thumbgate 1.16.21 → 1.16.22

package/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "thumbgate-marketplace",
-  "version": "1.16.21",
+  "version": "1.16.22",
   "owner": {
     "name": "Igor Ganapolsky",
     "email": "ig5973700@gmail.com"
@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@
         "source": "npm",
         "package": "thumbgate"
       },
-      "version": "1.16.21",
+      "version": "1.16.22",
       "author": {
         "name": "Igor Ganapolsky"
       },

package/.claude-plugin/plugin.json

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
   "name": "thumbgate",
   "description": "Type 👍 or 👎 on any agent action. ThumbGate captures it, distills a lesson, and blocks the pattern from repeating. One thumbs-down = the agent physically cannot make that mistake again. 33 pre-action checks, budget enforcement, self-protection, and NIST/SOC2 compliance tags.",
-  "version": "1.16.21",
+  "version": "1.16.22",
   "author": {
     "name": "Igor Ganapolsky"
   },

package/.well-known/mcp/server-card.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "thumbgate",
-  "version": "1.16.21",
+  "version": "1.16.22",
   "description": "ThumbGate — 👍👎 feedback that teaches your AI agent. Thumbs down a mistake, it never happens again.",
   "homepage": "https://thumbgate-production.up.railway.app",
   "transport": "stdio",

package/adapters/claude/.mcp.json

@@ -2,13 +2,13 @@
   "mcpServers": {
     "thumbgate": {
       "command": "npx",
-      "args": ["--yes", "--package", "thumbgate@1.16.21", "thumbgate", "serve"]
+      "args": ["--yes", "--package", "thumbgate@1.16.22", "thumbgate", "serve"]
     }
   },
   "hooks": {
     "preToolUse": {
       "command": "npx",
-      "args": ["--yes", "--package", "thumbgate@1.16.21", "thumbgate", "gate-check"]
+      "args": ["--yes", "--package", "thumbgate@1.16.22", "thumbgate", "gate-check"]
     }
   }
 }

package/adapters/mcp/server-stdio.js

@@ -216,7 +216,7 @@ const {
   finalizeSession: finalizeFeedbackSession,
 } = require('../../scripts/feedback-session');
 
-const SERVER_INFO = { name: 'thumbgate-mcp', version: '1.16.21' };
+const SERVER_INFO = { name: 'thumbgate-mcp', version: '1.16.22' };
 const COMMERCE_CATEGORIES = [
   'product_recommendation',
   'brand_compliance',

package/adapters/opencode/opencode.json

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@
         "npx",
         "--yes",
         "--package",
-        "thumbgate@1.16.21",
+        "thumbgate@1.16.22",
         "thumbgate",
         "serve"
       ],

package/bin/cli.js

@@ -1112,7 +1112,6 @@ function pro() {
   }
 
   if (args.upgrade) {
-    const proDir = path.join(PKG_ROOT, 'pro');
     const thumbgateDir = path.join(CWD, '.thumbgate');
     if (!fs.existsSync(thumbgateDir)) fs.mkdirSync(thumbgateDir, { recursive: true });
 
@@ -1123,6 +1122,21 @@ function pro() {
       ['reminders-pro.json', '8 reminder templates'],
     ];
 
+    const candidateDirs = [
+      path.join(PKG_ROOT, 'config', 'pro'),
+      path.join(PKG_ROOT, 'pro'),
+    ];
+    const proDir = candidateDirs.find((dir) =>
+      files.every(([file]) => fs.existsSync(path.join(dir, file)))
+    );
+
+    if (!proDir) {
+      console.error('Pro upgrade bundle is missing from this ThumbGate install.');
+      console.error(`Expected files under: ${path.join(PKG_ROOT, 'config', 'pro')}`);
+      console.error('Please upgrade to the latest thumbgate package and retry: npm install -g thumbgate@latest');
+      process.exit(1);
+    }
+
     for (const [file] of files) {
       fs.copyFileSync(path.join(proDir, file), path.join(thumbgateDir, file));
     }

