polly-gamba 1.0.34 → 1.0.38

package/dist/claude-trader.js

@@ -115,7 +115,7 @@ RULES:
 
 ## POSITION DISCIPLINE:
 - Max $100 per market (20% of $500 budget). The MCP enforces this — don't fight it.
-- To add to an existing position with the SAME outcome: (1) you MUST cite a specific new catalyst (news published in last 24h, not price movement), AND (2) the current price must be ≥20% below your last entry price (e.g. if you bought YES at 0.15, new entry only valid at ≤0.12). The MCP enforces this — attempts at a smaller discount will be rejected. Price dipping alone is NOT a catalyst. New information is a catalyst.
+- Same-direction re-entry is NEVER allowed while a position is open. You CANNOT average down into an existing open position. The MCP enforces this hard block. If you still believe in the thesis after a price drop, close the existing position first, then re-enter fresh next scan.
 - exit_trigger is required on every trade. Be specific: "Exit when price hits 0.X" or "Exit when [specific news event]" — not "when narrative converges."
 - Call get_budget_status AND get_positions at the start of each scan to know available capital and your current open positions. get_positions returns {"positions": [...], "closed_markets": [...]}. You MUST review BOTH before trading to apply concentration AND closed-market discipline correctly.`
                 }

package/dist/lib/paper-trade.js

@@ -28,19 +28,17 @@ function validatePlaceOrder(params, openPositions) {
         params.price > 1) {
         return `Error: price must be in range (0, 1]. Got: ${params.price}`;
     }
-    const sameMarketPositions = openPositions.filter(p => p.market_id === params.market_id);
+    const sameMarketPositions = openPositions.filter(p => String(p.market_id) === String(params.market_id));
     // Check 1: Existing position for same market requires new_catalyst
     if (sameMarketPositions.length > 0 && !params.new_catalyst) {
         return `Error: Position already exists for this market. Provide new_catalyst (specific new information from last 24h) to add.`;
     }
-    // Check 1b: Same-outcome re-entry requires ≥20% price improvement
+    // Check 1b: Same-outcome re-entry is NEVER allowed while position is open.
+    // Averaging down compounds losses (see: Wembanyama -$7.18 incident).
+    // Close the existing position first, then re-enter if still compelling.
     const sameOutcomePositions = sameMarketPositions.filter(p => String(p.outcome).toLowerCase() === String(params.outcome).toLowerCase());
     if (sameOutcomePositions.length > 0) {
-        const lastEntry = Math.max(...sameOutcomePositions.map(p => p.price || 0));
-        const requiredPrice = lastEntry * 0.80;
-        if (params.price > requiredPrice) {
-            return `Error: Re-entry blocked. Last ${params.outcome} entry at ${lastEntry.toFixed(4)}. Require price ≤ ${requiredPrice.toFixed(4)} (20% better) to add same-direction position. Current price ${params.price.toFixed(4)} is too close to last entry. Wait for a larger dislocation before averaging.`;
-        }
+        return `Error: Same-direction position already open for ${params.market_id} ${params.outcome}. Cannot average into an existing open position — this compounds losses. Close the current position first before re-entering.`;
     }
     // Check 2: $500 total budget cap
     const totalDeployed = openPositions.reduce((s, p) => s + (p.size_usdc || 0), 0);

