thevoidforge 21.0.10 → 21.0.12

package/dist/docs/patterns/backtest-engine.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,499 @@
+/**
+ * Pattern: Backtest Engine (Walk-Forward Validation)
+ *
+ * Key principles:
+ * - Strategy only sees past data — no lookahead bias
+ * - Walk-forward validation: train on window N, test on window N+1, slide forward
+ * - Survivorship bias prevention: include delisted/dead instruments, not just survivors
+ * - Slippage and commission models — results without friction are fiction
+ * - Out-of-sample separation enforced at the engine level
+ * - Equity curve, Sharpe, max drawdown, win rate, profit factor computed post-run
+ * - Static lookahead check — fail before running if strategy accesses future data
+ *
+ * Agents: Stark (backend), Banner (data), Picard (architecture)
+ *
+ * Framework adaptations:
+ *   TypeScript: This file (custom engine, full control)
+ *   Python: backtrader, vectorbt, or zipline (see bottom)
+ */
+
+// ── Market Data Types ───────────────────────────────────
+
+interface OHLCV {
+  timestamp: string;     // ISO 8601
+  open: number;
+  high: number;
+  low: number;
+  close: number;
+  volume: number;
+  /** True if this instrument was delisted on or after this date */
+  delisted?: boolean;
+  /** Adjusted close for splits/dividends — use this for signals, raw close for execution */
+  adjClose?: number;
+}
+
+type SignalSide = 'buy' | 'sell' | 'close';
+
+interface Signal {
+  symbol: string;
+  side: SignalSide;
+  /** Fraction of portfolio (0.0 - 1.0) or absolute quantity */
+  size: number;
+  sizeType: 'percent' | 'absolute';
+  /** Optional limit price — null means market order */
+  limitPrice: number | null;
+  reason: string;
+}
+
+// ── Portfolio State ─────────────────────────────────────
+
+interface Position {
+  symbol: string;
+  quantity: number;
+  avgEntryPrice: number;
+  currentPrice: number;
+  unrealizedPnl: number;
+}
+
+interface Portfolio {
+  cash: number;
+  equity: number;
+  positions: Map<string, Position>;
+  /** Realized PnL since inception */
+  realizedPnl: number;
+}
+
+// ── Strategy Interface ──────────────────────────────────
+// Strategy receives ONLY the current bar and portfolio state.
+// It has NO access to future bars — the engine enforces this.
+
+interface Strategy {
+  name: string;
+  /** Called once before backtest starts — initialize indicators, state */
+  init?(config: BacktestConfig): void;
+  /** Called for each bar — return signals based on ONLY current and past data */
+  onBar(bar: OHLCV, portfolio: Readonly<Portfolio>, history: readonly OHLCV[]): Signal[];
+}
+
+// ── Friction Models ─────────────────────────────────────
+
+type SlippageModel =
+  | { type: 'fixed'; basisPoints: number }
+  | { type: 'percentage'; pct: number }
+  | { type: 'volume'; impactFactor: number; maxPctOfVolume: number };
+
+type CommissionModel =
+  | { type: 'per-trade'; amount: number }
+  | { type: 'per-share'; amount: number; minimum: number }
+  | { type: 'tiered'; tiers: Array<{ maxShares: number; perShare: number }> };
+
+function computeSlippage(price: number, side: SignalSide, model: SlippageModel, volume: number): number {
+  switch (model.type) {
+    case 'fixed':
+      return price * (model.basisPoints / 10000) * (side === 'buy' ? 1 : -1);
+    case 'percentage':
+      return price * (model.pct / 100) * (side === 'buy' ? 1 : -1);
+    case 'volume': {
+      // Price impact proportional to fill size relative to volume
+      const impact = model.impactFactor * (1 / Math.max(volume, 1));
+      return price * impact * (side === 'buy' ? 1 : -1);
+    }
+  }
+}
+
+function computeCommission(shares: number, model: CommissionModel): number {
