riksdagsmonitor 0.8.23 → 0.8.24

package/dist/scripts/data-transformers/policy-analysis.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
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package/dist/scripts/data-transformers/risk-analysis.d.ts

@@ -1,104 +0,0 @@
-/**
- * @module data-transformers/risk-analysis
- * @description Political risk analysis for parliamentary intelligence.
- * Provides coalition risk scoring, anomalous pattern detection, and
- * trend comparison capabilities for the Riksdagsmonitor platform.
- *
- * @author Hack23 AB
- * @license Apache-2.0
- */
-import type { CIAContext } from './types.js';
-/** Risk level categories for coalition stability assessment */
-export type RiskLevel = 'LOW' | 'MEDIUM' | 'HIGH' | 'CRITICAL';
-/** Component scores for coalition risk index */
-export interface CoalitionRiskComponents {
-    /** Voting discipline score (0-100, higher = more disciplined = lower risk) */
-    votingDiscipline: number;
-    /** Party defection risk (0-100, higher = more defections = higher risk) */
-    defectionRisk: number;
-    /** Confidence threshold proximity (0-100, higher = closer to losing majority = higher risk) */
-    majorityMarginRisk: number;
-}
-/** Coalition risk index result */
-export interface CoalitionRiskIndex {
-    /** Composite risk score 0-100 (higher = more risk) */
-    score: number;
-    /** Categorical risk level */
-    level: RiskLevel;
-    /** Individual component scores */
-    components: CoalitionRiskComponents;
-    /** Human-readable summary */
-    summary: string;
-}
-/** Anomaly flag detected in parliamentary data */
-export interface AnomalyFlag {
-    /** Type of anomaly detected */
-    type: 'CROSS_PARTY_VOTE' | 'LOW_COHESION' | 'HIGH_DEFECTION' | 'NARROW_MAJORITY' | 'UNSTABLE_COALITION';
-    /** Severity level */
-    severity: RiskLevel;
-    /** Human-readable description */
-    description: string;
-    /** Party or issue involved (if applicable) */
-    subject?: string;
-}
-/** Trend direction indicator */
-export type TrendDirection = 'IMPROVING' | 'STABLE' | 'DECLINING' | 'VOLATILE';
-/** Trend data point */
-export interface TrendDataPoint {
-    /** Time window label */
-    window: '30d' | '90d' | '365d';
-    /** Score or value at this window */
-    value: number;
-    /** Direction of trend relative to current */
-    direction: TrendDirection;
-    /** Percentage change */
-    changePercent: number;
-}
-/** Trend comparison result */
-export interface TrendComparison {
-    /** Trend data across time windows */
-    trends: TrendDataPoint[];
-    /** Overall trajectory */
-    overallDirection: TrendDirection;
-    /** Key insights from trend analysis */
-    insights: string[];
-}
-/**
- * Calculate the Coalition Risk Index from CIA intelligence context.
- *
- * Combines three components:
- * - Voting discipline: derived from party cohesion scores
- * - Defection risk: derived from defection probability
- * - Majority margin risk: derived from the coalition's majority margin
- *
- * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined for safe fallback)
- * @returns Structured coalition risk index
- */
-export declare function calculateCoalitionRiskIndex(data: CIAContext | undefined): CoalitionRiskIndex;
-/**
- * Detect anomalous patterns in parliamentary voting and coalition data.
- *
- * Flags:
- * - Cross-party voting alignments where opposition aligns with coalition
- * - Low party cohesion scores
- * - High defection probability
- * - Narrow majority margins
- * - General coalition instability
- *
- * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined)
- * @returns Array of anomaly flags (empty if no anomalies detected)
- */
-export declare function detectAnomalousPatterns(data: CIAContext | undefined): AnomalyFlag[];
-/**
- * Generate 30/90/365-day trend comparison for coalition stability.
- *
- * Uses the stability score and party performance trends to project
- * historical trajectory. Since actual historical data is aggregated
- * in the CIA context, this function derives directional trends from
- * available trend indicators.
- *
- * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined)
- * @returns Trend comparison with direction indicators and insights
- */
-export declare function generateTrendComparison(data: CIAContext | undefined): TrendComparison;
-//# sourceMappingURL=risk-analysis.d.ts.map

package/dist/scripts/data-transformers/risk-analysis.d.ts.map

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package/dist/scripts/data-transformers/risk-analysis.js

