segreant 0.1.0 → 0.2.0

package/dist/dashboard/web/app/views/value.js

@@ -22,30 +22,35 @@
 import { h } from '../core/dom.js';
 import { signal, scopedEffect } from '../core/signal.js';
 import { api } from '../core/api.js';
-import { usd, count, pct, isPrecise } from '../core/fmt.js';
+import { usd, count, pct, share, isPrecise } from '../core/fmt.js';
 import { actionCard } from './spend.js';
-/** What each gate means, for the funnel counts. */
+/** Each gate as a step name, for the passed / failed / not checked table. */
 const GATE_WORDS = {
-    proposed: 'was suggested',
-    accepted: 'was accepted',
-    committed: 'was committed',
-    tested: 'was tested',
-    merged: 'was merged',
-    shipped: 'shipped',
-    survived: 'survived in production',
-    clean: 'survived without rework',
+    proposed: 'Suggested by the AI',
+    accepted: 'Accepted',
+    committed: 'Committed',
+    tested: 'Tests passed',
+    merged: 'Merged',
+    shipped: 'Shipped',
+    survived: 'Still in the code after 14 days',
+    clean: 'Kept without rework',
 };
-/** The same gates named as a stage a unit STOPPED at, for the waste breakdown. */
-const STOPPED_AFTER = {
-    proposed: 'being suggested',
-    accepted: 'being accepted',
-    committed: 'being committed',
-    tested: 'being tested',
-    merged: 'being merged',
-    shipped: 'shipping',
-    survived: 'surviving in production',
-    clean: 'surviving without rework',
-    unverified: 'never being verified',
+/**
+ * The waste breakdown is keyed by `diedAt`, the FIRST FAILED gate, so each
+ * label says what went wrong. It used to read "stopped after surviving in
+ * production" for work that failed the survival check.
+ */
+const FAILED_AT = {
+    proposed: 'Suggestion not used',
+    accepted: 'Not accepted',
+    committed: 'Never committed',
+    tested: 'Tests failed',
+    merged: 'Not merged',
+    shipped: 'Not shipped',
+    survived: 'Gone from the code within 14 days',
+    clean: 'Needed rework',
+    unverified: 'No signal to judge it by',
+    conflicted: 'Results disagree',
 };
 const plural = (n, one, many) => (n === 1 ? one : many);
 /** Operator reports have their own basis and never feed the git realization card. */
@@ -111,13 +116,25 @@ function selfReportedCard(report, refresh) {
     if (report.status === 'disabled') {
         return h('section', { class: 'section' }, h('h2', { class: 'section-title', text: 'Chat, image and other work' }), h('p', { class: 'basis', text: 'Self-reported value is disabled; nothing was computed.' }));
     }
-    return h('section', { class: 'section' }, h('h2', { class: 'section-title', text: 'Chat, image and other work' }), h('p', { class: 'basis', text: report.basis }), h('p', { class: 'basis', text: `${report.units.length} reported results · ${report.unlinkedOutcomes} without matched spend · ${report.inferredLinks} inferred links. Coding git outcomes have a separate basis.` }), ...rows.map((row) => h('p', { class: 'basis', text: `${row.key}: ${row.accepted}/${row.outcomes} accepted, ${row.used} used; cost/accepted ${row.costPerAcceptedUsd === null ? 'unknown' : usd(row.costPerAcceptedUsd)}; cost/used ${row.costPerUsedUsd === null ? 'unknown' : usd(row.costPerUsedUsd)} (self-reported, ${row.linked}/${row.outcomes} linked)` })), h('details', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s4)' }, h('summary', { text: 'Record a result' }), h('p', { class: 'basis', text: 'Preview first. The result and your verdict stay on this machine.' }), field('Result ID', outcomeId, 'my-result-1'), choice('Kind', kind, [['chat', 'Chat'], ['image', 'Image'], ['other', 'Other']]), choice('Spend link', linkType, [['session', 'Session ID'], ['request', 'Request ID'], ['window', 'Time window + tool (inferred)']]), () => linkType() === 'window'
+    return h('section', { class: 'section' }, h('h2', { class: 'section-title', text: 'Chat, image and other work' }), h('p', { class: 'basis', text: report.basis }), h('p', { class: 'basis', text: `${report.units.length} reported results · ${report.unlinkedOutcomes} without matched spend · ${report.inferredLinks} inferred links. Coding git outcomes have a separate basis.` }), ...rows.map((row) => h('p', { class: 'basis', text: `${row.key}: ${row.accepted}/${row.outcomes} accepted, ${row.used} used; cost/accepted ${row.costPerAcceptedUsd === null ? 'unknown' : usd(row.costPerAcceptedUsd)}; cost/used ${row.costPerUsedUsd === null ? 'unknown' : usd(row.costPerUsedUsd)} (self-reported, ${row.linked}/${row.outcomes} linked)` })), h('details', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s4)' }, h('summary', { text: 'Record a result' }), h('p', { class: 'basis', text: 'Preview first. The result and your answer stay on this machine.' }), field('Result ID', outcomeId, 'my-result-1'), choice('Kind', kind, [['chat', 'Chat'], ['image', 'Image'], ['other', 'Other']]), choice('Spend link', linkType, [['session', 'Session ID'], ['request', 'Request ID'], ['window', 'Time window + tool (inferred)']]), () => linkType() === 'window'