package/dist/mcp-server.js

@@ -126,19 +126,21 @@ server.setRequestHandler(types_js_1.CallToolRequestSchema, async (req) => {
                 return false;
             return !closedIds.has(`${p.market_id}_${p.outcome}_${p.ts}`);
         });
+        // Normalize market_id to string to prevent type-mismatch bypasses
+        const marketId = String(a.market_id);
         // Block re-entry into previously closed market+outcome combos
-        const marketOutcomePrefix = `${a.market_id}_${a.outcome}_`;
+        const marketOutcomePrefix = `${marketId}_${a.outcome}_`;
         const wasClosedBefore = Array.from(closedIds).some(id => id.startsWith(marketOutcomePrefix));
         if (wasClosedBefore) {
-            return { content: [{ type: 'text', text: `Error: Re-entry blocked. This market+outcome (${a.market_id} ${a.outcome}) was previously closed. Polly-gamba does not re-enter previously exited positions to prevent repeated losses on the same bet.` }] };
+            return { content: [{ type: 'text', text: `Error: Re-entry blocked. This market+outcome (${marketId} ${a.outcome}) was previously closed. Polly-gamba does not re-enter previously exited positions to prevent repeated losses on the same bet.` }] };
         }
         // Validate using extracted business logic (includes input validation + budget checks)
-        const validationError = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: a.market_id, outcome: a.outcome, size_usdc: a.size_usdc, price: a.price, new_catalyst: a.new_catalyst }, openPositions);
+        const validationError = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: marketId, outcome: a.outcome, size_usdc: a.size_usdc, price: a.price, new_catalyst: a.new_catalyst }, openPositions);
         if (validationError) {
             return { content: [{ type: 'text', text: validationError }] };
         }
         const position = {
-            market_id: a.market_id,
+            market_id: marketId,
             market_question: a.market_question,
             token_id: a.token_id,
             outcome: a.outcome,
@@ -230,7 +232,7 @@ server.setRequestHandler(types_js_1.CallToolRequestSchema, async (req) => {
         // Find matching open position — must check BOTH status field AND closedIds set
         // (hard stops add to closedIds but cannot update the list entry's status field)
         const match = positions.find((p) => {
-            if (p.market_id !== a.market_id)
+            if (String(p.market_id) !== String(a.market_id))
                 return false;
             if (p.outcome?.toLowerCase() !== String(a.outcome).toLowerCase())
                 return false;

package/dist/position-monitor.js

@@ -71,20 +71,34 @@ class PositionMonitor {
         }
         // Build review candidates with current price data for Claude
         const reviewCandidates = [];
-        // Track positions with no price data that have been held >24h — likely resolved/delisted
+        // Track positions with no price data that have been CONTINUOUSLY unavailable for >24h — likely resolved/delisted
+        // We use a Redis hash to record when price data first went missing per position key.
+        // A transient API outage should NOT trigger closure — only sustained unavailability counts.
         const noPriceDataStale = [];
+        const noPriceSinceKey = `${this.prefix}:no_price_since`;
         for (const pos of toCheck) {
             const currentPrice = marketPriceCache.get(`${pos.market_id}|${pos.outcome}`) ?? null;
+            const posKey = `${pos.market_id}_${pos.outcome}_${pos.ts}`;
             if (!currentPrice) {
-                const hoursHeld = (Date.now() - pos.ts) / (1000 * 60 * 60);
-                if (hoursHeld >= 24) {
-                    noPriceDataStale.push(pos);
+                // Record when we first noticed missing price data for this position
+                const existing = await this.redis.hget(noPriceSinceKey, posKey);
+                if (!existing) {
+                    await this.redis.hset(noPriceSinceKey, posKey, String(Date.now()));
+                    console.warn(`[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for ${pos.market_id} ${pos.outcome} — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)`);
                 }
                 else {
-                    console.warn(`[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for ${pos.market_id} ${pos.outcome} — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)`);
+                    const hoursMissing = (Date.now() - parseInt(existing, 10)) / (1000 * 60 * 60);
+                    if (hoursMissing >= 24) {
+                        noPriceDataStale.push(pos);
+                    }
+                    else {
+                        console.warn(`[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for ${pos.market_id} ${pos.outcome} — missing ${hoursMissing.toFixed(1)}h (closes after 24h continuous)`);
+                    }
                 }
                 continue;
             }
+            // Price data available — clear any no-price-since tracker
+            await this.redis.hdel(noPriceSinceKey, posKey);
             const entryPrice = pos.price;
             const gain = (currentPrice.price - entryPrice) / entryPrice;
             const hoursToEnd = (new Date(currentPrice.endDate).getTime() - Date.now()) / (1000 * 60 * 60);
@@ -115,11 +129,12 @@ class PositionMonitor {
                 continue;
             const closed = { ...pos, status: 'closed', exit_price: pos.price, pnl: 0, closed_at: Date.now(), reason: 'market_unavailable' };
             await this.redis.sadd(`${this.prefix}:closed_ids`, posKey);
+            await this.redis.hdel(noPriceSinceKey, posKey); // clean up tracker
             await this.redis.lpush(`${this.prefix}:closed_positions`, JSON.stringify(closed));
             await this.redis.ltrim(`${this.prefix}:closed_positions`, 0, 9999);
             await this.redis.lpush(`${this.prefix}:log`, JSON.stringify({ type: 'position_closed', data: closed, ts: Date.now(), trigger: 'market_unavailable' }));
             await this.redis.ltrim(`${this.prefix}:log`, 0, 9999);
-            console.log(`[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "${String(pos.market_question).slice(0, 50)}" ${pos.outcome} — no price data for >24h, freeing capital`);
+            console.log(`[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "${String(pos.market_question).slice(0, 50)}" ${pos.outcome} — no price data for >24h continuously, freeing capital`);
         }
         if (noPriceDataStale.length > 0) {
             console.log(`[position-monitor] freed ${noPriceDataStale.length} stale no-price-data positions`);

