switchroom 0.21.10 → 0.21.12

package/telegram-plugin/tests/escalation-staleness.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,1275 @@
+import { describe, it, expect, beforeEach } from "vitest";
+import {
+  answeredSinceOpen,
+  createEscalationSettleGate,
+  resolveEscalateSettleMs,
+  resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs,
+  OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT,
+  OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_MAX,
+  OBLIGATION_REROUTE_MATCH_MS_MAX,
+  REROUTE_MATCH_GRACE_MS,
+} from "../gateway/escalation-staleness.js";
+import {
+  createAnswerRouteOverrides,
+  answerRouteOverrides,
+} from "../gateway/answer-route-overrides.js";
+import {
+  resolveAnswerThreadId,
+  isCrossChatAnchor,
+} from "../gateway/answer-thread-resolve.js";
+import { formatReplyRouteLog } from "../gateway/reply-route-log.js";
+import { ObligationLedger } from "../gateway/obligation-ledger.js";
+import { createObligationWiring } from "../gateway/obligation-wiring.js";
+
+// Regression suite for the false "⚠️ I may have missed an earlier message"
+// escalation that lands ON TOP of an answer the user already received — and for
+// the opposite failure the fix must not introduce, where a genuinely unanswered
+// message is silently closed by someone else's answer.
+//
+// Both defects were confirmed in marko's gateway-supervisor.log. Only ids,
+// topics and timings are reproduced here; no chat id and no message bodies.
+//
+//   1. REROUTED ANSWER (2026-08-10 06:36). Obligation `…:4#5191` lived in thread
+//      4; the model addressed its reply to thread 4 and the framework's topic
+//      authority overrode that to thread 635 — logged
+//      `EXPLICIT_OVERRIDDEN(model→4,routed→635)` at 06:36:07.921. The
+//      thread-4-keyed staleness check never saw the answer and the nag fired
+//      126 ms later at 06:36:08.047.
+//
+//   2. NO SETTLE (2026-08-10 06:36 and 07:52). The answer was still in flight at
+//      the moment the sweep decided — the reply tool had been invoked but the
+//      history row did not exist yet. Decision 06:36:08.047 → delivery
+//      06:36:09.281 (1,234 ms) and decision 07:52:34.400 → delivery
+//      07:52:37.209 (2,809 ms).
+//
+// And the two invariants the fix must NOT break:
+//
+//   - 2026-08-12 09:08, where the agent genuinely had not answered — its real
+//     reply landed 41,331 ms after the escalation decision. That obligation must
+//     still escalate.
+//   - 2026-08-13 04:03, where obligation `…:4#5462` (thread 4, opened
+//     03:50:02.807) escalated at 04:03:06.140. Its window holds THREE
+//     `EXPLICIT_OVERRIDDEN(model→4,routed→3)` records (03:50:44.201,
+//     03:51:43.108, 03:53:11.225) AND a later, unrelated 295-char delivery in
+//     thread 3 at 04:02:51.987 answering a DIFFERENT question (`via=origin` to
+//     turn `…:3#5480`). Topic 4's message was genuinely unanswered, so this
+//     obligation MUST escalate. It is the counter-example that kills both weaker
+//     fallbacks: chat-wide, and override-gated-but-cut-at-`openedAt` (which
+//     pairs the 03:53 override with the 04:02 delivery). The newest override is
+//     594.8 s stale at the decision, so the freshness window rejects it.
+
+const CHAT = "-100999";
+const OBLIGATION_THREAD = 4;
+const ROUTED_THREAD = 635; // the router's `EXPLICIT_OVERRIDDEN(model→4,routed→635)` reroute
+const UNRELATED_THREAD = 3;
+// A separate intended topic for the end-to-end counter-example, so its entries
+// in the process-wide override registry cannot collide with another test's.
+const THREAD_D = 44;
+
+/**
+ * The history table as the module sees it. `threadId === undefined` from the
+ * caller means CHAT scope; `untilMs` is the reroute fallback's UPPER bound —
+ * modelled here, not ignored, or every test that depends on it passes vacuously.
+ */
+type HistoryStub = (
+  chatId: string,
+  sinceMs: number,
+  threadId?: number | null,
+  untilMs?: number,
+) => boolean;
+
+/**
+ * Models the real history predicate: an assistant row delivered at `deliveredAt`
+ * under `thread`.
+ */
+function historyWithAnswer(deliveredAt: number, thread: number | null): HistoryStub {
+  return (chatId, sinceMs, threadId, untilMs): boolean => {
+    if (chatId !== CHAT) return false;
+    if (threadId !== undefined && threadId !== thread) return false;
+    if (untilMs != null && deliveredAt > untilMs) return false;
+    return deliveredAt >= sinceMs;
+  };
+}
+
+/**
+ * Fan ONE history stub out into the two deps `answeredSinceOpen` takes, exactly
+ * as obligation-wiring does: the obligation's own topic is queried open-ended,
+ * the reroute fallback is queried bounded at both ends.
+ */
+function historyDeps(stub: HistoryStub) {
+  return {
+    hasOutboundDeliveredSince: (chatId: string, sinceMs: number, threadId?: number | null) =>
+      stub(chatId, sinceMs, threadId),
+    hasOutboundDeliveredBetween: (
+      chatId: string,
+      sinceMs: number,
+      untilMs: number,
+      threadId?: number | null,
+    ) => stub(chatId, sinceMs, threadId, untilMs),
+  };
+}
+
+/** A route-override registry pre-loaded with one recorded reroute. */
+function overridesWithReroute(
+  intendedThreadId: number,
+  routedThreadId: number | undefined,
+  atMs: number,
+  chatId = CHAT,
+) {
+  const reg = createAnswerRouteOverrides();
+  reg.note({
+    chatId,
+    enabled: true,
+    explicitThreadId: intendedThreadId,
+    anchored: true,
+    routedThreadId,
+    nowMs: atMs,
+  });
+  return reg;
+}
+
+const NO_OVERRIDES = createAnswerRouteOverrides();
+
+// `answerRouteOverrides` is a process-wide module singleton and the end-to-end
+// scenarios below note real records into it with wall-clock timestamps. Reset it
+// before every test so no scenario inherits (or silently depends on) another's.
+beforeEach(() => {
+  answerRouteOverrides.clear();
+});
+
+/** The reroute-fallback deps, with the freshness window the sweep really uses. */
+function stalenessDeps(over: {
+  hasOutboundDeliveredSince: HistoryStub;
+  routeOverrides: Parameters<typeof answeredSinceOpen>[1]["routeOverrides"];
+  nowMs?: number;
+  historyEnabled?: boolean;
+  rerouteMatchWindowMs?: number;
+}) {
+  return {
+    historyEnabled: over.historyEnabled ?? true,
+    ...historyDeps(over.hasOutboundDeliveredSince),
+    routeOverrides: over.routeOverrides,
+    anchorMs: over.nowMs ?? 2_000,
+    rerouteMatchWindowMs:
+      over.rerouteMatchWindowMs ??