         ? h('div', null, field('From (ISO time)', from), field('To (ISO time)', to), field('Tool/source', tool))
         : field(linkType() === 'request' ? 'Request ID' : 'Session ID', linkId), field('Rating 1–5 (optional)', rating), field('Short note (optional)', note), choice('Decision', decision, [['', 'Unknown'], ['accepted_as_is', 'Accepted as-is'], ['edited_before_use', 'Edited before use'], ['rejected', 'Rejected']]), choice('Used afterward', use, [['', 'Unknown'], ['exported', 'Exported'], ['copied', 'Copied'], ['shipped', 'Shipped'], ['published', 'Published'], ['not_used', 'Not used']]), field('Attempts until accepted (optional)', attempts), choice('Regenerated', regenerated, [['', 'Unknown'], ['true', 'Yes'], ['false', 'No']]), choice('Still in use', stillInUse, [['', 'Unknown'], ['true', 'Yes'], ['false', 'No']]), h('div', { class: 'actions' }, h('button', { class: 'btn-ghost', type: 'button', disabled: () => busy(), onclick: () => { void submit(false); }, text: 'Preview' }), () => preview() && !preview().apply
         ? h('button', { class: 'btn-primary', type: 'button', disabled: () => busy(), onclick: () => { void submit(true); }, text: 'Apply record' })
         : null), () => error() ? h('p', { class: 'drawer-error', role: 'alert', text: error() }) : null, () => preview() ? h('p', { class: 'basis', role: 'status', text: `${preview().apply ? 'Recorded' : 'Preview'}: ${preview().matchedRequests} request(s) matched; ${preview().linkStatus}; ${preview().event.link.basis} link; ${preview().basis}` }) : null));
 }
 const MARKET_ROWS = 8;
+function publicPrice(price) {
+    if (price === null)
+        return 'no public price';
+    const amount = typeof price.blendedUsdPerMillion === 'number'
+        ? `${usd(price.blendedUsdPerMillion)}/M tokens`
+        : typeof price.usdPerImage === 'number'
+            ? `${usd(price.usdPerImage)}/image`
+            : null;
+    if (amount === null)
+        return 'no public price';
+    return amount + (price.match === 'normalized' ? ` (as ${price.pricedAs})` : '');
+}
 function marketBoard(b) {
     const head = h('div', { class: 'card-head' }, h('span', { class: 'card-title', text: b.label }), h('span', { class: 'basis', text: `${b.licence}` }));
     if (b.status !== 'available') {
@@ -137,9 +154,7 @@ function marketBoard(b) {
             return h('tr', null, h('td', { text: x.model }), h('td', { text: `${x.passRatePercent.toFixed(1)}%` }), h('td', { text: x.runCostUsd === null ? 'not published' : usd(x.runCostUsd) }), h('td', { text: x.costPerSolvedTaskUsd === null ? '—' : usd(x.costPerSolvedTaskUsd) }), h('td', { text: x.frontier === null ? '—' : x.frontier ? 'yes' : '' }));
         }
         const x = r;
-        const price = x.price === null ? 'no public price'
-            : (x.price.blendedUsdPerMillion !== undefined ? `${usd(x.price.blendedUsdPerMillion)}/M tokens` : `${usd(x.price.usdPerImage ?? 0)}/image`)
-                + (x.price.match === 'normalized' ? ` (as ${x.price.pricedAs})` : '');
+        const price = publicPrice(x.price);
         return h('tr', null, h('td', { text: x.model }), h('td', { text: `${x.rating.toFixed(0)} (${x.ratingLower.toFixed(0)}–${x.ratingUpper.toFixed(0)})` }), h('td', { text: count(x.votes) }), h('td', { text: price }), h('td', { text: x.frontier === null ? '—' : x.frontier ? 'yes' : '' }));
     }))));
     return h('div', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s3)' }, head, h('p', { class: 'basis', text: when }), table, b.rows.length > rows.length ? h('p', { class: 'basis', text: `${b.rows.length - rows.length} more on the command line: segreant market --all` }) : null, b.frontier.length ? h('p', { class: 'basis', text: `Frontier: ${b.frontier.slice(0, 10).join(', ')}${b.frontier.length > 10 ? ` and ${b.frontier.length - 10} more` : ''}` }) : null, ...b.notes.map((n) => h('p', { class: 'basis', text: n })));
@@ -149,11 +164,11 @@ function consensusTable(c) {
     if (c.status !== 'available')
         return h('div', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s3)' }, title, ...c.notes.map((n) => h('p', { class: 'basis', text: n })));
     const rows = c.rows.slice(0, 10);
-    return h('div', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s3)' }, title, h('p', { class: 'basis', text: 'Expected score on a typical benchmark of this kind, 0–100. The range is how far it moves if any one benchmark is dropped.' }), h('div', { class: 'table-wrap' }, h('table', { 'aria-label': 'Consensus quality score, top models' }, h('thead', null, h('tr', null, ...['Model', 'Score', 'Range', 'Benchmarks', 'List price', 'Frontier'].map((t) => h('th', { scope: 'col', text: t })))), h('tbody', null, ...rows.map((r) => h('tr', null, h('td', { text: r.label }), h('td', { text: r.score.toFixed(0) }), h('td', { text: `${r.low.toFixed(0)}–${r.high.toFixed(0)}` }), h('td', { text: String(r.benchmarks.length), title: r.benchmarks.map((b) => `${b.benchmark}: ${(b.score * 100).toFixed(0)}`).join('\n') }), h('td', { text: r.price === null ? 'no public price' : `${usd(r.price.blendedUsdPerMillion ?? 0)}/M tokens${r.price.match === 'normalized' ? ` (as ${r.price.pricedAs})` : ''}` }), h('td', { text: r.frontier === null ? '—' : r.frontier ? 'yes' : `beaten by ${r.beatenBy?.label ?? '—'}${r.beatenBy && !r.beatenBy.clear ? ' (within range)' : ''}` })))))), h('details', null, h('summary', { text: 'How each benchmark is weighted' }), ...c.weights.map((w) => h('p', { class: 'basis', text: `${w.benchmark}: weight ${w.weight.toFixed(2)} = independence ${w.independence} × contamination resistance ${w.contamination} × currency ${w.currency} (newest ${w.newest ?? 'undated'}, ${w.models} models). ${w.why}` }))), ...c.notes.map((n) => h('p', { class: 'basis', text: n })));