package/dist/test/stress.js

@@ -182,29 +182,27 @@ async function runDuplicateTests() {
         assert(err !== null, 'expected same-market error for NO when YES exists');
         assert(err.includes('new_catalyst'), `expected new_catalyst required, got: ${err}`);
     });
-    await test('D3: re-entry with catalyst but <20% price discount — blocked', async () => {
+    await test('D3: same-outcome re-entry always blocked (even with catalyst, any discount)', async () => {
         const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })];
-        // 0.5 × 0.80 = 0.40; price 0.45 is not ≤ 0.40
         const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.45, new_catalyst: 'Breaking news' }, openPositions);
-        assert(err !== null, 'expected price discount error');
-        assert(err.includes('Re-entry blocked'), `expected Re-entry blocked, got: ${err}`);
-        assert(err.includes('0.4000'), `expected required price 0.4000, got: ${err}`);
+        assert(err !== null, 'expected same-direction block');
+        assert(err.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`);
     });
-    await test('D4: re-entry with catalyst AND ≥20% discount — allowed', async () => {
+    await test('D4: same-outcome re-entry blocked even with 24% discount + catalyst', async () => {
         const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })];
-        // 0.5 × 0.80 = 0.40; price 0.38 is ≤ 0.40 ✓
         const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.38, new_catalyst: 'Breaking news' }, openPositions);
-        assert(err === null, `expected success with 24% discount + catalyst, got: ${err}`);
+        assert(err !== null, `expected block on same-direction open position, got: ${err}`);
+        assert(err.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`);
     });
-    await test('D5: re-entry at exactly 20% discount (boundary) — allowed', async () => {
+    await test('D5: same-outcome re-entry at exactly 20% discount — blocked (no longer allowed)', async () => {
         const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })];
         const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.40, new_catalyst: 'News' }, openPositions);
-        assert(err === null, `expected success at exactly 0.40 (20% below 0.50), got: ${err}`);
+        assert(err !== null, `expected block: averaging down is never allowed, got: ${err}`);
     });
-    await test('D6: re-entry at 20% + epsilon above threshold — blocked', async () => {
+    await test('D6: same-outcome re-entry at any price — blocked', async () => {
         const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })];
-        const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.401, new_catalyst: 'News' }, openPositions);
-        assert(err !== null, `expected block at 0.401 (just above 0.40 threshold), got: ${err}`);
+        const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.10, new_catalyst: 'News' }, openPositions);
+        assert(err !== null, `expected block regardless of price, got: ${err}`);
     });
     await test('D7: opposite-outcome (NO) with catalyst — no price check needed', async () => {
         const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })];
@@ -376,6 +374,28 @@ async function runConcentrationTests() {
         assert(err.includes('Budget cap'), `expected Budget cap error (not market cap), got: ${err}`);
     });
 }
+async function runTypeCoercionTests() {
+    console.log('\n## I) Type Coercion — market_id string vs number');
+    await test('I1: numeric market_id in params matches string market_id in position — same-direction blocked', async () => {
+        // Simulates Claude passing market_id as a number (e.g., 564166) while
+        // Redis stores it as a string ("564166"). Without String() coercion,
+        // sameMarketPositions would be empty → same-direction block bypassed.
+        const openPositions = [
+            makePosition({ market_id: '564166', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.30, ts: 1 })
+        ];
+        const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 564166, outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.29, new_catalyst: 'New result' }, openPositions);
+        assert(err !== null, 'expected same-direction block: numeric market_id must match string in position');
+        assert(err.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`);
+    });
+    await test('I2: numeric market_id same-direction re-entry always blocked regardless of discount', async () => {
+        const openPositions = [
+            makePosition({ market_id: '564166', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.30, ts: 1 })
+        ];
+        const err = (0, paper_trade_1.validatePlaceOrder)({ market_id: 564166, outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.23, new_catalyst: 'Sportsbook update' }, openPositions);
+        // Same-direction averaging is never allowed, any discount
+        assert(err !== null, `expected block on same-direction open position, got: ${err}`);
+    });
+}
 // ─── Main ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 async function main() {
     console.log('\n[stress] polly-gamba paper trading system — stress tests');
@@ -389,6 +409,7 @@ async function main() {
     await runHardStopTests();
     await runDoubleCloseBugTests();
     await runConcentrationTests();
+    await runTypeCoercionTests();
     console.log(`\n[stress] ─── Results ─── ${passed} passed, ${failed} failed\n`);
     if (bugReport.length > 0) {
         console.log('[stress] Bug findings:');