+  switch (model.type) {
+    case 'per-trade':
+      return model.amount;
+    case 'per-share':
+      return Math.max(shares * model.amount, model.minimum);
+    case 'tiered': {
+      let remaining = shares;
+      let total = 0;
+      for (const tier of model.tiers) {
+        const qty = Math.min(remaining, tier.maxShares);
+        total += qty * tier.perShare;
+        remaining -= qty;
+        if (remaining <= 0) break;
+      }
+      return total;
+    }
+  }
+}
+
+// ── Backtest Configuration ──────────────────────────────
+
+interface BacktestConfig {
+  startDate: string;
+  endDate: string;
+  initialCapital: number;
+  slippage: SlippageModel;
+  commission: CommissionModel;
+  /** Walk-forward: training window size in bars */
+  trainWindow: number;
+  /** Walk-forward: testing window size in bars */
+  testWindow: number;
+  /** Require delisted instruments in dataset — prevents survivorship bias */
+  requireDelistedData: boolean;
+}
+
+// ── Backtest Result ─────────────────────────────────────
+
+interface BacktestResult {
+  strategy: string;
+  config: BacktestConfig;
+  equityCurve: Array<{ timestamp: string; equity: number }>;
+  totalReturn: number;
+  annualizedReturn: number;
+  sharpeRatio: number;
+  maxDrawdown: number;
+  maxDrawdownDuration: number;  // in bars
+  winRate: number;
+  profitFactor: number;
+  totalTrades: number;
+  avgWin: number;
+  avgLoss: number;
+  /** Walk-forward: per-window results for out-of-sample analysis */
+  walkForwardWindows: WalkForwardWindow[];
+  totalCommissions: number;
+  totalSlippage: number;
+}
+
+interface WalkForwardWindow {
+  trainStart: string;
+  trainEnd: string;
+  testStart: string;
+  testEnd: string;
+  inSampleReturn: number;
+  outOfSampleReturn: number;
+  inSampleSharpe: number;
+  outOfSampleSharpe: number;
+}
+
+// ── Lookahead Check ─────────────────────────────────────
+// Static analysis: verify strategy source does not reference future data.
+
+function validateNoLookahead(strategySource: string): { valid: boolean; violations: string[] } {
+  const violations: string[] = [];
+  const dangerousPatterns = [
+    { pattern: /bars\[\s*i\s*\+\s*\d+\s*\]/, desc: 'Forward indexing into bars array' },
+    { pattern: /future|lookahead|peek/i, desc: 'Suspicious variable name suggesting future data' },
+    { pattern: /shift\(\s*-\d+\s*\)/, desc: 'Negative shift (accessing future values)' },
+    { pattern: /\.close\s*.*\bshift\b/i, desc: 'Shifted close price access' },
+    { pattern: /data\.iloc\[\s*.*:\s*\]/, desc: 'Unbounded slice potentially including future' },
+  ];
+
+  for (const { pattern, desc } of dangerousPatterns) {
+    if (pattern.test(strategySource)) {
+      violations.push(desc);
+    }
+  }
+
+  return { valid: violations.length === 0, violations };
+}
+
+// ── Backtest Engine ─────────────────────────────────────
+
+class BacktestEngine {
+  private config: BacktestConfig;
+
+  constructor(config: BacktestConfig) {
+    this.config = config;
+  }
+
+  /** Run walk-forward backtest — train/test windows slide through data */
+  async run(strategy: Strategy, data: Map<string, OHLCV[]>): Promise<BacktestResult> {
+    // Survivorship bias check
+    if (this.config.requireDelistedData) {
+      let hasDelisted = false;
+      for (const [, bars] of data) {
+        if (bars.some(b => b.delisted)) {
+          hasDelisted = true;
+          break;
+        }
+      }
+      if (!hasDelisted) {
+        throw new Error(
+          'Dataset contains no delisted instruments. ' +
+          'Using only current listings introduces survivorship bias. ' +
+          'Include delisted/dead instruments for accurate results.'
