token-optimizer-opencode 1.0.8 → 1.0.14

package/dist/pricing.js

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+/**
+ * Minimal per-MTok rate card for OpenCode's realized-savings counterfactual.
+ *
+ * OpenCode persists a pre-computed `cost_usd` per session (priced at its own
+ * model when recorded), so the ACTUAL arm needs no rate card. The
+ * COUNTERFACTUAL arm, however, reprices the same token VOLUME at a DIFFERENT
+ * (baseline) model mix, which requires a per-class rate card the stored cost
+ * cannot supply. This module is that card.
+ *
+ * Rates mirror openclaw/src/pricing.ts exactly (USD per token; verified
+ * May 30, 2026). cacheWrite = 5-minute-TTL rate (1.25x input); cacheWrite1h =
+ * 1-hour-TTL rate (2x input), only set for Claude models that support it.
+ *
+ * A "mix" is a {modelKey -> share} map (shares sum to ~1). price() blends the
+ * per-token cost across the mix; unpriced models fall back to a proxy rate.
+ */
+/** Default pricing (USD per token). Mirrors openclaw/src/pricing.ts. */
+export const DEFAULT_PRICING = {
+    // Anthropic Claude (1M context for Fable/Opus/Sonnet as of March 13, 2026)
+    fable: { input: 10.0 / 1e6, output: 50.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 1.0 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 12.5 / 1e6, cacheWrite1h: 20.0 / 1e6 },
+    opus: { input: 5.0 / 1e6, output: 25.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.5 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 6.25 / 1e6, cacheWrite1h: 10.0 / 1e6 },
+    sonnet: { input: 3.0 / 1e6, output: 15.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.3 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 3.75 / 1e6, cacheWrite1h: 6.0 / 1e6 },
+    haiku: { input: 1.0 / 1e6, output: 5.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.1 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 1.25 / 1e6, cacheWrite1h: 2.0 / 1e6 },
+    // OpenAI GPT-5 family
+    "gpt-5.5-pro": { input: 30.0 / 1e6, output: 180.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 30.0 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5.5": { input: 5.0 / 1e6, output: 30.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.50 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5.4": { input: 2.5 / 1e6, output: 15.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.25 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5.4-mini": { input: 0.75 / 1e6, output: 4.5 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.075 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5.4-nano": { input: 0.20 / 1e6, output: 1.25 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.02 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5.3-codex": { input: 1.75 / 1e6, output: 14.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.175 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5.2-codex": { input: 1.75 / 1e6, output: 14.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.175 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5.2": { input: 1.75 / 1e6, output: 14.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.175 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5.1-codex-mini": { input: 0.25 / 1e6, output: 2.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.025 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5.1-codex": { input: 1.25 / 1e6, output: 10.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.125 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5.1": { input: 1.25 / 1e6, output: 10.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.125 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5-codex": { input: 1.25 / 1e6, output: 10.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.125 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5": { input: 1.25 / 1e6, output: 10.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.125 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5-mini": { input: 0.25 / 1e6, output: 2.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.025 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-5-nano": { input: 0.05 / 1e6, output: 0.4 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.005 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // OpenAI GPT-4 family
+    "gpt-4.1": { input: 2.0 / 1e6, output: 8.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.5 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-4.1-mini": { input: 0.4 / 1e6, output: 1.6 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.1 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-4.1-nano": { input: 0.1 / 1e6, output: 0.4 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.025 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-4o": { input: 2.5 / 1e6, output: 10.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 1.25 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gpt-4o-mini": { input: 0.15 / 1e6, output: 0.6 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.075 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // OpenAI reasoning