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "polly-gamba",
-  "version": "1.0.34",
+  "version": "1.0.38",
   "description": "Coinbase price signal → Claude brain → Polymarket CLOB execution",
   "main": "dist/index.js",
   "bin": {

package/service.log

@@ -2469,3 +2469,548 @@ npm warn deprecated prebuild-install@7.1.3: No longer maintained. Please contact
 [position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 562828 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
 [position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559651 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
 [position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=3 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 20 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=5 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 20 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Arsenal win the 2025-26 Champions League?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tourna" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] freed 6 stale no-price-data positions
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=3 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presiden" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions Leagu" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Xi Jinping out before 2027?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] freed 6 stale no-price-data positions
+[position-monitor] checked=18 review_candidates=3 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premi" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Ele" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican president" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidenti" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter M" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor " YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Pri" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] freed 11 stale no-price-data positions
+[position-monitor] checked=12 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,146.9 over 55s
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,146.9
+[match] 20 markets for ETH signal
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 18 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[signal] BTC up 0.50% @ $70,106.04 over 14s
+[signal] BTC up 0.50% @ $70,106.04
+[match] 1 markets for BTC signal
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,164.32 over 9s
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,164.32
+[match] 20 markets for ETH signal
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 18 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 19 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 21 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 20 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 20 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 18 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Arsenal win the 2025-26 Champions League?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tourna" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Xi Jinping out before 2027?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Ele" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican president" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidenti" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter M" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor " YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Pri" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] freed 15 stale no-price-data positions
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=2 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 18 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=9 review_candidates=2 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[scan] 18 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presiden" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premi" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] freed 6 stale no-price-data positions
+[position-monitor] checked=9 review_candidates=1 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions Leagu" NO — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?" YES — no price data for >24h, freeing capital
+[position-monitor] freed 2 stale no-price-data positions
+[position-monitor] checked=3 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,155.82 over 60s
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,155.82
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 484 markets (filtered from 500)
+[match] 20 markets for ETH signal
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,156.26 over 39s
+[signal] ETH up 0.50% @ $2,156.26
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 484 markets (filtered from 500)
+[match] 20 markets for ETH signal
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[signal] ETH down -0.50% @ $2,148 over 60s
+[signal] ETH down 0.50% @ $2,148
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[error] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=1 review_candidates=0 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 493 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566142 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 562828 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559651 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 561975 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567561 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567687 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=3 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 562828 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 561974 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=5 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553830 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559652 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558936 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553866 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567689 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566142 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=4 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[signal] ETH down -0.50% @ $2,148.31 over 59s
+[signal] ETH down 0.50% @ $2,148.31
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[error] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 558934 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 553866 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 567689 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566142 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 562828 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566188 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 559651 NO — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=5 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 15 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)