+      resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT),
+  };
+}
+
+describe("answerRouteOverrides — records only genuine explicit-thread overrides", () => {
+  it("records the reroute the router logs as EXPLICIT_OVERRIDDEN", () => {
+    const reg = createAnswerRouteOverrides();
+    expect(
+      reg.note({
+        chatId: CHAT,
+        enabled: true,
+        explicitThreadId: 4,
+        anchored: true,
+        routedThreadId: 635,
+        nowMs: 1000,
+      }),
+    ).toBe(true);
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, 4, 0)).toEqual([{ routedThreadId: 635, atMs: 1000 }]);
+  });
+
+  it("maps a chat-root routing to an explicit NULL thread, never to 'any thread'", () => {
+    // 2026-08-10 07:52: `EXPLICIT_OVERRIDDEN(model→3,routed→-)`; recordOutbound
+    // writes `thread_id IS NULL` for a threadless send.
+    const reg = overridesWithReroute(3, undefined, 1000);
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, 3, 0)).toEqual([{ routedThreadId: null, atMs: 1000 }]);
+  });
+
+  it("does NOT record when the routing agreed with the model", () => {
+    const reg = createAnswerRouteOverrides();
+    expect(
+      reg.note({
+        chatId: CHAT,
+        enabled: true,
+        explicitThreadId: 4,
+        anchored: true,
+        routedThreadId: 4,
+        nowMs: 1000,
+      }),
+    ).toBe(false);
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, 4, 0)).toEqual([]);
+  });
+
+  it("does NOT record when the model named no topic, or no anchor could override it", () => {
+    const reg = createAnswerRouteOverrides();
+    const base = { chatId: CHAT, enabled: true, routedThreadId: 635, nowMs: 1000 };
+    expect(reg.note({ ...base, explicitThreadId: undefined, anchored: true })).toBe(false);
+    expect(reg.note({ ...base, explicitThreadId: 4, anchored: false })).toBe(false);
+    expect(reg.note({ ...base, explicitThreadId: 4, anchored: true, enabled: false })).toBe(false);
+    expect(reg.size()).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  it("scopes by chat and by intended thread", () => {
+    const reg = overridesWithReroute(4, 635, 1000);
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince("-100777", 4, 0)).toEqual([]);
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, 3, 0)).toEqual([]);
+  });
+
+  it("ignores an override older than the caller's freshness floor", () => {
+    const reg = overridesWithReroute(4, 635, 1000);
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, 4, 5000)).toEqual([]);
+  });
+
+  it("returns the EARLIEST in-window record per routed thread (the widest correct cutoff)", () => {
+    // 2026-08-13 shape: three overrides, same intended topic, same routed topic.
+    const reg = createAnswerRouteOverrides();
+    for (const atMs of [1000, 1500, 2000]) {
+      reg.note({
+        chatId: CHAT,
+        enabled: true,
+        explicitThreadId: 4,
+        anchored: true,
+        routedThreadId: 3,
+        nowMs: atMs,
+      });
+    }
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, 4, 0)).toEqual([{ routedThreadId: 3, atMs: 1000 }]);
+    // With a later floor, the earliest SURVIVING record wins.
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, 4, 1600)).toEqual([{ routedThreadId: 3, atMs: 2000 }]);
+  });
+
+  it("clear() drops every record (the process-wide singleton's test reset)", () => {
+    const reg = overridesWithReroute(4, 635, 1000);
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, 4, 0)).toHaveLength(1);
+    reg.clear();
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, 4, 0)).toEqual([]);
+    expect(reg.newestOverrideSince(CHAT, 4, 0)).toBeUndefined();
+    expect(reg.size()).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  it("newestOverrideSince returns the LATEST in-window record, not the earliest", () => {
+    const reg = createAnswerRouteOverrides();
+    for (const atMs of [1000, 1500, 2000]) {
+      reg.note({
+        chatId: CHAT,
+        enabled: true,
+        explicitThreadId: 4,
+        anchored: true,
+        routedThreadId: 3,
+        nowMs: atMs,
+      });
+    }
+    // `routedOverridesSince` deliberately yields the earliest (widest cutoff);
+    // the diagnostic asks the opposite question — how NEAR the miss was.
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, 4, 0)[0]?.atMs).toBe(1000);
+    expect(reg.newestOverrideSince(CHAT, 4, 0)).toEqual({ routedThreadId: 3, atMs: 2000 });
+    expect(reg.newestOverrideSince(CHAT, 4, 2500)).toBeUndefined();
+    expect(reg.newestOverrideSince(CHAT, 99, 0)).toBeUndefined();
+  });
+
+  it("bounds both the key count and the per-key history", () => {
+    const reg = createAnswerRouteOverrides(3, 2);
+    for (let i = 0; i < 20; i++) {
+      reg.note({
+        chatId: `chat-${i}`,
+        enabled: true,
+        explicitThreadId: 4,
+        anchored: true,
+        routedThreadId: 635,
+        nowMs: i,
+      });
+    }
+    expect(reg.size()).toBeLessThanOrEqual(3);
+    for (let i = 0; i < 20; i++) {
+      reg.note({
+        chatId: CHAT,
+        enabled: true,
+        explicitThreadId: 4,
+        anchored: true,
+        routedThreadId: i,
+        nowMs: i,
+      });
+    }
+    expect(reg.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, 4, 0).length).toBeLessThanOrEqual(2);
+  });
+});
+
+describe("answeredSinceOpen — a REROUTED answer stands the escalation down", () => {
+  it("counts an answer the router recorded as rerouted out of this topic (2026-08-10 06:36)", () => {
+    // Pre-fix this asked history for thread 4 only, found nothing, and nagged.
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 1000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(2000, ROUTED_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: overridesWithReroute(OBLIGATION_THREAD, ROUTED_THREAD, 1500),
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered).toEqual({ answered: true, via: "reroute", routedThreadId: ROUTED_THREAD });
+  });
+
+  it("counts an answer rerouted to the chat ROOT (2026-08-10 07:52)", () => {
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 1000, threadId: 3 },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(2000, null),
+        routeOverrides: overridesWithReroute(3, undefined, 1500),
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered).toEqual({ answered: true, via: "reroute", routedThreadId: null });
+  });
+
+  it("still counts a same-thread answer (the pre-existing behaviour is preserved)", () => {
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 1000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(2000, OBLIGATION_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: NO_OVERRIDES,
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered).toEqual({ answered: true, via: "thread" });
+  });
+
+  it("does NOT count an unrelated answer in ANOTHER topic with no reroute on record (2026-08-13 04:03)", () => {
+    // The whole point of the override gate: topic 3's answer to a DIFFERENT
+    // question must not close topic 4's genuinely-unanswered obligation.
