polly-gamba 1.0.41 → 1.0.43

package/dist/claude-trader.js

@@ -103,7 +103,7 @@ class ClaudeTrader {
                     role: 'user',
                     content: `You are a Polymarket ${PAPER_MODE ? 'PAPER TRADING (no real money)' : 'paper'} trader running a high-volume moneyball strategy. Your job is to place paper trades on EVERY market where you have ANY opinion on fair value — even slight.
 ${PAPER_MODE ? '\n⚠️ PAPER MODE: This is a test environment. Be AGGRESSIVE — trade more, skip less. Lower your threshold to 3% edge for any market resolving within 6 months.\n' : ''}
-TOOLS: place_order, skip_all, get_budget_status, get_positions
+TOOLS: place_order, skip_all, get_budget_status, get_positions, scan_smart_money, get_wallet_positions, get_late_money, get_market_trades
 RULES:
 - Output ONLY tool calls. Zero prose.
 - For EVERY market in the list: if current price differs from your estimated fair probability by more than ${PAPER_MODE ? '3%' : '5%'}, place a trade.
@@ -116,8 +116,16 @@ RULES:
 ## POSITION DISCIPLINE:
 - Max $100 per market (20% of $500 budget). The MCP enforces this — don't fight it.
 - Same-direction re-entry is NEVER allowed while a position is open. You CANNOT average down into an existing open position. The MCP enforces this hard block. If you still believe in the thesis after a price drop, close the existing position first, then re-enter fresh next scan.
+- CORRELATED PAIRS: Holding YES on one election outcome + NO on the complementary outcome is one correlated exposure, not two independent bets. Count the combined notional against your per-theme cap ($20 total). They cannot both win.
 - exit_trigger is required on every trade. Be specific: "Exit when price hits 0.X" or "Exit when [specific news event]" — not "when narrative converges."
-- Call get_budget_status AND get_positions at the start of each scan to know available capital and your current open positions. get_positions returns {"positions": [...], "closed_markets": [...]}. You MUST review BOTH before trading to apply concentration AND closed-market discipline correctly.`
+- Call get_budget_status AND get_positions at the start of each scan to know available capital and your current open positions. get_positions returns {"positions": [...], "closed_markets": [...]}. You MUST review BOTH before trading to apply concentration AND closed-market discipline correctly.
+
+## SMART MONEY (poly-scout tools — use when evaluating edge):
+- scan_smart_money(): Returns top Polymarket wallets by ROI + their consensus positions. If 3+ smart wallets are on the same side of a market you're evaluating, treat it as +5pp edge boost on that side.
+- get_late_money(market_id): Detects unusual volume buildup in last 48h vs baseline. A strong late-money signal (confidence > 0.7) on a market you're already considering = stronger conviction. Do NOT trade solely on late money — use it as a corroborating signal alongside your own fair value estimate.
+- get_wallet_positions(address): Use to verify specific wallet's current positions when scan_smart_money flags them.
+- get_market_trades(token_id): Use to inspect raw trade flow on a specific market when you want to verify smart money claims.
+- Smart money is a signal amplifier, not a replacement for thesis. Always form your own fair value estimate first.`
                 }
             }));
             this.ready = true;
@@ -212,6 +220,7 @@ ${m.description ? `- Description: ${m.description.slice(0, 200)}` : ''}`).join('
 - Correlation examples: "Will Jesus return before GTA VI", "Will BTC hit $1M before GTA VI", "Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI" — all three resolve based on GTA VI's release date. They are the SAME theme.
 - Similarly: "Will Orbán be PM" and "Will Magyar be PM" are both the Hungary 2026 election — treat as same theme (you may hold both as a hedge pair, but do not add a third Hungary position).
 - IMPORTANT: All 2028 US election markets share one theme — "2028 US election". This includes: Dem primary nominees (Newsom, Harris, etc.), Rep primary nominees (Vance, Rubio, etc.), and the general election winner. Do NOT hold more than 2 positions across this entire cycle.
+- IMPORTANT: All Russia-Ukraine conflict markets share one theme — "Russia-Ukraine conflict". This includes: Putin removal, Zelenskyy removal, ceasefire timing, territorial outcomes, and any other market that resolves based on the Russia-Ukraine war's trajectory. Do NOT hold more than 2 positions across this entire theme.
 - If you're uncertain whether a market correlates to an existing theme, assume it does and skip.
 
