skilldrop-cli 1.3.0 → 1.4.0

package/packs/product-manager/skills/lean-canvas/reference.md

@@ -1,102 +0,0 @@
-# lean-canvas reference
-
-Long-form material for the steps in `SKILL.md`. The canvas is Ash Maurya's adaptation of the
-Business Model Canvas (*Running Lean*); the interview rules follow Rob Fitzpatrick's *The Mom
-Test*.
-
-## The nine boxes, in the order to fill them
-
-| Box | What goes in | Common wrong entry |
-|---|---|---|
-| Problem | The top 1–3 problems, and how the early adopter copes today (existing alternatives) | A solution phrased as a problem: "no app for X" |
-| Customer segments | Who has the problem; the **early adopter** named separately, narrow enough to find by name | "Small businesses", "everyone who…" |
-| Unique value proposition | One sentence: why this, for the early adopter, instead of what they do today | A feature list |
-| Solution | The smallest thing that addresses each problem | A roadmap |
-| Channels | The paths to the early adopter, free and paid | Channels that reach the later segment |
-| Revenue streams | Price, who pays, how often | "Freemium" with no paid tier defined |
-| Cost structure | Cost to serve one customer, fixed costs, acquisition cost | Fixed costs only |
-| Key metrics | The 1–3 numbers that show the model works (activation, retention, paid conversion) | Downloads, page views |
-| Unfair advantage | What a funded competitor can't copy or buy within a year | A feature, "AI", "first mover", "passion" |
-
-**Internal products.** Revenue streams = the budget line or measured saving that keeps it
-funded. Customer = the team that has to change how it works; early adopter = the one team
-with the worst version of the problem and a lead who asked for help. Channel = how that team
-hears about and gets onto the tool (a mandate, a team lead, an existing workflow it plugs
-into). Unfair advantage can be real here: access to internal data or a mandate no vendor
-has. Still test whether the team will change its habits.
-
-## Grading evidence
-
-| Signal | Grade |
-|---|---|
-| Paid, pre-ordered, signed a letter of intent, or switched from a current tool | Behaviour — strongest |
-| Describes a recent, specific instance of the problem unprompted, and what it cost | Behaviour about the past — strong |
-| Built a workaround (spreadsheet, hired someone) | Behaviour — strong |
-| "I'd definitely use it", "great idea", survey interest | Opinion — weak, counts as assumption |
-| Industry statistic or report | Sizes the market; says nothing about this segment's willingness to pay |
-| Any of the above from a segment other than the early adopter | Counts as assumption for the early adopter |
-
-## Scoring risk
-
-| | Fatal (3) | Pivot (2) | Tune (1) |
-|---|---|---|---|
-| **High (3)** — no evidence, wrong segment, opinion only | 9 | 6 | 3 |
-| **Medium (2)** — right segment, few people or indirect | 6 | 4 | 2 |
-| **Low (1)** — observed behaviour, right segment | 3 | 2 | 1 |
-
-Ties: rank the assumption whose test is cheaper first; it clears the way for the rest.
-
-Why problem, customer and channel usually top the list: a wrong solution is fixed by
-rebuilding it, which a team can do in weeks. A wrong problem or an unreachable customer means
-the next build lands on nobody, and no amount of engineering moves it.
-
-## Test menu, cheapest first
-
-| Test | Proves wrong | Typical sample | Typical cost and time |
-|---|---|---|---|
-| Problem interview | The problem, the segment | 10–20 early adopters | $0–$200, 1–2 weeks |
-| Channel smoke test | The channel and its cost | $100–$500 of spend or one week of outreach on one channel | the spend, 1 week |
-| Landing page with a price | The UVP and the price | 100+ visitors from the stated channel | $100–$500, 1–2 weeks |
-| Concierge run (deliver it by hand) | The solution and retention | 3–10 customers | founder time, 2–4 weeks |
-| Pre-sale or letter of intent | Willingness to pay | 5–20 asks | $0, 2–4 weeks |
-| Wizard of Oz (looks automated, done by hand) | The solution at small volume | 10–30 uses | founder time, 2–4 weeks |
-
-A survey and "build an MVP and see" are not on the menu: the first measures opinion, the
-second costs months to learn what an interview learns in a week.