+    "o3": { input: 2.0 / 1e6, output: 8.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.5 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "o3-pro": { input: 20.0 / 1e6, output: 80.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 5.0 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "o3-mini": { input: 1.1 / 1e6, output: 4.4 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.55 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "o4-mini": { input: 1.10 / 1e6, output: 4.40 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.275 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // Google Gemini
+    "gemini-3.5-flash": { input: 1.5 / 1e6, output: 9.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.15 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gemini-3.1-pro-preview": { input: 2.0 / 1e6, output: 12.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.20 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gemini-3.1-flash-lite": { input: 0.25 / 1e6, output: 1.5 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.025 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gemini-3-pro": { input: 2.0 / 1e6, output: 12.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gemini-3-flash": { input: 0.5 / 1e6, output: 3.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gemini-3.1-pro": { input: 2.0 / 1e6, output: 12.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.20 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gemini-2.5-pro": { input: 1.25 / 1e6, output: 10.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.125 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gemini-2.5-flash": { input: 0.3 / 1e6, output: 2.5 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.03 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gemini-2.5-flash-lite": { input: 0.1 / 1e6, output: 0.4 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.01 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gemini-2.0-flash": { input: 0.1 / 1e6, output: 0.4 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gemini-2.0-flash-lite": { input: 0.075 / 1e6, output: 0.3 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "gemini-flash-lite": { input: 0.1 / 1e6, output: 0.4 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // DeepSeek
+    "deepseek-v3": { input: 0.28 / 1e6, output: 0.42 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0.028 / 1e6, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "deepseek-r1": { input: 0.55 / 1e6, output: 2.19 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // Alibaba Qwen
+    "qwen3": { input: 0.30 / 1e6, output: 1.20 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "qwen3-mini": { input: 0.08 / 1e6, output: 0.32 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "qwen-coder": { input: 0.15 / 1e6, output: 0.60 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // Moonshot Kimi
+    "kimi-k2.5": { input: 0.50 / 1e6, output: 2.00 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // MiniMax
+    "minimax-2": { input: 0.30 / 1e6, output: 1.10 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // Zhipu GLM
+    "glm-4.7": { input: 0.48 / 1e6, output: 0.96 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "glm-4.7-flash": { input: 0.04 / 1e6, output: 0.04 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // Xiaomi MiMo
+    "mimo-flash": { input: 0.20 / 1e6, output: 0.40 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // Mistral
+    "mistral-large": { input: 0.5 / 1e6, output: 1.5 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    "mistral-small": { input: 0.10 / 1e6, output: 0.30 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // xAI Grok
+    "grok-4": { input: 3.0 / 1e6, output: 15.0 / 1e6, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+    // Local models (free but track tokens)
+    "local": { input: 0, output: 0, cacheRead: 0, cacheWrite: 0 },
+};
+/** Price the proxy rate card uses when a model is unpriced. */
+export const PROXY_MODEL = "sonnet";
+const KNOWN_PROVIDER_PREFIXES = new Set([
+    "anthropic", "openai", "google", "gemini", "vertex", "bedrock",
+    "openrouter", "gateway", "litellm", "azure", "aws",
+]);
+function stripProviderPrefixes(modelId) {
+    let value = modelId.trim().toLowerCase();
+    while (true) {
+        const slash = value.indexOf("/");
+        const colon = value.indexOf(":");
+        if (slash === -1 && colon === -1)
+            return value;
+        const useSlash = slash !== -1 && (colon === -1 || slash < colon);
+        const idx = useSlash ? slash : colon;
+        const delimiter = useSlash ? "/" : ":";
+        const prefix = value.slice(0, idx);
+        const rest = value.slice(idx + 1);
+        if (!rest || !/[a-z]/.test(rest))
+            return value;
+        if (delimiter === "/" || KNOWN_PROVIDER_PREFIXES.has(prefix)) {
+            value = rest;
+            continue;
+        }
+        return value;
+    }
+}
+/**
+ * Normalize a model ID into a pricing key. Mirrors openclaw/src/pricing.ts.
+ * Handles provider prefixes (anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-6 -> sonnet) and version
+ * suffixes (gpt-5.2-2026-03 -> gpt-5.2). Returns lowercased raw on no match.
