polymarket-risk-manager 3.1.0 → 3.2.0
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/README.md +13 -10
- package/index.js +2 -26
- package/kelly.js +46 -0
- package/package.json +2 -2
package/README.md
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@@ -1,26 +1,29 @@
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# polymarket-risk-manager
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Kelly
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Kelly stake sizing for Polymarket binary markets.
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##
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## Changelog
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### 3.2.0
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- Added `formatStakeUsd()` for fixed-point USD display
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### 3.1.0
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- Initial `computeKellyStake()` release
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## API
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## API
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```javascript
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const { computeKellyStake } = require('polymarket-risk-manager');
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const { computeKellyStake, formatStakeUsd } = require('polymarket-risk-manager');
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computeKellyStake({
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formatStakeUsd(computeKellyStake({
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probability: 0.58,
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allInPrice: 0.52,
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bankroll: 500,
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maxStake: 25,
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minStake: 5,
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});
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}));
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```
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## Licence
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package/index.js
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'use strict';
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function computeKellyStake({
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probability,
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allInPrice,
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bankroll,
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maxStake,
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minStake = 0,
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kellyFraction = 0.5,
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}) {
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if (
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!Number.isFinite(probability) ||
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!Number.isFinite(allInPrice) ||
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!Number.isFinite(bankroll) ||
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allInPrice <= 0 ||
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allInPrice >= 1
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) {
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return minStake;
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}
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const { computeKellyStake, formatStakeUsd } = require('./kelly.js');
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if (rawKelly <= 0) return minStake;
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const stake = bankroll * rawKelly * kellyFraction;
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return Math.min(maxStake, Math.max(minStake, stake));
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}
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module.exports = { computeKellyStake };
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module.exports = { computeKellyStake, formatStakeUsd };
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package/kelly.js
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'use strict';
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function round(value, dp) {
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const n = Number(value);
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const places = Number(dp) || 0;
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if (!Number.isFinite(n)) return NaN;
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const p = 10 ** places;
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return Math.round(n * p) / p;
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}
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function format(value, dp) {
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const n = round(value, dp);
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if (!Number.isFinite(n)) return String(value);
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return n.toFixed(dp == null ? 0 : dp);
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}
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function computeKellyStake({
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probability,
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allInPrice,
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bankroll,
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maxStake,
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minStake = 0,
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kellyFraction = 0.5,
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}) {
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if (
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!Number.isFinite(probability) ||
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!Number.isFinite(allInPrice) ||
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!Number.isFinite(bankroll) ||
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allInPrice <= 0 ||
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allInPrice >= 1
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) {
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return minStake;
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}
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const rawKelly = (probability - allInPrice) / (1 - allInPrice);
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if (rawKelly <= 0) return minStake;
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const stake = bankroll * rawKelly * kellyFraction;
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return round(Math.min(maxStake, Math.max(minStake, stake)), 2);
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}
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function formatStakeUsd(value) {
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return format(value, 2);
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}
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module.exports = { computeKellyStake, formatStakeUsd, round, format };
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package/package.json
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{
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"name": "polymarket-risk-manager",
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"version": "3.
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"version": "3.2.0",
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"description": "Polymarket Kelly stake sizing and decimal-safe rounding for binary markets",
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"main": "index.js",
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"files": ["index.js", "README.md"],
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"files": ["index.js", "kelly.js", "README.md"],
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"keywords": ["polymarket", "kelly", "prediction-markets", "stake"],
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"license": "MIT",
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"type": "commonjs"
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