simmer-automaton 0.4.0 → 0.5.1

package/dist/api.d.ts

@@ -90,4 +90,24 @@ export declare class SimmerApi {
         outcomes: SkillOutcome[];
         since: string;
     }>;
+    postCycle(data: {
+        active_skills: string[];
+        cycle_number: number;
+        selection_meta: Array<{
+            slug: string;
+            reason: string;
+            score: number | null;
+        }>;
+        config_changes: Array<{
+            slug: string;
+            env: string;
+            old: any;
+            new: any;
+            reason: string;
+        }>;
+    }): Promise<{
+        ok: boolean;
+        active_skills: string[];
+        cycle_number: number;
+    }>;
 }

package/dist/api.js

@@ -70,4 +70,10 @@ export class SimmerApi {
         const params = new URLSearchParams({ since });
         return this.request(`/api/sdk/automaton/outcomes?${params}`);
     }
+    async postCycle(data) {
+        return this.request("/api/sdk/automaton/cycle", {
+            method: "POST",
+            body: JSON.stringify(data),
+        });
+    }
 }

package/dist/bandit.js

@@ -5,7 +5,12 @@
 function avgReward(skill) {
     if (skill.timesSelected === 0)
         return Infinity;
-    return skill.totalPnl / skill.timesSelected;
+    // Use P&L as primary signal. When P&L is unavailable (0), fall back to
+    // trade execution rate as bootstrap — a skill that finds and executes trades
+    // is better than one that finds nothing.
+    if (skill.totalPnl !== 0)
+        return skill.totalPnl / skill.timesSelected;
+    return skill.tradesExecutedTotal / skill.timesSelected;
 }
 export function tierMaxSkills(tier, maxConcurrent) {
     if (tier === "thriving" || tier === "normal")
@@ -49,6 +54,8 @@ export function selectSkills(skills, n, tier, epsilon) {
                 score: Math.round(avgReward(s) * 10000) / 10000,
             })));
         }
+        for (const p of picks)
+            p.timesSelected++;
         return {
             selected: picks.map((s) => s.slug),
             meta,
@@ -58,6 +65,8 @@ export function selectSkills(skills, n, tier, epsilon) {
     if (tier === "critical") {
         const ranked = [...enabled].sort((a, b) => avgReward(b) - avgReward(a));
         const picks = ranked.slice(0, count);
+        for (const p of picks)
+            p.timesSelected++;
         return {
             selected: picks.map((s) => s.slug),
             meta: picks.map((s) => ({
@@ -85,6 +94,7 @@ export function selectSkills(skills, n, tier, epsilon) {
             pick = available.reduce((best, s) => avgReward(s) > avgReward(best) ? s : best);
             reason = "exploit";
         }
+        pick.timesSelected++;
         selected.push(pick);
         meta.push({
             slug: pick.slug,