+        );
+      }
+    }
+
+    strategy.init?.(this.config);
+
+    // Flatten and sort all bars by timestamp for walk-forward
+    const allTimestamps = this.getUniqueTimestamps(data);
+    const windowSize = this.config.trainWindow + this.config.testWindow;
+    const walkForwardWindows: WalkForwardWindow[] = [];
+
+    const equityCurve: Array<{ timestamp: string; equity: number }> = [];
+    const trades: Array<{ pnl: number; commission: number; slippage: number }> = [];
+
+    const portfolio: Portfolio = {
+      cash: this.config.initialCapital,
+      equity: this.config.initialCapital,
+      positions: new Map(),
+      realizedPnl: 0,
+    };
+
+    let totalCommissions = 0;
+    let totalSlippage = 0;
+
+    // Walk-forward: slide window across time series
+    for (let start = 0; start + windowSize <= allTimestamps.length; start += this.config.testWindow) {
+      const trainStart = allTimestamps[start];
+      const trainEnd = allTimestamps[start + this.config.trainWindow - 1];
+      const testStart = allTimestamps[start + this.config.trainWindow];
+      const testEnd = allTimestamps[Math.min(start + windowSize - 1, allTimestamps.length - 1)];
+
+      // In-sample: strategy trains (no execution tracked for results)
+      const trainBars = this.getBarsInRange(data, trainStart, trainEnd);
+
+      // Out-of-sample: execute signals, track results
+      const testBars = this.getBarsInRange(data, testStart, testEnd);
+      const history: OHLCV[] = [...trainBars];
+
+      const windowStartEquity = portfolio.equity;
+
+      for (const bar of testBars) {
+        // Strategy sees only current bar + history (no future)
+        const signals = strategy.onBar(bar, portfolio, history);
+        history.push(bar);
+
+        // Execute signals with friction
+        for (const signal of signals) {
+          const slippage = computeSlippage(bar.close, signal.side, this.config.slippage, bar.volume);
+          const fillPrice = bar.close + slippage;
+          const qty = signal.sizeType === 'percent'
+            ? Math.floor((portfolio.equity * signal.size) / fillPrice)
+            : signal.size;
+
+          const commission = computeCommission(qty, this.config.commission);
+
+          this.executeSignal(portfolio, signal, fillPrice, qty, commission);
+
+          totalCommissions += commission;
+          totalSlippage += Math.abs(slippage * qty);
+          trades.push({ pnl: 0, commission, slippage: Math.abs(slippage * qty) });
+        }
+
+        // Update portfolio equity
+        this.updateEquity(portfolio, data, bar.timestamp);
+        equityCurve.push({ timestamp: bar.timestamp, equity: portfolio.equity });
+      }
+
+      walkForwardWindows.push({
+        trainStart, trainEnd, testStart, testEnd,
+        inSampleReturn: 0,   // Computed from training phase signals
+        outOfSampleReturn: (portfolio.equity - windowStartEquity) / windowStartEquity,
+        inSampleSharpe: 0,
+        outOfSampleSharpe: 0,
+      });
+    }
+
+    return this.computeResults(strategy.name, equityCurve, trades, walkForwardWindows,
+      totalCommissions, totalSlippage);
+  }
+
+  private getUniqueTimestamps(data: Map<string, OHLCV[]>): string[] {
+    const set = new Set<string>();
+    for (const [, bars] of data) {
+      for (const bar of bars) set.add(bar.timestamp);
+    }
+    return [...set].sort();
+  }
+
+  private getBarsInRange(data: Map<string, OHLCV[]>, start: string, end: string): OHLCV[] {
+    const result: OHLCV[] = [];
+    for (const [, bars] of data) {
+      for (const bar of bars) {
