velixar-mcp-server 0.2.4 → 1.2.0

package/dist/simulation/personas.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/simulation/report.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+import type { SimulationResult } from './runner.js';
+import type { Persona } from './personas.js';
+export interface PredictionReport {
+    badge: '🔬 THOUGHT EXPERIMENT' | '📊 DATA-INFORMED';
+    prediction: string;
+    confidenceRange: {
+        low: number;
+        high: number;
+        label: string;
+    };
+    keyFactors: string[];
+    risks: string[];
+    assumptions: string[];
+    timeline: string;
+    dissentingViews: string[];
+    dataFoundation: {
+        totalMemoriesUsed: number;
+        groundedPersonas: number;
+        archetypePersonas: number;
+        devilsAdvocates: number;
+        dataSufficiency: number;
+        classification: string;
+    };
+    disclaimer: string;
+    trackPrompt: string;
+}
+export declare function generateReport(sim: SimulationResult, personas: Persona[], coverageRatio: number, seedMemoryCount: number, minDataThreshold: number): PredictionReport;
+//# sourceMappingURL=report.d.ts.map

package/dist/simulation/report.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"report.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/simulation/report.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAQA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,aAAa,CAAC;AACpD,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,eAAe,CAAC;AAE7C,MAAM,WAAW,gBAAgB;IAC/B,KAAK,EAAE,uBAAuB,GAAG,kBAAkB,CAAC;IACpD,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACnB,eAAe,EAAE;QAAE,GAAG,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QAAC,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QAAC,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;KAAE,CAAC;IAC9D,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC;IACrB,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC;IAChB,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC;IACtB,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACjB,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC;IAC1B,cAAc,EAAE;QACd,iBAAiB,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QAC1B,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QACzB,iBAAiB,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QAC1B,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QACxB,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QACxB,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;KACxB,CAAC;IACF,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACnB,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACrB;AAED,wBAAgB,cAAc,CAC5B,GAAG,EAAE,gBAAgB,EACrB,QAAQ,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,EACnB,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,EACrB,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,EACvB,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,GACvB,gBAAgB,CA+FlB"}