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 1000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(2000, UNRELATED_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: NO_OVERRIDES,
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered).toEqual({ answered: false, via: null });
+  });
+
+  it("does NOT pair a STALE override with a later unrelated delivery (2026-08-13 04:03)", () => {
+    // The real 4#5462 shape, and the one an `openedAt` cutoff gets WRONG.
+    // Opened at 0. Overrides model→4,routed→3 at 41s / 100s / 188s. The
+    // delivery in thread 3 is at 769s — a DIFFERENT question's answer, 594.8s
+    // after the newest override. Decision at 783s.
+    const NOW = 783_000;
+    const reg = createAnswerRouteOverrides();
+    for (const atMs of [41_394, 100_301, 188_418]) {
+      reg.note({
+        chatId: CHAT,
+        enabled: true,
+        explicitThreadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD,
+        anchored: true,
+        routedThreadId: UNRELATED_THREAD,
+        nowMs: atMs,
+      });
+    }
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 0, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(769_180, UNRELATED_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: reg,
+        nowMs: NOW,
+      }),
+    );
+    // Cut at `openedAt` this reads {answered: true, via: "reroute"} and the
+    // user's message is dropped in silence.
+    expect(answered.answered).toBe(false);
+    expect(answered.via).toBe(null);
+    // …and the rejection is reported rather than silent (594.6s stale).
+    expect(answered.staleOverrideAgeMs).toBe(NOW - 188_418);
+  });
+
+  it("DOES follow an override that is still fresh, from the override's own instant", () => {
+    // Same shape, but the decision happens while the override is still inside
+    // the window — the 2026-08-10 case, re-checked after a settle deferral.
+    const NOW = 188_418 + OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT + 1_000;
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 0, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(189_800, UNRELATED_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: overridesWithReroute(OBLIGATION_THREAD, UNRELATED_THREAD, 188_418),
+        nowMs: NOW,
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered).toEqual({
+      answered: true,
+      via: "reroute",
+      routedThreadId: UNRELATED_THREAD,
+    });
+  });
+
+  it("does NOT accept a delivery that PREDATES the override it is paired with", () => {
+    // The override is fresh, but the only delivery in the routed thread landed
+    // before that routing decision — it cannot be the answer it produced.
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 1_000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(4_999, ROUTED_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: overridesWithReroute(OBLIGATION_THREAD, ROUTED_THREAD, 5_000),
+        nowMs: 6_000,
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered.answered).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("does NOT accept a delivery that lands long AFTER a still-fresh override", () => {
+    // The other end of the same bound, and the one #4681 was missing. The
+    // override is fresh at `anchorMs` (which is the settle gate's `firstAt`, so
+    // it stays fresh however long the sweep is starved), but the only delivery
+    // in the routed thread landed 90s after that routing decision — far outside
+    // the window in which the answer it produced could have landed. It is
+    // someone else's answer.
+    const WINDOW = resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT);
+    const OVERRIDE_AT = 10_000;
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 1_000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(OVERRIDE_AT + 90_000, ROUTED_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: overridesWithReroute(OBLIGATION_THREAD, ROUTED_THREAD, OVERRIDE_AT),
+        // Anchored at the first "unanswered" read, so the override IS fresh.
+        nowMs: OVERRIDE_AT + 100,
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered.answered).toBe(false);
+    // …and one that lands at the very edge of the window still counts, so the
+    // bound is a bound and not a blanket refusal.
+    expect(
+      answeredSinceOpen(
+        { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 1_000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+        stalenessDeps({
+          hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(OVERRIDE_AT + WINDOW, ROUTED_THREAD),
+          routeOverrides: overridesWithReroute(OBLIGATION_THREAD, ROUTED_THREAD, OVERRIDE_AT),
+          nowMs: OVERRIDE_AT + 100,
+        }),
+      ),
+    ).toEqual({ answered: true, via: "reroute", routedThreadId: ROUTED_THREAD });
+  });
+
+  it("does NOT follow a reroute recorded for a DIFFERENT topic", () => {
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 1000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(2000, ROUTED_THREAD),
+        // The override belongs to topic 3's answer, not topic 4's.
+        routeOverrides: overridesWithReroute(UNRELATED_THREAD, ROUTED_THREAD, 1500),
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered.answered).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("does NOT follow a reroute that PREDATES the obligation", () => {
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 5000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(6000, ROUTED_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: overridesWithReroute(OBLIGATION_THREAD, ROUTED_THREAD, 1500),
+        nowMs: 6000,
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered.answered).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("does NOT count an answer in a DIFFERENT chat", () => {
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: "-100777", openedAt: 1000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(2000, ROUTED_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: overridesWithReroute(OBLIGATION_THREAD, ROUTED_THREAD, 1500),
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered.answered).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("does NOT count an answer that PREDATES the obligation", () => {
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 5000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(2000, OBLIGATION_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: NO_OVERRIDES,
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered.answered).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("reports WHY the fallback found nothing when a record existed but was stale", () => {
+    // Negative-path telemetry. "No override on record" and "an override was on
+    // record and the freshness bound rejected it" are operationally different —
+    // the second is the bound doing its job (or being mis-tuned), and without a
+    // signal the 18.5s window is unmeasurable in production. Same 2026-08-13
+    // shape: newest override 188_418, decision 783_000 → 594.6s stale.
+    const reg = createAnswerRouteOverrides();
+    for (const atMs of [41_394, 100_301, 188_418]) {
+      reg.note({
+        chatId: CHAT,
+        enabled: true,
+        explicitThreadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD,
+        anchored: true,
+        routedThreadId: UNRELATED_THREAD,
+        nowMs: atMs,
+      });
+    }
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 0, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(769_180, UNRELATED_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: reg,
+        nowMs: 783_000,
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered.answered).toBe(false);
+    // The NEWEST rejected record's age — the near-miss the bound must be judged on.
+    expect(answered.staleOverrideAgeMs).toBe(783_000 - 188_418);
+  });
+
+  it("reports NO stale-override age when there was simply no record to reject", () => {
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 1000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(2000, UNRELATED_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: NO_OVERRIDES,
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered).toEqual({ answered: false, via: null });
+  });
+
+  it("a ZERO reroute-match window disables the fallback outright (kill switch)", () => {
+    // The fallback is the one new mechanism that can silently close a genuinely
+    // unanswered obligation, so it needs its own off-switch — and the switch
+    // must mean "no fallback", not "a zero-width window an override recorded at
+    // this very instant still slips through".