+    return h('div', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s3)' }, title, h('p', { class: 'basis', text: 'Expected score on a typical benchmark of this kind, 0–100. The range is how far it moves if any one benchmark is dropped.' }), h('div', { class: 'table-wrap' }, h('table', { 'aria-label': 'Consensus quality score, top models' }, h('thead', null, h('tr', null, ...['Model', 'Score', 'Range', 'Benchmarks', 'List price', 'Frontier'].map((t) => h('th', { scope: 'col', text: t })))), h('tbody', null, ...rows.map((r) => h('tr', null, h('td', { text: r.label }), h('td', { text: r.score.toFixed(0) }), h('td', { text: `${r.low.toFixed(0)}–${r.high.toFixed(0)}` }), h('td', { text: String(r.benchmarks.length), title: r.benchmarks.map((b) => `${b.benchmark}: ${(b.score * 100).toFixed(0)}`).join('\n') }), h('td', { text: publicPrice(r.price) }), h('td', { text: r.frontier === null ? '—' : r.frontier ? 'yes' : `beaten by ${r.beatenBy?.label ?? '—'}${r.beatenBy && !r.beatenBy.clear ? ' (within range)' : ''}` })))))), h('details', null, h('summary', { text: 'How each benchmark is weighted' }), ...c.weights.map((w) => h('p', { class: 'basis', text: `${w.benchmark}: weight ${w.weight.toFixed(2)} = independence ${w.independence} × contamination resistance ${w.contamination} × currency ${w.currency} (newest ${w.newest ?? 'undated'}, ${w.models} models). ${w.why}` }))), ...c.notes.map((n) => h('p', { class: 'basis', text: n })));
 }
 /** Public evidence only. It never reads the ledger and never enters a figure above it. */
-function marketCard(payload, failure) {
-    const title = h('h2', { class: 'section-title', text: 'Public model market — public evidence, not your results' });
+function marketCard(payload, failure, titled = true) {
+    const title = titled ? h('h2', { class: 'section-title', text: 'Public model market — public evidence, not your results' }) : null;
     if (failure)
         return h('section', { class: 'section' }, title, h('p', { class: 'drawer-error', role: 'alert', text: failure }));
     if (!payload)
@@ -201,9 +216,12 @@ function usageCoverageCard(usage) {
     if (!usage)
         return null;
     const retention = usage.retention;
+    const before = retention.prunedBeforeMs;
+    const boundary = typeof before === 'number' && Number.isFinite(before) && before > 0 && before <= 8.64e15
+        ? new Date(before).toISOString() : 'an unrecorded boundary';
     return h('div', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s4)' }, h('div', { class: 'card-head' }, h('span', { class: 'card-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Usage without code signals' : 'Chat, research, and drafting') })), h('div', { class: 'facts' }, h('div', { class: 'fact' }, h('span', { class: 'fact-key', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'observed sessions' : 'sessions') }), h('span', { class: 'fact-val', text: count(usage.units.length) })), h('div', { class: 'fact' }, h('span', { class: 'fact-key', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'reported realized' : 'realized') }), h('span', { class: 'fact-val', text: count(usage.realizedUnits) })), h('div', { class: 'fact' }, h('span', { class: 'fact-key', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'surviving cost' : 'cost recorded') }), h('span', { class: 'fact-val', text: usd(usage.totalCostUsd) }))), retention.truncated
         ? h('p', { class: 'drawer-error', role: 'status', text: () => (isPrecise()
-                ? `This usage window reaches behind retention: ${count(retention.rowsRemoved)} request row(s) were deleted before ${retention.prunedBeforeMs === null ? 'an unrecorded boundary' : new Date(retention.prunedBeforeMs).toISOString()}. Figures cover what survived, not everything metered.`
+                ? `This usage window reaches behind retention: ${count(retention.rowsRemoved)} request row(s) were deleted before ${boundary}. Figures cover what survived, not everything metered.`
                 : 'Some requests in this usage window were deleted by retention, so these figures cover what remains rather than everything metered.') })
         : null, h('p', { class: 'basis', text: () => (isPrecise()
             ? 'These sessions have no captured code proposals; reported outcomes remain observational and do not become coding value.'
