polly-gamba 1.0.37 → 1.0.38

package/dist/claude-trader.js

@@ -115,7 +115,7 @@ RULES:
 
 ## POSITION DISCIPLINE:
 - Max $100 per market (20% of $500 budget). The MCP enforces this — don't fight it.
-- To add to an existing position with the SAME outcome: (1) you MUST cite a specific new catalyst (news published in last 24h, not price movement), AND (2) the current price must be ≥20% below your last entry price (e.g. if you bought YES at 0.15, new entry only valid at ≤0.12). The MCP enforces this — attempts at a smaller discount will be rejected. Price dipping alone is NOT a catalyst. New information is a catalyst. CRITICAL: Sportsbook odds movement is NOT a valid new catalyst — if your original thesis cited sportsbook lines and the proposed add-on also cites updated sportsbook odds, that is the same bet twice. Only factual real-world events qualify (injury, official announcement, standings change, political development). Sportsbook-only re-entry is prohibited even with a large price discount.
+- Same-direction re-entry is NEVER allowed while a position is open. You CANNOT average down into an existing open position. The MCP enforces this hard block. If you still believe in the thesis after a price drop, close the existing position first, then re-enter fresh next scan.
 - exit_trigger is required on every trade. Be specific: "Exit when price hits 0.X" or "Exit when [specific news event]" — not "when narrative converges."
 - Call get_budget_status AND get_positions at the start of each scan to know available capital and your current open positions. get_positions returns {"positions": [...], "closed_markets": [...]}. You MUST review BOTH before trading to apply concentration AND closed-market discipline correctly.`
                 }

package/dist/lib/paper-trade.js

@@ -33,14 +33,12 @@ function validatePlaceOrder(params, openPositions) {
     if (sameMarketPositions.length > 0 && !params.new_catalyst) {
         return `Error: Position already exists for this market. Provide new_catalyst (specific new information from last 24h) to add.`;
     }
-    // Check 1b: Same-outcome re-entry requires ≥20% price improvement
+    // Check 1b: Same-outcome re-entry is NEVER allowed while position is open.
+    // Averaging down compounds losses (see: Wembanyama -$7.18 incident).
+    // Close the existing position first, then re-enter if still compelling.
     const sameOutcomePositions = sameMarketPositions.filter(p => String(p.outcome).toLowerCase() === String(params.outcome).toLowerCase());
     if (sameOutcomePositions.length > 0) {
-        const lastEntry = Math.max(...sameOutcomePositions.map(p => p.price || 0));
-        const requiredPrice = lastEntry * 0.80;
-        if (params.price > requiredPrice) {
-            return `Error: Re-entry blocked. Last ${params.outcome} entry at ${lastEntry.toFixed(4)}. Require price ≤ ${requiredPrice.toFixed(4)} (20% better) to add same-direction position. Current price ${params.price.toFixed(4)} is too close to last entry. Wait for a larger dislocation before averaging.`;
-        }
+        return `Error: Same-direction position already open for ${params.market_id} ${params.outcome}. Cannot average into an existing open position — this compounds losses. Close the current position first before re-entering.`;
     }
     // Check 2: $500 total budget cap
     const totalDeployed = openPositions.reduce((s, p) => s + (p.size_usdc || 0), 0);