 ## CLOSED MARKET DISCIPLINE (absolute rule — never override):
@@ -226,6 +235,35 @@ ${m.description ? `- Description: ${m.description.slice(0, 200)}` : ''}`).join('
 - Anchor fair value on base rates and world knowledge first; use sportsbooks to adjust by ±5pp only. If you cannot defend the estimate without the sportsbook line, the edge is too speculative.
 - Exception: if both Polymarket AND sportsbooks agree with your base-rate analysis, the convergence strengthens the thesis.
 
+## ELECTION MARKET DISCIPLINE (apply when any market involves a political election, referendum, or leadership transition):
+
+### Turnout Shock Screening
+Before sizing any election bet, assess turnout risk. If 2+ of these signals are present, apply a 40% DISCOUNT to any structural incumbency advantage in your fair-value estimate:
+- Pre-election voter registration spike >15% above the prior comparable election cycle
+- Opposition rally sizes or enthusiasm signals markedly above historical norms
+- "Change election" or "historic election" framing dominant across independent media
+- Predicted or early-voting turnout above the country's historical 90th percentile
+- Incumbent has been in power >12 years (fatigue compounds at this threshold)
+Rationale: Structural advantages (gerrymandering, media control, state resources) are calibrated for normal-turnout elections. When mobilization is historic, marginal voters break disproportionately for the opposition, inverting the structural model.
+
+### Historical Analog Quality
+When citing a historical precedent to anchor fair value (e.g. "in 2022, X happened"), you MUST assign it an explicit structural similarity score (0–100%) and state the key differences:
+- Score ≥80%: strong anchor, use as primary prior
+- Score 50–79%: weak anchor, adjust by ±5pp only, state the differences
+- Score <50%: discard the analogy, use base rates instead
+Example of a BAD analogy: Hungary 2026 ← Hungary 2022. Similarity ~50%: 2022 had 6-party unified opposition (fragmented, easy to split); 2026 had a single-party challenger (Magyar/TISZA, clean brand). Different structural conditions. Do not use 2022 to anchor Orbán's survival probability in 2026.
+
+### Regime-Fatigue Flag
+If an incumbent has been in power >10 years AND visible economic pain or corruption signals exist (inflation, stagnant wages, high-profile corruption exposed in mainstream coverage): flag this as a REGIME-FATIGUE ELECTION. In regime-fatigue elections, reduce structural incumbency advantage estimates by 30% before computing fair value. This reflects the empirical pattern that structural advantages erode faster than polling captures when voter frustration crosses a threshold.
+
+### Correlated Hedge Pair Sizing
+If you hold YES on one outcome AND NO on the complementary outcome in the same election (e.g., "Orbán becomes PM" YES + "Magyar becomes PM" NO), treat both positions TOGETHER as one correlated exposure unit:
+- Combined notional = sum of both position sizes
+- Both positions cannot simultaneously win — the upside and downside are correlated, not independent
+- Cap the combined notional at $20 (2 positions × $10), not $20 per leg
+- In the concentration table, label these as "HEDGE PAIR — one correlated exposure" and count them as 2/2 (theme FULL)
+- Do NOT add a third position to the same election even if the third market looks mispriced — you are already fully exposed to the outcome
+
 STEP 1: Call get_positions. Then output a THEME CONCENTRATION TABLE — list every theme with ≥1 open position, showing count/max (e.g. "2028 US election: 3/2 FULL", "GTA VI: 2/2 FULL", "Hungary 2026 election: 1/2"). Any theme showing FULL must be skipped entirely. You MUST output this table before evaluating any market.
 STEP 2: For each market, check your theme concentration table first. If the market's theme is FULL, skip it immediately. Otherwise apply horizon discipline, closed market discipline, and edge check.
 STEP 3: If price differs from your fair probability by the required edge (accounting for sportsbook haircut if applicable), place a trade ($10 USDC). Call skip_all only if you have zero opinion on all markets.`;
@@ -310,13 +348,13 @@ ${positionLines}
 
