to replicate. Make MEMORY.md growth visible: 'Your business context has grown 340% in 60 days.' However, AI is beginning to erode traditional switching costs, so the moat must be the intelligence layer, not just the data.",
-      "funnel_stage": "engagement",
-      "priority": "high",
-      "status": "stated",
-      "evidence_for": [
-        "a16z research: products where data accumulates show 'smiling' retention curves that improve over time",
-        "Salesforce's switching cost comes from years of workflow data — MEMORY.md is the equivalent",
-        "Implementation track record (ideas shipped, PRs merged, outcomes measured) is irreplaceable institutional knowledge"
-      ],
-      "evidence_against": [
-        "AI is compressing switching costs industry-wide (Klarna CEO predicts one-click AI migration)",
-        "If MEMORY.md quality plateaus or becomes generic, switching cost perception drops",
-        "New entrants could potentially import MEMORY.md data"
-      ],
-      "validation_criteria": [
-        "Track MEMORY.md size/observation count at Day 7, 14, 30 milestones",
-        "Measure D30 retention among users with 700+ observations vs fewer (target: 2x difference)",
-        "Survey Day 30 users: 'How painful would it be to switch to a different tool?' (target: >60% say 'very painful')",
-        "Track monthly churn for Day 30+ users (target: <3%)"
-      ],
-      "validation_ideas": [
-        "idea-5ef89036",
-        "idea-14f841f3",
-        "idea-67759730"
-      ],
-      "reference_model": "Retention — Data accumulation moats, switching costs, 'smiling' retention curves",
-      "effort_to_test": "l",
-      "tags": [
-        "retention",
-        "switching-costs",
-        "memory",
-        "moat",
-        "data-accumulation"
-      ]
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "hyp-implementation-differentiator",
-      "created_at": "2026-02-18T00:00:00.000Z",
-      "updated_at": "2026-02-19T19:31:25.151Z",
-      "title": "Autonomous Implementation Engine Is the Key Differentiator",
-      "statement": "If VibeBusiness autonomously ships code via Claude Code CLI (branch → PR → merge → verify), then users who experience at least one autonomously shipped feature will retain at 2x the rate of users who only receive recommendations.",
-      "description": "VibeBusiness's most differentiated capability: the vibe loop doesn't just recommend — it generates ideas, prioritizes them, and autonomously implements them through code. Already working in production (PR #74 shipped and verified). Brain/hands separation: as Claude Code improves, VibeBusiness's implementation quality improves for free. No competitor combines business intelligence with autonomous coding execution.",
-      "funnel_stage": "engagement",
-      "priority": "high",
-      "status": "stated",
-      "evidence_for": [
-        "Already shipped production features through this pipeline (PR #74 verified, PR #75 in testing)",
-        "No competitor closes the full loop from idea → code → PR → verify",
-        "Brain/hands architecture means implementation quality improves for free as Claude Code improves",
-        "Tangible shipped code is more compelling than recommendations alone"
-      ],
-      "evidence_against": [
-        "Users may not trust autonomous code changes to their production codebase",
-        "Replit's autonomous agent deleted a production database and fabricated reports",
-        "METR study: experienced developers were 19% slower with AI despite believing they were faster",
-        "Requires Claude Code CLI or BYOK API key — adds friction"
-      ],
-      "validation_criteria": [
-        "Compare D30 retention: users with >=1 autonomously shipped PR vs recommendation-only users (target: 2x)",
-        "Track number of users who enable implementation pipeline (target: >30% of Pro users)",
-        "Track PR merge rate for autonomously generated PRs (target: >70%)",
-        "Measure NPS difference between implementation users vs recommendation-only users"
-      ],
-      "validation_ideas": [
-        "idea-1710cde5",
-        "idea-ecf9a6e0",
-        "idea-85731847",
-        "idea-7c9778a0",
-        "idea-b8e59666",
-        "idea-4afc10b3",
-        "idea-95e75206",
-        "idea-c4d62334",
-        "idea-fb3eba74",
-        "idea-dd16ce17"
-      ],
-      "reference_model": "Product Development — Feature impact verification, Build-Measure-Learn loops",
-      "effort_to_test": "xl",
-      "tags": [
-        "implementation",
-        "differentiation",
-        "retention",
-        "claude-code",
-        "autonomous"
-      ]
-    }
-  ]
-}