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 1_000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(6_000, ROUTED_THREAD),
+        routeOverrides: overridesWithReroute(OBLIGATION_THREAD, ROUTED_THREAD, 6_000),
+        nowMs: 6_000,
+        rerouteMatchWindowMs: 0,
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered).toEqual({ answered: false, via: null });
+  });
+
+  it("reports not-answered when history is unavailable (never suppresses on doubt)", () => {
+    const answered = answeredSinceOpen(
+      { chatId: CHAT, openedAt: 1000, threadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD },
+      stalenessDeps({
+        hasOutboundDeliveredSince: () => true,
+        routeOverrides: NO_OVERRIDES,
+        historyEnabled: false,
+      }),
+    );
+    expect(answered.answered).toBe(false);
+  });
+});
+
+describe("createEscalationSettleGate — the nudge waits out an in-flight answer", () => {
+  const ID = "-100999:4#5462";
+  const OPENED = 111;
+
+  it("defers the FIRST decision and proceeds only after the settle window", () => {
+    const gate = createEscalationSettleGate(8_500);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 0, OPENED)).toBe(true); // first look — settle
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 5_000, OPENED)).toBe(true); // next 5s sweep, still settling
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 8_499, OPENED)).toBe(true);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 8_500, OPENED)).toBe(false); // window elapsed → escalate
+  });
+
+  it("is disabled by a zero window (kill switch → pre-fix immediate escalate)", () => {
+    const gate = createEscalationSettleGate(0);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 0, OPENED)).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("clear() forgets the episode so a later escalate settles afresh", () => {
+    const gate = createEscalationSettleGate(8_500);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 0, OPENED)).toBe(true);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 9_000, OPENED)).toBe(false);
+    gate.clear(ID);
+    expect(gate.size()).toBe(0);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 10_000, OPENED)).toBe(true); // fresh window, not stale-proceed
+  });
+
+  it("a RE-OPENED obligation under the same origin id gets its own fresh window", () => {
+    const gate = createEscalationSettleGate(8_500);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 0, OPENED)).toBe(true);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 9_000, OPENED)).toBe(false); // episode 1 escalates
+    // Re-opened: a new openedAt. Its first decision must NOT inherit episode 1's
+    // elapsed window and skip the re-check.
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 9_100, OPENED + 1)).toBe(true);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 17_599, OPENED + 1)).toBe(true);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 17_600, OPENED + 1)).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("tracks obligations independently", () => {
+    const gate = createEscalationSettleGate(8_500);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer("a", 0, OPENED)).toBe(true);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer("b", 8_000, OPENED)).toBe(true);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer("a", 9_000, OPENED)).toBe(false); // a's window elapsed
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer("b", 9_000, OPENED)).toBe(true); // b's has not
+  });
+
+  it("a backwards clock jump re-anchors instead of pinning the gate open forever", () => {
+    const gate = createEscalationSettleGate(8_500);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 100_000, OPENED)).toBe(true);
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 10_000, OPENED)).toBe(true); // jumped back → re-anchor
+    expect(gate.shouldDefer(ID, 18_500, OPENED)).toBe(false); // one window from the new anchor
+  });
+
+  it("bounds its id map (a long-lived gateway cannot grow it without limit)", () => {
+    const gate = createEscalationSettleGate(8_500, 4);
+    for (let i = 0; i < 50; i++) gate.shouldDefer(`id-${i}`, i, OPENED);
+    expect(gate.size()).toBeLessThanOrEqual(4);
+  });
+});
+
+describe("resolveEscalateSettleMs", () => {
+  it("defaults to the derived window", () => {
+    expect(resolveEscalateSettleMs({})).toBe(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT);
+  });
+  it("honours an explicit 0 kill switch", () => {
+    expect(resolveEscalateSettleMs({ SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS: "0" })).toBe(0);
+  });
+  it("falls back to the default on garbage rather than disabling the guard", () => {
+    expect(resolveEscalateSettleMs({ SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS: "soon" })).toBe(
+      OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT,
+    );
+    expect(resolveEscalateSettleMs({ SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS: "-1" })).toBe(
+      OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT,
+    );
+  });
+  it("clamps an absurd window so a config typo cannot suppress escalation for a day", () => {
+    expect(
+      resolveEscalateSettleMs({ SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS: "85000000" }),
+    ).toBe(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_MAX);
+    expect(
+      resolveEscalateSettleMs({ SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS: "Infinity" }),
+    ).toBe(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT); // not finite → default, not clamp
+  });
+  it("passes a deliberate in-range tuning through untouched", () => {
+    expect(resolveEscalateSettleMs({ SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS: "20000" })).toBe(
+      20_000,
+    );
+  });
+  it("treats a WHITESPACE-ONLY value as unset, not as the kill switch", () => {
+    // `Number(' ') === 0`, so a bare `=== ''` check lets a stray `KEY=" "` in an
+    // env file silently disable the guard with no log. Empty and whitespace must
+    // mean the same thing: unset.
+    for (const raw of [" ", "  ", "\t", "\n"]) {
+      expect(resolveEscalateSettleMs({ SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS: raw })).toBe(
+        OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT,
+      );
+    }
+  });
+});
+
+describe("resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs — how stale an override may be", () => {
+  it("tracks the settle window, because the consulting decision comes after it", () => {
+    expect(resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT)).toBe(
+      OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT + REROUTE_MATCH_GRACE_MS,
+    );
+    expect(resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(20_000)).toBe(20_000 + REROUTE_MATCH_GRACE_MS);
+  });
+
+  it("still allows a window with the settle gate killed (decision is immediate)", () => {
+    expect(resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(0)).toBe(REROUTE_MATCH_GRACE_MS);
+    expect(resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(-5_000)).toBe(REROUTE_MATCH_GRACE_MS);
+  });
+
+  it("stays far below the observed false-pairing gap and far above the real ones", () => {
+    const w = resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT);
+    expect(w).toBeGreaterThan(2_809); // worst real override→delivery lag, with margin
+    expect(w).toBeLessThan(594_800); // 2026-08-13's stale-override→unrelated-delivery gap
+  });
+
+  it("has its OWN kill switch — SETTLE_MS=0 does not disable the fallback", () => {
+    // The settle gate's kill switch only disables the settle gate. The reroute
+    // fallback is a separate mechanism with a separate failure mode (it can
+    // close a genuinely unanswered obligation SILENTLY), so it gets its own
+    // off-switch. Every sibling guard in this family already has one.
+    expect(
+      resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(0, { SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS: "0" }),
+    ).toBe(REROUTE_MATCH_GRACE_MS); // still live — the settle switch is not this switch
+    expect(
+      resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT, {
+        SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_REROUTE_MATCH_MS: "0",
+      }),
+    ).toBe(0); // and this one really does turn it off
+  });
+
+  it("passes a deliberate override through, and falls back to the derivation on garbage", () => {
+    const derived = resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT);
+    expect(
+      resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT, {
+        SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_REROUTE_MATCH_MS: "5000",
+      }),
+    ).toBe(5_000);
+    // Whitespace-only is UNSET, not the kill switch: `Number(' ') === 0`, so a
+    // bare `=== ''` check lets a stray `KEY=" "` turn the fallback off silently.