package/dist/index.js

@@ -17,11 +17,11 @@ let cachedSkills = [];
 let banditState = [];
 let currentTier = "normal";
 let cycleCount = 0;
-let lastPromptCycle = -1; // Track which cycle was last issued to prevent re-running
 let currentSelectedMeta = [];
 let serviceRunning = false;
 let cycleTimer = null;
 let lastCycleTimestamp = new Date().toISOString();
+let lastKnownStartedAt = null;
 // Config defaults
 let config = {
     apiKey: "",
@@ -67,6 +67,17 @@ async function refreshState(logger) {
             cachedSkills = res.skills;
         }
         if (cachedState.initialized) {
+            // Detect re-init (started_at changed) — reset in-memory state
+            if (cachedState.started_at && cachedState.started_at !== lastKnownStartedAt) {
+                if (lastKnownStartedAt !== null) {
+                    logger.info(`[simmer] Detected re-init (started_at changed) — resetting cycle counter and bandit state`);
+                    cycleCount = 0;
+                    banditState = [];
+                    currentSelectedMeta = [];
+                    lastCycleTimestamp = new Date().toISOString();
+                }
+                lastKnownStartedAt = cachedState.started_at;
+            }
             // Sync venue from server state (source of truth — server enforces it)
             if (cachedState.venue) {
                 config.venue = cachedState.venue;
@@ -128,40 +139,17 @@ function buildPromptContext() {
             "Re-initialize with a new budget to restart.",
         ].join("\n");
     }
-    const isNewCycle = cycleCount !== lastPromptCycle;
     const lines = [];
-    // --- ACTION block: only on new cycles ---
-    if (isNewCycle && currentSelectedMeta.length > 0) {
-        lastPromptCycle = cycleCount;
-        lines.push(`## Simmer Automaton — Cycle ${cycleCount}`);
-        lines.push("");
-        lines.push("**ACTION: Run these skills now** (copy-paste each command):");
-        lines.push("");
-        // Build slug → entrypoint map from cachedSkills
-        const entrypointMap = new Map(cachedSkills.map((s) => [s.id, s.entrypoint]));
-        for (const m of currentSelectedMeta) {
-            const entrypoint = entrypointMap.get(m.slug);
-            if (entrypoint) {
-                const skillConfig = cachedSkills.find((s) => s.id === m.slug)?.config || {};
-                const envVars = Object.entries(skillConfig).map(([k, v]) => `${k}=${v}`).join(" ");
-                const envPrefix = envVars ? `${envVars} ` : "";
-                lines.push(`- \`TRADING_VENUE=${config.venue} ${envPrefix}python ${entrypoint} --live --quiet\``);
-            }
-            else {
-                // No entrypoint in registry — bot should find the script from SKILL.md
-                lines.push(`- ${m.slug} (check SKILL.md for entrypoint)`);
-            }
-        }
-        lines.push("");
-        lines.push("After running each skill, briefly note: trades executed, signals found, or why it was skipped.");
+    lines.push(`## Simmer Automaton — Cycle ${cycleCount}`);
+    lines.push("");
+    if (currentSelectedMeta.length > 0) {
+        lines.push(`**Active skills:** ${currentSelectedMeta.map((m) => m.slug).join(", ")}`);
     }
     else {
-        lines.push("## Simmer Automaton — Status");
-        if (currentSelectedMeta.length > 0) {
-            lines.push("");
-            lines.push(`Skills already issued this cycle (${cycleCount}): ${currentSelectedMeta.map((m) => m.slug).join(", ")}`);
-        }
+        lines.push("**Active skills:** none selected yet");
     }
+    lines.push("**Status:** Skills run independently. The automaton selects which ones can trade.");
+    lines.push(`**IMPORTANT:** All skill cron jobs MUST include \`TRADING_VENUE=${config.venue}\` in their environment. Skills default to polymarket otherwise.`);
     // --- Status ---
     lines.push("");
     lines.push(`**Tier:** ${currentTier} | **Venue:** ${config.venue}`);
@@ -255,6 +243,17 @@ export default function register(pluginApi) {
                             skill.consecutiveZeroSignals = o.trades > 0 ? 0 : skill.consecutiveZeroSignals + 1;
                         }
                     }
+                    // Skills that were selected last cycle but had zero trades won't appear in outcomes
+                    // (GROUP BY only returns rows with trades). Increment consecutiveZeroSignals for them.
+                    const outcomeSkillSlugs = new Set(outcomeRes.outcomes.map((o) => o.skill_slug));
+                    for (const m of currentSelectedMeta) {
+                        if (!outcomeSkillSlugs.has(m.slug)) {
+                            const skill = banditState.find((s) => s.slug === m.slug);
+                            if (skill) {
+                                skill.consecutiveZeroSignals++;
+                            }
+                        }
+                    }
                     if (outcomeRes.outcomes.length > 0) {
                         ctx.logger.info(`[simmer] Outcomes: ${outcomeRes.outcomes.map((o) => `${o.skill_slug}:${o.trades}t`).join(", ")}`);
                     }
@@ -274,14 +273,6 @@ export default function register(pluginApi) {
                         pinned: s.pinned || [],
                     }));
                     tuningChanges = computeTuningChanges(banditState, tunableSkills, cycleCount, cachedState?.budget_usd ?? 0);
-                    for (const change of tuningChanges) {
-                        const skill = tunableSkills.find((s) => s.slug === change.slug);
-                        if (skill) {
-                            const newConfig = { ...skill.config, [change.env]: change.newValue };
-                            api.setSkillConfig(change.slug, newConfig)
-                                .catch((e) => ctx.logger.error(`[simmer] Failed to apply config: ${e}`));
-                        }
-                    }
                     if (tuningChanges.length > 0) {
                         ctx.logger.info(`[simmer] Tuning: ${tuningChanges.map((c) => `${c.slug}.${c.env}: ${c.oldValue} → ${c.newValue}`).join(", ")}`);
                     }
@@ -293,7 +284,27 @@ export default function register(pluginApi) {
                 const { selected, meta } = selectSkills(banditState, n, currentTier, config.epsilon);
                 currentSelectedMeta = meta;
                 const hints = generateTuningHints(banditState, cachedState?.budget_usd ?? 0);
-                // Record cycle to API (fire-and-forget — don't block the loop)
+                // POST cycle to API — writes active_skills + config_changes atomically
+                // This replaces both individual setSkillConfig calls and the old recordCycle
+                const configChangesPayload = tuningChanges.map((c) => ({
+                    slug: c.slug,
+                    env: c.env,
+                    old: c.oldValue,
+                    new: c.newValue,
+                    reason: c.reason,
+                }));
+                try {
+                    await api.postCycle({
+                        active_skills: selected,
+                        cycle_number: cycleCount,
+                        selection_meta: meta.map((m) => ({ slug: m.slug, reason: m.reason, score: m.score })),
+                        config_changes: configChangesPayload,
+                    });
+                }
+                catch (e) {
+                    ctx.logger.warn(`[simmer] Failed to post cycle (active_skills may be stale): ${e}`);
+                }
+                // Also record cycle history (fire-and-forget)
                 const cycleData = {
                     cycle_num: cycleCount,
                     tier: currentTier,
@@ -304,7 +315,7 @@ export default function register(pluginApi) {
                     spent_usd: cachedState?.spent_usd,
                 };
                 if (tuningChanges.length > 0) {
-                    cycleData.config_changes = tuningChanges.map((c) => ({ slug: c.slug, env: c.env, old: c.oldValue, new: c.newValue, reason: c.reason }));
+                    cycleData.config_changes = configChangesPayload;
                 }
                 api.recordCycle(cycleData).catch((e) => ctx.logger.error(`[simmer] Failed to record cycle: ${e}`));
                 ctx.logger.info(`[simmer] Cycle ${cycleCount} | tier=${currentTier} | ε=${config.epsilon.toFixed(3)} | selected=${selected.length} skills`);