 CLOSE RULES — apply ALL that match, no thesis override allowed:
 1. Exit trigger condition has been met (e.g. specific price level hit, event occurred). Apply literally.
-2. Position is down >35% AND the fundamental thesis has materially weakened or been disproven (market structure changed, key assumption invalidated).
+2. Position is down >35% — HARD CLOSE. This is a programmatic rule enforced server-side; by the time you see this position it may already be closed. Do NOT override with thesis defense.
 3. Your side of the position is priced below 10% — HARD CLOSE. The market has strongly repriced against you. Do NOT override this with "thesis not disproven yet." At <10%, expected value of holding is near zero.
 4. Position is down >50% — HARD CLOSE regardless of thesis. Cut losses. No exceptions.
 5. You have 2+ open positions in the SAME market with the SAME outcome — close the NEWER entry (higher ts value) regardless of P&L. Duplicate same-outcome positions double exposure without incremental edge. Keep the original entry.
 6. Position is UP >25% from entry AND has been held >48h — CLOSE to lock in profits. The market has moved significantly in your favor; gains are now vulnerable to reversion. Use take_profit reason. Exception: if the resolution event is within 7 days AND the position is still clearly on the right side, you may hold until resolution.
 7. STALE POSITION: Position held >7 days AND price has moved <5% from entry AND resolution event is >30 days away — CLOSE to redeploy capital. A position that doesn't move over 7 days means the mispricing wasn't as large as estimated. Cut it, accept the small loss/gain, and redeploy to markets with active price movement.
-8. CONCENTRATION VIOLATION: Count open positions by underlying theme (the single real-world event that resolves all of them). Examples: "Will Jesus return before GTA VI", "Will BTC hit $1M before GTA VI", "Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI" all share the theme "GTA VI release date". Similarly "Will Spurs win NBA Finals", "Will OKC win NBA Finals", "Will Celtics win NBA Finals" all share the theme "2026 NBA Finals". IMPORTANT: All positions tied to the 2028 US election cycle share one theme — "2028 US election". This includes: 2028 Dem primary nominees (Newsom, etc.), 2028 Rep primary nominees (Vance, Rubio, etc.), and the 2028 general election winner — regardless of which stage of the race resolves each market. If you have 3+ positions in the same theme: close positions one by one (starting with the one whose current price is closest to 50/50) until you have ≤2 in that theme. If you have 4, you must close 2. If you have 5, close 3. Do NOT stop after closing just one if the theme still has 3+ positions. Apply this BEFORE checking other rules. This check requires the FULL position list — which is why Step 0 mandates calling get_positions first.
+8. CONCENTRATION VIOLATION: Count open positions by underlying theme (the single real-world event that resolves all of them). Examples: "Will Jesus return before GTA VI", "Will BTC hit $1M before GTA VI", "Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI" all share the theme "GTA VI release date". Similarly "Will Spurs win NBA Finals", "Will OKC win NBA Finals", "Will Celtics win NBA Finals" all share the theme "2026 NBA Finals". IMPORTANT: All positions tied to the 2028 US election cycle share one theme — "2028 US election". This includes: 2028 Dem primary nominees (Newsom, etc.), 2028 Rep primary nominees (Vance, Rubio, etc.), and the 2028 general election winner — regardless of which stage of the race resolves each market. IMPORTANT: All Russia-Ukraine conflict positions share one theme — "Russia-Ukraine conflict". This includes: Putin removal/survival, Zelenskyy removal/survival, ceasefire timing, territorial outcomes — any market that resolves based on how the Russia-Ukraine war progresses. If you have 3+ positions in the same theme: close positions one by one (starting with the one whose current price is closest to 50/50) until you have ≤2 in that theme. If you have 4, you must close 2. If you have 5, close 3. Do NOT stop after closing just one if the theme still has 3+ positions. Apply this BEFORE checking other rules. This check requires the FULL position list — which is why Step 0 mandates calling get_positions first.
 9. SPORTSBOOK THESIS DECAY: If the original reasoning cited a sportsbook cross-reference (e.g. "sportsbooks imply X%, Polymarket shows Y%") AND the position is currently down >20%: CLOSE immediately with reason "thesis_decayed". This is a mechanical rule — a -20% drawdown on a sportsbook arb trade is itself the signal that the cross-market gap has closed or the thesis was wrong. Do NOT attempt to re-estimate current sportsbook consensus or override based on "the sportsbook line is still there." The drawdown is the verdict. No exceptions.
 
 HOLD RULES: If NONE of the close rules apply and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).

