thursday-agent 0.8.0 → 0.10.0

package/seed-skills/analyst/data-report/references/sources.md

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+# Where the numbers are
+
+Take a figure from whoever publishes it, not from an article quoting it. When two sources
+disagree, the order of trust is: a filing or an official statistic; the company's own release or
+call; an industry body's report; a research firm's estimate; news.
+
+## What `fetch.mjs` reaches (no key)
+
+| Source | For | Command |
+|---|---|---|
+| FRED | US economy, rates, markets; many OECD and BIS series for other countries | `fred <ID,…>` |
+| World Bank | Every country, yearly: GDP, population, inflation, trade | `worldbank <ISO2,…> <INDICATOR>` |
+| Yahoo Finance | Stocks, ETFs, indices, crypto, futures; any exchange | `yahoo <TICKER,…> [--interval 1d\|1wk\|1mo]` |
+| ECB reference rates | Exchange rates, about 30 currencies, since 1999 | `fx <BASE> <QUOTE,…>` |
+| SEC XBRL | US-listed companies' reported figures, yearly or quarterly | `sec <TICKER> --find <word>`, then `sec <TICKER> <CONCEPT,…>` |
+| Wikipedia pageviews | Public interest in a topic, monthly (a stand-in for search trends) | `pageviews <ARTICLE,…> [--wiki ko]` |
+
+Ids worth knowing, all checked to be current:
+
+- FRED, US: `CPIAUCSL` consumer prices, `UNRATE` unemployment, `FEDFUNDS` policy rate, `DGS10`
+  10-year Treasury, `MORTGAGE30US` 30-year mortgage, `SP500`, `NASDAQCOM`, `DCOILWTICO` oil.
+- FRED, Korea: `IRSTCI01KRM156N` overnight rate, `IRLTLT01KRM156N` 10-year bond,
+  `LRHUTTTTKRM156S` unemployment, `DEXKOUS` won per dollar (daily), `QSKR628BIS` house prices.
+  Korea's monthly consumer prices are no longer on FRED; the yearly rate is World Bank
+  `FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG`, the monthly index is on the Bank of Korea and KOSIS sites.
+- World Bank: `NY.GDP.MKTP.CD` GDP in dollars, `NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG` real growth, `NY.GDP.PCAP.CD`
+  GDP per person, `SP.POP.TOTL` population, `FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG` inflation.
+- Yahoo tickers: Korean listings end in `.KS` (KOSPI) or `.KQ` (KOSDAQ), Tokyo `.T`, Hong Kong
+  `.HK`; indices start with `^` (`^GSPC`, `^IXIC`, `^KS11`, `^N225`); `BTC-USD`; `KRW=X` is won per
+  dollar.
+- SEC concepts: revenue is `Revenues` for some companies and
+  `RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax` for others, and a company can switch —
+  `--find` shows which one it uses now. Others: `OperatingIncomeLoss`, `NetIncomeLoss`,
+  `EarningsPerShareDiluted`, `Assets`, `StockholdersEquity`. A fourth quarter is not filed on its
+  own; the script works it out as the year less three quarters and says so in the file.
+
+## What it does not reach
+
+- **Korean official statistics** — the Bank of Korea (ECOS) and KOSIS APIs, and company filings
+  through OpenDART, need a free key the user signs up for. Without one, read the table on the
+  site (ecos.bok.or.kr, kosis.kr, dart.fss.or.kr) and write the rows into a CSV with a `# source:`
+  line.
+- **Prices in shops, rents, listings** — pages, not APIs: open them in the browser, one listing at
+  a time, and record each with its link and the time you saw it.
+- **Search trends** — Google Trends has no open API; Wikipedia pageviews or a site's own published
+  counts stand in, and say that they do.
+- **Market-size totals** — research firms publish the headline figure in a press release and sell
+  the rest. Take the headline with its year and what it counts; never the paywalled detail
+  quoted secondhand.
+
+A source that does not answer twice in a row is down, not empty: say so and use another.

package/seed-skills/analyst/data-report/references/trend.md

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+# Trend
+
+How something moved and what moved it: the series itself, from its source, with the events
+that explain its turns marked on it.
+
+## Collect
+
+- The series from the publisher (`fetch.mjs`, or a table on its site), over a window at least
+  three times as long as the period asked about, so "recently" can be seen against normal.
+- A comparison series when it tells the story: the same measure elsewhere, the thing it is
+  usually compared with (rent against pay, a stock against its index). Different units:
+  `--index`.
+- For each turn the text explains, a dated event from a source: a rate decision, a policy, a
+  launch, a shock. A turn with no sourced cause is said to be unexplained.
+
+## Final text
+
+The level now and its date; the change over the period asked about, as a number and a percent;
+the one or two things that moved it. Missing or revised points are said.
+
+## Page
+
+1. Title: the movement as a finding. Lede: level now, change, main cause.
+2. The line chart, with a `--mark` for each event the text names.
+3. A small table: now, one year ago, three or five years ago, the high and low with dates.
+4. What moved it, one short paragraph per mark, each with its source.
+5. What to watch: the next release date, and the level that would change the story.
+
+## Example (illustrative numbers)
+
+> **Mortgage rates fell a full point in a year, following the 10-year bond**
+>
+> The 30-year rate is 6.1% (2026-09-17), down from 7.1% a year earlier; the 10-year Treasury
+> fell from 4.6% to 3.9% over the same weeks.
+>
+> [chart: both lines since 2020, marks at the first rate cut and the jobs report that followed]
+>
+> Watch: the next inflation release on 10-14; a monthly core reading above 0.3% has pushed the
+> 10-year up each time this year.