@@ -241,7 +259,7 @@ function modelSwitchCoverageCard(frontier) {
             : null, retentionUnknown > 0
             ? h('p', { class: 'basis', role: 'status', text: () => (isPrecise()
                     ? `${count(retentionUnknown)} included unit(s) predate the retention-coverage record, so whether their spend window lost rows is unknown.`
-                    : `For ${count(retentionUnknown)} included unit(s), we cannot tell whether retention deleted spend because their snapshots predate the coverage record.`) })
+                    : `For ${count(retentionUnknown)} included unit(s) there's no record of whether old spend was deleted: they're older than that record.`) })
             : null, h('p', { class: 'basis', text: () => (isPrecise()
                 ? `Observed headroom ${usd(recommendation.historicalEquivalentHeadroomUsd)}; this is a local list-price comparison, not provider-billed savings.`
                 : `Observed headroom ${usd(recommendation.historicalEquivalentHeadroomUsd)}; this is not a promise of future savings.`) }));
@@ -266,7 +284,7 @@ export function valueView() {
             .then((payload) => causal.set(payload))
             .catch((e) => causalError.set(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e)));
     });
-    return h('div', null, h('div', { class: 'view-head' }, h('h1', { class: 'view-title', text: 'Realized' }), h('p', { class: 'view-plain', text: () => isPrecise()
+    return h('div', null, h('div', { class: 'view-head' }, h('h1', { class: 'view-title', text: 'Value' }), h('p', { class: 'view-plain', text: () => isPrecise()
             ? 'Realized value over matured work units, rework-discounted. Acceptance is not an outcome and is never counted as one.'
             : 'What the AI spend actually produced — counting only work that shipped and stayed shipped, not work that merely got accepted.' })), () => {
         const err = error();
@@ -278,13 +296,15 @@ export function valueView() {
         const matured = d.realization?.matured ?? null;
         const established = (matured?.realizedUnits ?? 0) > 0;
         if (!established) {
-            return h('div', null, h('div', { class: 'notyet' }, h('h2', { text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Realized value is not established' : 'We cannot tell you this yet') }), h('p', { text: () => (isPrecise()
+            return h('div', null, h('div', { class: 'notyet' }, h('h2', { text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Realized value is not established' : 'Nothing to show yet') }), h('p', { text: () => (isPrecise()
                     ? 'No work units have matured into verified outcomes on this machine. This is an absence of evidence, not a realized value of zero — the two must not be reported alike.'
-                    : 'Nothing has been observed all the way through to a shipped, surviving outcome yet. That is missing evidence, not an answer of nothing.') }), h('p', { class: 'basis', text: () => (isPrecise()
+                    : 'No work has been followed all the way to shipped and kept yet. That is missing evidence, not zero.') }), h('p', { class: 'basis', text: () => (isPrecise()
                     ? 'Maturation requires observable outcomes: a repository whose history can be read, or imported units with recorded gate results.'
-                    : 'Segreant needs somewhere to watch outcomes happen — usually a code repository — before it can say what the spend produced.') })), causalStudyCard(causal(), causalError()), usageCoverageCard(d.usage), selfReportedCard(d.selfReported, refresh), marketCard(market(), marketError()), actions());
+                    : 'Segreant needs somewhere to watch outcomes happen — usually a code repository — before it can say what the spend produced.') })), selfReportedCard(d.selfReported, refresh), fold(() => (isPrecise() ? 'Usage without code signals' : 'Chat, research and drafting'), usageCoverageCard(d.usage)), fold(() => (isPrecise() ? 'Causal study evidence' : 'Is any of this proven to be caused by AI?'), causalStudyCard(causal(), causalError())), fold(() => 'Public model market: public evidence, not your results', marketCard(market(), marketError(), false)), actions());
         }
         const funnel = matured?.instrumentation ?? {};
+        const gatePasses = matured?.gatePasses ?? {};
+        const maturedUnits = matured?.units ?? 0;
         // Gates where two sources disagreed. Shown separately from the counts
         // because a contradiction is not a measurement of the gate, and because
         // the legacy projection renders it as a plain failure (AII-003).