package/dist/position-monitor.js

@@ -144,9 +144,9 @@ class PositionMonitor {
         const hardStopClosed = [];
         for (const candidate of reviewCandidates) {
             const isPriceBelowFloor = candidate.current_price <= 0.10;
-            const isLargeEnoughLoss = candidate.gain_pct <= -0.50;
+            const isLargeEnoughLoss = candidate.gain_pct <= -0.35;
             if (isPriceBelowFloor || isLargeEnoughLoss) {
-                await this.executeHardStop(candidate, isPriceBelowFloor ? 'price_below_floor' : 'stop_loss_50pct');
+                await this.executeHardStop(candidate, isPriceBelowFloor ? 'price_below_floor' : 'stop_loss_35pct');
                 hardStopClosed.push(candidate.market_id);
             }
         }

package/dist/test/stress.js

@@ -257,15 +257,15 @@ async function runHardStopTests() {
         const isPriceBelowFloor = price <= 0.10;
         assert(isPriceBelowFloor, 'price=0.08 should trigger floor stop');
     });
-    await test('F2: loss = -50% triggers stop-loss', async () => {
-        const gain = -0.50;
-        const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.50;
-        assert(isLargeEnoughLoss, 'exactly -50% should trigger stop-loss');
+    await test('F2: loss = -35% triggers stop-loss', async () => {
+        const gain = -0.35;
+        const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.35;
+        assert(isLargeEnoughLoss, 'exactly -35% should trigger stop-loss');
     });
-    await test('F3: loss = -49.9% does NOT trigger stop-loss', async () => {
-        const gain = -0.499;
-        const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.50;
-        assert(!isLargeEnoughLoss, '-49.9% should NOT trigger stop-loss');
+    await test('F3: loss = -34.9% does NOT trigger stop-loss', async () => {
+        const gain = -0.349;
+        const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.35;
+        assert(!isLargeEnoughLoss, '-34.9% should NOT trigger stop-loss');
     });
     await test('F4: price = 0.10 triggers floor (boundary — off-by-one vs stated rule)', async () => {
         // Code uses <= 0.10 but the Claude prompt rule says "priced below 10%"
@@ -275,12 +275,12 @@ async function runHardStopTests() {
         assert(isPriceBelowFloor, 'price=0.10 triggers stop (code behavior)');
         console.log('\n    [NOTE] Boundary: price=0.10 triggers hard stop. Prompt says "<10%" but code uses "<=0.10".');
     });
-    await test('F5: price > 0.10 and loss < 50% — no hard stop', async () => {
+    await test('F5: price > 0.10 and loss < 35% — no hard stop', async () => {
         const price = 0.12;
-        const gain = -0.40;
+        const gain = -0.30;
         const isPriceBelowFloor = price <= 0.10;
-        const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.50;
-        assert(!isPriceBelowFloor && !isLargeEnoughLoss, 'price=0.12, -40% should not trigger hard stop');
+        const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.35;
+        assert(!isPriceBelowFloor && !isLargeEnoughLoss, 'price=0.12, -30% should not trigger hard stop');
     });
 }
 // ─── G) Double-Close Bug ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "polly-gamba",
-  "version": "1.0.41",
+  "version": "1.0.43",
   "description": "Coinbase price signal → Claude brain → Polymarket CLOB execution",
   "main": "dist/index.js",
   "bin": {