package/dist/tuning.js

@@ -6,9 +6,11 @@
  */
 // Track last tuned cycle per skill to enforce cooldowns
 const lastTunedCycle = new Map();
-function isThresholdTunable(t) {
+function isEntryThresholdTunable(t) {
     const l = t.label.toLowerCase();
-    return l.includes("threshold") || l.includes("edge") || l.includes("confidence") || l.includes("min edge") || l.includes("min split");
+    // Only widen entry-side thresholds (lower = accept more signals).
+    // Exit/confidence thresholds should NOT be lowered — that degrades trade quality.
+    return l.includes("entry") || l.includes("edge") || l.includes("min split") || l.includes("momentum");
 }
 function isMaxBetTunable(t) {
     const l = t.label.toLowerCase();
@@ -103,7 +105,7 @@ export function computeTuningChanges(skills, tunableSkills, cycleCount, budgetUs
         // Rule 1: consecutiveZeroSignals >= 5 → widen thresholds by 20% (cooldown 10)
         if (sk.consecutiveZeroSignals >= 5 && cycleCount - lastTuned >= 10) {
             for (const t of ts.tunables) {
-                if (t.type !== "number" || pinnedSet.has(t.env) || !isThresholdTunable(t))
+                if (t.type !== "number" || pinnedSet.has(t.env) || !isEntryThresholdTunable(t))
                     continue;
                 const cur = currentValue(t, ts.config);
                 if (typeof cur !== "number")