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-/**
- * @module data-transformers/risk-analysis
- * @description Political risk analysis for parliamentary intelligence.
- * Provides coalition risk scoring, anomalous pattern detection, and
- * trend comparison capabilities for the Riksdagsmonitor platform.
- *
- * @author Hack23 AB
- * @license Apache-2.0
- */
-/**
- * Map a numeric stability score to a risk level.
- * Higher stability = lower risk.
- */
-function stabilityToRiskLevel(stabilityScore) {
-    if (stabilityScore >= 75)
-        return 'LOW';
-    if (stabilityScore >= 50)
-        return 'MEDIUM';
-    if (stabilityScore >= 25)
-        return 'HIGH';
-    return 'CRITICAL';
-}
-/**
- * Determine categorical risk level from composite score.
- */
-function scoreToRiskLevel(score) {
-    if (score < 25)
-        return 'LOW';
-    if (score < 50)
-        return 'MEDIUM';
-    if (score < 75)
-        return 'HIGH';
-    return 'CRITICAL';
-}
-/**
- * Calculate the Coalition Risk Index from CIA intelligence context.
- *
- * Combines three components:
- * - Voting discipline: derived from party cohesion scores
- * - Defection risk: derived from defection probability
- * - Majority margin risk: derived from the coalition's majority margin
- *
- * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined for safe fallback)
- * @returns Structured coalition risk index
- */
-export function calculateCoalitionRiskIndex(data) {
-    if (!data) {
-        return {
-            score: 50,
-            level: 'MEDIUM',
-            components: {
-                votingDiscipline: 50,
-                defectionRisk: 50,
-                majorityMarginRisk: 50,
-            },
-            summary: 'Insufficient data to assess coalition risk.',
-        };
-    }
-    const { coalitionStability, partyPerformance } = data;
-    // Component 1: Voting discipline (average cohesion score across parties, inverted to risk)
-    const cohesionScores = (partyPerformance ?? [])
-        .map(p => p.metrics.cohesionScore ?? 0)
-        .filter(s => s > 0);
-    const avgCohesion = cohesionScores.length > 0
-        ? cohesionScores.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / cohesionScores.length
-        : 50;
-    // Lower cohesion = higher discipline risk (invert)
-    const votingDiscipline = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, 100 - avgCohesion));
-    // Component 2: Defection risk (directly from defection probability, scaled 0-100)
-    const defectionRisk = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, (coalitionStability.defectionProbability ?? 0) * 100));
-    // Component 3: Majority margin risk (lower margin = higher risk)
-    // majorityMargin of 0 = critical (50 point risk), margin of 50+ = low risk
-    const margin = coalitionStability.majorityMargin ?? 0;
-    const majorityMarginRisk = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, margin <= 0 ? 90 : Math.max(5, 50 - margin * 2)));
-    // Composite score: weighted average (defection 40%, discipline 30%, margin 30%)
-    const score = Math.round(defectionRisk * 0.4 +
-        votingDiscipline * 0.3 +
-        majorityMarginRisk * 0.3);
-    const level = scoreToRiskLevel(score);
-    const stabilityLevel = stabilityToRiskLevel(coalitionStability.stabilityScore ?? 50);
-    const summary = level === 'CRITICAL'
-        ? `Coalition faces critical stability risk. Defection probability is elevated and majority margin is dangerously thin.`
-        : level === 'HIGH'
-            ? `Coalition stability is under strain. Voting discipline issues and defection risk require monitoring.`
-            : level === 'MEDIUM'
-                ? `Coalition shows moderate risk indicators. Stability score is ${coalitionStability.stabilityScore ?? 'unknown'} (${stabilityLevel}).`
-                : `Coalition demonstrates low risk. Voting discipline is strong and majority margin is adequate.`;
-    return {
-        score,
-        level,
-        components: {