package/service.log

@@ -4723,3 +4723,306 @@ npm warn deprecated prebuild-install@7.1.3: No longer maintained. Please contact
 [expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
 [gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
 [scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558936 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553866 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567689 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566142 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540844 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 562828 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566188 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559651 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567621 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=22 review_candidates=5 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — missing 0.5h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — missing 0.5h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — missing 0.5h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — missing 0.2h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] checked=22 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 17 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[position-monitor] checked=22 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558936 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553866 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567689 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566142 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540844 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 562828 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566188 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559651 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567621 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 561975 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567561 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567560 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=22 review_candidates=3 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558936 YES — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553866 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567689 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566142 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540844 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553862 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 562828 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566188 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559651 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567621 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 560317 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 561230 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 561975 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567561 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567560 YES — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567687 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=22 review_candidates=1 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[signal] ETH up 0.51% @ $2,099.48 over 58s
+[signal] ETH up 0.51% @ $2,099.48
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 497 markets (filtered from 500)
+[match] 20 markets for ETH signal
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[scan] 18 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — missing 0.4h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — missing 0.4h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — missing 0.4h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — missing 0.4h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — missing 0.4h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] checked=22 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[coinbase-ws] Disconnected — reconnecting in 5s
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[coinbase-ws] Error: write EPIPE
+[coinbase-ws] Disconnected — reconnecting in 5s
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — missing 0.7h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — missing 0.7h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — missing 0.7h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — missing 0.7h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — missing 0.7h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] checked=22 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] checked=21 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[signal] BTC up 0.50% @ $69,391.68 over 29s
+[signal] BTC up 0.50% @ $69,391.68
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 497 markets (filtered from 500)
+[match] 1 markets for BTC signal
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,124.37 over 3s
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,124.37
+[match] 20 markets for ETH signal
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=21 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — missing 0.3h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558936 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553866 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567689 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540844 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553862 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566188 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559651 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567621 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 560317 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=21 review_candidates=4 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — missing 0.5h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — missing 0.5h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 18 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[position-monitor] checked=21 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 18 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=21 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[signal] BTC up 0.50% @ $69,709.14 over 59s
+[signal] BTC up 0.50% @ $69,709.14
+[match] 1 markets for BTC signal
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,138.63 over 60s
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,138.63
+[match] 20 markets for ETH signal
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — missing 0.4h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558936 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567689 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540844 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553862 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 562828 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559651 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567621 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 560317 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 561975 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567561 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567560 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567687 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=21 review_candidates=2 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[signal] ETH down -0.50% @ $2,139.8 over 37s
+[signal] ETH down 0.50% @ $2,139.8
+[match] 20 markets for ETH signal
+[signal] BTC down -0.50% @ $69,838.62 over 60s
+[signal] BTC down 0.50% @ $69,838.62
+[match] 1 markets for BTC signal
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — missing 0.5h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — missing 0.2h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — missing 0.2h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558936 YES — missing 0.2h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567689 NO — missing 0.2h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540844 NO — missing 0.2h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553862 YES — missing 0.2h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 560317 NO — missing 0.2h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567687 NO — missing 0.2h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] checked=21 review_candidates=3 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 18 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — missing 0.8h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] checked=21 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — missing 1.0h (closes after 24h continuous)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=21 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 18 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[signal] BTC up 0.50% @ $70,410.96 over 60s
+[signal] BTC up 0.50% @ $70,410.96
+[match] 1 markets for BTC signal
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,162.53 over 59s
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,162.53
+[match] 20 markets for ETH signal
+[position-monitor] checked=21 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+npm warn deprecated prebuild-install@7.1.3: No longer maintained. Please contact the author of the relevant native addon; alternatives are available.
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 18 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 498 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[position-monitor] checked=21 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready

package/settings.json

@@ -7,6 +7,13 @@
         "REDIS_URL": "redis://localhost:6379",
         "POLLY_REDIS_PREFIX": "polly"
       }
+    },
+    "poly-scout": {
+      "command": "npx",
+      "args": ["--yes", "-y", "@gonzih/poly-scout"],
+      "env": {
+        "REDIS_URL": "redis://localhost:6379"
+      }
     }
   }
 }

package/src/claude-trader.ts

@@ -120,7 +120,7 @@ export class ClaudeTrader {
           role: 'user',
           content: `You are a Polymarket ${PAPER_MODE ? 'PAPER TRADING (no real money)' : 'paper'} trader running a high-volume moneyball strategy. Your job is to place paper trades on EVERY market where you have ANY opinion on fair value — even slight.
 ${PAPER_MODE ? '\n⚠️ PAPER MODE: This is a test environment. Be AGGRESSIVE — trade more, skip less. Lower your threshold to 3% edge for any market resolving within 6 months.\n' : ''}
-TOOLS: place_order, skip_all, get_budget_status, get_positions
+TOOLS: place_order, skip_all, get_budget_status, get_positions, scan_smart_money, get_wallet_positions, get_late_money, get_market_trades
 RULES:
 - Output ONLY tool calls. Zero prose.
 - For EVERY market in the list: if current price differs from your estimated fair probability by more than ${PAPER_MODE ? '3%' : '5%'}, place a trade.
@@ -133,8 +133,16 @@ RULES:
 ## POSITION DISCIPLINE:
 - Max $100 per market (20% of $500 budget). The MCP enforces this — don't fight it.
 - Same-direction re-entry is NEVER allowed while a position is open. You CANNOT average down into an existing open position. The MCP enforces this hard block. If you still believe in the thesis after a price drop, close the existing position first, then re-enter fresh next scan.
+- CORRELATED PAIRS: Holding YES on one election outcome + NO on the complementary outcome is one correlated exposure, not two independent bets. Count the combined notional against your per-theme cap ($20 total). They cannot both win.
 - exit_trigger is required on every trade. Be specific: "Exit when price hits 0.X" or "Exit when [specific news event]" — not "when narrative converges."
-- Call get_budget_status AND get_positions at the start of each scan to know available capital and your current open positions. get_positions returns {"positions": [...], "closed_markets": [...]}. You MUST review BOTH before trading to apply concentration AND closed-market discipline correctly.`
+- Call get_budget_status AND get_positions at the start of each scan to know available capital and your current open positions. get_positions returns {"positions": [...], "closed_markets": [...]}. You MUST review BOTH before trading to apply concentration AND closed-market discipline correctly.
+
+## SMART MONEY (poly-scout tools — use when evaluating edge):
+- scan_smart_money(): Returns top Polymarket wallets by ROI + their consensus positions. If 3+ smart wallets are on the same side of a market you're evaluating, treat it as +5pp edge boost on that side.
+- get_late_money(market_id): Detects unusual volume buildup in last 48h vs baseline. A strong late-money signal (confidence > 0.7) on a market you're already considering = stronger conviction. Do NOT trade solely on late money — use it as a corroborating signal alongside your own fair value estimate.
+- get_wallet_positions(address): Use to verify specific wallet's current positions when scan_smart_money flags them.
+- get_market_trades(token_id): Use to inspect raw trade flow on a specific market when you want to verify smart money claims.
+- Smart money is a signal amplifier, not a replacement for thesis. Always form your own fair value estimate first.`
         }
       }))
       this.ready = true
@@ -240,6 +248,7 @@ ${m.description ? `- Description: ${m.description.slice(0, 200)}` : ''}`).join('
 - Correlation examples: "Will Jesus return before GTA VI", "Will BTC hit $1M before GTA VI", "Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI" — all three resolve based on GTA VI's release date. They are the SAME theme.
 - Similarly: "Will Orbán be PM" and "Will Magyar be PM" are both the Hungary 2026 election — treat as same theme (you may hold both as a hedge pair, but do not add a third Hungary position).
 - IMPORTANT: All 2028 US election markets share one theme — "2028 US election". This includes: Dem primary nominees (Newsom, Harris, etc.), Rep primary nominees (Vance, Rubio, etc.), and the general election winner. Do NOT hold more than 2 positions across this entire cycle.
+- IMPORTANT: All Russia-Ukraine conflict markets share one theme — "Russia-Ukraine conflict". This includes: Putin removal, Zelenskyy removal, ceasefire timing, territorial outcomes, and any other market that resolves based on the Russia-Ukraine war's trajectory. Do NOT hold more than 2 positions across this entire theme.
 - If you're uncertain whether a market correlates to an existing theme, assume it does and skip.
 