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "simmer-automaton",
-  "version": "0.4.0",
+  "version": "0.5.1",
   "description": "Simmer Automaton plugin for OpenClaw — autonomous trading skill orchestration",
   "main": "dist/index.js",
   "types": "dist/index.d.ts",

package/src/api.ts

@@ -138,4 +138,16 @@ export class SimmerApi {
     const params = new URLSearchParams({ since });
     return this.request(`/api/sdk/automaton/outcomes?${params}`);
   }
+
+  async postCycle(data: {
+    active_skills: string[];
+    cycle_number: number;
+    selection_meta: Array<{ slug: string; reason: string; score: number | null }>;
+    config_changes: Array<{ slug: string; env: string; old: any; new: any; reason: string }>;
+  }): Promise<{ ok: boolean; active_skills: string[]; cycle_number: number }> {
+    return this.request("/api/sdk/automaton/cycle", {
+      method: "POST",
+      body: JSON.stringify(data),
+    });
+  }
 }

package/src/bandit.ts

@@ -25,7 +25,11 @@ export interface SelectionMeta {
 
 function avgReward(skill: SkillState): number {
   if (skill.timesSelected === 0) return Infinity;
-  return skill.totalPnl / skill.timesSelected;
+  // Use P&L as primary signal. When P&L is unavailable (0), fall back to
+  // trade execution rate as bootstrap — a skill that finds and executes trades
+  // is better than one that finds nothing.
+  if (skill.totalPnl !== 0) return skill.totalPnl / skill.timesSelected;
+  return skill.tradesExecutedTotal / skill.timesSelected;
 }
 
 export function tierMaxSkills(tier: string, maxConcurrent: number): number {
@@ -78,6 +82,7 @@ export function selectSkills(
       );
     }
 
+    for (const p of picks) p.timesSelected++;
     return {
       selected: picks.map((s) => s.slug),
       meta,
@@ -90,6 +95,7 @@ export function selectSkills(
       (a, b) => avgReward(b) - avgReward(a),
     );
     const picks = ranked.slice(0, count);
+    for (const p of picks) p.timesSelected++;
     return {
       selected: picks.map((s) => s.slug),
       meta: picks.map((s) => ({
@@ -122,6 +128,7 @@ export function selectSkills(
       reason = "exploit";
     }
 
+    pick.timesSelected++;
     selected.push(pick);
     meta.push({
       slug: pick.slug,

package/src/index.ts

@@ -38,11 +38,11 @@ let cachedSkills: Skill[] = [];
 let banditState: SkillState[] = [];
 let currentTier: Tier = "normal";
 let cycleCount = 0;
-let lastPromptCycle = -1; // Track which cycle was last issued to prevent re-running
 let currentSelectedMeta: Array<{ slug: string; reason: string; score: number | null }> = [];
 let serviceRunning = false;
 let cycleTimer: ReturnType<typeof setInterval> | null = null;
 let lastCycleTimestamp: string = new Date().toISOString();
+let lastKnownStartedAt: string | null = null;
 
 // Config defaults
 let config = {
@@ -82,6 +82,17 @@ async function refreshState(logger: { info: (m: string) => void; error: (m: stri
     }
 
     if (cachedState.initialized) {
+      // Detect re-init (started_at changed) — reset in-memory state
+      if (cachedState.started_at && cachedState.started_at !== lastKnownStartedAt) {
+        if (lastKnownStartedAt !== null) {
+          logger.info(`[simmer] Detected re-init (started_at changed) — resetting cycle counter and bandit state`);
+          cycleCount = 0;
+          banditState = [];
+          currentSelectedMeta = [];
+          lastCycleTimestamp = new Date().toISOString();
+        }
+        lastKnownStartedAt = cachedState.started_at;
+      }
       // Sync venue from server state (source of truth — server enforces it)
       if (cachedState.venue) {
         config.venue = cachedState.venue;
@@ -148,39 +159,17 @@ function buildPromptContext(): string {
     ].join("\n");
   }
 