-
-## Setting the pass/fail line
-
-- **Write it before the test runs**, as a count: "fewer than 4 of 10". A line set after the
-  results arrive moves to fit them.
-- **Take it from the numbers when they exist.** Channel test fail line = the most a customer
-  can cost to acquire (lifetime margin ÷ 3 for a business that has to cover fixed costs;
-  lifetime margin at break-even). Landing-page fail line = the conversion that would
-  produce that cost per customer at the channel's cost per visitor.
-- **No numbers yet:** a problem interview passes when at least 4 in 10 describe a recent
-  instance unprompted; a pre-sale passes when at least 1 in 5 pays or signs.
-- **Say what failure changes:** which box is rewritten, and what the next test is.
-
-## Problem-interview rules
-
-1. Ask about the past, never the future. ✅ "When did that last happen? What did you do?"
-   ❌ "Would you use an app that…?"
-2. Don't pitch until the end, if at all. The moment the idea is described, people are polite.
-3. Ask what it cost them: time, money, a lost customer.
-4. Ask what they do about it today and what that costs. No workaround is a warning sign.
-5. Count who raised the problem **before** it was named, separately from who agreed once asked.
-
-Five-question script: "Walk me through your last [day/week/job]." / "What was the hardest
-part?" / "When did [problem area] last go wrong? What happened?" / "What did you do about
-it, and what did that cost?" / "What have you tried to fix it?"
-
-## What counts as an unfair advantage
-
-Counts: insider information, an existing audience or customer base, a network effect,
-a community, exclusive contracts or access, regulatory permission others lack, a team
-member whose name opens doors in this market, internal data or a mandate (internal products).
-
-Doesn't count: a feature, an algorithm, "AI", a patent pending on a feature, first-mover,
-better UX, lower price, hard work, passion. These go in Solution or UVP.
-
-"None yet" is the most common correct answer at this stage. Name a candidate the idea
-could grow into, if the input supports one.

package/packs/product-manager/skills/lean-canvas/scripts/unit_economics.py

@@ -1,211 +0,0 @@
-#!/usr/bin/env python3
-"""Unit-economics sanity check for a lean canvas.
-
-Stdlib only; runs on Python 3.9+. Computes, never estimates:
-
-  * contribution (gross margin) per customer per period, and as a % of price;
-  * customer lifetime in periods (given directly, or 1 / churn);
-  * lifetime gross margin (LTV) and LTV:CAC;
-  * CAC payback in periods, and whether it is longer than the lifetime;
-  * the most a customer can cost to acquire: at break-even (LTV) and at 3:1 (LTV / 3);
-  * break-even customers for the fixed costs, and the customers a stated
-    market can supply, when those are given.
-
-All money figures share one currency and one period (default "month"). Convert
-an annual price to monthly before passing it, or pass --period year with
-annual figures throughout.
-
-Usage:
-  python3 unit_economics.py --price 29 --variable-cost 6 --cac 400 \
-      --lifetime 9 --fixed 4300
-  python3 unit_economics.py --price 29 --variable-cost 6 --cac 400 --churn 0.11
-  python3 unit_economics.py --json inputs.json [-o out.md]
-  echo '{"price": 29, "variable_cost": 6, "cac": 400, "lifetime": 9}' | \
-      python3 unit_economics.py --json -
-
-JSON keys mirror the flags: price, variable_cost, cac, lifetime, churn,
-fixed, market_customers, period. Flags given on the command line override
-the JSON.
-
-Exit codes: 0 ok, 2 bad input.