-            votingDiscipline,
-            defectionRisk,
-            majorityMarginRisk,
-        },
-        summary,
-    };
-}
-/**
- * Detect anomalous patterns in parliamentary voting and coalition data.
- *
- * Flags:
- * - Cross-party voting alignments where opposition aligns with coalition
- * - Low party cohesion scores
- * - High defection probability
- * - Narrow majority margins
- * - General coalition instability
- *
- * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined)
- * @returns Array of anomaly flags (empty if no anomalies detected)
- */
-export function detectAnomalousPatterns(data) {
-    const flags = [];
-    if (!data)
-        return flags;
-    const { coalitionStability, partyPerformance, votingPatterns } = data;
-    // Check for coalition instability
-    if (coalitionStability.stabilityScore < 40) {
-        flags.push({
-            type: 'UNSTABLE_COALITION',
-            severity: coalitionStability.stabilityScore < 20 ? 'CRITICAL' : 'HIGH',
-            description: `Coalition stability score is critically low at ${coalitionStability.stabilityScore}.`,
-        });
-    }
-    // Check for narrow majority
-    if (coalitionStability.majorityMargin <= 2) {
-        flags.push({
-            type: 'NARROW_MAJORITY',
-            severity: coalitionStability.majorityMargin <= 0 ? 'CRITICAL' : 'HIGH',
-            description: `Coalition majority margin is only ${coalitionStability.majorityMargin} seat(s) — any defection risks government defeat.`,
-        });
-    }
-    // Check for high defection probability
-    if (coalitionStability.defectionProbability > 0.3) {
-        flags.push({
-            type: 'HIGH_DEFECTION',
-            severity: coalitionStability.defectionProbability > 0.6 ? 'CRITICAL' : 'HIGH',
-            description: `Defection probability is elevated at ${(coalitionStability.defectionProbability * 100).toFixed(0)}%.`,
-        });
-    }
-    // Check for low party cohesion
-    partyPerformance.forEach(party => {
-        const cohesion = party.metrics.cohesionScore ?? 100;
-        if (cohesion < 60) {
-            flags.push({
-                type: 'LOW_COHESION',
-                severity: cohesion < 40 ? 'HIGH' : 'MEDIUM',
-                description: `${party.partyName} shows low voting cohesion at ${cohesion.toFixed(0)}% — internal divisions are likely.`,
-                subject: party.partyName,
-            });
-        }
-    });
-    // Check for cross-party voting patterns (opposition aligning with coalition on key issues)
-    if (votingPatterns?.keyIssues) {
-        votingPatterns.keyIssues.forEach(issue => {
-            const crossPartyRate = issue.crossPartyVotes ?? 0;
-            if (crossPartyRate > 30) {
-                flags.push({
-                    type: 'CROSS_PARTY_VOTE',
-                    severity: crossPartyRate > 60 ? 'HIGH' : 'MEDIUM',
-                    description: `Unusually high cross-party voting (${crossPartyRate}%) detected on topic: ${issue.topic}.`,
-                    subject: issue.topic,
-                });
-            }
-        });
-    }
-    return flags;
-}
-/**
- * Generate 30/90/365-day trend comparison for coalition stability.
- *
- * Uses the stability score and party performance trends to project
- * historical trajectory. Since actual historical data is aggregated
- * in the CIA context, this function derives directional trends from
- * available trend indicators.
- *
- * @param data - CIA intelligence context (may be undefined)
- * @returns Trend comparison with direction indicators and insights
- */
-export function generateTrendComparison(data) {
-    if (!data) {
-        return {
-            trends: [
-                { window: '30d', value: 50, direction: 'STABLE', changePercent: 0 },
-                { window: '90d', value: 50, direction: 'STABLE', changePercent: 0 },
-                { window: '365d', value: 50, direction: 'STABLE', changePercent: 0 },
-            ],
-            overallDirection: 'STABLE',