package/src/claude-trader.ts

@@ -132,7 +132,7 @@ RULES:
 
 ## POSITION DISCIPLINE:
 - Max $100 per market (20% of $500 budget). The MCP enforces this — don't fight it.
-- To add to an existing position with the SAME outcome: (1) you MUST cite a specific new catalyst (news published in last 24h, not price movement), AND (2) the current price must be ≥20% below your last entry price (e.g. if you bought YES at 0.15, new entry only valid at ≤0.12). The MCP enforces this — attempts at a smaller discount will be rejected. Price dipping alone is NOT a catalyst. New information is a catalyst. CRITICAL: Sportsbook odds movement is NOT a valid new catalyst — if your original thesis cited sportsbook lines and the proposed add-on also cites updated sportsbook odds, that is the same bet twice. Only factual real-world events qualify (injury, official announcement, standings change, political development). Sportsbook-only re-entry is prohibited even with a large price discount.
+- Same-direction re-entry is NEVER allowed while a position is open. You CANNOT average down into an existing open position. The MCP enforces this hard block. If you still believe in the thesis after a price drop, close the existing position first, then re-enter fresh next scan.
 - exit_trigger is required on every trade. Be specific: "Exit when price hits 0.X" or "Exit when [specific news event]" — not "when narrative converges."
 - Call get_budget_status AND get_positions at the start of each scan to know available capital and your current open positions. get_positions returns {"positions": [...], "closed_markets": [...]}. You MUST review BOTH before trading to apply concentration AND closed-market discipline correctly.`
         }

package/src/lib/paper-trade.ts

@@ -67,16 +67,14 @@ export function validatePlaceOrder(
     return `Error: Position already exists for this market. Provide new_catalyst (specific new information from last 24h) to add.`
   }
 
-  // Check 1b: Same-outcome re-entry requires ≥20% price improvement
+  // Check 1b: Same-outcome re-entry is NEVER allowed while position is open.
+  // Averaging down compounds losses (see: Wembanyama -$7.18 incident).
+  // Close the existing position first, then re-enter if still compelling.
   const sameOutcomePositions = sameMarketPositions.filter(p =>
     String(p.outcome).toLowerCase() === String(params.outcome).toLowerCase()
   )
   if (sameOutcomePositions.length > 0) {
-    const lastEntry = Math.max(...sameOutcomePositions.map(p => p.price || 0))
-    const requiredPrice = lastEntry * 0.80
-    if (params.price > requiredPrice) {
-      return `Error: Re-entry blocked. Last ${params.outcome} entry at ${lastEntry.toFixed(4)}. Require price ≤ ${requiredPrice.toFixed(4)} (20% better) to add same-direction position. Current price ${params.price.toFixed(4)} is too close to last entry. Wait for a larger dislocation before averaging.`
-    }
+    return `Error: Same-direction position already open for ${params.market_id} ${params.outcome}. Cannot average into an existing open position — this compounds losses. Close the current position first before re-entering.`
   }
 
   // Check 2: $500 total budget cap

package/src/position-monitor.ts

@@ -106,20 +106,34 @@ export class PositionMonitor {
       reasoning?: string
     }> = []
 