-"""
-
-from __future__ import annotations
-
-import argparse
-import json
-import sys
-
-KEYS = ("price", "variable_cost", "cac", "lifetime", "churn", "fixed", "market_customers")
-
-
-def fail(msg: str) -> None:
-    print(f"error: {msg}", file=sys.stderr)
-    sys.exit(2)
-
-
-def load_json(path: str) -> dict:
-    try:
-        if path == "-":
-            data = json.load(sys.stdin)
-        else:
-            with open(path, encoding="utf-8") as fh:
-                data = json.load(fh)
-    except FileNotFoundError:
-        fail(f"no such file: {path}")
-    except json.JSONDecodeError as exc:
-        fail(f"not valid JSON ({exc})")
-    if not isinstance(data, dict):
-        fail("JSON input must be one object")
-    return data
-
-
-def number(name: str, value, minimum: float = 0.0, allow_equal: bool = True):
-    if value is None:
-        return None
-    try:
-        val = float(value)
-    except (TypeError, ValueError):
-        fail(f"{name} must be a number, got {value!r}")
-    if val < minimum or (not allow_equal and val == minimum):
-        op = ">=" if allow_equal else ">"
-        fail(f"{name} must be {op} {minimum:g}, got {val:g}")
-    return val
-
-
-def money(x: float) -> str:
-    return f"{x:,.2f}"
-
-
-def compute(inp: dict) -> tuple[list[str], list[str]]:
-    period = str(inp.get("period") or "month")
-    price = number("price", inp.get("price"), 0.0, allow_equal=False)
-    if price is None:
-        fail("price is required (per customer per period)")
-    vcost = number("variable_cost", inp.get("variable_cost")) or 0.0
-    cac = number("cac", inp.get("cac"))
-    lifetime = number("lifetime", inp.get("lifetime"), 0.0, allow_equal=False)
-    churn = inp.get("churn")
-    fixed = number("fixed", inp.get("fixed"))
-    market = number("market_customers", inp.get("market_customers"))
-
-    if churn is not None:
-        churn = number("churn", churn, 0.0, allow_equal=False)
-        if churn > 1:
-            if churn <= 100:
-                churn = churn / 100.0  # "11" meaning 11%
-            else:
-                fail("churn must be a fraction (0.11) or a percent (11)")
-        if lifetime is None:
-            lifetime = 1.0 / churn
-
-    lines: list[str] = []
-    flags: list[str] = []
-
-    margin = price - vcost
-    margin_pct = margin / price * 100
-    lines.append(f"Price per customer per {period}: {money(price)}")
-    if inp.get("variable_cost") is None:
-        lines.append(f"Variable cost per customer per {period}: not given, treated as 0")
-        flags.append("No cost to serve was given, so every margin figure here is an upper bound.")
-    else:
-        lines.append(f"Variable cost per customer per {period}: {money(vcost)}")
-    lines.append(f"Contribution per customer per {period}: {money(margin)} ({margin_pct:.1f}% gross margin)")
-    if margin <= 0:
-        flags.append(f"Each customer costs more to serve than they pay ({money(margin)} per {period}). No volume fixes this.")
-
-    ltv = None
-    if lifetime is not None:
-        src = f"1 / churn of {churn * 100:.1f}%" if churn is not None and inp.get("lifetime") is None else "as given"
-        lines.append(f"Customer lifetime: {lifetime:.1f} {period}s ({src})")
-        ltv = margin * lifetime
-        lines.append(f"Lifetime contribution (LTV): {money(ltv)}")
-
-    if cac is not None:
-        lines.append(f"Customer acquisition cost (CAC): {money(cac)}")
-        if margin > 0:
-            payback = cac / margin
-            lines.append(f"CAC payback: {payback:.1f} {period}s")
-            if lifetime is not None and payback > lifetime:
-                flags.append(
-                    f"CAC payback ({payback:.1f} {period}s) is longer than the customer lifetime "
-                    f"({lifetime:.1f} {period}s): every acquired customer loses {money(cac - ltv)}."