-  const isNewCycle = cycleCount !== lastPromptCycle;
   const lines: string[] = [];
 
-  // --- ACTION block: only on new cycles ---
-  if (isNewCycle && currentSelectedMeta.length > 0) {
-    lastPromptCycle = cycleCount;
-    lines.push(`## Simmer Automaton — Cycle ${cycleCount}`);
-    lines.push("");
-    lines.push("**ACTION: Run these skills now** (copy-paste each command):");
-    lines.push("");
-    // Build slug → entrypoint map from cachedSkills
-    const entrypointMap = new Map(cachedSkills.map((s) => [s.id, s.entrypoint]));
-    for (const m of currentSelectedMeta) {
-      const entrypoint = entrypointMap.get(m.slug);
-      if (entrypoint) {
-        const skillConfig = cachedSkills.find((s) => s.id === m.slug)?.config || {};
-        const envVars = Object.entries(skillConfig).map(([k, v]) => `${k}=${v}`).join(" ");
-        const envPrefix = envVars ? `${envVars} ` : "";
-        lines.push(`- \`TRADING_VENUE=${config.venue} ${envPrefix}python ${entrypoint} --live --quiet\``);
-      } else {
-        // No entrypoint in registry — bot should find the script from SKILL.md
-        lines.push(`- ${m.slug} (check SKILL.md for entrypoint)`);
-      }
-    }
-    lines.push("");
-    lines.push("After running each skill, briefly note: trades executed, signals found, or why it was skipped.");
+  lines.push(`## Simmer Automaton — Cycle ${cycleCount}`);
+  lines.push("");
+  if (currentSelectedMeta.length > 0) {
+    lines.push(`**Active skills:** ${currentSelectedMeta.map((m) => m.slug).join(", ")}`);
   } else {
-    lines.push("## Simmer Automaton — Status");
-    if (currentSelectedMeta.length > 0) {
-      lines.push("");
-      lines.push(`Skills already issued this cycle (${cycleCount}): ${currentSelectedMeta.map((m) => m.slug).join(", ")}`);
-    }
+    lines.push("**Active skills:** none selected yet");
   }
+  lines.push("**Status:** Skills run independently. The automaton selects which ones can trade.");
+  lines.push(`**IMPORTANT:** All skill cron jobs MUST include \`TRADING_VENUE=${config.venue}\` in their environment. Skills default to polymarket otherwise.`);
 
   // --- Status ---
   lines.push("");
@@ -291,6 +280,17 @@ export default function register(pluginApi: PluginApi) {
               skill.consecutiveZeroSignals = o.trades > 0 ? 0 : skill.consecutiveZeroSignals + 1;
             }
           }
+          // Skills that were selected last cycle but had zero trades won't appear in outcomes
+          // (GROUP BY only returns rows with trades). Increment consecutiveZeroSignals for them.
+          const outcomeSkillSlugs = new Set(outcomeRes.outcomes.map((o: SkillOutcome) => o.skill_slug));
+          for (const m of currentSelectedMeta) {
+            if (!outcomeSkillSlugs.has(m.slug)) {
+              const skill = banditState.find((s) => s.slug === m.slug);
+              if (skill) {
+                skill.consecutiveZeroSignals++;
+              }
+            }
+          }
           if (outcomeRes.outcomes.length > 0) {
             ctx.logger.info(`[simmer] Outcomes: ${outcomeRes.outcomes.map((o: SkillOutcome) => `${o.skill_slug}:${o.trades}t`).join(", ")}`);
           }
@@ -310,14 +310,6 @@ export default function register(pluginApi: PluginApi) {
               pinned: s.pinned || [],
             }));
           tuningChanges = computeTuningChanges(banditState, tunableSkills, cycleCount, cachedState?.budget_usd ?? 0);
-          for (const change of tuningChanges) {
-            const skill = tunableSkills.find((s) => s.slug === change.slug);
-            if (skill) {
-              const newConfig = { ...skill.config, [change.env]: change.newValue };
-              api.setSkillConfig(change.slug, newConfig)
-                .catch((e) => ctx.logger.error(`[simmer] Failed to apply config: ${e}`));
-            }
-          }
           if (tuningChanges.length > 0) {
             ctx.logger.info(`[simmer] Tuning: ${tuningChanges.map((c) => `${c.slug}.${c.env}: ${c.oldValue} → ${c.newValue}`).join(", ")}`);
           }
@@ -335,7 +327,27 @@ export default function register(pluginApi: PluginApi) {
         currentSelectedMeta = meta;
         const hints = generateTuningHints(banditState, cachedState?.budget_usd ?? 0);
 