-    // Track positions with no price data that have been held >24h — likely resolved/delisted
+    // Track positions with no price data that have been CONTINUOUSLY unavailable for >24h — likely resolved/delisted
+    // We use a Redis hash to record when price data first went missing per position key.
+    // A transient API outage should NOT trigger closure — only sustained unavailability counts.
     const noPriceDataStale: Position[] = []
+    const noPriceSinceKey = `${this.prefix}:no_price_since`
     for (const pos of toCheck) {
       const currentPrice = marketPriceCache.get(`${pos.market_id}|${pos.outcome}`) ?? null
+      const posKey = `${pos.market_id}_${pos.outcome}_${pos.ts}`
       if (!currentPrice) {
-        const hoursHeld = (Date.now() - pos.ts) / (1000 * 60 * 60)
-        if (hoursHeld >= 24) {
-          noPriceDataStale.push(pos)
+        // Record when we first noticed missing price data for this position
+        const existing = await this.redis.hget(noPriceSinceKey, posKey)
+        if (!existing) {
+          await this.redis.hset(noPriceSinceKey, posKey, String(Date.now()))
+          console.warn(`[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for ${pos.market_id} ${pos.outcome} — first miss recorded, watching (market may be resolved or delisted)`)
         } else {
-          console.warn(`[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for ${pos.market_id} ${pos.outcome} — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)`)
+          const hoursMissing = (Date.now() - parseInt(existing, 10)) / (1000 * 60 * 60)
+          if (hoursMissing >= 24) {
+            noPriceDataStale.push(pos)
+          } else {
+            console.warn(`[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for ${pos.market_id} ${pos.outcome} — missing ${hoursMissing.toFixed(1)}h (closes after 24h continuous)`)
+          }
         }
         continue
       }
 
+      // Price data available — clear any no-price-since tracker
+      await this.redis.hdel(noPriceSinceKey, posKey)
+
       const entryPrice = pos.price
       const gain = (currentPrice.price - entryPrice) / entryPrice
       const hoursToEnd = (new Date(currentPrice.endDate).getTime() - Date.now()) / (1000 * 60 * 60)
@@ -153,11 +167,12 @@ export class PositionMonitor {
 
       const closed = { ...pos, status: 'closed', exit_price: pos.price, pnl: 0, closed_at: Date.now(), reason: 'market_unavailable' }
       await this.redis.sadd(`${this.prefix}:closed_ids`, posKey)
+      await this.redis.hdel(noPriceSinceKey, posKey)  // clean up tracker
       await this.redis.lpush(`${this.prefix}:closed_positions`, JSON.stringify(closed))
       await this.redis.ltrim(`${this.prefix}:closed_positions`, 0, 9999)
       await this.redis.lpush(`${this.prefix}:log`, JSON.stringify({ type: 'position_closed', data: closed, ts: Date.now(), trigger: 'market_unavailable' }))
       await this.redis.ltrim(`${this.prefix}:log`, 0, 9999)
-      console.log(`[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "${String(pos.market_question).slice(0, 50)}" ${pos.outcome} — no price data for >24h, freeing capital`)
+      console.log(`[position-monitor] CLOSED [market_unavailable] "${String(pos.market_question).slice(0, 50)}" ${pos.outcome} — no price data for >24h continuously, freeing capital`)
     }
     if (noPriceDataStale.length > 0) {
       console.log(`[position-monitor] freed ${noPriceDataStale.length} stale no-price-data positions`)

package/src/test/stress.ts

@@ -234,44 +234,42 @@ async function runDuplicateTests(): Promise<void> {
     assert(err!.includes('new_catalyst'), `expected new_catalyst required, got: ${err}`)
   })
 
-  await test('D3: re-entry with catalyst but <20% price discount — blocked', async () => {
+  await test('D3: same-outcome re-entry always blocked (even with catalyst, any discount)', async () => {
     const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })]
-    // 0.5 × 0.80 = 0.40; price 0.45 is not ≤ 0.40
     const err = validatePlaceOrder(
       { market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.45, new_catalyst: 'Breaking news' },
       openPositions
     )
-    assert(err !== null, 'expected price discount error')
-    assert(err!.includes('Re-entry blocked'), `expected Re-entry blocked, got: ${err}`)
-    assert(err!.includes('0.4000'), `expected required price 0.4000, got: ${err}`)
+    assert(err !== null, 'expected same-direction block')
+    assert(err!.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`)
   })
 