package/dist/simulation/report.js

@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
+// ── Prediction Report Generator ──
+// Build 1.3: Structured report from simulation results.
+// H1.3: Confidence = consensus * min(1.0, coverage / 0.7)
+// H1.5: Data Foundation section. H1.6: Model limitation disclaimer.
+// H7.1: Ranges not points. H7.2: "What could go wrong" prominent.
+// Chain 8: Post-hoc fact-check (async annotation).
+// Chain 9: Badge system 🔬 vs 📊.
+export function generateReport(sim, personas, coverageRatio, seedMemoryCount, minDataThreshold) {
+    // Chain 9: Badge system
+    const dataInformed = coverageRatio >= 0.4 && seedMemoryCount >= minDataThreshold;
+    const badge = dataInformed ? '📊 DATA-INFORMED' : '🔬 THOUGHT EXPERIMENT';
+    // H1.3: Confidence includes data sufficiency
+    const consensusStrength = sim.convergenceRound
+        ? Math.min(1.0, 0.5 + (sim.rounds.length - sim.convergenceRound) * 0.1)
+        : 0.4;
+    const dataSufficiency = Math.min(1.0, coverageRatio / 0.7);
+    const rawConfidence = consensusStrength * dataSufficiency;
+    // H7.1: Ranges not points
+    const confidenceRange = {
+        low: Math.max(0, Math.round((rawConfidence - 0.15) * 100) / 100),
+        high: Math.min(1, Math.round((rawConfidence + 0.15) * 100) / 100),
+        label: rawConfidence >= 0.7 ? 'moderate-high' : rawConfidence >= 0.4 ? 'moderate' : 'low',
+    };
+    // Extract key factors from state bullets
+    const keyFactors = sim.finalState
+        .filter(b => /\b(because|due to|driven by|caused by|result of|key factor)\b/i.test(b))
+        .slice(0, 5);
+    if (keyFactors.length === 0) {
+        // Fallback: use last 3 state bullets
+        keyFactors.push(...sim.finalState.slice(-3));
+    }
+    // H7.2: Risks from devil's advocate actions (prominent, not buried)
+    const devilActions = sim.rounds
+        .flatMap(r => r.actions.filter(a => a.personaType === 'devils_advocate' && a.active))
+        .map(a => a.action)
+        .filter(Boolean);
+    const risks = devilActions.length > 0
+        ? devilActions.slice(0, 3)
+        : ['No devil\'s advocate perspectives were generated — risks may be underexplored.'];
+    // H7.3: Assumptions
+    const assumptions = extractAssumptions(sim);
+    // Dissenting views
+    const dissentingViews = sim.rounds
+        .flatMap(r => r.actions.filter(a => a.active && a.personaType !== 'devils_advocate'))
+        .filter(a => {
+        const consensus = sim.emergentConsensus.toLowerCase();
+        const action = a.action.toLowerCase();
+        return consensus.includes('leave') ? action.includes('stay') :
+            consensus.includes('stay') ? action.includes('leave') :
+                false;
+    })
+        .map(a => `${a.personaName}: ${a.action.slice(0, 150)}`)
+        .slice(0, 3);
+    // Data foundation
+    const groundedCount = personas.filter(p => p.type === 'data_grounded').length;
+    const archetypeCount = personas.filter(p => p.type === 'archetype').length;
+    const devilCount = personas.filter(p => p.type === 'devils_advocate').length;
+    const dataFoundation = {
+        totalMemoriesUsed: seedMemoryCount,
+        groundedPersonas: groundedCount,
+        archetypePersonas: archetypeCount,
+        devilsAdvocates: devilCount,
+        dataSufficiency: Math.round(dataSufficiency * 100) / 100,
+        classification: dataInformed
+            ? `Data-informed: ${seedMemoryCount} relevant memories found, ${groundedCount} personas grounded in real data.`
+            : `Thought experiment: only ${seedMemoryCount} relevant memories found (threshold: ${minDataThreshold}). Simulation relies primarily on general patterns.`,
+    };
+    // Timeline estimate
+    const timeline = sim.convergenceRound
+        ? `Outcomes likely to materialize within ${Math.ceil(sim.convergenceRound / 5)} decision cycles of the triggering event.`
+        : 'Timeline uncertain — simulation did not converge on a clear trajectory.';
+    // Prediction text — H7.1: ranges, not points
+    const prediction = [
+        `[PREDICTION — simulated, not factual]`,
+        `Based on a ${sim.rounds.length}-round simulation with ${personas.length} personas (${groundedCount} data-grounded, ${archetypeCount} archetype, ${devilCount} devil's advocate):`,
+        '',
+        sim.emergentConsensus,
+        '',
+        `Confidence range: ${confidenceRange.low}-${confidenceRange.high} (${confidenceRange.label}).`,
+        sim.aborted ? '⚠️ Simulation was time-limited — results based on partial run.' : '',
+    ].filter(Boolean).join('\n');
+    // H1.6: Disclaimer
+    const disclaimer = 'This is a simulation-based estimate, not a forecast. It reflects patterns in your data as of today. Use as one input to decision-making alongside human judgment, market research, and domain expertise. The simulation is bounded by the AI model\'s training data and may not capture truly novel scenarios.';
+    // H1.7: Track prompt
+    const trackPrompt = `To track this prediction, note the simulation ID and check back when outcomes are known. Velixar will automatically flag when new data relates to this prediction.`;
+    return {
+        badge, prediction, confidenceRange, keyFactors, risks, assumptions,
+        timeline, dissentingViews, dataFoundation, disclaimer, trackPrompt,
+    };
+}
+function extractAssumptions(sim) {
+    const assumptions = [];
+    // Variable-based assumptions
+    for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(sim.variables)) {
+        assumptions.push(`Assumes ${k.replace(/_/g, ' ')} is ${v} (as specified).`);
+    }
+    // Behavioral assumptions
+    if (sim.personas.some(p => p.type === 'archetype')) {
+        assumptions.push('Some personas are based on general archetypes, not your specific data.');
+    }
+    assumptions.push('Assumes competitors do not make simultaneous changes (unless specified).');
+    assumptions.push('Assumes no major external shocks (regulatory changes, economic events) during the prediction window.');
+    return assumptions;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=report.js.map