+    for (const raw of ["", " ", "  ", "\t", "\n", "soon", "-1", "Infinity"]) {
+      expect(
+        resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT, {
+          SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_REROUTE_MATCH_MS: raw,
+        }),
+      ).toBe(derived);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("clamps an absurd override so a typo cannot widen the silent-close window for a day", () => {
+    expect(
+      resolveRerouteMatchWindowMs(OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT, {
+        SWITCHROOM_OBLIGATION_REROUTE_MATCH_MS: "85000000",
+      }),
+    ).toBe(OBLIGATION_REROUTE_MATCH_MS_MAX);
+  });
+});
+
+// End-to-end through the real sweep: the assertion is the OUTCOME the user sees —
+// did the "I may have missed this" nudge go out, and was the obligation closed?
+describe("obligationSweep escalate branch — nag only when the answer really is missing", () => {
+  const ORIGIN = `${CHAT}:${OBLIGATION_THREAD}#5462`;
+
+  function makeWiring(opts: { ledger: ObligationLedger; hasOutboundDeliveredSince: HistoryStub }) {
+    const nudges: string[] = [];
+    const deps = {
+      OBLIGATION_LEDGER_ENABLED: true,
+      HISTORY_ENABLED: true,
+      OBLIGATION_BACKGROUND_WORK_GRACE_MS: 0,
+      OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_GRACE_MS: 0,
+      OBLIGATION_REPRESENT_GRACE_MS: 0,
+      OBLIGATION_REPRESENT_MAX: 2,
+      OBLIGATION_REPRESENT_GUARD_MIN_REPLY_CHARS: 1,
+      OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_MAX: 3,
+      OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SEND_DEADLINE_MS: 10_000,
+      obligationLedger: opts.ledger,
+      obligationEscalateInFlight: new Set<string>(),
+      pendingCrossTurnGate: { set: () => {} },
+      pendingInboundBuffer: { depth: () => 0, push: () => true },
+      capturedResume: { dispatch: () => {} },
+      getCurrentTurn: () => null,
+      turnInFlightForGate: () => false,
+      agentHasInFlightBackgroundWork: () => false,
+      // The REAL history signature the gateway injects — `minChars` 4th,
+      // `untilMs` 5th — so obligation-wiring's own bounded-query adapter is under
+      // test here, not bypassed by a convenience stub.
+      hasOutboundDeliveredSince: (
+        chatId: string,
+        sinceMs: number,
+        threadId?: number | null,
+        _minChars?: number,
+        untilMs?: number,
+      ) => opts.hasOutboundDeliveredSince(chatId, sinceMs, threadId, untilMs),
+      findTurnByOriginId: () => undefined,
+      bridgeAlive: () => true,
+      sendEscalationNudge: (o: { originTurnId: string }) => {
+        nudges.push(o.originTurnId);
+        return Promise.resolve();
+      },
+    };
+    const wiring = createObligationWiring(
+      deps as unknown as Parameters<typeof createObligationWiring>[0],
+    );
+    return { wiring, nudges };
+  }
+
+  /** Open an obligation whose represent ladder is already exhausted → escalate. */
+  function openExhausted(
+    ledger: ObligationLedger,
+    openedAt: number,
+    origin = ORIGIN,
+    threadId = OBLIGATION_THREAD,
+  ): void {
+    ledger.openIfAbsent({
+      originTurnId: origin,
+      chatId: CHAT,
+      threadId,
+      messageId: 5462,
+      text: "synthetic fixture question about the widget report",
+      openedAt,
+    });
+    ledger.markRepresented(origin);
+    ledger.markRepresented(origin); // count == max → decideAtIdle returns 'escalate'
+  }
+
+  it("(b) an answer the router RECORDED as rerouted out of this topic suppresses the nudge", () => {
+    // 2026-08-10 06:36 reproduction. Pre-fix: the thread-4 query misses the
+    // thread-635 answer and the nag fires. Post-fix: closed silently, no nudge.
+    const ledger = new ObligationLedger(2);
+    const openedAt = Date.now() - 60_000;
+    const { wiring, nudges } = makeWiring({
+      ledger,
+      hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(Date.now() - 14_200, ROUTED_THREAD),
+    });
+    answerRouteOverrides.note({
+      chatId: CHAT,
+      enabled: true,
+      explicitThreadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD,
+      anchored: true,
+      routedThreadId: ROUTED_THREAD,
+      nowMs: Date.now() - 14_300,
+    });
+    openExhausted(ledger, openedAt);
+
+    wiring.obligationSweep();
+
+    expect(nudges).toEqual([]); // the user is NOT nagged on top of their answer
+    expect(ledger.isOpen(ORIGIN)).toBe(false); // closed silently
+  });
+
+  it("(d) a STALE reroute record does NOT license an unrelated later delivery (2026-08-13 04:03)", () => {
+    // The blocker this guard exists for, built to the REAL 4#5462 shape — the
+    // overrides the incident actually had, not a scenario without them:
+    //
+    //   opened      03:50:02.807   (T-783.3s from the escalate decision)
+    //   overrides   03:50:44.201 / 03:51:43.108 / 03:53:11.225  model→4,routed→3
+    //   delivery    04:02:51.987   295 chars, thread 3, a DIFFERENT question
+    //   decision    04:03:06.140
+    //
+    // The newest override is 594.8s stale when the sweep decides. Cut at
+    // `openedAt`, the fallback pairs it with that unrelated delivery, closes
+    // topic 4's obligation silently, and the user's message is dropped with no
+    // nudge and no re-present. It must escalate instead.
+    const ledger = new ObligationLedger(2);
+    const ORIGIN_D = `${CHAT}:${THREAD_D}#5463`;
+    const base = Date.now();
+    const { wiring, nudges } = makeWiring({
+      ledger,
+      // A substantive assistant row in topic 3 — and ONLY in topic 3.
+      hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(base - 14_200, UNRELATED_THREAD),
+    });
+    // The three real overrides, all long stale by the time the sweep decides.
+    for (const ago of [741_900, 683_000, 594_900]) {
+      answerRouteOverrides.note({
+        chatId: CHAT,
+        enabled: true,
+        explicitThreadId: THREAD_D,
+        anchored: true,
+        routedThreadId: UNRELATED_THREAD,
+        nowMs: base - ago,
+      });
+    }
+    openExhausted(ledger, base - 783_300, ORIGIN_D, THREAD_D);
+
+    const realNow = Date.now;
+    try {
+      for (const offset of [0, 5_000, 10_000]) {
+        Date.now = () => base + offset;
+        wiring.obligationSweep();
+      }
+    } finally {
+      Date.now = realNow;
+    }
+
+    expect(nudges).toEqual([ORIGIN_D]); // topic 4's message is NOT silently dropped
+  });
+
+  // The leak guard is a PAIR, and deliberately so. Asserting "the registry is
+  // empty" on its own passes vacuously the moment the tests that write to the
+  // singleton are moved below it — the guard would then be green precisely when
+  // it has stopped guarding. Pinning its own polluter immediately above it makes
+  // it order-independent: whatever else moves, this assertion always runs one
+  // test after a write it can see.