@@ -296,7 +316,7 @@ export function valueView() {
         const drift = d.drift ?? null;
         const ret = d.roi?.returnRatio ?? null;
         const economic = matured?.economic ?? null;
-        return h('div', null, d.demo ? h('div', { class: 'banner banner-demo' }, h('span', { class: 'pill pill-demo', text: 'demo' }), h('p', null, h('strong', { text: 'Sample data. ' }), 'These outcomes were seeded, not observed on your machine.')) : null, causalStudyCard(causal(), causalError()), 
+        return h('div', null, d.demo ? h('div', { class: 'banner banner-demo' }, h('span', { class: 'pill pill-demo', text: 'demo' }), h('p', null, h('strong', { text: 'Sample data. ' }), 'These outcomes were seeded, not observed on your machine.')) : null, 
         // Basis before figure. Which of the two sources produced this, and whether
         // the dollars are scoped to the project or merely summed over a window,
         // change what the headline means.
@@ -335,13 +355,13 @@ export function valueView() {
         (matured?.spendWindowUnknownUnits ?? 0) > 0
             ? h('span', { class: 'basis', text: () => (isPrecise()
                     ? `${count(matured?.spendWindowUnknownUnits)} unit(s) predate the retention-coverage record, so whether their spend window lost rows is unknown.`
-                    : `For ${count(matured?.spendWindowUnknownUnits)} of these we cannot tell whether any cost records were deleted.`) })
+                    : `For ${count(matured?.spendWindowUnknownUnits)} of these, Segreant has no record of whether any cost rows were deleted.`) })
             : null), economic
             ? h('p', { class: 'basis', role: 'status', text: () => {
                     if (economic.coverage === 'legacy_unknown' || economic.total === null) {
                         return isPrecise()
                             ? 'Exact economic coverage: legacy_unknown — these snapshots predate exact request evidence, so numeric costs are compatibility projections.'
-                            : 'Exact economic coverage is not available for these snapshots; the cost figures are legacy compatibility totals.';
+                            : 'These older snapshots have no exact per-request prices, so their costs are approximate totals.';
                     }
                     const total = economic.total;
                     if (economic.coverage === 'partial' || total.unresolvedRequests > 0) {
@@ -373,22 +393,22 @@ export function valueView() {
                     : ret.supervisionPriced
                         ? 'the AI spend plus your own measured time, priced at your labour rate'
                         : 'the AI spend plus an estimate of the time it took you') })))
-            : h('div', { class: 'notyet', style: 'margin-top: var(--s4)' }, h('h2', { text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Realized value is not priced' : 'We cannot put a figure on this') }), h('p', { text: () => (isPrecise()
-                    ? 'Work matured, but no labour rate is configured, so the value it produced cannot be expressed in dollars. The rate below is still computable; the money figure is not.'
-                    : 'Work did get finished, but Segreant has no hourly rate to value it against — so it can tell you how much stuck, but not what it was worth.') })), 
+            : h('div', { class: 'notyet', style: 'margin-top: var(--s4)' }, h('h2', { text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Value of kept work: no price set' : 'No dollar figure yet') }), h('p', { text: () => (isPrecise()
+                    ? 'Work matured, but no labour rate is set, so its value has no dollar figure. The rate below is still computed.'
+                    : 'Work did get finished, but Segreant has no hourly rate to value it against. It can tell you how much you kept, not what it was worth.') })), 
         // The money face is an observed/manual-equivalent scenario. A separate
         // qualified randomized study is required for causal economics.
         ret && typeof ret.grossRatio === 'number'
             ? h('div', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s4)' }, h('div', { class: 'card-head' }, h('span', { class: 'card-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Observed value scenario' : 'The value it looks like it delivered') }), h('span', {
                 class: 'pill pill-warn',
-                text: 'not causal evidence',
+                text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'not causal evidence' : "doesn't prove cause"),
             })), h('div', { class: 'stat', text: `${ret.grossRatio.toFixed(2)}\u00d7` }), h('span', { class: 'basis', text: () => (isPrecise()
                     ? 'realized manual-equivalent value divided by tokens plus measured time; a qualified randomized study is required for causal net benefit'
-                    : 'This uses the value of work that stuck and what it cost in AI and time. It cannot tell us what would have happened without AI.') }))
+                    : "This compares the value of work you kept with what it cost in AI and time. It doesn't show what would have happened without AI.") }))
             : null, 
         // Realization rate with its partial-identification bounds. A point estimate
         // alone would overstate how precisely this is known.
-        h('div', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s4)' }, h('div', { class: 'card-head' }, h('span', { class: 'card-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Realization rate' : 'How much of the work stuck') })), h('div', { class: 'stat', text: pct(matured?.realizationRate, 0) }), bounds
+        h('div', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s4)' }, h('div', { class: 'card-head' }, h('span', { class: 'card-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Realization rate' : 'How much of the work you kept') })), h('div', { class: 'stat', text: pct(matured?.realizationRate, 0) }), bounds
             ? h('span', { class: 'basis', text: () => (isPrecise()
                     ? `partial-identification bounds ${pct(bounds.lower, 0)}–${pct(bounds.upper, 0)} over n=${count(bounds.n)}`
                     : `somewhere between ${pct(bounds.lower, 0)} and ${pct(bounds.upper, 0)}, based on ${count(bounds.n)} pieces of work`) })
@@ -398,26 +418,26 @@ export function valueView() {
                 text: () => (drift.alarm
                     ? (isPrecise()
                         ? `Drift alarm: the recent realization rate (${pct(drift.recentRate, 0)}) has departed from the overall rate (${pct(drift.overallRate, 0)}) beyond chance.`
-                        : `Warning: work has recently been sticking much less often than it used to (${pct(drift.recentRate, 0)} against ${pct(drift.overallRate, 0)} overall).`)
+                        : `Change alert: lately, much less of the work has been kept (${pct(drift.recentRate, 0)}, against ${pct(drift.overallRate, 0)} overall).`)
                     : (isPrecise()
                         ? `The drift alarm did not fire over n=${count(drift.n)} mature units.`
                             + (drift.referenceDriftWouldFire === false
                                 ? ' At this length the same test does not fire even on a total regime change, so its silence carries no information.'