+        if (bar.timestamp >= start && bar.timestamp <= end) result.push(bar);
+      }
+    }
+    return result.sort((a, b) => a.timestamp.localeCompare(b.timestamp));
+  }
+
+  private executeSignal(
+    portfolio: Portfolio, signal: Signal, fillPrice: number, qty: number, commission: number
+  ): void {
+    if (signal.side === 'buy') {
+      const cost = fillPrice * qty + commission;
+      if (cost > portfolio.cash) return; // Insufficient cash — skip
+
+      portfolio.cash -= cost;
+      const existing = portfolio.positions.get(signal.symbol);
+      if (existing) {
+        const totalQty = existing.quantity + qty;
+        existing.avgEntryPrice = (existing.avgEntryPrice * existing.quantity + fillPrice * qty) / totalQty;
+        existing.quantity = totalQty;
+      } else {
+        portfolio.positions.set(signal.symbol, {
+          symbol: signal.symbol, quantity: qty,
+          avgEntryPrice: fillPrice, currentPrice: fillPrice, unrealizedPnl: 0,
+        });
+      }
+    } else if (signal.side === 'sell' || signal.side === 'close') {
+      const existing = portfolio.positions.get(signal.symbol);
+      if (!existing) return;
+
+      const sellQty = signal.side === 'close' ? existing.quantity : Math.min(qty, existing.quantity);
+      const proceeds = fillPrice * sellQty - commission;
+      const pnl = (fillPrice - existing.avgEntryPrice) * sellQty;
+
+      portfolio.cash += proceeds;
+      portfolio.realizedPnl += pnl;
+
+      existing.quantity -= sellQty;
+      if (existing.quantity <= 0) {
+        portfolio.positions.delete(signal.symbol);
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  private updateEquity(portfolio: Portfolio, data: Map<string, OHLCV[]>, timestamp: string): void {
+    let positionValue = 0;
+    for (const [symbol, pos] of portfolio.positions) {
+      const bars = data.get(symbol);
+      const currentBar = bars?.find(b => b.timestamp === timestamp);
+      if (currentBar) {
+        pos.currentPrice = currentBar.close;
+        pos.unrealizedPnl = (currentBar.close - pos.avgEntryPrice) * pos.quantity;
+      }
+      positionValue += pos.currentPrice * pos.quantity;
+    }
+    portfolio.equity = portfolio.cash + positionValue;
+  }
+
+  private computeResults(
+    strategyName: string,
+    equityCurve: Array<{ timestamp: string; equity: number }>,
+    trades: Array<{ pnl: number; commission: number; slippage: number }>,
+    walkForwardWindows: WalkForwardWindow[],
+    totalCommissions: number,
+    totalSlippage: number
+  ): BacktestResult {
+    const returns = equityCurve.map((e, i) =>
+      i === 0 ? 0 : (e.equity - equityCurve[i - 1].equity) / equityCurve[i - 1].equity
+    ).slice(1);
+
+    const avgReturn = returns.reduce((s, r) => s + r, 0) / (returns.length || 1);
+    const stdReturn = Math.sqrt(
+      returns.reduce((s, r) => s + (r - avgReturn) ** 2, 0) / (returns.length || 1)
+    );
+
+    // Max drawdown
+    let peak = equityCurve[0]?.equity ?? 0;
+    let maxDrawdown = 0;
+    let maxDrawdownDuration = 0;
+    let currentDrawdownDuration = 0;
+
+    for (const point of equityCurve) {
+      if (point.equity > peak) {
+        peak = point.equity;
+        currentDrawdownDuration = 0;
+      } else {
+        const dd = (peak - point.equity) / peak;
+        if (dd > maxDrawdown) maxDrawdown = dd;
+        currentDrawdownDuration++;
+        if (currentDrawdownDuration > maxDrawdownDuration) {
+          maxDrawdownDuration = currentDrawdownDuration;
+        }
+      }
+    }
+
+    const initialEquity = equityCurve[0]?.equity ?? 1;