-  await test('D4: re-entry with catalyst AND ≥20% discount — allowed', async () => {
+  await test('D4: same-outcome re-entry blocked even with 24% discount + catalyst', async () => {
     const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })]
-    // 0.5 × 0.80 = 0.40; price 0.38 is ≤ 0.40 ✓
     const err = validatePlaceOrder(
       { market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.38, new_catalyst: 'Breaking news' },
       openPositions
     )
-    assert(err === null, `expected success with 24% discount + catalyst, got: ${err}`)
+    assert(err !== null, `expected block on same-direction open position, got: ${err}`)
+    assert(err!.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`)
   })
 
-  await test('D5: re-entry at exactly 20% discount (boundary) — allowed', async () => {
+  await test('D5: same-outcome re-entry at exactly 20% discount — blocked (no longer allowed)', async () => {
     const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })]
     const err = validatePlaceOrder(
       { market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.40, new_catalyst: 'News' },
       openPositions
     )
-    assert(err === null, `expected success at exactly 0.40 (20% below 0.50), got: ${err}`)
+    assert(err !== null, `expected block: averaging down is never allowed, got: ${err}`)
   })
 
-  await test('D6: re-entry at 20% + epsilon above threshold — blocked', async () => {
+  await test('D6: same-outcome re-entry at any price — blocked', async () => {
     const openPositions = [makePosition({ market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.5 })]
     const err = validatePlaceOrder(
-      { market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.401, new_catalyst: 'News' },
+      { market_id: 'dup_mkt', outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.10, new_catalyst: 'News' },
       openPositions
     )
-    assert(err !== null, `expected block at 0.401 (just above 0.40 threshold), got: ${err}`)
+    assert(err !== null, `expected block regardless of price, got: ${err}`)
   })
 
   await test('D7: opposite-outcome (NO) with catalyst — no price check needed', async () => {
@@ -508,6 +506,37 @@ async function runConcentrationTests(): Promise<void> {
   })
 }
 
+async function runTypeCoercionTests(): Promise<void> {
+  console.log('\n## I) Type Coercion — market_id string vs number')
+
+  await test('I1: numeric market_id in params matches string market_id in position — same-direction blocked', async () => {
+    // Simulates Claude passing market_id as a number (e.g., 564166) while
+    // Redis stores it as a string ("564166"). Without String() coercion,
+    // sameMarketPositions would be empty → same-direction block bypassed.
+    const openPositions = [
+      makePosition({ market_id: '564166', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.30, ts: 1 })
+    ]
+    const err = validatePlaceOrder(
+      { market_id: 564166 as any, outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.29, new_catalyst: 'New result' },
+      openPositions
+    )
+    assert(err !== null, 'expected same-direction block: numeric market_id must match string in position')
+    assert(err!.includes('Same-direction position already open'), `expected same-direction error, got: ${err}`)
+  })
+
+  await test('I2: numeric market_id same-direction re-entry always blocked regardless of discount', async () => {
+    const openPositions = [
+      makePosition({ market_id: '564166', outcome: 'YES', price: 0.30, ts: 1 })
+    ]
+    const err = validatePlaceOrder(
+      { market_id: 564166 as any, outcome: 'YES', size_usdc: 10, price: 0.23, new_catalyst: 'Sportsbook update' },
+      openPositions
+    )
+    // Same-direction averaging is never allowed, any discount
+    assert(err !== null, `expected block on same-direction open position, got: ${err}`)
+  })
+}
+
 // ─── Main ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 async function main(): Promise<void> {
@@ -523,6 +552,7 @@ async function main(): Promise<void> {
   await runHardStopTests()
   await runDoubleCloseBugTests()
   await runConcentrationTests()
+  await runTypeCoercionTests()
 
   console.log(`\n[stress] ─── Results ─── ${passed} passed, ${failed} failed\n`)