 ## CLOSED MARKET DISCIPLINE (absolute rule — never override):
@@ -254,6 +263,35 @@ ${m.description ? `- Description: ${m.description.slice(0, 200)}` : ''}`).join('
 - Anchor fair value on base rates and world knowledge first; use sportsbooks to adjust by ±5pp only. If you cannot defend the estimate without the sportsbook line, the edge is too speculative.
 - Exception: if both Polymarket AND sportsbooks agree with your base-rate analysis, the convergence strengthens the thesis.
 
+## ELECTION MARKET DISCIPLINE (apply when any market involves a political election, referendum, or leadership transition):
+
+### Turnout Shock Screening
+Before sizing any election bet, assess turnout risk. If 2+ of these signals are present, apply a 40% DISCOUNT to any structural incumbency advantage in your fair-value estimate:
+- Pre-election voter registration spike >15% above the prior comparable election cycle
+- Opposition rally sizes or enthusiasm signals markedly above historical norms
+- "Change election" or "historic election" framing dominant across independent media
+- Predicted or early-voting turnout above the country's historical 90th percentile
+- Incumbent has been in power >12 years (fatigue compounds at this threshold)
+Rationale: Structural advantages (gerrymandering, media control, state resources) are calibrated for normal-turnout elections. When mobilization is historic, marginal voters break disproportionately for the opposition, inverting the structural model.
+
+### Historical Analog Quality
+When citing a historical precedent to anchor fair value (e.g. "in 2022, X happened"), you MUST assign it an explicit structural similarity score (0–100%) and state the key differences:
+- Score ≥80%: strong anchor, use as primary prior
+- Score 50–79%: weak anchor, adjust by ±5pp only, state the differences
+- Score <50%: discard the analogy, use base rates instead
+Example of a BAD analogy: Hungary 2026 ← Hungary 2022. Similarity ~50%: 2022 had 6-party unified opposition (fragmented, easy to split); 2026 had a single-party challenger (Magyar/TISZA, clean brand). Different structural conditions. Do not use 2022 to anchor Orbán's survival probability in 2026.
+
+### Regime-Fatigue Flag
+If an incumbent has been in power >10 years AND visible economic pain or corruption signals exist (inflation, stagnant wages, high-profile corruption exposed in mainstream coverage): flag this as a REGIME-FATIGUE ELECTION. In regime-fatigue elections, reduce structural incumbency advantage estimates by 30% before computing fair value. This reflects the empirical pattern that structural advantages erode faster than polling captures when voter frustration crosses a threshold.
+
+### Correlated Hedge Pair Sizing
+If you hold YES on one outcome AND NO on the complementary outcome in the same election (e.g., "Orbán becomes PM" YES + "Magyar becomes PM" NO), treat both positions TOGETHER as one correlated exposure unit:
+- Combined notional = sum of both position sizes
+- Both positions cannot simultaneously win — the upside and downside are correlated, not independent
+- Cap the combined notional at $20 (2 positions × $10), not $20 per leg
+- In the concentration table, label these as "HEDGE PAIR — one correlated exposure" and count them as 2/2 (theme FULL)
+- Do NOT add a third position to the same election even if the third market looks mispriced — you are already fully exposed to the outcome
+
 STEP 1: Call get_positions. Then output a THEME CONCENTRATION TABLE — list every theme with ≥1 open position, showing count/max (e.g. "2028 US election: 3/2 FULL", "GTA VI: 2/2 FULL", "Hungary 2026 election: 1/2"). Any theme showing FULL must be skipped entirely. You MUST output this table before evaluating any market.
 STEP 2: For each market, check your theme concentration table first. If the market's theme is FULL, skip it immediately. Otherwise apply horizon discipline, closed market discipline, and edge check.
 STEP 3: If price differs from your fair probability by the required edge (accounting for sportsbook haircut if applicable), place a trade ($10 USDC). Call skip_all only if you have zero opinion on all markets.`
@@ -362,13 +400,13 @@ ${positionLines}
 