package/dist/test/stress.js

@@ -182,29 +182,27 @@ async function runDuplicateTests() {
         assert(err !== null, 'expected same-market error for NO when YES exists');
         assert(err.includes('new_catalyst'), `expected new_catalyst required, got: ${err}`);
     });
-    await test('D3: re-entry with catalyst but <20% price discount — blocked', async () => {
+    await test('D3: same-outcome re-entry always blocked (even with catalyst, any discount)', async () => {
         const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })];
-        // 0.5 × 0.80 = 0.40; price 0.45 is not ≤ 0.40
         const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.45, new_catalyst: 'Breaking news' }, openPositions);
-        assert(err !== null, 'expected price discount error');
-        assert(err.includes('Re-entry blocked'), `expected Re-entry blocked, got: ${err}`);
-        assert(err.includes('0.4000'), `expected required price 0.4000, got: ${err}`);
+        assert(err !== null, 'expected same-direction block');
+        assert(err.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`);
     });
-    await test('D4: re-entry with catalyst AND ≥20% discount — allowed', async () => {
+    await test('D4: same-outcome re-entry blocked even with 24% discount + catalyst', async () => {
         const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })];
-        // 0.5 × 0.80 = 0.40; price 0.38 is ≤ 0.40 ✓
         const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.38, new_catalyst: 'Breaking news' }, openPositions);
-        assert(err === null, `expected success with 24% discount + catalyst, got: ${err}`);
+        assert(err !== null, `expected block on same-direction open position, got: ${err}`);
+        assert(err.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`);
     });
-    await test('D5: re-entry at exactly 20% discount (boundary) — allowed', async () => {
+    await test('D5: same-outcome re-entry at exactly 20% discount — blocked (no longer allowed)', async () => {
         const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })];
         const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.40, new_catalyst: 'News' }, openPositions);
-        assert(err === null, `expected success at exactly 0.40 (20% below 0.50), got: ${err}`);
+        assert(err !== null, `expected block: averaging down is never allowed, got: ${err}`);
     });
-    await test('D6: re-entry at 20% + epsilon above threshold — blocked', async () => {
+    await test('D6: same-outcome re-entry at any price — blocked', async () => {
         const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })];
-        const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.401, new_catalyst: 'News' }, openPositions);
-        assert(err !== null, `expected block at 0.401 (just above 0.40 threshold), got: ${err}`);
+        const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.10, new_catalyst: 'News' }, openPositions);
+        assert(err !== null, `expected block regardless of price, got: ${err}`);
     });
     await test('D7: opposite-outcome (NO) with catalyst — no price check needed', async () => {
         const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })];
@@ -378,25 +376,24 @@ async function runConcentrationTests() {
 }
 async function runTypeCoercionTests() {
     console.log('\n## I) Type Coercion — market_id string vs number');
-    await test('I1: numeric market_id in params matches string market_id in position', async () => {
+    await test('I1: numeric market_id in params matches string market_id in position — same-direction blocked', async () => {
         // Simulates Claude passing market_id as a number (e.g., 564166) while
         // Redis stores it as a string ("564166"). Without String() coercion,
-        // sameMarketPositions would be empty → 20% discount check bypassed.
+        // sameMarketPositions would be empty → same-direction block bypassed.
         const openPositions = [
             makePosition({ market_id: '564166', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.30, ts: 1 })
         ];
         const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 564166, outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.29, new_catalyst: 'New result' }, openPositions);
-        // 0.29 > 0.30 * 0.80 = 0.24 → should be blocked (not a 20% discount)
-        assert(err !== null, 'expected re-entry blocked: numeric market_id must match string in position');
-        assert(err.includes('Re-entry blocked'), `expected Re-entry blocked error, got: ${err}`);
+        assert(err !== null, 'expected same-direction block: numeric market_id must match string in position');
+        assert(err.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`);
     });
-    await test('I2: numeric market_id with sufficient discount is allowed', async () => {
+    await test('I2: numeric market_id same-direction re-entry always blocked regardless of discount', async () => {
         const openPositions = [
             makePosition({ market_id: '564166', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.30, ts: 1 })
         ];
         const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 564166, outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.23, new_catalyst: 'Sportsbook update' }, openPositions);
-        // 0.23 <= 0.30 * 0.80 = 0.24 → allowed (>20% discount)
-        assert(err === null, `expected success with 20%+ discount even with numeric market_id, got: ${err}`);
+        // Same-direction averaging is never allowed, any discount
+        assert(err !== null, `expected block on same-direction open position, got: ${err}`);
     });
 }
 // ─── Main ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "polly-gamba",
-  "version": "1.0.37",
+  "version": "1.0.38",
   "description": "Coinbase price signal → Claude brain → Polymarket CLOB execution",
   "main": "dist/index.js",
   "bin": {

package/service.log

@@ -2803,3 +2803,214 @@ npm warn deprecated prebuild-install@7.1.3: No longer maintained. Please contact
 [gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
 [gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
 [scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566142 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 562828 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559651 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 561975 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567561 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567687 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=3 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 562828 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 561974 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=5 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559652 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558936 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553866 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567689 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566142 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=4 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[signal] ETH down -0.50% @ $2,148.31 over 59s
+[signal] ETH down 0.50% @ $2,148.31
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[error] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553866 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567689 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566142 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 562828 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566188 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559651 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=5 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)

package/src/claude-trader.ts

@@ -132,7 +132,7 @@ RULES:
 