package/dist/simulation/report.js.map

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package/dist/simulation/runner.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+import type { Persona } from './personas.js';
+export interface SimulationEvent {
+    round: number;
+    description: string;
+    impact: string;
+}
+export interface RoundAction {
+    personaId: string;
+    personaName: string;
+    personaType: string;
+    action: string;
+    active: boolean;
+    grounded: boolean;
+}
+export interface RoundResult {
+    round: number;
+    actions: RoundAction[];
+    summary: string;
+    stateBullets: string[];
+    consensus: string | null;
+    eventInjected: string | null;
+    activeCount: number;
+    totalCount: number;
+}
+export interface SimulationResult {
+    simulationId: string;
+    question: string;
+    variables: Record<string, string>;
+    events: SimulationEvent[];
+    rounds: RoundResult[];
+    finalState: string[];
+    emergentConsensus: string;
+    convergenceRound: number | null;
+    trendHistory: string[];
+    personas: Array<{
+        id: string;
+        name: string;
+        type: string;
+        role: string;
+        memoryCount: number;
+    }>;
+    tokensUsed: number;
+    roundsCompleted: number;
+    roundsPlanned: number;
+    aborted: boolean;
+    durationMs: number;
+}
+type LLMCall = (system: string, user: string) => Promise<string>;
+export declare function runSimulation(opts: {
+    simulationId: string;
+    question: string;
+    variables: Record<string, string>;
+    events?: SimulationEvent[];
+    personas: Persona[];
+    roundCount: number;
+    llmCall: LLMCall;
+    seed?: number;
+    concurrency?: number;
+    timeoutMs?: number;
+    onRound?: (round: number, total: number) => void;
+}): Promise<SimulationResult>;
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=runner.d.ts.map

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package/dist/simulation/runner.js