+  it("leak guard 1/2 — pollute the process-wide override registry", () => {
+    // `answerRouteOverrides` is a module singleton and the scenarios here write
+    // to it with wall-clock timestamps, so without a reset (b)'s `CHAT:4` record
+    // is still FRESH when (a) and (c) — same topic — run, and (a)/(c) pass only
+    // because their history stubs happen to reject the routed thread. Loosen a
+    // stub and (b) silently changes another test's outcome.
+    answerRouteOverrides.note({
+      chatId: CHAT,
+      enabled: true,
+      explicitThreadId: OBLIGATION_THREAD,
+      anchored: true,
+      routedThreadId: ROUTED_THREAD,
+      nowMs: Date.now(),
+    });
+    expect(answerRouteOverrides.size()).toBe(1);
+  });
+
+  it("leak guard 2/2 — the NEXT scenario still starts from an EMPTY registry", () => {
+    expect(answerRouteOverrides.routedOverridesSince(CHAT, OBLIGATION_THREAD, 0)).toEqual([]);
+    expect(answerRouteOverrides.size()).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  it("(e) a SKIPPED sweep tick does not turn a fresh reroute record stale (freshness anchor)", () => {
+    // The freshness bound must be anchored to the instant the decision FIRST
+    // read "unanswered" — the settle gate's own `firstAt` — not to whenever the
+    // re-check happens to run. A tick is not merely DELAYED, it can be skipped
+    // outright: `turnInFlightForGate()` (unbounded), the background-work /
+    // session-busy defer (bounded at 20 min), and the escalate/represent graces
+    // all sit ABOVE this branch. The 2026-08-13 log shows the sweep deferring
+    // for minutes at a time.
+    //
+    //   T+0      the router reroutes topic 45's answer to thread 635
+    //   T+0.1    first escalate decision — answer still in flight → settle defer
+    //   T+1.4    the rerouted answer lands in thread 635
+    //   T+107    the next decision that actually RUNS (ticks in between skipped)
+    //
+    // Anchored at the re-check, the record is 107s old, the fallback is skipped
+    // and the user is nagged on top of the answer they already have — the exact
+    // bug this PR exists to fix, surviving for that timing.
+    const THREAD_E = 45;
+    const ORIGIN_E = `${CHAT}:${THREAD_E}#5464`;
+    const ledger = new ObligationLedger(2);
+    const base = Date.now();
+    const DELIVERED_AT = base + 1_400;
+    const { wiring, nudges } = makeWiring({
+      ledger,
+      hasOutboundDeliveredSince: (chatId, sinceMs, threadId, untilMs) =>
+        chatId === CHAT &&
+        (threadId === undefined || threadId === ROUTED_THREAD) &&
+        Date.now() >= DELIVERED_AT &&
+        DELIVERED_AT >= sinceMs &&
+        (untilMs == null || DELIVERED_AT <= untilMs),
+    });
+    answerRouteOverrides.note({
+      chatId: CHAT,
+      enabled: true,
+      explicitThreadId: THREAD_E,
+      anchored: true,
+      routedThreadId: ROUTED_THREAD,
+      nowMs: base,
+    });
+    openExhausted(ledger, base - 60_000, ORIGIN_E, THREAD_E);
+
+    const realNow = Date.now;
+    try {
+      Date.now = () => base + 100;
+      wiring.obligationSweep(); // decision 1 — answer in flight → settle
+      expect(nudges).toEqual([]);
+      // …and now the sweep is starved for 107s by the gates above this branch.
+      Date.now = () => base + 107_000;
+      wiring.obligationSweep();
+    } finally {
+      Date.now = realNow;
+    }
+
+    expect(nudges).toEqual([]); // no nag on top of the delivered answer
+    expect(ledger.isOpen(ORIGIN_E)).toBe(false); // closed silently instead
+  });
+
+  it("(f) a STARVED sweep does not pair a fresh override with a much later unrelated delivery", () => {
+    // The counterpart to (e), and the failure mode the `firstAt` anchor opens if
+    // the DELIVERY is left unbounded. Anchoring the override's freshness at
+    // `firstAt` is correct (see (e)) but it only bounds ONE end: it says the
+    // routing decision was recent WHEN THE QUESTION WAS FIRST ASKED. The history
+    // query is still read at the RE-CHECK, which the gates above this branch can
+    // starve for minutes — so an override that is legitimately fresh licenses a
+    // look at a thread across an arbitrarily long stretch of later traffic.
+    //
+    //   T+0      the model's SHORT reply to topic 47 is rerouted to thread 635.
+    //            Under 200 chars, so it is not a substantive answer and the
+    //            obligation correctly stays open.
+    //   T+0.1    first escalate decision — not answered → settle defer.
+    //            `firstAt` is pinned here for the whole episode.
+    //   T+90     an unrelated >=200-char answer to a DIFFERENT question lands in
+    //            thread 635.
+    //   T+107    the next decision that actually RUNS.
+    //
+    // Anchored at `firstAt` with an open-ended forward query, T+0's override
+    // reads fresh at T+107 and pairs with the T+90 delivery: the obligation is
+    // closed `via=reroute` and topic 47's message is never answered and never
+    // nudged. It must escalate instead. Bounding the delivery to the override's
+    // OWN window keeps (e)'s legitimate 1.4s pairing and kills this 90s one.
+    const THREAD_G = 47;
+    const ORIGIN_G = `${CHAT}:${THREAD_G}#5466`;
+    const ledger = new ObligationLedger(2);
+    const base = Date.now();
+    const UNRELATED_DELIVERED_AT = base + 90_000;
+    const { wiring, nudges } = makeWiring({
+      ledger,
+      // Only the unrelated T+90 row ever exists, and — like the real table — it
+      // is invisible until the instant it is written. Nothing was ever delivered
+      // for topic 47: not in its own thread, not in the routed one.
+      hasOutboundDeliveredSince: (chatId, sinceMs, threadId, untilMs) =>
+        chatId === CHAT &&
+        (threadId === undefined || threadId === ROUTED_THREAD) &&
+        Date.now() >= UNRELATED_DELIVERED_AT &&
+        UNRELATED_DELIVERED_AT >= sinceMs &&
+        (untilMs == null || UNRELATED_DELIVERED_AT <= untilMs),
+    });
+    answerRouteOverrides.note({
+      chatId: CHAT,
+      enabled: true,
+      explicitThreadId: THREAD_G,
+      anchored: true,
+      routedThreadId: ROUTED_THREAD,
+      nowMs: base,
+    });
+    openExhausted(ledger, base - 60_000, ORIGIN_G, THREAD_G);
+
+    const lines: string[] = [];
+    const realWrite = process.stderr.write.bind(process.stderr);
+    const realNow = Date.now;
+    process.stderr.write = ((chunk: string | Uint8Array) => {
+      lines.push(String(chunk));
+      return true;
+    }) as typeof process.stderr.write;
+    try {
+      Date.now = () => base + 100;
+      wiring.obligationSweep(); // decision 1 — nothing delivered yet → settle
+      expect(nudges).toEqual([]);
+      // …starved for 107s by the gates above this branch, exactly as in (e).