 ## POSITION DISCIPLINE:
 - Max $100 per market (20% of $500 budget). The MCP enforces this — don't fight it.
-- To add to an existing position with the SAME outcome: (1) you MUST cite a specific new catalyst (news published in last 24h, not price movement), AND (2) the current price must be ≥20% below your last entry price (e.g. if you bought YES at 0.15, new entry only valid at ≤0.12). The MCP enforces this — attempts at a smaller discount will be rejected. Price dipping alone is NOT a catalyst. New information is a catalyst. CRITICAL: Sportsbook odds movement is NOT a valid new catalyst — if your original thesis cited sportsbook lines and the proposed add-on also cites updated sportsbook odds, that is the same bet twice. Only factual real-world events qualify (injury, official announcement, standings change, political development). Sportsbook-only re-entry is prohibited even with a large price discount.
+- Same-direction re-entry is NEVER allowed while a position is open. You CANNOT average down into an existing open position. The MCP enforces this hard block. If you still believe in the thesis after a price drop, close the existing position first, then re-enter fresh next scan.
 - exit_trigger is required on every trade. Be specific: "Exit when price hits 0.X" or "Exit when [specific news event]" — not "when narrative converges."
 - Call get_budget_status AND get_positions at the start of each scan to know available capital and your current open positions. get_positions returns {"positions": [...], "closed_markets": [...]}. You MUST review BOTH before trading to apply concentration AND closed-market discipline correctly.`
         }

package/src/lib/paper-trade.ts

@@ -67,16 +67,14 @@ export function validatePlaceOrder(
     return `Error: Position already exists for this market. Provide new_catalyst (specific new information from last 24h) to add.`
   }
 
-  // Check 1b: Same-outcome re-entry requires ≥20% price improvement
+  // Check 1b: Same-outcome re-entry is NEVER allowed while position is open.
+  // Averaging down compounds losses (see: Wembanyama -$7.18 incident).
+  // Close the existing position first, then re-enter if still compelling.
   const sameOutcomePositions = sameMarketPositions.filter(p =>
     String(p.outcome).toLowerCase() === String(params.outcome).toLowerCase()
   )
   if (sameOutcomePositions.length > 0) {
-    const lastEntry = Math.max(...sameOutcomePositions.map(p => p.price || 0))
-    const requiredPrice = lastEntry * 0.80
-    if (params.price > requiredPrice) {
-      return `Error: Re-entry blocked. Last ${params.outcome} entry at ${lastEntry.toFixed(4)}. Require price ≤ ${requiredPrice.toFixed(4)} (20% better) to add same-direction position. Current price ${params.price.toFixed(4)} is too close to last entry. Wait for a larger dislocation before averaging.`
-    }
+    return `Error: Same-direction position already open for ${params.market_id} ${params.outcome}. Cannot average into an existing open position — this compounds losses. Close the current position first before re-entering.`
   }
 
   // Check 2: $500 total budget cap

package/src/test/stress.ts

@@ -234,44 +234,42 @@ async function runDuplicateTests(): Promise<void> {
     assert(err!.includes('new_catalyst'), `expected new_catalyst required, got: ${err}`)
   })
 
-  await test('D3: re-entry with catalyst but <20% price discount — blocked', async () => {
+  await test('D3: same-outcome re-entry always blocked (even with catalyst, any discount)', async () => {
     const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })]
-    // 0.5 × 0.80 = 0.40; price 0.45 is not ≤ 0.40
     const err = validatePlaceOrder(
       { market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.45, new_catalyst: 'Breaking news' },
       openPositions
     )
-    assert(err !== null, 'expected price discount error')
-    assert(err!.includes('Re-entry blocked'), `expected Re-entry blocked, got: ${err}`)
-    assert(err!.includes('0.4000'), `expected required price 0.4000, got: ${err}`)
+    assert(err !== null, 'expected same-direction block')
+    assert(err!.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`)
   })
 