+ */
+export function normalizeModelName(modelId) {
+    if (!modelId || modelId.startsWith("<"))
+        return modelId || "unknown";
+    const m = stripProviderPrefixes(modelId);
+    if (m.includes("fable"))
+        return "fable";
+    if (m.includes("opus"))
+        return "opus";
+    if (m.includes("sonnet"))
+        return "sonnet";
+    if (m.includes("haiku"))
+        return "haiku";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5.5-pro"))
+        return "gpt-5.5-pro";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5.5"))
+        return "gpt-5.5";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5.4") && m.includes("nano"))
+        return "gpt-5.4-nano";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5.4") && m.includes("mini"))
+        return "gpt-5.4-mini";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5.4"))
+        return "gpt-5.4";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5.3") && m.includes("codex"))
+        return "gpt-5.3-codex";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5.2") && m.includes("codex"))
+        return "gpt-5.2-codex";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5.2"))
+        return "gpt-5.2";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5.1") && m.includes("codex") && m.includes("mini"))
+        return "gpt-5.1-codex-mini";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5.1") && m.includes("codex"))
+        return "gpt-5.1-codex";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5.1"))
+        return "gpt-5.1";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5") && m.includes("codex"))
+        return "gpt-5-codex";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5") && m.includes("nano"))
+        return "gpt-5-nano";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5") && m.includes("mini"))
+        return "gpt-5-mini";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-5"))
+        return "gpt-5";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-4.1") && m.includes("nano"))
+        return "gpt-4.1-nano";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-4.1") && m.includes("mini"))
+        return "gpt-4.1-mini";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-4.1"))
+        return "gpt-4.1";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-4o-mini"))
+        return "gpt-4o-mini";
+    if (m.includes("gpt-4o"))
+        return "gpt-4o";
+    if (m.includes("o4-mini"))
+        return "o4-mini";
+    if (m.includes("o3-mini"))
+        return "o3-mini";
+    if (m.includes("o3-pro"))
+        return "o3-pro";
+    if (m === "o3" || m.startsWith("o3-"))
+        return "o3";
+    if (m.includes("gemini") && m.includes("3.5") && m.includes("flash"))
+        return "gemini-3.5-flash";
+    if (m.includes("gemini") && m.includes("3.1") && m.includes("pro") && m.includes("preview"))
+        return "gemini-3.1-pro-preview";
+    if (m.includes("gemini") && m.includes("3.1") && m.includes("flash") && m.includes("lite"))
+        return "gemini-3.1-flash-lite";
+    if (m.includes("gemini") && m.includes("3.1") && m.includes("pro"))
+        return "gemini-3.1-pro";
+    if (m.includes("gemini") && m.includes("2.5") && m.includes("flash") && m.includes("lite"))
+        return "gemini-2.5-flash-lite";
+    if (m.includes("gemini") && m.includes("2.5") && m.includes("flash"))
+        return "gemini-2.5-flash";
+    if (m.includes("gemini") && m.includes("2.5") && m.includes("pro"))
+        return "gemini-2.5-pro";
+    if (m.includes("2.0") && m.includes("flash") && m.includes("lite"))
+        return "gemini-2.0-flash-lite";
+    if (m.includes("2.0") && m.includes("flash"))
+        return "gemini-2.0-flash";
+    if (m.includes("gemini-3") && m.includes("flash"))
+        return "gemini-3-flash";
+    if (m.includes("gemini-3") && m.includes("pro"))
+        return "gemini-3-pro";
+    if (m.includes("flash-lite") || m.includes("flash_lite"))
+        return "gemini-flash-lite";
+    if (m.includes("deepseek") && (m.includes("r1") || m.includes("reasoner")))
+        return "deepseek-r1";
+    if (m.includes("deepseek"))
+        return "deepseek-v3";
+    if (m.includes("qwen") && m.includes("coder"))
+        return "qwen-coder";
+    if (m.includes("qwen3") && m.includes("mini"))
+        return "qwen3-mini";
+    if (m.includes("qwen"))
+        return "qwen3";
+    if (m.includes("kimi") || m.includes("moonshot"))
+        return "kimi-k2.5";
+    if (m.includes("minimax"))
+        return "minimax-2";
+    if (m.includes("glm") && m.includes("flash"))
+        return "glm-4.7-flash";
+    if (m.includes("glm"))
+        return "glm-4.7";
+    if (m.includes("mimo"))
+        return "mimo-flash";
+    if (m.includes("mistral") && (m.includes("large") || m.includes("123")))
+        return "mistral-large";
+    if (m.includes("mistral") && m.includes("small"))
+        return "mistral-small";
+    if (m.includes("mistral"))
+        return "mistral-large";
+    if (m.includes("grok"))
+        return "grok-4";
+    if (m.includes("ollama") || m.includes("local") || m.includes("lmstudio"))
+        return "local";
+    return m;
+}
+/** Resolve the rate card for a model key, proxying unpriced models. */
+function ratesFor(modelKey) {
+    const key = normalizeModelName(modelKey);
+    return DEFAULT_PRICING[key] ?? DEFAULT_PRICING[PROXY_MODEL];
+}
+/**
+ * Per-token blended rate for one class ("input" | "output" | "cacheRead") over
+ * a model mix. Each model's rate is weighted by its share; unpriced models use
+ * the proxy. Empty mix -> proxy model's rate.