+      Date.now = () => base + 107_000;
+      wiring.obligationSweep();
+    } finally {
+      Date.now = realNow;
+      process.stderr.write = realWrite;
+    }
+
+    expect(nudges).toEqual([ORIGIN_G]); // topic 47's message is NOT dropped in silence
+    // …and specifically NOT via the reroute fallback pairing T+0's override with
+    // the T+90 stranger. (`nudges` alone would not distinguish a silent close
+    // from a send that has not resolved yet — the escalate send is async.)
+    expect(
+      lines.filter((l) => l.includes("closed silently") && l.includes(ORIGIN_G)),
+    ).toEqual([]);
+  });
+
+  it("logs the stale-override rejection so the freshness bound is measurable in production", () => {
+    // The `via=reroute` close is logged because the fallback's blast radius must
+    // be observable without a rebuild. The bound that makes the fallback safe
+    // deserves the same: a rejection currently looks identical to "no record".
+    const THREAD_F = 46;
+    const ORIGIN_F = `${CHAT}:${THREAD_F}#5465`;
+    const ledger = new ObligationLedger(2);
+    const base = Date.now();
+    const { wiring } = makeWiring({
+      ledger,
+      hasOutboundDeliveredSince: historyWithAnswer(base - 14_200, UNRELATED_THREAD),
+    });
+    answerRouteOverrides.note({
+      chatId: CHAT,
+      enabled: true,
+      explicitThreadId: THREAD_F,
+      anchored: true,
+      routedThreadId: UNRELATED_THREAD,
+      nowMs: base - 594_900,
+    });
+    openExhausted(ledger, base - 783_300, ORIGIN_F, THREAD_F);
+
+    const lines: string[] = [];
+    const realWrite = process.stderr.write.bind(process.stderr);
+    process.stderr.write = ((chunk: string | Uint8Array) => {
+      lines.push(String(chunk));
+      return true;
+    }) as typeof process.stderr.write;
+    try {
+      wiring.obligationSweep();
+    } finally {
+      process.stderr.write = realWrite;
+    }
+
+    const rejected = lines.find((l) => l.includes("reroute record rejected"));
+    expect(rejected).toBeDefined();
+    expect(rejected).toContain("window=18500ms");
+    expect(rejected).toMatch(/age=59[45]\d{3}ms/);
+  });
+
+  it("(a) an answer that lands while the first escalate decision is settling suppresses the nudge", () => {
+    // 2026-08-10 06:36 / 07:52 reproduction: at the first decision the reply is
+    // in flight and no history row exists yet; it appears ~1-3s later. Pre-fix
+    // the nudge is sent on that very first decision.
+    const ledger = new ObligationLedger(2);
+    const openedAt = Date.now() - 60_000;
+    let answerDelivered = false;
+    const { wiring, nudges } = makeWiring({
+      ledger,
+      // Reads false until the in-flight reply is recorded, then true — in the
+      // obligation's OWN topic, so no reroute record is needed.
+      hasOutboundDeliveredSince: (chatId, sinceMs, threadId, untilMs) =>
+        answerDelivered &&
+        chatId === CHAT &&
+        (threadId === undefined || threadId === OBLIGATION_THREAD) &&
+        Date.now() >= sinceMs &&
+        (untilMs == null || Date.now() <= untilMs),
+    });
+    openExhausted(ledger, openedAt);
+
+    wiring.obligationSweep(); // decision 1 — answer still in flight
+    expect(nudges).toEqual([]); // settling, not sent
+    expect(ledger.isOpen(ORIGIN)).toBe(true); // and not lost
+
+    answerDelivered = true; // the reply's history row lands 1.2s later
+    wiring.obligationSweep(); // next sweep re-checks
+
+    expect(nudges).toEqual([]); // still no nag
+    expect(ledger.isOpen(ORIGIN)).toBe(false); // closed silently instead
+  });
+
+  it("(c) a genuinely unanswered obligation STILL escalates once the settle window elapses", () => {
+    // 2026-08-12 09:08: the agent really had not answered (its reply was 41s
+    // away). The guards must not swallow this — the nudge is the whole point.
+    const ledger = new ObligationLedger(2);
+    const { wiring, nudges } = makeWiring({
+      ledger,
+      hasOutboundDeliveredSince: () => false, // nothing was ever delivered
+    });
+    openExhausted(ledger, Date.now() - 600_000);
+
+    wiring.obligationSweep(); // decision 1 — settles
+    expect(nudges).toEqual([]);
+    expect(ledger.isOpen(ORIGIN)).toBe(true); // held open, not dropped
+
+    // A later sweep, past the settle window. The gate reads the wall clock the
+    // sweep passes it, so advance real time by stubbing Date.now.
+    const realNow = Date.now;
+    try {
+      const t = realNow() + OBLIGATION_ESCALATE_SETTLE_MS_DEFAULT + 1_000;
+      Date.now = () => t;
+      wiring.obligationSweep();
+    } finally {
+      Date.now = realNow;
+    }
+
+    expect(nudges).toEqual([ORIGIN]); // the genuine escalation fires
+  });
+
+  it("the settle deferral is real AND bounded — deferred across the window, then sent", () => {
+    const ledger = new ObligationLedger(2);
+    const { wiring, nudges } = makeWiring({ ledger, hasOutboundDeliveredSince: () => false });
+    openExhausted(ledger, Date.now() - 600_000);
+
+    const realNow = Date.now;
+    const seen: string[][] = [];
+    try {
+      const base = realNow();
+      // Sweep every 5s across the settle window, as the real 5s interval does,
+      // recording what the user had received after each tick.
+      for (const offset of [0, 5_000, 10_000]) {
+        Date.now = () => base + offset;
+        wiring.obligationSweep();
+        seen.push([...nudges]);
+      }
+    } finally {
+      Date.now = realNow;
+    }
+    // The deferral actually happened: nothing sent on the first two ticks, both
+    // inside the 8.5s window. (Without the gate the nudge goes out on tick 1.)
+    expect(seen[0]).toEqual([]);
+    expect(seen[1]).toEqual([]);
+    // And it is bounded: escalated on the first tick past the window.