package/config/pro/constraints-pro.json

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+{
+  "version": 1,
+  "name": "ThumbGate Pro Constraints",
+  "description": "Public Pro upgrade bundle installed by `thumbgate pro --upgrade` for local workflow hardening.",
+  "constraints": [
+    {
+      "id": "evidence-before-completion",
+      "severity": "critical",
+      "rule": "Do not claim done, fixed, shipped, published, or paid until the relevant command, URL, PR, workflow, or billing record has been checked."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "read-before-write",
+      "severity": "high",
+      "rule": "Before editing existing code, read the surrounding implementation and tests so the patch follows local contracts."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "no-destructive-git-without-intent",
+      "severity": "critical",
+      "rule": "Block destructive git operations such as reset --hard, checkout --, clean -fd, and force-push unless the operator explicitly requested that exact operation."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "production-data-write-gate",
+      "severity": "critical",
+      "rule": "Block production database writes, deletes, migrations, and irreversible data operations unless a backup, target environment, and rollback plan are present."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "secrets-redaction",
+      "severity": "critical",
+      "rule": "Never print, commit, paste, or persist secrets. Use only sanitized status output when verifying credentials."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "test-before-merge",
+      "severity": "high",
+      "rule": "Before saying a code change is ready, run the narrow relevant tests or explain exactly why verification could not run."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "no-synthetic-traction",
+      "severity": "critical",
+      "rule": "Do not describe views, clicks, stars, configured gates, or generated artifacts as revenue, customers, or proven interventions."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "paid-path-health",
+      "severity": "high",
+      "rule": "Before promoting a paid offer, verify the landing page and checkout route return HTTP 200 and point to the intended Stripe path."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "single-source-commercial-truth",
+      "severity": "high",
+      "rule": "Commercial claims must match docs/COMMERCIAL_TRUTH.md for pricing, traction, tier limits, and proof language."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "bounded-agent-run",
+      "severity": "high",
+      "rule": "Long-running agent work must have a bounded objective, progress evidence, and a stop condition instead of open-ended activity."
+    }
+  ]
+}

package/config/pro/prevention-rules-pro.md

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+# ThumbGate Pro Prevention Rules
+
+These public Pro rules are installed by `thumbgate pro --upgrade` into `.thumbgate/`.
+They are starting points for local operator hardening, not proof that any gate has fired.
+
+## Evidence Claims
+
+- Require a fresh command, API response, workflow status, URL check, or billing record before completion claims.
+- Treat configured checks as inventory and recorded blocks or warnings as usage evidence.
+- Treat Stripe-reconciled charges as revenue proof; treat traffic and clicks as funnel evidence only.
+
+## Code Changes
+
+- Read the existing file and nearby tests before editing.
+- Keep edits scoped to the requested behavior.
+- Run narrow tests for the touched behavior before reporting success.
+
+## Risky Actions
+
+- Block destructive git commands unless the operator explicitly asked for the exact action.
+- Block production data changes unless the target, backup, and rollback plan are explicit.
+- Block checkout, publish, deploy, or customer-write claims until the live path is verified.
+
+## Agent Workflow
+
+- If an agent repeats a known failure, capture the failed action, expected behavior, and enforcement rule in one concise lesson.
+- Prefer one workflow owner, one repeated failure, and one proof review before expanding a Team rollout.

package/config/pro/reminders-pro.json

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+{
+  "version": 1,
+  "name": "ThumbGate Pro Reminder Templates",
+  "reminders": [
+    {
+      "id": "verify-before-claim",
+      "text": "Verify with a tool before claiming this is done."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "read-local-contract",
+      "text": "Read the local implementation and tests before editing."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "protect-user-work",
+      "text": "Do not revert user changes or unrelated dirty worktree state."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "billing-truth",
+      "text": "Do not claim revenue unless Stripe or billing evidence proves it."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "configured-is-not-fired",
+      "text": "Configured checks are inventory; recorded blocks and warnings are usage evidence."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "checkout-health",
+      "text": "Verify the paid landing page and checkout route before sending traffic."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "narrow-tests",
+      "text": "Run the smallest relevant test set for this change."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "bounded-workflow",
+      "text": "Name the workflow owner, repeated failure, proof artifact, and stop condition."
+    }
+  ]
+}