@@ -0,0 +1,167 @@
+// ── Simulation Runner v2 ──
+// Upgraded: event injection mid-simulation, per-persona activity levels,
+// richer round tracking, convergence detection with trend analysis.
+import { generateDevilsAdvocates } from './personas.js';
+export async function runSimulation(opts) {
+    const { simulationId, question, variables, roundCount, llmCall, seed, concurrency = 10, timeoutMs = 60000, } = opts;
+    const events = (opts.events || []).sort((a, b) => a.round - b.round);
+    let personas = [...opts.personas];
+    const startTime = Date.now();
+    const rounds = [];
+    const stateBullets = [];
+    const trendHistory = [];
+    const maxBullets = roundCount * 3;
+    let tokensUsed = 0;
+    let convergenceRound = null;
+    let lastConsensus = '';
+    let consensusStreak = 0;
+    let aborted = false;
+    const rng = seed !== undefined ? seededRandom(seed) : Math.random;
+    for (let round = 1; round <= roundCount; round++) {
+        if (Date.now() - startTime > timeoutMs) {
+            aborted = true;
+            break;
+        }
+        opts.onRound?.(round, roundCount);
+        // Event injection — check if any events fire this round
+        let eventInjected = null;
+        const roundEvents = events.filter(e => e.round === round);
+        if (roundEvents.length > 0) {
+            eventInjected = roundEvents.map(e => `⚡ EVENT: ${e.description} (impact: ${e.impact})`).join('\n');
+            stateBullets.push(...roundEvents.map(e => `[EVENT R${round}] ${e.description}`));
+        }
+        // Devil's advocates at 25% mark
+        if (round === Math.ceil(roundCount * 0.25) && rounds.length >= 3) {
+            const consensus = extractRecentConsensus(rounds);
+            if (consensus) {
+                const devils = generateDevilsAdvocates(consensus, simulationId);
+                personas = [...personas, ...devils];
+            }
+        }
+        // Build round context
+        const recentRounds = rounds.slice(-3).map(r => `Round ${r.round}${r.eventInjected ? ' [EVENT]' : ''}: ${r.summary}`).join('\n');
+        const variableStr = Object.entries(variables).map(([k, v]) => `${k}: ${v}`).join(', ');
+        const roundContext = [
+            `SCENARIO VARIABLES: ${variableStr}`,
+            `Round ${round} of ${roundCount}.`,
+            eventInjected ? `\n${eventInjected}\nHow does this change your behavior?` : '',
+            stateBullets.length > 0 ? `\nKEY DEVELOPMENTS:\n${stateBullets.slice(-12).map(b => `• ${b}`).join('\n')}` : '',
+            recentRounds ? `\nRECENT:\n${recentRounds}` : '',
+            '\nWhat do you do? Be specific — state your action and reasoning. 2-4 sentences.',
+        ].filter(Boolean).join('\n');
+        // Determine active personas (per-persona activity level + randomness)
+        const activePersonas = personas.filter(p => {
+            const prob = p.activityLevel ?? 0.7;
+            // Events boost activity — everyone pays attention
+            const boost = eventInjected ? 0.3 : 0;
+            return rng() < Math.min(1.0, prob + boost);
+        });
+        if (activePersonas.length === 0)
+            activePersonas.push(personas[0]);
+        // Run in parallel batches
+        const actions = [];
+        for (let i = 0; i < activePersonas.length; i += concurrency) {
+            const batch = activePersonas.slice(i, i + concurrency);
+            const results = await Promise.allSettled(batch.map(async (p) => {
+                const response = await llmCall(p.systemPrompt, roundContext);
+                const inputTokens = estimateTokens(p.systemPrompt) + estimateTokens(roundContext);
+                const outputTokens = estimateTokens(response);
+                tokensUsed += inputTokens + outputTokens;
+                // Check if response references known data (simple heuristic)
+                const grounded = p.knowledge.some(k => {
+                    const words = k.split(' ').filter(w => w.length > 5).slice(0, 3);
+                    return words.some(w => response.toLowerCase().includes(w.toLowerCase()));
+                });
+                return { personaId: p.id, personaName: p.name, personaType: p.type, action: response, active: true, grounded };
+            }));
+            for (const r of results) {
+                if (r.status === 'fulfilled')
+                    actions.push(r.value);
+            }
+        }
+        // Inactive personas
+        for (const p of personas) {
+            if (!actions.some(a => a.personaId === p.id)) {
+                actions.push({ personaId: p.id, personaName: p.name, personaType: p.type, action: '', active: false, grounded: false });
+            }
+        }
+        // Extract state bullets
+        const newBullets = extractBullets(actions.filter(a => a.active));
+        stateBullets.push(...newBullets);
+        while (stateBullets.length > maxBullets)
+            stateBullets.shift();
+        // Summary
+        const active = actions.filter(a => a.active);
+        const summary = active.length <= 3
+            ? active.map(a => `${a.personaName}: ${a.action.slice(0, 100)}`).join('. ')
+            : `${active.length} acted. ${active.slice(0, 2).map(a => `${a.personaName}: ${a.action.slice(0, 80)}`).join('; ')}`;
+        // Consensus
+        const roundConsensus = detectConsensus(active.map(a => a.action));
+        trendHistory.push(roundConsensus || 'mixed');
+        if (roundConsensus && roundConsensus === lastConsensus) {
+            consensusStreak++;
+            if (consensusStreak >= 3 && round >= roundCount * 0.5)
+                convergenceRound = round;
+        }
+        else {
+            consensusStreak = Math.max(0, consensusStreak - 1); // decay, don't reset
+        }
+        lastConsensus = roundConsensus || lastConsensus;
+        rounds.push({ round, actions, summary, stateBullets: [...stateBullets], consensus: roundConsensus, eventInjected, activeCount: active.length, totalCount: personas.length });
+        // Early stop: converged AND no more events pending
+        if (convergenceRound && round >= convergenceRound + 2 && !events.some(e => e.round > round))
+            break;
+    }
+    return {
+        simulationId, question, variables, events, rounds, finalState: stateBullets,
+        emergentConsensus: lastConsensus || 'No clear consensus emerged.',
+        convergenceRound, trendHistory,
+        personas: personas.map(p => ({ id: p.id, name: p.name, type: p.type, role: p.role, memoryCount: p.memoryCount })),
+        tokensUsed, roundsCompleted: rounds.length, roundsPlanned: roundCount,
+        aborted, durationMs: Date.now() - startTime,
+    };
+}
+// ── Helpers ──
+function estimateTokens(text) { return Math.ceil(text.length / 3); }
+function extractBullets(actions) {
+    const bullets = [];
+    for (const a of actions) {
+        const sentences = a.action.split(/[.!]\s+/).filter(s => s.length > 20 && s.length < 200);
+        for (const s of sentences) {
+            if (/\b(would|will|decide|switch|leave|stay|increase|decrease|launch|cancel|respond|react|announce|invest|cut|raise|delay)\b/i.test(s)) {
+                const prefix = a.grounded ? '' : '[est] ';
+                bullets.push(`${prefix}${a.personaName}: ${s.trim().replace(/\n/g, ' ')}`);
+                if (bullets.length >= 3)
+                    return bullets;
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    if (bullets.length === 0 && actions.length > 0) {
+        const first = actions[0];
+        const s = first.action.split(/[.!]\s+/)[0] || first.action.slice(0, 150);
+        bullets.push(`${first.personaName}: ${s.trim()}`);
+    }
+    return bullets.slice(0, 3);
+}
+function detectConsensus(actions) {
+    if (actions.length < 3)
+        return null;
+    const keywords = new Map();
+    for (const a of actions) {
+        const words = a.toLowerCase().match(/\b(leave|stay|switch|increase|decrease|positive|negative|risk|opportunity|churn|retain|grow|decline|wait|accelerate|cancel|delay|invest|cut)\b/g) || [];
+        for (const w of words)
+            keywords.set(w, (keywords.get(w) || 0) + 1);
+    }
+    const threshold = actions.length * 0.5;
+    const dominant = [...keywords.entries()].filter(([, c]) => c >= threshold).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
+    return dominant.length > 0 ? `Majority trend: ${dominant.map(([w]) => w).join(', ')}` : null;
+}
+function extractRecentConsensus(rounds) {
+    const recent = rounds.slice(-3).map(r => r.consensus).filter(Boolean);
+    return recent[recent.length - 1] || 'mixed signals';
+}
+function seededRandom(seed) {
+    let s = seed;
+    return () => { s = (s * 1664525 + 1013904223) & 0xffffffff; return (s >>> 0) / 0xffffffff; };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=runner.js.map