-        // Record cycle to API (fire-and-forget — don't block the loop)
+        // POST cycle to API — writes active_skills + config_changes atomically
+        // This replaces both individual setSkillConfig calls and the old recordCycle
+        const configChangesPayload = tuningChanges.map((c) => ({
+          slug: c.slug,
+          env: c.env,
+          old: c.oldValue,
+          new: c.newValue,
+          reason: c.reason,
+        }));
+        try {
+          await api.postCycle({
+            active_skills: selected,
+            cycle_number: cycleCount,
+            selection_meta: meta.map((m) => ({ slug: m.slug, reason: m.reason, score: m.score })),
+            config_changes: configChangesPayload,
+          });
+        } catch (e) {
+          ctx.logger.warn(`[simmer] Failed to post cycle (active_skills may be stale): ${e}`);
+        }
+
+        // Also record cycle history (fire-and-forget)
         const cycleData: Record<string, unknown> = {
           cycle_num: cycleCount,
           tier: currentTier,
@@ -346,7 +358,7 @@ export default function register(pluginApi: PluginApi) {
           spent_usd: cachedState?.spent_usd,
         };
         if (tuningChanges.length > 0) {
-          cycleData.config_changes = tuningChanges.map((c) => ({ slug: c.slug, env: c.env, old: c.oldValue, new: c.newValue, reason: c.reason }));
+          cycleData.config_changes = configChangesPayload;
         }
         api.recordCycle(cycleData as any).catch((e) => ctx.logger.error(`[simmer] Failed to record cycle: ${e}`));
 

package/src/tuning.ts

@@ -33,9 +33,11 @@ export interface TunableSkill {
 // Track last tuned cycle per skill to enforce cooldowns
 const lastTunedCycle = new Map<string, number>();
 
-function isThresholdTunable(t: Tunable): boolean {
+function isEntryThresholdTunable(t: Tunable): boolean {
   const l = t.label.toLowerCase();
-  return l.includes("threshold") || l.includes("edge") || l.includes("confidence") || l.includes("min edge") || l.includes("min split");
+  // Only widen entry-side thresholds (lower = accept more signals).
+  // Exit/confidence thresholds should NOT be lowered — that degrades trade quality.
+  return l.includes("entry") || l.includes("edge") || l.includes("min split") || l.includes("momentum");
 }
 
 function isMaxBetTunable(t: Tunable): boolean {
@@ -151,7 +153,7 @@ export function computeTuningChanges(
     // Rule 1: consecutiveZeroSignals >= 5 → widen thresholds by 20% (cooldown 10)
     if (sk.consecutiveZeroSignals >= 5 && cycleCount - lastTuned >= 10) {
       for (const t of ts.tunables) {
-        if (t.type !== "number" || pinnedSet.has(t.env) || !isThresholdTunable(t)) continue;
+        if (t.type !== "number" || pinnedSet.has(t.env) || !isEntryThresholdTunable(t)) continue;
         const cur = currentValue(t, ts.config);
         if (typeof cur !== "number") continue;
         let newVal = cur * 0.8;