 CLOSE RULES — apply ALL that match, no thesis override allowed:
 1. Exit trigger condition has been met (e.g. specific price level hit, event occurred). Apply literally.
-2. Position is down >35% AND the fundamental thesis has materially weakened or been disproven (market structure changed, key assumption invalidated).
+2. Position is down >35% — HARD CLOSE. This is a programmatic rule enforced server-side; by the time you see this position it may already be closed. Do NOT override with thesis defense.
 3. Your side of the position is priced below 10% — HARD CLOSE. The market has strongly repriced against you. Do NOT override this with "thesis not disproven yet." At <10%, expected value of holding is near zero.
 4. Position is down >50% — HARD CLOSE regardless of thesis. Cut losses. No exceptions.
 5. You have 2+ open positions in the SAME market with the SAME outcome — close the NEWER entry (higher ts value) regardless of P&L. Duplicate same-outcome positions double exposure without incremental edge. Keep the original entry.
 6. Position is UP >25% from entry AND has been held >48h — CLOSE to lock in profits. The market has moved significantly in your favor; gains are now vulnerable to reversion. Use take_profit reason. Exception: if the resolution event is within 7 days AND the position is still clearly on the right side, you may hold until resolution.
 7. STALE POSITION: Position held >7 days AND price has moved <5% from entry AND resolution event is >30 days away — CLOSE to redeploy capital. A position that doesn't move over 7 days means the mispricing wasn't as large as estimated. Cut it, accept the small loss/gain, and redeploy to markets with active price movement.
-8. CONCENTRATION VIOLATION: Count open positions by underlying theme (the single real-world event that resolves all of them). Examples: "Will Jesus return before GTA VI", "Will BTC hit $1M before GTA VI", "Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI" all share the theme "GTA VI release date". Similarly "Will Spurs win NBA Finals", "Will OKC win NBA Finals", "Will Celtics win NBA Finals" all share the theme "2026 NBA Finals". IMPORTANT: All positions tied to the 2028 US election cycle share one theme — "2028 US election". This includes: 2028 Dem primary nominees (Newsom, etc.), 2028 Rep primary nominees (Vance, Rubio, etc.), and the 2028 general election winner — regardless of which stage of the race resolves each market. If you have 3+ positions in the same theme: close positions one by one (starting with the one whose current price is closest to 50/50) until you have ≤2 in that theme. If you have 4, you must close 2. If you have 5, close 3. Do NOT stop after closing just one if the theme still has 3+ positions. Apply this BEFORE checking other rules. This check requires the FULL position list — which is why Step 0 mandates calling get_positions first.
+8. CONCENTRATION VIOLATION: Count open positions by underlying theme (the single real-world event that resolves all of them). Examples: "Will Jesus return before GTA VI", "Will BTC hit $1M before GTA VI", "Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI" all share the theme "GTA VI release date". Similarly "Will Spurs win NBA Finals", "Will OKC win NBA Finals", "Will Celtics win NBA Finals" all share the theme "2026 NBA Finals". IMPORTANT: All positions tied to the 2028 US election cycle share one theme — "2028 US election". This includes: 2028 Dem primary nominees (Newsom, etc.), 2028 Rep primary nominees (Vance, Rubio, etc.), and the 2028 general election winner — regardless of which stage of the race resolves each market. IMPORTANT: All Russia-Ukraine conflict positions share one theme — "Russia-Ukraine conflict". This includes: Putin removal/survival, Zelenskyy removal/survival, ceasefire timing, territorial outcomes — any market that resolves based on how the Russia-Ukraine war progresses. If you have 3+ positions in the same theme: close positions one by one (starting with the one whose current price is closest to 50/50) until you have ≤2 in that theme. If you have 4, you must close 2. If you have 5, close 3. Do NOT stop after closing just one if the theme still has 3+ positions. Apply this BEFORE checking other rules. This check requires the FULL position list — which is why Step 0 mandates calling get_positions first.
 9. SPORTSBOOK THESIS DECAY: If the original reasoning cited a sportsbook cross-reference (e.g. "sportsbooks imply X%, Polymarket shows Y%") AND the position is currently down >20%: CLOSE immediately with reason "thesis_decayed". This is a mechanical rule — a -20% drawdown on a sportsbook arb trade is itself the signal that the cross-market gap has closed or the thesis was wrong. Do NOT attempt to re-estimate current sportsbook consensus or override based on "the sportsbook line is still there." The drawdown is the verdict. No exceptions.
 