package/config/pro/thompson-presets.json

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+{
+  "version": 1,
+  "name": "ThumbGate Pro Thompson Sampling Presets",
+  "presets": [
+    {
+      "id": "conservative",
+      "description": "Prefer warn before block until repeated harmful evidence accumulates.",
+      "alpha": 1,
+      "beta": 3,
+      "blockThreshold": 0.82,
+      "warnThreshold": 0.55
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "balanced",
+      "description": "Default local hardening profile for repeated workflow failures.",
+      "alpha": 2,
+      "beta": 2,
+      "blockThreshold": 0.72,
+      "warnThreshold": 0.48
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "strict",
+      "description": "Use for high-blast-radius workflows such as production data, deploys, billing, and destructive git.",
+      "alpha": 3,
+      "beta": 1,
+      "blockThreshold": 0.62,
+      "warnThreshold": 0.38
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "evidence-first",
+      "description": "Bias toward interventions when the agent lacks proof for claims or risky writes.",
+      "alpha": 4,
+      "beta": 2,
+      "blockThreshold": 0.66,
+      "warnThreshold": 0.42
+    }
+  ]
+}

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "thumbgate",
-  "version": "1.16.21",
+  "version": "1.16.22",
   "description": "ThumbGate self-improving agent governance: thumbs-up/down turns every mistake into a prevention rule and blocks repeat patterns. 33 pre-action checks, budget enforcement, and self-protection for Claude Code, Cursor, Codex, Gemini CLI, and Amp.",
   "homepage": "https://thumbgate-production.up.railway.app",
   "repository": {

package/public/index.html

@@ -1298,7 +1298,7 @@ __GA_BOOTSTRAP__
 <!-- HOW IT WORKS -->
 <section class="how-it-works" id="how-it-works">
   <div class="container">
-    <div class="section-label">New in v1.16.21</div>
+    <div class="section-label">New in v1.16.22</div>
     <h2 class="section-title">Three steps to stop repeated AI failures</h2>
     <div class="steps">
       <div class="step">
@@ -1717,7 +1717,7 @@ __GA_BOOTSTRAP__
       <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/igorganapolsky" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LinkedIn</a>
       <a href="/blog">Blog</a>
     </div>
-    <span class="footer-copy">© 2026 Max Smith KDP LLC · MIT License · v1.16.21</span>
+    <span class="footer-copy">© 2026 Max Smith KDP LLC · MIT License · v1.16.22</span>
   </div>
 </footer>
 

package/public/numbers.html

@@ -6,9 +6,9 @@
 <meta name="generator" content="ThumbGate">
 <meta name="author" content="Igor Ganapolsky">
 <title>ThumbGate — The Numbers | First-Party Data Snapshot</title>
-<meta name="description" content="ThumbGate's generated first-party operational snapshot: active pre-action checks, AI agent actions blocked, estimated LLM tokens and dollars saved, and the Bayes error rate of the intervention scorer.">
+<meta name="description" content="ThumbGate's generated first-party operational snapshot: configured pre-action checks, recorded block/warn events, estimated LLM token savings when events exist, and scorer calibration when the sample supports it.">
 <meta property="og:title" content="ThumbGate — The Numbers">
-<meta property="og:description" content="Generated first-party operational metrics: gates, blocks, token savings, and scorer calibration.">
+<meta property="og:description" content="Generated first-party operational snapshot: configured gates, recorded interventions, and explicit zero-evidence caveats.">
 <meta property="og:type" content="website">
 <meta property="og:url" content="https://thumbgate-production.up.railway.app/numbers">
 <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
@@ -25,9 +25,9 @@
   "alternateName": "thumbgate",
   "applicationCategory": "DeveloperApplication",
   "operatingSystem": "Cross-platform, Node.js >=18.18.0",
-  "softwareVersion": "1.16.21",
+  "softwareVersion": "1.16.22",
   "url": "https://thumbgate-production.up.railway.app/numbers",
-  "dateModified": "2026-05-06",
+  "dateModified": "2026-05-07",
   "creator": {
     "@type": "Person",
     "name": "Igor Ganapolsky",
@@ -44,8 +44,8 @@
 {
   "@context": "https://schema.org",
   "@type": "Dataset",
-  "name": "ThumbGate Live Operational Metrics",
-  "description": "First-party operational metrics from the ThumbGate pre-action check runtime: active checks, blocked AI agent actions, estimated token savings, and Bayes error rate of the intervention scorer.",
+  "name": "ThumbGate Operational Snapshot",
+  "description": "First-party operational snapshot from the ThumbGate pre-action check runtime: configured checks, recorded block/warn events, estimated token savings from recorded blocks, and Bayes error rate when the sample supports it.",
   "url": "https://thumbgate-production.up.railway.app/numbers",
   "license": "https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT",
   "creator": {
@@ -57,8 +57,8 @@
       "https://www.linkedin.com/in/igorganapolsky"
     ]
   },
-  "dateModified": "2026-05-06",
-  "datePublished": "2026-05-06",
+  "dateModified": "2026-05-07",
+  "datePublished": "2026-05-07",
   "keywords": [
     "AI agent gates",
     "LLM token savings",
@@ -69,7 +69,7 @@
   "variableMeasured": [
     {
       "@type": "PropertyValue",
-      "name": "active_gates",
+      "name": "configured_gates",
       "value": 36
     },
     {
@@ -119,6 +119,8 @@
     --cyan: #22d3ee;
     --green: #34d399;
     --amber: #fbbf24;
+    --amber-soft: rgba(251, 191, 36, 0.1);
+    --amber-line: rgba(251, 191, 36, 0.34);
   }
   body { font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, sans-serif; background: var(--bg); color: var(--text); line-height: 1.6; }
   nav { padding: 1rem 2rem; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border); display: flex; gap: 1.5rem; align-items: center; }
@@ -140,6 +142,16 @@
     font-weight: 600;
     margin-bottom: 2.5rem;
   }
+  .truth-note {
+    background: var(--amber-soft);
+    border: 1px solid var(--amber-line);
+    border-radius: 12px;
+    color: #fde68a;
+    padding: 16px 18px;
+    margin: 0 0 2.5rem;
+    font-size: 0.95rem;
+  }
+  .truth-note strong { color: #fff3bd; }
   .stats-grid { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(220px, 1fr)); gap: 18px; margin: 1.5rem 0; }
   .stat-card {
     background: var(--bg-card);
@@ -189,33 +201,34 @@
 