-  await test('D4: re-entry with catalyst AND ≥20% discount — allowed', async () => {
+  await test('D4: same-outcome re-entry blocked even with 24% discount + catalyst', async () => {
     const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })]
-    // 0.5 × 0.80 = 0.40; price 0.38 is ≤ 0.40 ✓
     const err = validatePlaceOrder(
       { market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.38, new_catalyst: 'Breaking news' },
       openPositions
     )
-    assert(err === null, `expected success with 24% discount + catalyst, got: ${err}`)
+    assert(err !== null, `expected block on same-direction open position, got: ${err}`)
+    assert(err!.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`)
   })
 
-  await test('D5: re-entry at exactly 20% discount (boundary) — allowed', async () => {
+  await test('D5: same-outcome re-entry at exactly 20% discount — blocked (no longer allowed)', async () => {
     const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })]
     const err = validatePlaceOrder(
       { market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.40, new_catalyst: 'News' },
       openPositions
     )
-    assert(err === null, `expected success at exactly 0.40 (20% below 0.50), got: ${err}`)
+    assert(err !== null, `expected block: averaging down is never allowed, got: ${err}`)
   })
 
-  await test('D6: re-entry at 20% + epsilon above threshold — blocked', async () => {
+  await test('D6: same-outcome re-entry at any price — blocked', async () => {
     const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })]
     const err = validatePlaceOrder(
-      { market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.401, new_catalyst: 'News' },
+      { market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.10, new_catalyst: 'News' },
       openPositions
     )
-    assert(err !== null, `expected block at 0.401 (just above 0.40 threshold), got: ${err}`)
+    assert(err !== null, `expected block regardless of price, got: ${err}`)
   })
 
   await test('D7: opposite-outcome (NO) with catalyst — no price check needed', async () => {
@@ -511,10 +509,10 @@ async function runConcentrationTests(): Promise<void> {
 async function runTypeCoercionTests(): Promise<void> {
   console.log('\n## I) Type Coercion — market_id string vs number')
 
-  await test('I1: numeric market_id in params matches string market_id in position', async () => {
+  await test('I1: numeric market_id in params matches string market_id in position — same-direction blocked', async () => {
     // Simulates Claude passing market_id as a number (e.g., 564166) while
     // Redis stores it as a string ("564166"). Without String() coercion,
-    // sameMarketPositions would be empty → 20% discount check bypassed.
+    // sameMarketPositions would be empty → same-direction block bypassed.
     const openPositions = [
       makePosition({ market_id: '564166', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.30, ts: 1 })
     ]
@@ -522,12 +520,11 @@ async function runTypeCoercionTests(): Promise<void> {
       { market_id: 564166 as any, outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.29, new_catalyst: 'New result' },
       openPositions
     )
-    // 0.29 > 0.30 * 0.80 = 0.24 → should be blocked (not a 20% discount)
-    assert(err !== null, 'expected re-entry blocked: numeric market_id must match string in position')
-    assert(err!.includes('Re-entry blocked'), `expected Re-entry blocked error, got: ${err}`)
+    assert(err !== null, 'expected same-direction block: numeric market_id must match string in position')
+    assert(err!.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`)
   })
 
-  await test('I2: numeric market_id with sufficient discount is allowed', async () => {
+  await test('I2: numeric market_id same-direction re-entry always blocked regardless of discount', async () => {
     const openPositions = [
       makePosition({ market_id: '564166', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.30, ts: 1 })
     ]
@@ -535,8 +532,8 @@ async function runTypeCoercionTests(): Promise<void> {
       { market_id: 564166 as any, outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.23, new_catalyst: 'Sportsbook update' },
       openPositions
     )
-    // 0.23 <= 0.30 * 0.80 = 0.24 → allowed (>20% discount)
-    assert(err === null, `expected success with 20%+ discount even with numeric market_id, got: ${err}`)
+    // Same-direction averaging is never allowed, any discount
+    assert(err !== null, `expected block on same-direction open position, got: ${err}`)
   })
 }