                                 : ' An e-process bounds false alarms and not missed ones, so this is not evidence that the rate held.')
-                        : `Nothing has tripped the drift watch over ${count(drift.n)} pieces of work`
+                        : `No change alert fired over ${count(drift.n)} pieces of work`
                             + (drift.referenceDriftWouldFire === false
-                                ? ', but that is too few for this check to notice a change at all yet.'
-                                : ' — which is not the same as knowing the rate held steady.'))),
+                                ? ", but that's too few for the check to notice a change yet."
+                                : ". That doesn't prove the rate held steady."))),
             })
             : null), 
         // The actionable part: where units die and what that costs.
         waste.length > 0
-            ? h('section', { class: 'section' }, h('h2', { class: 'section-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Where value is lost' : 'Where the work fell over') }), h('p', { class: 'view-plain', text: () => (isPrecise()
-                    ? `Of ${usd(matured?.totalCostUsd)} attributed to matured units, ${usd(matured?.spendOnRealizedUnitsUsd)} reached a kept outcome and ${usd(wasteCost)} did not. These are spend figures, not value.`
-                    : `Of the ${usd(matured?.totalCostUsd)} spent on this work, ${usd(matured?.spendOnRealizedUnitsUsd)} went on work that stuck and ${usd(wasteCost)} went on work that did not.`) }), h('div', { class: 'ledger', role: 'table', 'aria-label': 'Where value was lost, by stopping stage' }, h('div', { class: 'ledger-head', role: 'row' }, h('span', { role: 'columnheader', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Stopped at' : 'Where it stopped') }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-calls', role: 'columnheader', text: 'Units' }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-cost', role: 'columnheader', text: 'Cost' }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-share', role: 'columnheader', text: 'Share' })), ...waste
+            ? h('section', { class: 'section' }, h('h2', { class: 'section-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Where value is lost' : 'Where work was lost') }), h('p', { class: 'view-plain', text: () => (isPrecise()
+                    ? `Of ${usd(matured?.totalCostUsd)} attributed to matured units, ${usd(matured?.spendOnRealizedUnitsUsd)} reached a realized outcome and ${usd(wasteCost)} did not. These are spend figures, not value.`
+                    : `Of the ${usd(matured?.totalCostUsd)} spent on this work, ${usd(matured?.spendOnRealizedUnitsUsd)} went on work you kept and ${usd(wasteCost)} on work you didn't.`) }), h('div', { class: 'ledger', role: 'table', 'aria-label': 'Where value was lost, by stopping stage' }, h('div', { class: 'ledger-head', role: 'row' }, h('span', { role: 'columnheader', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'First failed gate' : 'What went wrong') }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-calls', role: 'columnheader', text: 'Units' }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-cost', role: 'columnheader', text: 'Cost' }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-share', role: 'columnheader', text: 'Share' })), ...waste
                 .slice()
                 .sort((a, b) => b.costUsd - a.costUsd)
-                .map((w) => h('div', { class: 'ledger-row', role: 'row' }, h('span', { class: 'ledger-key', role: 'cell', text: () => (isPrecise() ? w.stage : `stopped after ${STOPPED_AFTER[w.stage] ?? w.stage}`) }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-calls', role: 'cell', text: `${count(w.units)} ${plural(w.units, 'unit', 'units')}` }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-cost ledger-cost', role: 'cell', text: usd(w.costUsd) }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-share', role: 'cell', text: wasteCost > 0 ? pct(w.costUsd / wasteCost, 0) : '—' }), h('span', {
+                .map((w) => h('div', { class: 'ledger-row', role: 'row' }, h('span', { class: 'ledger-key', role: 'cell', text: () => (isPrecise() ? w.stage : (FAILED_AT[w.stage] ?? w.stage)) }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-calls', role: 'cell', text: `${count(w.units)} ${plural(w.units, 'unit', 'units')}` }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-cost ledger-cost', role: 'cell', text: usd(w.costUsd) }), h('span', { class: 'num cell-share', role: 'cell', text: wasteCost > 0 ? share(w.costUsd / wasteCost) : '—' }), h('span', {
                 class: 'ledger-bar',
                 'aria-hidden': 'true',
                 style: `--fill: ${wasteCost > 0 ? Math.max(0.5, (w.costUsd / wasteCost) * 100) : 0}%`,
@@ -425,11 +445,26 @@ export function valueView() {
             : null, 
         // The funnel, as counts. Deliberately after the waste breakdown: the
         // question worth asking is where work dies, not how big the pipeline is.