 <main class="container">
   <h1>The Numbers</h1>
-  <p class="subtitle">Generated first-party operational data from the ThumbGate runtime. No surveys or projections — this page is a release-time snapshot produced by the same local scripts that power the CLI and dashboard.</p>
-  <div class="freshness">Updated: 2026-05-06 · Version 1.16.21</div>
+  <p class="subtitle">Generated first-party operational snapshot from the ThumbGate runtime. This is not customer traction, install volume, revenue, or proof that a configured gate has fired.</p>
+  <div class="freshness">Updated: 2026-05-07 · Version 1.16.22</div>
+  <div class="truth-note"><strong>Read this first:</strong> configured checks are inventory. Recorded blocks and warnings are usage evidence. This snapshot currently reports 0 recorded hard-block event(s) and 0 recorded warning event(s).</div>
 
   <h2>Gate enforcement</h2>
   <div class="stats-grid">
     <div class="stat-card">
-      <div class="stat-label">Active gates</div>
+      <div class="stat-label">Configured checks</div>
       <div class="stat-value">36</div>
-      <div class="stat-sub">36 manual · 0 auto-promoted</div>
+      <div class="stat-sub">36 shipped defaults · 0 auto-promoted; inventory, not usage</div>
       <a class="stat-source" href="https://github.com/IgorGanapolsky/ThumbGate/blob/main/scripts/gate-stats.js">source: gate-stats.js</a>
     </div>
     <div class="stat-card">
       <div class="stat-label">Actions blocked</div>
       <div class="stat-value">0</div>
-      <div class="stat-sub">repeat AI mistakes prevented at the gate</div>
+      <div class="stat-sub">no recorded hard-block events in this snapshot</div>
       <a class="stat-source" href="https://github.com/IgorGanapolsky/ThumbGate/blob/main/scripts/gate-stats.js">source: gate-stats.js</a>
     </div>
     <div class="stat-card">
       <div class="stat-label">Actions warned</div>
       <div class="stat-value">0</div>
-      <div class="stat-sub">soft interventions; not blocks</div>
+      <div class="stat-sub">no recorded soft-warning events in this snapshot</div>
       <a class="stat-source" href="https://github.com/IgorGanapolsky/ThumbGate/blob/main/scripts/gate-stats.js">source: gate-stats.js</a>
     </div>
     <div class="stat-card">
-      <div class="stat-label">Top blocked gate</div>
-      <div class="stat-value" style="font-size:1.1rem;">local-only-git-writes (0 blocks)</div>
-      <div class="stat-sub">highest-occurrence prevention rule</div>
+      <div class="stat-label">Top recorded blocker</div>
+      <div class="stat-value" style="font-size:1.1rem;">No recorded blocker yet</div>
+      <div class="stat-sub">top blocker appears only after at least one recorded block</div>
       <a class="stat-source" href="https://github.com/IgorGanapolsky/ThumbGate/blob/main/scripts/gate-stats.js">source: gate-stats.js</a>
     </div>
   </div>
@@ -225,25 +238,25 @@
     <div class="stat-card">
       <div class="stat-label">Estimated hours saved</div>
       <div class="stat-value">0.0</div>
-      <div class="stat-sub">~15 min per blocked mistake × blocks+warns</div>
+      <div class="stat-sub">0 because no block/warn events are recorded</div>
       <a class="stat-source" href="https://github.com/IgorGanapolsky/ThumbGate/blob/main/scripts/gate-stats.js">source: gate-stats.js</a>
     </div>
     <div class="stat-card">
       <div class="stat-label">Estimated LLM dollars saved</div>
       <div class="stat-value">$0.00</div>
-      <div class="stat-sub">blended Sonnet/Opus/Haiku 80/15/5 mix</div>
+      <div class="stat-sub">0 because no recorded block events feed this estimate</div>
       <a class="stat-source" href="https://github.com/IgorGanapolsky/ThumbGate/blob/main/scripts/token-savings.js">source: token-savings.js</a>