+ */
+function blendedRate(mix, klass) {
+    const items = Object.entries(mix).filter(([, s]) => s && s > 0);
+    if (items.length === 0)
+        return DEFAULT_PRICING[PROXY_MODEL][klass];
+    const tot = items.reduce((s, [, v]) => s + v, 0);
+    if (tot <= 0)
+        return DEFAULT_PRICING[PROXY_MODEL][klass];
+    let acc = 0;
+    for (const [model, share] of items)
+        acc += share * ratesFor(model)[klass];
+    return acc / tot;
+}
+/** Blended 5m + 1h cache-write rate over a mix (TTL-aware, like price_cw). */
+function blendedCacheWriteRate(mix, cw5mShare, cw1hShare) {
+    // cw5mShare/cw1hShare are the fraction of cache-write tokens at each TTL.
+    const items = Object.entries(mix).filter(([, s]) => s && s > 0);
+    const score = (r) => cw5mShare * r.cacheWrite + cw1hShare * (r.cacheWrite1h ?? r.cacheWrite);
+    if (items.length === 0)
+        return score(DEFAULT_PRICING[PROXY_MODEL]);
+    const tot = items.reduce((s, [, v]) => s + v, 0);
+    if (tot <= 0)
+        return score(DEFAULT_PRICING[PROXY_MODEL]);
+    let acc = 0;
+    for (const [model, share] of items)
+        acc += share * score(ratesFor(model));
+    return acc / tot;
+}
+/**
+ * Price the fresh+cache_read POOL and OUTPUT at a model mix (NO cache-write).
+ * Linear in tokens, so aggregate window totals price the whole window directly.
+ * Mirrors measure.py's `price(fi, cr, out, shares)`.
+ */
+export function price(F, CR, O, mix) {
+    return (F * blendedRate(mix, "input") +
+        CR * blendedRate(mix, "cacheRead") +
+        O * blendedRate(mix, "output"));
+}
+/**
+ * Price cache-write at a model mix, TTL-aware: 1h writes bill at 2x input, 5m
+ * at 1.25x. Cache-write IS a routing lever (billed at the writing model's
+ * rate), so each arm prices CW at its OWN mix. Mirrors measure.py's `price_cw`.
+ * OpenCode's session_log has no 5m/1h split, so all writes are treated as 5m
+ * (conservative) unless cw1h is supplied.
+ */
+export function price_cw(CW, mix, CW_5m, CW_1h) {
+    if (CW <= 0)
+        return 0;
+    const cw1h = CW_1h ?? 0;
+    const cw5m = CW_5m ?? CW - cw1h;
+    const cw5mShare = CW > 0 ? cw5m / CW : 1;
+    const cw1hShare = CW > 0 ? cw1h / CW : 0;
+    return CW * blendedCacheWriteRate(mix, cw5mShare, cw1hShare);
+}
+/**
+ * Cost of 1M fresh-input tokens at a mix. Used to reprice the compression
+ * add-back: baseline_input_rate / current_input_rate. Mirrors measure.py's
+ * `price(1_000_000, 0, 0, shares)`.
+ */
+export function inputRatePerMTok(mix) {
+    return price(1_000_000, 0, 0, mix);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=pricing.js.map

package/dist/pricing.js.map

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package/dist/savings.baseline.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=savings.baseline.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/savings.baseline.test.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"savings.baseline.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/savings.baseline.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/savings.baseline.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
+/**
+ * Baseline-savings stability tests (frozen-baseline port, v5.11.18).
+ *
+ * Proves the headline fix on the OpenCode engine: the pre-TO baseline
+ * ("old way / session") is a FROZEN, factual anchor that does NOT move when the
+ * current period's workload volume changes; "now / session" moves only with
+ * efficiency (model mix + cache reuse). Mirrors the Python suite.