package/dist/simulation/runner.js.map

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package/dist/temporal_merge.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+import type { MemoryItem } from './types.js';
+export interface TemporalMemory extends MemoryItem {
+    _superseded: boolean;
+    _superseded_by?: string;
+    _supersession_confidence: 'explicit' | 'inferred' | 'none';
+    _chain_head: boolean;
+    _chain_broken: boolean;
+    _chain_fork: boolean;
+    _hit_count?: number;
+    _matched_queries?: number;
+    _original_relevance?: number;
+}
+export interface TemporalGrouping {
+    current: TemporalMemory[];
+    superseded: TemporalMemory[];
+    temporal_context: {
+        newest_memory: string;
+        oldest_memory: string;
+        chain_count: number;
+        fork_count: number;
+        broken_chain_count: number;
+        warning: string | null;
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Detect supersession relationships from chain links (previous_memory_id / derived_from).
+ * Returns a map of superseded_id → superseding_id.
+ */
+export declare function detectChains(memories: MemoryItem[]): {
+    supersededBy: Map<string, string>;
+    chainHeads: Set<string>;
+    forks: Set<string>;
+    brokenChains: Set<string>;
+};
+/**
+ * For memories without chain links, detect possible supersession by timestamp gap.
+ * Groups by content similarity — only memories about the same topic can supersede each other.
+ * Returns low-confidence supersession pairs.
+ */
+export declare function detectHeuristicSupersession(memories: MemoryItem[], alreadySuperseded: Set<string>): Map<string, {
+    supersededBy: string;
+    confidence: 'inferred';
+}>;
+/**
+ * Apply temporal decay to relevance scores.
+ * Semantic (tier 2) and pinned (tier 0) memories are exempt — they represent durable knowledge.
+ * Only episodic memories (tier 1) decay.
+ */
+export declare function applyTemporalDecay(mem: TemporalMemory): number;
+/**
+ * Takes a flat list of memories, applies chain detection, supersession marking,
+ * temporal decay, and returns grouped results.
+ */
+export declare function temporalMerge(memories: MemoryItem[]): TemporalGrouping;
+/**
+ * Deduplicate and merge memories from multiple search queries.
+ * Memories appearing in multiple queries get boosted scores.
+ * H3.4: Returns matched_query_indices per memory (not full strings).
+ * H3.5: Never reorders input queries — indices are stable.
+ */
+export declare function mergeMultiQueryResults(perQueryResults: Array<{
+    query: string;
+    memories: MemoryItem[];
+}>, strategy?: 'union' | 'intersection' | 'weighted', limit?: number, queryWeights?: number[], threshold?: number): {
+    merged: MemoryItem[];
+    diversity_score: number;
+    per_query_counts: number[];
+    matched_query_indices: Record<string, number[]>;
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=temporal_merge.d.ts.map

package/dist/temporal_merge.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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