+        // Passed, failed and not checked, side by side. This list used to show
+        // only how many units were CHECKED at each gate, under words like "was
+        // merged", so it read as a funnel that grew: merged 10, shipped 10,
+        // survived 13 (more work surviving than shipped).
         Object.keys(funnel).length > 0
-            ? h('section', { class: 'section' }, h('h2', { class: 'section-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Instrumented gates' : 'How far work got') }), h('div', { class: 'facts' }, ...Object.entries(funnel).map(([stage, n]) => h('div', { class: 'fact' }, h('span', { class: 'fact-key', text: () => (isPrecise() ? stage : (GATE_WORDS[stage] ?? stage)) }), h('span', { class: 'fact-val', text: count(n) })))), gateConflicts.length > 0
+            ? h('section', { class: 'section' }, h('h2', { class: 'section-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Checks passed at each step' : 'How far the work got') }), h('p', { class: 'view-plain', text: () => (isPrecise()
+                    ? `Matured units: ${count(maturedUnits)}. Each gate is judged on its own evidence, so a later gate can pass more often than an earlier one that had no signal.${gateConflicts.length > 0 ? ' Failed counts include contradicted evidence, listed below.' : ''}`
+                    : `Out of ${count(maturedUnits)} finished ${plural(maturedUnits, 'piece', 'pieces')} of work. "Not checked" means Segreant had no signal for that step, not that it failed.`) }), h('div', { class: 'ledger ledger-gates', role: 'table', 'aria-label': 'Checks passed at each step, finished work' }, h('div', { class: 'ledger-head', role: 'row' }, h('span', { role: 'columnheader', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Gate' : 'Step') }), h('span', { class: 'num', role: 'columnheader', text: 'Passed' }), h('span', { class: 'num', role: 'columnheader', text: 'Failed' }), h('span', { class: 'num', role: 'columnheader', text: 'Not checked' })), ...Object.entries(funnel).map(([stage, checked]) => {
+                const passed = gatePasses[stage] ?? 0;
+                const failed = Math.max(0, checked - passed);
+                const unchecked = Math.max(0, maturedUnits - checked);
+                return h('div', { class: 'ledger-row', role: 'row' }, h('span', { class: 'ledger-key', role: 'cell', text: () => (isPrecise() ? stage : (GATE_WORDS[stage] ?? stage)) }), h('span', { class: 'num gate-pass', role: 'cell', text: count(passed) }), h('span', { class: failed > 0 ? 'num gate-fail' : 'num', role: 'cell', text: count(failed) }), h('span', { class: 'num gate-unchecked', role: 'cell', text: count(unchecked) }), h('span', {
+                    class: 'ledger-bar',
+                    'aria-hidden': 'true',
+                    style: `--fill: ${maturedUnits > 0 ? (passed / maturedUnits) * 100 : 0}%`,
+                }));
+            })), gateConflicts.length > 0
                 ? h('p', { class: 'section-note', text: () => (isPrecise()
-                        ? `Contradicted evidence at ${gateConflicts.map(([stage, n]) => `${stage} (${n})`).join(', ')}: sources both supported and refuted these gates. The unit records a failure only because the three-valued projection has no other option — it is unadjudicated, not refuted.`
-                        : `Some evidence disagrees with itself at ${gateConflicts.map(([stage]) => (GATE_WORDS[stage] ?? stage)).join(', ')}. That is a conflict to resolve, not a result.`) })
+                        ? `Conflicting results at ${gateConflicts.map(([stage, n]) => `${stage} (${n})`).join(', ')}: some sources passed these steps and others failed them. They count as failed only because a step has no third "disputed" value; the conflict is unresolved, not a fail.`
+                        : `Results disagree with each other at ${gateConflicts.map(([stage]) => (GATE_WORDS[stage] ?? stage)).join(', ')}. That needs resolving; it isn't a result.`) })
                 : null)
             : null, d.reclaimed && typeof d.reclaimed.workWeeksSaved === 'number'
             ? h('div', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s4)' }, h('div', { class: 'card-head' }, h('span', { class: 'card-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Time reclaimed' : 'Time this saved') })), h('div', { class: 'stat', text: `${d.reclaimed.workWeeksSaved.toFixed(1)} work weeks` }), 
@@ -457,10 +492,15 @@ export function valueView() {
                         ? `${count(d.reclaimed?.uncreditedUnits)} matured ${plural(d.reclaimed?.uncreditedUnits ?? 0, 'unit', 'units')} earned no time credit (died, or had no baseline).`
                         : `${count(d.reclaimed?.uncreditedUnits)} ${plural(d.reclaimed?.uncreditedUnits ?? 0, 'piece', 'pieces')} of work got no credit here — they either failed, or we had nothing to compare them against.`) })
                 : null)
-            : null, modelSwitchCoverageCard(d.frontier), usageCoverageCard(d.usage), selfReportedCard(d.selfReported, refresh), marketCard(market(), marketError()), 
+            : null, selfReportedCard(d.selfReported, refresh), 
+        // Supporting evidence, folded. It used to run at full length after the
+        // answer, which made this a 7,500 px page (13,000 on a phone) with the
+        // public market tables alone longer than everything above them. Each
+        // fold says what it holds; nothing is removed.