+ *
+ * Run: bun test src/savings.baseline.test.ts
+ */
+import { test, expect } from "bun:test";
+import { computeRealizedSavings } from "./savings.js";
+const DAY = 86_400_000;
+const T0 = Date.parse("2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"); // install day
+const NOW = T0 + 200 * DAY; // well past the 31-day early window
+function row(tsMs, model, fi, cr, cw, out) {
+    return {
+        created_at: Math.floor(tsMs / 1000),
+        model,
+        tokens_input: fi,
+        tokens_cache_read: cr,
+        tokens_cache_write: cw,
+        tokens_output: out,
+        cost_usd: 0,
+    };
+}
+// Fixed "before" (early-window) sessions: ~95% Opus, high cache reuse. This is the
+// frozen baseline — identical in every scenario below. An anchor row at T0 fixes
+// installTs (early window = [T0+1d, T0+31d)); the block sits densely inside it.
+function beforeRows() {
+    const rows = [row(T0, "opus", 30_000, 13_500_000, 487_000, 51_000)]; // install anchor
+    for (let i = 0; i < 35; i++) {
+        const ts = T0 + 2 * DAY + i * 0.5 * DAY; // T0+2d .. ~T0+19.5d, all inside the window
+        const model = i < 33 ? "opus" : "sonnet"; // ~95% Opus by session
+        rows.push(row(ts, model, 30_000, 13_500_000, 487_000, 51_000));
+    }
+    return rows;
+}
+// `n` recent "after" sessions with a chosen per-session size, opus share, and cache hit.
+// hit is set by the fi:cr split; size scales both while holding the ratio (so curHit is
+// constant across sizes — isolating volume from efficiency).
+// Default current cache-hit = the baseline cohort's native hit (13.5M/(13.5M+30k)),
+// so the caching lever is ~0 and routing (Opus-share) is isolated. Drop it below this
+// and a caching regression can legitimately cancel the routing win (tested separately).
+const BASE_HIT = 13_500_000 / (13_500_000 + 30_000);
+function afterRows(n, perInput, opusShare, hit = BASE_HIT) {
+    const rows = [];
+    const cr = perInput * hit;
+    const fi = perInput - cr;
+    const cw = perInput * 0.03;
+    const out = perInput * 0.01;
+    // Spread across the last ~24 days (inside the [NOW-30d, NOW] current window) so every
+    // after row counts regardless of n (n up to 120 at 0.2d spacing = 24d).
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        const model = i < Math.round(n * opusShare) ? "opus" : "sonnet";
+        rows.push(row(NOW - (i + 1) * DAY * 0.2, model, fi, cr, cw, out));
+    }
+    return rows;
+}
+function run(after) {
+    return computeRealizedSavings("/tmp/oc-baseline-test", 30, NOW, [...beforeRows(), ...after]);
+}
+test("baseline is frozen across different current volumes", () => {
+    const light = run(afterRows(40, 2_000_000, 0.56));
+    const heavy = run(afterRows(40, 10_000_000, 0.56));
+    expect(light.ready).toBe(true);
+    expect(heavy.ready).toBe(true);
+    // The old-way per-session baseline must not move when current volume 5x's.
+    expect(heavy.beforeCostPerSession).toBeCloseTo(light.beforeCostPerSession, 8);
+    // "now" depends on mix + cache-hit (held constant here), not volume -> also stable.
+    expect(heavy.afterCostPerSession).toBeCloseTo(light.afterCostPerSession, 8);
+    expect(heavy.savingsPerSession).toBeCloseTo(light.savingsPerSession, 8);
+});
+test("baseline frozen across session count; monthly scales with count", () => {
+    // opusShare 0.5 is exact at both counts (6/12 == 60/120), so the realized mix — and
+    // thus afterCps — is identical; only the count differs. (0.56 would round differently.)
+    const few = run(afterRows(12, 4_000_000, 0.5));
+    const many = run(afterRows(120, 4_000_000, 0.5));
+    expect(few.beforeCostPerSession).toBeCloseTo(many.beforeCostPerSession, 8);
+    expect(few.savingsPerSession).toBeCloseTo(many.savingsPerSession, 8);
+    // 10x the sessions -> ~10x the monthly transformation (per-session anchor is fixed).