     </div>
     <div class="stat-card">
       <div class="stat-label">Tokens not spent</div>
       <div class="stat-value">0</div>
-      <div class="stat-sub">2,000 input + 600 output per block, conservative</div>
+      <div class="stat-sub">0 because no recorded block events feed this estimate</div>
       <a class="stat-source" href="https://github.com/IgorGanapolsky/ThumbGate/blob/main/scripts/token-savings.js">source: token-savings.js</a>
     </div>
     <div class="stat-card">
       <div class="stat-label">Scorer Bayes error</div>
-      <div class="stat-value">n/a (no feedback sequences recorded yet)</div>
-      <div class="stat-sub">irreducible error given current feature set</div>
+      <div class="stat-value">n/a</div>
+      <div class="stat-sub">needs both safe and harmful feedback sequences</div>
       <a class="stat-source" href="https://github.com/IgorGanapolsky/ThumbGate/blob/main/scripts/bayes-optimal-gate.js">source: bayes-optimal-gate.js</a>
     </div>
   </div>
@@ -252,11 +265,11 @@
   <div class="method">
     <p><strong>Where the numbers come from.</strong> This page is regenerated from local scripts — no survey data, no hand-edited figures, no third-party attribution. Every number on this page is produced by code in the public <a href="https://github.com/IgorGanapolsky/ThumbGate">ThumbGate repo</a>.</p>
     <ul>
-      <li><strong>Active checks</strong> — union of shipped default rules and the auto-promotion ledger (auto).</li>
-      <li><strong>Actions blocked/warned</strong> — sum of <code>occurrences</code> across gates with the corresponding action.</li>
-      <li><strong>Hours saved</strong> — conservative 15-minute/incident estimate for debugging a repeated AI mistake × (blocks + warns).</li>
-      <li><strong>Dollars saved</strong> — blended per-call token estimate (2k input + 600 output) × blocks × 2026-04-15 Anthropic + OpenAI list prices. See <code>scripts/token-savings.js</code> for the full price snapshot.</li>
-      <li><strong>Bayes error rate</strong> — irreducible classifier error of the current risk scorer given its feature set. High values mean "add features, don't tune thresholds."</li>
+      <li><strong>Configured checks</strong> — union of shipped default rules and the auto-promotion ledger. This is inventory, not proof that the check fired.</li>
+      <li><strong>Actions blocked/warned</strong> — recorded intervention counts from gate occurrence data. These are the evidence counters.</li>
+      <li><strong>Hours saved</strong> — conservative 15-minute/incident estimate, shown only as a function of recorded block/warn counts.</li>
+      <li><strong>Dollars saved</strong> — blended per-call token estimate (2k input + 600 output) × recorded blocks × 2026-04-15 Anthropic + OpenAI list prices. See <code>scripts/token-savings.js</code> for the full price snapshot.</li>
+      <li><strong>Bayes error rate</strong> — shown only when the feedback sample contains both safe and harmful outcomes. One-class samples are reported as n/a.</li>
     </ul>
     <p style="margin-top:12px;">Last auto-promotion: none. Regenerated on every release via <code>npm run numbers:generate</code> and on a weekly cadence.</p>
   </div>
@@ -264,7 +277,7 @@
   <div class="cta">
     <a href="https://www.npmjs.com/package/thumbgate">Install ThumbGate — npx thumbgate init</a>
     <div class="footer-note">Prefer the raw feed? See <a href="https://github.com/IgorGanapolsky/ThumbGate">GitHub</a> or run <code>npm run gate:stats</code> locally.</div>
-    <div class="footer-note">Generated at 2026-05-06T21:53:14.685Z UTC.</div>
+    <div class="footer-note">Generated at 2026-05-07T14:59:51.816Z UTC.</div>
   </div>
 </main>
 </body>