+        h('h2', { class: 'section-title fold-head', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Supporting evidence' : 'More detail, if you want it') }), fold(() => (isPrecise() ? 'Model-switch trials' : 'Cheaper model trials'), modelSwitchCoverageCard(d.frontier)), fold(() => (isPrecise() ? 'Usage without code signals' : 'Chat, research and drafting'), usageCoverageCard(d.usage)), fold(() => (isPrecise() ? 'Causal study evidence' : 'Is any of this proven to be caused by AI?'), causalStudyCard(causal(), causalError())), fold(() => 'Public model market: public evidence, not your results', marketCard(market(), marketError(), false)), 
         // Per-user. The guardrail state is the content when the cohort is suppressed.
         team
-            ? h('div', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s4)' }, h('div', { class: 'card-head' }, h('span', { class: 'card-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Cohort distribution' : 'Across the people using it') }), h('span', {
+            ? fold(() => (isPrecise() ? 'Cohort distribution' : 'Across the people using it'), h('div', { class: 'card', style: 'margin-top: var(--s4)' }, h('div', { class: 'card-head' }, h('span', { class: 'card-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Cohort distribution' : 'Across the people using it') }), h('span', {
                 class: `pill ${team.suppressed || !team.enabled ? 'pill-unverified' : 'pill-ok'}`,
                 text: !team.enabled ? 'off' : team.suppressed ? 'suppressed' : 'distribution only',
             })), !team.enabled
@@ -475,14 +515,20 @@ export function valueView() {
                             ? `Distribution over ${count(team.distribution?.cohortSize)} users; individuals are never identified.`
                             : `Spread across ${count(team.distribution?.cohortSize)} people. Segreant never shows who is who.`) }), h('div', { class: 'facts' }, h('div', { class: 'fact' }, h('span', { class: 'fact-key', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'median extraction' : 'typical person gets back') }), h('span', { class: 'fact-val', text: pct(team.distribution.medianExtraction, 0) })), h('div', { class: 'fact' }, h('span', { class: 'fact-key', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'dispersion' : 'how evenly spread') }), h('span', { class: 'fact-val', text: team.distribution.broadBased
                             ? (isPrecise() ? `${team.distribution.dispersion.toFixed(2)} — broad-based` : 'fairly even')
-                            : (isPrecise() ? `${team.distribution.dispersion.toFixed(2)} — concentrated` : 'concentrated in a few') })), h('div', { class: 'fact' }, h('span', { class: 'fact-key', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'coaching headroom' : 'possible if everyone matched the middle') }), h('span', { class: 'fact-val', text: usd(team.distribution.coachingHeadroomUsd) })))))
+                            : (isPrecise() ? `${team.distribution.dispersion.toFixed(2)} — concentrated` : 'concentrated in a few') })), h('div', { class: 'fact' }, h('span', { class: 'fact-key', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'coaching headroom' : 'possible if everyone matched the middle') }), h('span', { class: 'fact-val', text: usd(team.distribution.coachingHeadroomUsd) }))))))
             : null, (d.roi?.notes?.length ?? 0) > 0
-            ? h('section', { class: 'section' }, h('h2', { class: 'section-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Method notes' : 'How this was worked out') }), h('p', { class: 'scope-note', text: () => (isPrecise()
+            ? fold(() => (isPrecise() ? 'Method notes' : 'How this was worked out'), h('section', null, h('p', { class: 'scope-note', text: () => (isPrecise()
                     ? 'These notes are stated on the manual-equivalent value basis (the figures in Realized value and Honest cost above), not on the attributed-spend basis used in the waste breakdown.'
-                    : 'These notes talk about what the work was worth and what your time cost — not the smaller AI-spend figures further down the page.') }), h('ul', { class: 'drawer-notes' }, ...(d.roi?.notes ?? []).slice(0, 8).map((n) => h('li', { text: n }))))
+                    : 'These notes talk about what the work was worth and what your time cost — not the smaller AI-spend figures further down the page.') }), h('ul', { class: 'drawer-notes' }, ...(d.roi?.notes ?? []).slice(0, 8).map((n) => h('li', { text: n })))))
             : null, actions());
     });
 }
+/** A closed section whose summary names what it holds. Nothing in it is hidden from the DOM. */
+function fold(title, body) {
+    if (body === null)
+        return null;
+    return h('details', { class: 'fold' }, h('summary', { class: 'fold-summary', text: title }), body);
+}
 function actions() {
     return h('section', { class: 'section' }, h('h2', { class: 'section-title', text: () => (isPrecise() ? 'Actions on this layer' : 'Things you can do with this') }), h('div', { class: 'actions' }, actionCard('roi'), actionCard('realize'), actionCard('frontier'), actionCard('saved'), actionCard('judge'), actionCard('team')));
 }