-            insights: ['Insufficient data for trend analysis.'],
-        };
-    }
-    const currentScore = data.coalitionStability.stabilityScore ?? 50;
-    // Derive trend from party-level support trends
-    let improvingCount = 0;
-    let decliningCount = 0;
-    data.partyPerformance.forEach(party => {
-        if (party.trends.supportTrend === 'improving' || party.trends.activityTrend === 'increasing') {
-            improvingCount++;
-        }
-        else if (party.trends.supportTrend === 'declining' || party.trends.activityTrend === 'decreasing') {
-            decliningCount++;
-        }
-    });
-    const netTrendBias = improvingCount - decliningCount;
-    // Estimate past values based on current + trend bias
-    // These are derived estimates, not historical data points
-    const shortTermDelta = netTrendBias > 0 ? -3 : netTrendBias < 0 ? 3 : 0;
-    const medTermDelta = netTrendBias > 0 ? -6 : netTrendBias < 0 ? 6 : 0;
-    const longTermDelta = netTrendBias > 0 ? -10 : netTrendBias < 0 ? 10 : 0;
-    const score30d = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, currentScore + shortTermDelta));
-    const score90d = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, currentScore + medTermDelta));
-    const score365d = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, currentScore + longTermDelta));
-    function directionFromChange(change) {
-        if (Math.abs(change) < 2)
-            return 'STABLE';
-        if (change > 0)
-            return 'IMPROVING';
-        if (change < -5)
-            return 'VOLATILE';
-        return 'DECLINING';
-    }
-    const change30d = currentScore - score30d;
-    const change90d = currentScore - score90d;
-    const change365d = currentScore - score365d;
-    const trends = [
-        {
-            window: '30d',
-            value: score30d,
-            direction: directionFromChange(change30d),
-            changePercent: score30d > 0 ? Math.round((change30d / score30d) * 100) : 0,
-        },
-        {
-            window: '90d',
-            value: score90d,
-            direction: directionFromChange(change90d),
-            changePercent: score90d > 0 ? Math.round((change90d / score90d) * 100) : 0,
-        },
-        {
-            window: '365d',
-            value: score365d,
-            direction: directionFromChange(change365d),
-            changePercent: score365d > 0 ? Math.round((change365d / score365d) * 100) : 0,
-        },
-    ];
-    // Determine overall direction
-    const overallChange = change365d;
-    const overallDirection = directionFromChange(overallChange);
-    // Generate insights
-    const insights = [];
-    if (overallDirection === 'IMPROVING') {
-        insights.push('Coalition stability has been trending upward over the past year.');
-    }
-    else if (overallDirection === 'DECLINING') {
-        insights.push('Coalition stability shows a declining trend over the past year — monitor closely.');
-    }
-    else if (overallDirection === 'VOLATILE') {
-        insights.push('Coalition stability is highly volatile — significant shifts detected in trajectory.');
-    }
-    else {
-        insights.push('Coalition stability has remained broadly stable over the observed period.');
-    }
-    if (data.coalitionStability.majorityMargin <= 5) {
-        insights.push(`Thin majority margin of ${data.coalitionStability.majorityMargin} amplifies trend sensitivity.`);
-    }
-    if (data.partyPerformance.length > 0) {
-        const highActivity = data.partyPerformance
-            .filter(p => p.trends.activityTrend === 'increasing')
-            .map(p => p.partyName);
-        if (highActivity.length > 0) {
-            insights.push(`Increasing legislative activity from: ${highActivity.join(', ')}.`);
-        }
-    }
-    return {
-        trends,
-        overallDirection,
-        insights,
-    };
-}
-//# sourceMappingURL=risk-analysis.js.map

package/dist/scripts/data-transformers/risk-analysis.js.map

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