package/scripts/gate-stats.js

@@ -43,10 +43,12 @@ function calculateStats() {
     .filter((g) => g.action === 'warn')
     .reduce((sum, g) => sum + (g.occurrences || 0), 0);
 
-  // Top blocked gate
+  // Top blocked gate. A configured block rule with zero occurrences is not a
+  // "top blocker"; only recorded block events should appear here.
   const topBlocked = [...allGates]
+    .filter((g) => g.action === 'block' && Number(g.occurrences || 0) > 0)
     .sort((a, b) => (b.occurrences || 0) - (a.occurrences || 0))
-    .find((g) => g.action === 'block') || null;
+    .at(0) || null;
 
   // Last promotion event
   const lastPromotion = promotionLog.length > 0
@@ -58,11 +60,9 @@ function calculateStats() {
   const estimatedHoursSaved = (estimatedMinutesSaved / 60).toFixed(1);
 
   // Bayes error rate: irreducible error floor of the current scorer given its
-  // feature set (tag signatures). If this is near zero, the scorer is already
-  // close to optimal — threshold tuning won't help, and new features are the
-  // only lever. If this is high, the feature set can't discriminate the signal
-  // and we should add features (file path, recency, commit context) rather
-  // than tune thresholds. Null when no feedback sequences have been recorded.
+  // feature set (tag signatures). It is only meaningful when the local sample
+  // contains both harmful and safe outcomes; an all-negative or all-positive
+  // sample can produce a misleading 0.0% floor.
   const bayesErrorRate = tryComputeBayesErrorRate();
 
   return {
@@ -90,12 +90,33 @@ function tryComputeBayesErrorRate() {
       .filter(Boolean)
       .map((line) => { try { return JSON.parse(line); } catch { return null; } })
       .filter(Boolean);
+    if (!hasMixedOutcomeClasses(rows)) return null;
     return computeBayesErrorRate(rows);
   } catch {
     return null;
   }
 }
 
+function hasMixedOutcomeClasses(rows) {
+  if (!Array.isArray(rows) || rows.length < 2) return false;
+  let harmful = 0;
+  let safe = 0;
+  for (const row of rows) {
+    if (sequenceIsHarmful(row)) harmful += 1;
+    else safe += 1;
+    if (harmful > 0 && safe > 0) return true;
+  }
+  return false;
+}
+
+function sequenceIsHarmful(row) {
+  if (!row || typeof row !== 'object') return false;
+  if (typeof row.targetRisk === 'number') return row.targetRisk > 0;
+  if (typeof row.accepted === 'boolean' && row.accepted === false) return true;
+  const label = String(row.label || row.signal || '').toLowerCase();
+  return label === 'negative';
+}
+
 function formatLastPromotion(promo) {
   if (!promo) return 'none';
   const ts = promo.timestamp ? new Date(promo.timestamp) : null;
@@ -125,7 +146,7 @@ function formatStats(stats) {
 }
 
 function formatBayesErrorRate(rate) {
-  if (rate === null || rate === undefined) return 'n/a (no feedback sequences yet)';
+  if (rate === null || rate === undefined) return 'n/a (need both safe and harmful feedback sequences)';
   const pct = (rate * 100).toFixed(1);
   if (rate < 0.02) return `${pct}% — scorer is near-optimal; add features, don't tune thresholds`;
   if (rate < 0.10) return `${pct}% — scorer has modest headroom`;