-                )
-        if ltv is not None:
-            ratio = ltv / cac if cac > 0 else float("inf")
-            lines.append(f"LTV:CAC: {ratio:.2f}" if cac > 0 else "LTV:CAC: no acquisition cost given as 0")
-            if cac > 0 and ratio < 1:
-                flags.append(f"LTV:CAC is {ratio:.2f}: acquisition destroys money before fixed costs.")
-            elif cac > 0 and ratio < 3:
-                flags.append(f"LTV:CAC is {ratio:.2f}, under the 3:1 most subscription businesses need to cover fixed costs.")
-
-    if ltv is not None and ltv > 0:
-        lines.append(f"Most a customer can cost to acquire: {money(ltv)} at break-even, {money(ltv / 3)} at 3:1")
-
-    if fixed is not None:
-        lines.append(f"Fixed costs per {period}: {money(fixed)}")
-        if margin > 0:
-            be = fixed / margin
-            be_whole = int(be) if be == int(be) else int(be) + 1
-            lines.append(f"Break-even customers (active at once): {be_whole:,}")
-            if market is not None:
-                lines.append(f"Customers the stated market holds: {int(market):,}")
-                if be_whole > market:
-                    flags.append(
-                        f"Break-even needs {be_whole:,} active customers but the stated market holds {int(market):,}."
-                    )
-                else:
-                    share = be_whole / market * 100 if market else 0.0  # 0 needed of a 0 market
-                    lines.append(f"Break-even share of the stated market: {share:.1f}%")
-                    if share >= 25:
-                        flags.append(
-                            f"Break-even needs {share:.0f}% of the stated market as paying customers at the same time."
-                        )
-            if cac is not None and ltv is not None and ltv <= cac:
-                flags.append("Break-even customers cannot be reached through paid acquisition at this CAC: each one adds a loss.")
-
-    missing = [k for k in ("variable_cost", "cac", "lifetime/churn", "fixed")
-               if (k == "lifetime/churn" and lifetime is None)
-               or (k != "lifetime/churn" and inp.get(k) is None)]
-    if missing:
-        lines.append("Not computed (input missing): " + ", ".join(missing))
-    return lines, flags
-
-
-def main() -> None:
-    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Unit-economics sanity check for a lean canvas.")
-    ap.add_argument("--json", metavar="PATH", help="JSON object of inputs, or - for stdin")
-    ap.add_argument("--price", help="price per customer per period")
-    ap.add_argument("--variable-cost", dest="variable_cost", help="cost to serve one customer per period")
-    ap.add_argument("--cac", help="cost to acquire one paying customer")
-    ap.add_argument("--lifetime", help="average customer lifetime in periods")
-    ap.add_argument("--churn", help="churn per period, as 0.11 or 11")
-    ap.add_argument("--fixed", help="fixed costs per period")
-    ap.add_argument("--market-customers", dest="market_customers", help="customers the stated market holds")
-    ap.add_argument("--period", help='period label, default "month"')
-    ap.add_argument("-o", "--output", help="write the report to this path instead of stdout")
-    args = ap.parse_args()
-
-    inp: dict = load_json(args.json) if args.json else {}
-    unknown = set(inp) - set(KEYS) - {"period"}
-    if unknown:
-        fail("unknown JSON keys: " + ", ".join(sorted(unknown)))
-    for key in KEYS + ("period",):
-        val = getattr(args, key)
-        if val is not None:
-            inp[key] = val
-
-    lines, flags = compute(inp)
-    out = ["Unit economics", ""] + [f"- {ln}" for ln in lines]
-    out += ["", "Where the numbers don't close:" if flags else "Where the numbers don't close: none found."]
-    out += [f"- {f}" for f in flags]
-    text = "\n".join(out) + "\n"
-    if args.output:
-        with open(args.output, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
-            fh.write(text)
-    else:
-        sys.stdout.write(text)
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    main()