 HOLD RULES: If NONE of the close rules apply and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).

package/src/position-monitor.ts

@@ -183,9 +183,9 @@ export class PositionMonitor {
     const hardStopClosed: string[] = []
     for (const candidate of reviewCandidates) {
       const isPriceBelowFloor = candidate.current_price <= 0.10
-      const isLargeEnoughLoss = candidate.gain_pct <= -0.50
+      const isLargeEnoughLoss = candidate.gain_pct <= -0.35
       if (isPriceBelowFloor || isLargeEnoughLoss) {
-        await this.executeHardStop(candidate, isPriceBelowFloor ? 'price_below_floor' : 'stop_loss_50pct')
+        await this.executeHardStop(candidate, isPriceBelowFloor ? 'price_below_floor' : 'stop_loss_35pct')
         hardStopClosed.push(candidate.market_id)
       }
     }

package/src/test/stress.ts

@@ -366,16 +366,16 @@ async function runHardStopTests(): Promise<void> {
     assert(isPriceBelowFloor, 'price=0.08 should trigger floor stop')
   })
 
-  await test('F2: loss = -50% triggers stop-loss', async () => {
-    const gain = -0.50
-    const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.50
-    assert(isLargeEnoughLoss, 'exactly -50% should trigger stop-loss')
+  await test('F2: loss = -35% triggers stop-loss', async () => {
+    const gain = -0.35
+    const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.35
+    assert(isLargeEnoughLoss, 'exactly -35% should trigger stop-loss')
   })
 
-  await test('F3: loss = -49.9% does NOT trigger stop-loss', async () => {
-    const gain = -0.499
-    const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.50
-    assert(!isLargeEnoughLoss, '-49.9% should NOT trigger stop-loss')
+  await test('F3: loss = -34.9% does NOT trigger stop-loss', async () => {
+    const gain = -0.349
+    const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.35
+    assert(!isLargeEnoughLoss, '-34.9% should NOT trigger stop-loss')
   })
 
   await test('F4: price = 0.10 triggers floor (boundary — off-by-one vs stated rule)', async () => {
@@ -387,12 +387,12 @@ async function runHardStopTests(): Promise<void> {
     console.log('\n    [NOTE] Boundary: price=0.10 triggers hard stop. Prompt says "<10%" but code uses "<=0.10".')
   })
 
-  await test('F5: price > 0.10 and loss < 50% — no hard stop', async () => {
+  await test('F5: price > 0.10 and loss < 35% — no hard stop', async () => {
     const price = 0.12
-    const gain = -0.40
+    const gain = -0.30
     const isPriceBelowFloor = price <= 0.10
-    const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.50
-    assert(!isPriceBelowFloor && !isLargeEnoughLoss, 'price=0.12, -40% should not trigger hard stop')
+    const isLargeEnoughLoss = gain <= -0.35
+    assert(!isPriceBelowFloor && !isLargeEnoughLoss, 'price=0.12, -30% should not trigger hard stop')
   })
 }