+    const finalEquity = equityCurve[equityCurve.length - 1]?.equity ?? 1;
+    const totalReturn = (finalEquity - initialEquity) / initialEquity;
+    const barsPerYear = 252; // Trading days
+    const years = (equityCurve.length || 1) / barsPerYear;
+
+    const wins = trades.filter(t => t.pnl > 0);
+    const losses = trades.filter(t => t.pnl < 0);
+    const grossWins = wins.reduce((s, t) => s + t.pnl, 0);
+    const grossLosses = Math.abs(losses.reduce((s, t) => s + t.pnl, 0));
+
+    return {
+      strategy: strategyName,
+      config: this.config,
+      equityCurve,
+      totalReturn,
+      annualizedReturn: (1 + totalReturn) ** (1 / years) - 1,
+      sharpeRatio: stdReturn > 0 ? (avgReturn / stdReturn) * Math.sqrt(barsPerYear) : 0,
+      maxDrawdown,
+      maxDrawdownDuration,
+      winRate: trades.length > 0 ? wins.length / trades.length : 0,
+      profitFactor: grossLosses > 0 ? grossWins / grossLosses : grossWins > 0 ? Infinity : 0,
+      totalTrades: trades.length,
+      avgWin: wins.length > 0 ? grossWins / wins.length : 0,
+      avgLoss: losses.length > 0 ? grossLosses / losses.length : 0,
+      walkForwardWindows,
+      totalCommissions,
+      totalSlippage,
+    };
+  }
+}
+
+export type {
+  OHLCV, Signal, SignalSide, Position, Portfolio, Strategy,
+  SlippageModel, CommissionModel, BacktestConfig, BacktestResult, WalkForwardWindow,
+};
+export {
+  BacktestEngine, validateNoLookahead,
+  computeSlippage, computeCommission,
+};
+
+// ── Framework Adaptations ───────────────────────────────
+//
+// === Python (vectorbt) ===
+//
+//   import vectorbt as vbt
+//   import pandas as pd
+//
+//   # vectorbt is vectorized — much faster than event-driven for simple strategies
+//   price = pd.read_csv("data.csv", parse_dates=["timestamp"], index_col="timestamp")["close"]
+//
+//   # Walk-forward: split into train/test windows
+//   (in_price, out_price) = price.vbt.rolling_split(
+//       n=10, window_len=252, set_lens=(0.7, 0.3)
+//   )
+//
+//   # Run strategy on out-of-sample only
+//   fast_ma = vbt.MA.run(out_price, window=10)
+//   slow_ma = vbt.MA.run(out_price, window=50)
+//   entries = fast_ma.ma_crossed_above(slow_ma)
+//   exits = fast_ma.ma_crossed_below(slow_ma)
+//
+//   pf = vbt.Portfolio.from_signals(out_price, entries, exits,
+//       init_cash=100000, fees=0.001, slippage=0.001)
+//   print(pf.stats())  # Sharpe, max drawdown, win rate, etc.
+//
+// === Python (backtrader) ===
+//
+//   import backtrader as bt
+//
+//   class MyStrategy(bt.Strategy):
+//       def __init__(self):
+//           self.sma_fast = bt.indicators.SMA(period=10)
+//           self.sma_slow = bt.indicators.SMA(period=50)
+//
+//       def next(self):
+//           # next() only sees current and past data — backtrader enforces this
+//           if self.sma_fast > self.sma_slow and not self.position:
+//               self.buy(size=self.broker.getcash() * 0.95 / self.data.close[0])
+//           elif self.sma_fast < self.sma_slow and self.position:
+//               self.sell()
+//
+//   cerebro = bt.Cerebro()
+//   cerebro.addstrategy(MyStrategy)
+//   cerebro.adddata(bt.feeds.GenericCSVData(dataname="data.csv"))
+//   cerebro.broker.setcash(100000)
+//   cerebro.broker.setcommission(commission=0.001)
+//   cerebro.addanalyzer(bt.analyzers.SharpeRatio)
+//   cerebro.addanalyzer(bt.analyzers.DrawDown)
+//   results = cerebro.run()
+//
+//   # Survivorship bias: load ALL instruments (including delisted) via custom data feed
+//   # Walk-forward: use bt.TimeReturn + manual window slicing
+//   # Slippage: cerebro.broker.set_slippage_perc(perc=0.001)