+    const ratio = many.monthlySavingsUsd / Math.max(1e-9, few.monthlySavingsUsd);
+    expect(ratio).toBeGreaterThan(9);
+    expect(ratio).toBeLessThan(11);
+});
+test("now reacts to model mix; old way does not", () => {
+    const lean = run(afterRows(40, 4_000_000, 0.2));
+    const heavyOpus = run(afterRows(40, 4_000_000, 0.9));
+    expect(lean.beforeCostPerSession).toBeCloseTo(heavyOpus.beforeCostPerSession, 8);
+    // More Opus now -> costs more now -> less saved per session.
+    expect(heavyOpus.afterCostPerSession).toBeGreaterThan(lean.afterCostPerSession);
+    expect(heavyOpus.savingsPerSession).toBeLessThan(lean.savingsPerSession);
+});
+test("savings positive for a 95%-Opus baseline vs a 56%-Opus now", () => {
+    const r = run(afterRows(40, 4_000_000, 0.56));
+    expect(r.beforeCostPerSession).toBeGreaterThan(r.afterCostPerSession);
+    expect(r.afterCostPerSession).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    expect(r.savingsPerSession).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=savings.baseline.test.js.map

package/dist/savings.baseline.test.js.map

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package/dist/savings.d.ts

@@ -3,10 +3,39 @@ export interface SavingsBreakdownItem {
     label: string;
     monthlyUsd: number;
 }
+/** Progress toward a frozen baseline (displayed when ready=false). */
+export interface BaselineBuilding {
+    /** Sessions collected in the early window so far. */
+    sessionsInWindow: number;
+    /** Sessions needed before the baseline locks in. */
+    sessionsNeeded: number;
+    /** Length of the early-window in days (matches BASELINE_EARLY_WINDOW_DAYS). */
+    earlyWindowDays: number;
+    /** Calendar days until the early window closes (0 once it has closed). */
+    daysLeft: number;
+    /** ISO date of the user's very first tracked session. */
+    firstDate: string;
+}
 export interface RealizedSavings {
     ready: boolean;
     status: string;
     monthlySavingsUsd: number;
+    /** Monthly $ at the user's CURRENT model mix + cache pattern ("now" arm). */
+    actualMonthlyUsd: number;
+    /** Monthly $ at the user's BASELINE mix + cache pattern ("the old way" arm). */
+    counterfactualMonthlyUsd: number;
+    /** Transformation as a fraction: (counterfactual − actual) / counterfactual. */
+    transformationPct: number;
+    /**
+     * Metered compression floor — tokens TO removed from context, repriced to the
+     * baseline input mix. This is the PROVEN subset of compressionAddback and is
+     * NEVER summed into the transformation headline. Render it as a separate card.
+     */
+    compressionMeasuredUsd: number;
+    /** Estimated verbosity-steer $ before the baseline-output reprice. */
+    verbosityMeasuredUsd: number;
+    /** Repriced verbosity-steer $ (estimated output reduction at baseline mix). */
+    verbosityTransformationUsd: number;
     savingsPerSession: number;
     beforeCostPerSession: number;
     afterCostPerSession: number;
@@ -16,10 +45,19 @@ export interface RealizedSavings {
     cumulativeSavedUsd: number;
     installDate: string | null;
     breakdown: SavingsBreakdownItem[];
+    /**
+     * Populated when ready=false and the user has at least one session. Gives the
+     * dashboard enough data to render a progress card + bar instead of a dead end.
+     * null when there are zero sessions (no installDate yet).
+     */
+    baselineBuilding: BaselineBuilding | null;
 }
 /**
- * Compute realized before/after savings from trends.db. `now` is injectable for
- * testing; `rowsOverride` lets tests bypass the DB entirely.
+ * Compute realized savings via the current-volume counterfactual.
+ *   `now`               injectable for testing.
+ *   `rowsOverride`      bypasses the DB (raw session_log rows) for tests.
+ *   `compressionOverride` injects the measured compression dollars when the DB
+ *                       is bypassed (rowsOverride present); default 0.
  */
-export declare function computeRealizedSavings(dataDir: string, days?: number, now?: number, rowsOverride?: Array<Record<string, unknown>>): RealizedSavings;
+export declare function computeRealizedSavings(dataDir: string, days?: number, now?: number, rowsOverride?: Array<Record<string, unknown>>, compressionOverride?: number): RealizedSavings;
 //# sourceMappingURL=savings.d.ts.map

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