+    expect(seen[2]).toEqual([ORIGIN]);
+  });
+});
+
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// Drift guard for the #4680 merge. Before #4680 the gateway computed the
+// override boolean ONCE: `answerRouteOverrides.note()` returned it and the
+// telemetry line reused the return value, so the RECORD and the
+// EXPLICIT_OVERRIDDEN marker could not disagree. #4680 extracted the line into
+// the pure `formatReplyRouteLog`, which re-derives the predicate from its own
+// inputs — so there are now TWO copies of the rule and nothing structural
+// keeping them equal. The record is the load-bearing one: obligation escalation
+// closes on it. If it drifts from the marker, the log stops being evidence for
+// what the sweep will do, which is exactly what made the 2026-08-10 incidents
+// take a week to diagnose.
+//
+// This drives BOTH through the REAL router (`resolveAnswerThreadId`), so the
+// routed thread is not a hand-picked constant, and asserts they agree on every
+// combination of authority / explicit topic / anchor chat.
+//
+// TWO THINGS THIS MATRIX DOES NOT PROVE, and where they are proved instead:
+//   1. That the gateway CALLS either side. Every case here re-spells
+//      `resolveAnswerThreadWithLog`'s body and notes on its OWN registry
+//      instance, so deleting `answerRouteOverrides.note(...)` from gateway.ts
+//      leaves all 64 green — see `tests/answer-route-side-effect.test.ts`, which
+//      drives the real gateway function against the real singleton.
+//   2. Individual clauses of the marker's predicate. Driving the REAL router is
+//      what makes the routed thread honest, but it also makes some combinations
+//      unreachable: with authority off (case 8) the router returns the explicit
+//      topic, and a dropped cross-chat anchor falls back to it too, so
+//      `threadId !== explicit` is never true on either arm. Dropping the
+//      `frameworkTopicAuthority` clause, or swapping the filtered anchors for
+//      the raw turns, therefore survives all 64 — both are pinned directly on
+//      the pure formatter in `gateway/reply-route-log.test.ts`.
+describe("the recorded override and the EXPLICIT_OVERRIDDEN marker cannot drift apart", () => {
+  const TARGET = "-100999";
+  const OTHER = "-100888";
+  const turn = (chatId: string, threadId: number | undefined) => ({
+    turnId: "t1",
+    sessionChatId: chatId,
+    sessionThreadId: threadId,
+  });
+
+  const cases: Array<{
+    name: string;
+    enabled: boolean;
+    explicitThreadId: number | undefined;
+    originTurn: ReturnType<typeof turn> | null;
+    liveTurn: ReturnType<typeof turn> | null;
+  }> = [
+    { name: "explicit 4, same-chat origin in 635 — the General→CRM correction",
+      enabled: true, explicitThreadId: 4, originTurn: turn(TARGET, 635), liveTurn: null },
+    { name: "explicit 4, same-chat LIVE turn in 635",
+      enabled: true, explicitThreadId: 4, originTurn: null, liveTurn: turn(TARGET, 635) },
+    { name: "explicit 4, origin agrees at 4 — no override",
+      enabled: true, explicitThreadId: 4, originTurn: turn(TARGET, 4), liveTurn: null },
+    { name: "explicit 4, CROSS-CHAT origin — anchor dropped (#4680)",
+      enabled: true, explicitThreadId: 4, originTurn: turn(OTHER, 635), liveTurn: null },
+    { name: "explicit 4, cross-chat origin AND cross-chat live",
+      enabled: true, explicitThreadId: 4, originTurn: turn(OTHER, 635), liveTurn: turn(OTHER, 900) },
+    { name: "explicit 4, cross-chat origin but same-chat live in 900",
+      enabled: true, explicitThreadId: 4, originTurn: turn(OTHER, 635), liveTurn: turn(TARGET, 900) },
+    { name: "no explicit topic at all",
+      enabled: true, explicitThreadId: undefined, originTurn: turn(TARGET, 635), liveTurn: null },
+    { name: "explicit 4, same-chat origin in 635, authority DISABLED",
+      enabled: false, explicitThreadId: 4, originTurn: turn(TARGET, 635), liveTurn: null },
+  ];
+
+  for (const c of cases) {
+    it(`agrees: ${c.name}`, () => {
+      // Mirrors gateway.ts `resolveAnswerThreadWithLog` exactly.
+      const originAnchor = isCrossChatAnchor(TARGET, c.originTurn?.sessionChatId)
+        ? null
+        : c.originTurn;
+      const liveAnchor = isCrossChatAnchor(TARGET, c.liveTurn?.sessionChatId) ? null : c.liveTurn;
+      const threadId = resolveAnswerThreadId({
+        explicitThreadId: c.explicitThreadId,
+        originResolved: c.originTurn != null,
+        originThreadId: c.originTurn?.sessionThreadId,
+        liveThreadId: c.liveTurn?.sessionThreadId,
+        liveTurnPresent: c.liveTurn != null,
+        lastEndedResolvedForChat: false,
+        lastEndedThreadIdForChat: undefined,
+        frameworkTopicAuthority: c.enabled,
+        targetChatId: TARGET,
+        originChatId: c.originTurn?.sessionChatId,
+        liveChatId: c.liveTurn?.sessionChatId,
+      });
+      const recorded = createAnswerRouteOverrides().note({
+        chatId: TARGET,
+        enabled: c.enabled,
+        explicitThreadId: c.explicitThreadId,
+        anchored: originAnchor != null || liveAnchor != null,
+        routedThreadId: threadId,
+        nowMs: 1_000,
+      });
+      const marked = formatReplyRouteLog({
+        surface: "reply",
+        chatId: TARGET,
+        threadId,
+        explicitThreadId: c.explicitThreadId,
+        originTurn: c.originTurn,
+        originVia: "echo",
+        liveTurn: c.liveTurn,
+        recovered: null,
+        frameworkTopicAuthority: c.enabled,
+        hasDifferentThreadedRecentTurn: () => false,
+      }).includes("EXPLICIT_OVERRIDDEN");
+      expect(recorded).toBe(marked);
+    });
+  }
+
+  // Not vacuous: at least one case must actually BE an override, or the whole
+  // matrix could agree on `false` forever.
+  it("the matrix contains a real override (guards against agreeing on false)", () => {
+    const overrides = createAnswerRouteOverrides();
+    const threadId = resolveAnswerThreadId({
+      explicitThreadId: 4,
+      originResolved: true,
+      originThreadId: 635,
+      liveThreadId: undefined,
+      liveTurnPresent: false,
+      lastEndedResolvedForChat: false,
+      lastEndedThreadIdForChat: undefined,
+      frameworkTopicAuthority: true,
+      targetChatId: TARGET,
+      originChatId: TARGET,
+      liveChatId: undefined,
+    });
+    expect(threadId).toBe(635);
+    expect(
+      overrides.note({ chatId: TARGET, enabled: true, explicitThreadId: 4, anchored: true,
+        routedThreadId: threadId, nowMs: 1_000 }),
+    ).toBe(true);
+  });
+});